Probability

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected])

DBS&H, CEME-NUST

October 12, 2022

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Probability

The “probability” of an event A in an experiment is supposed to measure

how frequently A is about to occur if we make many trials.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Basic Terminologies

1 Random experiment: one with random outcomes (cannot be

predicted exactly)
2 Trial: each time you repeat an experiment
3 Outcome: the result of an experiment
4 Relative frequency: how many times a specific outcome occurs
within the entire experiment.
5 A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a probability
experiment.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Some sample spaces for various probability experiments are
shown here

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Ordinary Deck of Cards

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Ordinary Deck of Cards

Since there are 4 suits (hearts, diamonds, spades, and clubs) and 13 cards
for each suit (ace through king), there are 52 outcomes in the sample space.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

If the experiment consists of tossing two dice, then the sample space
consists of the 36 points

S = {(i, j) : i, j = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

where the outcome (i, j) is said to occur if i appears on the leftmost die
and j on the other die.

If the experiment consists of measuring (in hours) the lifetime of a

transistor, then the sample space consists of all nonnegative real numbers;
that is,
S = {x : 0 ≤ x < ∞}

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Event

Any subset E of the sample space is known as an event. In other words, an

event is a set consisting of possible outcomes of the experiment
1 If E = {(1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), (6, 1)}, then E is the event
that the sum of the dice equals 7.
2 If E = {x : 0 ≤ x ≤ 5}, then E is the event that the transistor does
not last longer than 5 hours

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Types of Probability

There are three basic interpretations of probability:

1 Classical probability
2 Empirical or relative frequency probability
3 Subjective probability

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Classical probability
uses sample spaces to determine the numerical probability that an event
will happen.

You do not actually have to perform the experiment to determine that

probability
Classical probability assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are
equally likely to occur
Classical probability was the first type of probability studied formally
by mathematicians in the 17th and 18th centuries.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Classical probability

Tossing a coin
If we flip a coin, then heads H and tails T will appear about equally often,
we say that H and T are “equally likely.”

Tossing a Fair Die

For a regularly shaped die of homogeneous material (“fair die”) each of the
six outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 will be equally likely.

Selecting Card from Ordinary deck

When a card is selected from an ordinary deck of 52 cards, you assume that
the deck has been shuffled, and each card has the same probability of being
selected. In this case, it is 1/52.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Formula for Classical Probability

The probability of any event E is

Number of outcomes in E
Total number of outcomes in the sample space
This probability is denoted by

n(E )
P(E ) =
n(S)

This probability is called classical probability, and it uses the sample space
S.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Empirical or relative frequency probability

Empirical probability The difference between classical and empirical

probability is that classical probability assumes that certain
outcomes are equally likely (such as the outcomes when a die
is rolled), while empirical probability relies on actual
experience to determine the likelihood of outcomes. In
empirical probability, one might actually roll a given die 6000
times, observe the various frequencies, and use these
frequencies to determine the probability of an outcome.
Formula for Empirical probability Given a frequency distribution, the
probability of an event being in a given class is

frequency for the class f

P(E ) = =
total frequencies in the distribution n

This probability is called empirical probability and is based on

observation.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Example
A card is drawn from an ordinary deck. Find these probabilities.
(a) Of getting a jack
(b) Of getting the 6 of clubs (i.e., a 6 and a club)
(c) Of getting a 3 or a diamond
(d) Of getting a 3 or a 6
4
(a)-P(jack)= 52 , (b)-P(6 of clubs)=1/52, (c)-P(3 or diamond)= 16
52 ,
8
(d)-P(3 or a 6)= 52

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Example
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had type A blood, 5 had
type B blood, and 2 had type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution
and find the following probabilities.
(i) A person has type O blood.
(ii) A person has type A or type B blood.
(iii) A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
(iv) A person does not have type AB blood
Type Frequency
A 22
B 5 2
(i)=22/50, (ii)=27/50, (iii)=7/50, (iv)=1- 50 .
AB 2
O 21
Total 50

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Four Basic Rules for Probability

The probability of any event E is a number (either a fraction or decimal)

between and including 0 and 1. This is denoted by

0 ≤ P(E ) ≤ 1.
Rule 1 states that probabilities cannot be negative or greater than 1.

