take necessary

Trend forecasting
decisions. Decision-making becomes better and easier when forecasting is
Introduction undertaken on scientific basis.
Trend Forecasting is the process of researching and formulating predictions on 1. Developing the ground work: It carries out an orderly investigation of products,
consumer’s future buying habits. By identifying the source, tracing the evolution, company and industry.
and recognising patterns of trends. Forecasters are able to provide designers and
2. Estimating future business: This follows a clear-cut plan for working out future
brands with a ‘vision’ of the future. Forecasters research and identify social, cultural,
expectancies in the form of natural undertaking with key executives.
ethical or environmental shifts, and how they are likely to affect future consumer
behaviour. Through this process, they can identify products and services that 3. Comparing actual with estimated results: Checking the attained with anticipated
consumers will be looking to buy. results of the business periodically and tracking down reasons for major differences.
4. Refining the Forecast Process: Once familiarity with estimating the future of the
business is gained through practice, sharpening the approach and refining the
Objectives procedure becomes quite easy.
Trend forecasting is an overall process that focuses on other industries such as
automobiles, medicine, food and beverages, literature, and home furnishings.
Fashion forecasters are responsible for attracting consumers and helping retail Principles of forecasting
businesses and designers sell their brands. There are many types of forecasting models. They differ in their degree of
complexity, the amount of data they use, and the way they generate the forecast.
However, some features are common to all forecasting models. They include the
Importance of forecasting following:
Forecasting is used in almost every area of business today. Accurate analysis of 1. Forecasts are rarely perfect. Forecasting the future involves uncertainty.
consumer trends is vital in forming brand direction and development, in the creation Therefore, it is almost impossible to make a perfect prediction. Forecasters know
of relevant products and services and ultimately in ensuring their success. that they have to live with a certain amount of error, which is the difference between
Some important practices involved in fashion forecasting are: what is forecast and what actually happens. The goal of forecasting is to generate
good forecasts on the average over time and to keep forecast errors as low as
• Understanding the seasons, whether the trends are being worked upon for possible.
Spring/ Summer or Fall/ Winter
• Studying trends as per the selected season and a closer look on the markets 2. Forecasts are more accurate for groups or families of items rather than for
that are being catered individual items. When items are grouped together, their individual high and low
• Understanding the demography of that particular area values can cancel each other out. The data for a group of items can be stable even
• Very importantly, deciding on the product category. when individual items in the group are very unstable. Consequently, one can obtain a
higher degree of accuracy when forecasting for a group of items rather than for
individual items. For example, you cannot expect the same degree of accuracy if you
are forecasting sales of long-sleeved hunter green polo shirts that you can expect
when forecasting sales of all polo shirts.
3. Forecasts are more accurate for shorter than longer time horizons. The shorter
Elements of forecasting the time horizon of the forecast, the lower the degree of uncertainty. Data do not
change very much in the short run.
Forecasting, therefore, helps to know the expected profits or losses and just by
going through certain reports and records of the company, enables the forecaster to

not. It may also reveal patterns or trends that can then be helpful, for example,
Steps in forecasting in choosing the model that best fits it. Advantages of
Another thing that can be done here is to check for unnecessary data and cut it Forecasting
The 6 Steps in Business Forecasting
down or make some educated assumptions. By reducing the amount of data to
Forecasting is sometimes an overlooked part of business management. Other
analyse you can greatly simplify the entire process.
aspects, like small business inventory management, are already so time-consuming 1] Assists in Planning
4. Choose the Forecasting Model
that there is little energy left to dedicate to it.
Once all the information is collected and treated, you may then choose the
However, predicting future events can greatly help leaders make the best possible model you think will give you the best prediction possible. There is not one One of the biggest advantages of forecasting is that it enables the manager
decisions. In order to boost your small business inventory management efficiency single model that works best in all situations, it all depends on the availability to plan for the future of the organization. Planning and forecasting actually
and leave some time for forecasting. and nature of the available data. go hand in hand. Without an idea of what the future holds for the company,
we cannot plan for it. Thus, forecasting plays a very important role in
Let’s take a look at how the business forecasting process usually occurs. Qualitative Forecasting planning.
Two models that are commonly used in qualitative forecasting are a market
research and the Delphi method. 2] Environmental Changes
1. Identify the Problem
A market research is performed by enquiring a large number of people about
Defining the problem can seem simple at first because it looks like you are
their willingness to purchase a possible product or service. When done correctly, forecasts should be able to point out the upcoming
simply asking how the market will react to a new product, or how the
The Delphi method consists of gathering forecasts from several different changes in the environment. This means that it can allow the company to
company’s sales will look like in a few months. Even more so if you have a good
experts in a given area, and then compiling all that information into a single benefit from such environmental changes. When the changes are
forecasting tool for small business.
forecast. It relies on the assumption that a collective forecast is more accurate favourable to the company it can expand and grow its business. And in
However, this step is quite tricky because there aren’t actually any tools that
than that of a single person. conditions that are adverse, it can plan and prepare to protect itself.
can help here. It requires you to know who the forecast is directed too, how the
market works, and what your customer base and competition are. Quantitative Forecasting 3] Identifying Weak Spots
You should spend some time evaluating these issues together with the people
Quantitative forecasting are used to forecast future data as a function of past
who will be responsible for maintaining databases and gathering the data.
