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Case 10. IMC Project

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
23 views

Case 10. IMC Project

Uploaded by

JACK Nguyễn
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 20

Appendix A: Base Variables

PART A: GENERAL VARIABLES AND CONVERSIONS

General Variables Conversions


Percentage ownership of JV by GOI 30% Number of pounds per ton 2205
Cost of equity (real) 10% Number of ounces per kilogram 32
Social discount rate 6% Number of kilograms per ton 1000
Opportunity cost of unskilled labour as % of minimum wage 20% Exchange rate (Value in Rp of US$1) 2.5
% of income as 'contractors margin' earned as rent 25%
Import duty charged (for calculations of import market prices) 10%
Royalty rate on fob value of sales 2% Metal prices
Key for Company tax holiday for first 10 years (1=no tax holiday, 0=tax holiday) 1 Copper price (in $US per pound) 1.25
Company tax rate 30% Gold price (in $US per ounce) 290
Silver price (in $US per ounce) 5

PART B: INVESTMENT COSTS

PART B.1: INITIAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

Initial Capital Expenditure (in Rp000's) Market Prices (in Rp000's) Efficiency prices (in Rp000's) Comments
Imports 2,108,769 1,917,063 * Subject to 10% importy duty ad valorem
Local Materials - Locally manufactured materials 240,033 240,033
Local Materials - Contractors margins 55,392 41,544 * 25% of market price is contractor margin
Local Materials - local skilled labour 18,464 18,464
Local Materials - local unskilled labour 55,392 11,078 * Opp cost of unskilled labour is 20%
Labour - Expatriate salaries 260,625 260,625
Labour - Local managerial/professional wages 65,156 65,156
Labour - local skilled 195,469 195,469
Labour - local unskilled 130,313 26,063 * Opp cost of unskilled labour is 20%
TOTAL - Initial Capital Expenditure 3,129,613 2,775,495

Details of Initial Capital Expenditure (2003-2005) provided in Table 1


Imports (US$000s) Local Materials (in Rp000's) Labour (in Rp000's)
Roads 11,800 48,750 81,250
Buildings 3,800 17,000 14,875
Wharf 3,275 6,750 6,750
Airstrip 950 2,656 5,313
Power Supplies 73,000 28,750 57,500
Facilities 18,000 75,000 125,000
Mining Equipment 470,000 71,875 71,875
Milling Equipment 83,000 27,000 13,500
Logistics Equipment 92,500 37,500 75,000
Other Equipment 5,500 7,500 7,500
Construction 5,000 30,000 105,000
Excavation 0 16,500 88,000
TOTAL in initial currency 766,825 369,281 651,563
TOTAL in Rp000's 1,917,063 369,281 651,563 1.25 US$ billion

Local Materials Composition Labour Composition


Locally manufactured materials 65% Expatriate salaries 40%
Contractors margins 15% Local managerial/professional wages 10%
Local skilled Labour 5% Local skilled 30%
Local unskilled Labour 15% Local unskilled 20%

Composition of Investment over Years


2003 25%
2004 45%
2005 30%

PART B.2: REPLACEMENT CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

Year 2009 Year 2009 Year 2013 Year 2013 Year 2017 Year 2017
Replacement Capital Expenditure (in Rp000's) Market Prices (in Rp000's) Efficiency prices (in Rp000's) Market Prices (in Rp000's) Efficiency prices (in Rp000's) Market Prices (in Rp000's) Efficiency prices (in Rp000's) Comments
Imports 18,183 16,530 22,726 20,660 13,637 12,398 * Subject to 10% importy duty ad valorem
Local Materials - Locally manufactured materials 8125 8125 16250 16250 8125 8125
Local Materials - Contractors margins 1875 1,406 3750 2,813 1875 1,406 * 25% of market price is contractor margin
Local Materials - local skilled labour 625 625 1250 1250 625 625
Local Materials - local unskilled labour 1875 375 3750 750 1875 375 * Opp cost of unskilled labour is 20%
Labour - Expatriate salaries 5000 5000 7500 7500 5000 5000
Labour - Local managerial/professional wages 1250 1250 1875 1875 1250 1250
Labour - local skilled 3750 3750 5625 5625 3750 3750
Labour - local unskilled 2500 500 3750 750 2500 500 * Opp cost of unskilled labour is 20%
TOTAL - Replacement Capital Expenditure 43,183 37,561 66,476 57,473 38,637 33,429

Details of Replacement Capital Expenditure (2009-2017) provided in Table 2


Item 2009 2013 2017
Imported Equipment (in $US000's) 6,612 8,264 4,959
Local Materials (in Rp000's) 12,500 25,000 12,500
Installation (in Rp000's) 12,500 18,750 12,500
Imported Equipment (in Rp000's) 16,530 20,660 12,398
Total (in Rp000's) 41,530 64,410 37,398

Local Materials Composition Installation Composition (Labour)


Locally manufactured materials 65% Expatriate salaries 40%
Contractors margins 15% Local managerial/professional wages 10%

