LESSON FOUR

FERTILITY
2.1 Introduction.
Fertility indicates the actual no of children born alive or it refers to the reproductive performance
rather than possible performance. The term fecundity is used to indicate the physiological ability
to bear children. Its opposite is sterility (unproductiveness)

Live birth

Live birth is the complete expulsion or extraction from its mother of a product of conception
irrespective of the duration of pregnancy which after such separation, breathes or show some
evidence of life
.
Still birth:

Still births is often employed as synonymous with late fetal death say a fetal death of 20 or 28
complete weeks of gestation or more
Maternal Mortality rate

It represents approximately the risk of dying as a result of complications of childbirth or

pregnancy
Dp
= ×100
B
Where Dp =deaths due to childbirth and complications of pregnancy
B =Live Births

2.2 Lesson learning outcomes.

By the end of the lesson , you should be able to;
2.2.1 Define fertility, state different measures used to measure it and problems of its
measurement.
2.2.2 Measure the average size of the family.
2.2.3 Apply these measure to real data and interpret the result.
1.2.1 FERTILITY
2.2.3.1 Basic measures of fertility.
1) CRUDE BIRTH RATE
It is the simplest measure of fertility requiring only total births and total population .It measures
the number of births per 1000 persons in the population
 B
= ×1000
P
where
B=number of birth in time period
P= size of population in the time period

2) GENERAL FERTILITY RATE

This is a step towards restricting the denominator to correct population exposed to risk of having
a baby.

No of birth in a population in a time period

GFR= ×1000
No of women aged 15−44 in a time period
3) AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE

If in addition to the female population by age, births are available according to the age of
mother ,then a schedule of age specific fertility rates may be obtained by dividing the number of
births to the mothers of each age (age group) by the number of females of that age.
Number of Births to females of age group (x,x+dx)
ASFR= ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total number of females of age group (x,x+dx) at the middle of the year

no of children under age 5

= ×1000
females aged 15−44
4) STANDARDIZED BIRTH RATES
It is possible to compare the fertility rates of two population by calculating for each population
the birth rate for each sex by age and comparing the corresponding rates .However when the
structure of the two population is different the comparison of such populations may not be
appropriate.We therefore choose a standard population and subject it to the birth rates of these
two population, comparisons of these two population may then be done.
Thus the standardized birth rate may be defined as the overall birth rate that would have
prevailed in a standard population if it had experienced at each age the birth rates of the
population being studied. There is no uniquely correct standard population and each investigator
is free to use his judgment in choosing a appropriate standard.We will study more of
standardized rates in the next topic of Mortality.

5) TOTAL FERTILITY RATE:

It is obtained by adding the age specific fertility rates for women of each age.When 5-year age
groups are employed, the total must be multiplied by 5,since it is the sum of the rates at every
individual age which is required.
Thus we define the total fertility rate as
“ it represents the number of children that would be born (ignoring mortality) to a hypothetical
group of 1000 women as they pass through the reproductive ages and experience the particular
age specific birth rate on which the index is based”
Although the total fertility rate represents the same female population 15-49 as does the general
fertility rate it is an improvement on the latter rate as it eliminates variations due to differences
in the age distribution between 15-49.It is also regarded as the standardized fertility rate where
the standardized population has the same number of women in each age group. It is also called
the Total period fertility rate.
TPFR=sum of the single year age specific fertility rates
=number of children produced by a hypothetical cohort of women experiencing the given
age specific fertility rates

6) GROSS REPRODUCTIVE RATE

It is simply the sum of the age specific fertility rates for females births only from the age ,15-
49,represents the average number of daughters which ignoring mortality will take place of their
mothers, assuming that the rates of the currect year continue indefinitely.
It is a measure of the average number of daughters produced by women during their complete
life time.
The GRR is usually expressed as the rate per women rather than a rate per 1000 women.