data. They are appropriate to use when past numerical data is available and Another advantage of forecasting is that it will help the manager identify any
when it is reasonable to assume that some of the patterns in the data are weak spots, or ignored areas that the organization may have. Once
2. Collect Information
expected to continue into the future. attention has been drawn to these areas, the manager can put into effect
We say information here, and not data, because data may not be available yet
If sufficient data is available, the human factor can be removed from the effective controls and planning techniques to rectify them.
if for example the forecast is aimed at a new product. Having said this, the
equation and a raw data analysis can be performed to predict future values. A
information comes essentially in two ways: the knowledge gathered by
lot of mathematical values exist to do these predictions. 4] Improves Co-ordination and Control
experts and actual data.
If no data is yet available, the information must come from the judgments
Forecasting requires information and data from a lot of external and
made by experts in the area. If the forecast is based solely on judgment and no
5. Data analysis internal sources. This information is collected by the various managers and
actual data, we are in the field of qualitative forecasting.
This step is simple. After choosing a suitable model, run the data through it. staff from various internal sources. So almost all units and verticals of the
If data is available on the subject, a model is used to analyze the data and
organization are involved in the process of forecasting. This allows for
predict future values. This is called quantitative forecasting. A good example is
better communication and coordination amongst them.
predicting the sales for a given product in order to replenish stocks
Limitations of Forecasting
accordingly. This can even be done on a daily basis if you use a good
6. Verify Model Performance
forecasting tool for small business.
When the time comes, it is very important to compare your forecast to the Along with the benefits, there are also some limitations of forecasting. Let
actual data. This allows you to evaluate the accuracy of not only the model, but us take a look at a few of them,
3. Perform a Preliminary Analysis
the entire process, and change each step accordingly.
An early analysis of the data may tell you right away if the data is usable or
 1] Just Estimates happening in the world and any cultural shifts.

The future will always be uncertain. Even if use the best of forecasting
Long- term forecasting
techniques and account for every aspect imaginable, a forecast is still just
an estimate. One can never predict future events with 100% success. So
even the best-laid plans may amount to nothing. This will always remain Long term forecasting (over 2 years ahead) is used by executives for
one of the biggest limitations of forecasting. corporate planning purposes. It is also used for marketing managers to
position products in the marketplace in relationship to competition.
2] Based on Assumptions
Short- term forecasting
The basis of any forecasting method is assumptions, approximations,
normal conditions, etc. This makes these forecasts unreliable. So one must
always keep in mind the inherent limitations of forecasting and be cautious Short term forecasting is used by product developers, merchandisers and
in being over- reliant on them. production managers to give style direction and shape collections. For
short term forecasting most apparel companies subscribe to one or more
3] Time and Cost Factors services, whose job is to scan the market and report on the developments
in colour, textiles and style directions.
The data and information required to make formal forecasts are generally Fashion cycle
a lot. And the collection and tabulation of such data involve a lot of time Forecasters reflect the earliest views on trends some eighteen months in
and money. The conversion of qualitative data into quantitative data is also advance of the season. At this stage, colour is an important consideration
another factor. One must be careful that the time, money and effort spent of yarn mills. It is also the focus of discussion among others who are A fashion cycle is the term used to describe the process that a type of
forecasting must not outweigh the actual benefits from such forecasts. interested in very early trend decision-making. Fashion forecasters fashion goes through. The fashion first gains mass acceptance and
combine the views emerging about colour and fabric from the early yarn popularity from the consumers and then with time, the tastes and
FASHION FORECASTING and fabric trade shows with their socio-economic and cultural analysis. preferences of the consumers’ ebbs, which causes the fashion to lose that
Major trends in lifestyles, attitude and culture in particular acceptance and popularity.
music, sport, cinema and television are used to predict changing consumer
Fashion forecasting is the prediction of mood, behaviour and buying habits demands.
of the consumer. It is no longer a question of identifying your customers by
The fashion cycle is usually depicted as a bell shaped curve with 5 stages:
age, geography or income, but looking into how and why they buy, based Fashion forecasting involves the following activities such as studying
on their mood, beliefs and the occasion. market conditions, noting the life style of the people, researching sales
statistics, evaluating popular designer collections, surveying fashion 1. Introduction
publications, observing street fashions etc. 2. Rise in popularity
Role of fashion forecaster
3. Peak of popularity
4. Decline in popularity
Fashion forecasters predict which silhouettes colours, textures, fabrics, 5. Rejection
graphics, prints, footwear, accessories, etc. will be the forthcoming trends Introduce a Fashion:
on the runway and in retail stores from season to season. They do this by
• Most new styles are introduced in the high level.
examining new and emerging trends across all industries, to see how they
• Designers create the designs with few limitations on creativity, quality of raw
may influence future fashion trends. This includes new developments
material or amount of fine workmanship.
across the creative industries. They’ll also take into consideration what’s
• They create new apparel and accessory style by changing elements like line

shape color ect… adoption assumes that fashion begins in the upper class of society. Styles worn by the
• Product costs are high and only few can afford. Theories of Fashion Adoption wealthy change, and those changes are gradually adopted by the middle and lower
• Production in small quantity gives the designer more freedom, flexibility. Fashion moves from one person to the other. Therefore, to study fashion adoption, classes. When those styles have been adapted by the lower classes, the wealthy, in
• New products are shown to retail buyers and press. one must know those people who are the first to adopt a fashion. These people are turn, change their style and attire. This theory assumes that the lower classes want
• At the first stage of cycle, fashion implies only style and newness. fashion leaders. Fashion theories indicates the process of fashion ideas. The theories to compete with the upper classes and is the oldest theory of fashion adoption.
