Decision Analysis

AP/ADMS 3300 Section M

Winter 2024

Course Information
Course Instructor: Shamim Abdullah E-mail: [email protected]
Course Days: Tuesday Course Time: 2:30 pm - 5:30 pm
Office Hours & Location: Class Location: ACE 002
After the lecture.

Course eClass site: https://eClass.yorku.ca

Prerequisite
AP/ADMS 2320 3.0 or AK/ADMS 3320 3.0 (prior to Summer 2005)

Land Acknowledgment
York University recognizes that many Indigenous Nations have longstanding
relationships with the territories upon which York University campuses are located that
precede the establishment of York University. York University acknowledges its
presence on the traditional territory of many Indigenous Nations. The area known as
Tkaronto has been care taken by the Anishinabek Nation, the Haudenosaunee
Confederacy, and the Huron-Wendat. It is now home to many First Nation, Inuit, and
Métis communities. We acknowledge the current treaty holders, the Mississaugas of
the Credit First Nation. This territory is subject of the Dish with One Spoon Wampum
Belt Covenant, an agreement to peaceably share and care for the Great Lakes region
(LA&PS Land Acknowledgement).

Tutorials
Further information will be posted on the course eClass site.

Course Overview

Course Description
An introduction to decision analysis under conditions of certainty, uncertainty, risk and
competition. Both single person and group decision making are covered. Problems
from many areas of managerial decision making are considered.

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Course Learning Objectives
By the end of this course, students will be able to:
 Decision Analysis theory, tools, and techniques in real world scenarios
 Structure the problem, model the decisions, develop both influence diagrams
and decision trees as graphical modeling tools for representing the structure of
decisions.
 Analyze and model single and multiple objective decisions situations.
 How to use sensitivity-analysis tools in concert with EMV calculations in the
iterative decision-structuring and analysis process.
 Model uncertainty through the use of probability
 Gain an in-depth understanding of risk and utility theory.
 Model preferences in situations in which the decision maker has multiple and
conflicting objectives.

Course Format and Organization

All classes will be held on campus. During the lecture, material will be covered as
described in the course schedule.

Technical Requirements
Students are required to have a non-programmable calculator.

Course Communication Plan and Office Hours

Communication in the course will occur during lecture and through announcements
and postings on the course website. If you have course related questions, you can use
email to send inquiries or ask during class sessions.
1. Please ensure you read all documentation on the course website.
2. It will be your responsibility to regularly check online posts and your email.

Office hours will be held after each class.

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Course Evaluation
Assessment Due Date Weight % Course Learning Outcome

Attendance Random 5% Assessment of participation

See Course Assessment of knowledge

Term Test - 1 25%
Schedule pertaining to specific lectures.

See Course Assessment of knowledge

Term Test - 2 25%
Schedule pertaining to specific lectures.

See Course Assessment of knowledge

Final Exam 45%
Schedule pertaining to specific lectures.

100%

In-Class Sessions Requirements/restrictions

 When class sessions are conducted in person, the use of electronic gadgets such
as laptops/notebooks/tablets, smart phones, or cell phones is NOT allowed in
the classroom.
 Please keep your electronic gadgets in your bag, they should not be on your desk.
 If there is anything urgent requiring your attention, you may leave the classroom
quietly, without disturbing your classmates, and use your gadget outside.
 No excuses (e.g., use of e-book, use of slides or taking notes directly on the gadget) will
be accepted.

Attendance
1. Attendance will be taken at random during six out of the eleven scheduled class
sessions throughout the semester. The six sessions will be selected at random.
2. Students must be in attendance with no exceptions to count as present in the
class. There is no alternative for the attendance.
3. You are not allowed to sign attendance sheet if you join the class after the start
of attendance exercise.
4. Attendances can be taken any time during the selected lecture session. During
Attendance you are not allowed to leave the room even if you
signed the sheet, unless it is completed.
5. You might need to show your photo ID, if asked.
6. Once attendance is completed during the selected lecture session, no name will
be added further.
7. There might be more than one attendance taken in one lecture. Your signature
needs to be on both sheets for you to be counted as attended that class in full.
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General Course Policy
1. WARNING: Distribution or uploading of course content is STRICTLY PROHIBITED.
All material is copyright protected.
2. You are not allowed to take pictures or record any content of in-person lecture/s.
3. Concerns regarding marks will not be entertained after a week from the release of the
marks/result.
4. Students will not be allowed to write the term tests, or the final exam, unless they are
on the class list.
5. Due to unavoidable circumstances if any lecture is missed due to technical reason,
date for make-up lecture will be announced on course web site.
6. Please ensure you read all documentation on the course eClass site.
7. It is your responsibility to visit course eClass site on a regular basis.
8. If you have a query about the questions solved in any tutorial session,
communicate directly with the tutor, if you are not satisfied with the reply of your
tutor, then contact your professor.