Symbolically

GRR=∑ f x

where fx is the fertility rate at age x specific for sex (i.e females birth to females or male births to
males) and summation is over all age in the reproductive life span.
Sometimes an approximation to the GRR is obtained from TFR by multiplying it by the ratio of
females birth to the total births.
female births
GRR=TFR×
total births

7) NET REPRODUCTIVE RATE(NRR)

The omission of mortality in the calculation of the GRR produce over estimation of
reproductivity .A female born will only replace her mother provided she lives to the age her
ℓx
NRR=∑ f x
ℓ0

|
mother was, the day she was born. So (NRR) is obtained by multiplying the age specific fertility
rate (female only) at a given age by the chance of a female child surviving from birth to the age
group of her mother and summing for all ages of the mother.
Symbolically
where fx is the fertility rate at age x specific for sex, l x+1/2 is the probability of surviving from
birth to age x+1/2 and the summation is over all ages in the reproductive life span.
In case of 5 years cohort
NRR=∑ fx ℓ 1 |ℓ 0
x +2
2
≃∑ f x (T x−T x+5 )/ 5 ℓ 0
The population will increase, will remain stationery or decrease according to whether the net
reproductive rate exceeds equal or is less than unity.
Neither the GRR nor the NRR allows for variations in marriage patterns. If marriage patterns are
abnormal then the NRR and GRR gives misleading results .i.e after war, a sudden increase of
marriage will follow, because of the high fertility in early marriage, by increased birth and
consequently a reproduction rate calculated from the age specific fertility rates obtained would
overstate reproductivity because it assumes that the abnormally high fertility rates will continue
forever.
4.2.3.1 Application of fertility measures on real data.

Example 4.1

Age No of No of Age specific No of Female Total lx /l0

Group women births Fertile rate female ASFR sing
% births year
ASFR
A B B/Ax1000=C T Sing E E/ Fx5=G H
year= Ax1000=F
Cx5
15-19 200 20 100 500 9 45 225 .95

20-24 300 80 267 1335 35 125 625 .87

 25-28 300 100 330 1650 45 150 750 .85

30-35 400 80 200 2000 35 87 870 .83

40-49 400 20 50 500 9 23 230 .8

1600 300 5985%o 133 2690%o

Let the Total population=6000

300
CBR= ×1000=50 %
6000
300
GFR= ×1000=18 %
1000
Age specific fertility rates.
Total period fertility rate=5985%
GRR=Sum of the female single year Age specific fertility rate= 2690%o 0r approx.. 3 girls per
woman.
NRR=∑ f x ℓ x /l o =2 .29
lx /lo =probability of daughter surviving from birth to the age of their mother.

female births
Estimation of GRR=TPFR×
Total births
133
=5985×
300
=2653 %

Example 4.2
Given the data below;
Age group Female Live births Probability of surviving from
Population birth.
15-19 244,000 4,474 0.85
20-24 225,800 28,013 0.80
25-29 194,200 36,440 0.70
30-34 182,300 27,402 0.65
35-39 181,400 14,044 0.60
40-44 177,600 3,176 0.50
45-49 151,100 182 0.45
Calculate and interpret;

(i) Crude birth rate given the total population is 30,000,000.

(ii) General fertility rate.
 (iii) Age specific fertility rate.
(iv) Total fertility rate.
(v) Gross reproduction rate.
(vi) Net reproductive rate.
Solution.

a)

Age Number Number Number Probability Survivors of the

Group of of births. of of Female births
women daughters Age Age daughters
‘000’ specific specific surviving
birth female from birth
rates birth
rates

15-19 16.0 260 127 16.25 7.9 0.85 6.7

20-24 16.4 2244 1093 136.83 66.64 0.80 53.3

25-29 15.8 1894 922 119.87 58.35 0.70 40.9

30-34 15.2 1320 643 86.84 42.3 0.65 27.5

35-39 14.8 916 446 61.89 31.18 0.60 18.7

40-44 15.0 280 136 18.66 9.06 0.50 4.5

45-49 14.5 145 71 10 4.90 0.45 2.2

Total 107.7 7059 3438 450.34 220.33 153.8

Calculate and interpret the value of;

i) General fertility rate=(7059/10700)x1000 =65.5
ii) Total fertility rate=0.450x5=2.25 Average of two children per woman.
iii) Gross reproduction rate=0.220x5=1.1 Average of one daughter per woman.
iv) Net reproduction rate.=5x0.153=0.763<1 population decreases.

