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Application of SCS-CN model in Runoff Estimation

Article · March 2018

DOI: 10.22214/ijraset.2018.3544

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 International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET)
ISSN: 2321-9653; IC Value: 45.98; SJ Impact Factor: 6.887
Volume 6 Issue III, March 2018- Available at www.ijraset.com

Application of SCS-CN model in Runoff Estimation

Pasupati M. Shrestha1, Dr. (Mrs.) Geetha K. Jayaraj2
1
M. E. Student, water resources Engineering YTCEM, Bhivpuri road
2
Principal S.S. Jondhale COE, Asangaon

Abstract: The generation of runoff is triggered by the rain intensity and soil moisture status, and is calculated as the net
precipitation times a runoff coefficient, which depends upon slope, land use and soil type. The runoff curve number (CN) is a
key factor in determining runoff in the NCRS (National Resource Conservation Service) based hydrologic modeling method. The
Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS CN) also known as hydrologic soil group method is used in this study. The SCS
CN is a quantative description of land use/land cover / soil complex characteristics of water shed. This method is a versatile and
popular approach for quick runoff estimation and is relatively easy to use with minimum data and it gives adequate result. From
this study, hydrological forecasting will be done by using SCS CN modeling which can be further used for the management of
water resources and land. The area selected for the present study consists of mainly river Amba (Catchment area of Pali and
Tuksai) The result obtained will be useful for water management and irrigation scheduling of the study area.
Keywords: NCRS (National Resource Conservation Service), curve number (CN), Pali and Tuksai catchment area, runoff
estimation.

I. INTRODUCTION
Water resources are essential renewable resources that are the basis for existence and development of a society. Proper utilization of
these resources requires assessment and management of the quantity and quality of the water resources both spatially and
temporally. Water crises caused by shortages, floods and diminishing water quality, among others, are increasing in all parts of the
world. The growth of population demands for increased domestic water supplies and, at the same time, results with a higher
consumption of water due to expansion in agriculture and industry. Mismanagement and lack of knowledge about existing water
resources and the changing climatic conditions have consequences of an imbalance of supply and demand of water. The problem is
pronounced in semi-arid and arid areas where the resources are limited. Surface water being easy, direct and therefore less
expensive to exploit in comparison to other sources like groundwater or desalinization makes it the major source of water supply for
irrigation, industry and domestic uses. The surface water, in the form of lakes and river discharge (runoff) is predominately obtained
from rainfall after being generated by the rainfall runoff processes. In order to make decisions for planning, design and control of
water resource systems, long runoff series are required. The latter are not often available with reasonable length. On the other hand,
for flood control and reservoir regulation future, flows shall be forecasted with rainfall runoff models. A number of rainfall runoff
models exist for generation of flow, forecasting and other purposes. Establishing a rainfall-runoff relationship is the central focus of
hydrological modelling from its simple form of unit hydrograph to rather complex models based on fully dynamic flow equations.
As the computing capabilities are increasing, the use of these models to simulate a catchment became a standard. Models are
generally used as utility in various areas of water resource development, in assessing the available resources, in studying the impact
of human interference in an area such as land use change, deforestation and other hydraulic structure such as dams and reservoirs.
The conventional hydrologic data are inadequate for purpose of design and operation of water resources systems. Surface water
runoff is a step in the water cycle on Earth. When precipitation occurs, water only has a few locations where it can go. Water can
infiltrate into the ground, evaporate, or become runoff. Runoff is the short way of saying surface water runoff. Rainfall runoff is an
important component contributing significantly to the hydrological cycle, design of hydrological structures and morphology of the
drainage system. Estimation of the same is required in order to determine and forecast its effects. The problem of estimating runoff
from a storm event is one of the key points in hydrologic modeling. Estimation of Direct rainfall runoff is always efficient but is not
possible for most of the location at desired time. Classical techniques as the rational method or the Soil Conservation Service curve
number approach are still widely used in practice. Due to the complexity of the hydrological processes and the basin characteristics,
physically based distributed models using GIS and Remote sensing techniques are becoming popular. Use of remote sensing and
GIS technology can be used to overcome the problem of conventional method for estimating runoff caused due to rainfall. In this
paper, modified Soil conservation System (SCS) CN model is used for rainfall runoff estimation that considers parameter like slope,
vegetation cover, area of watershed.

