Objective of Competitor Analysis

KSOM

Answer to the following questions

Who should we pick a fight with, and with what sequential moves? What is the meaning of that competitors strategic move and how seriously should we take it? What areas should we avoid because the competitors response will be emotional or desperate?
@Ashok Sar MBA-II, SFM-2010 1

Elements of Competitor Analysis

KSOM
How do I frame the competitive decision problem? Game How do I use this framing to predict Theory competitive outcomes? What behavioural biases might affect my Behavioural rivals decisions? Theory What cognitive shortcuts might my rival be using? Analysis Framework What information do I need to fill in the blanks? Strategy What information will reveal payoffs and biases? Goals Capabilities Assumptions Data Source Public
@Ashok Sar

Private

Signals

Where do I find the details? What source contain the data I need?

MBA-II, SFM-2010

Game Theory
KSOM
Special branch of mathematics which has been developed for studying decision-making in complex circumstances. Tries to predict outcomes based on interactive models in which the decisions of each party affect the decisions of the other parties. "Game" here is: a move by one player will result in moves by others. The idea historically dates back to the Talmud and Sun Tzu's writings. John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern - Theory of Games and Economic Behavior in 1944. Early 1950s, *John Nash* generalized their results and provided the basis of the modern field of Game Theory. First academic magazine devoted to the field by Oskar Morgenstern in 1972.
@Ashok Sar 3 MBA-II, SFM-2010

Game Theory
KSOM Conventional economics Takes the structure of markets as fixed. People are thought of as simple stimulus-response machines. Sellers and buyers assume that products and prices are fixed, and they optimize production and consumption accordingly. Conventional economics has its place in describing the operation of established, mature markets, But it doesnt capture peoples creativity in finding new ways of interacting with one another.
@Ashok Sar MBA-II, SFM-2010 4

 Game Theory
KSOM
But ... Game theory is a different way of looking at the world. In game theory, nothing is fixed. The economy is dynamic and evolving. The players create new markets and take on multiple roles. They innovate . No one takes products or prices as given. If this sounds like the free-form and rapidly transforming marketplace , thats why game theory may be the kernel of a new economics for the new economy.

@Ashok Sar

MBA-II, SFM-2010

The PARTS of the Business Game

KSOM
Players: customers, suppliers, rivals, allies; Change any, including yourself. Added Values: what each player adds to the game (taking the player out would subtract their added value). Ways to raise yours, or lower theirs. Rules: give structure to the game; in business no universal set of rules from law, custom, practicality, or contracts Can revise exiting rules, or devise new ones Tactics: moves to shape the way: players perceive the game, and hence how they play. Tactics to reduce misperception, or to create or maintain misperception. Scope: the bounds of the game: expand or shrink.
@Ashok Sar MBA-II, SFM-2010 6

KSOM

Framing the Decision South Korean Entry Game

VLM

Enter

Dont Enter

Enter
WCC Dont Enter

@Ashok Sar

MBA-II, SFM-2010

South Korean Entry Game

KSOM Both WCC & VLM with identical cost structure
VLM Enter Dont Enter

Fig. in 000 $

Enter WCC

250, 250

3000,0

Dont Enter

0, 3000

0,0

@Ashok Sar

MBA-II, SFM-2010

10

Dominant Strategy
KSOM

Enter the market irrespective of the action the other player chooses Equilibrium (Nash Equilibrium) Outcomes in which neither player has any incentive to unilaterally deviate from his or her chosen action

@Ashok Sar

MBA-II, SFM-2010

11

Entry Different Cost Scenarios

KSOMLow cost Scenario
VLM unit cost = $20 Price under dual entry = $40 VLM Dont Enter Enter
Enter WCC

High cost Scenario

VLM unit cost = $40 Price under dual entry = $50 VLM Dont Enter Enter
Enter

(500), 1000

3000, 0
WCC

1000, (500)

3000, 0

Dont Enter

0, 5000

0,0

Dont Enter

0, 1000

0,0

Dominant Strategy WCC NO VLM - Enter VLM Entering & WCC not entering
@Ashok Sar MBA-II, SFM-2010

