HYPOTHESES

TESTING
Dr. Ndwiga
OVERVIEW
Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Test Statistic
P-Value
Significance Level
One-Sample z Test
Power and Sample Size
Terms
 Population  all possible values
 Sample  a portion of the population
 Statistical inference  generalizing from a
sample to a population with calculated degree
of certainty
 Two forms of statistical inference
 Hypothesis testing
 Estimation
 Parameter  a characteristic of population, e.g.,
population mean µ
 Statistic  calculated from data in the sample, e.g.,
sample mean ( x )
Distinctions Between
Parameters and Statistics
Parameters Statistics

Source Population Sample

Notation Greek (e.g., μ) Roman (e.g., xbar)

Vary No Yes

Calculated No Yes
Sampling Distributions of a Mean

The sampling distributions of a mean (SDM)

describes the behavior of a sampling mean

x ~ N  , SEx 

where SEx 
n
Hypothesis Testing
 Is also called significance testing
 Tests a claim about a parameter using evidence (data in a sample
 The technique is introduced by considering a one-sample z test
 The procedure is broken into four steps
 Each element of the procedure must be understood
Hypothesis Testing Steps
A. Null and alternative hypotheses
B. Test statistic
C. P-value and interpretation
D. Significance level (optional)
§9.1 Null and Alternative Hypotheses

 Convert the research question to null and alternative hypotheses

 The null hypothesis (H0) is a claim of “no difference in the population”
 The alternative hypothesis (Ha) claims “H0 is false”
 Collect data and seek evidence against H0 as a way of bolstering Ha
(deduction)
Illustrative Example: “Body
Weight”
 The problem: In the 1970s, 20–29 year old men in the U.S. had a mean μ
body weight of 170 pounds. Standard deviation σ was 40 pounds. We test
whether mean body weight in the population now differs.

 Null hypothesis H0: μ = 170 (“no difference”)

 The alternative hypothesis can be either Ha: μ > 170 (one-sided test) or
Ha: μ ≠ 170 (two-sided test)
Test Statistic
This is an example of a one-sample test of a
mean when σ is known. Use this statistic to
test the problem:
x  0
z stat 
SEx
where 0  population mean assuming H 0 is true

and SEx 
n
Illustrative Example: z statistic
 For the illustrative example, μ0 = 170
 We know σ = 40
 Take an SRS of n = 64. Therefore

 If we found a sample mean of 173, then

 40
SEx   5
n 64

x  0 173  170
zstat    0.60
SEx 5
Illustrative Example: z statistic
If we found a sample mean of 185, then

x  0 185  170
zstat    3.00
SEx 5
Reasoning Behind µzstat

x ~ N 170,5
Sampling distribution of xbar
under H0: µ = 170 for n = 64 
P-value
 The P-value answer the question: What is the
probability of the observed test statistic or one
more extreme when H0 is true?
 This corresponds to the AUC in the tail of the
Standard Normal distribution beyond the zstat.
 Convert z statistics to P-value :
For Ha: μ > μ0  P = Pr(Z > zstat) = right-tail beyond zstat
For Ha: μ < μ0  P = Pr(Z < zstat) = left tail beyond zstat
For Ha: μ μ0  P = 2 × one-tailed P-value
 Use Table B or software to find these
probabilities (next two slides).
One-sided P-value for zstat of 0.6
One-sided P-value for zstat of 3.0
Two-Sided P-Value
 One-sided Ha  AUC in tail
beyond zstat
 Two-sided Ha  consider
potential deviations in both
directions  double the one-
sided P-value

Examples: If one-sided P
= 0.0010, then two-sided
P = 2 × 0.0010 = 0.0020.
If one-sided P = 0.2743,
then two-sided P = 2 ×
0.2743 = 0.5486.
Interpretation
 P-value answer the question: What is the probability of the observed test
statistic … when H0 is true?
 Thus, smaller and smaller P-values provide stronger and stronger evidence
against H0
 Small P-value  strong evidence
 Interpretation

Conventions*
P > 0.10  non-significant evidence against H0
0.05 < P  0.10  marginally significant evidence
0.01 < P  0.05  significant evidence against H0
P  0.01  highly significant evidence against H0

Examples
P =.27  non-significant evidence against H0
P =.01  highly significant evidence against H0

