Unit-2 History PDF by Vanshika
Unit-2 History PDF by Vanshika
Structure
2.0 Objectives
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Sources of Economic Growth
2.3 Assumptions of the Solow Model
2.4 Steady State Growth Path
2.4.1 Dynamics of the Model
2.4.2 Steady State Level of Capital
2.4.3 Balanced Growth Path
2.5 Golden Rule Level of Capital Accumulation
2.6 Determinants of Long-run Living Standards
2.6.1 Impact of Increase in Saving Ratio
2.6.2 Impact of Population Growth Rate
2.7 Technological Progress in the Solow Model
2.7.1 Balanced Growth Path
2.7.2 Golden Rule Level of Capital
2.8 Let Us Sum Up
2.9 Answers/Hints to Check Your Progress Exercises
2.0 OBJECTIVES
After going through this unit, you will be in a position to
explain economic growth with the help of neoclassical growth model;
outline the implications of the assumptions made in the Solow model;
determine how steady state growth can be achieved in an economy with an
exogenous population growth rate and technological progress;
determine the growth of key variables such as output per worker (means per
unit of labour) and capital per worker on the balanced growth path;
examine the impact of saving rate and population growth on the long run
living standards; and
comment on the golden rule level of capital.
2.1 INTRODUCTION
The limitations of the Harrod-Domar model prompted many economists to think
further. Recall from the previous Unit that the warranted growth rate in the
Dr. Archi Bhatia, Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Public Policy, Central
University of Himachal Pradesh, Dharamshala.
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Economic Growth Harrod-Domar model was given by the ratio of ‘s’ (saving rate) and capital-
output ratio ‘v’. The razor edge problem came up because s and v are constants,
so that their ratio is a constant, and there is no scope for altering this ratio. In real
life, however, economies do not face such razor edge problems and policy
makers do have certain flexibility. In order to make the Harrod-Domar model
more realistic, economists proceeded on two lines. In a major contribution to
economic growth theory, Robert M. Solow developed the neoclassical model of
economic growth in 1957, for which he was awarded Noble Prize in economic
sciences in 1987. Solow has made a huge contribution to our understanding of
the factors that determine the rate of economic growth for different countries.
Solow extended the Harrod-Domar model by adding labour as a factor of
production, and assuming that capital-output ratio is not constant.
The Solow growth model shows how saving, population growth, and
technological progress affect the level of an economy’s output and its growth
over time. It also explains why national income grows, and why some economies
grow faster than others.
In this Unit, we begin with the assumptions of the model. Subsequently we derive
the steady state growth path. We then introduce the golden rule capital-labour
ratio. We also understand how the changes in the savings rate, population and
technological progress affect the output per person and capital per person in the
steady state. We conclude by discussing implications of the Solow Model for the
economies of the world.
where
∆
= rate of output growth
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∆
= rate of productivity growth The Solow Model
∆
= rate of capital input growth
∆
= rate of labour input growth
=𝐹 ,1 ... (2.4)
Thus we can write the production function given at (2.4) as 𝑦 = 𝐹(𝑘, 1), which
can be re-formulated as
𝑦 = 𝑓(𝑘) … (2.5)
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Economic Growth The production function given as equation (2.5) is assumed to satisfy three
conditions, viz., 𝑓(0) = 0, 𝑓 (𝑘) > 0 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑓 " (𝑘) < 0. We interpret these
conditions as follows: First, output is zero when capital per worker is zero.
Second, marginal product of capital per unit of labour is positive. Third, marginal
product of capital per unit of labour increases at a decreasing rate (In other
words, marginal product of capital is positive but it declines as capital per unit of
labour increases). The production function given at (2.5) above is shown in Fig.
2.1. You can observe that the production function has a positive slope but it
becomes flatter as the amount of capital per worker increases, indicating that it
exhibits diminishing returns. When k is low, the average worker has very little
capital to work with, so an extra unit of capital is very useful and produces a lot
of additional output. When k is high, the average worker has a lot of capital
already, so an extra unit of capital increases production only slightly.
MPK
1 unit
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vii) The Solow model assumes that each year people save – a fraction s of The Solow Model
their income and consume a fraction (1–s). The saving rate is fixed. The
consumption function can be expressed as
𝑐 = (1 − 𝑠)𝑦 ....(2.7)
viii) The capital stock depreciates at a constant rate δ every period. Change in
capital stock between one period and the next depends on Investment
which raises the capital stock and depreciation, which wears out the
capital stock.
