Financial Statements Analysis and

Financial Models

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 Know how to standardize financial statements for
comparison purposes
 Know how to compute and interpret important
financial ratios
 Be able to develop a financial plan using the
percentage of sales approach
 Understand how capital structure and dividend
policies affect a firm’s ability to grow

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3.1 Financial Statements Analysis
3.2 Ratio Analysis
3.3 The DuPont Identity
3.4 Financial Models
3.5 External Financing and Growth
3.6 Some Caveats Regarding Financial Planning Models

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 Standardized statements make it easier to compare
financial information, particularly as the company
grows.
 They are also useful for comparing companies of
different sizes, particularly within the same industry.
 Common-Size Balance Sheets
◦ Compute all accounts as a percent of total assets
 Common-Size Income Statements
◦ Compute all line items as a percent of sales

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 Ratios also allow for better comparison through time or
between companies.
 As we look at each ratio, ask yourself:
◦ How is the ratio computed?
◦ What is the ratio trying to measure and why?
◦ What is the unit of measurement?
◦ What does the value indicate?
◦ How can we improve the company’s ratio?

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 Short-term solvency, or liquidity, ratios
 Long-term solvency, or financial leverage, ratios
 Asset management, or turnover, ratios
 Profitability ratios
 Market value ratios

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 Current Ratio = CA / CL
◦ $708 / $540 = 1.31 times
 Quick Ratio = (CA – Inventory) / CL
◦ ($708 – $422) / $540 = .53 times
 Cash Ratio = Cash / CL
◦ $98 / $540 = .18 times

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 Total Debt Ratio = (TA – TE) / TA
◦ ($3,588 – 2591) / $3588 = .28 times
 Debt-Equity Ratio = TD / TE
◦ $.28 / $.72 = .38 times
 Equity Multiplier = TA / TE = 1 + D-E
◦ 1 + .385 = 1.385 times

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 Times Interest Earned = EBIT / Interest
◦ $600 / $141 = 4.26 times
 Cash Coverage = (EBIT + Depreciation and
Amortization) / Interest
◦ ($600 + 276) / $141 = 6.22 times

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 Inventory Turnover = Cost of Goods Sold / Inventory
◦ $1,435 / $422 = 3.40 times
 Days’ Sales in Inventory = 365 / Inventory Turnover
◦ 365 / 3.40 = 107.37 days

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 Receivables Turnover = Sales / Accounts Receivable
◦ $2,311 / $188 = 12.29 times
 Days’ Sales in Receivables = 365 / Receivables
Turnover
◦ 365 / 12.29 = 29.69 days

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 Total Asset Turnover = Sales / Total Assets
◦ $2,311 / $3,588 = .64 times
◦ It is not unusual for TAT < 1, especially if a firm has a large
amount of fixed assets.

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 Profit Margin = Net Income / Sales
◦ $363 / $2,311 = 15.7%
 EBITDA Margin = EBITDA / Sales
◦ $876 / $2,311 = 37.91%
 Return on Assets (ROA) = Net Income / Total Assets
◦ $363 / $3,588 = 10.1%
 Return on Equity (ROE) = Net Income / Total Equity
◦ $363 / $2,591 = 13.99%

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 Price-Earnings Ratio = Price per share / Earnings per share
◦ $88 / $11 = 8.01 times
 Market-to-Book Ratio = market value per share / book value
per share
◦ $88 / ($2,591 / 33) = 1.12 times
 Market Capitalization = Price per share × Shares outstanding
◦ $88 × 33 million = $2,904 million
 Enterprise Value (EV) = Market capitalization + Market value
of interest-bearing debt – Cash
◦ (In millions) $2,904 + (196 + 457) – 98 = $3,459 million
 EV Multiple = EV / EBITDA
◦ $3,459 / $876 = 3.95 times

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 Ratios are not very helpful by themselves: they need to
be compared to something
 Time Trend Analysis
◦ Used to see how the firm’s performance is changing through
time
 Peer Group Analysis
◦ Compare to similar companies or within industries
◦ SIC and NAICS codes

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 Return on Equity = NI / TE
 Multiply by 1 and then rearrange:
◦ ROE = (NI / TE) (TA / TA)
◦ ROE = (NI / TA) (TA / TE) = ROA × EM
 Multiply by 1 again and then rearrange:
◦ ROE = (NI / TA) (TA / TE) (Sales / Sales)
◦ ROE = (NI / Sales) (Sales / TA) (TA / TE)
◦ ROE = PM × TAT × EM

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 ROE = PM × TAT × EM
◦ Profit margin is a measure of the firm’s operating efficiency—
how well it controls costs.
◦ Total asset turnover is a measure of the firm’s asset use
efficiency—how well it manages its assets.
◦ Equity multiplier is a measure of the firm’s financial leverage.