• Celebrities, TV stars, models buy these clothes as they want to wear them in explain the fashion trend. It also tells about how fashion moves from one stage to
some events. other stage. The following theories of fashion adoption explain the different ways in
Trickle-Across Theory
which fashion knowledge and adoption moves from one person to the other. The
First developed in the late 1950’s, the trickle-across theory assumes that fashion
Theories of Fashion Adoption are –
moves across socioeconomic levels relatively rapidly. Clothing styles do not trickle
Increase in popularity: • The Trickle Down or Downward Flow Theory down but appear at all price points at approximately the same time. Mass
• Horizontal Flow Theory or The Trickle Across communications and popular media support the existence of this theory, providing
• When new styles are seen worn by celebrities on TV or magazines they
• The Trickle Up or Upward Flow Theory pictures and details about new styles, as does the modern retail world. Many
attract the attention of the general public.
• Viewers may wish to buy the new styles but perhaps cannot afford them. designers show similar styles in a variety of lines, ranging from high-end designer
• Manufactures use less expensive fabric and modify the designs to sell in low clothing to lower-end affordable pieces. Once a design appears on the runway, a
price. variety of companies produce similar garments, allowing widespread access to
• Some companies also do imitation of designer originals at low prices fashion. From the 1960’s shift dress to the shoulder pads of the 1980’s, these
• High priced designers now have secondary sales line which sell at lower prices garments were available in discount, department and designer stores at
so they are able to sell adoptions of their original designs in great quantity approximately the same time

Peak of popularity: Trickle-Up Theory

• When fashion is at height of popularity it may be in such demand that The trickle-up theory of fashion adoption reflects changing styles and practices in
more manufactures copy it or produce adaptations of it at many price levels. fashion. According to the theory, styles may begin with youth or street fashion and
move progressively up the fashion ladder until they are favoured and worn by older
Theories of fashion adoption or distribution are concerned with how fashion moves and wealthier consumers. Coco Chanel was the first to adopt this theory when she
Decline in popularity: through the various socioeconomic levels of society. There are three primary integrated military fabrics and attire into fashion following World War II. The classic
theories of fashion T-shirt began as an undergarment in the working classes and is now a fundamental
• After so many designs copies are mass produced, people get tired of that style piece of the everyday wardrobe. Once the styles have been adopted by more
adoption: trickle-down, trickle-across and trickle-up. However, no one theory is
and begin to look for something new. traditional consumers, the street or youth culture may adopt a new style.
sufficient to discuss fashion theory or explain how fashion moves through society. In
• Consumers still wear garments in style but they don’t buy them at regular prices.
addition to these theories, there is an alternate populist model of fashion adoption, Role of internet in fashion forecasting.
• Retail stores put declining styles on the sale rack.
which applies to some situations that identify fashion distribution as moving
The internet plays a big role in fashion forecasting. Forecasters will research
through social groups rather than socioeconomic classes.
Rejection of a style: upcoming designer and celebrity collections and new looks popular on sites like
Instagram. Ultimately, a fashion forecasters’ responsibility lies in assisting designers
• In the past fashion cycle some consumers must have already turned to new look.
and retailers to attract more customers and sell their brands.
• The rejection of a style just because it is out of fashion is called
consumers obsolescence Trickle-Down Theory
Coined by economist Thorstein Veblen in 1889, the trickle-down theory of fashion Role of Social Media in Fashion Forecasting
 Internet has a lot of power which can bring a lot of opportunities and challenges. Research can also define as a scientific and systematic search for relevant studies are known as hypothesis-testing research studies).
Social media is growing a lot which is a platform for promoting a company’s profile information on a specific topic. In fact, research is an art of scientific
with simple and short information and in case of a forecaster they can give simple investigation. The Advanced Learner’s Dictionary of Current English lays
and short information which can hype up the youth. Social media has given rise to a down the meaning of research as “a careful investigation or inquiry
lot of fashion bloggers and influencers which are getting a lot of attention online. especially through search for new facts in any branch of knowledge. Some
There are a lot of information which is available on the internet which now people consider research as a movement, a movement from the known to
the unknown. We all possess the vital instinct of curiosity MOTIVATION IN RESEARCH:
accessible for everyone. Many forecasters can get some creative ideas via some
for, when the unknown confronts us, we wonder and our curiosity makes us
bloggers and their websites which sometimes reflect our youth, there are companies probe and attain What makes people to undertake research? This is a question of fundamental
who consult many bloggers just to make sure that they won’t lose any single point full and fuller understanding of the unknown. This curiosity is the mother of all importance. The
for becoming the top brand. When it comes to advertisement social media is the best knowledge and possible motives for doing research may be either one or more of the following:
platform for you and with the help of it you can advertise to a particular type of the method, which man employs for obtaining the knowledge of whatever 1. Desire to get a research degree along with its consequential benefits;
people with the help of influences of that field and with the help of information the unknown, can be 2. Desire to face the challenge in solving the unsolved problems, i.e.,
given by the customers it is easier to predict upcoming trends. termed as research. Research is an academic activity and as such the term concern over practical
should be used in a technical sense. problems initiates research;
According to Clifford Woody research comprises defining and redefining 3. Desire to get intellectual joy of doing some creative work;
problems, formulating 4. Desire to be of service to society;
hypothesis or suggested solutions; collecting, organising and evaluating 5. Desire to get respectability.
