GEOG1022

Lecture 2: Earth System and Climate Change

Peng Zhu, Department of Geography

Room 1005, Jockey Club Tower,
Centennial Campus
Email: [email protected]

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Learning Objectives

• Describe the components of the Earth system

• Understand why study climate change
• Explain the difference between climate and
weather
• Energy budget of the Earth system
• Greenhouse gases and greenhouse effect

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Earth system atmosphere

Atmosphere

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Earth’s atmosphere

Atmosphere

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Earth’s hydrosphere

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Earth’s cryosphere

Greenland

Antarctica

Snow Cover

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Earth’s cryosphere

Ice shelves
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Earth’s cryosphere

Icebergs
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Earth’s lithosphere

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Earth’s biosphere

Earth’s biome map

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Why study climate change?
• The climate system determines the weather. The
weather affects many of our daily decisions

• Climate affects long-term trends in plants and

animals

• Climate affects long-term suitability of Human

Settlements

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Observed climate change

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More summer days (Apr - Oct)
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Orange – summer days: daily mean temp ≥ 27.7 oC

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Number of very hot days in Hong Kong

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Annual mean rainfall (1885-2015)

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Hong Kong rain days (daily rainfall>=1mm)
(1885-2015)

Note: Total annual rainfall increases while rain days decrease

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Days of heavy rain (hourly rainfall>30mm)
(1947-2017)

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The primary indicators of climate change
As selected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA)：
• Seven of these indicators increase in a warming world
• Three indicators decrease

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NASA: 10 climate trends that spell trouble for our planet

1. Surface temperature is getting hotter

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2. Oceans are warming

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 3. Ice sheets are shrinking

Polar ice loss has contributed about 20 percent of the total global sea level rise
since 1992

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4. Seas are rising faster

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5. Extreme weather events are more frequent

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6. Humidity is increasing

Humidity is the amount of water vapor present in air

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7. Snow cover has been reduced

Decreasing snow cover in N. hemisphere

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8. Glaciers are retreating

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9. Oceans are becoming more acidic

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10. Coral reefs are dying

Coral after undergoing bleaching at Lizard Island on the Great Barrier Reef in March 2016, and the same
coral reef in May 2016 after the coral had died •

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 Weather vs. Climate
• Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time

• Climate is how the atmosphere "behaves" over relatively a long period of time

• Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get

❖ Weather can change quickly, from one moment to the next and over short
distances (the minute-to-minute, day-to-day state of the local atmosphere)
❖ Climate is the long-term (time) pattern of averages of weather conditions (e.g.,
temperature, precipitation and their extremes for relatively large regions (space)

❖ Difficult to understand and predict climate because of longer temporal and spatial
scales

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9-day weather forecast

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Weather stations in Hong Kong

Hong Kong Observatory – 24 hours time series of temperature and humidity

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Weather and climate scales
• Weather refers to hours, days and maybe months
• Climate variability refers to months, years and decades
• Climate change refers to decades and centuries

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 Weather variability
• Day-to-day temperature variations
• Diurnal cycle of temperature
• Minimum and maximum daily temperatures

Daily temperature variability over 5 days

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 Climate variability
• Blue line: daily temperature varies greatly
• Red line: Monthly average daily temperature
• Seasonal cycles of temperature
Temperature variability over 5 years

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Climate change vs. climate variability
• Climate change refers to long-term changes and trends in the mean climate
• Climate variability refers to year-to-year variations around the mean

Change in air temperature over a period of

about 70 years
Black rectangle shows
a five-year period

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Variability does not remain constant
Magnitudes of climate variability varies greatly over time. There may have
three scenarios:

• Amplitude of variability may

change while climate keep constant

• Variability may change as

climate changes

• Sudden change in climate may

alter amplitude of variability

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 Climate may be highly variable but
there is no climate change
Temperature

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Temperature of Hong Kong (1885-2012)
• Temperature variability and change over the past hundred years
• Warming and cool periods – natural climate variability
• Long-term rising trend – climate change
Annual mean temperature, HKO, TST

Rise of 1.2 oC/100 years

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 Modes of climate change
Distribution of a weather parameter (temperature, rainfall etc.)

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Modes of climate change

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How does the climate system work?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrPS2HiYVp8 41
What causes Earth’s climate to change?

