LECTURE PACKAGE 2: ESTIMATIONS AND APPROXIMATIONS (3 EXAMPLES)

Terminology Measurement Approximation

 Equality  Approximate Calculations
 Equivalence  Estimation Tips
 Approximate Equality
 More or Less
 Plus/Minus

Topics • To demonstrate the importance and effectiveness of back-of-an-envelope

covered calculations.
:  To quickly guesstimate an answer that can be used as an initial estimate,
or as an alarm-bell when double-checking a solution in an exam, design,
proposal, etc.
• To highlight the relevance of significant figures.
• To demonstrate the meanings of:
= equals (exactly), ≈ equals (approximately), ≡ is equivalent to,
~ more or less (about), + positive and negative
• Note : these guesstimates are based on experiences / general knowledge/
intuition / imagination / common sense / …. i.e. there is a subjective
component and therefore there is no unique method.

Terminology

I. Equality "=" Definition:

Equal – of the same measure, quantity, amount, or number as another1. When two things
have the same amount or quantity that can be measured as identical, the two things are said
to be equal such as the weights or heights of two people, the colour of two shirts or the size
of two TV sets2.
In mathematics: equality is a relationship between two quantities or, more generally two
mathematical expressions, asserting that the quantities have the same value, or that the
expressions represent the same mathematical object.
The equality between A and B is written 𝐴 = 𝐵, and pronounced A equals B. The symbol "="
is called an "equals sign"3.

II. Equivalence "≡"

Definition: Equivalent – having a particular property in common4. When two things are the
same in some specific way/particular aspect, but not identical, they are said to be equivalent.
Two triangles having same areas are said to be equivalent but not equal if other parameters
are not the same5. In mathematics: if 𝐴⇒𝐵 and 𝐵⟹𝐴, where ⟹ denotes implies, then 𝐴 and
𝐵 are said to be equivalent, a relationship which is written symbolically as 𝐴≡𝐵.6

1
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/equal
2
https://www.differencebetween.com/difference-between-equal-and-vs-equivalent/
3
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equality_(mathematics)
4
https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/equivalent
5
https://www.differencebetween.com/difference-between-equal-and-vs-equivalent/ &
https://pediaa.com/difference-between-equal-and-equivalent/
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http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Equivalent.html

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III. Approximate Equality "≅" or "≈"

Definition: Approximate – nearly correct or exact; close in value or amount but not precise.7

Methods of Approximation
• Estimation – a rough calculation of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something. 8
• Approximations of real numbers by rational numbers e.g. shortening the irrational number
𝜋 to 3.14159, or 2 to 1.414.9

IV. Approximate Equality "≅" or "≈"

Methods of Approximation:
• Rounding and/or using a small number of significant digits or significant figures. (The
significant figures of a number are digits that carry meaningful contributions to its
measurement resolution.)
• Example of significant digits or significant figures:10,11

Methods of Approximation:
• Related to approximation of functions is the asymptotic value of a function; for example,
the sum (𝑘/2)+(𝑘/4)+(𝑘/8)+⋯(𝑘/2𝑛) is asymptotically equal to 𝑘.12
• Science & Engineering: approximation arises naturally in scientific experiments. The
predictions of a scientific theory can differ from actual measurements. This can be
because there are factors in the real situation that are not included in the theory. Under
these circumstances, the theory is an approximation to reality. Differences may also arise
because of limitations in the measuring technique. In this case, the measurement is an
approximation to the actual value.13

V. More or less " ~ "

Two numbers are more or less equal when they are approximately equal, but the
approximation is weak, in the sense that is very imprecise. Example: 11 ~ 1014

7
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/approximate
8
https://www.lexico.com/definition/estimation
9
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Approximation
10
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Approximation &
11
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Significant_figures
12
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Approximation
13
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Approximation
14
https://www.rapidtables.com/math/symbols/Algebra_Symbols.html

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VI. Positive and negative "±"
• In mathematical formulas, the ± symbol may be used to indicate a symbol that may be
replaced by either the + or − symbols, allowing the formula to represent two values or two
equations.
o For example, given the equation 𝑥2=9, one may give the solution as 𝑥=±3. This
indicates that the equation has two solutions, each of which may be obtained by
replacing this equation by one of the two equations 𝑥=+3 or 𝑥=−3.
• In engineering the sign ± indicates the tolerance, which is the range of values that are
considered to be acceptable, safe, or which comply with some standard, or with a
contract.15

Measurement Approximation

Sometimes you will have to estimate measurement of objects around you:

• What is the diameter of your pen?