Page 1 of 20
Appendix A: Base Variables

Local skilled Labour 5% Local skilled 30%


Local unskilled Labour 15% Local unskilled 20%

PART B.3: WORKING CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

Year 2004 Year 2004 Year 2005 Year 2005 Year 2020 Year 2020
Working Capital Expenditure (in Rp000's) Market Prices (in Rp000's) Efficiency prices (in Rp000's) Market Prices (in Rp000's) Efficiency prices (in Rp000's) Market Prices (in Rp000's) Efficiency prices (in Rp000's) Comments
Imported Equipment 18,150 16,500 30,000 27,273 -48,150 -43,773 * Subject to 10% importy duty ad valorem
Fuel 8,751 7,955 17,501 15,910 -26,252 -23,865 * Subject to 10% importy duty ad valorem
Local Materials - Locally manufactured materials 813 813 1,625 1,625 -2,438 -2,438
Local Materials - Contractors margins 188 141 375 281 -563 -422 * 25% of market price is contractor margin
Local Materials - local skilled labour 63 63 125 125 -188 -188
Local Materials - local unskilled labour 188 38 375 75 -563 -113 * Opp cost of unskilled labour is 20%
Total (in Rp000's) 28,151 25,508 50,001 45,289 -78,151 -70,797

Composition of Additions to Working Capital provided in Table 3


2004 2005
Imported Equipment (in US$000's) 6,600 10,909
Fuel (in US$000's) 3,182 6,364
Local Materials (in Rp000's) 1,250 2,500
Imported Equipment (in Rp000's) 16,500 27,273
Fuel (in Rp000's) 7,955 15,910
Total (in Rp000's) 25,705 45,683
Composition of Local Materials
Working Capital Composition (approximate only - not used in calcs) Locally manufactured materials 65%
Imported Equipment Spares 60% Contractors margins 15%
Fuel Supplies 35% Local skilled Labour 5%
Local Materials 5% Local unskilled Labour 15%

PART B.4: SALVAGE VALUES

Salvage Percentages Local Materials Composition Labour Composition


Mine & Mill Salvage value 10% Locally manufactured materials 65% Expatriate salaries 40%
Off-site infrastructure Salvage value 30% Contractors margins 15% Local managerial/professional wages 10%
Logistic & Other Equipment Salvage Value 20% Local skilled Labour 5% Local skilled 30%
Local unskilled Labour 15% Local unskilled 20%

Details of Initial Capital Expenditure (2003-2005) provided in Table 1


Imports (US$000s) Local Materials (in Rp000's) Labour (in Rp000's)
Roads 11,800 48,750 81,250
Buildings 3,800 17,000 14,875
Wharf 3,275 6,750 6,750
Airstrip 950 2,656 5,313
Power Supplies 73,000 28,750 57,500
Facilities 18,000 75,000 125,000
Mining Equipment 470,000 71,875 71,875
Milling Equipment 83,000 27,000 13,500
Logistics Equipment 92,500 37,500 75,000
Other Equipment 5,500 7,500 7,500
Construction 5,000 30,000 105,000
Excavation 0 16,500 88,000

Values of Capital in 3 salvage categories Imports (US$000s) Local Materials (in Rp000's) Labour (in Rp000's) Imports (in Rp000's)
Mine & Mill Value 553,000 98,875 85,375 1,382,500
Off-site infrastructure 115,825 208,906 395,688 289,563
Logistics and other equipment 98,000 45,000 82,500 245,000

Salvage Values Market Prices (in Rp000's) Efficiency prices (in Rp000's) Comments
Mine & Mill - imports 152,075 138,250 * Subject to 10% importy duty ad valorem
Mine & Mill - local materials - locally manufactured 6,427 6,427
Mine & Mill - local materials - contractors margins 1,483 1,112 * 25% of market price is contractor margin
Mine & Mill - local materials - local skilled labour 494 494
Mine & Mill - local materials - local unskilled labour 1,483 297 * Opp cost of unskilled labour is 20%
Mine & Mill - labour - expatriate salaries 3,415 3,415
Mine & Mill - labour - local managerial/prof 854 854
Mine & Mill - labour - local skilled 2,561 2,561
Mine & Mill - labour - local unskilled 1,708 342 * Opp cost of unskilled labour is 20%
Offsite infrastructure - imports 95,556 86,869 * Subject to 10% importy duty ad valorem
Offsite infrastructure - local materials - locally manufactured 40,737 40,737
Offsite infrastructure- local materials - contractors margins 9,401 7,051 * 25% of market price is contractor margin
Offsite infrastructure - local materials - local skilled labour 3,134 3,134
Offsite infrastructure - local materials - local unskilled labour 9,401 1,880 * Opp cost of unskilled labour is 20%
Offsite infrastructure - labour - expatriate salaries 47,483 47,483
Offsite infrastructure - labour - local managerial/prof 11,871 11,871
Offsite infrastructure - labour - local skilled 35,612 35,612
Offsite infrastructure - labour - local unskilled 23,741 4,748 * Opp cost of unskilled labour is 20%
Logistics/Other Equipment - imports 53,900 49,000 * Subject to 10% importy duty ad valorem
Logistics/Other Equipment - local materials - locally manufactured 5,850 5,850
Logistics/Other Equipment - local materials - contractors margins 1,350 1,013 * 25% of market price is contractor margin
Logistics/Other Equipment - local materials - local skilled labour 450 450
Logistics/Other Equipment - local materials - local unskilled labour 1,350 270 * Opp cost of unskilled labour is 20%
Logistics/Other Equipment - labour - expatriate salaries 6,600 6,600
Logistics/Other Equipment- labour - local managerial/prof 1,650 1,650
Logistics/Other Equipment - labour - local skilled 4,950 4,950

Page 2 of 20
Appendix A: Base Variables

Logistics/Other Equipment - labour - local unskilled 3,300 660 * Opp cost of unskilled labour is 20%
Total - salvage value from initial cost 526,834 463,577

