An Analysis of the Cryptocurrency

Market and Perspectives

SIMRAN TYAGI

University School of Management and Entrepreneurship

Delhi Technological University

Abstract
This paper explores cryptocurrencies, which are digital forms of money secured by
advanced technology. They're becoming more valuable and popular worldwide, but
they also pose challenges for businesses and economics. This introductory article
looks at research on cryptocurrencies using simple ideas from economic theories. It
focuses on social, misconduct, and sustainability issues. The papers chosen for this
issue add important insights to what we know about cryptocurrencies. While
cryptocurrencies can be helpful and valuable, there's a need for rules to make sure
they're used fairly and don't harm society. This might seem to contradict the idea of
cryptocurrencies being free from rules, but it's necessary to make sure everyone
benefits from them.

Introduction
Cryptocurrency has garnered attention from developers, investors, and researchers in
recent years. Despite notable fluctuations in the market [Arthur Iinuma, 2018], its total
value has surged to hundreds of billions of US dollars. Moreover, there's a continuous
influx of new cryptocurrencies, trading platforms, developers, and institutional
partners, significantly shaping investment and transaction trends [Hossein Hassani, Xu
Huang and Emmanuel Silva, 2018]. With a market value nearing three trillion dollars,
cryptocurrency undeniably impacts investment and financial transactions today.
Cryptocurrency refers to a form of digital currency secured by cryptography. The
initial cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, was created by Satoshi Nakamoto [Satoshi Nakamoto,
2008] in 2008 and has been operational since 2009. Since its inception, Bitcoin has
evolved to become the most renowned cryptocurrency and is often synonymous with
the broader category of cryptocurrencies or digital currencies [Panos Mourdoukoutas,
2018].

What is Cryptocurrency?

Cryptocurrencies function as digital financial assets, wherein ownership records and

transfers are secured through cryptographic technology rather than relying on
traditional banks or trusted intermediaries. Although they lack backing from physical
assets like gold or enterprise equipment stocks, cryptocurrencies hold value for their
holders, despite not representing corresponding liabilities from any other party
[Raiborn and Sivitanides, 2015].

Key Characteristics of Cryptocurrency:

Cryptocurrency operates on decentralised control, enabling direct transactions

between buyers and sellers without intermediaries. This peer-to-peer nature ensures
maximum privacy for users. Additionally, transactions are irreversible and applicable
worldwide, providing an efficient and secure means of exchange. Cryptocurrency also
mitigates concerns related to double spending, further enhancing its utility and
reliability as a digital currency [Hossein Hassani, Xu Huang and Emmanuel Silva,
2018].

Challenges Associated with Cryptocurrency:

The cryptocurrency market has experienced fluctuations, raising concerns about its
stability and long-term prospects. Researchers have evaluated the market efficiency of
cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and explored factors influencing their volatility and
value. Various determinants, including policy uncertainty [Ender Demir, Giray
Gozgor, Chi Keung Marco Lau and Samuel A. Vigne, 2018], global economic
conditions [Elie Bouri, Rangan Gupta, Aviral Kumar Tiwari and David Roubaud,
2017], production costs [Adam S.Hayes, 2017], and financial regulations [Gina Pieters
and Sofia Vivanco, 2017], have been investigated across disciplines to better
understand the dynamics of cryptocurrency markets.

Recent discussions surrounding cryptocurrencies have intensified due to these

challenges, prompting calls for enhanced regulation or even outright bans. These
concerns also extend to debates over the classification of cryptocurrencies, whether as
commodities, currencies, or alternative assets. Additionally, there is ongoing discourse
regarding the potential development of cryptocurrency derivatives and credit
contracts, alongside the utilisation of initial coin offerings (ICOs) as a means of
funding start-up ventures using cryptocurrency technology. Furthermore, central banks
are actively exploring the issuance of digital currencies using cryptocurrency
technologies, further complicating regulatory and economic deliberations in this
swiftly evolving domain [Giancarlo Giudici, Alistair Milne and Dmitri Vinogradov,
2019].