Technological Developments in the Trend Forecasting World Today data; making deductions and However, this is not an exhaustive list of factors motivating people to
This year there are a lot of improvements in technology as there are new technology reaching conclusions; and at last carefully testing the conclusions to undertake research studies.
like artificial intelligence is introduces to the fashion world. AI or artificial determine whether they fit the Many more factors such as directives of government, employment
formulating hypothesis. conditions, curiosity about new
intelligence started in the year 2017 but by now it is very normal as we all have
things, desire to understand causal relationships, social thinking and
adapted to it very well.
awakening, and the like may as
AI helps a lot in collecting, organizing and analysing all types of data which will help well motivate (or at times compel) people to perform research operations.
the designers and forecaster in predicting the trend with the help of information AI
has gathered from different sources. OBJECTIVES OF RESEARCH:
A great example of AI is the app created by Kardashian which is Screenshop that The purpose of research is to discover answers to questions through the RESEARCH METHODS VERSUS METHODOLOGY:
uses AI image recognition which helps the customer to find any type of dress of any application of scientific procedures. The main aim of research is to find out
price range which just an image or screenshot of it. This app does helps in updating the truth which is hidden and which has not been discovered as yet. Research methods include all the techniques and methods which have been
your wardrobe without heading out of your house, which is just amazing. Though each research study has its own specific purpose, we may think of taken for conducting research whereas research Methodology is the
research objectives as falling into a number of following broad groupings: approach in which research troubles are solved thoroughly. It is a science
So, if we look at a country like India which is rich in culture and has lots of color,
 To gain familiarity with a phenomenon or to achieve new insights of studying how research is conducted systematically. In this field the
style, and fashion in every part of their country and it can differ from city to city.
into it (studies with this object in view are termed as exploratory or researcher explains himself with the different steps generally taken to
IBM or International Business Machine are working together to bring a new AI
formulative research studies); study a research problem. Hence, the scientific approach which is adopted
engine which will  To portray accurately the characteristics of a particular individual, for conducting a research is called methodology.
help them in forecasting or predicting the next big trend of the country which will situation or a group
relatable with styles, color, and sizes and which will increase their sales and profit and (Studies with this object in view are known as descriptive research studies);
TYPES OF RESEARCH:
their main aim to give the customers what they want but at a reasonable price.  To determine the frequency with which something occurs or with The basic types of research are as follows:
MEANING OF RESEARCH: which it is associated with something else (studies with this object in
view are known as diagnostic research studies);
In common speech or talk, research refers to a search for knowledge.  To test a hypothesis of a causal relationship between variables (such
(i) Descriptive vs. Analytical: Descriptive research consists of survey and

type of research is typically descriptive and harder to analyse than RESEARCH PROCESS:
quantitative data. Qualitative research involves looking in-depth at
fact-finding investigation of different kinds. The main purpose of
Non-numerical data. It is more naturalistic or anthropological. Research process consists of sequence of actions or steps necessary to
descriptive research is explanation of the set of circumstances as it is
present as such. The term Ex post facto research has been used to effectively carry out research and the desired progression of these steps.
elaborate this type of research in different areas or subjects of research. (iv) Conceptual vs. Empirical: Conceptual research is that related to The chart shown in Figure 1represents a research process.
The main feature of this method is that the scientist does not have direct some abstract idea(s) or theory. It focuses on the concept and theory that
control over the variables; he can only report what is happening or what explain the concerned theory being studied. It is generally used by
has happened. For example, why peoples of the south side are suffering logicians, philosophers and theorist to develop new concepts or to again
from lung cancer as compared to north-side neighbours understand the existing ones. On the other hand, empirical research relies
and investigation revealed that south side persons have wood burning on experience or observation alone. It is a way of gaining knowledge by
stoves and fire places, the researcher could hypothesize the reason that means of direct and indirect observation or experience. We can also refer
the wood smoke is a factor of lung cancer. The techniques used in it as experimental type of research. In such a research it is necessary to get
descriptive research are can be of all kinds like survey methods, the facts and data firstly, their source, and then actively engaged to doing
comparative and correlational methods etc. On the other hand, in certain things to stimulate the production of desired information.
