DEEP DIVE

Central Depository Services

 10 April 2024 Deep Dive

CDSL
Restoring growth BUY
CDSL growth is expected to resume led by a recovery in market-linked revenue
CMP (as on 09 April ‘24) INR 1,866
(transaction, IPO, and KYC) and a strong annuity stream (annual issuer charges
and e-CAS). Incremental revenue from compulsory Demat of new insurance Target Price INR 2,360
policies (effective April 2024) and unlisted companies (Private Ltd) will provide NIFTY 22,643
a growth push in FY25E. The BO account addition is the core building block of
the depository business and continued strong additions will support growth. KEY
OLD NEW
CDSL added ~33mn accounts in FY24 (~0.13mn accounts every day) registering CHANGES
a growth of +39% YoY. It has a 76% BO market share with an 88% incremental Rating BUY BUY
share. We expect CDSL growth to be supported by (1) strong BO account
Price Target INR 2,170 INR 2,360
additions, (2) traction in market-linked revenue, (3) a stable annuity revenue
stream, and (4) contribution from CIRL. The insurance segment will contribute FY25E FY26E
EPS %
revenue of INR 0.31/0.35bn in FY25/26E assuming a 10/15% market share. We +7.0 +8.8
increase our EPS estimate by ~7/9% for FY25/26E, implying
revenue/EBITDA/APAT CAGR of 21/24/23% over FY24-26E. We maintain our
BUY rating and assign a TP of INR 2,360, based on 40x FY26E EPS. The stock KEY STOCK DATA

has traded at an average 3Y/5Y 1-year forward P/E multiple of 42/35x. CDSL has Bloomberg code CDSL IN
a RoE of 32%, RoIC of 82%, 5Y average cash conversion is >80%, and net cash is No. of Shares (mn) 105
~6% of the market cap.
Insurance opportunity: The compulsory dematerialisation of insurance policies MCap (INR bn) / ($ mn) 195/2,385

from 1st April will open new opportunities for the four IRDA-registered insurance 6m avg traded value (INR mn) 2,879
repositories (NDML, CAMS, KARVY and CIRL). The current penetration is very 52 Week high / low INR 2,067/971
low at 2% and will increase rapidly with the regulatory push. As per our estimate,
the total recurring opportunity for repositories will be ~INR 3.13bn assuming only
general & health insurance policies and life insurance policies ex of LIC. CIRL has STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
tied up with 22/20 life and general insurers with a 10% market share. We have 3M 6M 12M
assumed a net new revenue opportunity of INR 0.31bn, which is ~4% of FY24
Absolute (%) (0.4) 42.6 91.7
revenue.
Recovery in market-linked revenue: CDSL derives ~60% of revenue from Relative (%) (5.0) 28.6 66.8
market-linked sources (transaction, IPO/corporate action and KYC). The market-
linked revenue has recovered strongly in 9MFY24 after a ~21% YoY drop in FY23.
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
The transaction revenue is cyclical and has a high correlation with the growth in
delivery trades, which is up 49% YoY in FY24. We expect the market-linked Sep -23 Dec-23
revenue to register a 16% CAGR over FY24-26E, driven by a 10/12/28% CAGRs in Promoters 15.00 15.00
transaction/IPO/KYC revenues.
FIs & Local MFs 21.80 21.33
High annuity revenue will drive growth: Annual issuer charges, e-voting and e-
FPIs 15.25 18.16
CAS are annuity revenue streams and contribute ~40% of revenue. The annuity
revenue provides growth stability in a volatile environment. It has registered a Public & Others 47.94 45.51
44% CAGR over the last three years and we expect a further boost with the Pledged Shares 0.00 0.00
insurance opportunity. The depository business has a high correlation with the
Source : NSE
growth in the number of Demat accounts, revenue/Demat is lower initially but
scales with maturity. We expect the annuity revenue stream to grow at a CAGR
of 28% over FY24-26E to reach 45% of revenue in FY26E.
Financial Summary (consolidated)
YE March (INR mn) FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Net Revenues 3,437 5,513 5,551 7,978 9,983 11,705
EBITDA 2,118 3,669 3,233 4,840 6,251 7,501
APAT 2,003 3,112 2,759 4,087 5,194 6,166
Diluted EPS (INR) 19.2 29.8 26.4 39.1 49.7 59.0
P/E (x) 97.4 62.7 70.7 47.7 37.6 31.6
Amit Chandra
EV / EBITDA (x) 87.7 50.1 57.0 37.8 28.9 23.8
[email protected]
RoE (%) 25.0 31.6 23.9 31.5 35.1 36.1
+91-22-6171-7345
Source: Company, HSIE Research

HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters
Central Depository Services (India) Ltd: Deep Dive

Insurance opportunity—now a reality

CDSL, through its subsidiary CIRL (CDSL Insurance Repository Ltd), provides
insurance dematerialisation services. IRDA in March 2024 issued a notification
directing compulsory dematerialisation of all new insurance policies. The compulsory
dematerialisation of insurance policies will open new opportunities for the four IRDA-
registered insurance repositories (NDML, CAMS, KARVY and CIRL). As per our
estimate, the total recurring opportunity for repositories will be ~INR 3.45bn,
considering both life and general insurance policies. CIRL has a tie-up with 22 life
insurance and 19 general insurance companies. As of FY23, NDML/CAMS is the leader
with ~80% market share and CIRL has a market share of ~9%. The new opportunity for
CIRL comes to ~INR 0.31bn considering a 10% market share, which is ~4% of CDSL
FY24E revenue. CIRL was not aggressive in the insurance space but with the regulatory
push, the market size has expanded, and the annuity nature makes it attractive. With
an increase in focus, CIRL can gain market share as the company has tie-ups with most
of the insurance companies that are also shareholders in CIRL.
As of FY23, ~13mn policies are in electronic form, and the penetration is very low at
~2%. CIRL has ~0.8mn policies in 0.9mn EIA accounts and has generated a revenue of
INR 5.9mn. The current realisation from life/general policies is ~INR 24/10. We have
assumed a realisation of INR 15/10 per policy for life/general policies, respectively.
Insurance Opportunity FY23
Total Life Insurance policies in India (mn) 328
LIC policies (mn) 277
Non LIC Policies (mn) 51

New Additions (mn)

LIC 20
Non LIC 8

Life Opportunity (INR mn)

Total Life (non-LIC) Recurring @ INR 15/policy 121
CDSL Life (non-LIC) opportunity (@ 10% market share) 12

General Insurance Policies issued in India/year (mn) 302

Recurring opportunity from Demat @ INR 10/policy 3,018
CDSL revenue @ 10% market share 302
CDSL revenue (life + general) 314
% of CDSL FY24 revenue 3.9%
PAT 165
% of FY24E PAT 4.0%
Source: IRDA, LIC, Company, HSIE Research

Page | 2
Central Depository Services (India) Ltd: Deep Dive

No of EIA accounts for CIRL and NDML – CIRL has a 9% CIRL realisation per ePolicy has been sliding down, we
market share and NDML has ~55% market share have assumed it to stabilise at INR 10/ePolicy

Source: NSDL, CDSL, HSIE Research Source: CDSL, HSIE Research

The total number of general and health insurance policies CIRL shareholding pattern (FY23) - ~49% stake held by
has registered a CAGR of 11% over the last 10 years leading insurance companies

Source: NSDL, CDSL, HSIE Research Source: CDSL, HSIE Research

Page | 3
Central Depository Services (India) Ltd: Deep Dive

Demat account addition strong—CDSL is the market leader

CDSL BO accounts jumped ~7x in the last five years (from 17.4mn in FY19 to 115.6mn
in FY24) registering a 46% CAGR. CDSL market share increased from 48.4% in FY19 to
76.4% in FY24, driven by the rise of discount brokers. At the industry level, the total
number of BO accounts reached 151mn in FY24 and despite the increase in the base,
there is no sign of slowing down. CDSL’s daily account addition for FY24 stood at 130K
accounts/day vs 10K accounts/day in FY19. The daily account addition at the COVID
peak in Oct-21 was at ~120K accounts/day and the current rate is above the COVID
peak. The monthly addition in Jan-24 was at 4.1mn accounts vs the COVID peak of
3.1mn accounts, and the March-24 exit is at 2.8mn which is still strong. CDSL has
maintained its incremental market share at 90% in 4QFY24, clearly dominating the
competition. BO accounts are the building block of the depository business and drive
growth in all segments of the depository business. Revenue per Demat has come down
from INR 106 in FY20 to INR 69 in FY24 due to higher growth in Demat accounts. We
believe the revenue per Demat will grow when the new investors onboarded in the last
2-3 years mature and start transacting/participating in the market.
CDSL has registered strong growth in BO account additions
140
116
120 105
96
100 88
83
73 78
80 69
63
56
60 46
40
40 29 33
23 26
18 19 20 21
20