Currently, there is a lack of well-established scientific understanding regarding the

dynamics of cryptocurrency markets and their implications for economies, businesses,
and individuals [Giancarlo Giudici, Alistair Milne and Dmitri Vinogradov, 2019]. This
research paper seeks to address this gap by providing valuable insights. The collection
of papers in this special issue presents diverse viewpoints on cryptocurrencies,
drawing from both traditional and behavioural perspectives. These papers explore not
only financial aspects but also broader issues concerning the intersection of
cryptocurrencies with socio-economic development and sustainability.

Literature Review
The term "cryptocurrency" and related terms like "coin" and "wallet" used in the
original whitepaper introducing the technology behind Bitcoin [Satoshi Nakamoto,
2008] suggest that the initial developers aimed to create a digital transfer mechanism
mirroring the direct exchange of physical cash or other financial assets, such as
precious metals and bearer bonds, which are also exchanged through physical
transfers. In contrast, the arrangements for financial assets recorded in digital form,
such as bank deposits, equities, or bonds (excluding bearer bonds or banknotes), rely
on information systems maintained by financial institutions like commercial banks,
custodian banks, or fund managers. These systems determine ownership rights,
entitlements to income or other benefits, and the authority for sale or transfer. Initially,
these systems were paper-based, but since the 1960s, they have transitioned to
mainframe and, more recently, computer systems [Milne, 2015].

If there is a flaw in the information system—for instance, a security breach resulting

in theft or loss, or a failure to execute a transfer instruction—the financial institution is
legally obligated to compensate the asset owner [Giancarlo Giudici, Alistair Milne and
Dmitri Vinogradov, 2019].

Cryptocurrencies operate differently from traditional financial assets in that ownership

verification and transfers are facilitated by supporting software, eliminating the need
for a "trusted third party." This approach relies on a comprehensive historical record
of cryptocurrency transfers, tracing each unit of cryptocurrency back to its initial
creation. This historical record is maintained through a technology called
"blockchain," which links individual records ("blocks") in a sequential and immutable
manner. Each new block contains information about previous blocks, forming a
continuously growing list or "chain" of digital records. To ensure consensus across the
entire cryptocurrency network, every participant must agree to accept a new block,
thus ensuring that all participants have access to the same transaction history
[Giancarlo Giudici, Alistair Milne and Dmitri Vinogradov, 2019].

Falsifying ownership, akin to counterfeiting, is inherently impossible in

cryptocurrencies due to their decentralised nature. While digital objects can be easily
duplicated through copying, altering ownership records in the blockchain—the
distributed ledger maintained by a network of users' computers—is highly impractical.
Any attempt to tamper with preceding records in the chain would require consensus
across the entire network, making it virtually unthinkable.

Subject
What is the value of cryptocurrencies?

The actual economic value transferred through transactions involving freely floating
cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum's Ether remains uncertain. Despite
the detailed and immutable record of all past transactions, which is cryptographically
secure, this information solely pertains to nominal figures, such as the quantity of
cryptocurrency units transferred.

Nevertheless, one can gauge the market value of cryptocurrencies by observing their
exchange rates against established fiat currencies. This is made feasible through
cryptocurrency exchanges, which furnish nearly continuous price data for all actively
traded cryptocurrencies. Although these exchange rates exhibit high volatility, they
indicate that cryptocurrencies possess some value, as evidenced by individuals willing
to exchange fiat currency to acquire them [Giancarlo Giudici, Alistair Milne and
Dmitri Vinogradov, 2019].

What drives this value in the absence of a backing asset or an issuer’s liability?

Some proponents argue that the cost of "mining," which involves the energy and
computational resources expended to create new blocks in the blockchain and is
rewarded with newly issued cryptocurrency units, determines the value of
cryptocurrencies. However, the expense borne by one participant in the network does
not necessarily justify the value of the new cryptocurrency unit for other network
members [ Dwyer, 2015].

Others contend that the market value of cryptocurrencies is driven by speculative

bubbles. However, strictly speaking, a bubble is characterised by upward price
deviations from the fundamental value [Siegel, 2003].

The value of cryptocurrencies, be it Bitcoin, Ethereum, or any alternative coin, is

dictated by the principles of supply and demand. In essence, the price of a particular
cryptocurrency is influenced by the level of interest from buyers (demand) and the
amount of that cryptocurrency available for purchase (supply).

