Chapter 3 HT
Chapter 3 HT
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
Introduction
In Chapter two, Estimation, we used the information obtained in a simple
random sample to construct a confidence interval estimate of the unknown value
of a population parameter. In this chapter, hypothesis testing, we start with an
assumed value of a population parameter: then we shall use sample evidence to
decide wither the assumed value is unreasonable and should be rejected or
whether it should be accepted.
The assumptions we make about the values of population parameters are called
hypotheses. Sample evidence is used to test the reasonableness of hypotheses;
hence, the statistical inferences made in this chapter are referred to as hypothesis
testing. A procedure based on sample evidence and probability theory to
determine whether the hypothesis is a reasonable statement is called hypothesis
testing.
In hypotheses testing we begin by making a tentative assumption about a
population parameter. This tentative assumption is called the null hypothesis,
and is denoted by Ho - it is the assumption we wish to test. We then define
another hypothesis, called the alternative hypothesis, which is the opposite of
what is stated in the null hypothesis. This alternative hypothesis specifies all
possible values of the population parameter that are not specified in the null
hypothesis, and in denoted by Ha. The hypothesis testing procedure involves
using data from a sample to test the two competing statements indicated by Ho
and Ha. Ho and Ha are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
In the process of hypothesis testing, the null hypothesis is initially assumed to be
true. The data are gathered and examined to determine whether the evidence is
strong enough away from the null hypothesis to reject it when the researcher in
testing an industry standard or a widely accepted values, the standard or
accepted value is assumed to be true in the null hypothesis. Null in this sense
means that nothing is new, or there in no new value or standard. The burden is
then placed on the researcher to demonstrate through gathered data that the null
hypothesis is false.
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The situation encountered in hypothesis testing is similar to the one encountered
in a criminal trial. In a criminal trial the assumption is that the defendant is
innocent. Thus, the null hypothesis is one of innocence.
The opposite of the null hypothesis is the alternative hypothesis that the
defendant is guilty. Thus, the hypothesis far a criminal trial would be written
Ho: The defendant is innocent
Ha: The defendant is guilty
To test these competing statements, or hypotheses, a trial is held. The testimony
and evidence obtained during the trial provide the sample information. If the
sample information is not inconsistent with the assumption of innocence, the null
hypothesis that the defendant is innocent can not be rejected. However, if the
sample information is inconsistent with the assumption of innocence, the null
hypothesis will be rejected. In this case, action will be taken based upon the
alternative hypothesis that the defendant is guilty.
Example
1. The manager of a hotel has stated that the mean guest bill for a weekend is
Birr 400 or less. A member of the hotel’s accounting staff has noticed that the
total charges for guest bills have been increasing in recent months. The
accountant will use a sample of weekend guest bills to test the manager’s claim.
Required: State the null and alternative hypotheses
Solution:
Ho: μ Birr 400
Ha: Birr 400
2. Production workers at XY Company have been trained in their jobs by
using two different training programs. The company training director would
like to know whether there is a difference in mean productivity for workers
trained in the two programs.
Required: Develop the null and alternative hypotheses.
Solution
Ho: 1 = 2 or 1 - 2 = 0
Ha: 1 2 1 - 2 0
3. The manager at a drugstore claims that the company’s employees are
honest. However, there have been many shortages from the cash register lately.
Required: Specify the null and alternative hypothesis
Solution:
Ho: Employees are honest
Ha: Employees are dishonest
“In many situations, the choice of Ho and Ha is not obvious; in such cases,
judgment on the part of the user is needed to select the proper farm of Ho and
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Ha. However, the equality part of the expression (either =, or ) always appears
in the null hypothesis.
Type I and Type II Errors
There are four possible outcomes of any hypothesis test, two of which are correct
and two of which are incorrect. The incorrect ones are called type I and Type II
errors.
Type I Error
In hypothesis testing sample evidence is used to test the null hypothesis Ho.
