1 Introduction to statistical thinking

Exercise 1.1 Exercise 1.3

These are not the only “correct” answers – they 1. Days late 0 1 2 3 4 5
are representations of the types of answers that
Frequency 19 7 2 1 0 1
could be given.

1. In any sporting contest there are many variables 2. Depth(feet) 3.6–4 4.1–4.5 4.6–5 5.1–5.5 5.6–6 6.1–6.5
– in an individual sport an injury may make a Frequency 3 4 4 4 8 6
difference to performance, and in a team game
suspensions to key players may come at a bad 3. Any data ticked in the table below could be secondary
time. In a knockout competition it only has to data to you if someone else collected and recorded it.
happen once. In a league these effects are more The secondary column is ticked only in cases where the
spread out. data is likely to be difficult for you to collect yourself.
2. Find out as much detail as possible – whether
there is a fixed time the journey is to be done (can P S Qual Discrete Continuous
you avoid rush hours) – find out if there alternative a) Make ✓ ✓

routes in case of roadworks – any known model ✓ ✓

roadworks planned. colour ✓ ✓

3. The intensity of the radiation and the distance price ✓ ✓

from where people are will be major factors along mileage ✓ ✓
with the type of radiation. As people use phones engine size ✓ ✓
more for internet as well as texts and calls, the
service ✓ ✓
level of use may grow beyond the level planned history
when the transmitters were erected. b) venue ✓ ✓
People’s tolerance to radiation will vary greatly, type of race ✓ ✓
making decisions about what is “safe” very number of ✓ ✓
difficult. riders
make ✓ ✓
Exercise 1.2
model ✓ ✓
1. Later in the text you will be able to calculate the Top speed ✓ ✓
probability of 5H in 10 tosses as 0.246, so about a of riders
quarter – but “guessing” the proportion from a few c) size ✓ ✓
trials is very hard. power ✓ ✓
2. It is possible that all scores came up 3 or 4 times makes of ✓ ✓
but it is likely that they didn’t. Getting none of any car it fits
particular score you specify in advance is rare in cost ✓ ✓
20 throws, but if you don’t nominate a score of type of ✓ ✓
interest then you will see a blank about 15% of the connection
time. For a particular score it is about 2.5%. d) name ✓ ✓

3. Somewhere around half your values will be 1. length ✓ ✓

In theory, your largest value can be anything, but speed of ✓ ✓

values of above 5 only occur about 3% of the time. flow
You might have got a high number, but generally height of ✓ ✓
small numbers are much more common. If you source
were to do this once a minute for a year you would whether it is ✓ ✓
used
average a score of at least 20 once somewhere in all for tourism
those trials. So 100 is possible but extremely rare.

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Introduction to statistical thinking 1
 P S Qual Discrete Continuous P S Qual Discrete Continuous
e) quality ✓ ✓ j) age ✓ ✓

type ✓ ✓ origin of ✓ ✓
stone
volume/ ✓ ✓
mass number of ✓ ✓
workers
consistency ✓ ✓
orientation ✓ ✓
colour ✓ ✓
mass/ ✓ ✓
f) length ✓ ✓
volume
mass ✓ ✓
height ✓ ✓
taste ✓ ✓
shape ✓ ✓
length of ✓ ✓
k) number of ✓ ✓
life buildings
cost ✓ ✓
heights of ✓ ✓
quality ✓ ✓ buildings
g) rate of fall ✓ ✓ value of ✓ ✓
buildings
time of ✓ ✓
storm value of ✓ ✓
business
depth lying ✓ ✓
number of ✓ ✓
temperature ✓ ✓
people
volume of amount of ✓ ✓
snow (for ✓ ✓ leisure space
run off into
rivers) use of ✓ ✓
buildings
causing ✓ ✓
hazard l) number of ✓ ✓

h) batting ✓ ✓ cars
average number of ✓ ✓
accidents
home runs ✓ ✓
average
units ✓ ✓
speed
on-base ✓ ✓ (at different ✓ ✓
percentage times of
day)
Right/left ✓ ✓
handed number of ✓ ✓
people per
height ✓ ✓
car
[huge number of stats collected – these are a types of ✓ ✓
sample] vehicle
i) height ✓ ✓

weight ✓ ✓
The answers have some suggestions about possible
reach ✓ ✓
data in the different contexts. What question you
speed ✓ ✓
want to answer would help to decide a list of the
running
data you would like to collect. You cannot always
speed ✓ ✓
swimming collect the data you want – it may be too expensive,
or you may not have the authority to collect it.
is it a
mother with ✓ ✓
cubs

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Introduction to statistical thinking 2
2 Measures of location and spread
Skills check 4. m f mf
( 3 + 5 + 2 + 0 + 2 +1 + 3 + 2 + 0 ) 25 27 675
1. a) =2
9 55 18 990
b) nine values ⇒ median is 5th ⇒ median = 2 62.5 16 1000
c) 5 − 0 = 5 67.5 15 1012.5
d) mode is 2 (appears three times) 75 22 1650
(7 + 8 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 8)
85 14 1190
2. a) = 6.83 100 14 1400
6
b) 6 values ⇒ median between 3rd and 4th ∑ f = 126 ∑mf = 7917.5
⇒ median = 6.5 Mean is 62.8 cm
c) 8 − 6 = 2
d) mode is 6 (appears 3 times) 5. m f mf
8 115 920
Exercise 2.1 20.5 46 943
1. a) most often is 3 times ⇒ mode is 77 30.5 36 1098
b) ten values ⇒ median between 5th and 6th 45.5 22 1001
⇒ median 76.5
68 14 952
770
c) mean = = 77 ∑ f = 233 ∑mf = 4914
10
2. a) highest frequency is 11 ⇒ mode is 4 Mean is 21.1 minutes
b) 39 litters ⇒ median is 20th in order
6. m f mf
⇒ median is 4
161 5000 7 35 000
c) = 4.13 12 500 82 10 25 000
39
3. Estimate of mean before exercise = 90.8 17 500 45 787 500
22 500 24 540 000
m f mf
27 500 13 357 500
64.5 5 322.5
74.5 8 596 40 000 4 160 000
84.5 22 1859 ∑ f = 175 ∑ mf = 290 5000
94.5 29 2740.5 Mean is $16 600
104.5 13 1358.5
114.5 5 572.5
Exercise 2.2
∑ f = 82 ∑mf = 7449 1
1. × 10 = 2.5 ⇒ LQ is 3rd value which is 75
4
Estimate of mean after exercise = 109 3
× 10 = 7.5 ⇒ UQ is 8th value which is 77
m f mf 4
84.5 9 760.5 1
2. × 39 = 9.75 ⇒ LQ is 10th value which is 3
94.5 12 1134 4
104.5 25 2612.5 3
× 39 = 29.25 ⇒ UQ is 30th value which is 5.
114.5 17 1946.5 4
124.5 9 1120.5 1
3.  × 36 = 18 ⇒ median is midway between 18th
134.5 7 941.5 2
144.5 3 433.5 and 19th which are both 64 ⇒ median 64
∑ f = 82 ∑mf = 8949 1
× 36 = 9 ⇒ LQ midway between 9th and 10th
The mean pulse rate was approximately 18 beats 4
per minute faster after the warm-up exercises. which are 59 and 62 ⇒ LQ = 60.5
© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Measures of location and spread 1
 3
× 36 = 27 ⇒ UQ midway between 27th and 3. ∑f = 210 ∑ xf = 72 675 ∑ x2 f = 25178672.5
4
72 675 25178672.5 2
28th which are both 69 ⇒ UQ = 69 x= = 346 grams σ2 = −x
210 210
IQR = 69 − 60.5 = 8.5 = 133.006…
1 σ = 11.5 grams
4. × 45 = 22.5 ⇒ median is 23rd ⇒ 28
2 75 293
1 4. x = = 2.5 σ 2 = − x 2 = 3.52
× 45 = 11.25 ⇒ LQ is 12th ⇒ LQ = 23 30 30
4 2.1 83.1
3 5. x = = 0.3 σ 2 = − x 2 = 11.8
× 45 = 33.75 ⇒ UQ is 34th ⇒ UQ = 34 7 7
4 ⇒ σ = 3.43
IQR = 34 – 23 = 11
6. σ 2
=
∑ (x − x ) 2

=
44.3
= 2.77
1 N 16
5.  × 20 = 10 ⇒ median midway between 10th and
2 7. σ 2 = 19 735.4 = 533.389...
45 + 54 37
11th ⇒ = 49.5
2 ⇒ σ = 23.1.
1
LQ: × 20 = 5 ⇒ LQ midway between 5th and 6th 8. 50 is close to the middle, but it looks as though the
4
distribution has more above 50 than below, so
17 + 23
⇒ = 20 estimate mean around 52.
2
3 Know that the bulk (95%) of a normal distribution is
UQ: × 20 = 15 ⇒ UQ midway between 15th
4 within 2 standard deviations of the mean. This is quite
74 + 82 like a normal shape and the bulk of observations are
and 16th ⇒ = 78
2 between 30 to 70, so estimate st. deviation about 10.
IQR = 78 – 20 = 58
1 Exercise 2.4
6.  × 14 = 7 ⇒ median midway between 7th and 8th
2 1. mean = 5 × 3.6 + 62.5 = 80.5
17 + 22
⇒ = 19.5 Variance = 25 × 5.3 = 132.5
2
1 2. mean = 10 × 8.2 + 1055 = 1137
LQ: × 14 = 3.5 ⇒ LQ is 4th ⇒ 14
4 Variance = 100 × 3.22 = 322
3
UQ: × 14 = 10.5 ⇒ UQ is 11th ⇒ 32 446.8
4 3. a) mean = = 55.85
IQR = 32 – 14 = 18 8
b) 10,12,11.5,13,13,14,15.5,17
Exercise 2.3 106
c) mean = = 13.25
1. a) ∑x = 221 ∑x2 = 3291 8
221 3291 55.85 − 32
x = = 13.8 σ 2 = − x 2 = 14.9 d)
9
= 13.25 (check)
16 16
σ = 3.86 5

Check on calc 4. a) x f xf x2f

b) ∑ f = 118 ∑xf = 753 ∑x2f = 5027 9 5 45 405
753 5027 11 14 154 1694
x = = 6.38 σ 2 = − x 2 = 1.88
118 118 13 3 39 507
σ = 1.37
15 2 30 450
Check on calc if it allows frequency table entry ∑ f = 24 ∑ xf = 268 ∑ x   f = 3056
2

2. ∑ xf = 26141 ∑x2f = 1 942 739

26141 1942739 268 3056
x = = 74.3 σ 2 = − x 2 = 3.97 X = = 11.2 mins, σ X2 = – X 2 = 2.64
352 352 24 24
σ = 1.99

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Measures of location and spread 2
 b) c) −37
x f xf x2f 2. = −1.85 ⇒ mean = a – 1.85
20
0 5 0 0
1529
1 14 14 14 σ2 = − (−1.85)2 = 73.0275
20
2 3 6 12
σ = 73.0275 = 8.55 (3 s.f.)
3 2 6 18
∑ f = 24 ∑ xf = 26 ∑x f = 44
2 3. ∑ x = (5 × 97) + 314 = 799
2
26 44 1623 ⎛ 314 ⎞
X = = 1.08 σ X2 = – X 2 = 0.660 −⎜ ⎟ =
6.25...
24 24 97 ⎝ 97 ⎠
2
d) X = 11.2 = 9 + 2 × X check ∑ x 2 ⎛ 799 ⎞
−⎜ ⎟ =
6.25...
97 ⎝ 97 ⎠
σ X2 = 2.64 = 4 × σ X2 check
∑ x = 7188
2

5. a)
919 60 773
M f Mf M2f 4. a) x = = 65.6 σ2 = − x 2 = 31.9
14 14
–2 < x ≤ 2 0 12 0 0
b) ∑ x = x × 15 = 957
2< x ≤ 4 3 63 189 567
∑ x2 = (5.582 + x 2 ) × 15 = 61 524[rounding]
4<x≤6 5 32 160 800
c) Total marks scored = 919 + 957 = 1876
6<x≤8 7 21 147 1029
1876
8 < x ≤ 10 9 8 72 648 overall mean = = 64.7
29
10 < x ≤ 18 14 4 56 784
5. Arrange in order:
∑ f = 140 ∑ Mf = 624 ∑ M    f = 3828
2
0, 1, 3, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 8, 11, 12, 12, 14, 15, 28, 34
624
b) M = = 4.46 16 values ⇒ LQ between 4th and 5th, median between
140
8th and 9th and UQ between 12th and 13th
3828
σ M2 = – M 2 = 7.48 ⇒ LQ is 3.5, median is 8, UQ is 13.
140
⇒ IQR = 9.5
c) mean = 2500 M + 5000 = 16 143
Variance = 25002 × σ M2 = 46 729 592 338
6. a) x = = 67.6
5
6. a) –0.5 < T ≤ 0.5
23044
0.5 < T ≤ 1.5 σ 2 = − x 2 = 39.04
5
1.5 < T ≤ 2.5  ⇒ σ = 6.25
2.5 < T ≤ 3.5 6.25
b) b = = 0.625 a = 67.6 − 50 × b = 36.35
10
M f Mf M f
2

0 312 0 0 −23.2
1 479 479 479
7. i) ∑ ( x − a) = −23.2 ⇒ x − a = 20
= −1.16

2 243 486 972 x = 8.95 ⇒ a = 10.11

3 119 357 1071 ii) σ 2 =
∑ ( x − a) 2

− ( x − a )2 =
211.23
− (−1.16)2 = 9.2159
∑ f = 1153 ∑ Mf = 1322 ∑ M    f = 2522
2 n 20
σ = 3.04 (3 s.f.)
1322 2522
b)=
M = 1.15 σ M2 = – M 2 = 0.873 703
1153 1153 8. ∑ x = 703 ⇒ x = 10
= 70.3
c) mean time = 18.2
σ2 =
∑x 2

− ( x )2 =
49 495
− (70.3)2 = 7.41
variance of time = 21.8 n 10
σ = 2.72 (3 s.f.)
Summary exercise 2
150
9. ∑ ( x − 40) = −23 = ∑ x − 25 × 40 ⇒ ∑ x = 977
1. Mean = =6
25 ∑ ( x − 40)2 = 347 = ∑ x 2 − 2 × 40 × ∑ x + 25 × 402
Variance =
1535
− 62 = 25.4 ⇒ ∑ x 2 = 347 + 78 160 − 40 000 = 38 507
25

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Measures of location and spread 3
10. i) Total height of boys = 15 × 172 = 2580; total 11. 4-year-olds: mean 99.4, standard deviation 9.65
height of girls = 12 × 167.5 = 2010 14-year-olds: mean 77.1, standard deviation 7.60
Total height of all 27 pupils = 4590, mean height 4-year-olds have a higher pulse rate on average
4590 and a greater variation in pulse rates.
= = 170
27

ii) 5.38 2
=
∑h 2
b
− 1722
15
⇒ ∑ hb2 = 15 × (5.382 + 172 2 )
= 444 194.166

5.65 2
=
∑h 2
g
− 167.52
12
⇒ ∑ hg2 = 12 × (5.652 + 167.52 )
= 337 058.07
444 194.166 + 337 058.07
σ2 = − 1702 = 35.268
27
σ = 35.268 = 5.94

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Measures of location and spread 4
3 Representing and analysing data
Skills check
1. a) 12; 9; 19
b) 4; 4; 5

Exercise 3.1
1. Type A Type B
(1) 5 2
(3) 4 2 0 3
(5) 9 7 7 5 5 3
(9) 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 1 4 4 (1)
(10) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 (11)
(4) 2 2 1 0 5 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 (14)
(3) 9 8 7 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 (9)
Key:
 5|4|7 means 45 grams for Type A and 47 grams for Type B

a) Type A: Median is 44, IQR = 47 − 39 = 8; Fruit: median is 19 g; IQR is 26 – 12 = 14 g

Type B: Median is 51, IQR = 55 − 49 = 6 Vegetables: median is 5 g; IQR is 8 – 3 = 5 g.
c) On average Type B plums are heavier than
On average vegetables have only about one quarter
Type A plums. Type A plums are more variable
of the carbohydrates found in fruit, and there is
in weight than Type B plums.
much less variability in the amounts also.
d) Type B because they are heavier and less
variable. Exercise 3.2
2. Before: median = 81, IQR = 92 − 72 = 20; 1. On average resort B is hotter than resort A.
after: median = 94, IQR = 100 − 87 = 13 Temperatures are more variable in resort A
The pulse rates are faster (or higher) on average than in resort B. It would also be useful to have
after than before and have less variability. information about the temperature at different
3. January: median = 22.55; IQR = 23.9 – 21.65 = 2.25
times of the year, hours of sunshine and the
April: median = 21.5; IQR = 22.3 – 20.4 = 1.9 amount of rainfall.
2. a) Males paid more. Half females less than
On average there is very little difference in weights $40 000, only quarter males. Highest earners
in January and April, but there is considerably equal, also lowest almost equal, very few males
more variability in weights in January. on lower salaries. Median approximately 5000
4. Male: median = 169.5; IQR = 176 – 163 = 13 more for males.
b) The average starting salary is similar for males
Female: median = 179.5; IQR = 189 – 173 = 16
and females with the females’ salaries varying
On average the females have a longer wingspan by more than the males’. It may be that the males
about 10 cm, and their wingspans have a little stay with the college longer which could
more variability. account for their average salaries being higher
in 1991–1992.
5. Fruit
Vegetables
3. a) 2010
(1) 3 0 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 (12)
(7) 9 9 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 8 (2) 2015

(5) 6631 026 (1)

(2) 403 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Key: 2|1|3 means 12 grams in fruit and 13 grams

 b) Greater variation in 2010; fewer employees on
in vegetables average in 2015.

