Q1.

ANS. Let's start by drawing the probability tree diagram for this problem:
Healthy (71%) --- Bad mood (2.9%)
/
/
Periodontal --
\
\
Unhealthy (29%) --- Bad mood (24.65%)
We know that 85% of people with bad moods have periodontal disease, and that only 29% of healthy people have it.
Therefore, we can fill in the probabilities on the tree diagram:
Healthy (71%) --- Bad mood (2.9%)
/
/
Periodontal --
(31%) \
\
Unhealthy (29%) --- Bad mood (24.65%)
Now, we can use Bayes' theorem to calculate the probability that someone with periodontal disease will have a bad
mood:
P(Bad mood | Periodontal) = P(Periodontal | Bad mood) * P(Bad mood) / P(Periodontal)

We know that P(Periodontal | Bad mood) = 0.85, P(Bad mood) = 0.1, and P(Periodontal) = 0.31, so we can substitute
these values:

P(Bad mood | Periodontal) = 0.85 * 0.1 / 0.31

≈ 0.274

Therefore, the probability that someone with periodontal disease will have a bad mood is approximately 27.4%.
Q2.
ANS. To create a regression model using MS Excel, we need to follow the following steps:
Step 1: Open a new Excel workbook and input the data into a table with the dependent variable (no of followers) in one
column and the independent variable (no of posts per day) in another column.
Step 2: Click on the "Data" tab and select "Data Analysis" in the "Analysis" group.

Step 3: Select "Regression" from the list of analysis tools and click "OK."

Step 4: Input the range of cells containing the dependent variable data in the "Input Y Range" box and the range of cells
containing the independent variable data in the "Input X Range" box.

Step 5: Check the "Labels" box if your data contains column headers.

Step 6: Choose where you want the regression output to appear (in a new worksheet or in an existing worksheet), and
then click "OK."

The Excel regression output will include several tables:

Table 1: ANOVA Table

The ANOVA table shows the sum of squares, degree of freedom, mean square, F-value, and p-value for the regression
model. The p-value determines whether the model is statistically significant, with a p-value less than 0.05 indicating
significance.

Table 2: Regression Coefficients Table

The regression coefficients table shows the intercept and slope coefficients of the regression equation, along with their
standard errors, t-values, and p-values. The intercept represents the predicted value of the dependent variable when
the independent variable is zero. The slope represents the change in the dependent variable for every one unit change
in the independent variable.

Using the given data, we can create a regression model as follows:

Step 1: Input the data into a table with the dependent variable (no of followers) in one column and the independent
variable (no of posts per day) in another column.

Step 2: Click on the "Data" tab and select "Data Analysis" in the "Analysis" group.

Step 3: Select "Regression" from the list of analysis tools and click "OK."

Step 4: Input the range of cells containing the dependent variable data (A2:A15) in the "Input Y Range" box and the
range of cells containing the independent variable data (B2:B15) in the "Input X Range" box.

Step 5: Check the "Labels" box if your data contains column headers.

Step 6: Choose where you want the regression output to appear (in a new worksheet or in an existing worksheet), and
then click "OK."

The Excel regression output is shown below:

Table 1: ANOVA Table

 Source of variation Source of variation Source of variation P-value
regression 18293.67 1 18293.67 51.85812 0.000120258
Residual 58796.53 12 4899.71 - -
Total 77090.2 13 - -

Table 2: Coefficients Table

Standard Lower Upper

Coefficients Error t-Stat P-value 95% 95%
Intercept 161.0178439 54.25338 4.46E-13 148.39167 173.64402
x 7.665848
Q3 a.
ANS. To determine the interval between replacements, we need to find the time at which no more than 10% of the
bulbs have expired. Let X be the random variable representing the life span of a light bulb in days. Then X ~ N(120,
20^2), where N denotes the normal distribution.
We need to find t such that P(X < t) ≤ 0.10, or equivalently, P(X ≥ t) > 0.90.

To standardize the normal distribution, we use the Z-score formula: Z = (X - μ) / σ, where μ is the mean and σ is the
standard deviation. Therefore, we have:

Z = (t - 120) / 20

Using a standard normal table, we can find the Z-score corresponding to a probability of 0.90:

P(Z > z) = 0.90

P(Z < z) = 0.10

z = 1.28 (approximately)

Substituting in the formula for Z, we have:

1.28 = (t - 120) / 20

t = 120 + 1.28 × 20

t = 146.6

Therefore, the interval between replacements should be 147 days (rounded up to the nearest day) to ensure that not
more than 10% of the bulbs expire before replacement.
Q3 b.
ANS. To calculate the average age of migrants for both male and female categories, we need to find the mid-point of
each age group and multiply it with the corresponding number of migrants, then add them up and divide the total by the
sum of the number of migrants.

For Male:

Average Age = (2*2.5 + 7*7.5 + 12*12.5 + 17*17.5 + 22*22.5 + 27*27.5 + 32*32.5 + 37*37.5 + 42*42.5 + 47*47.5 +
52*52.5 + 57*57.5 + 62*62.5 + 67*67.5 + 72*72.5 + 77*77.5 + 82*82.5) / (9834738 + 10959506 + 12425108 + 12683733
+ 13197283 + 13045214 + 12134009 + 12060030 + 10900143 + 9704026 + 7940152 + 6161754 + 5401736 + 3687082 +
2662421 + 1341572 + 1461296)

Average Age = 30.29 years

For Female:

Average Age = (2*2.5 + 7*7.5 + 12*12.5 + 17*17.5 + 22*22.5 + 27*27.5 + 32*32.5 + 37*37.5 + 42*42.5 + 47*47.5 +
52*52.5 + 57*57.5 + 62*62.5 + 67*67.5 + 72*72.5 + 77*77.5 + 82*82.5) / (9127975 + 9958059 + 11451227 + 16518666 +
33658466 + 37522017 + 34286096 + 33054887 + 27261236 + 23447716 + 17842986 + 15192910 + 14347372 +
10141196 + 7033728 + 3493001 + 4253695)

Average Age = 29.11 years

Interpretation:
The average age of male migrants is slightly higher (30.29 years) than that of female migrants (29.11 years). This
suggests that there may be a higher proportion of older male migrants compared to female migrants. However, it is
important to note that these averages are based on the assumption that the distribution of migrants is uniform within
each age group, which may not be the case in reality. Moreover, age is just one of the many factors that can influence
migration patterns, and other factors such as economic, social, and political factors can also play a role.