Chapter 8
Chapter 8
A~sociutc Profrssor
B.E.(C'i,11), Unhl'rstl)' ofR◊t)rk.et.' (IIT. Roorl-.l'e), India
Pl,st Graduate. LC'HS. l und Unhersit), S\\cden
P◊st Gmduote "Seismic Design of Building Stru.:tun;· ·
l nhersil) of St. C')ril and t\kthc:>dius. Skopje. Rt'puhlk of t\l;:iccdom.1
;\ laster Degree (t\ t.E.). Fnscht'de, The Nt'thcrlnnds
Date:- 2080 ~ (ngh
UcruRE 1ToTE-REV1sEo;
8~ RlSI{ ANALYsrs TE,CHNIQUE,
\Nhat is Risk Analysis Technique ?
Risk Matrix
Loss
,~-
Injuries
LO\Y C Impact on fuciht1es, cntic,11
Very
'°"'
D C C ] serv1ces and infrastructure
Propert~ damage
Business interruption
Environmental/
Low Me-dium High Ver) High Economic impact
~
Probab ility
Risk levels
.' . .. Moderate Events that occur from
• I , I "' • .--; I \ , • ,, -
once in 1O years to
B: ,High. F1'f'que11t l'Wllts witb motlt'r:ltt' lo,st', mo1l1•rn11• once in 100 years
--~
& low frt'{Ufllt e-w11rs rnu)iug (w1~') lli)!h hH:.t>, Low Events that occur from
C: ~Iodernte . Ft equt>UI ewnh wirh lo" los,.-, 01 w,) hm once in 100 years to
frequt>llt Ht>ut, ran.sing (n>ry} hil:.h losse~
once in 1000 ):eJrs
Events that oc\'ur less
frt>quently th.l n onct> 111
1000 year-;
Risk Analysis Technique deals with the use of available information to estimate
the risk
caused by hazards. Risk analyses generally contain identification, probnbility of occurren
ce of
hazard, evaluation of the vulnerability and risk estimation.
1. Qualitative methods :
These are used when the hazard cannot be expressed in quantitative terms that means
hazard information does not allow to express the probability of occurrence, or it is not possible
to estimate the magnitude. This is the kind of risk analysis method most often used for
decision making. These methods can be used when the level of risk is low and does not
warrant the time and resources necessary for making a full analysis. These methods are also
used when the numerical data available are not adequate for a more quantitative analysis.
2. Semi-quantitative methods:
Semi-quantitative techniques express risk in terms of risk indices but these do not have a
direct meaning of expected losses. The classifications of loses are in relation to an
appropriate scale for calculating the level of risk. Semi-quantitative analysis need careful
attention to the scale used, in order to avoid misunderstanding or misinterpretation of the
result.
3. Quantitative methods:
Risk can be expressed quantitatively, if there is enough information on the individual
components of hazard, vulnerability and elements at risk. This can be expressed as a
probability value, for a given loss outcome. For instance, the probability of being hit by a rock
fall while driving on the road.
It express the risk in quantitative terms either as probabilities, or expected losses. Quantitative
methods are considered to be those that enable us to assign values of occurrence to the
various risks identified, to calculate the level of risk. The development of these measurements
can be effected by means of different mechanisms, among which we note particularly the
Monte Carlo Method.
!!} HAZUS•MH: alloW's a v11,y oetm ea anal>15fs of losses brised on an enormous amount of
information, The informauon collee.uon can be especially difficult 1n developing countnes
due to the poor or mexistent databases anu the costs ~md ume needed to upcf,re the
information necessary for this me:hoo. HO'never, mfonnation musl be adapted to thf
requirements of HAZUS-MH. Special attemion snou!ti be drn nn ,o the issue of the
Although these loss estimation methodc can gi·,e local authoritie:, a lo~_, tcenano for a
specific hazard, how to use that information for the reltef and reco ,er; process Lo%
estimations can only be considered part of a ,ulnerability anafy!,iS 'l1hen U$ed as complete
inventories of exposed infrastructure and population. /~ore mformation on HAZUS can be
obtained from: www fema.gov/plan/prevent/haz:us
Hazus software 1s a powerful ris~ assessment methodolog/ for anal;z,ng potential losse$
from floods, hurricane, and earthquakes. In Hazus, current scientific and engineenng
knowledge is coupled with the latest geographic information s;stems (GIS) technology to
produce estimates of hazard-related damage before, or after, a disaster occurs.
lli.1 CAPRA
CAPRA is an abbreviation for "Central American Probabilistic Risr Assessmenr. The
objectives of CAPRA are: to develop a Disaster Risi' Information Platform for decision
making using a common methodology and tools for e·,aluating and e/pressing disaster risk,
and to analyze a regional strategy, that is local, ,ersatile and effecii ,e, to ad'lance risr
evaluation and risk management decision making More information on CAPRA and tne
methods used can be obtained from httpJ/wvN✓. ecapra . org/es/
IASC ==..,~
C ulti-Cluster/Sector Initial
11 ■ ~Rapid Assessment (MIRA)