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Representing and analysing data 1
4. a) LQ, Median, UQ are f
5
Fruit: 126, 147, 161;
Vegetables: 85, 99, 148;
4
Seafood: 84, 84, 84

Frequency density
b) box-and-whisker plots show a summary of
3
the distribution but seafood has used a single
serving size. 2
c) f

Fruit 1

0 x
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Vegetables
Protein (grams)

0 x
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 b) interval m f mf m2 f     
5. The long jump has given the best scores on 0–15 7.5 18 135 1012.5
average, with the 100 metres on average about –25 20 14 280 5600
50 points lower and the 1500 metres around –30 27.5 11 302.5 8318.75
200 points lower on average. The long jump and
–35 32.5 16 520 16900
1500 metres have similar amounts of variability
–40 37.5 21 787.5 29531.25
but the 100 metres has a little less. The 1500
–45 42.5 18 765 32512.5
metres is negatively skewed with a longer tail
of low scores (it is the always the last event of a –50 47.5 15 712.5 33843.75
gruelling 2 day programme, which may provide an –55 52.5 11 577.5 30318.75
explanation for the distribution) –65 60 6 360 21600
Totals 130 4440 179637.5
Exercise 3.3
∑f = 130; ∑ mf = 4440; ∑ m2 f = 179637.5
1. Length (cm) 20–50 50–60 60–65 65–70 70–80 80–90 90–110
4440 179637.5
Number of
x= = 34.2; Variance = − x 2 = 215.34
27 18 16 15 22 14 14 130 130
plants
Standard deviation = 215.34 = 14.7(3 s.f.)
Frequency
0.9 1.8 3.2 3 2.2 1.4 0.7 c) the daily protein intake in the second country is
density
f
noticeably higher (around 11 grams) on average
4 than the first, and there is much less variability
in protein intake in the second country (standard
3
deviation is less than half that of the first country).
Frequency density

2 3. The data are continuous, grouped in unequal

intervals so the appropriate diagram is a histogram
1 (a cumulative frequency diagram would also be
appropriate – students will meet this later in this
0 x chapter)
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Heights (cm) Time (minutes, Number
Interval Frequency
correct to the of
width density
2. a) nearest minute) children
Protein (grams) 0–15 –25 –30 –35 –40 –45 –50 –55 –65 1–15 115 15 7.7
Number of people 18 14 11 16 21 18 15 11 6 16–25 46 10 4.6
Frequency density 1.2 1.4 2.2 3.2 4.2 3.6 3 2.2 0.6 26–35 36 10 3.6
36–55 22 20 1.1
56–80 14 25 0.56

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Representing and analysing data 2
 8
f
Exercise 3.4
7 1. a) median is 64, LQ is 60.5, UQ is 69

6 b) Pulse rates Number of women

5 51–55 4
Frequency density

4
56–60 5
61–65 12
3
66–70 8
2
71–75 4
1 76–80 2
0
81–85 1
x
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Time (minutes) 9 .5
median= 60.5 +
c) median ×=
5 64.5
4. 12
Interval 0 .5
Frequency LQ
LQ= 60.5 + ×=
5 60.7
Salary Frequency width 12
density
(£’000s) 6 .5
UQ
= 65.5 +
UQ ×=
5 69.6
£0 < x ≤ £10,000 7 10 0.7 8
£10,000 < x ≤ £15,000 82 5 16.4 2. a) median is 28, LQ is 23, UQ is 34 (12th, 23rd
£15,000 < x ≤ £20,000 45 5 9 and 34th in list)
£20,000 < x ≤ £25,000 24 5 4.8
b) Age Number of women
£25,000 < x ≤ £30,000 13 5 2.6
17–20 7
£30,000 < x ≤ £50,000 4 20 0.2
21–24 6
f 25–28 12
18
16
29–32 7
14 33–48 13
Frequency density

12
c)
10
8 50
45
6
40
Cumulative frequency

4 35
2 30
25
0 x
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 20
Interval width ( £ '000s ) 15
10
5. a) f 5
0.10
0
0.09 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
Age (years)
0.08
Relative frequency density

0.07 d) Reading off the graph – median is 28.5, LQ is

0.06 24.5, UQ is 35 – by interpolation these are
0.05
10
0.04 median
median = 25 + × 4 = 28.3;
0.03
12
5
0.02 LQ = 21 +
LQ × 4 = 24.3;
0.01 6
2
0 x UQ
UQ = 33 + × 16 = 35.5
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 13
Time, t (minutes)

1 3
b)  × 14 + × 7 =9.625 so approximately
2 8
10 pupils took between 10 and 15 minutes.

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Representing and analysing data 3
3. a)
Salary Frequency
Cumulative Exercise 3.5
frequency 3 × ( 35.7 − 32.1)
1. a) AA:
: = 1.6875
£0 < x ≤ £10,000 24 24 6 .4
£10,000 < x ≤ £15,000 127 151 3 × ( 89.2 − 95.3 )
B:
B: = − 1.62
£15,000 < x ≤ £20,000 45 196 11.3
3 × ( 54.0 − 56.5 )
£20,000 < x ≤ £25,000 24 220 C:
C: = − 1.04
7 .2
£25,000 < x ≤ £30,000 13 233
£30,000 < x ≤ £50,000 4 237 b. Group A has the largest coefficient (using the
absolute value).
240

2. a) AA:: 90.1 − 2 × 85.1 + 79.3 = − 0.074

220
200
180 90.1 − 79.3
Cumulative frequency

160
B: 102 . 7 − 2 × 84.2 + 71.1
140
B: = 0.171
120 102.7 − 71.1
100
C: 59.3 − 2 × 52.1 + 41.0
80
C: = − 0.213
60
40
59.3 − 41.0
20
0 b) C is the most skewed
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Salary ( £ '000s )
c) First measure has order C, B, A – the same as
b) median = $13 700, lower quartile = $11 400, the second order (below)
upper quartile = $18 000 84.1 − 86.2
A:
A: = − 0.339
c) Twice the median salary is £27400 Reading up 6 .2
from there to graph and across to CF axis gives 79.3 − 85.3
B:
B: = − 0.349
approximately 228 or approximately 9 out of 17.2
56.1 − 53.1
237 or about 4% of the employees earn more C:
C: = 0.361
8 .3
than twice the median salary.
511
4. 3. a)=
x = 31.9
Time, t Number Cumulative 16
(minutes) of pupils frequency
0<t≤2 6 6 b) 2 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 (9)

2<t≤5 8 14 3 0 2 3 4 (4)
4 2 5 (2)
5<t≤8 15 29
5 1 (1)
8 < t ≤ 12 14 43
12 < t ≤ 20 7 50 Key:
 3| 2 means 32 years old
a) f c) median is 29, LQ is 27, UQ is 33.5
50
d) IQR = 6.5 – fences at 33.5 + 1.5 × 6.5 = 43.25
Cumulative frequency

40
and 27 – 1.5 × 6.5 =17.25, 45 and 51 are outliers
30
20 e)
10

0 x * *
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Time (minutes)
0
b) the median = 7.3 minutes 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

c) the interquartile range = 10 – 4 = 6 minutes The ages are heavily skewed to the right
f) 
(positive) – showing a long tail of older
applicants.

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Representing and analysing data 4
4. a) Median is 49.5 (average of 45, 54), LQ is 20
2. 0 0 1 3 3 4 6 7 8 8 (9)
(average of 17, 23), UQ is 78 (average of 74, 82)
1 1 2 2 4 5 (5)
so IQR is 58.
2 8 (1)
Fences are at 20 – 1.5 × 58 (< 0 not possible)

and 78 + 1.5 × 58 = 165 so 182 is only outlier. 3 4 (1)

Key:
 1|2 means 12 passengers
b) y

3. a) it is continuous data in unequal time intervals.

* b) 9.5 minutes to 14.5 minutes

c) y
0 x
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 6

Frequency density
5
c) The data is positively skewed because there is a
4
longer tail at the longer waiting times
3
d) A zero waiting time occurs when there is a train 2
at the platform and the passenger does not have 1
to wait. 0 x
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Time
Exercise 3.6
Number
Time Mid-
1. The pulse rates after the PE were higher on of
to exit interval mf m2f
average and has more variability. flights
terminal m
(f )
13.2 15.42 5–6 12 5.5 66 363
2. a)=x Variance=
= 1.1, Variance − x 2= 0.075 7–9 15 8 120 960
12 12
10–14 12 12 144 1728
b) The new diet has a larger weight loss on average
15–19 8 17 136 2312
than the traditional diet, and less variability.
20–29 11 24.5 269.5 6602.75
3. On average the plants are longer in garden A than 30–49 14 39.5 553 21843.5
in garden B. The overall range is slightly bigger for ∑ f = 72 ∑ mf =1288.5 ∑ m 2 f =33809.25
garden B than for garden A but the inter-quartile
1288.5
range is bigger for garden A than for garden B. =
d) x = 17.90,
This means that there is more variation in the 72
central 50% of the data for garden A than for 33809.25
=
Variance
Variance −=
x 2 149.3
garden B. 72
σ
⇒= =
149 .3 12.2
Summary exercise 3
e) it would reduce both the mean and the standard
1. a) y deviation (spread) of the times because it is
losing values all at one end of the distribution.

4. i)
Time (to 16–20 21–30 31–35 36–45 46–60
0 x
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 nearest
second)
b) They are heavily positively skewed – all of the
Frequency 18 24 10 12 15
bottom half of the distribution is in the interval
Interval 5 10 5 10 15
0–4 minutes which is much less than the top
width
half.
Frequency 3.6 2.4 2 1.2 1
c) the delays at the second airport were greater density
on average and with more variability than
at the first airport.

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Representing and analysing data 5
 b) 5 5 7 8 (3)
Frequency density (per second)
4 6 3 (1)
7 4 (1)
3
8 4 7 9 (3)
9 0 3 3 3 5 5 9 (7)
2
Key:
 6|3 means adult literacy rate is 63%
1
c) negatively skewed (long tail of low life expectancies)
0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Time (seconds)

ii) Interval midpoints are 18, 25.5, 33, 40.5 and 53,
so the estimate of the mean is given by
x≈
(18 × 18) + ( 25.5 × 24 ) + (33 × 10) + ( 40.5 × 12) + (53 × 15) 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
x

79
d) positively skewed – long tail of high GNI values
2547
= = 32.24...
79
Estimate of mean time is 32 seconds.
iii) For a set of 79 values the LQ is the 20th and
the UQ is the 60th. These lie in the intervals x
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
21–30 and 36–45 respectively. The smallest
possible IQR would be if LQ = 30.5 and UQ = e) positively skewed – long tail of high populations
35.5, so the smallest possible IQR = 5 seconds.

5. i) For 25 values, the median is the 13th in

ascending order, the LQ is the midpoint of the
6th and 7th,
the UQ is the midpoint of the 18th and 19th. 0 x
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Values are 0.41, 0.325 and 0.52 seconds. Population in millions
ii)
7. Time (minutes) 3–6 7–8 9–10 11–12 13–15 16–20
Desktop
computers Number of patients 15 12 17 15 16 15
Interval width 4 2 2 2 3 5
Tablets
Frequency density 3.75 6 8.5 7.5 5.3 3

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

9
Time (seconds)
8
iii) Desktop computers are quicker (on average), 7
Frequency density

and the two types have similar variability. 6

5
6. a) 0 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 (7) 4
1 2 3 8 8 (4) 3

2 6 (1) 2
1
3 3 3 4 (3)
4 4 (1) 0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
5 6 (1) Time (minutes)

6 9 (1)
Key:
 3|3 means rate is 33 deaths per thousand
births

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Representing and analysing data 6
8. O
 n average decathletes score best in the long jump,
about 60 points more than in the 100 metres, and
the shot has the lowest scores by some way – on
average about 200 points less than the long jump.
Both the long jump and shot are negatively skewed
with long tails of low scores where 100 metres
is positively skewed. The variability of the three
disciplines is not very different.
y

100 metres

Long jump

Shot put

x
700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150
points

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Representing and analysing data 7
4 Probability
Skills check 4. a) H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6
11 1
1. a) b) T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6
12 6
2. HH, HT, TH, TT b)
1 2 3 4 5 6

Exercise 4.1 H 2 3 4 5 6 7

1. a) A{1, 2, 4} B{1, 4} C{2, 3, 5} D{3, 6} T 3 4 5 6 7 8

1 1 1 1
b) , , , c) 2 5. a)
2 3 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6

d)
1
e) A ∩ D = ∅ ⇒ Prob = 0
1 1 2 3 4 5 6
6 2 2 4 6 8 10 12
1
f) A ∪ B = {1, 2, 4} ⇒ Prob = 3 3 6 9 12 15 18
2
2. a) A′ is a consonant is chosen 4 4 8 12 16 20 24

b) A = {A, I, E}
B = {B} 5 5 10 15 20 25 30
C = {A, B, C, D, E, G, I, M } D = {C, E } 6 6 12 18 24 30 36
1 1 8 2
c) , , , d) {A, I, E} 2 1 1
3 9 9 9 b) i) P(3) = = ii) P(5) =
36 18 18
1 1
e) f) P(A ∩ D) = 4 1 1
3 9 iii) P(6) = = iv) P(10) =
4 36 9 18
g) P(A ∪ B) =
9
3. a,b) your results 6. a)
1 2 3 4 5 6
c) On average 10 times 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
d) Student’s own answer 2 1 2 2 2 2 2
e) Your results
3 1 2 3 3 3 3
4. b) On average five times 4 1 2 3 4 4 4
d) On average between 3 and 4 times 5 1 2 3 4 5 5

Exercise 4.2 6 1 2 3 4 5 6

1. VV, OO, CC, VO, VC, OC, OV, CV, CO 7 3 1 1

b) P(3) = P(5) = = P(6) =
2. VO, VC, OC, OV, CV CO 36 36 12 36

3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7. a)
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 X 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 X 5 6 7 8 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
3 4 5 X 7 8 9 2 1 0 1 2 3 4
4 5 6 7 X 9 10 3 2 1 0 1 2 3
5 6 7 8 9 X 11 4 3 2 1 0 1 2
6 7 8 9 10 11 X 5 4 3 2 1 0 1
4 2 2 1 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
a) = b) = c) 0
30 15 30 15
6 1 2 1
b) P(3) = = P(5) = = P(6) = 0
36 6 36 18

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Probability 1
Exercise 4.3 4. Sample space is HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH,
30 15 THT, TTH, TTT
1. a) =
64 32 1 2 1 1
25 a) b) = c)
5 B BB 8 8 4 4
8 64
5. 2
W WWW 720
24
5 B 8
3
8 3 15 8 36
G BG W G WWG 720
8 64
3 36
5 15 3 R WWR 720
B GB 9 8
3 8 64
8 G 3 36
W WGW 720
3 8
2
3 9 8 24
9 W G G WGG 720
8 G GG
64
3 36
3 R WGR 720
8
30 15 9
b) =
56 28 3
W WRW 720
36
8
20 3
4 B BB 8 36
56 R G WRG 720
7
2 24
R WRR 720
B 4 8
5
10
8 3 15 3 36
7 G BG W GWW 720
56 8
2
5 15 8 24
B GB W G GWG 720
3 7 56
8 3 36
G 4 R GWR 720
8
9
2 6 4 24
7 G GG W GGW 720
56 3 2 8
1
10 9 8 6
G G G GGG 720
2. Let G = use gym at least once a week 3 18
3 R GGR 720
8
9
1 1
G
5
MG
3 4 36
W GRW 720
8
2
8 18
Men R G GRG 720
3
2 2 2 18
5 ~G M ~G R GRR 720
3 5 1 3 8
10
3 3 36
3 G WG W RWW 720
2 10 8
4 3
5 Women 8 36
W G RWG 720
2 24
4 R RWR 720
1 1 9
8
4 ~G W ~G
10 1
4 36
W RGW 720
3 8
2 1 3 1 2
a) b) + = R
9
G 8
G RGG 720
18
5 5 10 2
2 2 18
R RGR 720
3. Let N be the event ‘starts a new job’ 9 8

F be the event ‘is fired from a job’ 4

W RRW 720
24
8
3
F 0.0018 8 18
0.03 R G RRG 720
1 6
N R RRR 720
8
0.06 0.97 ~F 0.0582
3 24 1
a) b) P(WWW) = =
0.03
F 0.0282 10 720 30
0.94
~N 36 1
c) marked on tree diagram – 6 paths all =
720 20
0.97
~F 0.9118 6 3
so P(all different) = =
20 10
a) 0.9118 b) 0.0864 c) 0.0018

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Probability 2
Exercise 4.4 If A is the event that Student A does the
homework and B is the event that Student B does
1. a) Die 0.19
0.2 the homework:
a) P( B ) = 0.72 + 0.1 = 0.82
Wear
0.95 0.8
b) P ( A ∩ B ) = 0.6 × 0.82 = 0.492
Survive 0.76
c) P( A ∩ B ′) = 0.6 × 0.18 = 0.108
Die 0.03
0.05 0.6
~Wear P( A′∩ B ) = 0.4 × 0.82 = 0.328
P(one student does homework)=0.492+0.072=0.564
0.4
Survive 0.02
0.328
P( A|one student does homework)= = 0.752 (3s.f .)
b) P{no belt + survived} = 0.02 (2%) 0.436
4. w
2. 3
Faulty
3 ~w
100 300
B
x G 153 282
1
3 97 Good
97 364 542
100 300
is the information given. All other cells in the table

2 4
2 100 Faulty 300
and row/column totals can be worked out
3
y w ~w
98 196 B 211 49 260
100 Good 300
G 153 129 282
3 4 7 364 178 542
a) P(faulty) = + =
300 300 300
4 260 130 49
a) P(B) = = b) P(B ∩ ~w) =
300 4 542 271 542
b) P( y| faulty) = =
7 7 49 153
300 c) P{~w|B} = d) P{G|w} =
260 364
3. Student A
25 7
Homework 5. a) b)
173 25
0.6
6. 1
L
1
4 24

B
0.4 1 3 3
~L
No homework 6 4 24
1 1
1 5 L
Student B 15
3
Homework 0.72 T
0.9 1 4 4
~L
2 5 15

Diary 1 1
10 L
20
0.8
0.1 C
No homework 0.08
9 9
~L
Homework 0.1 10 20
0.5
0.2 1 1 1 19
No diary P(late) = + + =
24 15 20 120