Equilibrium

Dominant Strategy WCC Enter VLM - NO

WCC Entering & VLM not entering

12

France Entry Game

KSOM
Fig. in 000 $ Fight Robinet Accommodate

E
Enter WCC Dont Enter (500), 1500 2000,8000

E
0, 16250 0,16250

Equilibrium (E)
@Ashok Sar MBA-II, SFM-2010 13

KSOM

Game Tree for France Entry Sequential Move Game

Fight (500), 1500

Robinet Enter WCC Dont Enter

Accommodate 0, 16250

2000,8000

@Ashok Sar

MBA-II, SFM-2010

14

France Entry Decision

KSOM Look Forward & Reason Backward

A decision by Robinet to fight after WCC was in market would be a bitter pill to swallow But once market entry has been made, it is actually very difficult to commit to fight Therefore, the probability that Robinet will accommodate after WCCs entry is high Thus it will be optimal for the firm to enter the France market, expecting the enter/ accommodate equilibrium outcome to prevail
@Ashok Sar MBA-II, SFM-2010 15

KSOM

Deviation from Optimal Decision-Making Behavioural Theory

Bounded rationality or information processing limitation

WCC and/ or its potential rival might not have the necessary information, time, willingness, or ability to conduct a detailed and precise analysis, instead, use heuristics or rule of thumb

The above results in Representativeness Bias

Competitor analysis of VLM and Robinet should entail a detailed review of each companys history in similar competitive situations
@Ashok Sar MBA-II, SFM-2010 16

KSOM

...Deviation from Optimal Decision-Making Behavioural Theory

Managerial tendency towards overconfidence

Possible bias in VLM, like ability to lower cost and penetrate South Korean market.

Confirmation Bias
Robinet succumbing to initial desire to fight WCC entry, with some evidence of success in the past

Endowment effect
Robinet which was faced with losing market share in France, might behave more aggressively than VLM
@Ashok Sar MBA-II, SFM-2010 17

KSOM Justify past actions

...Deviation from Optimal Decision-Making Behavioural Theory

If Robinet had recently used investment in marketing, capacity or distribution to gain market share, it would make still more investment there to fight WCCs entry

Non-rational escalation of commitment

Any price competition with either VLM or Robinet could escalate to a point where neither firm is making profit

In competitor decision making, firms often display cognitive frailties such as antagonism and emotions that are associated with individual behaviour

@Ashok Sar

MBA-II, SFM-2010

18

What drives The Competitor

What the Competitor Is doing and can do

KSOM of management At all levels

And in multiple dimensions

FUTURE GOALS

CURRENT STRATEGY
How the business is Currently competing

Competitor Response Profile

Is the competitor satisfied With the current position? What likely move or strategy shift Will the competitor make What will provoke the greatest and Most effective retaliation by the competitor

Assumptions
Held about itself And industry
@Ashok Sar MBA-II, SFM-2010

Capabilities
Both strengths & weaknesses
19

Which Competitors?
KSOM

Firms not in the industry, who could overcome entry barriers, particularly cheaply Firms for whom there is obvious synergy from being in the industry Firms for whom competing in the industry is an obvious extension of the corporate strategy. Customers or suppliers who may integrate backward or forward.

@Ashok Sar

MBA-II, SFM-2010

20

KSOM

Future Goals Competitors Goals & Strategic Positioning

Look for position, not threatening competitors Defend through distinctive competence WCC-VLM
WCC discovered that VLMs parent corporation held aspiration to bring a number of its businesses into the South Korean market VLM it self perceived the South Korean entry as a part of a longer effort to expand throughout Southeast Asia
@Ashok Sar MBA-II, SFM-2010 25

KSOM

Assumptions Can Identify biases or Blind Spot

Believe in relative position cost, quality, technology, etc. Historical/ emotional identification with product Cultural, regional, national differences Organizational values or Canons Believe about future demand Believe about goals & capabilities of competitor Believe in Industry Conventional wisdom Assumptions reflected in current strategy Robinet was over confident in its customers loyalty, so Larsens believe that WCC entry less of a threat and Robinet is less likely to respond aggressively
@Ashok Sar MBA-II, SFM-2010 26

Current Strategy
KSOM

Key operating policies in each functional area. VLM Cost reduction, influencing WCCs assessment of its relative cost position upon entry in the South Korean market

@Ashok Sar

MBA-II, SFM-2010

27

Capabilities
KSOM
Core capabilities Ability to grow Quick response capability Ability to adapt to change Staying power WCC

Robinet - relatively weak marketing and selling capabilities; cost position higher than WCC Therefore, aggressive response to entry would be particularly unattractive
@Ashok Sar MBA-II, SFM-2010 28

KSOM

Data Sources Competitor Intelligence System

Public Private Signals

@Ashok Sar

MBA-II, SFM-2010

29

Next Class
KSOM

Creating Competitive Advantage Reading: Creating Competitive Advantage

@Ashok Sar

30

MBA-II, SFM-2010