analytical research, , the researcher could be use the facts, information,
data which is already available, and analyse these sources to make a (v) Some Other Types of Research: Other types of research may be of
hypothesis to evaluation of the material. different types rather than above stated types like form the point of view
of time one-time research or longitudinal research. In the former case the
(ii) Applied vs. Fundamental: Applied research refers to finding a research is restricted to a single time-period, while in the latter case the
research is carried on over several time periods. Research can be field-
solution for specific, practical problem facing by an individual, society or an
setting research or laboratory research or model research, which will
industrial or business organization, for example how to abolish hate crime,
depend upon the environment in which it is to be carried out. Research may
what are the ways to market a product, what is causing increased poverty
be understood as clinical or diagnostic research. Such research follows The figure shows that the research process having a number of closely
etc. whereas fundamental research is mainly concerned with overview and
case-study methods or exhaustively approaches to reach the basic reasons related actions, as shown from step 1 to 7. But these activities should be
with the formulation of a theory.
behind the problems. The research may be exploratory or it may be following in a strictly prescribed sequence otherwise researcher may face
This is pure and basic type of research, for example an
formalized. The objective of exploratory research is the creation of the problem in completion of the research. In the research process, each
investigation looking for whether stress levels influence how often
hypotheses rather than their testing, whereas formalized research are step is specific and they are separate and distinct from each other.
students engage in academic cheating or how caffeine consumption
those with significant structure and with specific hypotheses to be tested. However, the following
impacts the brain.
The term historical research is refers to that which make use of historical order relating to various steps provides a useful procedural instruction
Thus, the main aim of applied research is to find out a solution for some
resource like documents, papers, leaflets remains, etc. to study events or regarding the research process:
critical practical problem, whereas basic research is handling towards
finding information that has a wide sense of applications to the already thoughts of the past, including the philosophy of persons and groups at
any point of time. Research can also be classified as conclusion-oriented 1) Identification of research problem
existing organized body of scientific knowledge.
and decision-oriented. While doing conclusion oriented research, a 2) Broad literature survey
researcher having freethinking to choose a problem, redesign the queries 3) Hypothesis formulation
(iii) Quantitative vs. Qualitative: In natural sciences and social 4) Preparation of research design
as he proceeds and is prepared to conceptualize as he wants. Decision-
sciences, quantitative research is based on the aspect of quantity or 5) Determining sample design
oriented research is always for the need of a decision maker and the
extent. It is related to object that can be expressed in terms of quantity or 6) Data collection
researcher in this case is not free to get on research according to his own
something that can be counted. Such type of research involve systematic 7) Analysis of data
preference.
experimental analysis of observable phenomenon via statistical, 8) Hypothesis testing
mathematical or computational techniques in numerical form such as 9) Generalizations and interpretation
statistics, percentages, etc. whereas Qualitative research, is concerned 10) Preparation of the report or presentation of the results,
with qualitative phenomenon, i.e., relating to quality or variety. Such
A brief description of the above stated steps are as follows: formulated, a synopsis of it should be written down. such type of inquiry all the items are covered and not a single
3. Hypotheses formulation: element is left and highest accuracy is obtained. But in practical way
1. Identification of research problem: After the literature survey, researcher should make a hypothesis or this may not be true because a single element
There are two types of research problems like, those which relate to working hypothesis. Working hypothesis is a guess made to test the of bias in such inquiry will get larger the number of observations
states of nature means that denote the hypothetical conditions of logical or empirical outcome of a research. A hypothesis assists to increases. Moreover, there is no way of scrutiny the element of bias
what the lives of people might have been like before societies came explain the research problem and objective into a comprehensive or its level except through a resurvey or use of sample checks.
into existence and those which relate to relationships between explanation or prediction of the expected results of the study. Besides, such type of inquiry comprises a lot of time, money and
different variables. Initially the researcher must recognize the Hypothesis is derived from the research problem, literature review energy. Apart from this, census inquiry is not possible practically
problem he wants to study, i.e., he must decide the general area of and conceptual framework. Since Hypothesis is to be tested under many conditions. For example, blood sugar testing is done
interest or part of a subject-matter that he would like to inquire into. therefore it should be very specific and limited to the piece of only on sample basis. Hence, quite often we select only a few items
At the onset the problem may be discussed in a broad way and then research. It sharpens the researcher’s thinking and focus on the from the population for our study purposes. The selection of items in
the doubts, if any, relating to the problem may be resolved. Then, the important facts of the problem. Hypothesis formulation could be such type of manner is technically called a sample. The researcher
probability of a particular clarification has to be considered before done by using the following approaches: must decide the way of selecting a sample or choose a sample design
working on formulation of the problem. Basically two steps are (a) Discussions with colleagues and experts about the research for his study. In other words, a sample design is an exact sketch
involved in formulating the research problem, viz., understanding problem, its source, cause and the objectives in search of a solution; determined prior to any type of data collection for obtaining a sample
the problem systematically, and reshape the same into significant (b) Assessment of data and records, from a given universe. There are two types of sampling: non-
terms from an analytical point of view. The most excellent way of (c) Evaluation of similar previous studies in the area similar problems; and probability and probability sampling. Non-probability sampling uses
understanding the problem is to discuss it with contemporaries or (d) Personal investigation which involves original field survey. a subjective method of selecting units from a universe, and is
with those having some knowledge in the related matter. In an Thus, any hypotheses take place as a result of a-prior thinking about generally easy, quick, and economical. Therefore, it is useful to
academic institution the researcher can take the assistance from a the subject, assessment of the available data and material including perform preliminary studies, focus groups or follow-up studies.