PART B.5: DEPRECIATION ALLOWANCES

Depreciation of Initial Capital


Period for depreciation (in years) 15
Starting year for depreciation of initial investment 2006
Initial investment value in 2006 (in Rp000's, using market values) 3,129,613 * Calculated in part B.1
Final salvage value in 2020 (in Rp000's) 0 Assume zero, not salvage value
Per year depreciation (using straight line method) 208,641

Depreciation of Replacement Capital


Period for depreciation (in years) 3
Salvage value 0
Replacement capital value in 2009 (in Rp000's, market value) 43,183 * Calculated in part B.2
Per year depreciation (using straight line method) for 2010-2012 14,394
Replacement capital value in 2013 (in Rp000's, market value) 66,476 * Calculated in part B.2
Per year depreciation (using straight line method) for 2014-2016 22,159
Replacement capital value in 2017 (in Rp000's, market value) 38,637 * Calculated in part B.2
Per year depreciation (using straight line method for 2018-2020 12,879

PART B.6: REHABILITATION COSTS

Rehabilitation Cost (in Rp000's) 625,000 625000


Year of rehabilitation 2020
Annual real interest rate of sinking fund 7%
Starting year for operating expenses for tax purposes 2006
Number of years for sinking fund 15
Annual periodic payment into sinking fund -24872

PART C: PROJECT OUTPUT

PART C.1: MINING OUTPUT

Output Capacity Extraction Details


Output in Year 2006 (as percentage of full capacity) 25% Full capacity material extraction (in tons) 85,000,000
Output in Year 2007 (as percentage of full capacity) 50% Ore composition - Ore percentage 40%
Output in Year 2008 (as percentage of full capacity) 75% Ore composition - Waste percentage 60%
Output in Year 2009 (as percentage of full capacity) 100% Concentrate percentage in ore 2.0%
Percentage of copper in concentrate (by weight) 30%
Calculations: (in full capacity output) Percentage of gold in concentrate (by weight) 0.0025%
Ore tonnage (in tons) 34,000,000 Percentage of silver in concentrate (by weight) 0.0040%
Waste tonnage (in tons) 51,000,000
Concentrate tonnage (in tons) 680,000
Copper weight (in tons) 204,000
Copper weight (in lbs) 449,742,480
Gold weight (in tons) 17
Gold weight (in ounces) 546,562
Silver weight (in tons) 27
Silver weight (in ounces) 874,499
Value of refined copper (in US$) 562,178,100
Value of gold (in US$) 158,502,951
Value of silver (in US$) 4,372,495
Total value of metals (in US$) 725,053,546
Total value of metals (in Rp000's) 1,812,634

PART C.2: COMMUNITY BENEFITS

Estimates from Expert


Percentage of annual overhead expenditure on Utilities & Community Services 30%
Value of annual overhead expenditure on Utilities & Community Services (in Rp1000's) 110,000
Value of additional benefit to offsite community (in Rp000's) 33,000

PART D: OPERATING COSTS

PART D.1: OVERHEAD COSTS

Composition of Overhead Costs provided in Table 4


Annual Overhead Costs (all in Rp000's) Expatriate Wages Local Skilled Local Unskilled Local Materials TOTAL
Administration 45,500 6,500 3,250 9,750 75,000
Management 49,500 5,500 - - 35,000
Transport & Engineering 54,000 27,000 13,500 40,500 15,000
Maintenance 18,000 7,500 1,500 3,000 410,000
Utilities 15,000 30,000 15,000 15,000 -
Community Services 3,500 7,000 14,000 10,500 -
Other - 3,000 3,000 9,000 100
TOTAL of annual overhead costs 185,500 86,500 50,250 87,750 535,100

Level of All Overhead Costs Attributed to new mining operating 50%

Annual Insurance Costs Market prices Efficiency Prices (in Rp000's)


Increase in Insurance Premium (pa) in $US000's 100 Local Materials Composition
Increase in Insurance Premium (pa) in Rp000's 250 250 Locally manufactured materials 65%

Page 3 of 20
Appendix A: Base Variables

Contractors margins 15%


Annual Compensation Costs Market prices (in Rp000's) Efficiency Prices (in Rp000's) Local skilled Labour 5%
Annual compensation cost (from 2006 onwards) in Rp000's 30,000 15,000 Local unskilled Labour 15%
Compensation level compared to opportunity cost 2

Overhead Costs Summary (assume from 2004) Market prices (in Rp000's) Efficiency Prices (in Rp000's) Comments

Expatriate Wages 92,750 92,750


Local Skilled Labour 43,250 43,250
Local Unskilled Labour 25,125 5,025 * Opp cost of unskilled labour is 20%
Local Materials - Locally manufactured materials 28,519 28,519
Local Materials - Contractors margins 6,581 4,936 * 25% of market price is contractor margin
Local Materials - local skilled labour 2,194 2,194
Local Materials - local unskilled labour 6,581 1,316 * Opp cost of unskilled labour is 20%
Total - overhead costs 205,000 177,990

PART D.2: MINING/MILLING COSTS

Composition of Mining and Milling Costs provided in Table 5


Mining and Milling Operating Costs Imports (US$000's) Imports (in Rp000's) Local Materials (in Rp000's) Expatriate Labour (in Rp000's) Skilled Labour (in Rp000's) Unskilled Labour (in Rp000's)
Mining - Fixed Cost 10,455 26,138 12,575 5,925 12,000 8,400
Mining - Variable Cost / 1000 ton material extracted 0.123 0.3075 0.1479 0.0700 0.1424 0.1000
Milling - Fixed Cost 7,710 19,275 8,900 3,900 9,250 5,700
Milling - Variable Cost / 1000 ton ore 0.6235 1.5588 0.2618 0.1150 0.2735 0.1675