If an event E cannot occur (i.e., the event contains no members in the

sample space), its probability is 0.
When a single die is rolled, find the probability of getting a 9.

If an event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1.

When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of getting a
number less than 7?

The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample space is 1.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Basic Rules for Probability

0 ≤ P(E ) ≤ 1, E ⊆ S
P(S) = 1,
P For entire space S (1)
P(E ) = 1

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability
 0 ≤ P(E ) ≤ 1, E ⊆ S
P(S) = 1,
P For entire space S
P(E ) = 1

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Three horses A, B and C are in a race; A is twice as likely to
win as B and B is twice as likely to win as C . What are
their respective probabilities of winning?

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Complementary Events

Another important concept in probability theory is that of complementary

events. When a die is rolled, for instance, the sample space consists of the
outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. The event E of getting odd numbers consists
of the outcomes 1, 3, and 5. The event of not getting an odd number is
called the complement of event E, and it consists of the outcomes 2, 4, and
6.
Complement of an event E
The complement of an event E is the set of outcomes in the
sample space that are not included in the outcomes of event
E The complement of E is denoted by E c = S \ E
Rule for Complementary Events
P(E c ) = 1 − P(E ) E ⊆ S. (2)
If the probability of an event or the probability of its complement is known,
then the other can be found by subtracting the probability from 1.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Let a coin and a die be tossed; let the sample space S
consist of twelve elements

(i) Express explicitly the following events

A = {Heads and even numbers appear}
B = {A prime number appears}
C = {Tails and odd numbers appear}
(ii) Express explicitly that events
(a) A or B occurs
(b) B and C occurs
(c) Only B occurs
(iii) Which of the events A, B and C are mutually exclusive?

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Five coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of
the event E : At least one head turns up. Assume that the
coins are fair.

1
that is TTTTT
Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability
Five coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of
the event E : At least one head turns up. Assume that the
coins are fair.

Since each coin can turn up heads or tails, the sample space consists of
outcomes. Since the coins are fair, we may assign the same probability to
each outcome. Then the event (No heads turn up) consists of only 1
1 31
outcome1 . Hence P(E c ) = 1/32. Thus P(E ) = 1 − 32 = 32 .
1
that is TTTTT
Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability
Hospital records indicated that Dengue patients stayed in the hospital for
the number of days shown in the distribution.
Number Frequency
of days Find these probabilities.
3 15 (a) A patient stayed exactly 5 days.
4 32
(b) A patient stayed less than 6 days.
5 56
6 19 (c) A patient stayed at most 4 days.
7 5 (d) A patient stayed at least 5 days.
127

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

The Addition Rules for Probability

Many problems involve finding the probability of two or more events. For
example, at a large political gathering, you might wish to know, for a
person selected at random, the probability that the person is a female or is
a Republican. In this case, there are three possibilities to consider:
1. The person is a female.
2. The person is a Republican.
3. The person is both a female and a Republican.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Consider another example. At the same gathering there are Republicans,
Democrats, and Independents. If a person is selected at random, what is
the probability that the person is a Democrat or an Independent? In this
case, there are only two possibilities:
1. The person is a Democrat.
2. The person is an Independent.
The difference between the two examples is that in the first case, the
person selected can be a female and a Republican at the same time. In the
second case, the person selected cannot be both a Democrat and an
Independent at the same time. In the second case, the two events are said
to be mutually exclusive; in the first case, they are not mutually exclusive.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events are mutually exclusive events if they cannot occur at the same
time (i.e., they have no outcomes in common). Two events A and B are
mutually exclusive events if A ∩ B = ∅.
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and which are not, when a
single die is rolled.
a. Getting an odd number and getting an even number
b. Getting a 3 and getting an odd number
c. Getting an odd number and getting a number less than 4
d. Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a number less than 4

