I By: Amrit l\ lnn Tuladhnr.

A~sociutc Profrssor
B.E.(C'i,11), Unhl'rstl)' ofR◊t)rk.et.' (IIT. Roorl-.l'e), India
Pl,st Graduate. LC'HS. l und Unhersit), S\\cden
P◊st Gmduote "Seismic Design of Building Stru.:tun;· ·
l nhersil) of St. C')ril and t\kthc:>dius. Skopje. Rt'puhlk of t\l;:iccdom.1
;\ laster Degree (t\ t.E.). Fnscht'de, The Nt'thcrlnnds
Date:- 2080 ~ (ngh

UcruRE 1ToTE-REV1sEo;
8~ RlSI{ ANALYsrs TE,CHNIQUE,
\Nhat is Risk Analysis Technique ?

Risk Matrix

Loss

High C Based on the potential b-y taking into

account elements at risk
t,•eoium C
Fatalities

,~-
Injuries
LO\Y C Impact on fuciht1es, cntic,11

Very

'°"'
D C C ] serv1ces and infrastructure
Propert~ damage
Business interruption
Environmental/
Low Me-dium High Ver) High Economic impact

~
Probab ility

Risk levels
.' . .. Moderate Events that occur from
• I , I "' • .--; I \ , • ,, -
once in 1O years to
B: ,High. F1'f'que11t l'Wllts witb motlt'r:ltt' lo,st', mo1l1•rn11• once in 100 years
--~
& low frt'{Ufllt e-w11rs rnu)iug (w1~') lli)!h hH:.t>, Low Events that occur from
C: ~Iodernte . Ft equt>UI ewnh wirh lo" los,.-, 01 w,) hm once in 100 years to
frequt>llt Ht>ut, ran.sing (n>ry} hil:.h losse~
once in 1000 ):eJrs
Events that oc\'ur less
frt>quently th.l n onct> 111
1000 year-;
Risk Analysis Technique deals with the use of available information to estimate
the risk
caused by hazards. Risk analyses generally contain identification, probnbility of occurren
ce of
hazard, evaluation of the vulnerability and risk estimation.

© Er. Arnrit Man Tuladhar, Associate Professor (NCE)

 After .ident!fying the risks, the possibility nnd tho conscquoncos of onch r1sk foctor aro
e~amined _in ord~r to _establish tho_~lsj<_M.f'tljx nmJ LOvot of rls~. rho rink nnnlyul~: tochnlquu
will determine which nsl-- fnctors would potontiolly 11nvo n grontor l111poct.

Objectives of Risk Analysis

rlt1I tunjnlJ tho c:,u VIJ
oJ COVlJJ·la
• Understand the procedures for loss
estimation;
• Carry out a qualitative risk assessment
combining susceptibility and vulnerability; l'rttf,utln
r,1i,n1,,,,,t
• Carry out a quantitative risk assessment
using Risk Curves

iu1b ••hJ/(4Jl1)1 111vl,11 1 UIIISMrDICINL

Examplo of Risk Curves

Risk Analysis Methods

There are three types of methods for determining the level of risk, that can be broadly
classified into:

1. Qualitative methods :
These are used when the hazard cannot be expressed in quantitative terms that means
hazard information does not allow to express the probability of occurrence, or it is not possible
to estimate the magnitude. This is the kind of risk analysis method most often used for
decision making. These methods can be used when the level of risk is low and does not
warrant the time and resources necessary for making a full analysis. These methods are also
used when the numerical data available are not adequate for a more quantitative analysis.

2. Semi-quantitative methods:
Semi-quantitative techniques express risk in terms of risk indices but these do not have a
direct meaning of expected losses. The classifications of loses are in relation to an
appropriate scale for calculating the level of risk. Semi-quantitative analysis need careful
attention to the scale used, in order to avoid misunderstanding or misinterpretation of the
result.

3. Quantitative methods:
Risk can be expressed quantitatively, if there is enough information on the individual
components of hazard, vulnerability and elements at risk. This can be expressed as a
probability value, for a given loss outcome. For instance, the probability of being hit by a rock
fall while driving on the road.

It express the risk in quantitative terms either as probabilities, or expected losses. Quantitative
methods are considered to be those that enable us to assign values of occurrence to the
various risks identified, to calculate the level of risk. The development of these measurements
can be effected by means of different mechanisms, among which we note particularly the
Monte Carlo Method.