0.5
No homework 0.1

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Probability 3
7. 0.02 A 0.004 2. P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

x
  ⇒ P(A ∩ B) = 0.7 + 0.4 − 0.82 = 0.28
0.98 ~A 0.196 = P(A) × P(B)
0.2
so A, B independent.
0.05 A 0.035
0.7 3. P(A ∩ B) = P(B|A) × P(A) = 0.5 × 0.6 = 0.3
y
But P(B) = 1 − P(B ′) = 1 − 0.7 = 0.3
0.95 ~A 0.665
so P(A ∩ B) = P(B) ⇒ A′ and B are mutually
0.1
exclusive.
0.09 A 0.009

z 4. a) P(X|Y ) = P(X ) = 0.4 (independence)

0.91 ~A 0.091 b) P(Y|X ) = P(Y ) = 0.5 (independence)

a) 0.035 c) P(X ′ ) = 0.6

b) 0.004 + 0.035 + 0.009 = 0.048 P(X ′ ∩ Y ) = 0.6 × 0.5 = 0.3.
0.035 35 59 100 59
c) P(Y|A) = = = 0.729 5. a) i) ii) iii)
0.048 48 208 208 124

8. 8
R 84
12 S H
14
3 S 65 59 124
12
6 R B 27 22 49
12 6 B 9
14 84 O 16 19 35
A 108 100 208
6 9
1 6 R
14 84
2 12 B 3 b) P(hatchback) ≠ P(hatchback|silver)
12
so type of car not independent
8 B 12
14 84 6. Outcomes for each event are the key
10 20
14
R
84 A = {(1, 1)} B = {(any, 2), (any, 4), (any, 6)}
4
1 8 12 C = {all except (5, 5), (4, 6), (6, 4), (5, 6), (6, 5)}
R
2 12 4 B 8 D = {(any, 3), (any, 6)}
14 84
B
F = {(5, 5), (4, 6), (6, 4), (5, 6), (6, 5), (6, 6)}
8 8
4 14
R
84

E can be checked against these – Too many to
12
B 2 write easily.
12
6 B 6 a) A, B are mutually exclusive and not exhaustive
14 84
b) A, D are mutually exclusive and not exhaustive
6 8 14 7
a) P(R) = + == c) C, E are not exhaustive and not mutually
24 24 24 12
exclusive
12 12 20 6 50 25
b) i) P(same colour) = + + + = = d) C, F > 9 and <10 are both mutually exclusive
84 84 84 84 84 42
and exhaustive – see lists
12 12
+ e) B, D not mutually exclusive (2, 6) in both and
24 12
ii) P(A|same colour) = 84 84= = not exhaustive (1, 5 in neither)
50 50 25
84 A, E mutually exclusive – if total = 2 it can’t be
f) 
>9, but total can be 3 or 4 so not exhaustive
Exercise 4.5 7. a) Yes – if you have 0 heads you don’t have at
1. a) P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) = 0.7 × 0.4 = 0.28 least one
b) P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) b) Yes – If you don’t have 0 haves then you have at
least one
= 0.7 + 0.4 − 0.28 = 0.82
c) Yes – If you don’t have at least one head you
c) P(A′∩ B) = 0.3 × 0.4 = 0.12
must have 4 tails – which satisfies D
d) 2 heads and 2 tails satisfies both A′,C′ so not
mutually exclusive

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Probability 4
Summary exercise 4 1
P (A ∩ B ) 6= 1
1. a) 7 56
ii) P(A|B) = =
Purple P( B ) 2 4
9 90
3
Purple 1
8
2 16 P(A ∩ B ) 6 2
10
9 Pink 90 iii) P(B|A) = = =
P( A ) 5 5
12
8 Purple 16
2
9 90
10 1
Pink b) i) No P(A ∩ B) = ≠0
6
1
Pink
2 ii) No P(B | A) ≠ P(B) or P(A | B) ≠ P(A)
9 90
5. a) 1
R 1
4 12
56 16 72 8
b) P(purple) = + = =
90 90 90 10 2
3
R ()1
3
1
56 3
W 4
4
56 7
c) P(both purple|2nd purple) = 90
= = E
72 72 9 2
R 1
3 9
90 1
1
2
3 W ( 16 )
2. 0.98
Pos 0.00098 D+ 1
W 18
1
3

D 1
R 1
0.001 0.02
4 32
Neg 0.00002 D–
1 1
4
R ( 18 )
2 3
3
W 32
4
H
0.002 Pos 0.001998 ~D+
2
0.999 R 1
3
~D 3 4
4 W ( 38 )
0.998 Neg 0.997002 ~D– 1 1
W 8
3

a) P(P ) = 0.00098 + 0.001998 = 0.002978 1 1 11

b) P(R, R) = + =
0.001998 12 32 96
b) P(~D|P ) = = 0.671 1
0.002978
32 3
c) since two thirds of the positive results are from c) P(1st hard| R, R) = =
11 11
those who do not have the disease she could 96
argue that telling patients that they want to run 6. 0.04 D 0.01
more tests would be better
x
3. a) Mutually exclusive means if B happens A can 0.96 ~D 0.24
not happen ⇒ P(A|B) = 0 0.25
1 1 5
b) P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) = + =
2 3 6 0.05 D 0.0225

c) No – if they are mutually exclusive they are not 0.45

y
independent (unless one is certain and the other 0.95 ~D 0.4275
impossible). 0.3

4. a) i) P(A ∩ B ′) + P(A′ ∩ B′) = P(B ′) D 0.006

0.02
1 1
 ⇒ P(A ∩ B ′) + = z
12 3
1 1 1 0.98 ~D 0.294
 ⇒ P(A ∩ B ′) = − =
3 12 4
b) i) 0.4275
ii) 0.24 + 0.4275 + 0.294 = 0.9615
P(Y ∩ ~ D ) 0.4275
c) P(Y | ~ D) = = = 0.445
P(~D ) 0.9615

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Probability 5
7. P(F ) = 0.6 P(S ) = 0.4 P(F ∩ S) = 0.35 12. P(H ∪ B) = P(H) + P(B) − P(H ∩ B)
⇒ P(F ∪ S) = 0.65 ( = 0.6 + 0.4 − 0.35) (with at = 0.6 + 0.3 − 0.1 = 0.8
least one) a) P(neither) = 0.2
a) P(not win either) = 1 − 0.65 = 0.35 b) P(only H) = 0.5 P(only B) = 0.2
b) P(F ∩ S) = 0.35 ≠ P(F ) × P(S ) = 0.6 × 0.4 = 0.24 0.5 5
P(H| only one) = =
c) sportsmen and women have good spells of form 0.5 + 0.2 7
(and bad) where they play well (or badly) for
periods. 13. i) P(attend) = 0.5+ 0.5 × 0.7 = 0.85
1 1 1
8. a) P(A ∩ B) = × = 0.35
2 3 6 ii) P(voicemail | attend) = = 0.41 (2 d.p.)
0.85
1 2 1
b) P(A ′ ∩ B ′) = × =[ A ′, B ′ also independent] 14. To score 6, Jamie can toss a head and both dice show
2 3 3
1 2 2 1
1 3 (probability = × × = ), or if he tosses a tail,
c) P(A | B) = P(A) = [definition of independence] 3 6 6 27
2 he needs to have a 2 and a 3 on the dice (probability =
9. Zero – largest score possible is 12 2 1 2 2
× 2 × × = ).
10. a) P(A ∩ B) = P(A) + P (B) − P(A ∪ B) 3 6 6 27
1
= 0.3 + 0.4 − 0.65 1
= 0.05 So P ( H |6 ) = 27 = .
1 2 3
P( A ∩ B ) 0.05 +
b) P(A | B) = = = 0.125 27 27
P( B ) 0.4
725
c) P(A ∪ C) = P(A) + P(C ) = 0.3 + 0.5 = 0.8 15. i) P(M) = = 0.465
1559
11. a) P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) 345
ii) P(M and Y) = = 0.221
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A) × P(B) 1559
b) let x = P(Anji goes) y = P(katrina goes) 345
iii) P(M | Y ) = = 0.488 ≠ P( M ) so M and Y are
1 5 707
 ⇒ xy = and = x + y − xy not independent events.
3 6
7 1
⇒ = x + y ⇒ 7 = 6x + 6y ⇒ x = 362
6 3y iv)  P(F | Y ) = = 0.512 [= 1 – P(M | Y )]
707
6
⇒7= + 6y ⇒ 7y = 2 + 6y2
3y
16. i) 25–30
7y = 2 + 6y2
ii) 2.6 × 5 = 13
⇒ 6y2 − 7y + 2 = 0
⇒ (3y − 2) (2y − 1) = 0 iii) 8 + 13 + 22 + 21 + 18 = 72
2 1 13
⇒ y = or iv) P(20–25 | not over 25) = = 0.62
3 2 21
1 1 2
If y = 2 , x = ; if y = , x =
3 2 2 3
2
so P(Anji goes) is either 1 or .
2 3

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Probability 6
5 Probability distributions and
discrete random variables
Skills check c) Pr{X = r} =
k
; r = 1, 2, 3, 4
r −1
1. 12, 6, 4, 3 k
no – probability function gives P(X = 1) = .
2. a = 0.4 − b 0
k
d) Pr{X = r} = ; r = 1, 2, 3, 4
3.2 + 2(0.4 − b) + 4b = 4.6 r +1
60
2b = 0.6 yes – take k = (to make sum = 1)
77
a = 0.1, b = 0.3 2. a) z 1 2 3 4
Exercise 5.1 4 3 2 1
P(Z = z) 10 10 10 10
1. a) not a discrete random variable since
∑P(X = x) ≠ 1 1 2 3 4 5
b) z
b) a discrete random variable since ∑P(X = x) = 1 1 1 1 1 1
and no negative values (negative values of x are P(Z = z) 5 5 5 5 5
ok, but not negative probabilities) 1
c) a discrete random variable since ∑P(X = x) = 1 c) total probability = 36k so k = .
36
and no negative values
w 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
d) not a discrete random variable since P(X = 5) < 0
P(W = w) 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1
2. a) X = score on the die 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36
1 1
P(X = x) = , x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 d) total probability = 16k so k = .
6
6
b) Y = 2 x score on the die
1 r 1 2 3 4
P(Y = y) = , y = 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12
6 1 3 5 7
c) Z = the square of the score on the die P(H = r) 16 16 16 16
1
P(Z = z) = , z = 1, 4, 9, 16, 25, 36 12 4
6 3. a) P(A) = P(X = 3, 4, 5) = =
⎧0 if the score on the die is a factor of 6 15 5
d) W = ⎨ 6 2
⎩1 otherwise. b) P(B) = P(X = 1, 2, 3) = =
15 5
2 1 3 1

P(W = 0) = ; P(W = 1) = [ 1, 2, 3, 6 are c) P(A ∩ B) = P(X = 3) = =
3 3 15 5
factors of 6]
1
3. x P( A ∩ B ) 1
0 1 2 d) P(A|B) = P( A| B ) = = 5 =
P( B ) 2 2
1 1 1
P(X = x) 4 2 4 5
1
4. a) i) a = 1 – (0.2 + 0.1 + 0.3 + 0.1) = 0.3 P( A ∩ B ) 1
e) P(B|A) = P( B | A ) = = 5 =
ii) P(X ≥ 2) = 0.8 P( A ) 4 4
1 5 5
b) i) 6k = 1; k = ii) P(X ≤ 0) = 5k = ⎛ 25 ⎞ 12
6 6 4. a) Sum of probabilities is ⎜ ⎟ k so k = = 0.48
c) i) a = 1 – (0.4 + 0.2 + 0.3 + 0.1) = 0 ⎝ 12 ⎠ 25
ii) P(X ≥ 9) = 0.1 b) i) P(Z > 1) = 0.24 + 0.16 + 0.12 = 0.52
P( Z = 4) 0.12 3
Exercise 5.2 ii) P( Z = 4| Z > 1) = = =
P( Z > 1) 0.52 13
1. a) Pr{X = r} = k; r = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 1 1
1 5. c = and p =
yes – take k = (to make sum = 1) 30 6
15
k Exercise 5.3
b) Pr{X = r} = ; r = 1, 2, 3, 4
r 1. a) E(X ) = 1 × 0.2 + 2 × 0.1 + 3 × 0.2 + 4 × 0.3
12
yes – take k = (to make sum = 1) + 5 × 0.2 = 3.2
25
© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Probability distributions and discrete random variables 1
 b) E(X ) = ( −2) × 0.2 + (−1) × 0.3 + 0 × 0.1 b) E(X ) = (−2) × 0.1 + (−1) × 0.2 + 0 × 0.3
+ 1 × 0.3 + 2 × 0.1 = −0.2 + 1 × 0.3 + 2 × 0.1 = 0.1
1 1 1 1 E(X   2 ) = (−2) 2 × 0.1 + (−1) 2 × 0.2 + 02 × 0.3
c) E( X ) = 5 × + 7 × + 10 × + 15 ×
2 4 8 16 + 12 × 0.3 + 22 × 0.1 = 1.3
1 123 11
+ 20 × = =7 Var(X   ) = 1.3 − 0.12 = 1.29 (note this is the same

16 16 16
4 3 relative distribution as in part a so the variances
2. a) E( X ) = 1 × +2× +3 are the same).
10 10
2 1 20 1 1 1 1 1
× +4× = =2 c) E( X ) = 1 ×
+ 2× +3× + 4× + 5×
10 10 10 2 4 8 16 16
1 1 1 1 1 31 15
b) E(Y ) =1 × + 2 × + 3 × + 4 × + 5 × = = 1
5 5 5 5 5 16 16
15 1 1 1 1
 = = 3 (or argue by symmetry) E( X ) = 1 × + 4 × + 9 × + 16 ×
2
5 2 4 8 16
3. a) i) a = 1 – (0.3 + 0.2 + 0.1 + 0.1) = 0.3 1 83 3
+ 25 × = =5
ii) E(X ) = 1 × 0.3 + 2 × 0.2 + 3 × 0.1 + 4 × 0.3 16 16 16
2
+ 5 × 0.1 = 2.7 3 ⎛ 15 ⎞ 367
Var( X ) = 5 − ⎜1 ⎟ = = 1.43
E(X ) = 1 × 0.3 + 4 × 0.2 + 9 × 0.1 + 16
iii)  2 16 ⎝ 16 ⎠ 256
× 0.3 + 25 × 0.1 = 9.3 2. For each probability distribution function,
1
b) i) 6k = 1 so k = calculate the mean and variance.
6 5 4 3
1 2 2 1 a) E( X ) =1 ×+2× +3×
ii) E ( X ) = 5 × + 6 × + 8 × + 12 × 15 15 15
6 6 6 6
45 2 1 35 1
= = 7.5 +4× + 5× = =2
6 15 15 15 3
1 2 2 5 4 3
iii)  E( X 2 ) = 25 × + 36 × + 64 × E( X2) =1 ×
E(X +4× +9×
6 6 6 15 15 15
1 369 2 1 105
+ 144 × = = 61.5 + 16 × + 25 × = = 7
6 6 15 15 15
2
4. Y is the larger score showing when two dice are ⎛ 1⎞ 14
Var(X ) = 7 − ⎜ 2 =⎟ = 1.56
thrown. Calculate E(Y ) 3 ⎝ ⎠ 9
y 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 1 1 1
b) E(Y ) =1 ×+ 2× +3× + 4×
1 3 5 7 9 11 6 6 6 6
P(Y = y) 36 36 36 36 36 36 1 1 21
+ 5× + 6× = = 3.5
6 6 6
1 3 5 7
E(Y ) =1× + 2× +3× +4× 1 1 1 1 1
36 36 36 36 E(Y 2 ) =1 × + 4 × + 9 × + 16 × + 25 ×
9 11 161 17 6 6 6 6 6
+ 5× +6× = = 4 1 91 1
36 36 36 36 + 36 × = = 15
6 6 6
5. a + b = 0.6 ⇒ 4a + 4b = 2.4 2
E(X ) = 3.4 = 0.1 + 0.4 + 0.3 + 4a + 5b 1 ⎛ 1⎞ 35
Var( X ) =
15 − ⎜ 3 ⎟ = =2.92
⇒ 2.6 = 4a + 5b 6 2 12 ⎝ ⎠

b = 0.2, a = 0.4 1 2 3 4
c) E(W ) =2 × +3× +4× + 5×
36 36 36 36
6. a + b = 0.3 ⇒ 6a + 6b = 1.8
5 6 5 4
E(X ) = 7.4 = 0.8 + 6a + 2.1 + 10b + 2.2 +6× +7× +8 × +9×
36 36 36 36
⇒ 2.3 = 6a + 10b
3 2 1
b = 0.125, a = 0.175 + 10 × + 11 × + 12 ×
36 36 36
P{X > E(X)} = P(X >7.4) = P(X >10, 11) = 0.325 252
= = 7
36
Exercise 5.4
1 2 3
E(W ) = 4 ×2
+ 9× + 16 ×
1. a) E(X ) = 5 × 0.1 + 6 × 0.2 + 7 × 0.3 + 8 × 0.3 36 36 36
+ 9 × 0.1 = 7.1 4 5 6
+ 25 × + 36 × + 49 ×
E(X ) = 25 × 0.1 + 36 × 0.2 + 49 × 0.3 + 64
2
36 36 36
× 0.3 + 81 × 0.1 = 51.7 5 4 3
+ 64 × + 81 × + 100 × + 121
Var(X ) = 51.7 − 7.12 = 1.29 36 36 36
© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Probability distributions and discrete random variables 2

