50 Challenging Problems in Probability

Keyword/s:
Red socks and black socks, drawer
Answer: Keyword/s:
(a) 4 (b) 21 Chuck-a-Luck, three dice are rolled
Answer:
About 8% per play

[Nov 2016, Nov 2021, Nov 2023]

Keyword/s:
Elmer’s promising tennis career
His father offers Keyword/s:
Answer: Kind Friend, help cure Mr. Brown of playing
Champion-Father-Champion, 0.512 roulette
Answer:
Mr. Brown gains +2.79 dollars per 36 trials; he
is finally making money at roulette.
Possibly, Kind Friend will be cured first.

Keyword/s:
Keyword/s:
Bridge, perfect hand
Three-man jury, third member who flips a coin
Answer:
Answer:
4 x (13!x39!)/52!
The juries have the same chance of a correct de-
cision

Keyword/s:
Until one gets a 6
Answer:
Formula: m = 1/p, m = 6 since p = 1/6 to get a 6
Keyword/s:
Game of craps, America’s fastest and most pop-
ular gambling games
Answer:
0.49293, expected loss = 0.01414 or 1.41%
[May 2017]
Keyword/s:
Tosses a penny, Table ruled in 1-inch square,
penny lands on the table
Answer:
(1/4)^2 = (1/16), if the lines are 1/16 inch
wide; (3/16)^2 = 9/256 or less than 1/28

REFRESHER: APR 2024

Keyword/s: [May 2017]
Color matches your choice, you get $10, other- Keyword/s:
wise nothing Single seats in the same 15-seat row of a theater,
Answer: marriageable couples
(a) Expected value = $5, you may not be willing Answer:
to pay anything near $5 to play it, you offer 75 7 7/15
cents
(b) You should be willing to pay at least as much
to play the second game as the first.
Most people feel that they would rather play the
first game because the conditions of the second
seem vaguer

Keyword/s:
Two strangers, choose one of the positive whole
numbers
Answer:
1, 3, 7; most of informants choose 1

Keyword/s:
Tennis tournament, second-best player
Answer:
Keyword/s:
2^(n-1)/(2^(n) – 1)
Two strangers, private recognition signal, meet
Thursday, 12 noon in New York City
Answer:
Empire State Building

Keyword/s:
King Arthur, jousting tournament, Balin and
Balan
Answer:
(a) ¼, (b) 1/[2^(n–1)]

Keyword/s:
Applied for parole, release two of the three
Answer: Keyword/s:
Probability of A = 1/3/(1/3 + 1/6) = 2/3 Exactly 50 are heads
Answer:
[100!/(50!x50!)](1/2)^100 = 0.07959 = 0.08

Keyword/s:
Coupons in cereal boxes
Answer:
1/(2n) = 1/(2x5) = 11.42 Keyword/s:
Pepys wrote Newton to ask, 6 dice, 12 dice, 18
dice
Answer:
6-dice wager
P(1 or more sixes with 6 dice) = 0.665
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 Keyword/s:
Mother – uptown, girl friend - downtown
Answer:
To go uptown, Marvin must arrive in the 1-mi-
nute interval between a downtown and an up-
town train
Keyword/s:
Three-cornered pistol duel
Answer:
A fires his first shot into the ground and then
tries to hit B with his next shot. C is out of lock. [May 2018, 2/3]
Keyword/s:
Probability – length exceeds the radius
Answer:
(a) Assume that the distance of the chord from
the center of the circle is evenly (uniformly) dis-
tributed from 0 to r,
√3
≈ 0.866
Keyword/s: 2
Two urns contain red and black balls, Urb B has (b) Assume that the midpoint of the chord is
101 reds and 100 blacks. evenly distributed over the interior of the circle.
Answer: ¾ = 0.75
If red is drawn first, replace it before drawing (c) Assume that the chord is determined by two
again. If black is drawn, do not replace it. points chosen so that their positions are inde-
P(deciding correctly) = 23/36 ≈ 0.64 pendently evenly distributed over the circum-
Drawing both balls without replacement gives ference = 2/3
about 5/8, drawing both with replacement gives
about 21.5/36

Keyword/s:
Duels – rarely fatal, duels lead to violence
Keyword/s: Answer:
Ballot box, after the first tally – same number of 23/144 ≈ 1/6
tallies
Answer:
P(tie) = 2b/(a+b) = 2/(r+1) where r = a/b

[May 2019]
Keyword/s:
Match pennies N times
Answer: Keyword/s:
(𝑁) King’s minter – 100 to a box, 1 false coin
𝑃(𝑛𝑜 𝑡𝑖𝑒) = 𝑛𝑁
2 100’s replaced by n
Answer:
(a) P(0 false coins) = (1 – 1/100)100 ≈ 0.366
(b) P(0 false coins) = (1 – 1/n)n

