CVE 434 – Construction Planning

PROGRAM EVALUATION AND REVIEW TECHNIQUE

(PERT)
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

PERT

 The program evaluation and review technique (PERT) is used to estimate

project duration when individual activity duration estimates are highly
uncertain.
 PERT applies the CPM to a weighted-average duration estimate.
 PERT is considered a probabilistic, or stochastic, method.
 The objective is to devise a method that predicts the completion date of a
project with a certain likelihood using the theory of probability.
 Note: Some of the information discussed in this chapter requires basic
knowledge of statistics.
METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

Statistics Summary
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

DATA DISTRIBUTION

Reference: https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-normal-distribution.html
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

DATA DISTRIBUTION

heights of people
iq scores
errors in measurements
blood pressure
points on a test
Reference: https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-normal-distribution.html salaries
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

In statistics  Normal curve

In social sciences  Bell curve
In physcis Gaussian distribution

Reference: https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-normal-distribution.html
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

STANDARD DEVIATION CALCULATION

 Variance  The average of the squared differences from the Mean

 Standard Deviation  the square root of the Variance

Measured Heights

Mean calculated

Reference: http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-deviation.html
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

STANDARD DEVIATION CALCULATION

 Variance  The average of the squared differences from the Mean

 Standard Deviation  the square root of the Variance

Difference of each
measurement to
the mean

Reference: http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-deviation.html
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

STANDARD DEVIATION CALCULATION

 Variance  The average of the squared differences from the Mean

 Standard Deviation  the square root of the Variance

You obtain a range

of data with its
probability

Reference: http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-deviation.html
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

STANDARD DEVIATION

 Standard deviation is used to indicate how the observations in a sample spread

out around the mean
 Small standard deviation  data is tightly clustered
 Larger standard deviation  flatter/wider normal distribution
The
Standard
Normal
Distribution

Reference: https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-normal-distribution.html
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

68.3% LIKELY

VERY LIKELY
95.5%

YOU SHOULD
KNOW THESE
PROBABILITIES.
ALMOST NOT PROVIDED
CERTAINLY IN THE EXAM!
99%

Reference: https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-normal-distribution.html
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 What about the possibilities of mid-values?

Z table for
percentages
under the curve

Applicable for
positive z
values!
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
X Z

(Z – 0) / 1 = (X – µ) / Ϭ
Z = (X – µ) / Ϭ
Reference: https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-normal-distribution.html
METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

PERT
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

PERT VS. CPM

 Critical Path Method (CPM) has a deterministic approach, which requires an

accurate knowledge of “duration” for each activity.
 However, most of the time, it is not possible to estimate activity durations
accurately.
 Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) allows for the estimates of
an activity duration to be treated as a probabilistic quantity.
 The only difference between the two methods is that CPM uses fixed duration
for each activity, while PERT uses a probability distribution based on 3 time
estimates.
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

ACTIVITY DURATIONS IN PERT

 PERT uses an activity duration called “the expected mean time (te)” with
uncertainty information
 The uncertainty can be expressed either as
 the “standard deviation (σte)” or
 the “variance (vte)” of the duration.
 There is a distribution for activity duration!
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

ACTIVITY DURATIONS IN PERT

 In order to calculate te, σte, vte the analyst has to estimate the distribution
through three different durations for each activity.
1) The optimistic time (to): is the time estimate where a particular activity
may be completed if everything goes well and exceptionally good luck is
experienced.
2) The most likely time (tm): is the time estimate in which a particular
activity can most often be completed under normal conditions.
3) The pessimistic time (tp): is the time estimate in which particular activity
may be completed under an adverse situation, such as having unusual and
unforeseen complications.
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

ACTIVITY DURATION DISTRIBUTION

 In PERT Analysis, activity durations are generally represented by Normal

Distribution.
Peak or mode (most likely time)

Expected mean time (divides area

under curve into half approx.)
Probability

Optimistic
time
Pessimistic
time

Time
to tm te tp
0
Activity completion with in this
range is anticipated
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

DURATION CALCULATIONS

 Assumption is used for te calculations.

 te, σte, vte values are calculated according to the following formulae;

Assumption:
Mean duration is
to+4tm+tp taken as the
te = arithmetic mean
6 of the mid-point
between to and tp
We have 6 x σte tp − to and the most
between the to - tp σte = likely time (tm),
range 6 weighed as
double.
FORMULAE
ARE 2
tp − to 2
PROVIDED IN vte = (σte) = ( )
THE EXAM! 6
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
 An activity duration is characterized with its te and σte.
 There is a % 99 chance that the duration will stay in to - tp range, namely te ±
3σte.
 There is a % 68.3 chance that duration lies in te ± σte.
 There is a % 95.5 chance that duration lies in te ± 2σte.