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Earth energy balance

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Radiation emitted by the Sun and Earth

Earth
Sun

Wien's Displacement Law:

Peak energy at a temperature- Shortwave radiation Longwave radiation
dependent wavelength: the higher the (UV-visible-near (Infra red,
temperature, the shorter the infra red) Microwave)
wavelength.
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Radiation emitted by the Sun and Earth

Earth Radiative Energy Budget:

Incoming Shortwave Radiation

Absorption by atmosphere & surface

Reflection by atmosphere & surface

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Radiation emitted by the Sun and Earth

Earth Radiative Energy Budget:

Outgoing longwave radiation
Emitted from surface & atmospheric
molecules
Absorption by atmospheric
molecules & surface

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Earth energy balance
Outgoing Top of the atmosphere

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Earth energy balance
– Sun’s net radiation: (1 – α)Save
– Earth’s energy out: εσT4

Δ = (1 – α)Save – εσT4
✓ α is the Earth’s albedo
✓ Save is the average solar energy flux
✓ ε is the effective emissivity of the planetary system
✓ σ is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant
✓ T is the average planetary surface temperature.

If Δ > 0, a positive radiative forcing. To counterbalance this forcing, temperature has

to increase to produce a planetary radiative flux.

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What is Albedo?

• Albedo is the fraction of the sun’s energy that

is reflected from the Earth back into space. It
is a measure of how “white” an object is.
– Albedo of 0 = perfect absorber.
– Albedo of 1 = perfect reflector.
• What are some examples of objects that have
high and low albedo?

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Albedo = Reflection 50
 Earth’s albedo 51
Collected by NASA satellite and averaged. Does not include the ocean and no data for white areas.
Cloud is an important part of the energy budget
• Low thick clouds = high reflection, cools the surface
• High thin clouds = low reflection, warms the surface

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What causes Earth’s climate to change?

• Natural causes
– Volcanoes
– Changes in the sun (long time scales)
– Shifts in Earth’s orbit (long time scales)
• Anthropogenic causes
– Greenhouse gases emission
– Land cover/land use change
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 Natural causes-volcanism

• Volcanic eruption
throws out a
enormous amount
of particles and
other gases that
effectively shield
us from the Sun to
lead to a period
of global cooling.

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 Anthropogenic causes –
Greenhouse effects
• Greenhouse gases are those that absorb and emit infrared
radiation in the wavelength range emitted by Earth.

The burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas for electricity, heat, and
transportation is the primary source of human-generated emissions. 55
Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming
Outgoing Top of the atmosphere

Greenhouse Gases

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What if Earth did not have greenhouse gases?

Main Greenhouse CO2 and H2O

Gases

Estimated -5 °C (23 °F)

temperature without
greenhouse gases
Actual average 15 °C (59 °F)
temperature

Temperature change 20 °C (36 °F)

because of
greenhouse gases

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Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

Source: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/change/causes_en
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Key GHG emitted by human activities

(Industrial processes, refrigeration, and the

(Agricultural activities, use of a variety of consumer products )
such as fertilizer use)

(Agricultural activities, waste

management, energy use)

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Key GHG emitted by economic sectors

(Not directly associated with electricity or heat production,

such as fuel extraction, refining, processing)

(Burning of coal, natural gas,

and oil for electricity and heat)
(Fossil fuels burned, emissions
from chemical and mineral
transformation processes)

(Cultivation of crops and livestock

(Fossil fuels burned for road, rail, and deforestation)
air, and marine transportation)

(Onsite energy generation and

burning fuels for heat in buildings)
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How we know climate change is driven
by human activity?

Climate Model

Simulation experiment 1: Only natural factors

Simulation experiment 2: natural + human factors
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Climate model to simulate Earth’s climate

• Cannot conduct atmospheric experiment >>> essential tool for

understanding of physical, chemical and biological mechanisms
• Equations solved “numerically” (approximated) in the model

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How we know climate change is driven
by human activity?

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 The key to climate solutions is
international collaboration
Paris agreement
• Call for global actions to achieve peak greenhouse emissions as soon
as possible
• Achieve a balance between carbon sources and sinks in the second half
of the 21st century (i.e. to reach ‘carbon neutrality’ between 2051 and
2100)
• Keep global average temperature increase well below 2℃ relative to pre-
industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5℃
• Global actions based on a “bottom-up” approach, where all the Parties
must devise their own suitably ambitious “nationally determined
contributions” with targets and timelines

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China’s nationally determined actions by 2030
• To achieve the peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and
making best efforts to peak early
• To lower carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% from
the 2005 level
• To increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption
to around 20%
• To increase the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters
on the 2005 level
• To strengthen early warning and emergency response systems and
disaster prevention and reduction mechanism

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 Paris agreement and Hong Kong
• Hong Kong plays a part to help fulfill the obligations that China has
under the Paris Agreement
• Review climate change efforts every 5 years and align them with the
submission timelines under the Paris Agreement

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Hong Kong’s 2030 Target
• Hong Kong sets an ambitious carbon intensity target of 65% to 70% by
2030 using 2005 as the base, which is equivalent to 26% to 36%
absolute reduction and a reduction to 3.3-3.8 tonnes on a per capita
basis
• Hong Kong’s emissions will peak by 2020 when we have more electricity
generation from natural gas in our fuel mix

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