Assessment Descriptions
1. The two Term Tests and the Final Examination will be held in-person (On-campus)
at the same time for all students.
2. Information concerning the Term Tests and Final Exams will be posted on course
eClass site.
3. Both term tests and the final examination will consist of multiple-choice questions
and questions/problems requiring full answers/solutions. A formula sheet will be
provided, if required.

Answers for Multiple Choice and True/False Questions must be recorded on a

SCANTRON sheet by pencil within the designated time of the testing
components. NO EXTRA time will be granted to “bubble in” the Scantrons. No
Excuses (e.g., “I answered all questions. Just need to transfer to Scantron.”)
will be accepted.

It is your responsibility to correctly bubble on Scantron the test/exam version

under “Test Form”. Questions papers will not be returned to the students, you
will get answer book which will have your MCQs portion of marks. However, you
can review on individual basis during office hours. To review you must submit your
request via email within five days from the return date not from your collection
date. When reviewing you are not allowed to take notes, pictures or copy any part
of the testing instrument.

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4. Two Term Tests, each of which is worth 25% of your overall grade.
5. If you miss a term test, the weight of one and only one missed test (25%) will be
automatically (no documents such as doctor notes needed) transferred to the final
examination. If you miss both term tests, your final examination will only weigh
70%.
6. The final examination will be comprehensive if you miss any one or both term tests.
That is, if you miss one term test, or both you will be writing a final exam that
includes material from the entire semester. Duration of Comprehensive Final Exam
might be different than the Regular Final Exam.
7. A Cumulative Formula Sheet will be posted on your course’s eClass website. You
can use this formula sheet in all of your Tests/Exam preparation.
8. There are no alternative exam dates and times for the Term Tests.
9. If students miss the Final Examination and have to defer the exam, the deferred
exam will be a comprehensive examination.
10. If you need religious accommodations, please follow the York University
policy/procedure, and once approved, update your professor at least 96 hours prior
to the testing component.

Missed Tests and Exams

Read point number 5 under “Assessment Description”.

Grading
The grading scheme for this course conforms to the 9-point system used in
undergraduate programs at York University. For a full description of the York grading
system, visit the York University Academic Calendar.

Course Schedule: Weekly Readings and Activities

Required Course Materials

Clemen, R. and T. Reilly, Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools, Duxbury,
3rd Edition, 2014.

Optional Materials
Supporting/Additional material (if any) will be posted on the course website.

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Course Schedule
The following tentative course outline (all inclusive) is subject to "in class" changes as
considered necessary by the Course Director.

Session Date Topic Chapters

1 Jan 9 Introduction; Elements of Decision Problems Chapter 1
Chapter 2
2 Jan 16 Structuring Decision Problems Chapter 3
Decision Trees and Influence Diagrams
Jan 23
3 Making Choices Chapter 4

Jan 30
4 Model Building and Sensitivity Analysis Chapter 5
Feb 4 Term Test I at 2:00 pm Chapters
SUNDAY Location: Keele Campus 1,2,3, and 4
Details: TBA
5 Feb 6 Uncertainty and Preference Modeling Chapter 8
Subjective Probability
6 Feb 13 Probability Basics and Bayesian Statistics Chapter 7
Value of Information Chapter 12
Feb 20 No Class – Reading Week

7 Feb 27 Value of Information Chapter 12

8 Mar 5 Utility Theory Chapter 14

Risk Attitudes, Utility Axioms and Paradoxes Chapter 15
March 10 Term Test II at 6:00 pm Chapters
SUNDAY Location: Keele Campus 5, 7, 8 and 12
Details: TBA
9 Mar 12 Dealing with Conflicting Objectives-I Chapter 16