~ Er. Amrlt Mi.ln Tuladhar, Associate Professor (NCE) Page 2

 P1 is the temporal (e.g. annual) probabil -.yo: occurrenoe of a specific hazard scemmo (Hs}
with a given return period in an area;
PL o:
is the locational or spatial probabd;iy occurrence of a specific hazard scenano wtth a
given return period in an area impacting the elements-at-risk;
V 1s the physical vulnerability, specrfied as the degree of damage to a specific element•
at-risk E.. given the local intensity caused due to the occurrence of hazard scenJno Hs
A is the quantification (value) of the specific t,oe of element at risk evaluated If the vc1lue
is expressed in monetary terms, the ,,SK rna-v a·so be expressed as potenti<ll
damage Various types of Risk Assessment Technique : There ore
vanous tyoes of tools and techniques ava ab'e for Risk Assessment such as hsted
below :

j) SWOT Analysis as ORM Risk Assessment Tools / Technique

s·rHE~G lH OPPORT UNln

• TI1erc i, n I ,1rl) compn:hcn~1\C lcr 11 • Go.,cmmcnl's strong ., ,on
') I..Jll [or DRM comm11111cnl on DRM
• DRM Of!ii1017Al1on 1s quite \\di from • lmpro\ cmcat of 1nfonnaho
C1.:1t11i1l to loc.11 'c, ch m1cm1.1 nnlJ l)()i;1al ncmor 10 \ n
• DR'-.1 11i mcludcd into n11t1orul, rcbton.ll e Gel ~upport from tnlc1U,,lll\J 1Jdl
1

;md i.cctornl d~clopmc nl pl "" oqpm1zat1on tn ORM

• De, c- or•nC'f't of m11.J. It\ cs III DR\1
·--~·.........._,_ Jndcd ..:..uon
TIIIU. \ I
\\ f:.A ~, F.SS
• The mcre:oc of n:i1urul d ~ t
• be ORM I I S)"\IC'ffl I cb ,,_pmfic extreme clmutc event,; due to ch
lj.Wlkl neJ, ·~... (l p d ch n e
c-,.,0~1 oo moo m ru" r:~ h • Co, :I 19 end 1U1
and locahltes conscqucnca lead t o
• Lad l)f b g.h V I) h 1orDRM
locallr\dOR.\1 • I c d1:.,e. pmem
• Lack of firut.•ll t I n-w.u\X f ckcl .:nc of c
~cna oo llJ1d rec ~ mt "
• Lick uf di~r . (omu1 fo
~ lllly11tht- loraJ kHt coo C'tOS)'i
~ ~ ; ; . . . . . . - - ~ - - - - - - - -"---- t:md due w w

!!} HAZUS•MH: alloW's a v11,y oetm ea anal>15fs of losses brised on an enormous amount of
information, The informauon collee.uon can be especially difficult 1n developing countnes
due to the poor or mexistent databases anu the costs ~md ume needed to upcf,re the
information necessary for this me:hoo. HO'never, mfonnation musl be adapted to thf
requirements of HAZUS-MH. Special attemion snou!ti be drn nn ,o the issue of the

© Er. Amrit Man Tuladhar, Associate Professor (NCE)

Page 3
 classifications used by HAZUS, introducing othor ~ourCB~ of error and uncertainty' in the
loss estimation.

Although these loss estimation methodc can gi·,e local authoritie:, a lo~_, tcenano for a
specific hazard, how to use that information for the reltef and reco ,er; process Lo%
estimations can only be considered part of a ,ulnerability anafy!,iS 'l1hen U$ed as complete
inventories of exposed infrastructure and population. /~ore mformation on HAZUS can be
obtained from: www fema.gov/plan/prevent/haz:us

Hazus software 1s a powerful ris~ assessment methodolog/ for anal;z,ng potential losse$
from floods, hurricane, and earthquakes. In Hazus, current scientific and engineenng
knowledge is coupled with the latest geographic information s;stems (GIS) technology to
produce estimates of hazard-related damage before, or after, a disaster occurs.

lli.1 CAPRA
CAPRA is an abbreviation for "Central American Probabilistic Risr Assessmenr. The
objectives of CAPRA are: to develop a Disaster Risi' Information Platform for decision
making using a common methodology and tools for e·,aluating and e/pressing disaster risk,
and to analyze a regional strategy, that is local, ,ersatile and effecii ,e, to ad'lance risr
evaluation and risk management decision making More information on CAPRA and tne
methods used can be obtained from httpJ/wvN✓. ecapra . org/es/

M PDNA = Post Disaster need assessment (Ref: Pdf File)

Yl MIRA =Multi Cluster Initial Rapid Assessment (Ref: Pdf File)

IASC ==..,~

C ulti-Cluster/Sector Initial
11 ■ ~Rapid Assessment (MIRA)

*** End of Chapter 8. ***

e Er. Am rit Man Tuladhar, Associate Professor (N CE) Pagc4