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CDF Analysis 06

1. The document defines variables and formulas for calculating cost estimates at different stages of construction projects. 2. Key variables include total construction cost, inflation, risk contingency, and optimism bias, which are used to calculate the total estimate. 3. Formulas also define relationships between appraisal, design, and construction values to calculate percentages using power curves and linear regression.

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Alexandre Rodrigues
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7 views

CDF Analysis 06

1. The document defines variables and formulas for calculating cost estimates at different stages of construction projects. 2. Key variables include total construction cost, inflation, risk contingency, and optimism bias, which are used to calculate the total estimate. 3. Formulas also define relationships between appraisal, design, and construction values to calculate percentages using power curves and linear regression.

Uploaded by

Alexandre Rodrigues
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Expression Variable Name

Cost Curve Percentage Value

CC001
Input Programme Stage Gateway
CC003 Consultancy Apraisal
CC004 Consultancy Design

Power Curve Parameter coeficient for SOC - OBC


CC009

CC005 Total Construction Estimate Value

CC010 Power Curve Parameter exponential for SOC - OBC


CC012 Power Curve Parameter coeficient for OBC_FBC

CC013 Power Curve Parameter exponential for OBC_FBC

Input Construction Cost Estimate Value

CC008 Inflation
CC007 Construction Risk Contingency

CC006 Optimism Bias (OB)


Input percentual Optimism Bias
Input percentual Construction Risk Contingency
Input percentual Inflation
CC011 Appraisal Percentage for SOC-OBC
Input Design value for SOC-OBC

Input Contruction value for SOC-OBC


CC014 Design Percentage for OBC-FBC
Input Design value for OBC-FBC

Input Contruction value for OBC-FBC


Variable Alias Location WorkSheet Location Range

CcPv Lot X PSC Target Cost Estimate E54

PrgStgG Lot X PSC Target Cost Estimate E50


CsAp Sampling Test Bed J2
CsDsg Sampling Test Bed J3

PcpCoefSOCOCB SOC-OBC Calcs E3

Tcev Lot X PSC Target Cost Estimate E46

PcpExpSOCOCB SOC-OBC Calcs C3

PcpCoefOBCFBC OBC-FBC Calcs E3

PcpExpOBCFBC OBC-FBC Calcs C3

ccev Lot X PSC Target Cost Estimate E38

inf Lot X PSC Target Cost Estimate E40


crc Lot X PSC Target Cost Estimate E42

ob Lot X PSC Target Cost Estimate E44

Perob Lot X PSC Target Cost Estimate F44


Percer Lot X PSC Target Cost Estimate F42
Perinf Lot X PSC Target Cost Estimate F40
AprPerSOCOBC SOC-OBC Appraisal Curve Data Column P
DesValSOCOBC SOC-OBC Appraisal Curve Data Column N

ConstValSOCOCB SOC-OBC Appraisal Curve Data Column M

DesPerOBCFBC OBC-FBC Design Curve Data Column P


DesValOBCFBC OBC-FBC Design Curve Data Column N

ConstValOBCFBC OBC-FBC Design Curve Data Column M


1. LINEAR REGRESSION

CDF00 1

Appraisal Percentage for SOC-OBC


𝐴𝑝𝑟𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑆𝑂𝐶_𝑂𝐶𝐵 =("𝐷𝑒𝑠Val" 𝑆𝑂𝐶_𝑂𝐶𝐵)/("ConstVal" 𝑆𝑂𝐶_𝑂𝐶𝐵 " " )

Apr𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑆𝑂𝐶_𝑂𝐶𝐵- Design Percentage for SOC-OBC


𝐷𝑒𝑠Val𝑆𝑂𝐶_𝑂𝐶𝐵- Design value for SOC-OBC
ConstVal𝑆𝑂𝐶_𝑂𝐶𝐵- Contruction value for SOC-OBC