The size of your thumb is about 1 inch (25,4 mm).
The pen diameter is 1/3 of the thumb,
so: 25,4 mm3≅8,4667 mm
The diameter of the pen is about 8,5 mm.
(A more accurate measurement is 8 mm.)

-What is the distance between the your elbow and the tip of your finger?

The size of your hand is about 200 mm.

The distance between elbow and tip of the
finger is about 2+2/3 hands,
so: 200 mm×83≅533,3333 mm
The distance between elbow and tip of the
finger is about 533 mm.
(A more accurate measurement is 520 mm.)

15
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plus-minus_sign

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What is the pressure that an average person applies on the floor?

The weight of an average person is about 62 kg. The

average size a foot is about 100×270=27000 mm2.
The force applied on the floor is:

(The atmospheric pressure is

1 atm=101 325 Pa ≅ 0,1 MPa.)

Approximate Calculations

On many occasions, physicists, scientists, and engineers need to make estimates for a
particular quantity. Other terms sometimes used are guesstimates, back-of-the-envelope
calculations, or Fermi calculations.
The estimation technique is named after physicist Enrico Fermi as he was known for his
ability to make good approximate calculations with little or no actual data. Fermi had a knack
for making roughly-accurate estimates with very little data, for example his famous
estimation just after the Trinity test, about the power of the first nuclear explosion.
Fermi decided he wanted a rough estimate of the blast's power before the diagnostic data
came in. So he dropped some pieces of paper from his hand as the blast wave passed him,
and used this to estimate that the blast was equivalent to 10 kilotons of TNT. His guess was
remarkably accurate for having so little data: the true answer turned out to be about 20
kilotons of TNT.16, 17,18

Approximate Calculations –

Estimation Tips Dare to be imprecise. Round things off enough to do the calculations in
your head: sometime oversimplify things makes the calculations feasible.
Decompose the problem. Sometimes you can give an estimate in one step, within a factor
of 10. But in most cases, you'll need to break the problem into several pieces, estimate each
of them, and then recombine them.
Estimate by bounding. Sometimes it is easier to give lower and upper bounds than to give
a point estimate. Then you can evaluate the geometric mean of the upper and lower bound:
.
Dominant Part. Another crucial technique in good estimates is to ignore everything but what
you deem to be the most important factor(s) in the problem. Sanity-check your answer.
You should always sanity-check your final estimate by comparing it to some reasonable
analogue.
Use Google as needed. You can often quickly find the exact quantity you're trying to
estimate on Google, or at least some piece of the problem. In those cases, it's probably not
worth trying to estimate it without Google.19

16
https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-osuniversityphysics/chapter/1-5-estimates-and-fermi-
calculations/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_problem
17
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PsEppdvgRisz5xAHG/fermi-estimates
18
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)
19
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PsEppdvgRisz5xAHG/fermi-estimates
https://brilliant.org/wiki/fermi-estimate/

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Approximate Calculations Example 1 How many glasses of water in a bathtub full of
water?

Strategy
1.Estimate the volume of the bathtub
2.Estimate the volume of the glass
3.Divide the two numbers
Volume of the bathtub: 1.8 m X 1 m X 0.5 m
=0,9 m3
Volume of the glass: 25 cl
1 cl=10 cm3=10−5 m3
25 cl=2.5 X 10−4 m3
Answer: 0.9 m3 = 3600 glasses
2,5∙10−4 m3