4.2.1.2 PROBLEMS OF FERTILITY MEASUREMENT.

1. Birth rate normally refers to births over a particular time period.

2. Birth involves two parents.
3. Multiple births.
4. Polygamy
5. Population involves sterile parents.
6. Fertility is not a random problem it can be deferred. Family planning methods.
 7. Denomination of the birth rate – Difficult to measure – Population at risk – very young
(how young or very old (how old)

4.2.1.3 Determinants of fertility.

1. Marital status.
2. Age at first marriage.
3. Education.
4. Place of residence Rural or Urban
5. Economic status
6. Religion-catholic and muslim factors.
7. Access to Family Planning services.
8. Breastfeeding.-i) Sulking facilitates the release of oxytocin which helps the contraction
of the uterus reducing the probabilities of ovulation.
ii) In some societies it is a taboo to engage in sex when breastfeeding thus increasing the
intervals between births.

4.2.1.4 PARITY PROGRESSION RATIOS

PARITY:
Definition.
It refers to the number of children previously born alive to a woman. Zero parity are
those women who never had a child, one parity women are those who have only one child etc

PARITY PROGRESSION RATIO:(PPR)

Is a proportion of women of a given parity (x children) who advance to the next parity(x+1
children)

Example
Show that the average family size can be expressed as
=a0+a0a1+a0a1a2+…..
where

Parity Progresive Ratio

No of women with (i+1 )th or more children
a i=
No of women with i or more children

Solution.
 no of woman with at least 1 child
a 0=
Total number of women
¿ proportion of women with 1 child

no of women with atleast 2 children

a 1=
Number with one or more

a 0 a1 = proportion of women with 2 children

no of woman with three or more children

a 2=
no of women with twoor more children

No with 1 or more No with 2 or more No with 3 or more

a 0 a 1 a2 = × ×
Total number No with 1 or more No with 2 or more

No with 3 or more
¿ = proportion of women with 3 children
Total number of women

And so on.

Thus
Average family size
=a0+a0a1+a0a1a2+….
total number of children
=
number of women

4.2.3.2 Application of the measure of the average size of the family to real data.
Given below is the data of France and Parity progression ratios of Norway in 1963.
 A PPR
Parity x No of (Norway)
women
With
X children
0 192509 0.93
1 279338 0.91
2 255318 0.87
3 157082 0.85
4 85245 0.96
5 48617 0.73
6 30794 0.73
7 18746 0.71
8 12145 0.62
9 20500

i. Calculate the parity progression ratios of France and the average size of a family in
France.
ii. Compare its family size with that of Norway.

1 A B PRR Product PPR Product of

Parity No of No with = of parity (Norway) progression
x women atleast1children Y/X progressi ratios.
With on
X ratios.
children
0 192509 1094299=X 0.824 0.824 0.93 0.93 0.93
1 279338 901785=Y 0.690 0.569 0.91 0.91x0.93 0.85
2 255318 622447 0.590 0.335 0.87 0.87x0.85 0.72
3 157082 367129 0.588 0.197 0.85 0.85x0.72 0.61
4 85245 216047 0.605 0.119 0.96 0.96x0.61 0.59
5 48617 130802 0.628 0.0748 0.73 0.73x0.59 0.42
6 30794 82185 0.625 0.047 0.73 0.73x0.42 0.31
7 18746 51391 0.635 0.030 0.71 0.71x0.31 0.22
8 12145 32645 0.628 0.018 0.62 0.62x0.22 0.14
9 20500 20500
Total 2.21 4.79

Knowing that for a French woman a0=0.824 indicates that of 1000 women 824 had had at least 1
child 176 never had a child.4
a1=0.690 indicates that among the 824 women who had at least 1 child 824 x 0.690=569 had at
least 2 children 255 had exactly 1 child
Average size of the family =a0+a0xa1+a0xa1xa2+…
Average family size in France =2 children per family
Average size of family in Norway = 5 children per family.

