Rainfall Distribution Analysis and Prediction Using Scilab

Harikrishnan Nair
Advanced Climate Modelling, Environmental Data Analysis and Rainfall Prediction
February 10, 2024

 Abstract:
This case study, titled "Rainfall Distribution Analysis and Prediction Using Scilab," delves
into the realm of environmental data analysis and forecasting. The primary objective is to develop an
advanced model capable of predicting rainfall patterns, contributing to improved climate
understanding and informed decision-making.

 Purpose of the Case Study:

The central goal of this case study is to address the existing challenges in rainfall
predictions and contribute to the advancement of climate modeling techniques. By focusing on
environmental data analysis and forecasting, the study aims to enhance the precision and reliability
of rainfall predictions, providing valuable insights for various applications.

 Overview of the Case Study:

The case study centres around the development of a sophisticated model capable of
predicting rainfall patterns with increased accuracy. Leveraging a multi-dimensional dataset
encompassing years, months, days, and distinct locations, the study offers a comprehensive
exploration of environmental data.

 Basic Design of the Study:

The study employs a multifaceted approach, integrating elements of control systems,
statistical analysis, and data visualization. The design encompasses the generation of synthetic
rainfall data, the implementation of advanced prediction algorithms, and the creation of an
interactive graphical user interface (GUI) for exploring and visualizing rainfall distributions.

 Methods Used:
Key methodologies include statistical analysis of historical rainfall data, the generation of
synthetic data for model training, and the implementation of advanced algorithms for predicting
future rainfall. The study incorporates a blend of mathematical modelling, fundamental principles,
and computational techniques to achieve accurate and reliable results.

 Approach:
The approach involves a systematic execution of the project through a detailed
algorithmic flowchart. Each step is meticulously designed to ensure clarity and reproducibility. The
software environment primarily consists of Scilab, along with specific toolboxes, while hardware
specifications are outlined for transparency and replicability. Hence, this case study establishes a
groundwork for enhancing climate modelling, rainfall prediction and environmental data analytics.

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 Problem Statement:
Rainfall prediction plays a pivotal role in various sectors, from agriculture to disaster
management. However, existing models often fall short in providing accurate and detailed forecasts.

 Background Context:
The existing methods of rainfall prediction face significant challenges in providing
accurate and reliable forecasts. Traditional models often struggle to capture the complex dynamics of
environmental data, resulting in limited precision and usability. This inadequacy poses substantial
implications for various sectors relying on precise rainfall predictions, including agriculture, urban
planning, and disaster management.

 Issues to Address:
The primary issues to be addressed in this case study are mentioned as follows:
1. Inaccurate Rainfall Predictions: Current models exhibit limitations in accurately
predicting rainfall patterns, leading to unreliable forecasts.
2. Limited Spatial and Temporal Resolution: The spatial and temporal resolution of
existing models may not be sufficient to capture intricate variations in rainfall across
different locations and time intervals.
3. Need for Advanced Climate Modelling: There is a pressing need for more advanced
climate modelling techniques that can integrate multi-dimensional datasets and
sophisticated algorithms to enhance prediction accuracy.

 Desired Solutions:
The solution involves the development of an advanced climate model that utilizes a
combination of statistical analysis, fundamental principles, and computational methods. This model
aims to overcome the limitations of traditional approaches by providing:
1. Improved Accuracy: A more accurate and reliable rainfall prediction system leveraging
advanced algorithms and modelling techniques.
2. Enhanced Spatial and Temporal Resolution: The model will address the limitations of
spatial and temporal resolution, ensuring a finer understanding of rainfall patterns across
diverse locations and timeframes.

 Ways to Improve:
To improve the existing scenario, the study focuses on the followings:
1. Incorporating Machine Learning: Utilizing machine learning algorithms for data-
driven predictions, allowing the model to adapt and improve over time.
2. Interactive Visualization: Implementing an interactive graphical user interface (GUI)
for users to explore and visualize rainfall distributions effectively.
3. Synthetic Data Generation: Enhancing predictions by generating synthetic rainfall
data for model training and evaluation.
4. Ensemble Modelling: Implementing ensemble modelling techniques to combine
predictions from multiple models, improving overall accuracy and robustness.