2 1 1974 ⇒ 2.8 = 2a + 8b
× + 144 × = = 54.83
36 36 36 b = 0.3, a = 0.2
1974
Var(W )= − 7 = 5.83
2 E(X 2) = 1 × 0.1 + 4 × 0.2 + 16 × 0.3 + 64 × 0.3
36 + 256 × 0.1 = 50.5
3. a) i) a = 1 – (0.2 + 0.2 + 0.2 + 0.1) = 0.3 Var(X ) = 50.5 – 5.72 = 18.01

ii) E(X ) = 1
 × 0.2 + 2 × 0.2 + 3 × 0.2 + 4 × 0.3
Summary exercise 5
+ 5 × 0.1 = 2.9
25 12
E(X 2) = 1
 × 0.2 + 4 × 0.2 + 9 × 0.2 1. a) sum of probability = k ⇒k=
12 25
+ 16 × 0.3 + 25 × 0.1 = 10.1
12 6 18
Var(X ) = 10.1 – 2.92 = 1.69 b) P(X < 3) = + =
25 25 25
1 12 6 4 3
b) i) 6k = 1 so k = c) E( X ) =×
1 +2× +3× +4×
6 25 25 25 25
1 2 2 1 48
E( X ) = 3 ×
ii)  +4× + 5× +6× = = 1.92
25
6 6 6 6
1
27 2. a) sum of probability = 24 k ⇒ k =
= = 4.5 (or by symmetry) 24
6 3 4 5 5
b) E( X ) =3 × +4× +5× +6×
1 2 2 1 24 24 24 24
E( X 2 ) = 9 × + 16 × + 25 × + 36 ×
6 6 6 6 4 3
 +7× +8×
127 1 24 24
= = 21
6 6 132
= 5.5 (or by symmetry)
=
1 11 24
Var( X ) = 21 − 4.5 =
2
3 4 5 5
6 12 c) E( X ) =9 ×
2
+ 16 × + 25 × + 36 ×
24 24 24 24
4. y 1 2 3 4 5 6 4 3 784 2
+ 49 × + 64 × = = 32
24 24 24 3
11 9 7 5 3 1
P(Y = y) 36 36 36 36 36 36 2 5
Var(X ) = 32 − 5.52 = 2
3 12
11 9 7 5 3. a) 10.2 = 3.2 + 10a + 15(0.6 – a) ⇒ a = 0.4
E(Y ) =1× +2× +3× +4×
36 36 36 36 b) E(X )2 = 64 × 0.4 + 100 × 0.4 + 225 × 0.2 = 110.6
3 1 91
+5× + 6× = Var(X ) = 110.6 – 10.22 = 6.56
36 36 36
c) σ= 6.56= 2.56 ⇒ μ − σ= 7.64
11 9 7 5
E(Y ) =1 ×
2
+4× +9× + 16 × so P (X < µ – σ) = 0
36 36 36 36
4. X is not a discrete uniform distribution since the
3 1 301 13
+ 25 × + 36 × = = 8 probabilities are not equal.
36 36 36 36
 Y is a discrete uniform distribution as we are told
2
13 ⎛ 25 ⎞ that the die is unbiased so 1 – 6 each occur with
Var(Y ) =
8 − ⎜2 ⎟ = 1.97
36 ⎝ 36 ⎠ 1
probability .
6
5. a + b = 0.6 ⇒ 4a + 4b = 2.4
 Z is a discrete uniform distribution as we are told
E(X ) = 3.7 = 0.1 + 0.4 + 0.3 + 4a + 5b that the die is unbiased so 1 – 6 each occur with
⇒ 2.9 = 4a + 5b 1
probability , and each score on the top
b = 0.5, a = 0.1 6
corresponds with a different value of Y.
E(X  2 ) = 1
 × 0.1 + 4 × 0.2 + 9 × 0.1 + 16 × 0.1
+ 25 × 0.5 = 15.9 5. a) P(X = 8) = 0.3
Var(X ) = 15.9 – 3.72 = 2.21 b) E(X ) = 6 × 0.1 + 7 × 0.2 + 8 × 0.3 + 9 × 0.4 = 8
c) E(X  2 ) = 36 × 0.1 + 49 × 0.2 + 64 × 0.3
6. a + b = 0.5 ⇒ 2a + 2b = 1
+ 81 × 0.4 = 65
E(X ) = 5.7 = 0.1 + 2a + 1.2 + 8b +1.6
Var(X ) = 65 – 82 = 1
d) E(5 – 2X ) = 5 – 2E(X) = 5 – 16 = –11
e) Var(5 – 2X ) = (–2)2 × Var(x) = 4

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Probability distributions and discrete random variables 3
6. a) i) E(X ) = 0
 × 0.1 + 1 × 0.25 + 2 × 0.3 10. a) The total probability = 30k = (1 + 4 + 9 + 16)k.
+ 3 × 0.25 + 4 × 0.1 = 2 1
So k = .
E(X  2 ) = 0
 × 0.1 + 1 × 0.25 + 4 × 0.3 30
+ 9 × 0.25 + 16 × 0.1 = 5.3 1 4 9 16
b) E( X ) =1× +2× +3× +4×
Var(X ) = 5.3 – 2 = 1.3 ⇒
= σ 2
=
1.3 1.14 30 30 30 30
100 1
E(Y ) = 0
ii)   × 0.1 + 2 × 0.25 + 5 × 0.3 = = 3
30 3
+ 8 × 0.25 + 11 × 0.1 = 5.1 minutes
1 4 9 16
b) i) P(X = 3,4) = 0.35 c) E( X 2 ) =1× +4× +9× + 16 ×
30 30 30 30
ii) This is a conditional probability – ‘given event’ 354
is that she leaves once without waiting – total = = 11.8
30
probability of 0.35 from part i). For the event 2
of interest to happen, there needs to be 3 on ⎛ 1⎞
Var( X ) =11.8 − ⎜ 3 ⎟ =0.689
the first occasion and then 4 when she returns ⎝ 3⎠
– probability = 0.25 × 0.1 = 0.025. 11. a) The total probability = 28k = (0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4
P(more on return | leaves once) + 5 + 6 + 7)k.
= P(3 then 4 | 3 or 4 on first visit) 1
So k = .
0.025 1 28

= =
0.35 14 1 2 3 4
b) E( X ) =0 × 0 + 1 × + 2 × + 3× + 4 ×
28 28 28 28
7. a) a + b = 0.4 ⇒ 8a + 8b = 3.2
5 6 7 140
E(X ) = 9.05 = 1.4 + 8a + 2.7 + 1 + 11b +5× + 6× +7× = = 5
28 28 28 28
⇒ 3.95 = 8a + 11b
1 2 3 4
b) b = 0.25, a = 0.15 E(X 2) =0 × 0 + 1× + 4 × + 9 × + 16 ×
28 28 28 28
c) E(X 2) = 4
 9 × 0.2 + 64 × 0.15 + 81 × 0.3
5 6 7
+ 100 × 0.1 + 121 × 0.25 = 83.95 + 25 × + 36 × + 49 ×
28 28 28
Var(X ) = 83.95 – 9.052 = 2.0475
784
8. a) x = = 28
1 2 3 4 5 28
9 7 5 3 1 Var(X ) = 28 – 52 = 3
P(X = x) 25 25 25 25 25
c) Makes a loss if 0, 1, or 2 are successful (though 0
8
b) P(2 < X < 5)= P( X = 3,4)= 3
25 occurs with probability 0) – probability .
28
9 7 5
c) E( X ) = 1× +2× +3× d)
25 25 25
3 1 55 p –4000 –2500 –1000 500 2000 3500 5000 6500
+ 4× + 5× = = 2.2
25 25 25
9 7 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
d) E( X 2 ) =1× +4× +9× P(P = p) 0
25 25 25 28 28 28 28 28 28 28
3 1 155
+ 16 × + 25 × = = 6.2 1
25 25 25 E( P ) =
(−4000) × 0 + ( −2500) ×
28
Var(X ) = 6.2 – 2.22 = 1.36
2 3 4
9. a)
+ ( −1000 ) ×
+ 500 × + 2000 ×
28 28 28
x 10 12 15 16 18 20 24 25
5 6 7
+ 3500 × + 5000 × + 6500 ×
P(X = x) 0.1 0.2 0.05 0.05 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 28 28 28
98 000
b) E(X ) = 1 0 × 0.1 + 12 × 0.2 + 15 × 0.05 = = 3500
28
+ 16 × 0.05 + 18 × 0.2 + 20 × 0.1
+ 24 × 0.2 + 25 × 0.1 = 17.85 1 2
E( P 2 ) =
(−4000)2 × 0 + (−2500)2 × + ( −1000 )2 ×
28 28
c) E(X 2) = 1 00 × 0.1 + 144 × 0.2 + 225 × 0.05
+ 256 × 0.05 + 324 × 0.2 + 400 3 4 5
+ 5002 × + 2000 2 × + 35002 ×
× 0.1 + 576 × 0.2 + 625 × 0.1 28 28 28
= 345.35 6 7
Var(X ) = 345.35 – 17.852 = 26.7275 + 50002 × + 65002 ×
28 28

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Probability distributions and discrete random variables 4
 532 000 000 13.  i) Draw a tree diagram to represent this:
= = 19 000 000
28
FIRST SECOND No Probability
Var(P ) = 19 000 000 – 35002 = 6 750 000
2 6
G = green card G 2 90
9
N = not green card
12.  i) G
7
Second throw 3
9 N 1
21
90
10
1 2 2 3 3 3
1 2 3 3 4 4 4
2 3 4 4 5 5 5
First throw 2 3 4 4 5 5 5
7
3 4 5 5 6 6 6 10
3
9
G 1
21
90
3 4 5 5 6 6 6 N
3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 42
9 N 0 90

So the probability distribution is: So the probability distribution is:

Score 2 3 4 5 6 Number of green cards 0 1 2
1 4 10 12 9 7 7 1
Probability Probability
36 36 36 36 36 15 15 15

1 14 ii) Mean number of green cards =

ii) E( X ) = {2 + 12 + 40 + 60 + 54} = 1 3
36 3 (0 + 7 + 2) = = 0.6
15 5
1 206
E( X 2 ) =
{4 + 36 + 160 + 300 + 324} =
36 9
2
206  14  10
Var( X ) = −  =
9  3  9

iii) Standard deviation is 1.054 and mean is

4.66…, so 2, 3 and 6 lie more than one
standard deviation from the mean, therefore
14 7
probability is =
36 18

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6 Permutations and combinations
Skills check 6. To be odd it must finish with 1, 3 or 5, to be
greater than 30 000 it must start with 3, 4 or 5:
1. HH, TH, HT, TT
these two conditions interact so need to consider
2. H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6 starting with 3 or 5 separately from starting with 4.

Exercise 6.1 Start with 4 – then 3 digits can go in last place and
other 3 in any order – gives 3 × 3! = 18 start with 3
1. a) 6! = 720 b) 3! = 6
or 5 – then only two odd digits left to go in last
c) 12! = 479 001 600 place, and other 3 in any order – gives
7! 5! 8! 2 × 2 × 3! = 24
2. a) =7 b) = 20 c) =1
6! 3! 8! so the total is 18 + 24 = 42 ways.
3. 4! = 24 4. 8! = 40 320 7. a) 3 × 4! = 72 b) 4! = 24
5. 8! = 40 320 6. 5! = 120 8. a) Treat classical as 1 object and arrange the 9
7. 5! = 120 8. 10! = 3 628 800 objects (in 9! ways) then the classical can be
arranged in 6! ways. So 9! × 6! = 261 273 600
Exercise 6.2 ways
8! 15 !
1. a) =8 b) = 15 × 14 = 210 b) treat the types as 3 objects first (3! ways) – then
7! 13 ! arrange each group – so 3! × 3! × 5! × 6!
120 ! 6! = 3 110 400 ways
c) = 120 d) = 6 × 5 × 4 = 120
119 ! 3!
9. 4! × 3! = 144
18 !
2. a) = 13 366 080 b) 15P12 = 2.18 × 1011.
12 ! Exercise 6.4
3. P5 = 15 120
9
4. P4 = 3024
9 8!
1. a) 8 letters with 2 pairs so = 10 080
2!2!
5. 10
P8 = 1 814 400 6. 8P5 = 6720
6!
7. 8P3 = 336 8. 6P4 = 360 b) 6 letters with 1 pair so = 360
2!
6!
Exercise 6.3 2. a) 6 letters with 1 set of 3 so = 120
3!
1. Treat as 5 objects, with the men together as one b) 6 distinct letters so 6! = 720
(5! ways) then ×2 for the order of the men:
3. 8 digits with a set of 3 and two pairs so
2 × 5! = 240
8!
2. a) 8! = 40 320 = 1680
3! 2! 2!
b) Treat as 6 objects, with the couples together as 8!
4. 8 digits with a set of 3 and a set of 5 so = 56
one (6! ways) then ×2 twice for the order of the 3!5!
couples: 2 × 2 × 6! = 2880 5. Any code for the first block can be paired with any
3. a) Treat as 8 objects, with the poetry books from the second – so calculate how many ways for
together as one (8! ways) then ×3! for the order each block and multiply them. Each is similar to

Q4 so ⎛⎜
of the poetry books: 3! × 8! = 241 920 8! ⎞ ⎛ 8! ⎞
⎟×⎜ ⎟ = 28 × 70 = 1960
b) Treat as 8 objects, with the poetry books ⎝ 2!6! ⎠ ⎝ 4!4! ⎠
together as one (8! ways) as before but then the 6. The same reasoning as Q4 applies – 16 digits with
order of the poetry books is fixed: a set of 6 and another set of 10 gives
1 × 8! = 40 320 ⎛ 16 ! ⎞ = 8008. Note that this has to be bigger
⎜ ⎟
4. Only 4 letters can start, then the other 4 can be ⎝ 10 ! 6 ! ⎠
used in any order: 4 × 4! = 96 than the answer to 5 was because any code which
satisfied it would also satisfy this case – and there
5. Has to finish with A, then the other 4 can be used are others.
in any order: 4! = 24

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Permutations and combinations 1
7. a) the 4 spaces are indistinguishable so this is like a) if both girls are in the team then there are
10 ! ⎛9⎞
10 objects with a set of 4 giving = 151 200
4! ⎜ ⎟ = 84 ways to choose the other three team
⎝3 ⎠
b) if the 4 spaces have to be together then it members from 9 people.
becomes a problem with arranging 7 84 2
objects – so 7! = 5040 P(both girls in team) = =
462 11
b) if there are no adults in the team, need to choose
Exercise 6.5 5 out of the other 6 people – so there are only 6
30 !
1. Choose 4 out of 30 is = 27 405 possible teams
26 ! 4 ! 6 1
20 ! P(no adults in team) = =
2. Choose 5 out of 20 is = 15 504 462 77
15 ! 5 ! c) in part b) we know the number of ways to have
n! n! no adults – rather than do 2, 3, 4 or 5 adults
3. a)  = - the denominators are
r !(n − r )! (n − r )! r ! to calculate this directly it is easier to find the
the product of the same two factorials in each number of teams with 1 adult and then take the
case. complement. For 1 adult, need to choose 1 out of
b) choosing r objects to assign to the ‘taken’ group 5 adults and then choose 4 out of the remaining 6
has a one-to-one correspondence with choosing people
the n – r objects to assign to the ‘left behind’ ⎛6⎞
5 × ⎜ ⎟ = 5 × 15 = 75 ways so there is a total of
group. 4 ⎝ ⎠
26 ! 81 possible teams which do not have at least two
4. a) Choose 4 out of 26 – so = 14 950
4 ! 22 ! adults – so the other 381 teams do have at least
b) Need to take away the case where there are no two adults.
vowels – where 4 letters are chosen from the 21 381 127
21! P(at least two adults in team) = =
consonants – which is = 5985, so with at 462 154
4 !17 ! ⎛ 30 ⎞
least one vowel is 14 950 – 5985 = 8965. 4. There are ⎜ ⎟ = 27405 ways to select 4 students
⎝ 4⎠
5. 20% of 25 riders means they have to select 5 at from the class of 30 with no restrictions. If there are
25 ! exactly 2 boys there are also 2 girls and there are
random – so = 53 130 ways.
5 ! 20 ! ⎛ 16 ⎞ ⎛ 14 ⎞
6. Two of the sample are now determined so they ⎜ ⎟ × ⎜ 2 ⎟ = 120 × 91 = 10920 ways to have this.
⎝ 2⎠ ⎝ ⎠
have to randomly select 3 out of 23, so there are 10920 104
23! P(exactly two boys in selection) = =
25
C2 × = 531300 27405 261
3!20!
= 0.398
Exercise 6.6 ⎛ 52 ⎞
1. there is 1 vowel so can choose 3 out of 4 letters for 5. There are ⎜ ⎟ = 6.35 × 1011 possible sets of
⎝ 13 ⎠
there to be no vowels and choose 3 out of 5 letters cards that the player can have – and
when there is no restriction:
⎛4⎞ ⎛ 39 ⎞
⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ = 8122425444 of these have no diamonds.
⎝3 ⎠ 4 2 ⎝ 13 ⎠
P(no vowel) = = = 8122425446
⎛ ⎞ 10 5
5 So P(player has no diamonds) =
⎜ ⎟ 6.35 × 1011
⎝3⎠
= 0.0128
2. there are 3 vowels in nine letters so can choose
4 out of 6 letters for there to be no vowels 6. there are 8! = 40320 orders the eight people can
and choose 4 out of 9 letters when there is no stand in. For each husband and wife to be together
restriction: there are 4! = 24 orders for the pairs to appear and
⎛6⎞ then each pair can appear in either order so there are
⎜ ⎟ 24 × 2 × 2 × 2 × 2 = 384 orders altogether.
⎝4⎠ 15 5
P(no vowel) = = = 384
⎛ 9 ⎞ 126 42
⎜ ⎟ P(each husband is beside his own wife) =
40320
⎝4⎠
1
3. There are ⎛⎜ ⎞⎟ = 462 ways to choose the team of
11 =
105
⎝ 5⎠
5 out of 11 people with no restrictions.
© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Permutations and combinations 2
Summary exercise 6 6. i) There are 9! = 362 880 permutations of 9
objects in a row.
1. There are 12 people being assigned into 4 groups
ii) There are 6 × 5 = 30 ways to choose the
12 !
of 3 – = 369 600 first and last consonants. The number of
3!3!3!3!
arrangements with consonants at start and end
2. There are 10 people in a line so there are a total of (and no other constraint) = 30 × 7! = 151 200.
10! possible arrangements. If they are all standing

If 3 vowels appear together (6 ways to order
in their couples you can think of 5 objects (the
them) there are 5! = 120 ways to put the 7 letters
couple) and then each couple can be arranged in
(with the vowels as a block) in for each of those
one of two ways so a total of 5! × 25 ways. P(each
6 orders. So the number of arrangements which
wife standing beside her husband)
start and end with a consonant and do have the
5! × 25 3840 1
= = = three vowels together = 30 × 6 × 120 = 86 400.
10! 3 628800 945

So the number of arrangements which start
3. 2, 3, 5, 7, 8 Divisible by 3 if sum of digits is and end with a consonant, and do not have
divisible by 3 the three vowels together = 151 200 – 86 400 =
∴ possible digits 2, 3, 7; 2, 5, 8; 3, 7, 8; 3, 5, 7 64 800.
3! arrangement of each i.e. 6.
7. i) 14
C 9 = 726 485 760
4 × 6 = 24 possible numbers divisible by 3
ii) Treating the 5 empty spaces together as one
Total no of possible numbers is 5!
object, this is 10! = 3 628 800
24 1
∴ probability = = ( ii )
5! 5 iii)1 − = 0.995
(i)
4. 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11
iv) Customers are more likely to take the empty
only differ by 1 if 6 and 7 together ∴ combine to parking space near the entrance to the store
1 number. than just randomly take any of the available
No of arrangement is 5! spaces, so the assumption would not be
but 6 and 7 have 2 arrangements. reasonable.
∴ total number of arrangements = 2 × 5!
= 240 If you arrange the 5 couples first (5! ways) then
8. i) 
each couple can be in 2 orders so 5!× 25 = 3840.
Total no of arrangements of 6 digits is 6!
ii) Lawyers or partners can be put first, then
240 1
∴ P(card differs from neighbour by 1) is = each group can be arranged in 5! ways, so
6! 3
5! × 5! × 2 = 28 800
5. If you choose 3 women and 2 men to sit in the
9. i) You need to choose 2 of the remaining 8
front row then there will be 4 women and 1 man in
people: 8C 2 = 28
the second row.
ii) All adults in the team can be done in 5 ways
Or you can choose 4 women and 1 man to sit in
(choose 4 out of 5); if there are no adults in
the front row and then there will be 3 women
the team you need to choose 4 out of the other
and 2 men in the second row. This is the same as
6 (6C 4 = 15), so a total of 20 ways.
choosing 3 women and 2 men!
iii) 2 girls in team – choose 2 out of 3 and 2 out of
Then for each of these choices of people in the
other 7: 3C 2 × 7C 2 = 3 × 21 = 63
rows, the 5 people in the row can be arranged in 5!
= 120 ways (for each row). 
3 girls in team – choose 1 out of the other 7
people: 7 ways.
Choosing 3 women (from 7) and 2 men (from
3) can be done in 7C3 × 3C 2 = 35 × 3 = 105 ways, so So at least 2 girls can be chosen in 70 ways.
altogether there are 2 × 105 × 120 × 120 ways or
3 024 000 possible ways the group can be seated.