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Probability for Mutually Exclusive Events When two events A and B are
mutually exclusive, the probability that A or B will occur is
P(A or B) = P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) (3)
Probability for non-Mutually Exclusive Events When two events A and B
are mutually exclusive, the probability that A or B will occur
is
P(A or B) = P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B). (4)

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

1 A day of the week is selected at random. Find the probability that it is
a weekend day.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

1 A day of the week is selected at random. Find the probability that it is
a weekend day.Solution:
P(Saturday or Sunday)=2/7
2 A single card is drawn at random from an ordinary deck of cards. Find
the probability that it is either an king or a black card.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

1 A day of the week is selected at random. Find the probability that it is
a weekend day.Solution:
P(Saturday or Sunday)=2/7
2 A single card is drawn at random from an ordinary deck of cards. Find
the probability that it is either an king or a black card.Solution:
P(king or black card) = P(king) + P(black card) - P(black king)

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

 1 A day of the week is selected at random. Find the probability that it is
a weekend day.Solution:
P(Saturday or Sunday)=2/7
2 A single card is drawn at random from an ordinary deck of cards. Find
the probability that it is either an king or a black card.Solution:
P(king or black card) = P(king) + P(black card) - P(black king)=
4/52+26/52-2/52=7/13.
For three events that are not mutually exclusive, P(A or B or C) =

P(A ∪ B ∪ C ) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C )

− {P(A ∩ B) + P(B ∩ C ) + P(C ∩ A)}
+P(A ∩ B ∩ C )

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

A class contains 10 men and 20 women of which half the
men and half the women have brown eyes. Find the
probability p that a person is chosen at random is a man or
has brown eyes.

P{man or brown eye} = 2/3

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Tree Diagram
A tree diagram is a device consisting of line segments emanating from a
starting point and also from the outcome point. It is used to determine all
possible outcomes of a probability experiment.
Example
Letting the shirts be represented by S1 , S2 and the ties by T1 , T2 , T3 , T4 ,
the various ways of choosing a shirt and then a tie are indicated in the tree
diagram of Fig

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The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

The Multiplication Rules

The multiplication rules can be used to find the probability of two or more
events that occur in sequence. For example, if you toss a coin and then roll
a die, you can find the probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on
the die. These two events are said to be independent since the outcome of
the first event (tossing a coin) does not affect the probability outcome of
the second event (rolling a die).
Independent Events
Two events A and B are independent events if the fact that A
occurs does not affect the probability of B occurring.
Rolling a die and getting a 6, and then rolling a second die and getting a 3.
Dependent Events
When the outcome or occurrence of the first event affects the
outcome or occurrence of the second event in such a way
that the probability is changed, the events are said to be
dependent events.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Here are some examples of dependent events:
Drawing a card from a deck, not replacing it, and then drawing a second
card.
Selecting a ball from an urn, not replacing it, and then selecting a second
ball.
Independent Events (Multiplication Rule 1)
When two events are independent, the probability of both
occurring is
P(A and B) = P(A ∩ B) = P(A).P(B) (5)
Dependent Events (Multiplication Rule 2)
When two events are dependent, the probability of both
occurring is
P(A ∩ B)
P(A and B) = P(A ∩ B) = P(A).P(B/A) P(B/A) = (6)
P(A)
P(B/A) denotes the probability of B given that event A has occurred.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

For any three events A1 , A2 , A3 , we have

P(A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 ) = P(A1 ).P(A2 /A1 ).P(A3 /(A1 ∩ A2 ))

In words, the probability that A1 and A2 and A3 all occur is equal to the
probability that A1 occurs times the probability that A2 occurs given that
A1 has occurred times the probability that A3 occurs given that both A1
and A2 have occurred.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not replaced. Find the
probability of these events.
1 Getting 3 jacks
2 Getting an ace a king, and a queen in order
3 Getting a club, a spade, and a heart in order
4 Getting 3 clubs