99% of area

68,3% of area

95,5% of area

-3 -2 -1 xത +1 +2 +3
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

PROBABILITY OF TS
(PROJECT DURATION)
 The probability of meeting the desired scheduled time (TS) is obtained by
determining the percentage of the area cut off by this time from the total area
beneath the normal distribution curve
probability
peak or mode at expected mean
event time

normal distribution curve

σTE σTE

time
TS TE

shaded area
Probability of TS = %
area under curve
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

PRACTICAL PROBABILITY OF TS: Z – TABLE

 Assuming that the project duration has a normal distribution due to Central
Limit Theorem, the probability of completing an activity by any specific time
"TS", can be determined by using the Z-Table where

TS − TE
Z= TS = TE + ZσTE
σTE
 Where; calculation of
scheduled time of
 Z: number of standard deviations from the start an event based on
 "TE": Critical path (project) mean given risk level

 "σE": Critical path (project) standard deviation.

 "TS": any date you choose
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

PERT PROCEDURE
1. Plan activities and logic as in CPM, but instead of assigning a fixed duration,
assign 3 duration estimates to, tp, and tm.
2. Translate 3 time estimates into a probability distribution, than find te and σte,
vte.
3. Use each activity’s te as its duration and find the critical path just as we did in
CPM.
4. Combine the activities on the critical path to get probability distribution for
each critical path (E(T), VAR(T)).
5. Using critical path’s distribution, make interferences about the likelihood of
the project being completed on before or after any given date (Assumption:
critical path doesn’t change).
METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

PERT PROCEDURE - SIMPLY

D
2 5
A I
F

B G
1 4 7

H K each activity has

C
frequency
E
3 6 distribution, so
mean and variance

add them up along

the paths
critical path mean and
variance  TE and VE
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

PERT PROCEDURE

1. Calculate EEET (Earliest Expected Event times) as in CPM (forward pass)

2. Add variances along the forward pass
3. Calculate LEET (Latest Expected Event times) as in CPM (backward pass)
4. Add variances along the backward pass
"VL" at the first event = "VE" at the last event
"VE" = measure of uncertainty up to that event.
"VL" = measure of uncertainty after that event.
5. Difference between EEET and LEET is called event slack (total float in
CPM). An event with zero slack is on the expected critical path.
6. VL + VE on the critical path must always be equal to VE of the last event
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

ADVANTAGES OF PERT

 Unlike CPM, the total project time is not a single figure, but expressed with a
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION.
 It enables to obtain much more information about the project. Given a target
date T*, probability that the project time will be greater than T* can be
calculated.
E.g.: Probability that T is less/greater than a certain value T* can be evaluated
from standard normal distribution function tables.

T ∗ − 𝐸(𝑇)
P(T<T∗) = P(z <
VAR(T)
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

SHORTCOMINGS OF PERT
 How accurate can be to, tp, tm?
In construction projects usually there is no enough data related with activity
durations. Therefore, accuracy depends on the ability of the estimator.
 PERT is based on many assumptions.
Activity times, in fact, cannot always be modeled by continuous functions all
the time. Different probability distributions may be more appropriate.
(Simulation technique may solve this problem)
 Critical path may change, then, joint probabilities must be used.
 Many researchers criticize PERT because it has computational difficulties and
at the end, obtained results do not worth all those time consuming
computations.
METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

Examples
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

EXAMPLE - 1

DURATIONS (DAYS)
ACTIVITY OPTIMISTIC (to) MOST LIKELY(tm) PESSIMISTIC (tp)
A 2 4 7
B 5 8 14
C 4 6 8
D 2 2 2
E 7 10 21

 Compute the following values:

1) The probability that the project will finish by the end of day 34?
2) The probability that the project will finish on the 32nd day?
3) The probability that the project will finish at least 2 days early?
4) The probability that the project will finish on the 32nd day ±1 day?
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

EXAMPLE - 1

 Calculate "te", "σte", and "Vte" for individual activities, and "TE" , "VE", and
"σE" for entire path.
DURATIONS (DAYS) EXPECTED STANDARD VARIANCE

ACTIVITY OPTIMISTIC MOST PESSIMISTIC DURATION DEVIATION (Vte = ơte2)

(to) LIKELY(tm) (tp) (te) (ơte)

A 2 4 7 4.167 0.833 0.694

B 5 8 14 8.500 1.500 2.250
C 4 6 8 6.000 0.667 0.444
D 2 2 2 2.000 0 0
E 7 10 21 11.333 2.333 5.444
TE =32 VE
=8.833

σE = VE = 8,833 = 2.972 days

 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

EXAMPLE - 1

1) The probability that the project will finish by the end of day 34?