Local Materials Composition


Locally manufactured materials 65% Full Output Levels (for variable costs)
Contractors margins 15% Mining material extracted (in 1000 tons) 85,000
Local skilled Labour 5% Ore extracted (in 1000 tons) 34,000
Local unskilled Labour 15%

Mining & Milling Costs - Fixed Market Prices (in Rp000's) Efficiency prices (in Rp000's) Comments
Imports 49,954 45,413 * Subject to 10% importy duty ad valorem
Local Materials - Locally manufactured materials 13,959 13,959
Local Materials - Contractors margins 3,221 2,416 * 25% of market price is contractor margin
Local Materials - local skilled labour 1,074 1,074
Local Materials - local unskilled labour 3,221 644 * Opp cost of unskilled labour is 20%
Expatriate Labour 9,825 9,825
Skilled Labour 21,250 21,250
Unskilled Labour 14,100 2,820 * Opp cost of unskilled labour is 20%
Total - Mining & Milling Costs (Fixed) 116,604 97,400

Mining & Milling Costs - Variable (based on FULL OUTPUT)


Imports 87,049 79,135 * Subject to 10% importy duty ad valorem
Local Materials - Locally manufactured materials 13,957 13,957
Local Materials - Contractors margins 3,221 2,416 * 25% of market price is contractor margin
Local Materials - local skilled labour 1,074 1,074
Local Materials - local unskilled labour 3,221 644 * Opp cost of unskilled labour is 20%
Expatriate Labour 9,860 9,860
Skilled Labour 21,403 21,403
Unskilled Labour 14,195 2,839 * Opp cost of unskilled labour is 20%
Total - Mining & Milling Costs (Variable for FULL OUTPUT) 153,979 131,328

PART D.3: FREIGHT, TREATMENT AND REFINING COSTS

Freight Operating Costs


Freight to Japanese refinery (in US$ per ton of concentrate) 25
Freight to Japanese refinery (in Rp000's per ton of concentrate) 0.0625
Number of ton of concentrate (for full output capacity) 680,000
Cost of Freight (at full output capacity) in Rp000's 42,500

Treatment Operating Costs


Treatment of concentrate (in US$ per ton of concentrate) 95
Treatment of concentrate (in Rp000's per ton of concentrate) 0.2375
Number of ton of concentrate (for full output capacity) 680,000
Cost of Treatment (at full output capacity) in Rp000's 161,500

Refining Operating Costs


Copper
Refining cost per pound of copper produced (in US$) 0.1
Refining cost per pound of copper produced (in Rp000's) 0.00025
Number of pounds of copper produced (at full output capacity) 449,742,480
Cost of Copper Refining (at full output capacity) in Rp000's 112,436
Gold
Refining cost per ounce of gold produced (in US$) 5
Refining cost per ounce of gold produced (in Rp) 0.0125
Number of ounces of gold produced (at full output capacity) 546,562
Cost of Gold Refining (at full output capacity) in Rp000's 6,832
Silver
Refining cost per ouce of silver produced (in $US) 3
Refining cost per ouce of silver produced (in Rp) 0.0075
Number of ounces of silver produced (at full output capacity) 874,499
Cost of Silver Refining (at full output capacity) in Rp000's 6,559
Cost of Refining (at full output capacity) in Rp000's 125,826

Page 4 of 20
Appendix A: Base Variables

Total Cost of Freight, Treatment & Refining (at full capacity) in Rp000's 329,826

PART D.4: ROYALTIES

Royalty Operating Costs


Royalty percentage (of fob of sales) 2% * From A: General Variables
Gross value of sales (at full output capacity) 1,812,634 * Calculated in C.1
Cost of freight, treatment & refining in Japan (at full output capacity) 329,826
FOB value of sales (at full output capacity) 1,482,807
Royalty payments (at full output capacity) 29,656

PART E: FINANCE

Loan (debt finance) in US$ 500,000,000 2003 2004 2005


Loan (debt finance) ins Rp000's 1,250,000 25% 45% 30%
Year loan raised 2003
Fixed rate of interest on loan (in real terms) 7%
First year of repayment (*Interest free period until 2006) 2006
Number of years of payments as annuity 15
Total annual payments (principal + interest) -137243

Page 5 of 20
Năm 2003 2004 2005 2006
Kỳ thứ 0 1 2 3

CHI PHÍ ĐẦU TƯ


Đầu tư vốn cố định ban đầu 782,403 1,408,326 938,884
Giá trị thanh lý
Đầu tư thay thế vốn cố định
Đầu tư vốn lưu động 28,151 50,001
Đầu tư phục hồi môi trường

LỊCH KHẤU HAO


Khấu hao tài sản đầu tư ban đầu 208,641
Khấu hao tài sản đầu tư thay thế năm 2009
Khấu hao tài sản đầu tư thay thế năm 2013
Khấu hao tài sản đầu tư thay thế năm 2009
Khấu hao lãi phát sinh trong thời gian xây dựng 5,644
Tổng khấu hao 214,285

LỊCH VAY VÀ TRẢ NỢ


Nợ đầu kỳ 312,500 896,875 1,334,656
Giải ngân 312,500 562,500 375,000
Lãi phát sinh 21,875 62,781 93,426
Trả nợ 0 0 146,538
Trả gốc 0 0 53,112
Trả lãi 0 0 93,426
Nợ cuối kỳ 312,500 896,875 1,334,656 1,281,544
Lãi phát sinh trong thời gian xây dựng 84,656