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not replaced. Find the
probability of these events.
1 Getting 3 jacks
2 Getting an ace a king, and a queen in order
3 Getting a club, a spade, and a heart in order
4 Getting 3 clubs
Solution:
4 3 2 1
(a) P(3 jacks) = 52 . 51 . 50 = 5525
4 4 4
(b) P(ace and king and queen)= 52 . 51 . 50
13 13 13
(c) P(club and spade and heart) = 52 . 51 . 50
(d) P(3 clubs) = 13 12 11
52 . 51 . 50 .
Two cards are drawn from a well-shuffled ordinary deck of 52 cards. Find
the probability that they are both aces if the first card is (a) replaced, (b)
not replaced.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

1 Find the probability that a single toss of a die will result in a number
less than 4 if
(a) no other information is given
(b) it is given that the toss resulted in an odd number.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

1 Find the probability that a single toss of a die will result in a number
less than 4 if
(a) no other information is given
(b) it is given that the toss resulted in an odd number.
Solution:
1
B = {No. less than 4}, A = {Odd No.}, P(B) = ,
2
P(A) =?, P(B) =?, P(A ∩ B) =?, P(B/A) =?

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

1 Find the probability that a single toss of a die will result in a number
less than 4 if
(a) no other information is given
(b) it is given that the toss resulted in an odd number.
Solution:
1
B = {No. less than 4}, A = {Odd No.}, P(B) = ,
2
P(A) =?, P(B) =?, P(A ∩ B) =?, P(B/A) =?
What do you mean by P(B/A) and P(A ∩ B)?

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

1 Find the probability that a single toss of a die will result in a number
less than 4 if
(a) no other information is given
(b) it is given that the toss resulted in an odd number.
Solution:
1
B = {No. less than 4}, A = {Odd No.}, P(B) = ,
2
P(A) =?, P(B) =?, P(A ∩ B) =?, P(B/A) =?
What do you mean by P(B/A) and P(A ∩ B)?
2 World Wide Insurance Company found that 53% of the residents of a
city had home owner’s insurance (H) with the company. Of these
clients, 27% also had automobile insurance (A) with the company. If a
resident is selected at random, find the probability that the resident
has both home owner’s and automobile insurance with World Wide
Insurance Company.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

1 Find the probability that a single toss of a die will result in a number
less than 4 if
(a) no other information is given
(b) it is given that the toss resulted in an odd number.
Solution:
1
B = {No. less than 4}, A = {Odd No.}, P(B) = ,
2
P(A) =?, P(B) =?, P(A ∩ B) =?, P(B/A) =?
What do you mean by P(B/A) and P(A ∩ B)?
2 World Wide Insurance Company found that 53% of the residents of a
city had home owner’s insurance (H) with the company. Of these
clients, 27% also had automobile insurance (A) with the company. If a
resident is selected at random, find the probability that the resident
has both home owner’s and automobile insurance with World Wide
Insurance Company.

P(H) = 0.53, P(A/H) = 0.27, P(H ∩ A) =?

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

 1 A fair die is tossed twice. Find the probability of getting a 4, 5, or 6
on the first toss and a 1, 2, 3, or 4 on the second toss.
Let A1 be the event “4, 5, or 6 on first toss,” and A2 be the event “1, 2, 3,
or 4 on second toss.” Then we are looking for P(A1 ∩ A2).
Method#1 Each of the 3 ways in which A1 can occur can be associated
with each of the 4 ways in which A2 can occur to give
3 · 4 = 12 ways in which both A1 and A2 can occur out of
total 36 ways. Then
12
P(A1 ∩ A2) =
36

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

 1 A fair die is tossed twice. Find the probability of getting a 4, 5, or 6
on the first toss and a 1, 2, 3, or 4 on the second toss.
Let A1 be the event “4, 5, or 6 on first toss,” and A2 be the event “1, 2, 3,
or 4 on second toss.” Then we are looking for P(A1 ∩ A2).
Method#1 Each of the 3 ways in which A1 can occur can be associated
with each of the 4 ways in which A2 can occur to give
3 · 4 = 12 ways in which both A1 and A2 can occur out of
total 36 ways. Then
12
P(A1 ∩ A2) =
36
Method#2
P(A1 ∩ A2) = P(A1)P(A2/A1)
The fact that the result of the second toss is independent of
the first so that P(A2/A1) = P(A2). Thus