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Permutations and combinations 3
7 The binomial distribution
Skills Check a) i) P (X = 0) = 10C0(0.5)0 0.510 = 0.000 977
ii) P (X = 1) = 10C1(0.5)1 0.59 = 0.009 77
1. a) 3 628 800 b) 6435
iii) P (X = 2) = 10C2(0.5)2 0.58 = 0.043 9
2. 10.4
iv) P (X = 3) = 10C3(0.5)3 0.57 = 0.117
Exercise 7.1
b) i) P(no more than 1 head) = 1 – P(0, 1 H) = 0.0107
1. a) 1 7 21 35 35 21 7 1
ii) P(at least 3 heads) = 1 – P(0, 1, 2 H) = 0.945
b) i) 35
iii) P(more than 3 heads) = 1 – P(0, 1, 2, 3 H)
ii) 21
= 0.828
c) remember that the 1 at the start is the number
11. a) P (X > 2) = 1 – P(0, 1, 2) = 1
 – (0.1422 + 0.3012
of ways of choosing no objects, so choosing 3
+ 0.2924) = 0.264
objects will be the 4th number and choosing 5
will be the 6th entry in the row. b) P (X ≤ 10) = 1 – P(11, 12) = 1.00

⎛ 10 ⎞ ⎛9⎞ 12. a) P (X ≤ 2) = P(0, 1, 2) = 0

 .003171 + 0.02114
2. a) i) ⎜ ⎟ = 210 ii) ⎜ ⎟ = 1
+ 0.06695 = 0.0913
⎝ 4⎠ ⎝0⎠
⎛ 15 ⎞ b) P (X > 19) = P(20) = 0.2520 = 9.09 × 10–13
⎛ 100 ⎞
iii) ⎜ ⎟ = 5005 iv) ⎜ ⎟ = 4950
⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 2⎠ 13. The distribution of the number correct for Suki is B
1
b) i) C2 = 45
10
ii) 11C6 = 462 (5, )
4
iii) 12
C12 = 1 iv) 50C20 = 4.71 × 1013 5
a) P(X = 0) = ⎛⎜ 3 ⎞⎟ = 0.237
3. a) P (X = 2) = 6C2(0.5)2 (0.5)4 = 0.234 ⎝4⎠
3 2
b) P (X = 5) = 6C5(0.5)5 (0.5)1 = 0.09375 ⎛5⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 3 ⎞
b) P(X = 3) = ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟
4. a) P (X = 2) = 6C5(0.3)2 (0.7)4 = 0.324 ⎝3⎠ ⎝ 4 ⎠ ⎝ 4 ⎠

b) P (X = 5) = 6C5(0.3)5 (0.7)1 = 0.0102 = 0.0879

5. a) P (X = 3) = C3(0.4) (0.6) = 0.142
12 3 9

b) P (X = 8) = 12C8(0.4)8 (0.6)4 = 0.0420

Exercise 7.2
6. a) P (X = 3) = 12C3(0.7)3 (0.3)9 = 0.00149 1. a) E(X ) = 35 × 0.5 = 17.5

b) P (X = 8) = 12C8(0.7)8 (0.3)4 = 0.231 b) Var(X ) = 35 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 8.75

0 10 2. mean = 75 × 0.4 = 30, variance = 75 × 0.4 × 0.6 = 18,
⎛1⎞ ⎛2⎞
7. a) P (X = 0) = 10C0   ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ = 0.0173 standard deviation = 18 = 4.24
⎝3⎠ ⎝3⎠
⎛1⎞ ⎛2⎞
5 5 3. a) n = 25, np = 20, so p = 0.8.
b) P (X = 5) = 10C5   ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ = 0.137 variance = 25 × 0.8 × 0.2 = 4 so
⎝3⎠ ⎝3⎠
7 8 standard deviation = 2
⎛3⎞ ⎛1⎞
8. a) P (X = 7) = 15C7   ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ = 0.0131 b) P(X > μ) = P(X > 20) = P(X = 21, 22, 23, 24, 25)
⎝4⎠ ⎝4⎠
⎛3⎞ ⎛1⎞
8 7  = 0.1867 + 0.1358 + 0.0708 + 0.0236
b) P (X = 8) = 15C8   ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ = 0.0393 + 0.0038 = 0.421
⎝4⎠ ⎝4⎠
4. np = 30; np(1 – p) = 21 so (1 – p) = 0.7, p = 0.3,
9. The distribution of the number of heads when I
n = 100
toss a fair coin 6 times is B(6, 0.5) so
5. a) mean = 20 × 0.8 = 16; variance = 20 × 0.8 × 0.2
a) P (X = 2) = 6C2(0.5)2 0.54 = 0.234
= 3.2 (using B(20, 0.8) distribution)
b) P (X = 5) = 6C5(0.5)5 0.51 = 0.09375
b) P(X < 17) = 1 – P(X = 17, 18, 19, 20)
10. The distribution of the number of heads when I    = 1 – (0.2054 + 0.1369 + 0.0576
toss a fair coin 10 times is B(10, 0.5) so   + 0.0115) = 0.589

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The binomial distribution 1
6. Var(X ) = 20 × p × (1 – p) maximum when p = 0.5. 4. a) mean = 6 × 0.5 = 3; variance = 6 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 1.5
(quadratic function in p is symmetric, zeroes at 0,
1 mean max is at 0.5, or use calculus to find max
b) ∑ xf = 0 + 10 + 30 + 48 + 56 + 60 + 42 = 246
246
if you have already covered that section of P1) ⇒ x = = 3
82
7. μ = 8 × 0.12 = 0.96; σ = 8 × 0.12 × 0.88 =0.919 ∑ x 2 f = 0 + 10 + 60 + 144 + 224 + 300 + 252
P(X < μ – σ) = P(X = 0) = 0.888 = 0.360 = 990
990
⇒ σ 2 = − 32 = 3.07
Exercise 7.3 82
c) No, the variance of 3.07 is more than double the
1. a) No – not a f  ixed number of trials.
variance given by the binomial model.
1
b) Yes, n = 10, p =
6 Summary exercise 7
c) No, since the balls are taken without
1. a) using B(10, 0.02) P(X = 0) = 0.9810 = 0.817
replacement the trials are not independent.
⎛5 ⎞
1 b) using B(5, 0.817) P(X = 4) = ⎜ ⎟ × 0.8174 × 0.183
d) approximately – with n = 5, p = - but if you ⎝4⎠
2
have more information about family history = 0.408
doctors would tell you that this is not exactly c) on average it is 70 × 0.183 = 12.8
accurate – but it is good enough for most
2. a) 0.04n = 5, so n is 125.
purposes.
b) now 0.04n = 3 so 75 people in second sample and
1
e) Yes, n = 25, p = (6 of 36 outcomes are variance = 75 × 0.04 × 0.96 = 2.88,
6
doubles) standard deviation is 1.70
f) No – the binomial always counts the numbers 3. a) using B(30, 0.1) P(X ≤ 4) = 0.0424 + 0.1413
of times something happens in a f  ixed number + 0.2277 + 0.2361
of trials. + 0.1771 = 0.825
b) P(X = 4) = 0.177
2. a) i) 0.0424 ii) 0.141
4. a) i) using B(5, 0.4) P(X ≤ 2) = 0.0778 + 0.2592
iii) 0.228 iv) 0.236 + 0.3456 = 0.683
b) the mode is 3 ii) P(X = 2, 3) = 0.3456 + 0.2304 = 0.576
c) mean = 30 × 0.1 = 3; variance = 30 × 0.1 × 0.9 b) using B(20, 0.4) P(X = 7) = 0.166
= 2.7 c) mean = 5 × 0.4 = 2, variance = 5 × 0.4 × 0.6 = 1.2,
3. a) independence and that probability not standard deviation = 1.2 = 1.10.
dependent on the time of day (questionable), 105
f  ixed number of trials is given and two
d) i) ∑ xf = 105; ∑ x 2 f = 349, so=
x = 2.1;
50
outcomes. n = 40, p = 0.08 
Var =
349
=
− 2.12 = 2.57; st. dev =
2.57 1.60
50
b) independence (f  ixed number of trials (screws)
is given and two outcomes) – constant These values do not support Louise’s belief.
ii) 
probability is ok if independence is ok. n = 48, The mean of 2.1 is close to the mean given by
p = 0.02 the binomial model but the standard deviation
of 1.60 is approximately 45% greater than that
c) need to assume the balls are indistinguishable
given by the binomial model.
by feel and the person drawing them can not
see the colour; and that they are mixed between 5. a) i) using B(40, 0.2)
draws – this is to establish independence and
constant probability; f  ixed number of trials is P(X ≤ 10) = 0.839
given and two outcomes. n = 50, p = 0.3
ii) using B(40, 0.12)
d) same as for part c with the additional assumption
⎛ 40 ⎞
that the ‘large’ number of balls in the drum is P(X = 5) = ⎜ ⎟ × 0.125 × 0.8835 = 0.187
large enough that the difference in probability ⎝ 5⎠
of getting any colour is negligible even when iii) using B(40, 0.4)
50 balls have been taken out and not replaced.
n = 50, p = 0.3 P(10 < X < 20) = 0.835

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The binomial distribution 2
 b) Binomial parameters are n = 750 and p = 0.28 b) using B(4, 0.09):
 mean = 750 × 0.28 = 210 and variance ⎛4⎞
= 750 × 0.28 × 0.72 = 151.2 i) P(X = 2) = ⎜ ⎟ × 0.912 × 0.092 = 0.0402
⎝2⎠
6. a) the table shows the probabilities up to 8 games
won (using B(15, 0.3)) by Ronnie correct to P(at least one) = 1 – P(none)
ii) 
4 dp. = 1 – 0.914 = 0.314

Games won 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Probability 0.0047 0.0305 0.0916 0.1700 0.2186 0.2061 0.1472 0.0811 0.0348

i) 0.219 c) need all n to work, so P(set works) = (1 – p)20

ii) fewer than half is up to 7, probability = 0.950 = 0.96620 = 0.50065... which is approx 50%.
0 – exactly half is not possible in an odd
iii)  10. a) using B(30, 0.1):
number of games ⎛ 30 ⎞
P(X ≤ 2) = 0.930 + 30 × 0.929 × 0.1 + ⎜ ⎟
this means he wins 2, 3, 4 or 5
iv)  ⎝ 2⎠
games – probability = 0.686 × 0.928 × 0.12 = 0.0424 + 0.1413
b) i) mean = 15 × 0.6 = 9; variance = 15 × 0.6 + 0.2277 = 0.411
× 0.4 = 3.6, σ = 3.6 = 1.90 ⎛ 32 ⎞
b) P(X = 2) = ⎜ ⎟ × 0.930 × 0.12 = 0.210
91 ⎝ 2⎠
ii) ∑ x = 91; ∑ x 2
= 853, so =
x = 9.1;
10 c) independence – that the beads go onto the string
 853
Var = =
− 9.12 = 2.st
49 ;σ
. dev =
2.49 1.58 randomly rather than the colours being chosen;
10
constant probability – that the number of beads
These values are close to those given by

in the bowl is large enough that the probability of
the binomial model and support Ronnie’s choosing a purple can be taken to stay the same.
claim.
11. ( 10C 8 × 0.728 × 0.282 ) + ( 10C 9 × 0.729 × 0.28) + 0.7210
7. a) i) 0.839 = 0.438 (3 s.f.)
ii) 0.107
iii) 0.831 12. i) 0.77 + ( 7C1 × 0.76 × 0.3) + ( 7C 2 × 0.75 × 0.32 )

b) For the binomial model the mean is 8 and the

= 0.647 (3 s.f.)
variance is 6.4. These values do not support Weather conditions quite often tend to persist for
 ii) 
Conn’s claim because of the high value of his several days at a time, so assuming independence
variance. (which is implied by random occurrences) is
unlikely to be a good assumption.
8. using B(18, 0.07):
If there are 1.2 faulty bulbs on average in boxes of
13. 
⎛ 18 ⎞ 20, then the probability of a particular bulb being
a) P(X ≤ 2) = 0
 .9318 + 18 × 0.9317 × 0.07 + ⎜ ⎟
× 0.9316 × 0.072 ⎝2 ⎠ faulty is 0.06.
P(0 or 1) = 0.94 20 + 20 × 0.06 × 0.9419 = 0.660 (3 s.f.)

= 0.2708 + 0.3669 + 0.2348 = 0.873
⎛ 18 ⎞
b) P(X = 4) = ⎜ ⎟ × 0.9314 × 0.074 = 0.0266
⎝4 ⎠

9. a) Conditions for the binomial are

• there are a f  ixed number of trials
• each trial must have the same two possible
outcomes
• the outcomes of the trials have to be
independent of one another
• the probability has to remain constant.
(give any two)

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The binomial distribution 3
8 The geometric distribution
Skills check  1
4. X ∼ Geo  
3 2  3
1. a) P ( A ) = , P ( B ∩ A ) = since 3 and 5 are odd 1
6 6 a) P ( X = 1) =
2 2 3
primes, so P ( B |A ) = 3 6 = . 3
3  2 8
6
b) P ( X > 3) =   =
3 1  3 27
b) P ( A′ ) = , P ( B ∩ A′ ) = since 2 is the only even
6 6  1
1 1 5. X ∼ Geo  
prime, so P ( B |A′ ) = 3 = .
6  2
3 1 1 1
a) P ( X = 2 ) = × =
6
1 11
 ( 2 sixes ) = ; P ( at least 1 six ) = , so
2. P 2 2 4
3
36 36  1 1
1 b) P ( X ≥ 4 ) = P ( X > 3) =   =
1
P ( 2 sixes|at least 1 six ) = 11 = .
36  2 8
36 11  1
6. X ∼ Geo  
Exercise 8.1  5
3
 4 1
1. a) P ( X = 2 ) = 0.25 × 0.75 = 0.1875 a) P ( X = 4 ) =   × = 0.1024
 5 5
b) P ( X > 3) = 0.253 = 0.015625 b) P ( 2 < X < 5) = P ( X = 3,4 )
2. a) P ( X = 2 ) = 0.8 × 0.2 = 0.16 = 0.128 + 0.1024 = 0.2304
b) P ( X ≤ 2 ) = P ( X = 1,2 ) = 0.2 + 0.16 = 0.36
7. a) X ∼ Geo ( 0.05) so E ( X ) = 20
3. a) P ( X = 8) = 0.97 × 0.1 = 0.0478
b) P ( X ≤ 5) = 1 − P ( X > 5) = 1 − 0.95 = 0.226
5

b) P ( X > 6 ) = 0.9 = 0.531

6
(3 s.f.)
4. a) P ( X = 5) = 0.4 × 0.6 = 0.0154
4
c) P ( X > 30 ) = 0.9530 = 0.215 (3 s.f.)
b) P ( X ≤ 5) = 1 − P ( X > 5) = 1 − 0.4 = 0.990
5

d) The mode of X is always 1 for any geometric

5. a) P ( X = 4 ) = 0.63 × 0.4 = 0.0864
random variable
b) P ( X = 6| X > 2 ) = P ( X = 4 ) = 0.0864
 1
8. a) N ∼ Geo  
6. If X is the number of spins until green is seen,  6
then X ∼ Geo ( 0.25) and 5 1 5
P ( X > 4 ) = 0.754 = 0.316 (3 s.f.) b) P ( N = 2 ) = × =
6 6 36
5
7. If X is the number of items inspected until first 5
c) P ( N ≤ 5) = 1 − P ( N > 5)1 −   = 0.598 (3 s.f.)
defective is seen, then X ∼ Geo ( 0.03) and 6
P ( X > 50 ) = 0.9750 = 0.218 (3 s.f.)
5
1 5
d) E ( N ) = = 6 , P { N ≥ E ( N )} = P ( N > 5) =   = 0.402
1  6
8. Josie has already lost three tosses, so it is the
6
probability that she loses the next four tosses as
well i.e. 0.54 = 0.0625 9. a) X ∼ Geo ( 0.5122 ) because the ‘success’ in the
context is when a girl is born (proportion
9. If X is the number of shots Marta has before she
51.22%)
first scores a goal, then X ∼ Geo ( 0.15),
P ( X > 8) = 0.858 = 0.272 (3 s.f.) b) E ( X ) =
1
= 1.95 (3 s.f.)
0.5122
Exercise 8.2 c) P ( X = 1) = 0.5122
1
1. E ( X ) = = 2.5 d) P { X ≥ E ( X )} = P ( X > 1) = 0.4878
0.4
1 Exercise 8.3
2. E ( X ) = = 10 1
0.1 1. a) Yes, p =
1 6
3. E ( X ) = = 5 ; P { X < E ( X )} = P { X < 5} b) No – this is a binomial context.
0.2
= 1 − P { X > 4} c) Close, but not a good model – the probability
= 1 − 0.84 = 0.5904 of taking a blue increases steadily as red balls
are removed.