Keyword/s:
King’s minter – n to a box, m false coins

REFRESHER: APR 2024

 n coins – r false ones n = 253
Answer:
𝑛 𝑚 𝑟 𝑚 𝑛−𝑟
𝑃(𝑟 𝑓𝑎𝑙𝑠𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑠) = ( ) ( ) (1 − )
𝑟 𝑛 𝑛
𝑛
Note that: ( ) = 𝑛𝐶𝑟
𝑟
Keyword/s:
r persons compare birthdays
Answer:
n = r(r – 1)/2
Keyword/s:
(a) Tiny mold colonies on gelatin plates, exactly
3 colonies
(b) Exactly m colonies
Answer:
(𝑎)𝑃(𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑛 𝑠𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑠) [Nov 2016]
𝑛 𝑚 𝑟 𝑚 𝑛−𝑟
= ( ) ( ) (1 − ) Keyword/s:
𝑟 𝑛 𝑛 Holiday – birthday
Let n tend to infinity,
𝑒 −𝑚 𝑚𝑟 Answer:
𝑃(𝑟) = , 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑚 = 3, 𝑟 = 3, 𝑃(𝑟) = 0.224 364
𝑟!
(b) For a large average m, exactly m colonies
equal
𝑒 −𝑚 𝑚𝑚 1 0.4
𝑃(𝑚) = = ≈
𝑚! √2𝜋𝑚 √𝑚

Keyword/s: [Nov 2016]

20 cakes on a round of his route Keyword/s:
Answer: Drunken man, escape the cliff
P(even) = (1 + e–2m)/2, for m = 20, P ≈ 0.5 Answer:
*If he sold on the average one special birthday ½ falling over the cliff, ½ escaping
cake per trip, P ≈ 0.568

Keyword/s:
Player M is enough better than Player N,
Answer:
𝑞 𝑚
1−( ) 2 1
𝑝
Keyword/s: 𝑃= , 𝑝 = , 𝑞 = , 𝑚 = 1, 𝑛 = 2, 𝑃
𝑞 𝑚+𝑛 3 3
Two or more of them have the same birthday 1 − (𝑝)
Answer: = 𝟒/𝟕
P(at least 1 matching pair)
𝑁(𝑁 − 1)(𝑁 − 2) … (𝑁 − 𝑟 + 1)
=1−
𝑁𝑟
For r = 23, P ≈ 0.5073

Keyword/s:
Embarrassed to wire his wife for more money,
Invest in roulette
Keyword/s:
Answer:
Birthday matches yours
P(bet $20 all at once) = 18/38 ≈ 0.474
Answer:
P(dollar at a time) ≈ 0.11
REFRESHER: APR 2024
Keyword/s:
Keyword/s:
1/3; landing on edge
Answer: Average size; smallest, middle-sized, largest
Answer:
≈0.354r ≈ 35% as thick as the diameter of the
coin 1/9; 5/18; 11/18

Keyword/s:
Number of plays is to be even; Get more than
half the points
[Nov 2016] Answer:
Keyword/s: For p = 0.45, number of plays = 10
Thin 9-inch glass rods, average length of the
fragment with the blue dot?
Answer:
About 3 inches

Keyword/s:
Produce the first ace
Answer:
10.6th card on the average

Keyword/s:
Keyword/s: (a) number of matches of the card above and be-
(a) Guess how many locomotives low
(b) looked at 5 locomotives, largest 60 (b) letters put into own envelope
Answer: Answer:
(a) 119 (a) 1 match
(b) 71 (b) 1

Keyword/s:
[May 2018] From previous problem: number of matches of
Keyword/s: the card above and below.
(a) average length of the smaller piece Exactly r matches
(b) average ratio of smaller to larger Answer:
Answer: P(r matches in an arrangement of n things)
(a) ¼ of the length = (1/r!)(e–1), for n – r large
(b) 2ln(2) – 1 ≈ 0.386

REFRESHER: APR 2024

Keyword/s:
Position of wise man; marry the young lady;
largest dowry
Answer:
For n = 100, pass 37 and take the first candidate
thereafter

Keyword/s:
Particle, 50-50 1 step north or 1 step south, 50-
Keyword/s: 50 1 step east or 1 step west; returns to origin
King wants the wise man to choose largest num- Answer:
ber from among 100; P(particle at origin) = 1/πn
Answer: P(return to the origin) = 1
Choose a candidate third from last if its value ex-
ceeds 0.6899

Keyword/s:
Unbiased instrument, Measuring distances, ran- Keyword/s:
dom errors, standard deviation, lengths of two Starts at an origin O in three-space; cube 2
cylindrical rods units on a side
Answer: Answer:
Yes, taking two measurements, one on the diff P(return to the origin) = 0.239
and one on the sum, gives estimates whose pre-
cision is equivalent to that where 4 measure-
ments are used, two on each rod separately.

Keyword/s:
Table of infinite expanse; needle (length of 2ℓ
smaller than 2a), twirl, tossed
Answer:
P(needle crosses a parallel) = 2(length of nee-
Keyword/s:
dle)/circumference of circle of radius a
Probability – real roots
Answer:
1 1
𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑥 𝑟𝑜𝑜𝑡𝑠 = ; 𝑅𝑒𝑎𝑙 𝑟𝑜𝑜𝑡𝑠 = 1 −
3√𝐵 3√𝐵

REFRESHER: APR 2024

Keyword/s:
Needle of length 2ℓ (less than 1); rulings
spaced one unit apart; lines the needle crosses
Answer:
Vertical rulings = 4ℓ/π; Horizontal = 4ℓ/π
For a needle of length 1, mean number of
crosses is 4/π ≈ 1.27
Mean total number of crossings is 8ℓ/π

Keyword/s:
Needle of arbitrary length
Answer:
4ℓ/π, Based on experiments ≈3.35

Keyword/s:
Two urns contain same total numbers of balls
Answer:
z^n = x^n + y^n
z: number of white balls in the first urn
x: number of whites in the second urn
y: number of blacks in the second urn

REFRESHER: APR 2024