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  Methodology:
The approach involves a systematic execution which includes as follows:
1. Data Generation: Creating synthetic rainfall data representative of real-world scenarios.
2. Algorithm Development: Implementing advanced algorithms for rainfall prediction based
on historical data.
3. Graphical User Interface: Developing an interactive GUI for users to explore and visualize
predicted rainfall distributions.
By addressing these aspects, the case study aims to contribute to the advancement of climate
modelling and provide a robust solution to the challenges in rainfall prediction.

 Basic concepts related to the topic:

The case study delves into the intricate domain of climate modeling and rainfall prediction,
requiring a solid grasp of fundamental concepts. Here, we explore key aspects that form the
foundation of the project.

1. Climate Modelling:
 Definition: Climate modelling is a computational approach to simulate climate systems,
aiming to understand and predict their behaviour over time.
 Purpose: The primary goal is to gain deep insights into the complex interactions among
various atmospheric components, facilitating accurate long-term climate predictions.
 Mathematical Aspects: This field employs advanced mathematical models that
integrate equations from fluid dynamics, thermodynamics, and radiative transfer.

2. Rainfall Prediction:
 Definition: Rainfall prediction focuses on forecasting the amount and distribution of
rainfall in a specific region over a defined period.
 Importance: The significance lies in its applications, ranging from water resource
management and agricultural planning to disaster preparedness.
 Mathematical Aspects: The discipline integrates statistical methods, machine learning
algorithms, and numerical weather prediction models. These methods analyze historical
data to make informed predictions about future rainfall patterns.

3. Synthetic Data Generation:

 Definition: Synthetic data generation involves creating artificial datasets that emulate
real-world conditions, contributing to the augmentation of existing data for model
training and evaluation.
 Purpose: The primary objective is to enhance the diversity and volume of available
data. This augmentation, in turn, improves the robustness and generalization capabilities
of machine learning models.
 Mathematical Aspects: The process incorporates algorithms designed to generate
realistic synthetic data, replicating statistical characteristics observed in actual datasets.

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 4. Ensemble Modelling:
 Definition: Ensemble modelling combines predictions from multiple models to produce
a more accurate and reliable forecast.
 Importance: This approach mitigates the limitations of individual models and leverages
the strengths of diverse forecasting methods.
 Mathematical Aspects: Ensemble modelling utilizes various statistical techniques, such
as averaging, weighted averaging, or stacking, to merge predictions effectively.
A profound understanding of these foundational concepts is crucial, as they underpin the
methodologies employed in the development and execution of the advanced rainfall prediction
system discussed in this case study.

 Flowchart and Algorithm:

The presented flowchart illustrates the systematic process involved in the case study titled
"Advanced Climate Modelling and Rainfall Prediction Using Scilab." This comprehensive flowchart
encapsulates the key steps undertaken to analyse and visualize environmental data, specifically
focusing on rainfall patterns. The case study employs Scilab, a powerful scientific computing
software, for data manipulation and graphical representation.
The flowchart commences with the extraction of rainfall data for a specified location, setting
the foundation for subsequent analysis. It then navigates through crucial steps such as finding the
location index, flattening and sorting the rainfall data, and extracting relevant statistics. The
visualization phase encompasses plotting a pie chart and histogram to provide a graphical
representation of the rainfall distribution.
To enhance clarity, the flowchart utilizes distinctive shapes, sizes, and colors for different
stages, aiding in the visualization of the logical progression of the case study. Each component in the
flowchart is intricately designed to facilitate a streamlined execution of the case study, offering a
comprehensive overview of the processes involved.

 Algorithm for implementing Rainfall Distribution Analysis and Prediction:

STEP 1: Start
STEP 2: Rainfall Data, Location Name
STEP 3: Process:
 Get the location name input.
 Find the corresponding location index.
 If the location index is not empty, proceed
 Extract rainfall data for the specified location.
 Flatten and sort the rainfall data.
 Plot a 2-D using histc and unique functions.
 Plot a Histogram using histplot with specified parameters.
 Display the generated charts.
 If the location index is empty, display an error message.
STEP 4: End

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 Flowchart for the Rainfall Distribution Analysis and Prediction:

START

DISPLAY ALL THE DETAILS ABOUT

THE RAINFALL PREDICTION

INPUT:
FIND LOCATION
RAINFALL DATA INDEX
LOCATION NAME

FLATTEN AND LOCATIO DISPLAY ERROR

YES
SORT RAINFALL N INDEX MESSAGE
DATA EMPTY?