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Example 2 Estimate the total mass of the oceans on Earth.
Strategy:
• Mass is density times volume, and the density of water is 1000 kg/m3
• The volume of water on Earth can be estimated considering:
o The Earth is a sphere
o All the surface of the sphere/Earth is covered in water
• Estimate an average depth for the oceans
• Surface of the Earth:
o Diameter of Earth is 12742 km
o Surface of a sphere is 𝐴=𝜋𝑑2 →
𝐴=𝜋∙(12742 X 1000)2
≅ 5.1∙1014 m2
• Average depth of oceans:
o Without a number, we can bound the problem.
o The minimum depth could be estimated 1 km,
o while the maximum depth could be estimate 10 km.
o The average is:
o Depth= ≅ 3.2 X 103 m
o Volume of Earth’s oceans:
= 5.1 X 1014 m2∙3.2 X 103 m
= 1.6 X1018 m3
• Mass of Earth’s oceans: 𝑀
=𝜌∙𝑉= 103 kg/m3 X1.6 X 1018 m3’
=1,6∙1021 kg

1. Example 1 – Diameter of the Earth

Problem statement:
1a Estimate the Earth's circumference and
therefore diameter.

Assumptions
a) From experience: the flying time from Johannesburg to London is ~10 hours.
b) Using imagination of a world globe from school: London is about a quarter of the way
around the globe, from Johannesburg
c) An airliner flies at ~1 000 km/h (limited by the speed of sound, mach 1).
d) London is directly north of Johannesburg (i.e. in-line with each other).
e) The flying time assumes constant speed from point-to-point.
f) The circumference calculated is equivalent to that at the equator.
g) The Sun passes directly over-head South Africa.
Methodology

1) Earth's circumference and diameter:

The distance from Johannesburg to London:

• distance = speed x time ≈ 1 000 km/h x 10 h ≈ 10 000 km

• a quarter of a circle ≡ 90°

• therefore, circumference (360°) of Earth
≈ 4 x distance Johannesburg to London
≈ 40 000 km

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Diameter of the Earth:
• Φ = circumference ≈ 12 700 km
Π
Actual answer

1) Circumference = 40 075 km and diameter = 12 756.3 km

Discussion:

a) The actual flying time to London = 11h15.

b) Latitude difference between London (52° N) and Johannesburg (26° S) = 78°.
c) Cruising speed of a Boeing 747 = 933 km/h.
d) London (0° E) and Johannesburg (28°E) are horizontally separated by about
28° / 360°
≈ 8% of the circumference
≡ 3 200 km.
This makes the actual distance = 10 496 km
(a triangle of ~10 000 km vertically and ~3 200 km horizontally).
e) The actual flying time includes about an hour of manoeuvring at both ends of the
journey and is therefore not point-to-point.
f) The Earth is somewhat elliptical and not round.

Recommendations:

Using the following data would improve the estimates:

 The actual angular difference (78°) and not quarter-of-globe estimate (90°).
 The actual distance (10 496 km) and speed flown (933 km/h).
Conclusions:

• Despite the somewhat inaccurate assumptions and guesstimates, the answers

correlate surprisingly well, within 10% !
• Testing of one's assumptions is very important to check that they are indeed valid and
realistic. Alternatively, they must be refined.
• When estimating, generally the first digit and the order of magnitude of the number are
only meaningful; decimal points are rarely considered.

Problem statement:
1b Estimate how fast the Sun moves
through the sky.

Assumptions
• The circumference of Earth is ≈ 40 000 km.
The circumference calculated is equivalent to that at the equator
Methodology

1) Speed of Sun through sky:

The Earth completes one revolution in 24 hours:

• speed of Sun through sky ≈ 40 000 km / 24 h ≈ 1 700 km/h
1700 km/h = 1700X 1000 m = =472,2222 m/s
3600 s

Actual answer

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 1) Speed of Sun through sky = 1 669.8 km/h

Discussion:
a) The Earth is somewhat elliptical and not round.
Recommendations:

Conclusions:

Problem statement:
1c Estimate the sunset time in Cape Town if
it sets at 17h30 in Johannesburg.

Assumptions
 The distance between JHB and CT is ≈1000 km.
 The circumference of Earth is ≈40 000 km.
 Assume the sun passes directly overhead South Africa.

Methodology

The angular difference in position between Cape Town and Johannesburg:

• distance from CT to JHB ≈ 1 000 km
• longitudinal difference ≈ 1 000 km / 40 000 km x 360° ≈ 9°

The Earth's rotational speed is:

• ω = 360° / 24 h ≡ 15° per hour (towards the east)
• therefore, time difference = 9° / 15° per hour ≈ 0.6 hours ≡ 36 minutes
• Therefore, sunset time = 17h30 + 0h36 = 18h06

Actual answer
• Sunset time = 17h53
Discussion:

 The circumference of the Earth at the latitude of Cape Town (less than the equator).