guide who is usually an experienced man and has several research related previous studies. Formulation of working hypotheses is a Probability samples are based on simple random sampling, stratified
problems in his mind. In private business units or in governmental basic step of any research process. sampling, systematic sampling, cluster/area sampling whereas non-
organizations, the problem is usually allocate by the administrative probability samples are those based on straightforward sampling,
agencies with whom the researcher can discuss the problem 4. Preparation of research design: judgement sampling and quota sampling techniques. There is brief
originally that how it is came about and what reflections are involved A good research design will be prepared if a research problem description of some important sample designs is as follows:
in its possible clarification. should be stated clearly. In other words, the purpose of research
design is refers as general procedure that you choose to combine the (i) Deliberate sampling:
2. Broad literature survey: various components of the study in a consistent and logical way. It Deliberate sampling is also called as nonprobability or purposive
After the identification of research problem, the researcher must at comprises the outline for the collection, measurement, and analysis sampling. This sampling method consists of purposive selection of
study all available literature to get himself familiar with the selected of data. A flexible research design which offers the opportunity for particular items of the universe to represent a sample. When
problem. He may review two types of literature first is the allowing the different aspects of a problem is considered suitable if samples are selected from a population on the basis of ease of
conceptual literature which is related to the concepts and theories, the purpose of the research study is to be clear. There are several access, it can be called convenience sampling. If a researcher wants
and second is the empirical literature which consisting of previous research designs, such as, Descriptive (e.g., case-study, naturalistic to collect the data from students, he may select a fixed number of
studies similar to the proposed research problem. The researcher observation, survey), Correlational (e.g., case-control study, universities and colleges to conduct the interviews. This is a
should undertake vast literature survey concerned with the problem. observational study), Semi-experimental (e.g., field experiment, simple example of convenience sample. Sometimes this type of
For this purpose, the abstracting and indexing journals and quasi- experiment), Experimental (experiment with random sampling may give biased results particularly when the universe is
published or unpublished bibliographies are the first place where assignment), Review (literature review, systematic review) and not homogeneous. On the other hand, in judgement sampling
researcher can get the information or knowledge. Academic Meta-analytic (meta-analysis) out of which the researcher should which is based on the judgement of researcher and used for
journals, conference proceedings, government reports, books etc., select one for his task. selecting items from a given population. For example, a
must be hit depending on the nature of the problem. After this the judgement sample of office staff might be taken to secure
researcher revise the problem into analytical or operational terms 5. Determining sample design: reactions to a new rule of office. Judgement sampling is used
i.e., to put the problem in as specific terms as possible. This Every object that involve in any type of inquiry constitute a regularly in qualitative research.
assignment of formulating, or defining, a research problem is an ‘universe’ or ‘population’. A complete detail of any object in the
important step in the entire research process. Once the problem is ‘population’ is known as a census inquiry. It can be supposed that in (ii) Simple random sampling:
This type of sampling is also called as probability sampling or

chance sampling where each item in the population has an equal In stratified sampling the cost of taking random samples from multi-stage random sampling.
chance of inclusion in the sample and each sample having the individual strata is often so expensive that interviewers are
probability of being selected in the sampling procedure. For simply given quota to be filled from different strata, the actual (viii) Sequential sampling:
example, names of 20 selection of items for sample being left to the interviewer’s This is somewhat a complex sample design where the ultimate
employees being selected out of 250 employees in a company. In judgement. This is called quota sampling. The size of the quota for size of the sample is not fixed in advance but is determined
this case, the population is all 250 employees, and the sample is each stratum is generally proportionate to the size of that according to mathematical decisions on the basis of information
random because each employee has an equal chance of being stratum in the population. Quota sampling is thus an yielded as survey progresses. This design is usually adopted
chosen. There are basically three methods to conduct a random important form of non-probability sampling. Quota samples under acceptance sampling plan in the context of statistical
sampling. If we select a sample of 300 items from a population of generally happen to be judgement samples rather than random quality control. In practice, several of the methods of sampling
2,000 items, then we can write up the names of all the 2,000 items samples. described above may well be used in the same
on slips of paper and conduct a lottery. This is called Lottery study in which case it can be called mixed sampling. It may be
method. The second method of random sampling is using a (vi) Cluster sampling and area sampling: pointed out here that normally one should resort to random
random number table and third method is by using the computer Cluster sampling involves grouping the population and then sampling so that bias can be eliminated and sampling error can be
in which the computer is used for selecting a sample of prize- selecting the groups or the clusters rather than individual estimated. But purposive sampling is considered desirable when
winners, a sample of Hajj applicants, and a sample of applicants elements for inclusion in the sample. Suppose some departmental the universe happens to be small and a known characteristic of it
for residential plots and for various other purposes. store wishes to sample its credit card holders. It has issued its is to be studied intensively. Also, there are conditions under which
cards to 15,000 customers. The sample size is to be kept say 450. sample designs other than random sampling may be considered
(iii) Systematic sampling: For cluster sampling this list of 15,000 card holders could be better for reasons like convenience and low costs. The sample
Whenever a researcher choose some specific name or number formed into 100 clusters of 150 card holders each. Three clusters design to be used must be decided by the researcher taking into
from the population then this type of sampling is known as might then be selected for the sample randomly. The sample size consideration the nature of the inquiry and other related factors.