Change in capital Stock = Investment – Depreciation
𝐾 (̇ 𝑡) = 𝐼 − 𝛿𝐾(𝑡) , 𝐾(̇ 𝑡) = ...(2.8)
The higher the capital stock, the greater is the amount of depreciation.
Check Your Progress 1
1) State the properties of the production function used in the Solow model.
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Output, 𝑓(𝑘)
𝑦, output
per worker
𝑐, consumption
per worker
Investment, 𝑠𝑓(𝑘)
𝑖, investment per
worker
(̇ ) ( ) (̇ )
𝑘 (𝑡̇ ) = − ∗ ...(2.14)
( ) ( ) ( )
(̇ )
̇ from equation 2.8 and
Substitute for 𝐾(𝑡) = 𝑛 from equation (2.6) in
( )
equation (2.14)
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̇ = ( ) ( )
𝑘(𝑡) − ∗𝑛 ...(2.15) The Solow Model
( ) ( )
𝑘(𝑡̇ ) = 𝑖 − 𝛿𝑘 − 𝑛𝑘 ...(2.16)
Substitute 𝑖 from (2.12) into equation (2.16)
𝑘(𝑡̇ ) = 𝑠𝑓 (𝑘 ) − (𝛿 + 𝑛)𝑘 ...(2.17)
Equation (2.17) is the key equation of the Solow model. It states that the rate of
change of the capital stock per unit of labour is the difference between two terms.
The first, 𝑠𝑓(𝑘), is the actual investment per unit of labour: output per unit of
labour 𝑓 (𝑘 ) and the fraction of that output that is invested is 𝑠. The second term,
(𝛿 + 𝑛)𝑘, is break-even investment, the amount of investment that must be done
to keep 𝑘 at its existing level. There are two reasons that some investment is
needed to prevent 𝑘 from falling. First, existing capital is depreciating; this
capital must be replaced to keep the capital stock from falling. This is the 𝛿𝑘
term in equation (2.17). Second the quantity of labour is growing. Since the
quantity of labour is growing at rate n, the capital stock must grow at rate n to
hold 𝑘 steady. This is the 𝑛𝑘 term in equation (2.17). This is the amount of
investment necessary to provide new workers, 𝑛 with capital. The equation shows
that population growth reduces the accumulation of capital per worker much the
way depreciation does. When actual investment per unit of labour exceeds the
investment needed to break-even, k is rising. When actual investment falls short
of the break-even investment, k is falling. And when the two are equal, k is
constant.
2.4.2 Steady State Level of Capital
A steady state is a situation in which the economy’s output per worker, 𝑦,
consumption per worker 𝑐 and capital stock per worker 𝑘 are constant. To explain
how the Solow model works, we first examine the characteristics of a steady state
and then discuss how economy might attain it. In Fig. 2.3, there is a single capital
stock 𝑘 ∗ at which the amount of investment equals the amount of depreciation
and the amount of investment necessary to provide new workers, 𝑛 with capital.
If the economy finds itself at this level of the capital stock, the capital stock will
not change because the two opposing forces acting on it –investment and
(depreciation and population growth) – just balance. That is, at 𝑘 ∗ , 𝑘̇ = 0 , so the
capital stock per worker 𝑘 and output per worker 𝑓(𝑘) are steady over time
(rather than growing or shrinking). We therefore call 𝑘 ∗ the steady state level of
capital.
The definition of an equilibrium is a positive value of 𝑘, denoted by 𝑘 ∗ such that
𝑘̇ = 0. This is called the steady state. There is a corresponding value of output
per worker , denoted by 𝑦 ∗ such that 𝑦̇ = 0. The steady state value of 𝑘 ∗ is solved
from equation (2.17).
0 = 𝑠𝑓(𝑘 ∗ ) − (𝛿 + 𝑛)𝑘 ∗ …(2.18)
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Economic Growth Then 𝑦 ∗ is solved from
𝑦 ∗ = 𝑓(𝑘 ∗ )
The steady state is significant for two reasons. As we have just seen, an economy
at the steady state will stay there. In addition, and just as important, an economy
not at the steady state will go there. That is, regardless of the level of capital with
which the economy begins, it ends up with the steady-state level of capital. In
this sense, the steady state represents the long-run equilibrium of the economy.