 Consideration of the latitude of South Africa; in winter, the Sun passes overhead the
Tropic of Cancer, ~500 north of South Africa.

 Cape Town is further south than Johannesburg so the horizontal component is less
than 1000 km.

Recommendations:

Conclusions:

2. Example 2 – Population Density of South Africa

Problem statement:

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 2a Estimate the number of people in South Africa.
Assumptions:

a) From Eskom's “49M” energy-saving campaign, circa the Soccer World Cup in 2010,
there were ~49M people.
b) The number of people living in Johannesburg is ~4M.
c) The entire population lives in one of the major cities; no one lives in the rural areas.
d) All major cities (considered to be cities with access to an airport) are the same size as
Johannesburg.
Methodology:

 Eskom's 2010 campaign was based on the approximate number of people i.e.
population (2010) ≈ 49M people
Alternatively:
o There are 12 major “cities” in South Africa:
o JHB, PTA, DBN, PMB, CPT, BFN, KIM, PE, ELS, NEL, Polokwane, Soweto
o Total population ≈ 12 cities x 4M people per city ≈ 48M people
Actual answers

1) Population (2017) = 56.72M people (i.e. growing at 1M per year since 2010)
Discussion:
a) Initial population numbers used are out-of-date and somewhat vague.
b) “Number of people in Johannesburg” ... Where is the boundary of Johannesburg?
Recommendations
Using the following data would improve the estimates:
 A better source for the number of people?
Conclusions:
 Again, the answers correlate relatively well, within about 20%.
 The estimated answers depend significantly on the accuracy of the assumptions:
rubbish in = rubbish out.
 Common sense needs to be used to judge the quality of the assumptions as well as
the answers themselves.

Problem statement:
2b Estimate the area (square kilometres)
of South Africa.

Assumptions:

• The length of the country, from corner to corner, is ~2 000 km.

Methodology:

1) Estimating the area (square kilometres) of the country:

Considering the shape of the country, the outline fits more-or-less into a big square with a
diagonal length of ~2 000 km; the top-left and
bottom-right corners fall outside the borders / coastline.
 The four smaller blue squares are each divided into 2 triangles i.e. 8 triangles in total.
 The country therefore fills ~6 triangles
 The diagonal length ≈ 2 000 km ≡ base x height ≈ 1 400 km x 1 400 km

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  Area of shaded country ≈ 6 / 8 x 1 400 km x 1 400 km ≈ 1.5M km2

Actual answers

1) Area of South Africa = 1.22M km2

Discussion:
a) Looking at a map of South Africa, the square approximation is not bad at all.
b) Land-locked countries like Lesotho and Swaziland have been included in the area
(albeit small) but excluded from the population numbers.
Recommendations
Using the following data would improve the estimates:
 Reducing the area of South Africa by those of Lesotho and Swaziland.
 Increasing the number of smaller squares (and hence triangles) to better approximate
the shape / area.
Conclusions:
 As above 2a

Problem statement:

2c Estimate the average population density of the country.

Assumptions:

Methodology:

2) Estimated average population density:

 Population density = number of people / area
 Therefore: 48M / 1.5M km2 ≈ 32 people / km2
Actual answers

2) Population (2017) = 56.72M people (i.e. growing at 1M per year since 2010)
3) Area of South Africa = 1.22M km2
4) Population density = 46.5 people / km2 (Aside: Gauteng > 700 people / km2; Northern
Cape < 4 people / km2)
Discussion:
As above 2a and 2b
Recommendations
Using the following data would improve the estimates:
 Reducing the area of South Africa by those of Lesotho and Swaziland.
 Increasing the number of smaller squares (and hence triangles) to better approximate
the shape / area.
 • A better source for the number of people?
Conclusions:
 As above 2a and 2b

3. Example 3 – Text to Megabytes (MB)

Problem statement:
1) Estimate how many words would need to be typed, to reach 1MB of data.
Assumptions:
a) Each character (or letter of text) is 1 byte.
b) On average, there are ~5 letters per word.

