Volume 9, Issue 2, February – 2024 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology

ISSN No:-2456-2165 https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/IJISRT24FEB1490

The Determinants of Low Wheat Productivity in Kenya

1*
Anne Gichangi; 2Zenah Koskei; 3Henry Okwaro; 4Ben Otukho and 5Stephen Ndaiga
1,5
Socio- Economics and Policy Development Program, Food Crop Research Institute (FCRI) Centre, Njoro
2
Wheat Protection Program, Food Crop Research Institute (FCRI) Centre, Njoro
3
Wheat Biotechnology program, Food Crop Research Institute (FCRI) Centre, Njoro
4
Wheat Breeding Program, Food Crop Research Institute (FCRI) Centre, Njoro
*Correspondence: Anne Gichangi1*

Abstract:- Agriculture contributes 24% directly to the increased and wheat production risks eliminated or
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 60% of the export minimized. Additionally, appropriate development
earnings and about 75% of industrial raw materials. Food programmes and policies promoting new technologies
crops subsector contributes about 30% to the Kenyan should target disease and pest management, input and
GDP. Among the cereals in Kenya, wheat is the second output distribution, seed multiplication and diffusion.
most important after maize. Wheat has a substantial
contribution to poverty reduction, food security and Keywords:- Determinants, Low Productivity, Consumption,
creation of employment. Due to the high growth in Imports, Wheat.
population, increased urbanization, and related changing
trends in food consumption patterns, the demand for I. INTRODUCTION
wheat and wheat products is on the increase. Demand for
wheat products is apparent in the preference of Agriculture is basic to combating challenges of creating
confectionery, pasta and breakfast cereals. Wheat wealth, feeding an expanding population, and minimizing
demand in Kenya has been swelling hence production has deterioration of natural resources in Kenya. Generally, the
not been able to certify it leading to importation of huge sector contributes about 26% directly to Kenya’s GDP and
quantities to fill the gap between demand and supply. indirectly about 28% through linkages to service sector and
Increased imports diminish local prices. This becomes a agro-processing industries. The sector supports about 82% of
disincentive leading to decline in wheat production. In the rural population, provides about 76% of total employment
regard to the importance of wheat enterprise in the and accounts for over 60% of exports, (Kenya Climate smart
country, a survey was conducted to determine factors that Agriculture Strategy 2017-2026).
have led to decline in wheat production and there after
give recommendations for future research. Primary data In terms of production and consumption, wheat is second
was collected by use of structured questionnaires to a most important after maize in Kenya. The enterprise
sample size of 344 wheat farmers in selected wheat contributes cross to 21 billion Kenya shillings to the Gross
producing counties of Kenya. Results of the survey reveal Domestic Product (GDP) and offers employment to more than
that factors contributing to low wheat production consists half a million people. Mean area under wheat is about 147,800
of: pests, diseases and Shortage of improved wheat variety Ha and an estimated production of 4.05 million 90Kg bags
seed, droughts, heavy rains, and high cost of farm inputs. (365,600 MT) with an estimated wheat annual consumption of
Through wheat research, the country will increase about 18.4 million 90kg bags (1,658,000 MT) with the
production, reduce the amount of wheat imports hence divergence filled by imports. Wheat consumption per capita
save the country’s foreign exchange. The study was has been increasing by about 4% per year.(MOA, 2021).
undertaken in Narok and Nakuru Counties of Kenya. A Expanding middle class and an increasing preference for
sample size of 344 farmers was involved in the survey. wheat products has caused the demand for wheat products rise
Njoro BWII the most famous variety accounting for (Gichangi et al. (2022).
30.4% of the total wheat varieties cultivated followed by
Kwale (10.41%), Kenya Korongo (10.28%), Eagle10 About 80% of the national wheat production is mainly
(6.17%), and Kenya Kingbird (5.21%). All these (5) practiced by large scale farmers, while 20% is produced by the
varieties collectively account 55.71% of the total varieties small-scale farmers (Gichangi et al. (2022). The main wheat
cultivated by the farmers in the study areas. Some of the producing Counties are: in Nakuru, Narok, Laikipia, Uasin
varieties are more than 20years old. This indicates that Gishu, Nyandarua, Nyeri and Meru Counties. Table 1 depicts
wheat varietal turnover is very low. As a recommendation, Kenya wheat Area, Production and Yields (2014-2023).
to improve wheat production in Kenya, adoption of the
new improved technologies should be accelerated to reduce
the adoption lag period, varietal turnover rates should be

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Volume 9, Issue 2, February – 2024 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165 https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/IJISRT24FEB1490