4.2.1.5 Determinants of fertility.

9. Marital status.
10. Age at first marriage.
11. Education.
12. Place of residence Rural or Urban
13. Economic status
14. Religion-catholic and muslim factors.
15. Access to Family Planning services.
16. Breastfeeding.
-i) Sulking facilitates the release of oxytocin which helps the contraction of the uterus
reducing the probabilities of ovulation.
ii) In some societies it is a taboo to engage in sex when breastfeeding thus increasing the
intervals between births.

E-tivity 4.2.3 –Application of Measures of fertility and average family size to real data.

Numbering, pacing and sequencing 4.2.3

Title Application of Measures of fertility and average

family size to real data
Purpose To enable you to measure and interpret the
measures of fertility and the average family size in
the population.
Brief summary of overall task Watch these videos;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYgtEA4iv0g
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUGPL1e0srg

Spark
 New test measures men’s fertility.
Individual task No. of No of births Mort
women ality
rates
Age of
femal
e
births
15-19 52013 1884 0.12
20-24 54307 6371 0.18
25-29 46990 5362 0.15
30-34 40211 2901 0.20
35-39 30401 1170 0.22
40-44 23496 268 0.23

Calculate for England and Wales.

i) General Fertility per 1000 women aged
15-44.
ii) Age specific fertility rate per 1000
women.
iii) Total fertility rate per woman.
iv) Estimate the Gross reproductive rate
v) Net reproductive rate.
Interpret and comment for each of them.
Interaction begins  Post your answers on the discussion forum
4.2.3
 Read what your colleagues have posted.
 In a sentence or two, comment on what two
of your colleagues have posted keeping
netiquette in mind
E-moderator interventions  Focussing group discussion
 Encouraging lurkers (quiet ones) to
contribute
 Providing feedback/ teaching points
 Summarising key points
 Closing the discussion
Schedule and time This activity should take two hours.
Next Mortality.

4.3 Assessment Questions.

1. a) How does breastfeeding reduce fertility?

b) Below you have been given the age specific fertility rates of Kenya and Tobago.
Age age specific fertility rate Kenya (1975)
Trinidad & Tobago (1971)
15 – 19 81 168
20 – 24 212 342
25 – 29 196 357
30 – 34 129 293
35 – 39 86 239
 40 – 44 28 145
45 – 49 5 59

(i) Calculate the total fertility rates in both countries, Interpret the answer.
(ii) Estimate the Gross reproductive rates and state what extra information you need to
calculate the Net reproduction rate.

2. Given below is the distribution of the completed family size for women in
Kenya.

Number of Children (x) Number of women with x Children

Year 2013 Year 2008
0 2302 2322
1 1213 1165
2 1041 1224
3 820 1056
4 738 811
5 566 566
6 450 481
7 328 296
8 262 236
9 148 144
10+ 205 156

Calculate the completed family size in the periods in terms of the parity progression ratios.
Comment on the trend?
1. i) Describe how you might link information on starting, spacing and stopping bearing
children to understand their relative influence on completed fertility levels in a society.
Support your answer using Kenyan data.
ii) Discuss the merits of measuring fertility by retrospective surveys as opposed to
longitudinal surveys.

4.4 References.
1. Hinde, A (1998) Demographic methods. Arnold, London. ISBN-13:9780340718926
2. Newell, C. (1988). Methods and Models in Demography. London: Belhaven. ISBN-
13:9780898624519.
3. Preston, S.H., Heuveline, P. and Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modelling
Population Processes. Oxford: Blackwell. ISBN-13:9781557869512.
4. Rowland, D. (2003) Demographic methods and Concepts. Oxford: OUP. ISBN-13:
0340718927