When demand is high but the supply is limited, prices rise. Conversely, when demand
is low but the supply is abundant, prices fall. It's the interplay between supply and
demand that governs the price dynamics of cryptocurrencies.

What factors contribute to the surge in demand for cryptocurrency?

Privacy, particularly anonymity, emerges as a prominent distinguishing characteristic

frequently cited in discussions surrounding cryptocurrencies. The value of a
cryptocurrency often reflects the extent to which users prioritise the anonymity of
their transactions. While anonymity may appeal to individuals engaged in illegal
activities (as some research indicates cryptocurrencies are often utilised for such
purposes), it's important to acknowledge that users may also seek greater privacy to
evade the surveillance associated with traditional transactions [Giancarlo Giudici,
Alistair Milne and Dmitri Vinogradov, 2019].

Additionally, other factors contributing to the increased demand for cryptocurrencies

may include trends or fashion (a desire to adopt technology that others are discussing),
the allure of cutting-edge technology (a preference for utilising the latest innovations),
or simply curiosity (an inclination to explore something new). However, these factors
typically exhibit shorter-lived effects compared to the enduring appeal of anonymity
[Giancarlo Giudici, Alistair Milne and Dmitri Vinogradov, 2019].

Cryptocurrencies and neoclassical finance

Cryptocurrency as a financial asset:

Cryptocurrencies serve dual roles as both a medium of exchange and a financial asset
[Corbet et al, 2019]. However, the Bitcoin market, in particular, has demonstrated a
notable degree of inefficiency, especially during its early years [Urquhart, 2016].
Analysing the relationship between the returns of three distinct cryptocurrencies and
various other financial assets across both time and frequency domains reveals a lack
of significant correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets [Corbet et al,
2018].

When comparing cryptocurrency pricing to stocks, it becomes evident that the risk
factors influencing stock prices do not apply to cryptocurrencies. Additionally,
movements in exchange rates, commodity prices, or macroeconomic
factors—typically influential for traditional assets—have minimal to negligible impact
on most cryptocurrencies [Liu and Tsyvinski, 2018].

In summary, the distinct nature of cryptocurrency markets is evidenced by their lack

of similarity to traditional assets such as stocks. The analysis suggests that the factors
driving movements in cryptocurrency prices differ significantly from those affecting
traditional financial assets, highlighting the unique characteristics and dynamics of the
cryptocurrency market.

Cryptocurrencies may offer diversification benefits for investors with short

investment horizons:

Bitcoin serves as a valuable diversification tool as its returns exhibit low correlation
with those of most major assets. Bitcoins are predominantly utilised as speculative
assets, particularly evident in USD transactions data, which likely reflects the
behaviour of U.S. cryptocurrency investors primarily [Bouri et al., 2017 and Baur et
al., 2018]. Crypto tokens offer diversification benefits but are not effective hedges
[Adhami and Guegan, 2020].

To comprehend the similarities and differences between cryptocurrencies and

traditional financial assets, it's beneficial to examine established relationships
observed in traditional asset classes. One such pattern studied extensively in finance
literature is the co-movement of trading volume with returns and volatility of financial
assets. While this relationship is well-documented in equity markets and futures, no
clear evidence of such a relationship exists for currencies, specifically exchange rates
[Côté, 1994].

Bitcoin trading volume does not significantly affect its returns but does have a
positive effect on return volatility. Similar forces govern cryptocurrency markets and
those of more traditional financial assets, thereby reinforcing the perception of
cryptocurrencies as investment assets [Figà-Talamanca, 2020].