Table 2: Kenya Wheat Area, Production and Yields Table 3: Counties that Produce Wheat in Kenya (2021).
(2014-2023) County Area(Ha)2019 Production(ton)
Market Area Production Yield Nyeri 2,328. 6,220.
Year (1000 Ha) (1000 Tons) (T/Ha) Elegyo Marakwet 226 612
2014/2015 147 229 1.6 Uasin Gishu 19,140. 34,662.
2015/2016 120 239 2 Laikipia 11,509. 37,318.
2016/2017 153 215 1.4 Marsabit 26 9
2017/2018 131 165 1.3 Meru 11,630. 32,485.
2018/2019 133 337 2.5 Baringo 200 900
2019/2020 139 366 2.6 Nakuru 25,548. 71,652.
2020/2021 132 405 3.1 Narok 64,011. 123,037.
2021/2022 134 245 1.8 Nyamira 72 84
2022/2023 140 275 2 Nyandarua 1,585. 4,961.
2023/2024 150 310 2.1 Kisii 210 47
5-year Average Samburu 1,400. 4,300.
136 326 2.4
2018/19 - 2022/23 Trans-Nzoia 1,265. 3,142.
Percent Change Grand Total 139,307 319,719
11 -5 -14
Year Average (%) Source: Ministry of agriculture, 2021
Source: USDA, 2024
 Wheat Production, Consumption and Importation Trends
in Kenya.
A universal decline in production and an increasing
demand is currently being realized. The broadening disparity
between production and consumption has been cushioned by
the country importing wheat. The inclination in production,
consumption and imports of wheat from 2014 to 2023 is
depicted in Figures 2. It reveals that apparent consumption has
been rising at an average of about 4 percent per annum.

Benefit from new improved varieties can only be realized

if these varieties are rapidly adopted by farmers (Joshi and
Braun,2022). For rapid varietal turnover rates, continuous
breeding of new improved wheat varieties produced by
breeding programs is a prerequisite that eventually improves
productivity as well as addressing the challenge of food in-
security. Nevertheless, producing and releasing improved
wheat varieties does not warrant that they will certainly be
Fig 1: Kenya Wheat Yields 2014/2015-202/2023 adopted by farmers. Research has shown that new varieties
Source: USDA, 2024 high yielding attribute is regarded as the most important trait
by smallholder farmers (Worku et al 2020). According to
II. WHEAT PRODUCING COUNTRIES (González Guzmán et al. 2021), expansion in production and
productivity, easing in biotic and abiotic stresses lead to the
As depicted in Table 2, the major wheat producing adoption of improved varieties. Similarly, some particular
Counties are Narok (64,011 Ha) (Nakuru (25,548 Ha) , varietal attributes such high yield and superior quality can
Laikipia (11,509 Ha), Meru (11,630 Ha) and Uasin Gishu guide to farmer adopting specific varieties, (Madalla et al
(19,140). 2023).

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Volume 9, Issue 2, February – 2024 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165 https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/IJISRT24FEB1490

III. THE STUDY AREA

From five major wheat-producing Counties in Kenya,

two counties (Narok and Nakuru) were selected for this study.
The basis for selection was scale of production (Small/large
scale) acreage under wheat and number of producers and
production volumes.

 Data Collection and Target Groups

Different approaches were used to collect data from
different common interest groups. Data collection approaches
included qualitative and quantitative data collection methods.
Use of different published and unpublished sources, electronic
and print media were used to understand and conceptualize
Fig 2: Wheat Production, Imports and Consumption crop value chain. Focus group discussion (FGD), key
(2014-2023) informant interviews (KII), and observations during field
survey were some of the tools that were adopted in qualitative
 Problem Statement data collection. To gather quantifiable data from wheat
For years, wheat production has been on the decline producers, a structured questionnaire was used.
while consumption has been increasing. The decline in
production has mainly been attributed to climate change, IV. RESULTS
increased input prices, competition from other enterprises and
land sub-division. Change in eating habits among Kenyans has  Varieties of Improved Wheat Varieties Grown in the Study
contributed to the increase in consumption. The expanding gap Area
between production and consumption has contributed to over- Sampled wheat farmers grew various wheat varieties
reliance on imports, eventually depleting he countries foreign (Table 3). In the 2020-2021 production years, the wheat
exchange earnings. The database on varieties released by varieties found in the study area included Mwamba, Njoro
KALRO since 1927 contains more than 100 varieties BW2, Kwale, Eagle10, Duma, Kenya Kingbird, Kenya Heroe,
(Gichangi et al 2022). A lot of investment has been allocated Robin, Kenya Korongo, and Kenya Hawk. The most popular
for wheat research, but there has been little or no improvement variety which accounted for 30.4% of the total wheat varieties
in production. Regardless of the initiatives undertaken by the cultivated by the sampled farmers was Njoro BWII followed
government to stimulate wheat production, supply has not by Kwale (10.41%), K.Korongo (10.28%), Eagle 10 (6.17%),
been able to coup with wheat demand. To establish factors and K.Kingbird (5.21%). All these five varieties accounted for
constraining wheat production in the country a survey was 55.91% of the total varieties cultivated in the study areas.
undertaken. Njoro BWII which is considered as old variety which was
released in the year 2001 is still popular among the famers.

