THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL AND POPULATION

PYRAMIDS

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

Demographic = to do with population

Transition = Change
Model = in Geography, a model is a simplified way of looking at the world to make it easier to
understand.

What is a model? A model is simply a representation of a real thing. Geographers construct models
to analyse geographic processes because the real object of study may be too large to examine, the
processes which created it operate over too long of a time frame, or experimentation might actually
harm or destroy it.

What is transition? The process or a period of changing from one state or condition to another.

What is Demography? The study of statistics such as births, deaths, income, or the incidence of
disease, which illustrate the changing structure of human populations.

Therefore the Demographic Transition Model is a simplified way of looking at how population is
changing and has changed around the world. It focuses on birth rates, death rates and natural increase.

➔ DRAW: Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is based on historical population trends of two
demographic characteristics – birth rate and death rate – to suggest that a country’s total population
growth rate cycles through stages as that country develops economically.
Each stage is characterized by a specific relationship between birth rate (number of annual births per
one thousand people) and death rate (number of annual deaths per one thousand people).

As these rates change in relation to each other, their produced impact greatly affects a country’s total
population. Within the model, a country will progress over time from one stage to the next as certain
social and economic forces act upon the birth and death rates.

Every country can be placed within the DTM, but not every stage of the model has a country that meets
its specific definition. For example, there are currently no countries in Stage 1. Stage 5 is not shown
on the original DTM however today there are some countries who show characteristics of a stage 5
thus it has been added to the original model. Countries which are described as being developed have
reached Stage 4 and 5. The UK is one of these. Other countries are at different stages of their
development, and therefore occupy different places on the model.

→COPY: What happens at each stage of the demographic transition model

The DTM shows how population patterns can change over time. Below is a summary of some of the
factors that help to explain this change.

➔ COPY:

Population Pyramids
Population structure: the composition of the population in terms of age and gender

Population pyramids: these are diagrams designed to show the population structure of an area. This
means the proportion of males and females in three broad age bans – usually subdivided into five
year age ranges:

The young dependent population 0 – 14 years

The economically active group usually 15 – 64 years
The elderly dependents (old dependants) from 65 years upwards

Dependant: a person who relies on another person for their survival or to meet their basic needs.
These people are in the young or old dependents age group. Taxes paid to the government by the
economically active are needed to support the needs of the two dependent groups. Many LEDCs have
a high number of young dependants, whilst many MEDCs have a growing number of elderly
dependants.
It is important to collect population data because all planning and budgeting for the development of
an area is based on figures. Therefore:
• Knowing ages and sex distribution improves provision of social services
• Age distribution also reveals the quantity of labour and skills available

Population data can also be found in:

• Parish registers where church keep records of birth, baptism and deaths;
• School registers- records of numbers of school children their sexes, ages, parent’s names and
occupations;
• Citizens’ identity cards- issued to people showing ages, nationalities and occupations;
• Maternity clinics and child welfare services.

Population pyramid shapes

What does a population pyramid look like?

➔ DRAW: Examples of population pyramids

Reasons for the different shapes of population pyramids

Pyramid shape What it indicates and the reason for it
Wide base Many children due to high birth rate
Narrow top Few elderly caused by high death rate
Low top Low life expectancy caused by high death rate
Almost straight sides Low death rate
Narrow base Low birth rate
Wide top Long life expectancy
Shorter bars as the pyramid Fewer people in each older age group as there is Increased
progresses upwards death rate with each older age group
High top More elderly than in earlier times as a result of low death rate
How do pyramids change over time?
• A population pyramid that is very triangular (eg Mozambique in 2000) shows a population
with a high number of young dependants and a low life expectancy.

• A population pyramid that has fairly straight sides (more like a barrel) shows a population
with a falling birth rate and a rising life expectancy.

• Over time, as a country develops, the shape changes from triangular to barrel-like.

• Places with an ageing population and a very low birth rate would have a structure that looks
like an upside-down pyramid.

Population pyramids and the Demographic Transition Model

Countries at different stages of the DTM have different shaped population pyramids. If you can
recognise the different basic shapes and understand what they are showing, then you can tell which
stage of the model a country is at.

➔ DRAW: The changing shapes of typical pyramids at different stages of the DTM
Dependency ratio
The dependency ratio is a measure showing the number of dependents, aged zero to 14 and over the
age of 65, to the total population, aged 15 to 64.