DOANH THU
Doanh thu 453,158

CHI PHÍ HOẠT ĐỘNG


Chi phí chung 205,000 205,000 205,000
Bảo hiểm 250 250 250
Đất đai 30,000
Chi phí khai thác 155,099
Chi phí vận chuyển, xử lý và tinh luyện 82,457
Tổng chi phí hoạt động 205,250 205,250 472,805

BÁO CÁO THU NHẬP


Doanh thu 0 0 0 453,158
Chi phí hoạt động 0 205,250 205,250 472,805
Chi phí phục hồi môi trường 24,872
Thuế tài nguyên 7,414
EBITDA 0 (205,250) (205,250) (51,932)
Khấu hao 0 0 0 214,285
EBIT 0 (205,250) (205,250) (266,217)
Lãi vay 0 93,426
EBT 0 (205,250) (205,250) (359,643)
Thuế TNDN - - - -

BÁO CÁO NGÂN LƯU TIPV


Ngân lưu vào
Doanh thu
Giá trị thanh lý
Tổng ngân lưu vào 0 0 0 -
Ngân lưu ra
Chi phí đầu tư
Đầu tư vốn cố định ban đầu 0
Đầu tư thay thế vốn cố định 0 0 0 0
Lãi được vốn hóa 0 21,875 62,781
Đầu tư vốn lưu động 0 0
Đầu tư phục hồi môi trường khi kết thúc dự án 0 0 0 0
Chi phí hoạt động 0 205,250 205,250 472,805
Tổng ngân lưu ra - 227,125 268,031 472,805
Ngân lưu ròng trước thuế TNDN 0 (227,125) (268,031) (472,805)
Thuế TNDN 0 0 0 0
Ngân lưu ròng sau thuế TNDN (TIPV) 0 (227,125) (268,031) - 472,805

BÁO CÁO NGÂN LƯU EPV


Ngân lưu ròng sau thuế TNDN (TIPV) 0 (227,125) (268,031) - 472,805.1
Ngân lưu nợ vay 312,500 562,500 375,000 -146538
Ngân lưu ròng sau thuế TNDN (EPV) 312,500 335,375 106,969 (619,343)

BÁO CÁO NGÂN LƯU CỦA EPML


Ngân lưu ròng sau thuế TNDN (EPV) 312,500 335,375 106,969 (619,343)
Thuế tài nguyên 0 0 0 7,414
Ngân lưu ròng của EPML 312,500 335,375 106,969 (626,757)

BÁO CÁO NGÂN LƯU CỦA IMC


Ngân lưu ròng của EPML 312,500 335,375 106,969 (626,757)
Chi phí phục hồi môi trường 0 0 0 24,872
Khấu hao 0 0 0 214,285
Ngân lưu chia cổ tức cho chính phủ 312,500 335,375 106,969 (865,914)
Chia cổ tức cho chính phủ (30%) 93750 100613 32091 0
Ngân lưu ròng của công ty IMC 218,750 234,763 74,878 (626,757)

Cơ cấu vốn của dự án


Tổng đầu tư 3,129,613
Vay nợ 1,250,000 40% 7%
Vốn chủ sở hữu 1,879,613 60% 10%
WACC 8.8%

BẢNG TÍNH SUẤT CHIẾT KHẤU


Ngân lưu ròng sau thuế TNDN (TIPV) 0 (227,125) (268,031) - 472,805
Giá trị dự án - 5,904,275 - 6,196,831 - 6,474,231 - 6,571,272
Giá trị nợ vay 312,500 896,875 1,334,656 1,281,544
Giá trị vốn chủ sở hữu -6216775 -7093706 -7808887 -7852816
%D -5.3% -14.5% -20.6% -19.5%
%E 105.3% 114.5% 120.6% 119.5%
D/E -0.05 -0.13 -0.17 -0.16
re 8.7% 8.6% 8.5% 8.5%
WACC 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8%
DF_EPV 1 0.92 0.85 0.78
PV_EPV 312,500 308,501 90,627 (483,645)
PV_EPML 312,500 308,501 90,627 (489,434)
PV_IMC 218,750 215,951 63,439 (489,434)
PV_Cổ tức chia cho chính phủ 93750 92550 27188 0
PV_Thuế tài nguyên 0 0 0 5,790
NPV theo quan điểm chủ đầu tư - 5,904,275
NPV theo quan điểm tổng đầu tư - 5,904,275
NPV_EPML - 6,079,668
NPV_IMC (6,293,156)
NPV_Cổ tức chia cho chính phủ 213,488
NPV_Thuế tài nguyên 175,393
NPV (IMC, Cổ tức, thuế tài nguyên) (5,904,275)
NPV (EPML, thuế tài nguyên) ###

IRR theo quan điểm dự án Err:523


IRR theo quan điểm tổng đầu tư Err:523
IRR theo quan điểm chủ đầu tư 56%
IRR theo quan điểm của EPML 57%
IRR theo quan điểm của IMC 70%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
4 5 6 7 8 9 10