Occasionally the sample data gathered in research process lead to a decision to
reject a null hypothesis when actually it is true. A type I error is committed
when a true null hypothesis is rejected. In short, rejecting a true Ho is called
Type I error. The possibility of committing a Type I error is represented by
Alpha (), or the level of significance. Alpha is some times referred to as the
amount of risk taken in an experiment. Alpha represents the proportion of the
area of the curve occupied by the rejection region. The most commonly used
values of are 0.001, 0.01, 0.05 and 0.10. The larger the area of the rejection
region, the greater is the risk of committing Type I error.
Type II Error
A Type II error is committed by failing to reject a false null hypothesis. That is to
say that, accepting a null hypothesis when it is false is called a Type II error. The
probability of committing a Type II error is represented by beta ().
Alpha () is determined before the experiment, however, Beta () is computed
using alpha, the hypothesized parameter, and various theoretical alternatives to
the null hypothesis.
(Null Hypothesis)
State of Nature
Decision Ho True Ho False
Accept Ho Correct Decision Type II Error
Reject Ho Type I Error Correct Decision
There is a tradeoff between alpha and beta (Type I and Type II errors). The
probability of making one type of error can be reduced only if we are willing to
increase the probability of making the other type of error. However, this does
not mean that 1; rather it means that the smaller is the larger will be ,
and the larger in the smaller will be.
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These are three possible null hypotheses along with their corresponding
alternative hypotheses.
Leads to two – tailed test leads to a right – tailed test Leads to a left tests
Aright – tailed test will reject the null hypothesis if the sample
statistic is significantly higher than the hypothesized population parameter.
A left – tailed test will reject the null hypothesis if the sample
statistic is significantly lower than the hypothesized population parameter.
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2. Select the test statistic that will be used to decide whether or not to reject
the null hypothesis
E.g. Z – distribution, t – distribution, F- dist, x2 – distribution
3. Select the level of significance to determine the critical values and develop
the rejection rule that indicates the values of the test statistic that will lead to
the rejection of Ho.
E.g. = 0.05 Z025 = 1.96 Reject Ho if /Sample Z/ 1.96
4. Collect the sample data, and compute the value the test statistic. A test
statistic is a random variable whose value is used to determine whether we
reject the null hypothesis.
E.g. Sample Z=2.0
5. Compare the value of the test statistic to the critical value(s) and make the
decision (either reject Ho or accept HO /do not reject).
Solution
1. Ho: = 35,000 miles 2. Z – distribution, two tailed test
Ha: ≠ 35,000 miles
3. = 0.05 4. = 33,000 miles
/2 = 0.025 = 3,000 miles
Z0.025 = ± 1.96 n = 16 tires
Reject Ho if /Sample Z/ > 1.96 Sample Z =?
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5. Reject Ho because /-2.67/ > 1.96
2. A Teachers’ union is on strike for higher wages. The union claims that the
mean salary for teachers is at most Birr 8,400 per year. The legislator does not
want to reject the union’s claim, however, unless the evidence is very strong
against if. Assume that salaries follow a normal distribution and the population
standard deviation is known to be Birr 3000. A random sample of 64 teachers is
obtained, and the sample mean is Birr, 9,400. Test if the state legislator accepts
the unions’ claim or not at 1% significance level.
Solution:
1. Ho: ≤ Birr 8,400 2. Z – distribution, Right – tailed test
Ha: Birr 8,400
3. = 0.01
Z = Z0.01 = 2.33
Reject Ho if sample Z + 2.33
4. n = 64
= Birr 9,400
= Birr 3,000
Sample Z =?
3. A fertilizer company claims that the use of its product will result in a yield
of at least 35 quintals of wheat per hectare, on average, Application at the
fertilizer to a randomly selected 36 sample hectares resulted in a yield of
34quintals per hectare. Assume the population standard deviation is 5 quintals
and yields per hectare are normally distributed. Test the company’s claim at 1%
level of significance.
Solution
1. Ho: ≥ 35 quintals
Ha: 35 quintals
2. Z – distribution, left – tailed test
3. = 0.01
Z= Z0.01 = 2.33
Reject Ho if sample Z -2.33
4. = 34 quintals
n = 36
= 5 quintals
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Sample Z =?