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 ROA = 10.11% and EM = 1.38
 ROE = 10.11% × 1.385 = 13.99%
 PM = .1569 and TAT =.64
◦ ROE = .1569 × .64 × 1.38 = 13.99%

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 There is no underlying theory, so there is no way to
know which ratios are most relevant.
 Benchmarking is difficult for diversified firms.
 Globalization and international competition make
comparison more difficult because of differences in
accounting regulations.
 Firms use varying accounting procedures.
 Firms have different fiscal years.
 Extraordinary, or one-time, events

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 Investment in new assets—determined by capital
budgeting decisions
 Degree of financial leverage—determined by capital
structure decisions
 Cash paid to shareholders—determined by dividend
policy decisions
 Liquidity requirements—determined by net working
capital decisions

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 Sales Forecast—many cash flows depend directly on the level
of sales (often estimate sales growth rate)
 Pro Forma Statements—setting up the plan as projected (pro
forma) financial statements allows for consistency and ease of
interpretation
 Asset Requirements—the additional assets that will be
required to meet sales projections
 Financial Requirements—the amount of financing needed to
pay for the required assets
 Plug Variable—determined by management decisions about
what type of financing will be used (makes the balance sheet
balance)
 Economic Assumptions—explicit assumptions about the
coming economic environment

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 Some items vary directly with sales, others do not.
 Income Statement
◦ Costs may vary directly with sales—if this is the case, then
the profit margin is constant
◦ Depreciation and interest expense may not vary directly
with sales—if this is the case, then the profit margin is not
constant
◦ Dividends are a management decision and generally do not
vary directly with sales—this affects additions to retained
earnings

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 Balance Sheet
◦ Initially assume all assets, including fixed, vary directly
with sales.
◦ Accounts payable also normally vary directly with sales.
◦ Notes payable, long-term debt, and equity generally do not
vary with sales because they depend on management
decisions about capital structure.
◦ The change in the retained earnings portion of equity will
come from the dividend decision.
 External Financing Needed (EFN)
◦ The difference between the forecasted increase in assets
and the forecasted increase in liabilities and equity.

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 External Financing Needed (EFN) can also be
calculated as:

EFN
= ($3,000/$1,000) × ($250) – ($300/$1,000) × ($250) – (.132 × $1,250 × (1 – .3333)

= $565

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 At low growth levels, internal financing (retained
earnings) may exceed the required investment in
assets.
 As the growth rate increases, the internal financing
will not be enough, and the firm will have to go to the
capital markets for financing.
 Examining the relationship between growth and
external financing required is a useful tool in
financial planning.

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 The internal growth rate tells us how much the firm
can grow assets using retained earnings as the only
source of financing.
 Using the information from the Hoffman Co.
◦ ROA = $66 / $500 = .132
◦ b (plowback ratio) = $44 / $66 = .6667

ROA ´ b
Internal Growth Rate =
1 – ROA ´ b
.132 ´.6667
= = .0965
1-.132 ´.6667
= 9.65%

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 The sustainable growth rate tells us how much the firm
can grow by using internally generated funds and
issuing debt to maintain a constant debt ratio.
 Using the Hoffman Co.
◦ ROE = $66 / $250 = .264
◦ b = .667

ROE ´ b
Sustainable Growth Rate =
1 – ROE ´ b
.264 ´.6667
= = .2136
1-.264 ´.6667
= 21.36%

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 Profit margin—operating efficiency
 Dividend policy—choice of how much to pay to
shareholders versus reinvesting in the firm
 Financial leverage—choice of optimal debt ratio
 Total asset turnover—asset use efficiency

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 Financial planning models do not indicate which
financial polices are the best.
 Models are simplifications of reality, and the world
can change in unexpected ways.
 Without some sort of plan, the firm may find itself
adrift in a sea of change without a rudder for
guidance.

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 How do you standardize balance sheets and income
statements?
 Why is standardization useful?
 What are the major categories of financial ratios?
 How do you compute the ratios within each category?
 What are some of the problems associated with
financial statement analysis?

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 What is the purpose of financial planning?
 What are the major decision areas involved in
developing a plan?
 What is the percentage of sales approach?
 What is the internal growth rate?
 What is the sustainable growth rate?
 What are the major determinants of growth?

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