systematic sampling In some example the most practical way of must often be larger than the simple random sample to ensure
sampling is to select every 10th name in an index, every 15th the same level of accuracy because is cluster sampling procedural 6. Data Collection:
shop on single side of a street etc. A component of potential for order bias and other sources of error is usually In dealing with any real life problem it is often found that data at hand are
unpredictability is generally commenced into this type of sampling accentuated. The clustering approach can, however, make the inadequate, and hence, it becomes necessary to collect data that are
by using random numbers to pick and choose up the item with sampling procedure relatively easier and increase the efficiency appropriate. There are several ways of collecting the appropriate
which to start. This method is helpful when sampling frame is of field work, especially in the case of personal interviews. Area data which differ considerably in context of money costs, time and other
available in the form of a list. In such type of sample design the sampling is quite close to cluster sampling and is often talked resources at the disposal of the researcher. Primary data can be
practice of selection process begins by picking some random about when the total geographical area of interest happens to be collected either through experiment or through survey. If the
point in the list and then every nth item is selected until the big one. Under area sampling we first divide the total area into a researcher conducts an experiment, he observes some quantitative
desired number is secured. number of smaller non- overlapping areas, generally called measurements, or the data, with the help of which he examines the truth
geographical clusters, then a number of these smaller areas are contained in his hypothesis. But in the case of a survey, data can be collected
(iv) Stratified sampling: randomly selected, and all units in these small areas are included by any one or more of the following ways:
In stratified sampling the researcher divides the population into in the sample. Area sampling is especially helpful where we do not
separate groups, called strata or we can say that Stratification is have the list of the population concerned. It also makes the field (i) By observation: This method implies the collection of information
the process of dividing members of the population into interviewing more efficient since interviewer can do many by way of investigator’s own observation, without interviewing
homogeneous subgroups before sampling. In this technique, the interviews at each location. the respondents. The information obtained relates to what is
population is divided into a number of no overlapping currently happening and is not complicated by either the past
subpopulations or strata and sample elements are selected from (vii) Multi-stage sampling: behaviour or future intentions or attitudes of respondents. This
each stratum. If the item selected from each stratum is based on This is a further development of the idea of cluster sampling. This method is no doubt an expensive method and the information
simple random sampling technique in complete process of technique is meant for big inquiries extending to a considerably provided by this method is also very limited. As such this method is
sampling means first stratification and then simple random large geographical area like an entire country. Under multi-stage not suitable in inquiries where large samples are concerned.
sampling, this type of sampling is known as stratified random sampling the first stage may be to select large primary sampling
sampling. units such as states, then districts, then towns and finally certain (ii) Through personal interview: The investigator follows a rigid
families within towns. If the technique of random-sampling is procedure and seeks answers to a set of pre-conceived questions
(v) Quota sampling: applied at all stages, the sampling procedure is described as
 through personal interviews. This method of collecting data is researcher should classify the raw data into some purposeful and usable matter of fact, the real value of research lies in its ability to arrive at
usually carried out in a structured way where output depends categories. Coding operation is usually done at this stage through which certain generalisations. If the researcher had no hypothesis to start with,
upon the ability of the interviewer to a large extent. the categories of data are transformed into symbols that may be tabulated he might seek to explain his findings on the basis of some theory. It is
and counted. Editing is the procedure that improves the quality of the data known as interpretation. The process of interpretation may quite often
(iii) Through telephone interviews: This method of collecting for coding. With coding the stage is ready for tabulation. Tabulation is a part trigger off new questions which in turn may lead to further researches.
information involves contacting the respondents on telephone of the technical procedure wherein the classified data are put in the form of 11. Preparation of the report or the thesis:
itself. This is not a very widely used method but it plays an tables. The mechanical devices can be made use of at this juncture. A great Finally, the researcher has to prepare the report of what has been done by
important role in industrial surveys in developed regions, deal of data, specially in large inquiries, is tabulated by computers. him. Writing of report must be done with great care keeping in view the
particularly, when the survey has to be accomplished in a very Computers not only save time but also make it possible to study large following:
limited time. number of variables affecting a problem simultaneously. Analysis work 1. The layout of the report should be as follows:
(iv) By mailing of questionnaires: The researcher and the respondents after tabulation is generally based on the computation of various (i) the preliminary pages;
do come in contact with each other if this method of survey is percentages, coefficients, etc., by applying various well defined statistical (ii) the main text,
adopted. Questionnaires are mailed to the respondents with a formulae. In the process of analysis, relationships or differences (iii) the end matter.
request to return after completing the same. It is the most supporting or conflicting with original or new hypotheses should be
extensively used method in various economic and business subjected to tests of significance to determine with what validity data can In its preliminary pages: the report should carry title and date followed by
surveys. Before applying this method, usually a Pilot Study for be said to indicate any conclusion(s). For instance, if there are two samples acknowledgements and foreword. Then there should be a table of
testing the questionnaire is conduced which reveals the of weekly wages, each sample being drawn from factories in different parts contents followed by a list of tables and list of graphs and charts, if any,
weaknesses, if any, of the questionnaire. Questionnaire to be used of the same city, giving two different mean values, then our problem may be given in the report.