P(A1 ∩ A2) = P(A1)P(A2) =

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Suppose that our sample space S is the population of adults in a small
town who have completed the requirements for a college degree. We shall
categorize them according to gender and employment status. The data are
given in Table

Employed Unemployed Total

Male 460 40 500
Female 140 260 400
Total 600 300 900
One of these individuals is to be selected at random find the probability
that the selected person is employed and male.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Suppose that our sample space S is the population of adults in a small
town who have completed the requirements for a college degree. We shall
categorize them according to gender and employment status. The data are
given in Table

Employed Unemployed Total

Male 460 40 500
Female 140 260 400
Total 600 300 900
One of these individuals is to be selected at random find the probability
that the selected person is employed and male.

Suppose M : a male is chosen and E : the chosen one is employed. Find

P(M/E )

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Box-1 contains 2 red balls and 1 blue ball. Box-2 contains 3
blue balls and 1 red ball. A coin is tossed. If it falls heads
up, Box-1 is selected and a ball is drawn. If it falls tails up,
Box-2 is selected and a ball is drawn. Find the probability of
selecting a red ball.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Box-1 contains 2 red balls and 1 blue ball. Box-2 contains 3
blue balls and 1 red ball. A coin is tossed. If it falls heads
up, Box-1 is selected and a ball is drawn. If it falls tails up,
Box-2 is selected and a ball is drawn. Find the probability of
selecting a red ball.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Box-1 contains 2 red balls and 1 blue ball. Box-2 contains 3
blue balls and 1 red ball. A coin is tossed. If it falls heads
up, Box-1 is selected and a ball is drawn. If it falls tails up,
Box-2 is selected and a ball is drawn. Find the probability of
selecting a red ball.
How can we get red ball?
1 Selecting Box. “ Box-1 or
Box-2"
2 Find red ball.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Box-1 contains 2 red balls and 1 blue ball. Box-2 contains 3
blue balls and 1 red ball. A coin is tossed. If it falls heads
up, Box-1 is selected and a ball is drawn. If it falls tails up,
Box-2 is selected and a ball is drawn. Find the probability of
selecting a red ball.
How can we get red ball?
1 Selecting Box. “ Box-1 or
Box-2"
2 Find red ball.

P(red ball) = P(red ball from Box-1)

+P(red ball from Box-2)

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Box-1 contains 2 red balls and 1 blue ball. Box-2 contains 3
blue balls and 1 red ball. A coin is tossed. If it falls heads
up, Box-1 is selected and a ball is drawn. If it falls tails up,
Box-2 is selected and a ball is drawn. Find the probability of
selecting a red ball.
How can we get red ball?
1 Selecting Box. “ Box-1 or
Box-2"
2 Find red ball.

P(red ball) = P(red ball from Box-1)

+P(red ball from Box-2)

2 1
P(red ball) = P(B1)P(R/B1) + P(B2)P(R/B2) = + =
6 8

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Box-1 contains 2 red balls and 1 blue ball. Box-2 contains 3
blue balls and 1 red ball. A coin is tossed. If it falls heads
up, Box-1 is selected and a ball is drawn. If it falls tails up,
Box-2 is selected and a ball is drawn. Find the probability of
selecting a red ball.
How can we get red ball?
1 Selecting Box. “ Box-1 or
Box-2"
2 Find red ball.