©IJRASET (UGC Approved Journal): All Rights are Reserved 2363

 International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET)
ISSN: 2321-9653; IC Value: 45.98; SJ Impact Factor: 6.887
Volume 6 Issue III, March 2018- Available at www.ijraset.com

II. STUDY AREA

The entire Amba river system flows through the state of Maharashtra in Raigad and Pune districts. The Amba sub-basin falls in
Western Ghats. Total length of Amba river is 78.179 Kms. The Amba sub basin has a tropical climate. The weighted average
rainfall is more than 3157 mm. The mean July temperature varying between 20 °C and 34 °C and mean January temperatures are
between 18 °C and 30 °C. The Sub basin falls into single major agro-climatic zone. Major part of the sub basin i.e. 31.73. % is
covered with agricultural crops. Approximately 28.08% of the sub basin area is covered by forest; Wasteland covers around 21.89%
of the total basin area. The important soil types found in the basin are medium black soils, , lateritic soils, alluvium, mixed soils (red
and black, red and yellow, etc.) and saline and alkaline soils. The Catchment area for Tuksai is 44.31 km2 and for Pali it is 329.3
km2 Basin originates near at Rajmachi in Borghat., Tal. Maval, Dist. Pune. The catchment of the sub basin lies approximately
between northern latitudes 180 45’ and 180 86’ and eastern longitude 730 21’ and 720 92’. Hydrological data was obtained from the
the department of State Data Storage Center Hydrology Project (Surface Water) Jal Vidnyan Bhavan, Dindori Road, Nashik. Land
use pattern, soil information, geographical area of both catchment was take from Draft Report on ntegrated State Water Plan For
Amba Valley by Government of Maharashtra.

III. SCS-CN METHOD OF MEASURING RUNOFF

The SCS curve number method is a simple method used on large scale for determination of the approximate runoff value
corresponding to a certain rainfall quantity in a certain area. Although the method is designed for a single storm, it can be scaled to
calculate the annual values for runoff in an area.
The runoff curve number (also called a curve number or simply CN) is an empirical parameter corresponding to different soil-
vegetation-land use combinations. The SCS Curve number method only forecasts the quantity of runoff formed in any point of the
catchment but does not model the flow routing or the distribution of runoff through time. Because of this reason the requirements of
the method are quite low, only the rainfall depth and an empirical parameter named the Curve Number are mandatory. The Curve
Number (CN) value can be obtained from the hydrologic soil group, land use and moisture conditions of the soil, the last two values
being more important.
The SCS-CN method is based on the water balance equation and two fundamental hypotheses
The water balance equation states that:
P = Ia + F + Q (i)
The first hypothesis states that the ratio of the actual amount of direct runoff to the maximum potential runoff is equal to the ratio of
the amount of actual infiltration to the amount of the potential maximum retention:
= (ii)
The second hypothesis states that the amount of initial abstraction is some fraction of the potential maximum retention.
Ia = λS (iii)
Where:
P = total precipitation (mm) ;
Ia = initial abstraction (mm);
F = cumulative infiltration excluding Ia (mm);
Q = direct runoff (mm);
S = potential maximum retention or infiltration;
The current version of the SCS-CN method presented in NEH4 considers λ equal 0.2 for the usual practical applications. As the
initial abstraction component accounts for factors like surface storage, interception and infiltration before runoff begins, λ can also
take other values depending on the application. In theory, λ can take any value between 0 and ∞ but most of the current applications
use the suggested value of 0.2.
Combining equations (1.2) and (1.3), the main equations for the SCS Curve Number Method are obtained:
( )
Q=( )
(iv)
Ia =0.2 x S (v)
By replacing Ia in equation (1.1), an equation with only two parameters is obtained.
( . )
Q= ( . )
(vi)
The potential maximum soil retention, S, can be obtained according to the CN value.