4. A survey of college graduates showed that the average yearly cash income
for these graduates in at least Birr 12,000. In Addis where you live this average
does not seem possible, so you decide to test this claim. You randomly select 48
graduates who are marking. The sample average income for these working
graduates is Birr 11,400 with a standard deviation of Birr 2,280. Is there enough
evidence from this sample data to reject the national claim for your area as being
too high? Use = 0.10.
Solution
1. Ho : Birr 12,000
Ha : Birr 12,000
2. Z – distribution, Left tailed test
3. = 0.1
Z = Z0.1 = -1.28
Reject Ho if sample Z < -1.28
4. = Birr 11,400
S = Birr 2,280
n = 48
Sample Z =?
= -1.82
5. Reject Ho because –1.82 < -1.28
Example:
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1. A contractor assumes that construction workers are idle for 75 minutes or
less per day. A random sample of 25 construction workers was taken and the
mean idle time was found to be 84 minutes per day with a sample standard
deviation of 20 minutes. Assume that the population is approximately normally
distributed, use a 5% level of significance to test the contractor’s assumption.
Solution
1. Ho: ≤ 75 minutes
Ha: 75 minutes
2. t – distribution, Right – tailed test
3. = 0.05
n = 25
= n – 1 = 25 – 1 = 24
t, = t0.05,24 = 1.711
Reject Ho if sample t 1.711
4. n = 25
= 84 minutes
S = 20 minutes
Sample t =?
5. Reject Ho; because + 2.25 1.711. Workers are idle for more than 75
minutes per day.
2. A director of a secretarial school claims that its graduates can type at least
50 words per minute on average. Suppose you want to hire some of these
graduates if the director’s claim is true; and you test the typing speed of 18 of the
graduates and obtain a mean of 40 wards per minute with a sample variance of
720. Assuming the typing speed for the graduates of the secretarial school is
normally distributed, test the director’s claim and decide whether to hire the
graduates or not, using a 5% level of significance.
Solution
1. Ho: 50 words
Ha: 50 words
2. t – distribution, Left – tailed test
3. = 0.05
n = 18
=n–1
= 18 – 1 = 17
t, = t0.05, 17 = 1.74
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Reject Ho if sample t -1.74
4. = 40 words
n = 18
s2 = 720
Sample t =?
A proportion is a value between 0 and 1 that expresses the part of the whole that
possesses a given characteristic.
The formula (methods) for proportions based on the central limit theorem make
possible the testing of hypotheses about the population proportion in a manner
similar to that of the formula used to test sample means. Similar to that of
hypothesis testing about a population mean, hypothesis testing about a
population proportion has three terms.
The first form is a two – tailed test, where as the second and third forms are one –
tailed tests. The specific form used depends up on the application of interest.
The central Limit Theorem applied to the sample proportions states that values
when np and nq are greater than or equal to 5. If np and nq are greater than or
equal to 5, a Z - test is used to test hypothesis about P.
Example:
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1. A magazine claims that 25% of its readers are college students. A random
sample of 200 readers is taken. It is found that 42 of these readers are college
students. Use a 10% level of significance and test the magazine’s claim.
Solution
1. Ho: P = 0.25
Ha: P 0.25
2. Z – distribution; two tailed test
3. = 0.1 /2 = 0.05
Z/2 = Z0.05 = 1.64
Reject Ho if /sample Z/ 1.64
4. n = 200
x = 42
= 0.21
Sample Z =?
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3. A survey of the morning beverage market has shown that the primary
breakfast beverage for 60% of Ethiopian town and city dwellers is tea. Ethiopian
coffee and Tea Authority believes that the figure is higher for Addis. To test this
idea, one of the employees of Ethiopian coffee and Tea Authority contacts a
random sample of 500 residents in Addis and asks which primary beverage they
consumed for breakfast that day. Suppose 325 replied that tea was the primary
beverage. Using a 0.01 level of significance, test the idea that the tea figure is
higher for Addis.