10 Mar 19 Dealing with Conflicting Objectives- I Chapter 16

11 Mar 26 Dealing with Conflicting Objectives II Chapter 17

Common Final Examination**

(April 10 - 26) (Date and time to be announced on registrar’s/university website)
* If the student wrote both term tests, Coverage will be Chapters 14, 15. 16 and 17. If a student misses
a term test (or both term tests), his/her final exam will be a more balanced comprehensive exam that
covers all chapters.
** Term Tests scheduled on Sundays are counted as Lecture 12

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Course Policies
All students are expected to familiarize themselves with the following information:
 Common University and Course Policies (deferred exams, 20% rule, etc)
 Student Rights & Responsibilities
 Academic Accommodation for Students with Disabilities
 University and School Policies

Please also review the following course policies:

Academic Integrity
As a student at York University, you have a responsibility to both understand and
uphold the integrity of the academic experience. The Faculty of Liberal Arts &
Professional Studies supports the International Center for Academic
Integrity’s definition of academic integrity. That is, you will be committed to acting in
all academic matters, even in the face of adversity, with honesty, trust, fairness,
courage, respect and responsibility. Here is how you can demonstrate academic
integrity in the completion of this course:
 Respect the ideas of others: Your course work should represent your own
knowledge and ideas. You should not falsely claim credit for ideas that are not
your own, by presenting another’s work as yours. If you are quoting,
paraphrasing, or summarizing another person’s work in order to support your
own ideas, identify the work and the author through proper citation practices.
For more information about how to cite properly, use the Student Papers and
Academic Research Kit (SPARK). You can improve your writing, research, and
personal learning abilities through the Learning Commons, or by visiting the
Writing Centre or ESL Open Learning Centre.
 Respect your peers: Know when you are allowed to collaborate. Ask your
instructor about what group work entails when it comes to the sharing of work.
In test situations and assignments, don’t steal or give answers to your peers,
whether in-person or online (e.g., in group chats and/or on third-party content-
sharing websites, such as Chegg, Course Hero, etc.). Both cheating and aiding in
a breach of academic honesty are violations of York University’s academic
honesty policy.
 Respect your course instructor(s): Understand what your instructors are asking
of you in class, as well as on assignments, tests and/or exams. If you are
unsure, ask your professor or teaching assistant. They are committed to making
you feel supported and want to assess you fairly and with integrity. Please do
not submit the same piece of work for more than one course without your
instructor’s permission. That can be considered an act of cheating.
 Respect yourself: When you act with integrity, you know that your work is yours
and yours alone. You do not allow others to take tests for you. You do not buy or
otherwise obtain term papers or assignments. You do the work. As a result, you

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 know that you earned the grades that you receive, so you can be proud of your
York degree. By acting with integrity in your course work, you are also practising
a valuable professional skill that is important in all workplaces.
 Take responsibility: If you have acted in an academically dishonest way, you
can demonstrate courage and take responsibility for your mistake. You can
admit your mistake to your course instructor as soon as possible.

Students who engage in academic dishonesty can be subject to disciplinary action

under the Senate Policy on Academic Honesty. Your lack of familiarity with the Senate
Policy does not constitute a defense against its application. Some academic offences
can also constitute offences under the Criminal Code of Canada, which means that you
may also be subject to criminal charges.

In this course, we strive to maintain academic honesty to the highest extent possible.
Please familiarize yourself with the meaning of academic integrity by completing
SPARK’s Academic Integrity module at the beginning of the course. Breaches of
academic honesty range from cheating to plagiarism (i.e., the improper crediting of
another’s work, the representation of another’s ideas as your own, etc.). All instances
of academic dishonesty in this course will be reported to the appropriate University
authorities and can be punishable according to the Senate Policy on Academic
Honesty.

Generative Artificial Intelligence Usage Policy

Students are not permitted to use generative artificial intelligence (AI) in this
course. Submitting any work created through the use of generative AI tools will be
considered a violation of York University’s Senate Policy on Academic Honesty. If you
do not know whether an online resource or tool can be used in this course, please
contact your instructor for guidance. For more information, please review AI
Technology & Academic Integrity: Information for Students.