©IJRASET (UGC Approved Journal): All Rights are Reserved 2364

 International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET)
ISSN: 2321-9653; IC Value: 45.98; SJ Impact Factor: 6.887
Volume 6 Issue III, March 2018- Available at www.ijraset.com

S= − 254 (vii)
The equations are based on the trends observed in data obtained from the study areas, so they are empirical equations rather than
equations based on physical laws. The CN is a Hydrologic parameter that relies implicitly on the assumptions of extreme runoff
events and Represents a convenient representation of the potential maximum soil retention,.

A. Soils
In determining the CN, the hydrological classification is adopted. Here soils are classified into four classes A, B, C and D based on
the infiltration and other characteristics. The important soil characteristics that influence the hydrological classification of soils are
effective depth of soil, average clay content, infiltration characteristics and the permeability. Following is a brief description of four
hydrologic soil groups:
1) Group a (low runoff potential): Soils having high infiltration rates even when thoroughly wetted and consisting chiefly of deep,
well to excessively drained sand or gravels. These soils have high rate of water transmission.
2) Group b (moderately low runoff potential): Soils having moderate infiltration rates when thoroughly wetted and consisting
chiefly of moderately deep to deep, moderately well to well drained soil with moderately fine to moderately coarse textures.
These soils have moderate rate of water transmission.
3) Group c (moderately high runoff potential): Soils having low infiltration rates when thoroughly wetted and consisting chiefly of
moderately deep to deep, moderately well to well drained soil with moderately fine to moderately coarse textures. These soils
have moderate rate of water transmission.
4) Group D (High Runoff Potential): Soils having low infiltration rates when thoroughly wetted and consisting chiefly of clay
soils with high swelling potential, soil with permanent high water table, soils with clay pan or clay layer at or near the surface
and shallow soils over nearly impervious material.

B. Antecedent Moisture Condition (AMC)

AMC refers to the moisture content present in the soil at the beginning of the rainfall-runoff event under consideration. It is well
known that initial abstraction and infiltration and are governed by AMC. For purposes of practical application three level of AMC
are recognized by SCS as follows
1) AMC-I: Soils are dry but not to wilting point. Satisfactory cultivation has taken place.
2) AMC-II: Average conditions
3) AMC-III: Sufficient rainfall has occurred within the immediate past five days. Saturated soil conditions prevail.
The Curve Number (CN) is used in the determination of S and values for the CN for different landuse, soil types and soil moisture
conditions can be found in tables (table 1).

Table 1. CN no. for different Soil Conditions [8]

Land use Cover Hydrologic Soil Group

Treatment or practice Hydrologic condition A B C D
Cultivated Straight row 76 86 90 96
Cultivated Contoured Poor 70 79 84 87
Good 65 75 82 86
Cultivated Contoured and terraced Poor 66 74 80 83
Good 62 71 77 82
Cultivated Bunded Poor 67 75 81 82
Good 59 69 76 79
Cultivated Paddy 95 95 95 95
Orchards With understory cover 39 53 67 72

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 International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET)
ISSN: 2321-9653; IC Value: 45.98; SJ Impact Factor: 6.887
Volume 6 Issue III, March 2018- Available at www.ijraset.com

Without understory cover 41 45 69 75

Forests Dense 26 40 52 65
Open 28 44 60 67
Scrub 33 47 60 69
Pastures Poor 68 79 86 88
Fair 49 69 79 85
Good 39 61 74 83
Wasteland 71 80 85 89
Roads (dirt) 73 83 88 91
Hard surface areas 77 86 91 95

IV. METHODOLGY
The SCS-CN Model was applied on the Catchment Area of Tuksai and Pali Respectively having area 44.31 km2 ,329.3 km2. For
Tuksai, Rainfall Data from year 1994-1996(3 years) was considered for calibration and year 1997(1 year) was used for validation.
For Pali, Rainfall Data from year 1994-1997(4 years) was considered for calibration and year 1998(1 year) was used for validation.
The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was used to assess the SCS-CN model performance.

A. Formulation of the model

This model adopts various flow paths in stream flow generation, such as (1) Surface runoff (2) Through flow and (3) Base flow;
along with rainfall dependent initial abstraction
This algorithm operates on daily time basis and, therefore, requires daily data of rainfall and evaporation as input to explain the
physical behaviour of the catchment. The observed runoff is used for model evaluation.