P(red ball) = P(red ball from Box-1)

+P(red ball from Box-2)

2 1 11
P(red ball) = P(B1)P(R/B1) + P(B2)P(R/B2) = + =
6 8 24

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Next determine the probabilities for each branch. Since a coin is being
tossed for the box selection, each branch has a probability of 12 that is,
heads for box 1 or tails for box 2. The probabilities for the second branches
are found by using the basic probability rule. For example, if box 1 is
selected and there are 2 red balls and 1 blue ball, the probability of selecting
a red ball is 23 and the probability of selecting a blue ball is 13 . If box 2 is
selected and it contains 3 blue balls and 1 red ball, then the probability of
selecting a red ball is 1/4 and the probability of selecting a blue ball is 3/4.
Next multiply the probability for each outcome, using the rule
P(red and Box − 1) = P(Box − 1).P(red/Box − 1).
For example, the probability of selecting box 1 and selecting a red ball
is
1 2 2
. = .
2 3 6

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

The probability of selecting box 2 and selecting a red ball is obtained
using the rule P(red and Box − 2) = P(Box − 2).P(red/Box − 2).

1 1 1
. = .
2 4 8
The probability of selecting box 2 and a blue ball is (Note that the sum of
these probabilities is 1.)
Finally a red ball can be selected from either box 1 or box 2 so
P(red) = 26 + 18 = 1124 .

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women in the armed
forces should be permitted to participate in combat. The results of the
Gender Yes No Total
Male 32 18 50
survey are shown.
Female 8 42 50
Total 40 60 100
Find these probabilities.
a. The respondent answered yes, given that the respondent was a female.
b. The respondent was a male, given that the respondent answered no.
Solution:
Let

M = respondent was a male Y= respondent answered yes

F = respondent was a female N = respondent answered no

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

 Gender Yes No Total
Male 32 18 50
Female 8 42 50
Total 40 60 100
P(F and Y )
P(Y /F ) =
P(F )
The probability P(F and Y) is the number of females who responded yes,
divided by the total number of respondents: Thus P(F and Y ) = 8/100.
50
The probability P(F) is the probability of selecting a female: P(F ) = 100 .

P(F and Y ) 8/100 4

P(Y /F ) = = =
P(F ) 50/100 25
The problem is to find P(Y /F ). The rule states b. The problem is to find
P(M/N).
P(M and N) 18/100 3
P(M/N) = = = .
P(N) 60/100 10

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

1 A fair die is tossed twice. Find the probability of getting a 4, 5, or 6
on the first toss and a 1, 2, 3, or 4 on the second toss.
2 The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking zone and gets a
parking ticket is 0.06, and the probability that Sam cannot find a legal
parking space and has to park in the no parking zone is 0.20. On
Tuesday, Sam arrives at school and has to park in a no-parking zone.
Find the probability that he will get a parking ticket.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Consider the data according to gender and employment status as follows

Employed Unemployed Total

Male 460 40 500
Female 140 260 400
Total 600 300 900
1 Suppose that an additional information that 36 of those employed and
12 of those unemployed are members of the Army Club, is given.
2 We wish to find the probability of the event A that the individual
selected is a member of the Army Club.

Let E denotes the set of employed persons the E c represents unemployed

E ∩ A represents “Employed members of A”

E c ∩ A represents “Unemployed members of A”

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

A is union of two mutually exclusive events E ∩ A and E c ∩ A

P(A) =P[(E ∩ A) ∪ (E c ∩ A)] = P(E ∩ A) + P(E c ∩ A)

=P(E )P(A/E ) + P(E c )P(A/E c )

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

If the events B1 , B2 , · · · , Bk constitute a partition of the sample space S
such that P(Bi) 6= 0 for i = 1, 2, · · · , k, then for any event A of S,
k
X k
X
P(A) = P(Bi ∩ A) = P(Bi )P(A/Bi ).
i=1 i=1

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Bayes’ Theorem or Rule

In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1 , B2 , and B3 , make 30%,

45%, and 25%, respectively, of the products. It is known from past
experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of the products made by each machine,
respectively, are defective. Now, suppose that a finished product is
randomly selected.
1 What is the probability that it is defective?
2 If a product was chosen randomly and found to be defective, what is
the probability that it was made by machine B3 ?