0
1QFY20

2QFY20

3QFY20

4QFY20

1QFY21

2QFY21

3QFY21

4QFY21

1QFY22

2QFY22

3QFY22

4QFY22

1QFY23

2QFY23

3QFY23

4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24
Source: CDSL, HSIE Research

CDSL’s Demat account YoY growth rate has bounced BO account addition hit the peak in Jan-24, and March-
back in the last two quarters 24 exit was lower but in line with the last peak

4.5
BO accounts addition (mn)
4.1
4.0
3.5 3.1
2.9 2.8
3.0 2.6
2.4
2.5
1.8 2.0
2.0 1.4
1.5
1.5 1.1
1.0 0.5
0.5
0.0
Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23
Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23

Jan-24
May-20

Nov-20

May-21

Nov-21

May-22

Nov-22

May-23

Nov-23
Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22

Jul-23

Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

Page | 4
Central Depository Services (India) Ltd: Deep Dive

CDSL has witnessed consistent improvement in the BO CDSL has an incremental market share of 88.3% in
account market share FY24, and the four-year average is ~85%
80.0% 76.4%
100%
72.5% 97%
75.0%
68.9%
70.0% 95%
90%
65.0% 60.7% 87% 88% 88%
90% 88%
60.0% 85% 85%
53.7%
55.0% 85% 82%
81%
85%
50.0%
80%
45.0% 47.5% 79%
40.0% 75%
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24

4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24
Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

Revenue/demat has come down in the last five years Contribution from incremental demat accounts has
because of base expansion; new demat accounts have improved in FY24; contribution will improve as the
started to contribute gradually to the topline accounts mature

Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

Page | 5
Central Depository Services (India) Ltd: Deep Dive

High annuity income: linked to Demat account addition

CDSL derives ~32% of its revenue from issuer charges, which is a pure annuity income.
Apart from this, e-voting and e-CAS revenue is also recurring in nature; thus, the total
non-market linked revenue for CDSL is ~40% of revenue. The non-market linked
revenue has registered a CAGR of 37% during COVID-19 (FY20-23) vs 11% pre-COVID
(FY15-20). The annual issuer charges have a high correlation with the growth in the
number of Demat accounts. The issuers are charged based on the average number of
folios at the end of the financial year, and with an increase in Demat accounts, the folios
held by the depository also increase. The annual issuer charges see a major spike in Q1
and remain constant for the rest of the year. We expect issuer charges to register 26%
CAGR over FY23-26E, which is higher than the pre-COVID growth rate.

Annual issuer revenue (annuity revenue stream) has Annual issuer charges have increased at a 5Y CAGR of
witnessed consistent improvement; the folio base is reset 31% and account for 32% of total revenue
in Q1, and it almost constant for the full year
INR mn Annual Issuer Charges Annual Issuer Charges (INR mn) % of total revenue
653
640
630
630

700 3,000 50.0%

42.9% 2,553
600 2,500 32.0%
470
460
460

40.0%
452

500 29.6% 1,842

2,000
400 30.0%
295
290
288
281

1,500 1,154
221
217
216

300
208
196
195
192
192

861 20.0%
200 1,000 672 775
390 382 355 481 517 556
100 500 10.0%
0
0 0.0%
2QFY20

4QFY20

2QFY21

4QFY21

2QFY22

4QFY22

2QFY23

4QFY23

2QFY24

4QFY24E

FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

Annual issuer revenue is linked to an increase in BO Consistent rise in issuer companies has boosted issuer
accounts which aids increase in the number of folios income
Annual Issuer revenue growth YoY % No of Issuers (Nos)
23,060
100% 88% Nos 21,909
21,236
Demat account growth YoY %
20,759