Fig. 1. Schematic diagram of SCS-CN-based rainfall-runoff model [1]

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 International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET)
ISSN: 2321-9653; IC Value: 45.98; SJ Impact Factor: 6.887
Volume 6 Issue III, March 2018- Available at www.ijraset.com

B. Initial Abstraction
The initial abstraction Ia is taken as a fraction of the possible retention in the soil and is computed as:
Ia(t) = λ S(t) , if t ≤ 5 days (viii)
Here, λ is the parameter to be optimised. Ia(t) and St are the daily initial abstraction and daily potential maximum water retention.

C. Routing of Rainfall Excess

When the number of days exceeds 5, to transform the surface runoff that is produced at the outlet of the basin, ROt (10) is routed
using a single linear reservoir concept, as in (14). Then ROt is routed to the outlet of the basin using the single linear reservoir as
below.
SROt = Do X ROt + D1 X ROt-1 + D2 X SROt-1 (ix)
Where,
Do = ((1/K))/(2+(1/K))
D1 = Do
D2 = (1+(1/K))/(2 +(1/K))
Here, SROt is the routed surface runoff at the outlet of the catchment and K is the storage coefficient.

D. Infiltration
This amount of water reaching the ground after Ia and not produced as surface runoff is assumed to infiltrate into the upper soil. Ft-1
is the previous day infiltration (mm) computed using water balance equation
F(t-1) = P(t-1) – Ia(t-1) - RO (t-1) (x)
Here, if Pe(t) ≥ 0, Ft ≥ 0.

E. Evaporation
The daily evaporation EVt is computed as follows :
EVt = PANC X EVPt (xi)
Where EVPt is the potential evaporation based on the field data and PANC is the Penmann coefficient, assumed as 0.8 for June-
September and 0.6 for October-November, and 0.7 for February-May.

F. Base Flow
The base flow of a watershed is the ground water release from a catchment in a stream. This active ground water flow which is also
known as delayed flow can be modeled as outflow from a non-linear storage in the form of base flow (BFt)
BFt = bf X F (xii)
Where bf = ground water zone runoff coefficient.

G. Total Stream Flow

The total stream flow (TROt) on a day 't' is obtained as the sum of the above three components, surface runoff, throughflow, and
base flow . if t ≤ 5days,
TRO = ROt + BFt (xiii)
and if t> 5 days,
TROt = SROt + BFt (xiv)

V. RESULT AND DISCUSSION

The SCS-CN model used the antecedent moisture factor with the effect of antecedent rainfall to estimate the daily water retention
store and then the water retention store gets updated by taking into account of daily evapotranspiration, drainage from soil moisture
store and infiltration to the soil moisture store. The optimal estimates of model parameters were obtained by trial-and-error. Table 1
shows the ranges and initial estimate of each parameter and also the optimised values of the parameters involved in the model
formulation.

©IJRASET (UGC Approved Journal): All Rights are Reserved 2367

 International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET)
ISSN: 2321-9653; IC Value: 45.98; SJ Impact Factor: 6.887
Volume 6 Issue III, March 2018- Available at www.ijraset.com

Table 2. Estimates of Parameters and EFFICIENCY of the Model

Sl no. Parameters Range Optimised Values

Pali Tuksai

1 Area 329.3 km2 44.31 km2

2 CN 0-100 39 39

3 λ 0-1.00 0.2 0.2

4 bf 0-1.00 0.05 0.55

5 K 0-5.00 0.9 1

Efficiency
6 47.50% 52.60%
(Calibration)

Efficiency
7 88% 72%
(Validation)

8 Runoff Factor 0.73 0.73

Table 3. Annual Rainfall, Observed Runoff, Simulated Runoff and Relative Error for Model Using Annual Data (Pali)
Sl. No. Year Rainfall(mm) Obseved Runoff(mm) Simulated Runoff(mm) Relative Error(%)
Pali
1 1994 3861.9 2733.3 3088.64 -10.15
2 1995 2439.5 1042.66 1522.29 -46
3 1996 3083 1712.33 2242.62 -30.96
4 1997 3145.2 1137.52 2287.61 -101
5 1998 3743.1 2716.29 2922.3 -5.91
Average 3254.54 1868.42 2412.692 -38.804

