r

I
) -l

I
Section(a): Statistics
a
I (a)
i

7
v

A + machine is set up and produces good part

B + machine is set up correctly

p(.drB)= A{lal (0.exO.8)

\r{1
P(A) (0.eX0.8) + (0.i)(0.3)

0,72
= u.96 A1
0.75
-

(b)
The probabiligv that the machine is set ur and produces good part

(0.e) (0.8) +- (0.r) (0.3) il/1

0.75 A1
 3

(a) In a stem and leaf diagram, the original data is

easily retrieved
unlike in a histogram.
BI
(b) Mode =20 BI
Median =20 B1

(c) lvfean
7 +9+II+20+20+ 25 + 3g+51
-8=----- MI

22.62s AI

(i) F(x) P(X < x)

l- P(X> x)

I -c-dx
Io x<0
F(x) = lr-, - * 0sx*4 BI
[' x>4

(ii) F(o) P(Xs0): l-c =0

F(4) 1-c-d(16):l M1
Attempt at method to solve for c & d

*C:1, A=-a A1
I6
for both c and d correct
tr-
(iii) f (-t) = It 0sxs4 BI
lo otherwise
for correc t differentiation
 (iv) E(x) = r:+
for I xb@)drandproper Ml
integration

1 ,lt =' u A1

for correct use of limits and correct

answer.

State n(X) = u BI

state var (V) =+ 81 2

State that Xhas a geometric distribution *ithp'6= ] B1

State Var E(V)= 6 [n.b. this must be the answer required, not just the
value of E(X) BI

correct formula {p with numerical p to calculate the variance of X N{1

,Use

State answer Var (V)= W AI

{
(a) Correlation relationship between variable

association/dependence of variables B1

(b)
)x = +1,+
)r=so.l n= 8

(D correct substitute

or equivalent M1,

340.775
A1
",l1tzzes1p,8.4zB7s

0.295 : 0.30 AI

(ii) There is a weak positive relationship between maize

yield and fertilizer input weak, positive B I

(iii) b= 2"v-*O'X)r) - 340'775 = o.oo47o7 lv1 1

72395
2*=-;(>')'

i- 5e'e o.ooqlot(ara\ =r.ro..r

a=l-rt=-g il/1
\ S/
y = 7.2439 + 0.004707x c.a.o. A1 -{ ''.''rF,
lli-i r' - "
 6

6 (a) Binomial:

There is a fixed number of independent trials

: Tl: ;tT[iffi:Tl#:,:?]?l'.::ffil?lt !;iiliiess

and'u"u'.,,

Poisson:

- The number of occurrencies of a particular event must occur in

an interval of fixed length in space or time.
- The events occur at a constant rate 81
- The events must be independenr

(b) (i) P(3<r<5)=,P(x=3 or 4 or 5) fvf 1

= ('i),, rr,'(o rs)". (?),r rt)*1o rs;'u. (?),r*),,(o os;, Ml

: 0.0595821 + 0.0133275 + 0.0044892.

= 0.0773988 AI

(ii) n :60 p =0.05 lv'l I

np :60(0.05) :3
We use a Poisson approximation

-i a{
EJ
P(r = 4) M1
4l

: 0.16803 AI
 7

(a) Let X be a r.v denoting number of defective oranges

n- 20, p:0.1
(i) P[4
X = Bin (20, 0.1)

. x . 6)= Plx- 5] ='o Cr10.1;'10.9;''

N%-u(2' to'l) -
_Ml
= 0.03192 AI

(ii) P[" =
,]l t Plx <21

gP(x = 0) + P(* -i) + P(x = 2)]

t f nt-- n\ D/-- 1\, D/-- rrl \,{t
r- Ml ^ '
sor

.r- f:',co(0.1)0(0.9)20 +to c,10.t;'(0,9)'n +to c,10.1;t1o.l;"] nat

1

t fr
l. - L,J.
12158 + 0.27017 + 0,285 18]

L : 0,32307 o L1 6 Al
13

(b) n=200 p=0.1 [np=20>5, nq=180>5

apply normal approximation] B1

X - 13in (200.01) npq =18 np=20

s 8) P[x s 8.5] BI
P (.v
-
Continuity conection

: Pl=
L '8'sjol
^/ts I standardising lv{ I

= Plt . -2.7 rt]

= l-0Q.7ll):l-0.9966 correct use of tables r1

= 0.0034 correc,t anslver A

 8 (a) til P(x i =+ eg P(x
= = z) =
+= 0.1465

X 0 2 3 4 5 2 correct Bl'
Pr(X=x) 0.0 r 83 0.0733
{fr+si 0. I 954 0. I 563 2 correct Bl
\-)