must be prepared very carefully so that it may prove to be effective whether the two mean values are significantly different or the difference is
in collecting the relevant information. just a matter of chance. Through the use of statistical tests we can The main text of the report should have the following parts:
establish whether such a difference is a real one or is the result of random (a) Introduction: It should contain a clear statement of the objective of the
(v) Through schedules: Under this method the enumerators are fluctuations. If the difference happens to be real, the inference will be that research and an explanation of the methodology adopted in accomplishing
appointed and given training. They are provided with schedules the two samples come from different universes and if the difference is due the research. The scope of the study along with various limitations should
containing relevant questions. These enumerators go to to chance, the conclusion would be that the two samples belong to the as well be stated in this part.
respondents with these schedules. Data are collected by filling up same universe. Similarly, the technique of analysis of variance can help us (b) Summary of findings: After introduction there would appear a
the schedules by enumerators on the basis of replies given by in analysing whether three or more varieties of seeds grown on certain statement of findings and recommendations in non-technical language. If
respondents. Much depends upon the capability of enumerators fields yield significantly different results or not. In brief, the researcher can the findings are extensive, they should be summarised.
so far as this method is concerned. Some occasional field checks analyse the collected data with the help of various statistical measures. (c) Main report: The main body of the report should be presented in logical
on the work of the enumerators may ensure sincere work. The sequence and broken-down into readily identifiable sections.
researcher should select one of these methods of collecting the 8. Hypothesis-testing: (d) Conclusion: Towards the end of the main text, researcher should again
data taking into consideration the nature of investigation, After analysing the data as stated above, the researcher is in a position to put down the results of his research clearly and precisely. In fact, it is the
objective and scope of the inquiry, financial resources, available test the hypotheses, if any, he had formulated earlier. Do the facts support final summing up.
time and the desired degree of accuracy. Though he should pay the hypotheses or they happen to be contrary? This is the usual question
attention to all these factors but much depends upon the ability which should be answered while testing hypotheses. Various tests, such as At the end of the report: appendices should be enlisted in respect of all
and experience of the researcher. Chi square test, t-test, F-test, have been developed by statisticians for the technical data. Bibliography, i.e., list of books, journals, reports, etc.,
purpose. The hypotheses may be tested through the use of one or more of consulted, should also be given in the end. Index should also be given
such tests, depending upon the nature and object of research inquiry. specially in a published research report.
Hypothesis-testing will result in either accepting the hypothesis or in 2. Report should be written in a concise and objective style in simple
7. Analysis of data:
rejecting it. If the researcher had no hypotheses to start with, language avoiding vague expressions such as ‘it seems,’ ‘there may be’, and
After the data have been collected, the researcher turns to the task of
generalisations established on the basis of data may be stated as the like.
analysing them. The analysis of data requires a number of closely related
hypotheses to be tested by subsequent researches in times to come. 3. Charts and illustrations in the main report should be used only if they
operations such as establishment of categories, the application of these
present the information more clearly and forcibly.
categories to raw data through coding, tabulation and then drawing
10. Generalisations and interpretation: 4. Calculated ‘confidence limits’ must be mentioned and the various
statistical inferences. The unwieldy data should necessarily be condensed
If a hypothesis is tested and upheld several times, it may be possible for constraints experienced in conducting research operations may as well be
into a few manageable groups and tables for further analysis. Thus,
the researcher to arrive at generalisation, i.e., to build a theory. As a stated.

CRITERIA OF GOOD RESEARCH:

Whatever may be the types of research works and studies, one thing that
is important is that they all meet on the common ground of scientific
method employed by them. One expects scientific research to satisfy the
following criteria:
1. The purpose of the research should be clearly defined and common
concepts be used.
2. The research procedure used should be described in sufficient detail to
permit another researcher to repeat the research for further
advancement, keeping the continuity of what has already been attained.
3. The procedural design of the research should be carefully planned to
yield results that are as objective as possible.
4. The researcher should report with complete frankness, flaws in
procedural design and estimate their effects upon the findings.
5. The analysis of data should be sufficiently adequate to reveal its
significance and the methods of analysis used should be appropriate. The
validity and reliability of the data should be checked carefully.
6. Conclusions should be confined to those justified by the data of the
research and limited to those for which the data provide an adequate
basis.
7. Greater confidence in research is warranted if the researcher is
experienced, has a good reputation in research and is a person of integrity.

In other words, we can state the qualities of a good research as under:

1. Good research is systematic: It means that research is structured with
specified steps to be taken in a specified sequence in accordance with the
well-defined set of rules. Systematic characteristic of the research does
not rule out creative thinking but it certainly does reject the use of
guessing and intuition in arriving at conclusions.
2. Good research is logical: This implies that research is guided by the rules
of logical reasoning and the logical process of induction and deduction are
of great value in carrying out research. Induction is the process of
reasoning from a part to the whole whereas deduction is the process of
reasoning from some premise to a conclusion which follows from that very
premise. In fact, logical reasoning makes research more meaningful in the
context of decision making.
3. Good research is empirical: It implies that research is related basically to
one or more aspects of a real situation and deals with concrete data that
provides a basis for external validity to research results.
4. Good research is replicable: This characteristic allows research results to
be verified by replicating the study and thereby building a sound basis for
decisions.