Table 4. Annual Rainfall, Observed Runoff, Simulated Runoff and Relative Error for Model Using Annual Data (Tuksai)
Sl. No. Year Rainfall(mm) Obseved Runoff(mm) Simulated Runoff(mm) Relative Error(%)
Tuksai
1 1994 4079.2 3293.6 3329.47 -1.08
2 1995 3033.5 1375.56 2108.47 -53.28
3 1996 3246.46 1896.42 2410 -27.07
4 1997 2865.3 2348.3 2014.43 15.12
Average 3306.115 2228.47 2465.5925 -16.5775

©IJRASET (UGC Approved Journal): All Rights are Reserved 2368

 International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET)
ISSN: 2321-9653; IC Value: 45.98; SJ Impact Factor: 6.887
Volume 6 Issue III, March 2018- Available at www.ijraset.com

The model yields average efficiency of 47.5 % and 88 % in calibration and Validation Respectively in Pali catchment whereas
Tuksai Catchment Produces the efficiencies of 52.6% and 72 % in calibration and Validation Respectively. The Average relative
Error in Pali catchment area is -38.84 whereas Tuksai catchment has Relative error of -16.57. The R.E. – values indicating negative
values imply the model over estimates the runoff values. The least Deviation in RE values are seen in 1998 in Pali catchment i.e. -
5.91% during validation Whereas in tuksai catchment RE of -1.08% is observed in Calibration in 1994.

VI. CONCLUSIONS
The present study has been carried out to assess the surface runoff. This model gives quick estimate of generated runoff in a
particular location with reasonably good accuracy. The Predictions are found to be lower than actual observe direct runoff of the
catchment. Inaccuracy of the input data may lead to improper outcome of the model as lots of parameters are involved in the model.

REFERENCES
[1] K. Geetha, S. K. Mishra, T. I. Eldho & Sangeeta Verma (2014), “A Modified SCS-CN Based Model For Long Term Hydrologic Simulation”, International
Journal of Civil, Structural, Environmental and Infrastructure Engineering Research and Development (IJCSEIERD) ISSN(P): 2249-6866; ISSN(E): 2249-7978
Vol. 4, Issue 2, Apr 2014, 19-32.
[2] R. Vinithra, L. Yashodha (2016), “Rainfall-Runoff Modelling Using SCS-CN Method: A Case study of Krishnagiri District”, Tamilnadu, International journal
of science and Research (IJSR) ISSN(online) : 2319-7064, Volume 5 Issue 3, March 2016
[3] Draft Report, “Integrated State Water Plan For Amba Valley”, Government of Maharashtra, 2018
[4] K. Geetha & S. K. Mishra, T. I. Eldho and A. K. Rastogi & R. P. Pandey (2007), “SCS-CN-based Continuous Simulation Model for Hydrologic Forecasting”,
Water Resource Management (2008) 22:165–190 DOI 10.1007/s11269-006-9149-5.
[5] S. K. Mishra, R. P. Pandey, M. K. Jain, Vijay P. Singh (2007), “A Rain Duration and Modified AMC-dependent SCS-CN Procedure for Long Duration
Rainfall-runoff Events”, Water Resource Management (2008) 22:861–876 DOI 10.1007/s11269-007-9196-6
[6] Ashish Bansode, K.A. Patil (2014), “Estimation of Runoff by using SCS Curve Number Method and Arc GIS”, International Journal of Scientific &
Engineering Research, Volume 5, Issue 7, July-2014 1283, ISSN 2229-5518
[7] XIAO Bo, WANG Qing-Hai, FAN Jun, HAN Feng-Peng and DAI Quan-Hou (2011), “Application of the SCS-CN Model to Runoff Estimation in a Small
Watershed with High Spatial Heterogeneity”, Article in Pedosphere 21(6):738-749 • December 2011, DOI: 10.1016/S1002-0160(11)60177-X.
[8] Ministry of Agriculture, Govt. of India, Handbook of Hydrology, New Delhi, 1972

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