TS − TE 34 − 32
Z= = = 0.67
σE 2.972

From Z table, we find that Pr ("TS"≦34)=0.749=74.9%

28 30 32 34 36
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

EXAMPLE - 1

2) The probability that the project will finish on the 32nd day?

The probability that the project will finish on the 32nd day:
Pr("TS"=32)=Pr("TS"≦32)-Pr("TS"≦31)=0.5-0.367=0.133=13.3%

TS − TE 31 − 32
Z= = = −0.34 → Pr (TS≦31)=1−0.633=0.367
σE 2.972

28 30 32 34 36
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

EXAMPLE - 1
3) The probability that the project will finish at least 2 days early?

This probability is the same as the probability of finishing on

the 30th day or earlier, or the same as the probability that the
project will finish by the end of day 30:

TS − TE 30 − 32
Z= = = −0.67
σE 2.972
From Z table, we find that Pr ("TS"≦30)=1-0.749=0.251=25.1%

28 30 32 34 36
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

EXAMPLE - 1

4) The probability that the project will finish on the 32nd day±1 day?

This means finishing on day 31, 32 or 33.

Pr ("TS"=31, 32, 33)=Pr (30<"TS"<33)=Pr ("TS"≦33)-Pr("TS"≦30)
Pr ("TS"=31, 32, 33)=0.633-0.251=0.382=38.2%

28 30 32 34 36
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

EXAMPLE - 2

ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION to tm tp
1-2 A 8 8 8
1-3 C 7 9 11
1-4 B 8 10 24
2-4 Dummy 0 0 0
2-5 D 3 5 13
3-6 E 12 13 32
4-5 F 6 7 8
4-7 G 10 11 18
4-6 H 8 10 36
5-7 I 8 8 20
6-7 K 8 8 8

 Calculate the probabilities that the project will finish later than 30, 34, and 36
days?
METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

EXAMPLE - 2

ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION to tm tp te σte vte

1-2 A 8 8 8 8 0 0
1-3 C 7 9 11 9 0.67 0.45
1-4 B 8 10 24 12 2.67 7.13
2-4 Dummy 0 0 0 0 0 0
2-5 D 3 5 13 6 1.67 2.79
3-6 E 12 13 32 16 3.33 11.09
4-5 F 6 7 8 7 0.33 0.11
4-7 G 10 11 18 12 1.33 1.77
4-6 H 8 10 36 14 4.67 21.81
5-7 I 8 8 20 10 2.00 4.00
6-7 K 8 8 8 8 0 0
Given Calculated by using
formulas
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

EXAMPLE - 2

 Construct the network just like in CPM.

METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

EXAMPLE - 2
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

EXAMPLE - 2

 The project has a total expected duration ("TE") of 34 days, and a variance of
28.94.

σE = VE = 28.94 = 5.38 days

 P(T>30)=1-P(z<(30−34)/5.38)=1-z(-0.74)=1-0.23=0.77
 P(T>34)=1-P(z<0)=0.5
 P(T>36)=1-P(z<(36−34)/5.38)=1-0.64=0.36
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

EXAMPLE - 3
3 Calculate the times
C for event 7 that
correspond to +ഥ 1 σ,
1 A 2 B 4 D 5 F 6 G 7 ഥ 2 σ, and +
+ ഥ3 σ
from the mean value
of event 7’s time
E

to tm tp
A 3 4 6
B 4 6 7
C 3 3 4
D 5 6 7
E 8 10 12
F 11 12 14
G 3 3 3
Estimated times
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

EXAMPLE - 3
3 Calculate the times
C for event 7 that
correspond to +ഥ 1 σ,
1 A 2 B 4 D 5 F 6 G 7 ഥ 2 σ, and +
+ ഥ3 σ
from the mean value
of event 7’s time
E

to tm tp te σte vte
A 3 4 6 4.17 0.5 0.25
B 4 6 7 5.83 0.5 0.25
C 3 3 4 3.17 0.17 0.03
D 5 6 7 6 0.33 0.11
E 8 10 12 10 0.67 0.44
F 11 12 14 12.17 0.5 0.25
G 3 3 3 3 0 0
Estimated times Calculate by using formulas
 METU CVE434 Construction Planning PERT

EXAMPLE - 3

 E(T)=31.17
ഥ 0.93%68.3
31.17+
 V=0.86 σ=0.93
Ranges ഥ 1.85%95.5
31.17+
ഥ 2.79%99
31.17+