8/30/2013

Production Forecasting for

Unconventional Resources
Lecture 3
Type Curve Analysis and Flow
Regime Identification

Learning Objectives
You will be able to
 Explain value of dimensionless variables in type curves
 Sketch basic Gringarten type curve and state inherent
assumptions
 Sketch basic derivative type curve
 State expected shapes on diagnostic plot for volumetric, linear,
and bilinear flow
 Sketch shape of variable-rate well data plotted vs. MBT
 Identify flow regimes on log-log plots
 Identify off-trend ‘flow regimes’
 Fracture fluid clean-up
 Changing BHP

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Type Curves
 Pre-plotted solutions to flow equations
for selected formations and conditions
 Powerful method for analyzing transient
pressure and rate data
 Best match provides qualitative and
quantitative descriptions of formation
and properties
 Field data overlaid on type curve for
quantitative matching

Relevance of Type Curves in Production

Forecasting
 Advanced decline curve analysis
 Important method for forecasting future
production from unconventional (and
conventional) resources
 Makes extensive use of type curves
(including derivative type curves)
 Flow regime identification

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Dimensionless Variables
qB  948ct r 2 
p  pi  70.6 Ei 
kh  kt 
 
  r  rD  r
2
  
kh pi  p  1 
 rw   rw
  Ei   
141.2qB 2   0.0002637 kt  
 4 
kh pi  p    
   ct rw  
2
pD 
141.2qB 0.0002637 kt
1  rD2  tD 
p D   Ei  ct rw2
2  4t D 

Dimensionless Variables
 Advantages
 Solution can be expressed in terms of
single variable (tD) and parameter (rD)
 Much simpler graphical or tabular
presentation of solution
 Can include dimensionless skin factor (s)
and wellbore storage coefficient (CD)
0 .8936C
CD 
ct hrw2

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Gringarten Type Curves

 Based on solution to radial diffusivity
equation
 Vertical well, constant production rate
 Variable rate modeled using Δp/q instead of Δp
 Infinite-acting, homogenous-acting reservoir
 Single-phase, slightly compressible liquid
flowing
 Infinitesimal skin factor (thin ‘membrane’) at
production face
 Constant wellbore-storage coefficient

Gringarten Type Curve

1E+03

𝑘ℎ 𝑝𝑖 − 𝑝𝑤𝑓 1 2s

𝑝𝑤𝐷 = =
CDe

141.2𝑞𝐵𝜇 𝑞𝑤𝐷
125
10
1E+02 1060
1030
15
10
108
1E+01 103
1
pwD

0.01
0.001

1E+00

1E-01

1E-02
1E-02 1E-01 1E+00 1E+01 1E+02 1E+03 1E+04 1E+05
tD/CD

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Derivative Type Curve

 Eliminates ambiguity in Gringarten type curve
matching
 ‘Derivative’ of solution to radial diffusivity
equation on Gringarten type curve
 Derivative is
pD p
 t D D  t D pD
 ln t D t D
or
 p  p
t  t  p
 ln t  t

Pressure Derivative
 Infinite-acting radial flow

70.6qB   1688 c r 2  
p   ln t w 
 2s
kh   kt 
 
Derivatives: In dimensionless terms,
 p  p
t  p D  0.5lnt D   0.809  2 s 
t  ln t 
Derivatives:
p 70.6qB p D p D p D
t  tD  tD  0 .5
t kh t D  ln t D  t D

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Pressure Derivative
 Complete wellbore storage distortion
qBt In dimensionless terms,
p 
24C pD  t D / C D
Derivative:
Derivative:
p qBt
t   p p D
t 24C tD  t D / C D  pD
t D

Derivative Type Curve

100
Differences in curve CDe2s=1060
shapes make
matching easier
CDe2s=1010
tDp´D

CDe2s=100

CDe2s=0.01

0.01 100,000
tD/CD

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Pressure + Derivative Type Curves

100

pD

0.01 100,000
tD/CD

Type-Curve Plots for Variable Rate Production

𝑝𝑖 −𝑝𝑤𝑓
 ‘Normalized rate,’ , and its time
𝑞
derivative can be plotted and analyzed
on a log-log plot in many cases
 Smoothly changing rates modeled best
 Procedure valid even for constant BHP
production in many cases
1
 Log-log plot of q (or ) vs. t appropriate
𝑞
for constant BHP pressure production since
∆𝑝 constant