24,000
20,323
20,253

80%
19,301
18,990

22,000
18,268

60%
17,748

58%
17,304
16,778

60%
16,569

20,000
16,135

39%
15,662
15,288

39%
14,762
14,709

36% 18,000
14,225

34% 32%
13,746

40% 21% 15%

7% 19% 18% 22% 16,000
15%
20% 9% 12% 8% 11% 14,000
4%
0% 12,000
-2% 10,000
-20% -7%
4QFY19

2QFY20

4QFY20

2QFY21

4QFY21

2QFY22

4QFY22

2QFY23

4QFY23

2QFY24

4QFY24
FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24E

Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

Page | 6
Central Depository Services (India) Ltd: Deep Dive

E-voting and e-CAS traction

The rapid increase in the number of Demat accounts has led to strong growth in
electronic consolidated accounts statements (CAS) and e-voting revenue (5Y CAGR of
35/37%, respectively). CDSL reports e-voting and eCAS under the others segment
(~11% of revenue), and growth in others revenue is solely driven by growth in e-voting
and eCAS revenue, excluding which the others segment growth CAGR is ~2% (over
the last five years). The rising number of Demat accounts supports growth in e-CAS
revenue. E-voting and eCAS contribute ~7% of total revenue and ~70% of others'
revenue.
Issuers are now adopting e-voting services for conducting AGMs. E-voting revenue
registered a strong jump in FY23 but will normalise in FY24E. The eCAS growth
continues to be strong and is linked to the growth in BO account growth and market
share gains.
E-voting revenue has grown at a 5Y CAGR of 37%, and e- CAS revenue has grown at a 5Y CAGR of 35%, and CAS
voting revenue/Issuer is ~INR 10.9K revenue/demat is INR 3.1
E-Voting charges (INR mn) % of revenue ECAS charges (INR mn) % of revenue
300 5.0% 400 5.1% 360 6.0%
239 244
250 350
4.0% 4.1% 4.5% 5.0%
300
200 2.9% 229 4.0%
3.0% 250
150 4.3% 200 162 4.1% 3.0%
1.6% 3.1%
90 2.0% 150 126
100 66 93 2.0%
51 100 75 80
42 41 37 64
50 1.0% 1.0%
50
0 0.0% 0 0.0%
FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24E

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24E
Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

Recovery in market-linked revenue led by transaction charges.

CDSL derives 49% of revenue from market-linked sources (transaction, IPO/corporate
action KYC etc). The market-linked has bounced back in FY24E, led by a ~36/76% rise
in transaction/IPO and corporate action revenue. The transaction revenue is cyclical
and has a high correlation with the growth in delivery trades. Based on historical data,
the correlation between transaction revenue growth and delivery volume growth is
0.6, which is very high. The delivery volume registered 49% YoY growth in FY24, the
best in the last five years. The share delivery volume has been improving over the last
three years and stands at 21% for FY24. Transaction revenue has recovered in FY24E,
and the transaction revenue has registered a YoY decline four times in the last ten
years. We expect a 10% CAGR over FY24-26E, which is in line with the pre-COVID
growth rate of 9% over FY15-20.

Page | 7
Central Depository Services (India) Ltd: Deep Dive

Transaction revenue has witnessed a strong recovery in Transaction revenue has a high correlation (r=0.7) with
the last four quarters delivery volume
Transaction revenue growth YoY %
Transaction revenue (INR mn)
200% Share delivery growth YoY %178%

714
800
700

590
150%

527
527
600

500
497
443

430
420
410
500 371

360
100% 67%

330
309

400
305

51% 45% 49%

300 42% 41% 31%
206

50% 21% 36%

26%
17%
129

10%
110

200 9%
99
92

100 0%
0 -9%-8% -3% -7%
-9% -11%-11%
-50% -20%
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24E

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24E
Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, NSE, HSIE Research

Transaction revenue bounced back in FY24E linked to Delivery volume strong growth reflected in the
improvement in market activity/sentiment transaction charges revenue
Transaction Charges (INR mn) % of total revenue
2,500 60.0%
2,164
1,995 50.0%
2,000
1,590 40.0%
1,500 1,191
30.0%
1,000
20.0%
440 393 429
500 218 199 283 258 312 10.0%

0 0.0%
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E

Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: NSE, HSIE Research

The share delivery % has been improving over the last Transaction revenue per demat has been stable over the
four years last two years, new accounts addition is driving growth

Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

Page | 8
Central Depository Services (India) Ltd: Deep Dive

CDSL revenue yearly trends and assumptions

CAGR CAGR CAGR
CDSL Revenue (INR mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
15-20 21-24E 24-26E
Annual Issuer Charges 355 481 517 556 672 775 861 1,154 1,842 2,553 3,186 3,719 17% 44% 21%
Growth % -7.3% 35.8% 7.4% 7.6% 20.7% 15.4% 11.1% 34.0% 59.6% 38.6% 24.8% 16.7%
% of Revenue 33.7% 39.2% 35.4% 29.6% 34.5% 34.4% 25.1% 20.9% 33.2% 32.0% 31.9% 31.8%
Transaction Charges 283 258 312 440 393 429 1,191 1,995 1,590 2,164 2,412 2,604 9% 22% 10%
Growth % 42.4% -8.8% 20.9% 40.9% -10.8% 9.2% 177.6% 67.5% -20.3% 36.1% 11.5% 7.9%
% of Revenue 26.9% 21.0% 21.4% 23.5% 20.2% 19.1% 34.7% 36.2% 28.6% 27.1% 24.2% 22.2%
IPO/Corporate action 62 107 165 295 199 226 329 606 500 880 968 1,099 30% 39% 12%
Growth % NM 72.8% 54.3% 78.5% -32.6% 13.5% 45.5% 84.4% -17.4% 76.0% 10.0% 13.5%
% of Revenue 5.9% 8.7% 11.3% 15.7% 10.2% 10.0% 9.6% 11.0% 9.0% 11.0% 9.7% 9.4%
Online Data Charges 147 154 187 292 317 369 560 1,199 870 1,513 2,148 2,495 20% 39% 28%
Growth % 64.1% 4.8% 21.9% 55.8% 8.5% 16.4% 51.8% 114.0% -27.4% 73.9% 42.0% 16.1%
% of Revenue 13.9% 12.5% 12.8% 15.5% 16.3% 16.4% 16.3% 21.7% 15.7% 19.0% 21.5% 21.3%
eCAS & e-voting 50 68 116 105 130 130 192 252 467 604 767 979 21% 47% 27%
Growth % NM 37.0% 71.3% -9.7% 23.8% -0.5% 48.2% 31.4% 85.2% 29.2% 26.9% 27.7%
% of Revenue 4.7% 5.5% 8.0% 5.6% 6.7% 5.8% 5.6% 4.6% 8.4% 7.6% 7.7% 8.4%
Others 157 160 161 188 236 322 304 308 281 264 502 809 16% -5% 75%
Growth % -28.3% 2.1% 0.8% 16.7% 25.4% 36.4% -5.6% 1.2% -8.8% -6.1% 90.0% 61.4%
% of Revenue 14.9% 13.0% 11.1% 10.0% 12.1% 14.3% 8.9% 5.6% 5.1% 3.3% 5.0% 6.9%
Total 1,053 1,229 1,460 1,877 1,947 2,251 3,437 5,513 5,551 7,978 9,983 11,705 16% 32% 21%
Growth % 18.4% 16.7% 18.8% 28.6% 3.7% 15.6% 52.7% 60.4% 0.7% 43.7% 25.1% 17.3%

Market linked 497 522 826 1,215 1,145 1,346 2,384 4,107 3,241 4,821 5,712 6,502 22% 26% 16%
% of Revenue 47.2% 42.5% 56.6% 64.8% 58.8% 59.8% 69.4% 74.5% 58.4% 60.4% 57.2% 55.6%
YoY % 40.8% 5.1% 58.2% 47.1% -5.8% 17.6% 77.1% 72.3% -21.1% 48.7% 18.5% 13.8%

Non-Market Linked 404 549 634 661 802 904 1,053 1,406 2,310 3,157 4,270 5,202 17% 44% 28%
% of Revenue 38.4% 44.7% 43.4% 35.2% 41.2% 40.2% 30.6% 25.5% 41.6% 39.6% 42.8% 44.4%
YoY % 5.7% 35.9% 15.3% 4.4% 21.2% 12.8% 16.4% 33.5% 64.2% 36.7% 35.3% 21.8%
Source: Company, HSIE research

CDSL Costing CAGR CAGR CAGR

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Analysis (INR mn) 15-20 21-24E 24-26E