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The geometric distribution 1
 d) Here, with a very large number of balls the Summary exercise 8
change in probability is relatively small so the
1. a) P ( X = 4 ) = 0.8 × 0.2 = 0.1024
3

geometric would be a reasonable model with

b) P ( X > 6 ) = 0.8 = 0.262 (3 s.f.)
6
1
p=
3 1
1 2. E ( X ) = = 1.11
e) Yes with p = 0.9
36 2
 2 1 4
f) No – this is a linear combination of random 3. a) P ( X = 3) =   × =
 3 3 27
variables.
1
2. Mode, mean, median: b) E ( X ) = = 3
1
5
[
a) 1, , 1 P ( X = 1) = 0.6 ] 3
 2
3
8
3 c) P ( X > E( X ) ) = P ( X > 3) =   =
 3 27
b) 1, 2.5, 2  P ( X = 1,2 ) = 0.4 + 0.6 × 0.4 = 0.64 
4. a) P ( X = 3) = 0.6 × 0.4 = 0.144
2
c) 1, 5, 4
 P ( X = 1,2,3) = 0.488; P ( X = 1,2,3,4 ) = 0.590 
b) P ( X > 3) = 0.6 = 0.216
3

3. a) Independence and the probability remains P ( X = 6 ) 0.65 × 0.4

c) P ( X = 6| X > 3) = =
constant over the whole day – which is P ( X > 3) 0.63
extremely questionable when many cars will be = 0.62 × 0.4 = 0.144
parked using timed payments. Would use
d) a) and c) are an example of the memoryless
p = 0.08 if the model was thought adequate.
property of the geometric distribution.
b) Independence and the probability remains
constant, and that you won’t have 48 which are
all faulty – a tiny probability so not a problem 1
to use the model. p = 0.02 E(X ) =
5.  = 10, P { X < E ( X )} = P ( X < 10 ) (3 s.f.)
0.1
c) Independence and the probability remains = 1 − P ( X > 9)
constant, which is reasonable provided the balls = 1 − 0.99 = 0.613
are mixed every time one is returned and the
draw is being made randomly (the balls can’t be  1
6. X ∼ Geo  
4
seen or distinguished by feel). p = 0.2 1
d) Independence and the probability remains a) P ( X = 1) =
4
3
constant, which is reasonable if the condition 3 27
b) P ( X > 3) =   =
above about random drawing, and if the  4 64
number of balls in the large drum is enough 7. 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime, so if X is the number of spins
that the probability of drawing a green stays until the first prime is seen then X ∼ Geo ( 0.5), and
close to 0.2. p = 0.2 P ( X > 4 ) = 0.54 = 0.0625.
_ 153
∑
4. a)  xf = 153; ∑f = 80; x =
80
= 1.9125 8. If X is the number of vehicles who reach Amir up to
(3 s.f.) and including the first one which stops then
 1 = 0.523 X ∼ Geo ( 0.02 ), and P ( X > 20 ) = 0.9820 = 0.668 (3 s.f.).
b) X ∼ Geo  
 1.9125
9. X ∼ Geo ( 0.3)
Number of 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 a) P ( X = 4 ) = 0.7 × 0.3 = 0.1029
3

casts
b) P ( X > 4 ) = 0.7 = 0.2401
4

Frequency 42 20 9 5 2 1 0 1
c) P ( X < 6 ) = 1 − P ( X > 5) = 1 − 0.75 = 0.832 (3 s.f.)
Expected 41.8 20.0 9.5 4.5 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.2
1
frequency 10. a) X ∼ Geo  
 3
c) There is a very close match between observed 3
 2  1 8
and predicted frequencies, and it would suggest b) ( X = 4 ) =     = = 0.0988 (3 s.f.)
i) P
3 3 81
the model was a good one if the results are to 1 2 1 5
ii) P ( X < 3) = P ( X = 1,2 ) = + × =
be believed (they are almost too good a fit!) 3 3 3 9
1
 c) E( X ) = = 3
1
3

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The geometric distribution 2
  d) This is a new geometric random variable c) P(Novak gets a third throw)
5
with parameter (from Part b ii)) so if = P(no six in first 5 throws)
9 5
5 3125
Y = the number of days in March until =   = = 0.402 (3 s.f.)
Adeline needs fewer than the mean number  6 7776
5
of attempts to light the fire, then Y ∼ Geo   ,  d) P(Christina throws exactly three times)
 9
5
 4   5
and P (Y = 6 ) =     = 0.00963 (3 s.f.). = P(Christina wins on her third throw,
 9  9
or Novak on his third)
11. a) P ( X1 + X 2 = 3 ) = P ( X1 = 1, X 2 = 2 or X1 = 2, X 2 = 1) 4
 5  1  5  1 6875
5

=   × +  × = = 0.147 (3 s.f.)
= qp × p + p × qp = 2 p 2q  6  6  6  6 46656

 5
 b) P (Y1 + Y2 > 3 ) = 1 − P (Y1 + Y2 = 2,3)   5
  P ( Novak wins the game ) = 6 = using
e) 
5
1+  
= 1 − (0.32 + 2 × 0.32 × 0.7) 11
 6
= 0.784
the formula derived in Question 12 b) above,
12. a) P (Y is even ) = P (Y = 2,4,6,...)
or it can be done directly
= qp + q 3 p + q 5 p + ...
P ( Novak wins the game)
3 5
5 1 5 1 51
 b) P (Y is even ) = qp + q 3 p + q 5 p =   × +   × +   × + ...
6 6 6 6 66
+... qp (1 + q 2 + q 4 + ...) 5 5
  36   
 5    5   5 
2 4
qp q (1 − q ) q  36 
= = = =   1 +   +   + ... =
 36    6   6   1 −  5   11 
2
1− q 2
(1 + q )(1 − q ) 1 + q    
6 36
5 1 5 5
13. a) P ( Novak wins on his first throw ) = × = =
6 6 36 11

P ( Christina wins on her third throw )

  b)     
4
5 1 625
=   × = = 0.0804 (3 s.f.)
 6 6 7776

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The geometric distribution 3
9 The normal distribution
Skills check Exercise 9.2
1. μ = 41; ⇒ σ = 10 1. a) Φ(−0.06) = 1 − Φ(0.06) = 1 – 0.5239 = 0.4761
a − b 16 − 6 b) Φ(2.63) = 0.9957
=
2. p = = 5
c 2
⎛4⎞
c) Φ ⎜ ⎟ = Φ(0.8) = 0.7881
Exercise 9.1 ⎝5⎠
70 − 56 52.5 − 56 d) Φ(2.5) − Φ(1.2) = 0.9938 – 0.8849 = 0.1089
=
1. a) i) z = 2 ii) z = = − 0 .5
7 7 e) Φ(1.43) − Φ(−1.03) = Φ(1.43) – {1 − Φ(1.03)}
66.5 − 56 56 − 56 = 0.9236 – (1 – 0.8485)
=
iii) z = 1 .5 =
iv) z = 0 = 0.7721
7 7
b) i) x = 56 + 1.3 × 7 = 65.1 2. a) P (Z < 1.08) = Φ(1.08) = 0.8599
ii) x = 56 + (−2.4) × 7 = 39.2 b) P (Z > −0.3) = P (Z < 0.3) = Φ(0.3) = 0.6179
iii) x = 56 + (−0.4) × 7 = 53.2
iv) x = 56 + 2 × 7 = 70 c) P (Z < −0.72) = 1 − Φ(0.72) =
 1 − 0.7642
= 0.2358
80 − 87 59 − 87
2. a) i) z = = − 1.4 ii) z = = − 5 .6 ⎛5 13 ⎞
5 5 d) P ⎜ < Z < ⎟ = Φ(2.167) − Φ(1.25)
⎝ 4 6⎠
91.3 − 87 = 0.9849 – 0.8944 = 0.0905
=
iii) z = 0.86
5
 Φ(1.8) − Φ(0.7)
3. a) P (0.7 < Z < 1.8) =
86.7 − 87
iv) z = = − 0.06 = 0.9641 – 0.7580 = 0.2061
5
 Φ(1.1) – {1 − Φ(1.3)}
b) P (−1.3 < Z < 1.1) =
b) i) x = 87 + 2.3 × 5 = 98.5
= 0.8643 – (1− 0.9032)
ii) x = 87 + (−2.1) × 5 = 76.5
= 0.7675
iii) x = 87 + (−0.6) × 5 = 84
iv) x = 87 + 1 × 5 = 92  5 6
c) P − < Z < = Φ(1.2) – {1− Φ(1.667)}
 3 5
15 − 3 −3 − 3
3. a)=
i) z = 1 ii) z = = − 0 .5 = 0.8849 – (1 − 0.9522) = 0.8371
12 12
4. a) P (|Z| < 1.8) =
 P (−1.8 < z < 1.8)
−27 − 3 5 .8 − 3
iii) z = = − 2 .5 =
iv) z = 0.233 = Φ(1.8) – {1 − Φ(1.8)} = 0.9282
12 12
b) i) x = 3 + 0.7 × 12 = 11.4 b) P (|Z| > 0.72) =
 1 − P (−0.72 < z < 0.72)
= 1 – [Φ(0.72) – {1 − Φ(0.72)}]
ii) x = 3 + (−1.3) × 12 = −12.6
= 0.4716
iii) x = 3 + (−0.2) × 12 = 0.6
or, alternatively
iv) x = 3 + 1.8 × 12 = 24.6
P (|Z| > 0.72) = 2 × {1 − P (z < 0.72)} = 0.4716
x −μ 76 − 64
=
4. a) z =
⇒2 ⇒
= σ 6 c) P (Z < −2.8) or Z > 2.1 = P
 (Z < −2.8)
σ σ
+ P (Z > 2.1)
x −μ 43 − μ
=
b) z ⇒=
− 1 .6 ⇒ μ 59
=  = {1 − P (Z < 2.8)}
σ 10
+ {1 − P (Z < 2.1)}
5. Same proportion means it must have the same
standardised score at 68, so  = (1 – 0.9974)
+ (1 − 0.9821)
68 − 48 68 − 53
= 2= ⇒ σY = 7.5  = 0.0205
10 σY
d) P (Z < 1.4 or Z >1.7) = P
 (Z < 1.4)
6. Same proportion means it must have the same
+ {1 – P (Z < 1.7)}
standardised score at 600, so
600 − 549 600 − μY  = 0.9192 + (1 – 0.9554)
= 1=
.5 ⇒ μy­ = 529.5
34 47  = 0.9638

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The normal distribution 1
5. a) 1.282   b) 2.576   c) −1.960 c) P (−3 < X < 5)
(from table of inverse values) ⎛ −3 − 0 5−0 ⎞
 = P ⎜ =− 0.671 < z < =1.118 ⎟
From finding probability in body of main table: ⎝ 20 20 ⎠
d) −0.842   e) 1.555   f) –2.120 = Φ(1.118) – (1 − Φ(0.671))
 
= 0.8681 – (1 – 0.7489) = 0.617
Exercise 9.3
6. a) x = 25 + 1.645 × 4 = 31.58
⎛ 56 − 47 ⎞
1. a) P( X < 56) = P ⎜ z < = 1.8 ⎟ = 0.9641
⎝ 5 ⎠ b) y = 25 + 0.253 × 4 = 26.012

⎛ 51 − 47 ⎞ 7. a) x = 83.2 + 2.326 × 4.5 = 93.667

b) P( X > 51) = P ⎜ z > = 0.8 ⎟
⎝ 5 ⎠ b) y = 83.2 + (−0.524) × 4.5 = 80.842
  = 1 – P (z < 0.8) = 1 – 0.7881 = 0.2119 c) z = 83.2 + 0.772 × 4.5 = 86.674
⎛ 42 − 47 ⎞
c) P( X < 42) =
P⎜ z < = − 1⎟ 8. a) P (|X| < x) = 0.8 ⇒ P (X < x) = 0.9
⎝ 5 ⎠
 ⇒ x = 0 + 1.282 × 15 = 4.97
  = 1 – P (z < 1) = 1 – 0.8413= 0.1587
b) P (|X| < y) = 0.6 ⇒ P (X < y) = 0.8
⎛ 30 − 32 ⎞
2. a) P( X < 30) =
P⎜ z < =− 0.5 ⎟
⎝ 4 ⎠  ⇒ y = 0 + 0.842 × 15 = 3.26
  = 1 – P (z < 0.5) = 1 – 0.6915 = 0.3085 23.4 − μ
9. P (X > 23.4) = 0.05 ⇒ z = = 1.645
5
⎛ 25 − 32 ⎞ ⇒ μ = 23.4 − 5 × 1.645 = 15.175
b) P( X > 25) =
P⎜ z > =
− 1.75 ⎟
⎝ 4 ⎠
48.3 − 42
 = P (z < 1.75) = 0.9599 10. P (X > 48.3) = 0.01 ⇒ z = = 2.326
σ
⎛ 30.3 − 32 ⎞ 6 .3
c) P( X < 30.3) =<
P⎜ z =− 0.425 ⎟ ⇒σ
= = 2.71.
⎝ 4 ⎠ 2.326
  = 1 – P (z < 0.425) = 1 – 0.6646 = 0.3354 −3 − μ
11. P (X > −3) = 0.98 ⇒ z = = −2.054
10 − 4 4
3. a) P( X < 10) = P( z < = 2) = 0.9772 ⇒ μ = −3 + 4 × 2.054 = 5.216.
3
5−4 193 − 186
b) P( X > 5) = P( z > = 0.333) 12. P (X < 193) = 0.92 ⇒ z = = 1.405
3 σ
  = 1 – P (z < 0.333) = 1 – 0.6304 = 0.3696 7
⇒σ = = 4.98
1.405
c) P (|X| < 3) = P (−3 < X < 3)
−31.3 − ( −32 )
= Φ(−0.333) − Φ(−2.333) 13. P (X < −31.3) = 0.9 ⇒ z = = 1.282
= Φ(2.333) − Φ(0.333) σ
0.7
= 0.9902 – 0.6304 = 0.3598 ⇒σ
= = 0.546
1.282
4. a) P (X < 1750) = P (z < 0) = 0.5
14. P (X < 27) = 0.2, P (X > 35) = 0.3
 1780 − 1750    = 1 −
 P z >
b) P (X > 1780) = = 0.18   ⇒ 27 = μ − 0.842σ ; 35 = μ + 0.524σ
 165 
  ⇒ 8 = 1.366σ ⇒ σ = 5.86; μ = 31.9
Φ(0.1̇8̇) = 1 – 0.5721
= 0.4279 15. P (X < 78) = 0.6, P (X > 89) = 0.2
c) P (|X – 1750| < 165) =
 P (|z| < 1)   ⇒ 78 = μ + 0.253σ ; 89 = μ + 0.842σ
= 2 × (Φ(1) –0.5) = 0.6826   ⇒ 11= 0.589σ ⇒ σ = 18.7; μ = 73.3
⎛ 10 − 0 ⎞
5. a) P (X < 10) = P ⎜ z < 2.236 ⎟ = Φ(2.236)
= 16. P (X < 2.1)= 0.6, P (X < 2.7) = 0.7
⎝ 20 ⎠   ⇒ 2.1 = μ + 0.253σ ; 2.7 = μ + 0.524σ
= 0.9873
  ⇒ 0.6 = 0.271σ ⇒ σ = 2.21; μ = 1.54
⎛ 2.5 − 0 ⎞
b) P (X > 2.5) = P ⎜ z > =0.559 ⎟
⎝ 20 ⎠ 17. P (X > 1056) = 0.6; P (X > 1132) = 0.2
= 1− Φ(0.559) = 1 – 0.7119 = 0.2881   ⇒ 1056 = μ − 0.253σ ; 1132 = μ + 0.842σ
  ⇒ 76 = 1.095σ ⇒ σ = 69.4; μ = 1074