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 Methodology:

1) How many words in 1MB:

Since each character is one byte, the total number of letters in 1MB is:
• 1MB = 1024 x 1024 bytes = 1 048 576 bytes ≡ 1 048 576 letters
Based on the average number of letters per word:
• total number of words = 1 048 576 letters / 5 letters per word ≈ 210 000 words

Actual answers:

1) Based on the number of letters in the average English word, words per MB = 233 017
words.
Discussion:
a) In practice, spaces and punctuation are also characters (special letters) too.
Recommendations:
Using the following data would improve the estimates:
 The actual average English word comprises 4.5 letters
Conclusions:

Problem statement:
3b Estimate how many hand-written exam pages this would fill. (1 megabyte)

Assumptions:
a) With reasonable hand-writing, one line can accommodate ~10 words.
b) Each exam page comprises ~30 lines to write on.
c) Writing on one side of a page only.
Methodology:

1) Number of hand-written exam pages:

The number of hand-written words that fit onto one page of an exam pad:
• words per page = 30 lines x 10 words per line = 300 words / page
• number of exam pages = total words / words per page ≈
• 210 000 words = 700 pages
300 words
Actual answers:

1) same
Discussion:
b) The quality of hand-writing has a significant impact here.
c) In practice, spaces and punctuation are also characters (special letters) too.
Recommendations:
Using the following data would improve the estimates:
 improvement in the estimate (and is much quicker than counting everything single
word on every single page).
Conclusions:
 Sometimes a sample (in this case, of the hand-writing or one page of dictionary text)
would provide a very accurate reference.

Problem statement:
3c Estimate how many MB the Pocket Oxford Dictionary would be, if typed out and
saved.
Assumptions:

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a) Writing on one side of a page only.
Methodology:

1) How many megabytes would the dictionary be:

To estimate the total number of words in the dictionary:
• there are about ~1 000 pages, each page comprises two columns of ~8 words per
line and ~60 lines.
• total number of words ≈ 1 000 000
• total number of letters =1 000 000 words x 5 letters per word ≈ 5 000 000.
• Total number of MB = 5 000 000 bytes / 1 048 576 ≈ 4.8 MB
Actual answers:

1) Based on the number of letters in the average English word, words per MB = 233 017
words.
2) Same.
3) Between 4 MB and 6 MB depending on the version and whether punctuation and
spaces are considered or not.
Discussion:
a) In practice, spaces and punctuation are also characters (special letters) too.
Recommendations:
Using the following data would improve the estimates:
 Same as above
Conclusions:
 • Note : There is a subtle difference between “Mega” in Megabytes = 1024 x 1024
bytes and in Megahertz = 1000 x 1000 hertz.

Problem statement:
3x Estimate how many MB the Bible would be, if typed out and saved.

Assumptions:
a) Writing on one side of a page only.
Methodology:

To estimate the total number of words in the Bible:

• there are
o about ~1 200 pages,
o each page comprises two columns of ~8 words per line
o and ~50 lines.
• total number of words ≈ 1 000 000
• total number of letters =1 000 000 words x 5 letters per word ≈ 5 000 000.
• total number of MB = 5 000 000 bytes / 1 048 576 ≈ 4.8 MB

Actual answers:

1) Based on the number of letters in the average English word, words per MB = 233 017
words.
2) Same.
3) Between 4 MB and 6 MB depending on the version and whether punctuation and
spaces are considered or not.
Discussion:
a) In practice, spaces and punctuation are also characters (special letters) too.
Recommendations:
Using the following data would improve the estimates:

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 Same as above
Conclusions:

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Lecture Package #2

Estimations and Approximations

The following important concepts are presented in this lecture:
 Back-of-an-envelope calculations
 Estimations and approximations
 Significant figures
 Nomenclature

Introduction
It is important for engineers be able to do quick back-of-an-envelope calculations to get a
rough idea of an answer. This skill also relies on experience and intuition.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Approximation

https://www.mathsisfun.com/numbers/estimation.html

https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/z8fj6yc/revision/1

http://math.mit.edu/~jorloff/suppnotes/suppnotes01-01a/01a.pdf

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