2. TOTAL CONSTRUCTION ESTIMATE VALUE

CDF00 4

Inflation
"inf"=𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑣 ∗𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑓

ccev - Construction Cost Estimate Value


inf - Inflation
Perinf - percentual Inflation
3. COST CURVE PERCENTAGE VALUE

CDF00 8

Consultancy Apraisal

"CsAp"=𝑃𝑐𝑝𝐶𝑜𝑒𝑓 〖𝑆𝑂𝐶〗 _𝑂𝐶𝐵∗ 〖 (𝑇𝑐𝑒𝑣/10^6 ) 〗 ^(𝑃𝑐𝑝𝐸𝑥𝑝 〖𝑆𝑂𝐶〗 _𝑂𝐶𝐵 )

CsAp - Consultancy Apraisal


𝑃𝑐𝑝𝐶𝑜𝑒𝑓 〖𝑆𝑂𝐶〗 _𝑂𝐶𝐵 - Power Curve Parameter coeficient for SOC - OBC
Tcev - Total Construction Estimate Value
𝑃𝑐𝑝𝐸𝑥𝑝 〖𝑆𝑂𝐶〗 _𝑂𝐶𝐵- Power Curve Parameter exponential for SOC - OBC
CDF00 2

Design Percentage for OBC - FBC

𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑃𝑒𝑟 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶 =("𝐷𝑒𝑠Val" 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶)/("ConstVal" 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶 " " )

𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑃𝑒𝑟 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶- Design Percentage for OBC -


FBC
𝐷𝑒𝑠Val 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶- Design value for OBC - FBC
ConstVal 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶 - Contruction value for OBC -
FBC

CDF00 5

Construction Risk Contingency

"crc"=(𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑣+inf⁡)∗𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑟𝑐)

ccev - Construction Cost Estimate Value


inf - Inflation
crc - Construction Risk Contingency
Percrc- percentual Construction Risk Contingency
CDF00 9
Consultancy Design

"Cs" 𝐷𝑠𝑔=𝑃𝑐𝑝𝐶𝑜𝑒𝑓 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶∗ 〖 (𝑇𝑐𝑒𝑣/10^6 ) 〗 ^(𝑃𝑐𝑝𝐸𝑥𝑝 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶 )

CsDsg - Consultancy Desgign


𝑃𝑐𝑝𝐶𝑜𝑒𝑓 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶- Power Curve Parameter coeficient for
OBC_FBC
Tcev - Total Construction Estimate Value
𝑃𝑐𝑝𝐸𝑥𝑝 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶- Power Curve Parameter exponential for
OBC_FBC
CDF00 3.1

Power Curve Parameter coeficient for SOC - OBC

𝐵𝐶 " " ) 𝑃𝑐𝑝𝐶𝑜𝑒𝑓𝑆𝑂𝐶_𝑂𝐶𝐵=𝑓(𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑡(ln⁡(𝐴𝑝𝑟𝑃𝑒𝑟 〖𝑆𝑂𝐶〗 _𝑂𝐶𝐵 ),ln⁡〖 (𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑉𝑎𝑙 〖𝑆𝑂𝐶〗 _𝑂𝐶𝐵 ))) 〗

𝑃𝑐𝑝𝐶𝑜𝑒𝑓 〖𝑆𝑂𝐶〗 _𝑂𝐶𝐵- Power Curve Parameter coeficient for SOC - OBC
Apr𝑃𝑒𝑟 〖𝑆𝑂𝐶〗 _𝑂𝐶𝐵 - Appraisal Percentage for SOC-OBC
𝐷𝑒𝑠Val 〖𝑆𝑂𝐶〗 _𝑂𝐶𝐵- Design value for SOC-OBC
ln - Natutal Logatitmic transformation
linest - linear regression model using the least square method

CDF00 6

Optimism Bias (OB)

"ob"=(𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑣+𝑖𝑛𝑓+𝑐𝑟𝑐)∗ 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑜𝑏

ob - Optimism Bias (OB)


ccev - Construction Cost Estimate Value
inf - Inflation
crc - Construction Risk Contingency
Perob - percentual Optimism Bias
CDF00 10

Cost Curve Percentage Value


𝐹𝐵𝐶 ) 𝐶𝑐𝑃𝑣={█("CsAp if PrgStgG" = "SOC_OBC " @"CsDsg if PrgStgG" =𝑂𝐵𝐶_𝐹𝐵𝐶@"CsAp"

oeficient for 𝐶𝑐𝑃𝑣 - Cost Curve Percentage Value


CsAp - Consultancy Apraisal
CsDsg - Consultancy Design
PrgStgG - Programme Stage Gateway
ponential for OBC_FBC - OBC-FBC - Detailed Design (Development of FBC &
Target Cost for Construction)
SOC_OBC - SOC-OBC - Appraisal (Development of OBC)
SOC_FBC - SOC-FBC - Appraisal - Detailed Design (single stage)
CDF00 3.2