Employee Cost 192 215 249 303 342 473 413 505 810 927 1,075 1,196 20% 31% 14%
Growth % 10.0% 11.9% 15.7% 22.0% 12.7% 38.3% 20.9% 22.3% 60.2% 14.4% 16.0% 11.3%
% of Revenue 18.2% 17.5% 17.0% 16.2% 17.6% 21.0% 12.0% 9.2% 14.6% 11.6% 10.8% 10.2%
% of Total Cost 31.9% 36.5% 37.3% 39.2% 39.9% 40.5% 31.3% 27.4% 34.9% 29.5% 28.8% 28.5%
IT Cost 79 79 84 97 116 145 199 264 384 590 708 850 13% 44% 20%
Growth % -1.0% -0.2% 7.1% 15.2% 19.9% 24.4% 71.1% 32.7% 45.3% 53.8% 20.0% 20.0%
% of Revenue 7.5% 6.4% 5.8% 5.2% 6.0% 6.4% 5.8% 4.8% 6.9% 7.4% 7.1% 7.3%
% of Total Cost 13.1% 13.3% 12.7% 12.5% 13.6% 12.4% 15.1% 14.3% 16.6% 18.8% 19.0% 20.2%
Other cost 207 238 251 286 306 440 559 852 864 1,241 1,449 1,572 16% 30% 13%
Growth % 15.6% 15.3% 5.3% 14.0% 7.1% 43.5% 82.4% 52.5% 1.4% 43.7% 16.7% 8.5%
% of Revenue 19.6% 19.4% 17.2% 15.2% 15.7% 19.5% 16.3% 15.5% 15.6% 15.6% 14.5% 13.4%
% of Total Cost 34.4% 40.4% 37.7% 37.0% 35.7% 37.7% 42.4% 46.2% 37.3% 39.6% 38.8% 37.4%
Regulatory cost 123 57 82 87 93 110 148 223 260 380 499 585 -2% 37% 24%
Growth % -4.4% -53.4% 42.5% 5.8% 6.8% 18.3% 59.5% 51.1% 16.5% 46.2% 31.4% 17.3%
% of Revenue 11.7% 4.7% 5.6% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 4.3% 4.0% 4.7% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0%
% of Net Profit 22.1% 9.9% 9.5% 8.4% 8.2% 8.7% 7.4% 7.2% 9.4% 9.3% 9.6% 9.5%
Total Cost 601 589 666 773 857 1,167 1,319 1,845 2,317 3,138 3,732 4,204 14% 34% 16%
Growth % 6.9% -2.0% 13.0% 16.1% 10.9% 36.1% 53.9% 39.9% 25.6% 35.4% 18.9% 12.6%
EBITDA 452 639 794 1,104 1,089 1,084 2,118 3,669 3,233 4,840 6,251 7,501 19% 32% 24%
Growth % 38.1% 41.5% 24.3% 39.0% -1.3% -0.5% 94.5% 73.2% -11.9% 49.7% 29.2% 20.0%
EBITDA Margin % 42.9% 52.0% 54.4% 58.8% 56.0% 48.2% 61.6% 66.5% 58.3% 60.7% 62.6% 64.1% 525 -97 342
Source: Company, HSIE research

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Central Depository Services (India) Ltd: Deep Dive

Change in estimates (consolidated)

FY24E FY24E Change FY25E FY25E Change FY26E FY26E Change

INR Mn
Old Revised % Old Revised % Old Revised %

Revenue 7,901 7,978 1.0 9,358 9,983 6.7 10,855 11,705 7.8
EBITDA 4,775 4,840 1.3 5,775 6,251 8.3 6,813 7,501 10.1
EBITDA
60.4 60.7 22bps 61.7 62.6 91bps 62.8 64.1 133bps
margin (%)
APAT 4,038 4,087 1.2 4,854 5,194 7.0 5,667 6,166 8.8
EPS (INR) 38.6 39.1 1.2 46.4 49.7 7.0 54.2 59.0 8.8
Source: Company, HSIE research

Peer Valuation
EPS (INR) P/E (x) ROE (%) Rev EPS
MCap CMP TP
Company CAGR% CAGR%
(INR bn) (INR) (INR) RECO FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
FY24-26E FY24-26E
MCX 190 3,732 4,100 BUY 29.3 21.7 95.6 124.7 127.5 172.0 39.0 29.9 10.3 7.5 31.4 37.0 28.6% 35.3%
CDSL 195 1,866 2,360 BUY 26.4 39.1 49.7 59.0 70.7 47.7 37.6 31.6 23.9 31.5 35.1 36.1 21.1% 22.8%
BSE 371 2,746 3,100 BUY 21.3 41.2 64.9 82.8 128.6 66.6 42.3 33.2 10.8 19.1 27.3 31.7 33.5% 41.8%
Source: Company, HSIE research