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Bayes’ Theorem or Rule

In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1 , B2 , and B3 , make 30%,

45%, and 25%, respectively, of the products. It is known from past
experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of the products made by each machine,
respectively, are defective. Now, suppose that a finished product is
randomly selected.
1 What is the probability that it is defective?
2 If a product was chosen randomly and found to be defective, what is
the probability that it was made by machine B3 ?

1 P(the product is defective)

2 P(?) In this case, the outcome is known, the product is defective, and you are asked to find the probability
that it came from B3

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Bayes’ Theorem or Rule

In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1 , B2 , and B3 , make 30%,

45%, and 25%, respectively, of the products. It is known from past
experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of the products made by each machine,
respectively, are defective. Now, suppose that a finished product is
randomly selected.
1 P(D) = P(B1 )P(D/B1 ) + P(B2 )P(D/B2 ) + P(B3 )P(D/B3 )
2 Find P(B3 /D)?

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Bayes’ Theorem or Rule

In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1 , B2 , and B3 , make 30%,

45%, and 25%, respectively, of the products. It is known from past
experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of the products made by each machine,
respectively, are defective. Now, suppose that a finished product is
randomly selected.
1 P(D) = P(B1 )P(D/B1 ) + P(B2 )P(D/B2 ) + P(B3 )P(D/B3 )
2 Find P(B3 /D)?

P(B3 ∩ D) P(B3 )P(D/B3 )

P(B3 /D) = =
P(D) P(B1 )P(D/B1 ) + P(B2 )P(D/B2 ) + P(B3 )P(D/B3 )

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Bayes’ Theorem or Rule

Theorem
Suppose that A1 , A2 , · · · , An are mutually exclusive events whose union
is the sample space S, i.e., one of the events must occur. Then if A is any
event, we have
P(Ak )P(A/Ak )
P(Ak /A) = Pn
j=1 P(Aj )P(A/Aj )

For two events A and B, where event B follows event A, event A can occur
in A1 , A2 , · · · , An mutually exclusive ways, and event B can occur in
B1 , B2 , · · · , Bm mutually exclusive ways, for any specific events A1 and B1 .

P(A1 ).P(B1 /A1 )

P(A1 /B1 ) =
P(A1 ).P(B1/A1) + P(A2 ).P(B1 /A2 ) + · · · + P(An )P(B1 /An )

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

In the a previous example, there were two boxes, each containing red balls
and blue balls. A box was selected and a ball was drawn. The example
asked for the probability that the ball selected was red.
2 1 11
P(red ball) = P(B1)P(R/B1) + P(B2)P(R/B2) = + =
6 8 24

Now, a different question can be asked:

If the ball is red, what is the probability it came from box 1? In this case, the
outcome is known, a red ball was selected, and you are asked to find the probability that it is a result of a previous
event, that it came from box 1.

P(B1 ∩ R)
P(Box1 given red ball) = P(B1/R) =
P(R)

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

A shipment of two boxes, each containing six telephones, is
received by a store. Box 1 contains one defective phone, and
box 2 contains two defective phones. After the boxes are
unpacked, a phone is selected and found to be defective.
Find the probability that it came from box 2.
1 Select the proper notation. Let A1 represent box 1 and A2 represent
box 2. Let D represent a defective phone and ND represent a phone
that is not defective.
2 Draw a tree diagram and find the corresponding probabilities for each
branch. The probability of selecting box 1 is ?, and the probability of
selecting box 2 is ?. Since there is one defective phone in box 1 ?, the
probability of selecting it is ? . The probability of selecting a
nondefective phone from box 1 is . Since there are two defective
phones in box 2, the probability of selecting a defective phone from
box 2 is , or ; and the probability of selecting a non defective phone is
, or . The tree diagram is
Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability
Write the corresponding formula. Since the example is asking for the
probability that, given a defective phone, it came from box 2, the
corresponding formula is as shown. P(A2 /D) =?
Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability
P(A2 /D) =?