Actual Investment,
𝑠𝑓(𝑘)
To see why an economy always ends up at the steady state, suppose that the
economy starts with less than the steady-state level of capital, such as level 𝑘 in
Fig. 2.3. In this case, the level of investment exceeds the break-even investment
(depreciation and population growth). Over time, the capital stock will rise and
will continue to rise, along with output 𝑓(𝑘) until it approaches the steady state
𝑘 ∗ . Similarly, suppose that the economy starts with more than the steady-state
level of capital, such as level 𝑘 . In this case, investment is less than break-even
investment; capital is reducing faster than it is being replaced. The capital stock
will fall, again approaching the steady-state level. Once the capital stock reaches
the steady state, investment equals depreciation and population growth, and there
is no pressure for the capital stock to either increase or decrease.
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Fig. 2.4 summarizes this information in the form of a phase diagram, which The Solow Model
shows 𝑘̇ as a function of 𝑘. If 𝑘 is initially less than 𝑘 ∗ , actual investment
exceeds break-even investment and so 𝑘̇ is positive- that is 𝑘 is rising. If 𝑘
exceeds 𝑘 ∗ , 𝑘̇ is negative- that is 𝑘 is falling. Finally if 𝑘 equals 𝑘 ∗ , 𝑘̇ is zero.
Thus regardless of where 𝑘 starts, it converges to 𝑘 ∗ .
𝑘
𝑘̇ < 0,
0
Capital per worker, 𝑘
𝑘̇ > 0, k 𝑘∗
The phase diagram above shows that the steady-state, which is unique,
is also stable: it will be reached in the long-run, i.e., asymptotically.
When 𝑘 is less than steady state level 𝑘 ∗ , rate of change in capital per worker
is positive, 𝑘̇ > 0 and capital stock per worker 𝑘 increases to reach 𝑘 ∗ .
= − ...(2.20)
= − ...(2.21)
=𝑛 ...(2.22)
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Economic Growth Similarly differentiating 𝑦 with respect to time
= − ...(2.23)
= − ...(2.24)
= − ...(2.25)
In the steady state output and capital stock grows at the rate of population
growth, while output per worker and capital per worker remain constant. Thus
the Solow model implies that, regardless of its starting point, the economy
converges to a balanced growth path- a situation where each variable of the
model grows at the rate exogenously given by the population growth.
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Economic Growth Check Your Progress 2
1) Explain the dynamics of the Solow Model?
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2) Explain how does an economy always ends up at the steady state?
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3) Explain the condition required to attain Golden rule level of capital.
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arrows on the horizontal axis. In the new steady state, output per worker 𝑦, and The Solow Model
consumption per worker 𝑐 will be higher than in the original steady state.
Higher saving rate leads to faster growth in the Solow model, but only
temporarily. An increase in the rate of saving raises growth only until the
economy reaches the new steady state.
If the economy maintains a high saving rate, it will maintain a large capital stock
and a high level of output, but it will not maintain a high growth rate forever. A
higher saving rate is said to have a level effect because only the level of output
per person- and not its growth rate- is influenced by the saving rate in the steady
state.
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2.7 TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS IN SOLOW The Solow Model
MODEL
In the model so far, when the economy reaches its steady state. Output per
worker stops growing. To explain persistent growth, we need to introduce
technological progress into the model. The model can be modified to include
exogenous technological progress, which over time expands society’s production
capabilities. We now write the production function as
𝒀 = 𝑭(𝑲, 𝑳 × 𝑬) ...(2.24)
Where E is a new (and somewhat abstract) variable called the efficiency of
labour. The term (𝑳 × 𝑬) can be interpreted as measuring the effective number of
workers. It takes into account the number of actual workers L and the efficiency
of each worker E. This new production function states that total output Y depends
on the inputs of capital K and effective workers, 𝑳 × 𝑬. We assume that
technological progress causes the efficiency of labour 𝑬 to grow at some constant rate
𝒈, which is exogenously given.
=𝑔 ...(2.25)
̇ = (̇ ) ( ) (̇ ) ( ) (̇ )
𝑘(𝑡) − ∗ − ∗ ...(2.27)
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
(̇ )
̇ from equation 2.8 and
Let us substitute for 𝐾(𝑡) = 𝑛 from equation 2.6 and
( )
(̇ )
= 𝑔 from equation (2.25) in equation (2.27). This gives us
( )
( ) ( ) ( )
𝑘(𝑡̇ ) = − ∗𝑛− ∗𝑔 ...(2.28)
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
𝑘(𝑡̇ ) = 𝑖 − 𝛿𝑘 − 𝑛𝑘 − 𝑔𝑘 ...(2.29)
By substituting 𝑖 = 𝑠𝑓(𝑘) into equation (2.29), we obtain
𝑘(𝑡̇ ) = 𝑠𝑓 (𝑘 ) − (𝛿 + 𝑛 + 𝑔)𝑘 ...(2.30)
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Economic Growth Equation (2.30) shows the evolution of capital per unit of effective worker, k .