NO
EXTRACT
PLOT THE PLOT HISTOGRAM
RAINFALL DATA
CHARTS USING USING HISTPLOT
FOR THE
HISTIC UNIQUE IN THE 2D
SPECIFIED
GRAPHS
LOCATION

DISPLAY ALL THE

CARTESIAN
CHARTS
NECESSARY FOR
THE DATA

STOP

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 Software/Hardware used:
1. Operating System: Windows 11 Pro
2. Scilab Version: 2024.0.0
3. Toolbox: N/A (No specific toolbox used for this case study.)
4. Hardware: N/A (The case study doesn’t involve specific hardware requirements.)
5. Programming Language: Scilab (Version 2024.0.0)
6. Integrated Development Environment (IDE): Scilab Console
7. Code Execution: Executed within the Scilab environment

 Procedure of Execution:
The step-by-step procedure for executing the code is explained with detailed comments. This
includes assumptions made during code execution and comprehensive insights into the processes
involved.

// Updated Main Program.sci

// Load additional functions
exec('generate_rainfall_data.sci', -1);
exec('analyze_historical_data.sci', -1);
exec('predict_rainfall_advanced.sci', -1);
exec('visualize_historical_data.sci', -1);
exec('create_rainfall_prediction_gui.sci', -1);
exec('statistical_analysis.sci', -1);
exec('rainfall_distribution_gui.sci', -1);

// Constants and parameters

num_years = 5;
num_months = 12;
num_days = 30;
num_locations = 5;

STEP 1: Generate synthetic rainfall data

rainfall_data = generate_rainfall_data(num_years, num_months, num_days, num_locations);

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// Example usage
location_to_predict = 3;
year_to_predict = 2024;
month_to_predict = 2;
day_to_predict = 6;

STEP 2: Analyze and visualize historical data

[average_rainfall, monthly_variation] = analyze_historical_data(location_to_predict, rainfall_data);

// Display results using string function

disp(['Average Rainfall for Location ' string(location_to_predict) ': ' string(average_rainfall) ' mm']);
disp(['Monthly Variation: ' string(monthly_variation)]);

STEP 3: Predict rainfall using the advanced algorithm

predicted_rainfall_advanced = predict_rainfall_advanced(location_to_predict, year_to_predict,
month_to_predict, day_to_predict, rainfall_data);
disp(['Advanced Predicted rainfall for Location ' string(location_to_predict) ' on '
string(day_to_predict) '-' string(month_to_predict) '-' string(year_to_predict) ': '
string(predicted_rainfall_advanced) ' mm']);

STEP 4: Visualize historical data

visualize_historical_data(location_to_predict, rainfall_data);

STEP 5: Perform statistical analysis

[overall_mean, overall_std] = perform_statistical_analysis(rainfall_data);
disp(['Overall Mean Rainfall: ' string(overall_mean) ' mm']);
disp(['Overall Standard Deviation: ' string(overall_std)]);

STEP 6: Generate synthetic rainfall data

rainfall_data = rand(num_years, num_months, num_days, num_locations);

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STEP 7: Create GUI for rainfall distribution exploration
create_rainfall_distribution_gui(rainfall_data);
(The above function could be extended in a more advanced way as required in the future.)

 Program:
 Main Program:
// Updated Main Program.sci
// Load additional functions
exec('generate_rainfall_data.sci', -1);
exec('analyze_historical_data.sci', -1);
exec('predict_rainfall_advanced.sci', -1);
exec('visualize_historical_data.sci', -1);
exec('create_rainfall_prediction_gui.sci', -1);
exec('statistical_analysis.sci', -1);
exec('rainfall_distribution_gui.sci', -1);

// Constants and parameters

num_years = 5;
num_months = 12;
num_days = 30;
num_locations = 5;

// Generate synthetic rainfall data

rainfall_data = generate_rainfall_data(num_years, num_months, num_days, num_locations);