43,183 66,476

208,641 208,641 208,641 208,641 208,641 208,641 208,641


14,394 14,394 14,394

5,644 5,644 5,644 5,644 5,644 5,644 5,644


214,285 214,285 214,285 228,679 228,679 228,679 214,285

1,281,544 1,224,714 1,163,906 1,098,841 1,029,222 954,730 875,023

89,708 85,730 81,473 76,919 72,046 66,831 61,252


146,538 146,538 146,538 146,538 146,538 146,538 146,538
56,830 60,808 65,065 69,619 74,493 79,707 85,286
89,708 85,730 81,473 76,919 72,046 66,831 61,252
1,224,714 1,163,906 1,098,841 1,029,222 954,730 875,023 789,736

906,317 1,359,475 1,812,634 1,812,634 1,812,634 1,812,634 1,812,634

205,000 205,000 205,000 205,000 205,000 205,000 205,000


250 250 250 250 250 250 250
30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000
193,593 232,088 270,583 270,583 270,583 270,583 270,583
164,913 247,370 329,826 329,826 329,826 329,826 329,826
593,757 714,708 835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659

906,317 1,359,475 1,812,634 1,812,634 1,812,634 1,812,634 1,812,634


593,757 714,708 835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659
24,872 24,872 24,872 24,872 24,872 24,872 24,872
14,828 22,242 29,656 29,656 29,656 29,656 29,656
272,861 597,654 922,447 922,447 922,447 922,447 922,447
214,285 214,285 214,285 228,679 228,679 228,679 214,285
58,576 383,369 708,162 693,768 693,768 693,768 708,162
89,708 85,730 81,473 76,919 72,046 66,831 61,252
(31,132) 297,639 626,689 616,849 621,722 626,937 646,911
- 25,719 24,442 23,076 21,614 20,049 18,375
- - - - - - -

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
593,757 714,708 835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659
593,757 714,708 835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659
- 593,757 - 714,708 - 835,659 - 835,659 - 835,659 - 835,659 - 835,659
0 25,719 24,442 23,076 21,614 20,049 18,375
- 593,757 - 740,427 - 860,101 - 858,735 - 857,273 - 855,709 - 854,035

- 593,756.5 - 740,426.9 - 860,101.4 - 858,735.0 - 857,273.0 - 855,708.7 - 854,034.8


(146,538) (146,538) (146,538) (146,538) (146,538) (146,538) (146,538)
-740295 -886965 -1006639 -1005273 -1003811 -1002247 -1000573

- 740,295 - 886,965 - 1,006,639 - 1,005,273 - 1,003,811 - 1,002,247 - 1,000,573


14,828 22,242 29,656 29,656 29,656 29,656 29,656
(755,123) (909,207) (1,036,296) (1,034,929) (1,033,467) (1,031,903) (1,030,229)

(755,123) (909,207) (1,036,296) (1,034,929) (1,033,467) (1,031,903) (1,030,229)


24,872 24,872 24,872 24,872 24,872 24,872 24,872
214,285 214,285 214,285 228,679 228,679 228,679 214,285
(994,279) (1,148,363) (1,275,452) (1,288,480) (1,287,018) (1,285,453) (1,269,385)
0 - - - - - -
(755,123) (909,207) (1,036,296) (1,034,929) (1,033,467) (1,031,903) (1,030,229)

- 593,757 - 740,427 - 860,101 - 858,735 - 857,273 - 855,709 - 854,035


- 6,555,904 - 6,392,512 - 6,095,065 - 5,772,804 - 5,423,640 - 5,045,307 - 4,635,349
1,224,714 1,163,906 1,098,841 1,029,222 954,730 875,023 789,736
-7780618 -7556418 -7193907 -6802026 -6378369 -5920330 -5425085
-18.7% -18.2% -18.0% -17.8% -17.6% -17.3% -17.0%
118.7% 118.2% 118.0% 117.8% 117.6% 117.3% 117.0%
-0.16 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15
8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%
8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8%
0.72 0.66 0.61 0.56 0.52 0.48 0.44
(532,769) (588,218) (615,147) (566,048) (520,805) (479,114) (440,699)
(543,440) (602,969) (633,270) (582,747) (536,191) (493,291) (453,761)
(543,440) (602,969) (633,270) (582,747) (536,191) (493,291) (453,761)
0 - - - - - -
10,671 14,751 18,123 16,699 15,386 14,177 13,062
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
11 12 13 14 15 16 17

526,834
38,637
(78,151)
625,000

208,641 208,641 208,641 208,641 208,641 208,641 208,641

22,159 22,159 22,159


12,879 12,879 12,879
5,644 5,644 5,644 5,644 5,644 5,644 5,644
236,443 236,443 236,443 214,285 227,164 227,164 227,164

789,736 698,480 600,835 496,355 384,562 264,944 136,951

55,282 48,894 42,058 34,745 26,919 18,546 9,587


146,538 146,538 146,538 146,538 146,538 146,538 146,538
91,257 97,645 104,480 111,793 119,619 127,992 136,951
55,282 48,894 42,058 34,745 26,919 18,546 9,587
698,480 600,835 496,355 384,562 264,944 136,951 0

1,812,634 1,812,634 1,812,634 1,812,634 1,812,634 1,812,634 1,812,634

205,000 205,000 205,000 205,000 205,000 205,000 205,000


250 250 250 250 250 250 250
30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000
270,583 270,583 270,583 270,583 270,583 270,583 270,583
329,826 329,826 329,826 329,826 329,826 329,826 329,826
835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659