Deferred Standing
Deferred standing may be granted to students who are unable to write their FINAL
examination at the scheduled time (due to illness or other extenuating circumstances)
or who are unable to submit their outstanding course work by the end of the term.

Deferred standing requests for ADMS and DEMS courses should follow the procedure
and registration outlined on the School’s online registration system. The system will
issue a ticket number.

Requests should be emailed to the main office of the School of Administrative Studies
([email protected]) no later than seven (7) days from date of the final exam (or from the
last date to submit term course work, for any request to defer a component other than
the final exam). Requests should include your ticket number as issued by the online

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registration system, a completed Deferred Standing Agreement form (DSA) and
relevant supporting documentation. Note: As communicated on March 13, 2020,
Senate Executive has waived until further notice the requirement for students to submit
an Attending Physician’s Statement in support of a request for deferred standing or
petitions.

Requests will be considered on their merit and decisions will be made on a case-by-
case basis. Decisions will be made available on the online portal. No individualized
communication will be sent by the school to students (no letter or e-mails).

NOTE: The deferred examination will be cumulative/comprehensive and cover all

material for the semester. This applies to all students writing a deferred Final Exam,
including those who wrote both Test 1 and Test 2.
To be clear, deferred exams in this course will be a cumulative exam. The deferred
Final exam will be on-campus, and in-person.

Academic Integrity
In this course, we strive to maintain academic honesty to the highest extent possible.
Please familiarize yourself with the meaning of academic integrity by completing
SPARK’s Academic Integrity module at the beginning of the course. Breaches of
academic honesty range from cheating to plagiarism (i.e., the improper crediting of
another’s work, the representation of another’s ideas as your own, etc.). All instances
of academic dishonesty in this course will be reported to the appropriate University
authorities and can be punishable according to the Senate Policy on Academic
Honesty.

Accessibility
While all individuals are expected to satisfy the requirements of their program of study
and to aspire to achieve excellence, the University recognizes that persons with
disabilities may require reasonable accommodation to enable them to perform at their
best. The University encourages students with disabilities to register with Student
Accessibility Services to discuss their accommodation needs as early as possible in the
term to establish the recommended academic accommodations that will be
communicated to Course Directors through their Letter of Accommodation (LOA).

Please let your instructor know as early as possible in the term if you anticipate
requiring academic accommodation so that we can discuss how to consider your
accommodation needs within the context of this course. Sufficient notice is needed so
that reasonable steps for accommodation can be discussed. Accommodations for
tests/exams normally require three (3) weeks (or 21 days) before the scheduled
test/exam to arrange.

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Religious Observance Accommodation
York University is committed to respecting the religious beliefs and practices of all
members of the community, and making reasonable and appropriate accommodations
to adherents for observances of special significance. Should any of the dates specified
in this syllabus for course examinations, tests, or deadlines conflict with a date of
religious significance, please contact the instructor within the first three (3) weeks of
class. If the date falls within the formal examination periods, you must complete and
submit a Religious Accommodation for Examination Form at least three (3) weeks
before the start of the exam period.

Intellectual Property
Course materials are designed for use as part of this particular course at York
University and are the intellectual property of the instructor unless otherwise stated.
Third-party copyrighted materials (such as book chapters, journal articles, music,
videos, etc.) have either been licensed for use in this course or fall under an exception
or limitation in Canadian copyright law. Students may not publish, post on an Internet
site, sell, or otherwise distribute any course materials or work without the instructor’s
express permission. Course materials should only be used by students enrolled in this
course.

Copying this material for distribution (e.g., uploading material to a commercial third-
party website) may lead to a charge of misconduct according to York’s Code of Student
Rights and Responsibilities, the Senate Policy on Academic Honesty, and/or legal
consequences for copyright violations.

Student Conduct in the Learning Environment

York University is committed to fostering teaching and learning environments that are
free of disruptive and/or harassing behaviour, are physically safe, and conducive to
effective teaching and learning. Students and instructors are expected to maintain a
professional relationship characterized by courtesy, civility, and mutual respect and to
refrain from actions disruptive to such a relationship. Individuals who fail to adhere to
such standards and who violate University or public law may be subject to disciplinary
action by the University.

For more information, see the policies on Disruptive and/or Harassing Behaviour in
Academic Situations, the Student Conduct and Responsibilities, and the Code of
Student Rights & Responsibilities.