C - OBC Power Curve Parameter exponential for SOC - OBC

𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑉𝑎𝑙 〖𝑆𝑂𝐶〗 _𝑂𝐶𝐵 ))) 〗 𝑃𝑐𝑝𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑆𝑂𝐶_𝑂𝐶𝐵=𝑓(𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑡(ln⁡(𝐴𝑝𝑟𝑃𝑒𝑟 〖𝑆𝑂𝐶〗 _𝑂𝐶𝐵 ),ln⁡〖 (𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑉𝑎𝑙 〖𝑆𝑂𝐶〗 _𝑂𝐶𝐵 ))) 〗

icient for SOC - OBC 𝑃𝑐𝑝𝐸𝑥𝑝 〖𝑆𝑂𝐶〗 _𝑂𝐶𝐵 - Power Curve Parameter Exponential for SOC -
-OBC OBC
Apr𝑃𝑒𝑟 〖𝑆𝑂𝐶〗 _𝑂𝐶𝐵 - Appraisal Percentage for SOC-OBC
𝐷𝑒𝑠Val 〖𝑆𝑂𝐶〗 _𝑂𝐶𝐵- Design value for SOC-OBC
re method ln - Natutal Logatitmic transformation
linest - linear regression model using the least square method

CDF00 7

Total Construction Estimate Value

"Tcev"=𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑣+𝑖𝑛𝑓+𝑐𝑟𝑐+𝑜𝑏

Tcev - Total Construction Estimate Value


ccev - Construction Cost Estimate Value
inf - Inflation
crc - Construction Risk Contingency
ob - Optimism Bias (OB)
gG" =𝑂𝐵𝐶_𝐹𝐵𝐶@"CsAp" + "Cs" 𝐷𝑠𝑔 𝑖𝑓 "PrgStgG" = "SOC_FBC " @)┤

of FBC &

)
le stage)
CDF00 3.3

SOC - OBC Power Curve Parameter coeficient for OBC - FBC

𝑒𝑠𝑉𝑎𝑙 〖𝑆𝑂𝐶〗 _𝑂𝐶𝐵 ))) 〗 𝑃𝑐𝑝𝐶𝑜𝑒𝑓 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶=𝑓(𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑡(ln⁡(𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑃𝑒𝑟 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶 ),ln⁡〖 (𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑉𝑎𝑙 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶 ))

onential for SOC - 𝑃𝑐𝑝𝐶𝑜𝑒𝑓 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶- Power Curve Parameter coeficient for OBC - FBC
𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑃𝑒𝑟 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶 - Design Percentage for "OBC − FBC"
OBC
𝐷𝑒𝑠Val 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶- Design value for "OBC − FBC"
ln - Natutal Logatitmic transformation
linest - linear regression model using the least square method
re method
CDF00 3.4

C - FBC Power Curve Parameter exponential for OBC - FBC

〖 (𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑉𝑎𝑙 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶 ))) 〗 𝑃𝑐𝑝𝐸𝑥𝑝 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶=𝑓(𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑡(ln⁡(𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑃𝑒𝑟 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶 ),ln⁡〖 (𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑉𝑎𝑙 〖𝑂

icient for OBC - FBC 𝑃𝑐𝑝𝐸𝑥𝑝 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶 - Power Curve Parameter exponectial for
− FBC" 𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑃𝑒𝑟 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶- DesignPercentage for OBC - FBC
𝐷𝑒𝑠Val 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶- Design value for OBC - FBC
ln - Natutal Logatitmic transformation
re method linest - linear regression model using the least square method
ponential for OBC - FBC

𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶 ),ln⁡〖 (𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑉𝑎𝑙 〖𝑂𝐵𝐶〗 _𝐹𝐵𝐶 ))) 〗

arameter exponectial for OBC - FBC


age for OBC - FBC
OBC - FBC
the least square method

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