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The normal distribution 2
18. P (X < 47.3) = 0.5; P (X > 52) = 0.2 = Φ(−1.25) = 1 − Φ(1.25)
  ⇒ 47.3 = μ ; 52 = μ + 0.842σ = 1 – 0.8944 = 0.1056
  ⇒ 4.7 = 0.842σ ⇒ σ = 5.58 ⎛ 345 − 330 ⎞
b) P(X > 345) = P ⎜ z > =
1.875 ⎟
⎝ 8 ⎠
Exercise 9.4
= 1 − Φ(1.875) = 1 – 0.9697
1. x = 100 + 1.645 × 15 = 124.675
= 0.0303
2. a) P (x > 16.2) = 1 – P(x < 16.2) = 0.2798 So probability between 320 and 345
= 1 – 0.1056 − 0.0303 = 0.8641
⎛ 16.5 − 15.85 ⎞
b) P (x > 16.5) = P ⎜ z > =
1.083 ⎟ c) P(X < x) = 0.95 ⇒ x = 330 + 1.645 × 8 = 343.2
⎝ 0.6 ⎠
= 1 – 0.8606 = 0.1394 320 − μ ′
d) P(X ′ < 320) = 0.05 ⇒ =
− 1.645
8
0.1394
P(x > 16.5 | x > 16.2) = = 0.4982 ⇒ μ ′ = 320 + 8 × 1.645
0.2798
= 333.2
13.2 − μ
3. a) = –1.645 ⇒ μ = 13.4
0.12 320 − 330
e) P(X ′′ < 320) = 0.05 ⇒ = − 1.645
b) P(13.35 < x < 13.5)
σ′
10
σ′
⇒= = 6.08
= P  13.35 − 13.4 = −0.417 < z < 13.5 − 13.4 = 0.833 1.645
 0.12 0.12  7. a) X ~ N(53, 42)
= Φ(0.833) – (1− Φ(0.417)) = 0.7975 – 0.3386
P(X > 56) = 1 − P(X < 56) = 0.2266
= 0.459
⎛ 48 − 53 ⎞
c) (1 – 0.459)3 = 0.158 b) P(X < 48) = P ⎜ z <
=− 1.25 ⎟
d) Production processes are usually broadly ⎝ 4 ⎠
symmetric, and diameters are a continuous = Φ (−1.25) = 1 −Φ(1.25)
measure. Diameters can’t be negative, but 0 is > 100 = 1 – 0.8944 = 0.1056
standard deviations below the mean for this If an egg is > 56 then it must be > 48, so conditional
context, so this is not an issue. The normal is probability is given by
likely to be a good model for this context.
P ( X > 56 ) 0.2266
P(X > 56| X > 48) = = = 0.253
4. a) P(T > 40) = 0.1; P(T < 8)= 0.005 P ( X > 48 ) 0.8944
  ⇒ 40 = μ + 1.282σ ; 8 = μ – 2.576σ
8. a) i) X ~ N(360, 752)
  ⇒ 32 = 3.858σ ⇒ σ = 8.29; μ =29.37 ⎛ 450 − 360 ⎞
P(X > 450) = P ⎜ z > = 1.2 ⎟
b) Travel times are likely to have a positive skew – ⎝ 75 ⎠
caused by roadworks, train delays etc. If this     = 1 − Φ(1.2) = 1 – 0.8849 = 0.1151
is not severe then the normal is likely to be
a reasonable model (it is continuous and 0 ⎛ 210 − 360 ⎞
ii) P(X < 210) = P ⎜ z < =
− 2⎟
is > 3.5 standard deviations below mean, so ⎝ 75 ⎠
truncation of negative values is not an issue). = 1 − Φ(2) = 1 – 0.9772 = 0.0228
⎛ 40 − 43 ⎞ So probability between 210 and 450
5. a) P(T > 40) = P ⎜ z > = − 0.75 ⎟
⎝ 4 ⎠ = 1 – 0.1151 − 0.0228 = 0.8621
= 1 − Φ(−0.75) = Φ(0.75) = 0.7734 t − 360
iii) P(X > t) = 0.05 ⇒ = 1.645
75
b) P(T > t) = 0.1, ⇒ t = 43 + 1.282 × 4
= 48.1 hours ⇒ t = 360 + 75 × 1.645
= 483 seconds
c) Y ~ N(μ, 42)
 43 = μ − 1.645 × 4
P(Y > 43) = 0.95, ⇒
 b) Need half of the 86.21% who are interviewed – and
⇒ μ = 49.6 there were 2.28% automatically accepted so median
will be at M where P(X < M) = 0.4539 – a z-score of
6. a) X ~ N(330, 82) –0.116, so M = 360 – 0.116 × 75 = 351 seconds
⎛ 320 − 330 ⎞
P (X < 320) = P ⎜ z < =
− 1.25 ⎟
⎝ 8 ⎠

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The normal distribution 3
9. a) X ~ N(μ, 2.62) ⎛ 12.8 − 11.62 ⎞
b) P(Y > 12.8) = P ⎜ z >
=1.616 ⎟
P(X < 660) = 0.22 ⇒ 660 = μ
  – 0.772 × 2.6 ⎝ 0.73 ⎠
⇒ μ = 662 = 1 − Φ(1.616) = 1 − 0.9469
= 0.0531
⎛ 650 − 662 ⎞
b) P(X < 650) = P ⎜ z < =
− 4.61⎟ =
⎝ 2.6 ⎠ c) P(X < 10.8, Y > 12.8) =
 0.0196 × 0.0531
0.000002
= 0.0010
d) There are 10 disciplines in the decathlon
Note: While the Normal distribution is infinite
requiring different skills and physical attributes.
in both directions, the z value which cuts off
Performance across all the disciplines is unlikely
0.0005 at either tail is 3.291 and this is
to be independent for an individual athlete.
considerably further to the tail.
3. V ~ N(335, 52)
10. a) X ~ N(17.9, 0.22)
⎛ 330 − 335 ⎞
⎛ 17.5 − 17.9 ⎞ a) P(V < 330) = P ⎜ z <
= − 1⎟
P(X < 17.5) = P ⎜ z < =
− 2⎟ ⎝ 5 ⎠
⎝ 0.2 ⎠
= Φ(−1) = 1 − Φ(1)
= Φ(−2) = 1 − Φ(2) = 1 – 0.9772
= 1 – 0.8413 = 0.1587
= 0.0228
⎛ 345 − 335 ⎞
⎛ 18.4 − 17.9 ⎞  P⎜ z <
b) P(V < 345) = =
2⎟
b) P(X > 18.4) = P ⎜ z >
= 2.5 ⎟ ⎝ 5 ⎠
⎝ 0.2 ⎠
= Φ(2) = 0.9772
= 1 − Φ(2.5) = 1 – 0.9938
= 0.0062 s o expect around 29 in a conditional probability is given by
P(V < 330| V < 345)
thousand to be rejected.
c) by symmetry this would be the midrange of P (V < 330 ) 0.1587
 = = = 0.1624
the acceptable values i.e. 17.95 mm. P (V < 345 ) 0.9772

d) If a screw is >18.4 then it must be >17.5, so 345 − 335

c) P(V ′ < 345) = 0.995 ⇒ = 2.576
conditional probability is given by σ′
P (X > 18.4| X > 17.5) 10
⇒
= σ′ = 3.88
P ( X > 18.4 ) 2.576
0.0062
 = = = 0.0063 4. a) any two out of the following
P ( X > 17.5 ) 0.9772
• It is symmetric
Summary exercise 9 • It is infinite in both directions
1. Y ~ N(100, 15 ) 2
• It has a single peak at the centre
⎛ 130 − 100 ⎞
a) P(Y > 130) = P ⎜ z > =2⎟ • It is continuous
⎝ 15 ⎠
= 1 − Φ(2) = 1 – 0.9772 = 0.0228  • 95% of values lie within approximately 2 sd
of the mean
b) P(73 ≤ Y ≤ 91)
• 99% lie within approximately 3 sd of the
⎛ 73 − 100 91 − 100 ⎞ mean.
 = P ⎜ =− 1.8 ≤ z ≤ =− 0.6 ⎟
⎝ 15 15 ⎠
b) P(X < 230) = 0.02; P(X > 340) = 0.05
= Φ(1.8) − Φ(0.6) = 0.9641 – 0.7257
 
= 0.2384   ⇒ 230 = μ – 2.054σ ; 340 = μ + 1.645σ

c) P(Y ≤ k) = 0.2 ⇒ k = 100 − 0.842 × 15 = 87.4 ⇒ 110 = 3.699σ ; ⇒ σ = 29.7; μ = 291.1

2. Let X be the RV for the time in the 100 metres and ⎛ 250 − 291.1 ⎞
c) P(X < 250) = P ⎜ z <
=− 1.384 ⎟
Y be the distance in the shot put. ⎝ 29.7 ⎠
X ~ N(11.46, 0.322); Y ~ N(11.62, 0.732) = Φ(−1.384) = 1 − Φ(1.384)
= 1 – 0.9168 = 0.0832
⎛ 10.8 − 11.46 ⎞
a) P(X < 10.8) = P ⎜ z <
=− 2.063 ⎟ Average profit on 100 batteries
⎝ 0.32 ⎠
= 1 − Φ(2.063) = 1 − 0.9804 = 100 × $750 – 8.32 × $1250 = £64600
= 0.0196

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The normal distribution 4
5. X ~ N(253, 112) 9. for iii note 2007 is not a leap year, so the year is
⎛ 240 − 253 ⎞ 365 days = 8670 hours.
a) P(X < 240) =
P⎜ z < =
− 1.182 ⎟
⎝ 11 ⎠ X ~ N(8000, 4002)
= Φ(−1.182) = 1 − Φ(1.182) a) i) P(X < 7700)
= 1 – 0.8814 = 0.1186 ⎛ 7700 − 8000 ⎞
 =
P⎜ z < − 0.75 ⎟ = Φ(−0.75)
=
b) P(245 < X < 275) ⎝ 400 ⎠
⎛ 245 − 253 275 − 253 ⎞   = 1 − Φ(0.75) = 1 – 0.7734 = 0.2266
= P ⎜ =− 0.727 < z < =2 ⎟
⎝ 11 11 ⎠ ii) P(7500 < X < 8300)
= Φ(2) − Φ(−0.727) = Φ(2) – {1 − Φ(0.727)}

⎛ 7500 − 8000 8300 − 8000 ⎞
= 0.7435 =P ⎜ =− 1.25 < z < =0.75 ⎟
a − 253 ⎝ 400 400 ⎠
c) P(a ≤ X) = 0.13 ⇒ = 1.127 ⇒ a = 265.4
11 = Φ(0.75) − Φ(−1.25) = Φ(0.75) –

6. a) T ~ N(8, 1.52)
{1− Φ(1.25)} = 0.6678
1 t −8
P(T > t ) =⇒ = 0.967 ⇒ t = 9.45 min ⎛ 8760 − 8000 ⎞
6 1.5 iii) P(X > 8760) =
P⎜ z > =
1.9 ⎟
Time is 9.45 minutes (9 minutes 27 seconds) ⎝ 400 ⎠
b) Whether this is reasonable may depend a bit = 1 − Φ(1.9) = 1 – 0.9713
on what the subject is: it probably would not be = 0.0287
reasonable in mathematics where fully correct ⎛ 7000 − 8000 ⎞
b) P(X < 7000) = P ⎜ z < =
− 2.5 ⎟
answers will take very little time to mark, where ⎝ 400 ⎠
interpretative subjects like English or History = Φ(−2.5) = 1 − Φ(2.5)
might be modelled well by a normal (again, it is = 1− 0.9938 = 0.0062
continuous and the negative truncation is not a
⎛ 7500 − 8000 ⎞
problem) P(X < 7500) = P⎜ z < =− 1.25 ⎟
⎝ 400 ⎠
7. E ~ N(62, 92); F ~ N(70, 62)
= Φ(−1.25) = 1 − Φ(1.25) = 0.1056
⎛ 80 − 62 ⎞
 P⎜ z >
a) P(E > 80) = =2 ⎟ = 1 − Φ(2) Probability of 0.0062 it has to be supplied free
⎝ 9 ⎠
(cost £ 215) and a probability of 0.0994 that it is
= 1 – 0.9772 = 0.0228
supplied at a nett cost of £140.
b) p must also have a standardised score of 2 to
E(P) = 50 – 0.0062 × 215 – 0.0994 × 140 = £34.75

have the same probability – p = 82 (=70 + 2 × 6)
c) P(E > 75; F > 75) = P(E > 75) × P(F > 75) 10. Y ∼ N(100,152 )
⎛ 75 − 62 ⎞ ⎛ 75 − 70 ⎞  120 − 100 
=
P⎜ z > =
1.444 ⎟ × P ⎜ z > =
0.833 ⎟ a) i) P(Y > 120) = P  Z > = 1.333
⎝ 9 ⎠ ⎝ 6 ⎠  15 
= (1 – 0.9257) (1 − 0.7975) = 0.015 = 1 − Φ(1.333) = 0.0913

d) Both are likely to be related to ability in the ii) P(75 < Y < 94) =
subject so independence not likely to hold.  75 − 100 94 − 100 
P = −1 < Z < = −0.4 
 15 15 
8. a) P(X ≤ 69) = 0.0228, P(X ≥ 95) = 0.1056 = Φ(1) − Φ(0.4) = 0.186
 ⇒ 69 = μ − 2σ ; 95 = μ + 1.25σ b) The top 0.5% is cut off when z = 2.576, so an
 ⇒ 26 = 3.25σ ⇒ i σ = 8; ii μ = 85 IQ of 100 + 2.576 × 15 = 138.64 (139) is needed
to be in the top 0.5% of the population.
b) P(71 ≤ X ≤ 81)

 =P ⎛⎜ 71 − 85 =− 1.75 ≤ z ≤ 81 − 85 =− 0.5 ⎞⎟ 11. Let X be the random variable for the volume of milk
⎝ 8 8 ⎠ in a bottle. Then X ∼ N( 505, 82 ).
= Φ(1.75) − Φ(0.5) = 0.9599 – 0.6915
   500 − 505 
i) P( X < 500) = P  Z < = −0.625
= 0.2684  8 
= 1 − Φ(0.625) = 0.266

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The normal distribution 5
  525 − 505  Φ−1 =
12. 3.4 σ , so 3.4 = 3.2 + 2.17σ
= 2.17
3.2 + 2.17
(0.985)
ii) P( X > 525) = P  Z > = 2.5
 8  0.2 0.2
⇒σ = = 0.092 so⇒ σ standard
the = = 0.092
deviation is
= 1 − Φ(2.5) = 0.0068 2.17 2.17
0.266 9.2 cm.
P( X < 500| X < 525) = = 0.268
0.9932
13. Φ−1 (0.1) = −1.645 and Φ−1 (0.95) = 1.96 so
iii) 0.1% overflow means that 525 is at 3.09
standard deviations above the mean so µ − 1.645σ = 310
525 − 505 µ + 1.96σ = 340
σ′= = 6.47 . The new machine has
3.09 giving 3.605σ = 30 ⇒ σ = 8.32 and
a standard deviation of 6.47 ml.
µ − 1.645 × 8.32... = 310 ⇒ µ = 323.7

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The normal distribution 6
10 The normal approximation to the
binomial distribution
Skills check Exercise 10.2
1. mean = 8 × 0.3 = 2.4; 1. a) P(X < 41.5) b) P(X > 31.5)
variance = 8 × 0.3 × 0.7 = 1.68 c) P(X > 8.5) d) P(42.5 < X < 84.5)
2. X ~ N(4, 32) 2. 0.6
⎛ 10 − 4 ⎞
a) P(X < 10) = P ⎜ z < 2 ⎟ = Φ(2) = 0.9772
= 0.5
⎝ 3 ⎠
0.4
⎛ 5−4 ⎞
b) P(X > 5) = P ⎜ z > = 0.333 ⎟
⎝ 3 ⎠ 0.3

= 1 − Φ(0.333) = 1− 0.6304 = 0.3696 0.2

c) P(|X| < 3)
0.1
⎛ −3 − 4 3−4 ⎞
 = P ⎜ =− 2.333 < z < =− 0.333 ⎟
⎝ 3 3 ⎠ 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
= Φ(−0.333) − Φ(−2.333)
  0.6
= Φ(2.333) − Φ(0.333) = 0.9902 – 0.6304
0.5
= 0.3598
0.4
Exercise 10.1
0.3
1.
0.2
X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

probability 0.015625 0.09375 0.234375 0.3125 0.234375 0.09375 0.015625 0.1

0.6 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0.5

0.4 Exercise 10.3

0.3 1. a) Yes: N(35, 10.5)
b) No: n(1 − p) = 3
0.2
c) Yes: N(100, 80)
0.1
d) No: np = 1.
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2. a) X ~ B(50, 0.7) ⇒ N(35, 10.5) ⇒ P (X < 42)

2. ⎛ 41.5 − 35 ⎞
 = P ⎜ z < =
2.006 ⎟
⎝ 10.5 ⎠
X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
 = Φ(2.006) = 0.9775
probability 0.531441 0.354294 0.098415 0.01458 0.001215 5.4E−05 0.000001

0.6 b) X ~ B(40, 0.3) ⇒ N(12, 8.4) ⇒ P(X ≥ 9)

⎛ 8.5 − 12 ⎞
0.5  = P ⎜ z < =− 1.208 ⎟
⎝ 8.4 ⎠
0.4
  = 1 − Φ(1.208) = 0.1136
0.3
c) X ~ B(34, 0.37) ⇒ N(12.58, 7.9254) ⇒ P(X ≥ 13)
0.2
 = P ⎛⎜ z < 12.5 − 12.58 = ⎞
− 0.0284 ⎟
0.1 ⎝ 7.9254 ⎠
0
  = 1 − Φ(0.284) = 0.4887
0 1 2 3 4 5 6

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The normal approximation to the binomial distribution 1
 d) X ~ B(80, 0.4) ⇒ N(32, 19.2) ⇒ P(25 < X ≤ 37) 7. a) X ~ B(84, 0.35) ⇒ approx N(29.4, 19.11)
⎛ 25.5 − 32 37.5 − 32 ⎞ 24.5 − 29.4
= P ⎜ =− 1.483 < z < =1.255 ⎟ P(X > 24.5) = P  z > = −1.121
⎝ 19.2 19.2 ⎠  19.11 

= Φ(1.255) − Φ(−1.483) = 0.8953 – 0.0690

 = Φ(1.121) = 0.8689
= 0.8263 b) Patients in poor health are more likely to have
appointments in the surgery so it is an assumption
e) X ~ B(124, 0.43) ⇒ N(53.32, 30.3924) which is very unlikely to be true, and unlikely to
⇒ P(43 ≤ X ≤55) be even a reasonable approximation to reality.
⎛ 42.5 − 53.32 55.5 − 53.32 ⎞
= P ⎜ =− 1.963 < z < =0.395 ⎟ Summary exercise 10
⎝ 30.3924 30.3924 ⎠
1. a) X ~ B(20, 0.2) ⇒ mean = 20 × 0.2 = 4;
= Φ(0.395) − Φ(−1.963) = 0.6536 – 0.0248

variance = 20 × 0.2 × 0.8 = 3.2
= 0.6288
b) P(X > 2) = 1 − P(X ≤ 2) = 1 − 0.2061 = 0.7939
3. a) i) 
P(X = 13, 14, …, 19) = 0.1050 + 0.1189 +
0.1223 + 0.1147 + 0.0983 + 0.0772 + c) Y ~ B(154, 0.8) ~ approx N(123.2, 24.64)
0.0558 = 0.6923 ⎛ 135.5 − 123.2 ⎞
approx P(Y > 135.5) = P ⎜ z > =
2.478 ⎟
X ∼ B ( 50,0.3) ∼ N(15,10.5) ⎝ 24.64 ⎠
 12.5 − 15 19.5 − 15  = 1 − Φ(2.478) = 0.0066
ii) P (12 < X < 20 ) ≈ P  <Z < 
 10.5 10.5 
X ~ B(10, 0.5)
2. a)  P(X > 7)
= P ( −0.772 < Z < 1.389 )
⎛ 10 ⎞ ⎛ 10 ⎞
= 0.9175 − (1 − 0.7800) = 0.6975 = ⎜ ⎟ × 0.58 × 0.52 + ⎜ ⎟ × 0.5 × 0.5 + 0.5
9 1 10