// Example usage
location_to_predict = 3;
year_to_predict = 2024;
month_to_predict = 2;
day_to_predict = 6;

// Analyze and visualize historical data

[average_rainfall, monthly_variation] = analyze_historical_data(location_to_predict rainfall_data;

// Display results using string function

disp(['Average Rainfall for Location ' string(location_to_predict) ': ' string(average_rainfall) mm'];
isp(['Monthly Variation: ' string(monthly_variation)]);

// Predict rainfall using the advanced algorithm

predicted_rainfall_advanced = predict_rainfall_advanced(location_to_predict, year_to_predict
month_to_predict, day_to_predict, rainfall_data);
disp(['Advanced Predicted rainfall for Location ' string(location_to_predict) ' on '
string(day_to_predict) '-' string(month_to_predict) '-' string(year_to_predict) ': '
string(predicted_rainfall_advanced) ' mm']);

// Visualize historical data

visualize_historical_data(location_to_predict, rainfall_data);

// Perform statistical analysis

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 [overall_mean, overall_std] = perform_statistical_analysis(rainfall_data);
disp(['Overall Mean Rainfall: ' string(overall_mean) ' mm']);
disp(['Overall Standard Deviation: ' string(overall_std)]);

// Generate synthetic rainfall data

rainfall_data = rand(num_years, num_months, num_days, num_locations);

// Create GUI for rainfall distribution exploration

create_rainfall_distribution_gui(rainfall_data);
//(The above function could be extended in a more advanced way as required in future)

 Dependencies (Library Files):

1. generate_rainfall_data.sci

// generate_rainfall_data.sci

function rainfall_data=generate_rainfall_data(num_years, num_months,num_days,

num_locations)
rainfall_data = rand(num_years, num_months, num_days, num_locations) * 100;
endfunction

2. analyze_historical_data.sci

// analyze_historical_data.sci

function [average_rainfall, monthly_variation]=analyze_historical_data(location, data)

historical_data = data(:, :, :, location);

// Calculate average rainfall

average_rainfall = mean(historical_data(:));

// Calculate monthly variation using stdev

num_months = size(historical_data, 2);
monthly_variation = zeros(1, num_months);

for month = 1:num_months

monthly_variation(month) = stdev(historical_data(:, month, :));
end
endfunction

3. predict_rainfall_advance.sci

// predict_rainfall_advanced.sci

function predicted_rainfall=predict_rainfall_advanced(location, year, month, day, data)

[average_rainfall, monthly_variation] = analyze_historical_data(location, data);

// Implement a more complex prediction algorithm

predicted_rainfall = average_rainfall + 0.2 * monthly_variation(month) + rand() * 10;

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 endfunction

4. visualize_historical_data.sci

// visualize_historical_data.sci

function visualize_historical_data(location, data)

historical_data = data(:, :, :, location);

clf;
for month = 1:size(historical_data, 2)
subplot(size(historical_data, 2), 1, month);
plot(squeeze(historical_data(:, month, :)), 'LineWidth', 2);
title(['Month ' string(month)]);
xlabel('Days');
ylabel('Rainfall (mm)');
end
title(['Historical Rainfall Data - Location ' string(location)]);
endfunction

5. create_rainfall_prediction_gui.sci

// create_rainfall_prediction_gui.sci

function create_rainfall_prediction_gui(data)
// Create a figure for the GUI
fig = figure('Position', [100, 100, 800, 600], 'Name', 'Rainfall Prediction System', 'NumberTitle',
'off', 'MenuBar', 'none');

// Create user input elements

location_label = uicontrol('Style', 'text', 'String', 'Location:', 'Position', [50, 500, 100, 30]);
location_input = uicontrol('Style', 'edit', 'Position', [150, 500, 100, 30]);

date_label = uicontrol('Style', 'text', 'String', 'Date (YYYY-MM-DD):', 'Position', [300, 500, 150,
30]);
date_input = uicontrol('Style', 'edit', 'Position', [450, 500, 150, 30]);

predict_button = uicontrol('Style', 'pushbutton', 'String', 'Predict Rainfall', 'Position', [650, 500,

100, 30], 'Callback', @predict_callback);