1,812,634 1,812,634 1,812,634 1,812,634 1,812,634 1,812,634 1,812,634


835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659
24,872 24,872 24,872 24,872 24,872 24,872 24,872
29,656 29,656 29,656 29,656 29,656 29,656 29,656
922,447 922,447 922,447 922,447 922,447 922,447 922,447
236,443 236,443 236,443 214,285 227,164 227,164 227,164
686,003 686,003 686,003 708,162 695,283 695,283 695,283
55,282 48,894 42,058 34,745 26,919 18,546 9,587
630,722 637,110 643,945 673,417 668,364 676,737 685,696
16,584 14,668 12,618 10,423 8,076 5,564 2,876
- - - - - - -

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 625000
835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659
835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659 835,659 1,460,659
- 835,659 - 835,659 - 835,659 - 835,659 - 835,659 - 835,659 - 1,460,659
16,584 14,668 12,618 10,423 8,076 5,564 2,876
- 852,244 - 850,327 - 848,277 - 846,083 - 843,735 - 841,223 - 1,463,535

- 852,243.8 - 850,327.4 - 848,276.9 - 846,082.8 - 843,735.1 - 841,223.2 - 1,463,535.3


(146,538) (146,538) (146,538) (146,538) (146,538) (146,538) (146,538)
-998782 -996865 -994815 -992621 -990273 -987761 -1610073

- 998,782 - 996,865 - 994,815 - 992,621 - 990,273 - 987,761 - 1,610,073


29,656 29,656 29,656 29,656 29,656 29,656 29,656
(1,028,438) (1,026,522) (1,024,471) (1,022,277) (1,019,929) (1,017,417) (1,639,730)

(1,028,438) (1,026,522) (1,024,471) (1,022,277) (1,019,929) (1,017,417) (1,639,730)


24,872 24,872 24,872 24,872 24,872 24,872 24,872
236,443 236,443 236,443 214,285 227,164 227,164 227,164
(1,289,753) (1,287,837) (1,285,786) (1,261,433) (1,271,965) (1,269,453) (1,891,765)
- - - - - - -
(1,028,438) (1,026,522) (1,024,471) (1,022,277) (1,019,929) (1,017,417) (1,639,730)

- 852,244 - 850,327 - 848,277 - 846,083 - 843,735 - 841,223 - 1,463,535


- 4,191,097 - 3,709,661 - 3,187,900 - 2,622,408 - 2,009,492 - 1,345,139
698,480 600,835 496,355 384,562 264,944 136,951
-4889577 -4310496 -3684255 -3006971 -2274435 -1482091
-16.7% -16.2% -15.6% -14.7% -13.2% -10.2%
116.7% 116.2% 115.6% 114.7% 113.2% 110.2%
-0.14 -0.14 -0.13 -0.13 -0.12 -0.09
8.5% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6%
8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8%
0.41 0.37 0.34 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.25
(405,299) (372,679) (342,616) (314,908) (289,361) (265,790) (398,806)
(417,334) (383,766) (352,830) (324,316) (298,026) (273,770) (406,152)
(417,334) (383,766) (352,830) (324,316) (298,026) (273,770) (406,152)
- - - - - - -
12,034 11,087 10,214 9,408 8,666 7,980 7,346
Năm 2003 2004 2005 2006
Kỳ thứ 0 1 2 3

BÁO CÁO NGUỒN LỰC KINH TẾ


Lợi ích kinh tế
Doanh thu 0 0 0 -
Lợi ích cho cộng đồng địa phương
Giá trị thanh lý
Tổng lợi ích kinh tế 0 - - -
Chi phí kinh tế
Chi phí đầu tư
Đầu tư vốn cố định ban đầu
Đầu tư thay thế vốn cố định
Lãi được vốn hóa 0 21,875 62,781
Đầu tư vốn lưu động 25,508 45,289
Đầu tư phục hồi môi trường khi kết thúc dự án
Chi phí hoạt động
Chi phí chung
Bảo hiểm
Đất đai 15,000
Chi phí khai thác 130,232
Chi phí vận chuyển, xử lý và tinh luyện 82,457
Tổng chi phí kinh tế - 47,383 108,070 227,689
Lợi ích ròng 0 (47,383) (108,070) - 227,689
NPV kinh tế (4,646,438)
IRR kinh tế Err:523
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
4 5 6 7 8 9 10

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

37,561 57,473

15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000


163,064 195,896 228,728 228,728 228,728 228,728 228,728
164,913 247,370 329,826 329,826 329,826 329,826 329,826
342,977 458,266 611,116 573,554 573,554 573,554 631,027
- 342,977 - 458,266 - 611,116 - 573,554 - 573,554 - 573,554 - 631,027
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
11 12 13 14 15 16 17

- - - - - - -

463,577
- - - - - - 463,577

33,429

-70,797
625,000

15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000


228,728 228,728 228,728 228,728 228,728 228,728 228,728
329,826 329,826 329,826 329,826 329,826 329,826 329,826
573,554 573,554 573,554 606,983 573,554 573,554 1,127,757
- 573,554 - 573,554 - 573,554 - 606,983 - 573,554 - 573,554 - 664,180
Năm 2003 2004 2005 2006
Kỳ thứ 0 1 2 3

CÁCH 1: NGÂN LƯU KINH TẾ - NGÂN LƯU PHÍA NƯỚC NGOÀI


Ngân lưu kinh tế 0 (47,383) (108,070) (227,689)
Ngân lưu của IMC 218,750 234,763 74,878 (626,757)
Ngân lưu nhà tài trợ nước ngoài (312,500) (562,500) (375,000) 146,538
Lợi ích của nhóm thụ hưởng trong nước 93,750 280,354 192,052 252,530