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

On a game show, a contestant can select one of four boxes.
Box 1 contains one $100 bill and nine $1 bills. Box 2
contains two $100 bills and eight $1 bills. Box 3 contains
three $100 bills and seven $1 bills. Box 4 contains five $100
bills and five $1 bills. The contestant selects a box at
random and selects a bill from the box at random. If a $100
bill is selected, find the probability that it came from box 4.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability
Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability
A real estate agent has 8 master keys to open several new homes. Only 1 master
key will open any given house. If 40% of these homes are usually left unlocked,
what is the probability that the real estate agent can get into a specific home if the
agent selects 3 master keys at random before leaving the office?

The real estate agent can get into a specific home in following conditions
(1) The
| home {z
is unlocked.}
U
(2) The
| {z is locked} but he
home chose an appropriate key.
| {z }
L K
 
Estate agent
 can get into 
P  = P(U) + P(L ∩ K ),
 a specific  | {z } | {z }
home 0.4 P(L).P(K )

(selecting 1 appropriate key)(Selecting 2 keys out of 7)

P(K ) =
chosing 3 out of 8 keys

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

A town has two fire engines operating independently. The probability that a
specific engine is available when needed is 0.96.
1 What is the probability that neither is available when needed?
2 What is the probability that a fire engine is available when needed?

Solution:
1

P(Ac1 ∩ Ac2 ) = P(Ac1 ).P(Ac2 ) = {1 − P(A1 )} . {1 − P(A2 )}

2 P(at least one fire engine is available )

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

A producer of a certain type of electronic component ships to suppliers in lots of
twenty. Suppose that 60% of all such lots contain no defective components, 30%
contain one defective component, and 10% contain two defective components. A
lot is picked, two components from the lot are randomly selected and tested, and
neither is defective.
1 What is the probability that zero defective components exist in the lot?
2 What is the probability that one defective exists in the lot?
3 What is the probability that two defectives exist in the lot?

Let Di denote lot contain i defective components

P(D0 ) = 0.6, P(D1 ) = 0.3, P(D2 ) = 0.1

N = {A lot is picked, two components from the lot are randomly selected
and tested, and neither is defective.} P(D0 /N) =?, P(D1 /N) =?,
P(D2 /N) =?

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability
Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability
A certain form of cancer is known to be found in women over 60 with probability
0.07. A blood test exists for the detection of the disease, but the test is not
infallible. In fact, it is known that 10% of the time the test gives a false negative
(i.e., the test incorrectly gives a negative result) and 5% of the time the test gives
a false positive (i.e., incorrectly gives a positive result). If a woman over 60 is
known to have taken the test and received a favorable (i.e., negative) result, what
is the probability that she has the disease?

Let C be the event that the women over 60

has certain form of cancer P(C ) = 0.07.
Let A denotes that test results in positive.
It is known that 10% of the time the test P(C /Ac ) =?
gives a false negative P(Ac /C ) = 0.1
It is known that 5% of the time the test
gives a false positive P(A/C c ) = 0.05.

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

 P(Ac /C )P(C )
P(C /Ac ) =
P(Ac /C c )P(C c ) + P(Ac /C )P(C )
P(Ac /C c ) = 1 − P(A/C c ) = 1 − .005 = 0.95

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability

QUIZ #1 & QUIZ # 2
1 An urn contains 5 red balls and 4 green balls. A ball is drawn.
(a) If it’s green a two red balls are added to the urn and if it’s red a one
green ball and one red ball are add from the urn. (The original ball is
not returned to the urn.) Then a second ball is drawn. What is the
probability the second ball is red?
(b) If it’s green a red ball is added to the urn and if it’s red a green ball is
added to the urn. (The original ball is not returned to the urn.) Then a
second ball is drawn. What is the probability the that both balls are of
different colors?
2 For married couples living in a certain suburb, the probability that the
husband will vote on a bond referendum is 0.21, the probability that
the wife will vote on the referendum is 0.28, and the probability that
both the husband and the wife will vote is 0.15. What is the
probability that
(i) at least one member of a married couple will vote?
(ii) a wife will vote, given that her husband will vote?
(iii) a husband will vote, given that his wife will not vote?

Dr. Yasir Ali ([email protected]) Probability