Netiquette for eClass and Online Learning

Students and instructors have a joint responsibility to create and maintain a welcoming
and inclusive learning environment. All students are expected to conduct themselves
in accordance with the Code of Student Rights and Responsibilities. Please review and

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familiarize yourself with behaviours that support “netiquette” in virtual classrooms by
consulting the Guide to Netiquette and Student Guide to eLearning.

Student Notice of Recording for Online Teaching and Learning

Activities for this course involve recording, in partial fulfillment of the course learning
outcomes. Images, audio, text/chat messaging that have been recorded may be used
and/or made available by the University to students enrolled in the course and those
supporting the course for the purpose of materials review, for assessment, etc.
Recordings will be managed according to the University’s Common Record Schedule
and will be securely destroyed when no longer needed by the University. Your personal
information is protected in accordance with York University’s Guidelines on Access of
Information and Protection of Privacy and the Freedom of Information and Protection
of Privacy Act. Access to online materials, including recordings or live meetings, is
subject to York University’s Senate Policy on Computing and Information Technology
Facilities.

The University will use reasonable means to protect the security and confidentiality of
the recorded information, but cannot provide a guarantee of such due to factors
beyond the University’s control, such as recordings being forwarded, copied,
intercepted, circulated, disclosed, or stored without the University’s knowledge or
permission, or the introduction of malware into computer system which could
potentially damage or disrupt the computer, networks, and security settings. The
University is not responsible for connectivity/technical difficulties or loss of data
associated with your hardware, software, or Internet connection.

By engaging in course activities that involve recording, you are consenting to the use of
your appearance, image, text/chat messaging, and voice and/or likeness in the manner
and under the conditions specified herein. In the case of a live stream recording, if you
choose not to have your image or audio recorded, you may disable the audio and video
functionality. If you choose to participate using a pseudonym instead of your real
name, you must disclose the pseudonym to your instructor in advance to facilitate
class participation.

You are not permitted to disclose the link to/URL of an event or an event session
recording or copies of recording to anyone, for any reason. Recordings are available
only to authorized individuals who have been directly provided the above
instructions/link for their use. Recordings for personal use, required to facilitate your
learning and preparation of personal course/lecture notes, may not be shared with
others without the permission of the instructor or event coordinator, and may not be
published, posted, linked to, or otherwise made available online, including on social
media feeds, even if those feeds are private.

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Health and Safety
All York students and instructors share responsibility for the safety and well-being of the
community while on York's campuses. Please continue to check YUBetter Together for the
latest information on health and safety.

Student Support and Resources

To help you succeed academically, York University offers a wide range of resources
and services. Everything from writing workshops and peer mentorship to wellness
support and career guidance is available to fulfill our LA&PS students’ needs. Explore
the links below to access these on-campus resources:
 Academic Advising is available to provide students support and guidance in
making academic decisions and goals.
 Student Accessibility Services are available for support and accessibility
accommodation when required.
 Student Counselling, Health & Wellbeing offers workshops, resources, and
counselling to support your academic success.
 Peer-Assisted Study Sessions (PASS) Program provides student study sessions
for students to collaborate and enhance their understanding of course content
in certain courses.
 Student Numeracy Assistance Centre at Keele (SNACK) supports students in
courses involving math, stats, and Excel.
 The Writing Centre provides multiple avenues of writing-based support
including drop-in sessions, one-to-one appointments, a Multilingual Studio, and
an Accessibility Specialist.
 ESL Open Learning Centre (OLC) supports students with building proficiency in
reading, writing, and speaking English.
 Learning Skills Services provides tips for time management, effective study and
learning habits, keeping up with coursework, and other learning-related
supports.
 Learning Commons provides links to supports for time management, writing,
study skills, preparing for exams, and other learning-related resources.
 Roadmap to Student Success provides students with timely and targeted
resources to help them achieve academic, personal, and professional success.
 Office of Student Community Relations (OSCR) is responsible for administering
the Code of Student Rights & Responsibilities and provides critical incident
support.
 goSAFE is staffed by York students and can accompany York community
members to and from any on-campus location, such as the Village Shuttle pick-
up hub, parking lots, bus stops, or residences.

For a full list of academic, wellness, and campus resources visit Student Support &
Resources.

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