Solution
1. Ho: P 0.60
Ha: P 0.60
2. Z – distribution, – Right tailed test
3. = 0.01
Z0.01 = 2.33
Reject Ho if sample Z 2.33
4. n = 500
X = 325
P = 0.45
Sample Z =?
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The first form leads to a two-tailed test, while the later two lead to a one-tailed
test.
Based on the central limit theorem, the mean of the sampling distribution sample
means in the difference between two population means; i.e., = 1-2;
For large sample sizes the sampling distribution of the difference between two
sample means is normally distributed with a Z – test statistic.
In most of the hypothesis tests about two means, the hypothesized difference is
zero.
Example:
1. Is there any difference between the average salary of a legal secretary and
a medical secretary? In an effort to answer that question a researcher takes a
random sample of 33 legal secretaries across a region, resulting in a sample
average annual salary of Birr 20,000 with a standard deviation of Birr 1,550. The
researcher then takes a random sample of 35 medical secretaries a class the
region, which yields an average annual salary of Birr 18,500 with a standard
deviation of Birr 2,100. Use =0.01 to test this question
Solution
1. Ho: 1-2 = 0
Ha: 1-2 0
2. Z – distribution , two tailed test
3. = 0.01, /2 = 0.005
Z/ = Z0.005 = 2.57
Reject Ho if /sample Z/ 2.57
4. Legal Secretary Medical Secretary
= Birr 20,000 = Birr 18,500
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n1 = 33 n2 = 35
S1 = Birr 1,550 S2 = Birr 2,100
Sample Z =?
2. A firm is studying the delivery times for two raw material suppliers. The
firm in basically satisfied with supplier A and is prepared to stay with this
supplier provided that the mean delivery time is the same or less than that of
supplier B. However if a firm finds that the mean delivery time from supplier B
is less than that of supplier A, it will begin making raw material purchases from
supplier B.
a. What are the null and alternative hypotheses for this situation?
b. Assume that independent samples show the following delivery time x is
for the two suppliers.
Supplier A Supplier B
n1 = 50 n2 = 30
= 14 days = 12.5 days
S1 = 3 days S2 = 2 days
Using = 0.05, what is your conclusion for the hypotheses from part (a)? What
action do you recommend in terms of supplier selection?
Solution
1. Ho: 1-2 0
Ha: 1-2 0
2. Z – distribution , Right - tailed test
3. = 0.05
Z = Z0.05 = 1.64
Reject Ho if sample Z 1.64
4. Supplier A Supplier B
n1 = 50 n2 = 30
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= 14 days = 12.5 days
S1 = 3 days S2 = 2 days
Sample Z =?
This shows that the mean delivery time for supplier A is greater than supplier B.
So the firm should shift to supplier B.
Test the hypothesis with = 0.025. Does wage discrimination appear to exist in
this case?
Solution
1. Ho: 1-2 0
Ha: 1-2 0
2. Z – distribution , Right - tailed test
3. = 0.025
Z = Z0.025 = 1.96
Reject Ho if sample Z 1.96
4. Male employees Female employees
n1 = 100 n2 = 100
= Birr 20,600 = Birr 19,700
S1 = Birr 3,000 S2 = Birr 2,500
Sample Z =?
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Wage discrimination appears to exist
t – Distribution: used when population normal 1, and 2 unknown, and n1,
and/or n2 30. The unknown population standard deviations are approximated
by sample standard deviations as:
; where df = n1 + n2 - 2
This approximation is based on the assumption that the two population standard
deviations are equal.
Or
; Where
If 1 and 2 are not equal, the sample standard error of the difference between
two means and the degrees of freedom are calculated as:
Example:
1. A marketing research firm wishes to know if the mean number of his of
TV viewing per week is the same for teenage boys and teenage girls using a 5%
level of significance. The unknown population variances are assumed to be
equal. The following data were obtained is an attempt to test the equality of 1
and 2.