Risk of holding cryptocurrencies:

Cryptocurrency prices are susceptible to significant drops due to various factors,

including revealed scams, suspected hacks, or hidden issues. For instance, on June
26th, 2019, the price of Bitcoin experienced a sudden loss of over 10% of its value
within a few minutes. This decline was attributed to crashes and outages experienced
by the Coinbase digital exchange, which disrupted trading activity and led to a rapid
sell-off of Bitcoin holdings. Such events highlight the inherent volatility and
vulnerability of cryptocurrency markets to sudden disruptions and shocks [Fantazzini
and Zimin, 2020].
Set of models to estimate the risk of default of cryptocurrencies:
These models proposed by Fantazzini and Zimin in 2020, are back-tested on 42 digital
coins. The authors emphasise the importance of extending traditional risk analysis to
cryptocurrencies and distinguishing between market risk and credit risk. Market risk,
as conventionally understood in finance, pertains to movements in asset prices, while
credit risk typically involves the failure of a counterparty to repay. However, defining
credit risk for cryptocurrencies is challenging since they do not involve repayments.
The authors propose defining the credit risk of cryptocurrencies in terms of the
possibility of losing credibility among users, potentially rendering them valueless or
"dead". Notably, they find that market risk in cryptocurrencies is largely driven by
Bitcoin, indicating a degree of homogeneity in the cryptomarket.
Regarding credit risk, the authors suggest that traditional credit scoring models based
on factors such as previous month trading volume, one-year trading volume, and
average yearly Google search volume perform remarkably well [Giancarlo Giudici,
Alistair Milne and Dmitri Vinogradov, 2019].

Cryptocurrencies and behavioural finance and economics

A significant portion of the literature explains market phenomena that contradict

neoclassical predictions by considering unquantifiable risk or ambiguity. Ambiguity,
commonly associated with the inability to assign probability values to events, may
arise in the context of cryptocurrencies for two main reasons: (1) the complexity and
opacity of the technology, which may deter unsophisticated traders, and (2) the
uncertain fundamental value of cryptocurrencies, which, even if positive, is likely
derived from intangible factors and thus inherently uncertain [Giancarlo Giudici,
Alistair Milne and Dmitri Vinogradov, 2019].

Under pessimism or ambiguity aversion, uncertainty about fundamentals may lead to

zero trading in traditional financial markets. However, this does not seem to hold true
for cryptocurrencies [Dow and da Costa Werlang, 1992].

The failure of neoclassical predictions may stem from the fact that market participants
are human and can make irrational systematic errors, contrary to the assumption of
rationality [Shiller, 2003]. Behavioural economics studies highlight inefficiencies such
as under- or overreactions to information, attributed to limited investor attention,
overconfidence, mimicry, and noise trading, rooted in prospect theory [Kahneman and
Tversky, 1979].

Cryptocurrency markets exhibit three distinctive features: non-institutional investors,

high risk (volatility of returns), and unclear fundamental value. Under these
conditions, behavioural biases are expected to be more pronounced than in traditional
asset markets [Giancarlo Giudici, Alistair Milne and Dmitri Vinogradov, 2019].

Socio-economic perspectives

Critics highlight that cryptocurrencies are not immune to frauds and scandals. One
recent example is the "Squid Game" token scam, which exploited the popularity of the
Netflix series "Squid Game" to lure investors. However, shortly after its launch, the
creators of the Squid Game token executed a "rug pull" scam. They drained all the
liquidity from the token's liquidity pool and abandoned the project, leaving investors
with worthless tokens. Consequently, many investors suffered significant losses as
they had invested in the token hoping to capitalise on its popularity.

Moreover, cryptocurrency payments are unregulated, thus no illegal purchases are

restricted. In the beginning of the Bitcoin era, most transactions were used for drug
purchases [Böhme et al., 2015].

On a positive note, the emergence of blockchain technology has enabled

entrepreneurial teams to raise capital in cryptocurrencies and fiat money through the
issuance of digital tokens, known as Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), and the
development of 'smart contracts' [Giudici and Adhami, 2019]. While tokens and
cryptocurrencies share similarities, tokens often have a liability or commitment behind
them, determining their value and aligning them more closely with traditional assets.
This alignment suggests that predictions from neoclassical finance may be applicable
to token trading. Liquidity and trading volume of tokens were found to be positively
associated with information inflow, achieved through voluntary disclosure of
information such as operating budgets and business plans, as well as quality
signalling, such as information on prior venture capital funding of the issuer [Howell
et al., 2018].

Cryptocurrencies, which form the basis of ICOs, are lauded for providing more
equitable and democratic access to capital compared to fiat money, facilitating
peer-to-peer transactions and circumventing the need for bank intermediation
[Nakamoto, 2008 and Karlstrøm, 2014]. ICOs represent a significant opportunity for
small businesses that often face funding gaps and lack the expertise to engage with
professional investors [Giudici and Paleari, 2000].