(ii) rest likely valu€s of x are 3 and 4 stating 3

and 4 Bl

(iii) Plx =5]= t- elx s +l

\
r-lp(x=0)+ p(x=r)+P(x=2)+P(x=3)+P@=\l Mr

= t- [o.ots3+ 0.0733+ 0.1465 + 0.1954 + 0.1954]

=1-0.6289 =0.3777 cao Al

(b) Let X r.v: number of hence goals X - P.(2) B1

Y r.v.: number of awaygoals Y - P"(1) BI

^^l- 'f - X+
T r.v.: total goalsT= Y- " i:)
\.2 ! \.r
'"\t/
. lv{ I

<: '

PIW =0]=e-" =0.2231 A1

 (i) v=yi=l# =t37 B1

(ii) P,(x = 4 =+ e.s.Pr(x =i =+ =0.3452 correct use of M1

poisson formulae

X 0 2 3 4 5 at least 3
probabilities
Pr(x) 4.2466 0.3452 0.2417 0. r 128 0.0395 0.0142 correct lvl I

E all probability
correct A1

L E 24.66 34.52 24.17 l 1,.8 .95 t.42 expected value Iv{ I

E 24.66 34.52 24.17 I 1.28 .3'7

o 27 33 26 8 6

lo-El /. - ).+ t.52 l,.83 3.26 0.63

e_
E
lL 0.2220 0.0669 0. l 386 0.9438 0.0739 Iv{ I

7 .,= y(o-E)t = r.4452

= L/E AI

Ho: distribution is poisson

d.f .= 5 -I= 4 7iO.OS =9.49 xi BI

Since Xi", < 9.49 we do not reject Ho correct Xi^. Xi lvI1

Conclude that the distribution can be modeled by Poison correct conclusion AI

distribution or equivalent
 10

10 (i) Carry out any binomial calculation n : l0 and p : I M1

State cr imply correct three terms (+)'' * 10(3)'(j)+ +s(;)8(r)' Al

[The binomiai coefficients may still be symbolic at this stage]

Obtain answer 0.30 Al
State that each person in the sample is assumed to have probability
I of developing asthma, independently of the others 81 4

(ii) State E1X; = 49 B1

State Var(X) = + or equivalent B1 2

interpret request correctly as P(35 s X < 45) Bl

Evaluate standardised value 15-i; a0 (and/or other end;

r/r
value is 1.065) Ml
Use correct process with tables for required prob, i.e.
2{0(1.065) - 0.5} orequivalent Iv{1
Obtain answ,:r 0.71 Al
[f continuify correction omitted, allow ma.x Bl Ml Ml A0)

\-
 t1

17 State both hypotheses Ho : p = 58, Hr: F > 68 (at any stage) Bl

Calculate sample mean correctly u, ry

12 =
68.83... Bl

State or imply expression

I g),
il\fsoslo - t2 )' or equivarent,
, for unbiased

variance estimate Ml
State or imply correct nu'merical value 3.06. . . for variance or L7 49 . .. for s.d. AI
lBiased variance estimate 2.8056 gets M 0 A0 here unless subsequently
used appropriatelyl

Evaluate test statisti. gg Ml

43.46...112

t-
Obtain correct numerical value 1.64 to 1.65 AI
\ Compare to critical l0% value /11 = 1.363 MI
[Use of nonnal distribution here is M 0, but wrong degrees of freedom (e.g)
can still score M1
Conclude that there is evidence to support the suspicion that diameters are
too large A1
fFinal Al is only available for the correct conclusion based on the correct
comparison]

State that (population) distribution of diameters must be normally distributed BI

State that the sample must be random Bl 2
 12

t2 Calculate expected frequencies, as 250 x 0.15, etc M1

Obtain correct values 37.5, 112.5, 25.0, 62.5, I2.5 A1

Carry out the correct method to calculate the 12 test statistic M2

Obtain correct value 10.256 (allow anything between 10.2 and 10.3) A1

Compare test statistic to the correct critical value of 9.49 MI

Conclude that the owner's probabilities do not give a satisfactory fit AI

State observed frequencies 175, 75 and expected frequencies 166.67, 83.33 B1

15
Calculate test statistic to be 1.25 B1

Compare with any suitable I df 12 value, e.g. 3.84 using a 5% level again N4l

Conclude that the assistant's theory seems consistent with the data Ai
V
I
I
13

Section (b): Nlechanics

l3

Rr = 52 +2.52 -2x5 x 2.5cos100o or equivalent M1

R = 5.966 (1.{) or 6.0 tN) A1

F = ma + his 5.966 :2a M1

a:2.98 (-r't) or 3.0 (rnt'') A1

1{ '=4 or equiv lv{ I

5

Y =20 AI

Distance: IQ7 + 10) (20) or equiv method M1

270m AI