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Central Depository Services (India) Ltd: Deep Dive

Financials
Income Statement (Consolidated)
YE March (INR mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Net Revenues 1,947 2,251 3,437 5,513 5,551 7,978 9,983 11,705
Growth (%) 3.7 15.6 52.7 60.4 0.7 43.7 25.1 17.3
Employee Expenses 342 473 413 505 810 927 1,075 1,196
Other operating Expenses 515 694 906 1,339 1,508 2,212 2,657 3,007
EBITDA 1,089 1,084 2,118 3,669 3,233 4,840 6,251 7,501
EBITDA Margin (%) 56.0 48.2 61.6 66.5 58.3 60.7 62.6 64.1
EBITDA Growth (%) (1.3) (0.5) 95.5 73.2 (11.9) 49.7 29.2 20.0
Depreciation 99 117 92 115 195 262 284 311
EBIT 990 966 2,026 3,554 3,039 4,578 5,967 7,190
EBIT Margin (%) 50.9 42.9 59.0 64.5 54.7 57.4 59.8 61.4
Other Income (Including EO Items) 492 398 569 546 658 899 939 998
Interest 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
PBT 1,482 1,364 2,595 4,100 3,696 5,476 6,905 8,188
Tax (Incl Deferred) 334 297 583 967 892 1,349 1,669 1,979
Minority Interest 13 6 9 6 0 0 0 0
Share of profit / (Loss) of associate 0 0 0 -14 -44 -41 -41 -42
RPAT 1,135 1,062 2,003 3,112 2,759 4,087 5,194 6,166
EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) 0 -193 0 0 0 0 0 0
APAT 1,135 1,255 2,003 3,112 2,759 4,087 5,194 6,166
APAT Growth (%) 10.0 10.6 59.6 55.3 (11.3) 48.1 27.1 18.7
Adjusted EPS (Rs) 10.9 12.0 19.2 29.8 26.4 39.1 49.7 59.0
EPS Growth (%) 10.0 10.6 59.6 55.3 (11.3) 48.1 27.1 18.7

Balance Sheet (Consolidated)

YE March (INR mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Share Capital - Equity 1,045 1,045 1,045 1,045 1,045 1,045 1,045 1,045
Reserves 5,636 6,195 7,727 9,884 11,092 12,727 14,804 17,271
Total Shareholders’ Funds 6,681 7,240 8,772 10,929 12,137 13,772 15,849 18,316
Settlement guarantee fund
Minority Interest 413 419 428 434 434 434 435 435
Lease Liabilities 0 0 1 12 12 12 12
Total Debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Deferred Taxes (Net) -33 10 23 58 46 46 46 46
Long Term Provisions & Others 10 39 26 86 110 110 110 110
TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 7,071 7,708 9,248 11,509 12,739 14,374 16,452 18,918
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Net Block 752 743 734 1,062 1,246 1,304 1,418 1,576
CWIP 0 0 228 38 1,743 1,743 1,743 1,743
LT Loans & Advances & Others 243 309 158 223 342 491 614 720
Total Non-current Assets 995 1,052 1,120 1,323 3,330 3,537 3,776 4,039
Debtors 191 260 237 458 377 429 537 629
Other Current Assets 89 128 311 161 260 374 468 548
Cash & Equivalents 6,530 7,183 9,171 11,313 10,602 12,189 14,197 16,587
Total Current Assets 6,810 7,571 9,719 11,933 11,239 12,992 15,202 17,764
Creditors 36 121 127 106 196 206 258 302
Other Current Liabilities & Provns 698 795 1,464 1,641 1,634 1,949 2,268 2,583
Total Current Liabilities 734 915 1,591 1,747 1,830 2,155 2,526 2,885
Net Current Assets 6,076 6,656 8,128 10,186 9,409 10,837 12,676 14,879
TOTAL APPLICATION OF
7,071 7,708 9,248 11,509 12,739 14,374 16,452 18,918
FUNDS

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Central Depository Services (India) Ltd: Deep Dive

Cash Flow (Consolidated)