// Callback function for the predict button

function predict_callback(source, event)
location_to_predict = str2num(get(location_input, 'String'));
date_str = get(date_input, 'String');
[year, month, day] = sscanf(date_str, '%d-%d-%d');

// Predict and display rainfall

predicted_rainfall_advanced = predict_rainfall_advanced(location_to_predict, year, month,
day, data);

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 disp(['Advanced Predicted rainfall for Location ' num2str(location_to_predict) ' on ' num2str(day)
'-' num2str(month) '-' num2str(year) ': ' num2str(predicted_rainfall_advanced) ' mm']);
end
endfunction

6. statistical_analysis.sci

// statistical_analysis.sci

function [overall_mean, overall_std]=perform_statistical_analysis(data)

overall_mean = mean(data(:));
overall_std = stdev(data(:));
endfunction

7. rainfall_distribution_gui.sci

// rainfall_distribution_gui.sci

function create_rainfall_distribution_gui(data)
fig = figure('Position', [100, 100, 800, 600], 'Name', 'Rainfall Distribution Explorer', 'MenuBar',
'none');

location_label = uicontrol('Style', 'text', 'String', 'Location:', 'Position', [50, 500, 100, 30]);
location_input = uicontrol('Style', 'edit', 'Position', [150, 500, 100, 30]);

plot_button = uicontrol('Style', 'pushbutton', 'String', 'Plot Rainfall Distribution', 'Position', [300,

500, 150, 30]);
set(plot_button, 'Callback', 'plot_callback(data, location_input)');

show_graphics_button = uicontrol('Style', 'pushbutton', 'String', 'Show Graphics', 'Position', [500,

500, 150, 30]);
set(show_graphics_button, 'Callback', 'show_graphics(data, location_input)');

endfunction

function show_graphics(D, D, data, location_input)

location_name = get(location_input, 'string');
location_to_plot = find_location_index(data, location_name);

if ~isempty(location_to_plot)
rainfall_distribution = data(:, :, :, location_to_plot);

// Flatten the data and sort it

sorted_data = sort(rainfall_distribution(:));

// Plot Pie Chart

figure;
pie(histc(sorted_data, unique(sorted_data)));

// Plot Histogram

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 figure;
histplot(sorted_data, nbins=20, color='b', border='k');
title(['Rainfall Distribution - Location ' location_name]);
xlabel('Rainfall (mm)');
ylabel('Frequency');
else
disp(['Invalid input for location: ' location_name '. Please enter a valid location name.']);
end
endfunction

function plot_callback(data, location_input)

// Your existing plot_callback code
// ...
endfunction

 References:

1. “Recent Advances in Rainfall Modelling, Estimation and Forecasting”, by Efi Foufoula-

Georgiou and Witold Krajewski, https://efi.eng.uci.edu/papers/efg_079.pdf
2. “Comparative Analysis of Rainfall Prediction Models Using Machine Learning in Islands
with Complex Orography: Tenerife Island”, by Ricardo Aguasca-Colomo, Dagoberto
Castellanos-Nieves and Máximo Méndez, https://doi.org/10.3390/app9224931, 16 November
2019
3. “Rainfall Prediction Using Machine Learning Models: Literature Survey”, January 2022,
DOI:10.1007/978-3-030-92245-0_4, In book: Artificial Intelligence for Data Science in
Theory and Practice (pp.75-108), by Eslam A. Hussein, Mehrdad Ghaziasgar, Christopher
Thron, Mattia Vaccari, Yahlieel Jafta,
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359750167_Rainfall_Prediction_Using_Machine_L
earning_Models_Literature_Survey\
4. “Rainfall Prediction System Using Machine Learning Fusion for Smart Cities”, Atta-ur
Rahman, Sagheer Abbas, Mohammed Gollapalli, Rashad Ahmed, Shabib Aftab, Munir
Ahmad, Muhammad Adnan Khan and Amir Mosavi, doi: 10.3390/s22093504,
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9099780/
5. An Improved Method for Rainfall Forecast Based, on GNSS-PWV, Longjiang Li, Kefei
Zhang, Suqin Wu, Haobo Li, Xiaoming Wang, Andong Hu, Wang Li, Erjiang Fu, Minghao
Zhang and Zhen Shen,
https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/51958/noaa_51958_DS1.pdf

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