Activities and duration of a project are given below.

Duration (Week)
Activity Predecessor(s) Optimistic Pessimistic Most likely
(a) (b) (m)
A 6 10 8
B A 4 16 7
C A 2 6 4
D B 1 5 3
E B 3 11 4
F C 4 10 5.5
G D, E 3 9 4.5
H E, F 2 4 3
I G, H 4 6 5

(a) Draw a network diagram and find the critical path and project completion time considering expected
time as duration.
(b) Find the probability to complete the project in 34 weeks/in 27 weeks
(c) Find the assured completion time.
(d) Find the completion time with 95% probability.
(e) If optimistic time prevails in activities A, E and G, most likely time prevails in activity F, and pessimistic
time prevails in activity H then find the critical path and project completion time.

Solution:

Calculation of expected time and variance of each of the activities.

ET = Variance =
Duration (Week) (a+b+4m)/6 (b – a)2/62
Activity Predecessor(s) Optimistic Pessimistic Most likely Expected Variance
(a) (b) (m) Time (V)
A 6 10 8 8 0.45
B A 3 15 6 7 4
C A 2 6 4 4 0.45
D B 1 5 3 3 0.45
E B 3 11 4 5 1.77
F C 4 10 5.5 6 1
G D, E 3 9 4.5 5 1
H E, F 2 4 3 3 0.11
I G, H 4 6 5 5 0.11
a)
LS 17 LC 20

D, et = 3
LS 20 LC 25
ES 15 EC 18
G, et = 5
ES 20 EC 25
LS 8 LC 15 LS 15 LC 20

B, et = 7 E, et = 5
LS 25 LC 30
ES 8 EC 15 ES 15 EC 20
LS 0 LC 8
I, et = 5
A, et = 8 ES 25 EC 30
ES 0 EC 8
LS 22 LC 25

LS 12 LC 16 H, et = 3
LS 16 LC 22 ES 20 EC 23
C, et = 4
ES 8 EC 12 F, et = 6
ES 12 EC 18

Project Completion time/Project duration (PD) = 30 weeks

b) Probability to complete the project in 34 weeks: Consider no of std. dev. is Z

So Z = (T – PD)/σ
Where T = 34 weeks, PD = 30 weeks, σ = SQRT(∑Vcp) = SQRT(0.45 + 4 + 1.77 + 1 +0.11) = 2.7

Z = (34 -30)/2.7 = 1.48

Therefore, probability to complete the project in 34 weeks is 93.06%

Probability to complete the project in 27 weeks: Consider no of std. dev. is Z

So Z = (T – PD)/σ
Where T = 27 weeks, PD = 30 weeks, σ = SQRT(∑Vcp) = SQRT(0.45 + 4 + 1.77 + 1 +0.11) = 2.7

Z = (27 -30)/2.7 = -1.11

Therefore, probability to complete the project in 27 weeks is 13.35%

c) Assured completion time means completion time with 100% probability

Then Z = 3.9, T =?
So Z = (T – PD)/σ
Where T = ?, PD = 30 weeks, σ = SQRT(∑Vcp) = SQRT(0.45 + 4 + 1.77 + 1 +0.11) = 2.7

3.9 = (T -30)/2.7
T = 30 + 3.9 x 2.7 = 40.53 weeks

Assured completion time is 40.53 weeks

Then Z = 1.75, T =?
So Z = (T – PD)/σ
Where T = ?, PD = 30 weeks, σ = SQRT(∑Vcp) = SQRT(0.45 + 4 + 1.77 + 1 +0.11) = 2.7

1.75 = (T -30)/2.7
T = 30 + 1.75 x 2.7 = 34.7 weeks

Completion time with 95% probability is 34.7 weeks

e)

LS 14 LC 17

D, et = 3
LS 17 LC 20
ES 13 EC 16
G, et = 3
ES 16 EC 19
LS 6 LC 13 LS 13 LC 16

B, et = 7 E, et = 3
LS 20 LC 25
ES 6 EC 13 ES 13 EC 16
LS 0 LC 6
I, et = 5
A, et = 6 ES 20 EC 25
ES 0 EC 6
LS 16 LC 20

LS 6.5 LC 10.5 H, et = 4
LS 10.5 LC 16 ES 16 EC 20
C, et = 4
ES 6 EC 10 F, et = 5.5
ES 10 EC 15.5

Project Completion time/Project duration (PD) = 25 weeks