̇ equals investment 𝑠𝑓(𝑘) minus the break-even
The change in capital stock, 𝑘(𝑡)
investment (𝛿 + 𝑛 + 𝑔)𝑘. Break-even investment includes three terms: to keep
𝑘 constant, 𝛿𝑘 is needed to replace depreciating capital, 𝑛𝑘 is needed to provide
capital for new workers, and 𝑔𝑘 is needed to provide capital for the new
“effective workers” created by technological progress.
The steady state value of 𝑘 ∗ is solved from equation 2.30 by putting 𝑘(𝑡)̇ = 0.
We drop the time-subscripts, t as output per effective worker and capital per unit
of effective labour are constant in the steady state.
Thus, we obtain
0 = 𝑠𝑓(𝑘 ∗ ) − (𝛿 + 𝑛 + 𝑔)𝑘 ∗ …(2.31)
Then 𝑦 ∗ is solved from
𝑦 ∗ = 𝑓(𝑘 ∗ )
In the steady state, capital per unit of effective labour 𝑘 ∗ is given by
𝑠𝑓(𝑘 ∗ ) = (𝛿 + 𝑛 + 𝑔)𝑘 ∗ …(2.32)
As before, in the steady state, investment equals the break-even investment. As
shown in Fig. 2.8 there is one level of k, denoted by 𝑘 ∗ , at which capital per
effective worker and output per effective worker are constant. As before, this
steady state represents the long-run equilibrium of the economy.
Break-even
Investment, Investment,
Fig. 2.8: Technological Progress and
break-even the Solow Model (𝛿 + 𝑛 + 𝑔)𝑘
investment
Actual Investment,
𝑠𝑓(𝑘)
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2.7.1 Balanced Growth Path The Solow Model
By assumption, we have
𝑌 𝐾
𝑦= ,𝑘 =
𝐸×𝐿 𝐸×𝐿
Additionally, in the steady state, 𝑦̇ = 0 and 𝑘̇ = 0.
Differentiating 𝑘 with respect to time, we obtain
= − − ...(2.33)
× × ×
= − − ...(2.34)
×
= − − ...(2.35)
= − − ...(2.38)
= − − ...(2.39)
From equations (2.36) and (2.40), we now know that in the steady-state, the
growth rates of the aggregate capital stock 𝐾 and aggregate output 𝑌 are each in
equality with the sum of the technology growth rate and population growth rates.
= = 𝑛+𝑔
Alternatively,
− 𝑛 = 𝑔 , and − 𝑛=𝑔 ...(2.41)
The growth rates of the capital stock per labour and of output per labour are
each equal to the technology growth rate. The economy in the long run converges
to the balanced growth path. On the balanced growth path, the growth rate of
output per worker is solely determined by the growth rate of technological
progress.
With the addition of technological progress, our model can finally explain the
sustained increases in standards of living that we observe. That is, we have
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Economic Growth shown that technological progress can lead to sustained growth in output per
worker. By contrast, a high rate of saving leads to a high rate of growth only until
the steady state is reached. Once the economy is in steady state, the rate of
growth of output per worker depends only on the rate of technological progress.
According to the Solow model, only technological progress can explain sustained
growth and persistently rising living standards.
2.7.2 The Golden Rule Level of Capital
The Golden Rule level of capital is now defined as the steady state that
maximizes consumption per effective worker. Following the same arguments that
we have used before, we can show that steady-state consumption per effective
worker is
𝑐 = 𝑓(𝑘 ∗ ) − (𝛿 + 𝑛 + 𝑔)𝑘 ∗ ...(2.42)
Steady state consumption is maximized, if
𝑓 ′ (𝑘 ∗ ) = 𝛿 + 𝑛 + 𝑔 ...(2.43)
𝑓 ′ (𝑘 ∗ ) − 𝛿 = 𝑛 + 𝑔 ...(2.44)
Equation (2.44) implies that, at the Golden Rule level of capital, the net marginal
product of capital, (𝑀𝑃𝐾 − 𝛿), equals the rate of growth of total output (𝑛 + 𝑔).
Table 2.1 The Fundamental Determinants of Long-Run Living Standards
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Check Your Progress 3 The Solow Model
1) Why an increase in saving rate has only level effect on output per worker?
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Economic Growth output per worker. However, both the changes in saving rate and population rate
have level affect output per person but do not affect the steady state growth rate
of output per person. It is only the technological progress which can lead to
sustained growth in output per worker.
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