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Teenage Boys Teenage Girls
n1 = 20 n2 = 12
= 24.5 hrs = 28.7 hrs
2 2
S 1 = 64 hrs S 2 = 71 hrs
Test the above hypothesis.
Solution
1. Ho: 1 2 or 1-2 = 0
Ha: 1 2 or 1-2 0
2. t – distribution , Two - tailed test
3. = 0.05 v = n1 + n2 - 2
/2 = 0.025 = 12 + 20 –2 = 30
t/2, V = t0.25, 30 = 2.042
Reject Ho if /sample t/ 2.042
4. Teenage Boys Teenage Girls
n1 = 20 n2 = 12
= 24.5 hrs = 28.7 hrs
2 2
S 1 = 64 hrs S 2 = 71 hrs
Sample t =?
Use a 1% level of significance to test the hypothesis. Assume the populations are
approximately normal, the population variances are equal, and the samples are
independent.
Solution
1. Ho: 1 - 2 0
Ha: 1 - 2 0
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2. t – distribution , Left - tailed test
3. = 0.01 v = 10 +8-2 = 16
4. t, v = t0.01,16 = 2.583
Reject Ho if sample t - 2.583
Sample t =?
The mean length of time required to perform a certain task for day-shift
employees is greater than or equal to for night shift employees.
items from the second; and calculate and . Once we obtain and
The first form leads to a two-tailed test while the later two lead to a one-tailed
test.
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The central Limit Theorem applied to the difference between two population
proportions states that values are normally distributed, with a mean of P 1-
However, since the standard error is unknown, it has to be estimated from the
sample data. While we may be tempted to use and as we did with the
interval estimation procedure, in hypothesis testing we often adjust it to a
slightly different form. For the special case where the hypotheses involve no
difference between the population proportions (i.e. either Ho: P 1-P2 = 0 Ho: P1-P2
0, or Ho: P1-P2 0) is modified to reflect the fact that when we assume H o to be
true at the equality, we are assuming P1 = P2. When this occurs, we combine or
pool the two sample proportions to provide one estimate. This pooled estimator,
Example:
1. In a sample of 400 products produced by machine I, 200 were defective,
and in a sample of 400 products produced by machine II, 170 were defective.
Using = 0.05, test the hypothesis that the rate of defect is the same for both
machine 1 and machine 2.
Solution
1. Ho: P1-P2 = 0
Ha: P1-P2 0
2. Z – distribution, two – tailed test
3. = 0.05,
/2 = 0.025
Z/2 = Z0.025 = 1.96
Reject Ho if /Sample Z/ 1.96
4. Machine I Machine II
n1 = 400 n2 = 400
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x1 = 200 x2 = 170
Sample =
5. Reject Ho
2. To test the effectiveness of the approach and layout of two direct mail
brochures, a marketing manager of SELAM Inc mailed out 150 copies of each
brochure and recorded the number of responses penetrated by each. There were
30 responses generated by the first brochure and 15 generated by the second.
Can the marketing manager conclude that the first brochure is more effective?
Use = 0.05.
Solution
1. Ho: P1-P2 0
Ha: P1-P2 0
2. Z – distribution, Right – tailed test
3. = 0.05,
Z = Z0.05 = 1.64
Reject Ho if Sample Z 1.64
4. Brochure I Brochure II
n1 = 150 n2= 150
x1 = 30 x2 = 15
Sample =
5. Reject Ho. YES, the marketing manager can conclude that the first brochure is
more effective than the second.
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of defectives assembled by the first shift is greater than or equal to that for the
second shift? Use a 0.05 level of significance.
Solution
1. Ho: P1-P2 0
Ha: P1-P2 0
2. Z distribution, Left-tailed test
3. = 0.05,
Z = Z0.05 = 1.64
Reject Ho if Sample Z 1.64
4. Shift 1 Shift 2
n1 = 50 n2 = 50
x1 = 10 x2 = 20
Sample =
5. Reject Ho.
The proportion of defectives assembled by the second shift is greater than that
for the first shift.
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