CÁCH 2: PHÂN TÁCH THEO TỪNG NHÓM THỤ HƯỞNG


1) Chính phủ
Thuế nhập khẩu trên đầu tư ban đầu 47,927 86,268 57,512
Thuế nhập khẩu trên đầu tư thay thế
Thuế nhập khẩu trên đầu tư vốn lưu động 2,446 4,318
Thuế nhập khẩu trên chi phí khai thác 6,520
Tổng thuế nhập khẩu chính phủ thu được 47,927 88,713 61,830 6,520
Thuế TNDN do IMC nộp cho chính phủ 0 0 0 0
Cổ tức chia cho chính phủ 93750 100613 32091 0
Thuế tài nguyên nộp cho chính phủ 0 0 0 7,414
Tổng lợi ích cho chính phủ 141,677 189,326 93,921 13,934

2) Nhà thầu địa phương


Lợi nhuận trên đầu tư ban đầu 3,462 6,232 4,154
Lợi nhuận trên đầu tư thay thế
Lợi nhuận trên đầu tư vốn lưu động 47 94
Lợi nhuận trên chi phí chung 1,645 1,645 1,645
Lợi nhuận trên chi phí khai thác 1,007
Tổng lợi ích cho nhà thầu địa phương 3,462 7,924 5,893 2,652

3) Lao động không có kỹ năng


Chênh lệch tiền lương trong đầu tư ban đầu 37,141 66,854 44,569
Chênh lệch tiền lương trong đầu tư thay thế
Chênh lệch tiền lương trong đầu tư vốn lưu động 150 300
Chênh lệch tiền lương trong chi phí chung 25,365 25,365 25,365
Chênh lệch tiền lương trong chi phí khai thác 17,340
Tổng lợi ích cho lao động không có kỹ năng 37,141 92,369 70,234 42,705

4) Cộng đồng địa phương


Lợi ích ngoại tác cho cộng đồng địa phương 33,000 33,000 33,000
Chênh lệch giá cho thuê đất 15000
Tổng lợi ích cho cộng đồng địa phương 33,000 33,000 48,000

Tổng lợi ích cho nhóm thụ hưởng trong nước 182,280 322,618 203,048 107,291
Kiểm tra 88530 42264 10996 -145240

Suất chiết khấu xã hội 6%


Nhóm thụ hưởng trong nước NPV
1) Chính phủ 843,340
2) Nhà thầu 44,358
3) Lao động 636,556
4) Cộng đồng 475,408
Tổng, cách 1 3,233,434
cách 2 1,999,662
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

(342,977) (458,266) (611,116) (573,554) (573,554) (573,554) (631,027) (573,554)


- 755,123 - 909,207 - 1,036,296 - 1,034,929 - 1,033,467 - 1,031,903 - 1,030,229 - 1,028,438
146,538 146,538 146,538 146,538 146,538 146,538 146,538 146,538
265,607 304,403 278,642 314,837 313,375 311,810 252,664 308,346

1,653 2,066

8,498 10,476 12,455 12,455 12,455 12,455 12,455 12,455


8,498 10,476 14,108 12,455 12,455 12,455 14,521 12,455
0 25,719 24,442 23,076 21,614 20,049 18,375 16,584
0 - - - - - - -
14,828 22,242 29,656 29,656 29,656 29,656 29,656 29,656
23,326 58,437 68,206 65,187 63,725 62,160 62,552 58,695

469 938

1,645 1,645 1,645 1,645 1,645 1,645 1,645 1,645


1,208 1,409 1,611 1,611 1,611 1,611 1,611 1,611
2,853 3,055 3,725 3,256 3,256 3,256 4,193 3,256

3,500 6,000

25,365 25,365 25,365 25,365 25,365 25,365 25,365 25,365


20,823 24,307 27,790 27,790 27,790 27,790 27,790 27,790
46,188 49,672 56,655 53,155 53,155 53,155 59,155 53,155

33,000 33,000 33,000 33,000 33,000 33,000 33,000 33,000


15000 15000 15000 15000 15000 15000 15000 15000
48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000

120,368 159,164 176,585 169,597 168,135 166,571 173,900 163,106


-145240 -145240 -102057 -145240 -145240 -145240 -78764 -145240
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
12 13 14 15 16 17

(573,554) (573,554) (606,983) (573,554) (573,554) (664,180)


- 1,026,522 - 1,024,471 - 1,022,277 - 1,019,929 - 1,017,417 - 1,639,730
146,538 146,538 146,538 146,538 146,538 146,538
306,429 304,379 268,756 299,837 297,325 829,011

1,240
(6,764)
12,455 12,455 12,455 12,455 12,455 12,455
12,455 12,455 13,695 12,455 12,455 5,691
14,668 12,618 10,423 8,076 5,564 2,876
- - - - - -
29,656 29,656 29,656 29,656 29,656 29,656
56,779 54,728 53,774 50,187 47,675 38,223

469
(141)
1,645 1,645 1,645 1,645 1,645 1,645
1,611 1,611 1,611 1,611 1,611 1,611
3,256 3,256 3,725 3,256 3,256 3,115

3,500
(450)
25,365 25,365 25,365 25,365 25,365 25,365
27,790 27,790 27,790 27,790 27,790 27,790
53,155 53,155 56,655 53,155 53,155 52,705

33,000 33,000 33,000 33,000 33,000 33,000


15000 15000 15000 15000 15000 15000
48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000

161,190 159,139 162,153 154,597 152,085 142,043


-145240 -145240 -106602 -145240 -145240 -686968

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