Dependency ratio = non economically active x 100

Economically active

= children (0-14) plus elderly (65+) x 100

Those working (15-64)

e.g. UK 2008 figures: 11.537 + 11.344 x 100 = dependency ratio of 60.68

37.7.7
This means that for every 100 people of working age, there were 60.68 people dependent on them.

Example of dependants in a LEDC vs a MEDC

Caring for dependents
MEDCs have mainly old dependents whilst LEDCs have mainly young dependents and both are
cared for differently in LEDCs and MEDCs. In LEDCs the focus is very much on families to care for
dependents whereas in MEDCs there is a lot more assistance from the government as well.

OLD DEPENDENTS YOUNG DEPENDENTS

MEDCs . retirement homes . pre and post-natal care
. public and private pensions . hospitals (midwives)
. personal savings . doctors/surgeries (immunisation)
. hospitals (government and private) . nurseries
. day care centres . schools
. home help (meals on wheels) . nannies
. families (sons and daughters) . families (parents, etc)
. child support (from government)
. orphanages

LEDCs . families . families

. community . community
. basic medical care . basic medical care
. charitable organisations . charitable organisations
. personal savings . orphanages

Ageing Population
This is when the proportion of old dependents is increasing. This happens because life expectancy
increases, but also because birth rates start to fall. This happens in stage 5 of the DTM. A country with
an ageing population might have a higher death rate than expected because old people eventually die
even if their life expectancy is high.

Problems faced by an ageing population

- There may be a shortage of workers (not enough economically active people)
- If there is a shortage of workers there are less taxpayers and the government receives less
money
- Old people tend to get sicker, so there will be an increase in pressure on hospitals
- In many countries retired people can claim pensions off the government. If there are a lot of
old people, this can be very expensive
- The government has to provide places in care homes or provide services so people can care
for themselves at home e.g., meals on wheels.
- Closure of child related services and loss of jobs e.g. schools and nurseries
- Less consumers and taxpayers in the future
- An increase in the age of the population
- Birth rates fall below replacement rate cause the population to decline. Also in the future
there will be less people in the reproductive age range causing further declines.
Solutions to problems faced by an ageing population

- Increase the retirement age. In the UK the retirement age has been increased from 65 to 67.
What is the retirement age in China and Japan?
- Increase the amount of tax charges to economically active group
- Introduce private healthcare so that the government does not have to pay
- Encourage people to have private pensions so that the government does not have to pay
- Economic immigration could be encouraged to reduce the dependency ratio
- Have pronatalist policy so that birth rates and the number of young people increases.
- Subsidised childcare and education to encourage more families to have more children.

Young Population (characteristic of most LEDCs)

This usually refers to young dependents, either when they are too many or too few.

Advantages of a large young population

- Potentially large workforce in the future
- Population who has grown up understanding modern technology e.g. computers and the
internet

Problems of young population

- Child care has to be provided so that parents can return to work.
- Governments need to pay so that young people can go to school
- Young people get sick so the government has to pay for healthcare
- An increase in the dependency ratio
- teaching and nursing jobs needed

Solutions to young population

- an anti-natalist policy might be introduced like China’s one child policy
- increase family planning. Make contraception available and affordable
- ensure females are educated and emancipated.
CASE STUDY EXAMPLES

A youthful population: Uganda

• Location and background:
o Uganda is located in East Africa, with a land area of 197,100 km2 and a population of 42.86
million.
o It has the world’s youngest population with over 78% of its population below the age of 30.

• Causes:
o The birth rate in Uganda is very high as parents are having more children.
o Parents have more children to use as economic producers / help in their jobs (agriculture)
o The infant mortality rate in Uganda is high (45.1 in 2012) so parents have more just in case.
o There is a lack of contraception that helps protect against pregnancy.

• Effects:
o A lot of money has to be spent on healthcare as there are more births, more vaccinations used
and children being ill.
o The GDP will increase as there would be a larger workforce in the long term and no laws on
child labour.
o As there are more kids, more of them would need to be educated, there would be more money
spent on education.
United Kingdom: Ageing population

The percentage of elderly dependents (+65 years) has increased by 3% from 15% in 1980
to 18% in 2014.

Benefits:
• Elderly people can share skills and knowledge to train the younger generation
• Elderly people promote the development of grey economies (such as health care,
specialised facilities, other facilities desired by elderly, etc.)
• Elderly continue to pass on traditions and culture.

Problems:
• An increase in the percentage of elderly dependents is a strain on the working
population as higher taxation is required to support the pensions of the elderly
and to fund services such as health care and specialised homes.
• Government-funded pensions may have to shrink to cover everybody, leaving many
people with less to spend (and some in poverty).
• In contrast, services for younger people, such as schools, are underused. These
services may then have to close (eg. Woodly School in North Yorkshire which shut
in 2012 due to a lack of students). As a result, some people may be left unemployed.
• There are not enough economically active people, causing a lack of workforce and
making it harder to defend the country.