Table 4: Popular Wheat Varieties Grown in the Study Area Across Scale of Production and Counties
Characteristics Njoro BWII Kwale Korongo Eagle 10 K.Kingbird Others Total Varietal
% % % % % % % age(in years)
Scale of Production
Large-holder 20.75 9.82 7.33 1.98 11.7 52.71 5.11 25.9
Medium-holder 24.16 13.71 10.33 2.89 10.2 44.87 12.36 27.84
Small -holder 25.27 11.89 10.71 4.22 6.29 47.83 26.21 29.38
Counties
Narok 46.26 2.28 4.22 15.3 2.32 42.31 33.29 32.82
Nakuru 29.33 25.28 2.33 1.81 7.91 40.31 38.51 25.31
Sub-Counties
Narok South 47.15 6.78 4.11 13.78 7.25 27.21 27.22 31.22
Narok North 9.87 13.22 8.33 4.69 4.82 51.34 30.42 29.11
Rongai 23.27 8.67 16.77 5.32 7.22 50.51 35.77 34.73
Njoro 28.64 11.79 9.30 6.71 3.72 45.31 23.41 29.81
Total 30.4 10.41 10.28 6.17 5.21 43.79 100 30.66
Key: Large- scale (n= 88); Medium -scale (n= 93) ; Small scale (n= 163)
Land- size (Acres): small scale farms<20ha; medium scale farms 20–50ha; large scale farms >50ha

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Volume 9, Issue 2, February – 2024 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165 https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/IJISRT24FEB1490

 Factors Contributing to Low Wheat Productivity During productivity during 2022. A significant proportion of medium
2022 farmers (70.10 %) reported that shortage of improved wheat
The Table 3 depicted that a significant proportion of variety seed was the main factor responsible for low wheat
small farmers (33.40 %), (31.20 %), (44.60 %), (12.20%) and productivity in Kenya. The data also depicted that large
(6.00 %) reported droughts, high cost of inputs, wheat diseases farmers (25.10 %) reported that late sowing was also the cause
(Stem rust), attack of aphids (Russian wheat aphids) and of low wheat productivity.
heavy rains respectively as the causal factors to low wheat

Table 5: Contributing Factors to Low Wheat Productivity During 2022

Factors Farm Size Groups
Small Medium Large All
Droughts 33.40 16.20 8.20 22.30
High cost of farm inputs 31.20 34.40 25.10 27.30
Wheat Diseases (Stem Rust) 44.60 55.30 18.40 42.43
Shortage of improved wheat variety seed 25.00 70.10 35.60 44.70
Pests ( Aphids and quelea birds) 14.30 15.30 17.90 17.33
Heavy rains 14.30 12.30 00.00 5.70
Source: Survey 2022

V. CONCLUSION pest management, input and output distribution, seed

multiplication and diffusion.
Agriculture contributes 24% directly to the Gross
Domestic Product (GDP), 60% of the export earnings and ACKNOWLEDGMENT
about 75% of industrial raw materials. Wheat is the second
most important after maize. Wheat has a substantial The authors would like to thank the wheat farmers who
contribution to poverty reduction, food security and creation gave the required information, technical staff who were
of employment. Due to the high growth in population, involved in data collection (Meshack, Walter and Henry) and
increased urbanization, and related changing trends in food the driver Mr. Wilson. We also extend our gratitude to the
consumption patterns, the demand for wheat and wheat agricultural extension officers from the two counties (Nakuru
products is on the increase. Demand for wheat products is and Narok) for the direct and indirect contribution they gave
apparent in the preference of confectionery, pasta and for the success of the data collection. Finally, we would like to
breakfast cereals. Wheat demand in Kenya has been swelling acknowledge the editor and reviewers of this journal for
hence production has not been able to certify it leading to finding time to make the publication a success.
importation of huge quantities to fill the gap between demand
and supply. Increased imports diminish local prices. This FUNDING
becomes a disincentive leading to decline in wheat production.
In regard to the importance of wheat enterprise in the country. We appreciate support given by Kenya Agricultural and
From survey results it shows that factors contributing to low Livestock Research Organization (KALRO) in terms of
wheat production consists of: pests, diseases and Shortage of financial support, infrastructure and time.
improved wheat variety seed, droughts, heavy rains, and high
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Volume 9, Issue 2, February – 2024 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165 https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/IJISRT24FEB1490

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