YE March (INR mn) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Reported PBT 1,482 1,364 2,595 4,085 3,652 5,436 6,863 8,145
Non-operating & EO items (415) (433) (496) (399) (470) (899) (939) (998)
Interest expenses - (0) 0 0 1 (1) (1) (1)
Depreciation 99 119 94 116 195 262 284 311
Working Capital Change 25 11 312 33 43 10 46 80
Tax Paid (336) (240) (579) (1,002) (932) (1,349) (1,669) (1,979)
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 854 821 1,926 2,834 2,488 3,458 4,584 5,558
Capex (112) (93) (180) (250) (2,081) (319) (399) (468)
Free cash flow (FCF) 742 729 1,745 2,584 407 3,138 4,184 5,090
Investments - - - - - - - -
Non-operating Income 359 133 122 193 134 899 939 998
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) 247 41 (59) (57) (1,947) 580 540 530
Debt Issuance/(Repaid) - (1) (1) (1) 19 - - -
Interest Expenses - - - - - 1 1 1
FCFE 742 727 1,744 2,583 427 3,140 4,186 5,091
Share Capital Issuance - - - - - - - -
Dividend (441) (504) (470) (941) (1,568) (2,452) (3,116) (3,700)
FINANCING CASH FLOW (c) (441) (505) (472) (942) (1,548) (2,451) (3,115) (3,699)
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 660 357 1,395 1,835 (1,007) 1,587 2,008 2,389
EO Items, Others 239 297 593 307 295 0 0 0
Closing Cash & Equivalents 6,530 7,183 9,171 11,313 10,602 12,189 14,197 16,587

Key Ratios
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
PROFITABILITY (%)
GPM 82.4 79.0 88.0 90.8 85.4 88.4 89.2 89.8
EBITDA Margin 56.0 48.2 61.6 66.5 58.3 60.7 62.6 64.1
APAT Margin 58.3 55.8 58.3 56.4 49.7 51.2 52.0 52.7
RoE 17.9 18.0 25.0 31.6 23.9 31.5 35.1 36.1
RoIC (or Core RoCE) 60.7 55.7 101.1 150.4 78.0 83.1 99.2 109.1
RoCE 17.2 17.0 23.6 30.0 22.8 30.2 33.7 34.9
EFFICIENCY
Tax Rate (%) 22.5% 21.8% 22.4% 23.6% 24.1% 24.6% 24.2% 24.2%
Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 2.0 2.1 3.0 3.5 2.9 3.6 3.8 3.8
Inventory (days) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Debtors (days) 36 42 25 30 25 20 20 20
Other Current Assets (days) 17 21 33 11 17 17 17 17
Payables (days) 7 20 13 7 13 9 9 9
Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 131 129 156 109 107 89 83 81
Cash Conversion Cycle (days) -85 -85 -111 -75 -78 -62 -56 -53
Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net D/E (x) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (0.9) (0.9) (0.9) (0.9)
Interest Coverage (x) NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
PER SHARE DATA (Rs)
EPS 10.9 12.0 19.2 29.8 26.4 39.1 49.7 59.0
CEPS 11.8 13.1 20.1 30.9 28.3 41.6 52.4 62.0
Dividend 3.5 4.8 4.5 9.0 15.0 23.5 29.8 35.4
Book Value 63.9 69.3 83.9 104.6 116.1 131.8 151.7 175.3
VALUATION
P/E (x) 173.6 157.0 98.4 63.3 71.4 48.2 37.9 32.0
P/BV (x) 29.5 27.2 22.5 18.0 16.2 14.3 12.4 10.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 174.9 175.2 88.7 50.6 57.7 38.2 29.3 24.1
OCF/EV (%) 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.1
FCF/EV (%) 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.4 0.2 1.7 2.3 2.8
FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.2 1.6 2.1 2.6
Dividend Yield (%) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9
Source: Company, HSIE Research

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Central Depository Services (India) Ltd: Deep Dive

1 Yr Price movement
CDSL
2200

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000 Rating Criteria

800 BUY: >+15% return potential
ADD: +5% to +15% return potential
Apr-23

May-23

Mar-24

Apr-24
Aug-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Feb-24
Sep-23

Oct-23

Nov-23
Jun-23

Jul-23

REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential

SELL: > 10% Downside return potential

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Central Depository Services (India) Ltd: Deep Dive

Disclosure:
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Central Depository Services (India) Ltd: Deep Dive

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