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Diagnostic Plots

Volumetric Behavior

Reservoir acts like tank

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Volumetric Behavior
Fluids from outside ‘recharge’
tank or reduce pressure at
uniform rates throughout
drainage area

Volumetric Behavior Examples

 Wellbore storage
 Dominates during early-time period
 Fluid leaves or enters ‘tank’ during early
test time
 Pseudosteady-state flow
 Closed reservoir, constant-rate production
 Pressure changes uniformly as fluid leaves
through well

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Volumetric Models
 Wellbore storage qBt
p 
24C
 Pseudosteady-state flow

0.0744qBt
pi  pwf 
c t hre2
141.2qB   re  3 
 ln    s
 4
kh   rw  

Volumetric Models
 General form
p  mV t  bV
 Derivative of general form

 p  mV t  bV 
t t
t t
 mV t

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Derivative Plot

Pressure change during recharge

or pseudosteadystate flow

Pressure derivative
Pressure change during
wellbore storage

Elapsed time (t ), hrs

Linear Flow
Hydraulically Fractured Well
Vertical wellbore Fracture

Linear flow

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Linear Flow

 Occurs in hydraulically fractured wells

 With estimate of permeability,
provides data to estimate fracture
half-length

Transient Linear Flow – Variable Rate

 For variable rate production, including
production at constant BHP,
 p  p   16.26 B 
i wf t 
1/ 2

  141.2
B
sf
q A f  kct  kh
 Reciprocal has form
𝑞 1
=
𝑝𝑖 − 𝑝𝑤𝑓 𝑚𝐿𝑡 0.5 + 𝑏𝐿𝑠𝑓

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Transient Linear Flow Models

 General form

p / q  mLt 1 2  bL s f
 Derivative

 (p / q) 1
t  mL t 1 2
t 2

Transient Linear Flow Models

Δp/q in damaged-fractured or horizontal
well
Δp/q in undamaged
fractured well

1
derivative
2

Elapsed time (t ), hrs

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Transient Bilinear Flow

Transient Bilinear Flow Model

pi  pwf 44.1B 141.2 B
 t 0.25 
hw f k f  ct 
0.5 2
st
q kh
 General form
∆𝑝 1
= 𝑚𝐵 𝑡 4 + 𝑏𝐵 𝑠𝑓
𝑞

 Derivative
 (p / q) 1
t  mB t 1 4
t 4

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Transient Bilinear Flow Models

Δp/q in fractured,
damaged well
Δp/q in fractured,
undamaged well

1
derivative
4

Elapsed time (t ), hrs

Use of Material Balance Time (MBT) for Flow

Regime Identification
 Definition of MBT
𝑁𝑝 𝐺𝑝
𝑡𝑚𝑏 = or
𝑞 𝑞
 Definitions of qD, 1/pD
 𝑞𝐷 = 141.2𝑞𝐵μ/𝑘ℎΔ𝑝 … variable rate or constant BHP production
1
 = 141.2𝑞𝐵μ/𝑘ℎΔ𝑝 … constant rate production
𝑝𝐷

Useful characteristics of MBT

 No effect on shape of log-log plot of q/Δp vs. tmb for
transient radial or linear flow
 For BDF, transforms shape of q/Δp vs. tmb plot for variable
rate (including constant BHP production) to shape for
constant rate production (unit slope line during BDF)

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Comparison of Constant Rate, Constant BHP

Solutions for Radial Transient Flow and BDF

(Pet. Soc. 2003-201)

Comparison of Constant BHP Solution, Corrected

with MBT, and Constant Rate Solution

(Pet. Soc. 2003-201)

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Conclusions from Use of Material-Balance Time

 For well producing with variable rate
(including constant BHP), on plot of
q/Δp vs. tmb , we can identify
 Transient linear flow by slope of -1/2
 Boundary-dominated flow by slope of -1

‘Bad Data’ Caused by Fracture Fluid Cleanup

(Uncorrectable) and Changing BHP (Correctable)

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Learning Objectives
You will be able to
 Explain value of dimensionless variables in type curves
 Sketch basic Gringarten type curve and state inherent
assumptions
 Sketch basic derivative type curve
 State expected shapes on diagnostic plot for volumetric, linear,
and bilinear flow
 Sketch shape of variable-rate well data plotted vs. MBT
 Identify flow regimes on log-log plots
 Identify off-trend ‘flow regimes’
 Fracture fluid clean-up
 Changing BHP

Production Forecasting for

Unconventional Resources
Lecture 3
Type Curve Analysis and Flow
Regime Identification
End

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