* It is unwise to draw firm borders for “significance”

α-Level (Used in some
situations)

 Let α ≡ probability of erroneously

rejecting H0
 Set α threshold (e.g., let α = .10, .05, or
whatever)
 Reject H0 when P ≤ α
 Retain H0 when P > α
 Example: Set α = .10. Find P = 0.27 
retain H0
 Example: Set α = .01. Find P = .001 
reject H0
One-Sample z Test
A. Hypothesis statements
H0: µ = µ0 vs.
Ha: µ ≠ µ0 (two-sided) or
Ha: µ < µ0 (left-sided) or
Ha: µ > µ0 (right-sided)
B. Test statistic

C. P-value: convert zstat to P value

D. Significance statement (usually not necessary)

x  0 
z stat  whereSEx 
SEx n
Conditions for z test
σ known (not from data)
 Population approximately Normal or
large sample (central limit theorem)
 SRS (or facsimile)
 Data valid
The Lake Wobegon Example
“where all the children are above
average”

 Let X represent Weschler Adult Intelligence

scores (WAIS)
 Typically, X ~ N(100, 15)
 Take SRS of n = 9 from Lake Wobegon
population
 Data  {116, 128, 125, 119, 89, 99, 105,
116, 118}
 Calculate: x-bar = 112.8
 Does sample mean provide strong evidence
that population mean μ > 100?
 Example: “Lake Wobegon”
A. Hypotheses:
H0: µ = 100 versus
Ha: µ > 100 (one-sided)
Ha: µ ≠ 100 (two-sided)
B. Test statistic:

 15
SEx   5
n 9
x   0 112.8  100
zstat    2.56
SEx 5
C. P-value: P = Pr(Z ≥ 2.56) = 0.0052

P =.0052  it is unlikely the sample came from this

null distribution  strong evidence against H0
Two-Sided P-value: Lake Wobegon
 Ha: µ ≠100
 Considers random deviations “up” and
“down” from μ0 tails above and below
±zstat
 Thus, two-sided P
= 2 × 0.0052
= 0.0104
 Power and Sample Size
Two types of decision errors:
Type I error = erroneous rejection of true H0
Type II error = erroneous retention of false H0

Truth
Decision H0 true H0 false
Retain H0 Correct retention Type II error
Reject H0 Type I error Correct rejection

α ≡ probability of a Type I error

β ≡ Probability of a Type II error
 Power
 β ≡ probability of a Type II error

β = Pr(retain H0 | H0 false)
(the “|” is read as “given”)

 1–β “Power” ≡ probability of avoiding a Type II error

1– β = Pr(reject H0 | H0 false)
 Power of a z test
 |    | n 
1      z1  0 a 


2  
where
 Φ(z) represent the cumulative probability of Standard Normal Z
 μ0 represent the population mean under the null hypothesis
 μa represents the population mean under the alternative hypothesis
Calculating Power: Example
A study of n = 16 retains H0: μ = 170 at α = 0.05
(two-sided); σ is 40. What was the power of test’s
conditions to identify a population mean of 190?

 |    | n 
1      z1   0 a 
  
 
2

 | 170  190 | 16 
   1.96  
 40 
 
 0.04
 0.5160
Reasoning Behind Power

 Competing sampling distributions

Top curve (next page) assumes H0 is true
Bottom curve assumes Ha is true
α is set to 0.05 (two-sided)

 We will reject H0 when a sample

mean exceeds 189.6 (right tail, top
curve)
 The probability of getting a value
greater than 189.6 on the bottom
curve is 0.5160, corresponding to the
power of the test
 Sample Size Requirements
Sample size for one-sample z test:

n
2

 z1  z1 
2

2


2

where
1 – β ≡ desired power
α ≡ desired significance level (two-sided)
σ ≡ population standard deviation
Δ = μ0 – μa ≡ the difference worth detecting
Example: Sample Size
Requirement
How large a sample is needed for a one-sample z
test with 90% power and α = 0.05 (two-tailed)
when σ = 40? Let H0: μ = 170 and Ha: μ = 190
(thus, Δ = μ0 − μa = 170 – 190 = −20)

n
2

 z1  z1 
2

2


40 (1.28  1.96)
2 2
 41.99

2
 20 2

Round up to 42 to ensure adequate power.

Illustration: conditions
for 90% power.