Will cryptocurrencies favour a process of “democratisation” of funding?

Cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies have the potential to boost global

trading volumes while enhancing service quality and reducing transaction fees [World
Economic Forum, 2018]. The widespread adoption of Bitcoin is closely linked to high
levels of international trade freedom, which ensure low tariffs and facilitate global
trade. On one hand, the freedom to engage in international trade can promote foreign
commerce by utilising alternative payment methods that help lower transaction costs,
such as cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, minimal capital controls may incentivize
the use of cryptocurrencies for illicit activities like money laundering [Ricci, 2020].
The reward system for cryptocurrency "miners" provides an incentive to capitalise on
computing power, leading to increased energy consumption. The computational efforts
of miners are particularly costly due to power-intensive proof-of-work calculations,
consuming more than 173 megawatts of electricity continuously [Böhme et al., 2015].
These sustainability issues in cryptocurrency development often outweigh potential
benefits, which are typically captured by a select few individuals. Therefore, it is
imperative to consider different institutional models involving government and public
engagement to prevent the market from being primarily driven by private money and
profit motivations [Vaz and Brown, 2020].

Conclusion
Cryptocurrency has emerged as a significant player in the global financial landscape,
attracting attention from developers, investors, and researchers alike. Despite notable
market fluctuations, the total value of cryptocurrencies has skyrocketed to hundreds of
billions of US dollars, shaping investment and transaction trends worldwide. With a
market value nearing three trillion dollars, cryptocurrencies undeniably impact
investment and financial transactions today.
Cryptocurrencies, operating on decentralised control and secured through
cryptographic technology, offer key characteristics such as privacy, irreversibility, and
global applicability. However, challenges abound, including market fluctuations,
regulatory uncertainty, and the lack of a clear fundamental value. Understanding the
dynamics of cryptocurrency markets and their implications requires interdisciplinary
research encompassing finance, economics, and technology.

From a financial perspective, cryptocurrencies exhibit unique traits compared to

traditional assets, with limited correlation to stock markets and minimal influence
from macroeconomic factors. They offer diversification benefits for investors and
serve as speculative assets, primarily driven by market sentiment rather than
underlying fundamentals.

Behavioural biases play a significant role in cryptocurrency markets, with human

irrationality and ambiguity contributing to market inefficiencies.

Furthermore, the sector is not immune to frauds and scams, posing risks to investors
and highlighting the need for regulatory scrutiny and investor education.

On a positive note, blockchain technology has facilitated capital raising through ICOs
and smart contracts, offering more democratic access to funding for small businesses.

However, sustainability concerns, particularly regarding energy consumption in

cryptocurrency mining, call for institutional interventions to balance private profit
motivations with public interests.

Gaps and Future Scope:

While significant progress has been made in understanding cryptocurrency markets,

several gaps remain in this paper:

Regulatory Framework:

Further research is needed to explore the impact of regulatory interventions on

cryptocurrency markets, including the development of robust regulatory frameworks
to protect investors while fostering innovation.
Market Dynamics:

Deeper insights into the drivers of cryptocurrency prices and the relationship between
market sentiment and asset valuation are essential for predicting market trends and
mitigating risks.

Sustainability:

Addressing sustainability concerns, particularly regarding energy consumption and

environmental impact, requires interdisciplinary collaboration to develop eco-friendly
mining solutions and promote responsible practices.

Integration with Traditional Finance:

Exploring the integration of cryptocurrencies with traditional financial systems,

including the development of cryptocurrency derivatives and credit contracts, presents
opportunities and challenges that warrant further investigation.

Behavioural Factors:

Understanding the role of behavioural biases and investor sentiment in cryptocurrency

markets can inform investment strategies and risk management practices, necessitating
empirical studies and behavioural experiments.

In conclusion, the study of cryptocurrencies is a dynamic and multifaceted field that

offers abundant opportunities for interdisciplinary research and innovation. By
addressing existing gaps and exploring future avenues, researchers can contribute to a
deeper understanding of cryptocurrency markets and their implications for economies,
businesses, and individuals.

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