⎝ 8⎠ ⎝ ⎠9
b) i) 0.6975 – 0.6923 = 0.0052 = 0.0547
0.0052
ii) × 100% = 0.75% b) Y ~ B(100, 0.5) ~ approx N(50, 25)
0.6923
4. The Normal can be used as an approximation ⎛ 70.5 − 50 ⎞
P(Y > 70.5) = P ⎜ z > =
4.1⎟
when both np and n(1 − p) are > 5, (provided ⎝ 5 ⎠
the observations are a random sample from the = 1 − Φ(4.1) = 0.000
population). The parameters to be used are the c) W ~ B(1000, 0.5) ~ approx N(500, 250)
mean and variance of the Binomial; μ = np;
⎛ 700.5 − 500 ⎞
σ 2 = npq. P(W > 700.5) = P ⎜ z > =
12.68 ⎟
⎝ 250 ⎠
5. a) X ~ B(5, 0.06) = 1− Φ(12.68) = 0.000
⎛5⎞
P(X = 1) = ⎜ ⎟ × 0.06 × 0.944 = 0.234 Note: this illuminates a key concept in statistics – the
⎝1 ⎠ laws of large numbers – all these questions are asking
b) Y ~ B(2000, 0.06); ⇒ N(120, 112.8) about the same proportion – but in an increasing
⎛ 99.5 − 120 ⎞ number of trials the likelihood decreases dramatically.
 P⎜ z <
 P(X < 100) = =− 1.930 ⎟
⎝ 112.8 ⎠
⎛ 1⎞
= 1 − Φ(1.930) = 0.0268 3. a) X ∼ B ⎜ 12, ⎟ P(X >3)
⎝ 6⎠
6. a) X ~ B(50, 0.25) P(X > 3) = 1 − P(X ≤ 3) = 1 − 0.8748 = 0.1252
b) X ~ approx N(12.5, 9.375) ⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 100 ⎞
b) Y ∼ B ⎜ 120, ⎟ ~ approx N ⎜ 20, ⎟
⎛ 19.5 − 12.5 ⎞ ⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 6 ⎠
P(X > 19.5) = P ⎜ z > =
2.286 ⎟
⎝ ⎠ 30.5 − 20
9.375
P(Y > 30.5) = P  z > = 2.572
= 1− Φ(2.286) = 0.0111  16.67 

⎛ 1⎞ = 1 − Φ(2.572) = 0.005
⎟ ~ approx N(16.67, 11.11)
c) Y ∼ B ⎜ 50,
3⎠ ⎝ ⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 1000 ⎞
c) W ∼ B ⎜ 1200, ⎟ ~ approx N ⎜ 200, ⎟
⎛ 19.5 − 16.67 ⎞ ⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 6 ⎠
P(Y < 19.5) = P ⎜ z > =
0.850 ⎟
⎝ ⎠ 300.5 − 200
11.11
P( W > 300.5) = P  z > = 7.785
= Φ(0.850) = 0.8023  116.7 
= 1 − Φ(7.785) = 0.00

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The normal approximation to the binomial distribution 2
4. a) i) X ~ B(10, 0.3) 7. i) Using X ∼ B (12,0.2 ), P(X < 3) = 0.812 +
P(X ≤ 4) = 0
 .8497 (12 × 0.811 × 0.2) + ( 12C 2 × 0.810 × 0.2 2 ) = 0.558
ii) P(X ≥ 4) = 0.3504 ii) n (150) and p (0.65) have both np and nq > 5,
so it is appropriate to approximate the
b) Y ~ B(250, 0.53) ~ approx N(132.5, 62.275)
B(150, 0.65) distribution by a normal
⎛ 119.5 − 132.5 ⎞ with mean 150 × 0.65 = 97.5 and variance
P(Y > 119.5) = P ⎜ z > =
− 1.647 ⎟
⎝ 62.275 ⎠ 150 × 0.65 × 0.35 = 34.125.
 110.5 − 97.5 
  = Φ(1.647) = 0.9502 P( X > 110) ≈ P  Z > = 2.225
 34.125 
c) W ~ B(50, 0.08) = 1 − Φ (2.225) = 0.013
⎛ 50 ⎞ ⎛ 50 ⎞
P(X ≤ 3) = 0
 .92 + ⎜ ⎟ × 0.9249 × 0.08 + ⎜ ⎟
50

⎝ ⎠1 ⎝ 2⎠ 8. n (300) and p (0.8) have both np and nq > 5, so

⎛ 50 ⎞
× 0.92 × 0.08 + ⎜ ⎟ × 0.92 × 0.083
48 2 47 it is appropriate to approximate the B(300, 0.8)
⎝ 3⎠ distribution by a normal with mean 300 × 0.8 = 240
= 0.4253
and variance 300 × 0.8 × 0.2 = 48.
Note: in part c a normal approximation is not  250.5 − 240 
P( X > 250) ≈ P  Z > = 1.516
appropriate because 50 × 0.08 = 4 (<5)  48 
= 1 − Φ (1.516) = 0.065
7 8
⎛ 1⎞ ⎛8⎞ 1 2
 1 − ⎜ ⎟ ⎛⎜ ⎞⎟ ⎛⎜ ⎞⎟ − ⎛⎜ ⎞⎟
5. a) X ∼ B ⎜ 8, ⎟ P(X ≥ 2) =
2
⎝ 3⎠ 1 3
⎝ ⎠⎝ ⎠⎝ ⎠ 3 3
⎝ ⎠ 9. n (350) and p (0.5) have both np and nq > 5,
= 0.8049 so it is appropriate to approximate the
B(350, 0.45) distribution by a normal
b) Y ~ B(200, 0.338) ~ approx N(67.67, 44.79)
with mean 350 × 0.45 = 157.5 and variance
⎛ 80.5 − 67.67 ⎞ 350 × 0.45 × 0.55 = 86.625.
P(Y > 80.5) = P ⎜ z > =
1.917 ⎟
⎝ 44.79 ⎠  149.5 − 157.5 
P( X < 150) ≈ P  Z < = −0.860
 86.625 
= 1 − Φ(1.917) = 0.0277
= 1 − Φ (0.86) = 0.189
6 a) X ~ B(25, 0.1)

i) P(X = 0) = 0.925 = 0.0718 10. i) Let X be the mass of a randomly selected egg,
then X ∼ N(55, 5.2 2 ).
⎪⎧ ⎛ 25 ⎞ ⎪⎫
ii) P(X ≥ 2) = 1− ⎨0.9 25 + ⎜ ⎟ × 0.9 24 × 0.1⎬ P( jumbo) = P( X > 65)
⎩⎪ ⎝ 1⎠ ⎭⎪
65 − 55
= 0.7288 = P  Z > = 1.925
 5.2 

{ ⎛ 25 ⎞
iii) P(X ≥ 4) = 1 − 0.925 + ⎜ ⎟ × 0.924 × 0.1
⎝ 1⎠
= 1 − Φ (1.923) = 0.0272
If Y is the number of jumbo eggs in a box of
 ii) 
⎛ 25 ⎞ ⎛ 25 ⎞
+ ⎜ ⎟ × 0.923 × 0.12 + ⎜ ⎟ × 0.922 12 eggs then Y ∼ B(12,0.0272), and the
⎝ ⎠2 ⎝ 3⎠ probability of no jumbo eggs is 0.972812 = 0.718.
}
× 0.13 = 0.2364
  iii) If W is the number of jumbo eggs in an order
b) Y ~ B(250, 0.1) ~ approx N(25, 22.5) of 300 eggs then W ∼ B(300, 0.0272).
39.5 − 25  
n (300) and p (0.0272) have both np and
P(Y > 39.5) = P  z > = 3.057 nq > 5, so it is appropriate to approximate
 22.5 
the B(300, 0.0272) distribution by a normal
= 1 − Φ(3.057) = 0.001(3 d.p.) with mean 350 × 0.0272 = 8.91 and variance
Note: in part b the table of critical values for 350 × 0.0272 × 0.9728 = 7.938.
p = 0.999 gives z = 3.090 (>3.057) so know this  5.5 − 8.91 
P(W < 6) ≈ P  Z < = −1.210
probability is 0.001 correct to 3 decimal places.  7.938 
 = 1 − Φ (1.210) = 0.113

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The normal approximation to the binomial distribution 3
Paper A
1. The lengths, x cm, of 25 rulers were measured, = 1 – {0.2244 + 0.2984 + 0.2351
and are summarised by ∑ ( x − 30 ) =
0.6 and + 0.0834} = 0.1587 = 0.159
∑ ( x − 30) =
2
5.32
b) Now using Y ~ B(5, 0.159) for the number of
Find the mean and standard deviation of the clinics with fewer than 7 patients.
rulers. P(Y ≥ 1) = 1 – P(Y = 0)
= 1 – (1 – 0.159)5 = 1 – 0.421 = 0.579
0 .6
x = + 30 =
30.024 12
25 5. a)
134
σ2 = ∑ ( x − 30) 2

− (0.024 )2 =
5.32
− (0.024)2 b)
30 15
=
25 25 134 67
= 0.212224 ⇒ σ = 0.461 24
c)
47
2. Distance
Int Freq 6. a) i) can be 2 boys + 2 others or 3 boys + 1 other;
run Frequency
width density
(x km) ⎛3 ⎞ ⎛9 ⎞ ⎛3⎞ ⎛9 ⎞
number of ways = ⎜ ⎟ × ⎜ ⎟ + ⎜ ⎟ × ⎜ ⎟
15 ≤ x < 25 19 10 1.9 ⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎝ 3 ⎠ ⎝1 ⎠
25 ≤ x < 30 17 5 3.4 = 3 × 36 + 1 × 9 = 117
30 ≤ x < 35 24 5 4.8 ii) all in the team is just one way – none in
35 ≤ x < 40 12 5 2.4 the team means choose 4 out of 8 others −
⎛8 ⎞
y ⎜ ⎟ = 70 ways so total is 71 possible teams
5
⎝4⎠
need to treat the 3 cases with 2 boys, 2 girls
iii) 
4 and 2 adults separately:
Frequency density

3 ⎛3 ⎞ ⎛ 5⎞ ⎛ 4 ⎞
2B, 1G, 1A ⇒ ⎜ ⎟ × ⎜ ⎟ × ⎜ ⎟ = 3 × 5 × 4
2 ⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎝1 ⎠ ⎝1 ⎠
= 60
1
⎛3⎞ ⎛5 ⎞ ⎛ 4 ⎞
1B, 2G, 1A ⇒ ⎜ ⎟ × ⎜ ⎟ × ⎜ ⎟ = 3 × 10 × 4
0 x ⎝1 ⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎝1 ⎠
10 20 30 40
Distance run (km) = 120
⎛3⎞ ⎛5⎞ ⎛ 4 ⎞
3. a) Φ (z) = 0.8 ⇒ z = 0.842, so 25 = 24.2 + 0.842σ
1B, 1G, 2A ⇒ ⎜ ⎟ × ⎜ ⎟ × ⎜ ⎟ = 3 × 5 × 6
⎝1 ⎠ ⎝1 ⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠
25 − 24.2 = 90
 ⇒ σ = = 0.950
0.842 So 270 ways altogether.
24 − 24.2
b) z = = − 0.211; b) 6 letters but 4 are indistinguishable so
0.95
6!
Φ (−0.211) = 1 – Φ (0.211) = 1 – 0.5836 = 0.4164 = 6 × 5 = 30 ways to do this.
4!
4. a) Using X ~ B(10, 0.78) for the number of
7. a) P(Odd) = 0.6, so using B(8, 0.6)
patients who turn up to the clinic.
P(X ≥ 6) = P(X = 6, 7, 8)
P(X < 7) = 1 – P(X = 7, 8, 9, 10)
= ⎪⎧⎨⎛ 8 ⎞ 0.66 × 0.4 2 + ⎛ 8 ⎞ 0.67 × 0.4 + 0.68 ⎫⎪⎬
⎪⎧⎛ 10 ⎞ ⎛ 10 ⎞ ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟
=
1 − ⎨⎜ ⎟ 0.787 0.223 + ⎜ ⎟ 0.788 0.222 ⎩⎪⎝ 6 ⎠ ⎝7 ⎠ ⎭⎪
⎩⎪⎝ 7 ⎠ ⎝ 8⎠
= {0.2090 + 0.0896 + 0.0168} = 0.3154
⎛ 10 ⎞ ⎫
10 ⎪ = 0.315
+ ⎜ ⎟ 0.78 0.22 + 0.78 ⎬
9

⎝ 9⎠ ⎪⎭

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Paper A 1
 b) ⎛ 1 + 8 + 18 + 48 + 50 ⎞
X 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 12 15 16 20 25 ⎜ ⎟
E(= 1 ⎜ +72 + 128 + 81 + ⎟ 3025 1
X2) = = 84
P (/36) 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 36 ⎜ 200 + 288 + 450 ⎟ 36 36
⎜ ⎟
⎝ +256 + 800 + 625 ⎠
⎛ 1 + 4 + 6 + 12 + 10 ⎞ 2
⎜ ⎟ 1 ⎛ 225 ⎞
1 ⎜ +12 + 16 + 9 ⎟= 225 Var ( X ) = 84 − ⎜ ⎟ = 44.97
c) E( X ) = or 6.25 36 ⎝ 36 ⎠
⎜
36 +20 + 24 + 30 ⎟ 36
⎜ ⎟
⎝ + 16 + 40 + 25 ⎠ d) P(X > E(X) = 6.25) = P(X ≥ 8) =
13
36

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Paper A 2
Paper B
⎛ 40 − 46.3 50 − 46.3 ⎞ 5. FIRST SECOND
1. P(40 < x < 50) = P ⎜ <z< ⎟ 0.2
⎝ 12.3 12.3 ⎠ W
0.5
= P(−1.796 < z < 1.055)
0.4 0.16
W S
= Φ(1.055) − Φ(−1.796)
= 0.8543 – (1 – 0.9638) = 0.8181 0.1 0.04
N
0.4
2. a) median 78, LQ = 70, UQ = 84 W
0.2
0.5
b) y
0.2
S S 0.08
0.4

Before 0.3
N 0.12

0.2 0.04
After
W
0.2

0 N 0.2 S 0.04
x
60 70 80 90 100 110

0.6
(3 × 5) + (5 × 15) + 30 f + ( 4 × 55) + (3 × 95)
3. a) 35.8 = N 0.12
15 + f W = win S = reach semi-final N = not reach semi-final
⇒ f = 10
So total number of children is 25. a) P(N,W) = 0.04
b) P(win at least one) = sum of the underlined
b) ∑m 2
f = ( 3 × 25) + (5 × 225) + (10 × 900) probabilities = 0.64
+ (4 × 3025) + (3 × 9025) = 49375
c) P(Win second tournament) = 0.2 + 0.2 + 0.04
49375 = 0.44
Var( X ) = − (35.8)2 =693.36
25 0 .2 5
P(Won f  irst|win second) = = = 0.455
standard deviation = 693.36 = 26.3 0.44 11

6. a) total probability =
 k + 4k + 9k + 16k + 25k
4. a) using B(10, 0.15)
1
= 55k ⇒ k =
P(Y ≤ 1) = P(X = 0,1) = 0
 .8510 + 10 55
× 0.859 × 0.15 14
b) P(X < 3) = k + 4k + 9k =
= 0.1969 + 0.3474 55
= 0.544 c) E(X) = k + 8k + 27k + 64k + 125k = 225k
225 45
b) 400 × 0.15 = 60; 400 × 0.15 × 0.85 = 51, so = = = 4.09
55 11
approximating B(400, 0.15) by N(60, 51), and
25 5
wanting to separate 40 or less from 41 and above d) P(X > E(X)) = P(X = 5) = = , so using
55 11
the continuity correction is X < 40.5
Y ~ B ⎛⎜ 4,
5⎞
⎟ for the number of randomly chosen
40.5 − 60 ⎝ 11 ⎠
P(X < 40.5) = P  Z < = −2.731
 51  observations which are greater than E(X ):
= Φ(−2.731) = 1 – 0.9968 = 0.0032 ⎛4⎞ 5
3

P(Y = 1) = ⎜ ⎟ ⎜⎛ ⎞⎟ ⎜⎛ ⎞⎟ = 0.295
6
⎝ 1 ⎠ ⎝ 11 ⎠ ⎝ 11 ⎠

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Paper B 1
7. a) i) Since students at same school stay together If schools A, B have two students on f  irst
iii) 
it is a matter of which schools are paired team then schools C, D will have two
together − a school can be paired with any students on second team, so choosing 2 out
one of 3, then the other pair is determined. So of 4 schools to have second student on the
3 ways. f  irst team will give all possibilities twice,
OR: choose two out of 4 schools for the f  irst so 3 ways to do that, then for each school
choosing 1 out of 3 or 2 out of 3 can be done
⎛4⎞
team ⎜ ⎟ = 6 ways – but each pair of in 3 ways for each of the 4 schools (i.e. 34 =
⎝2⎠ 81 ways). So number of ways = 3 × 81 = 243
possible teams occurs twice in this list ways.
(where the pair is chosen and where they are
b) DIFFERENCE has 10 letters including 2 Fs,
the two not chosen) so there are 3 possible
3 Es and 5 others, so the number of
pairs of teams.
10 !
permutations is = 302 400
Now choose 2 out of the other 8 to go with
ii)  3! 2!
⎛8⎞
the 4 friends – so ⎜ ⎟ = 28 ways
⎝2⎠

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute Paper B 2