Q4FY24 Results Preview

Institutional Research
India I Consumer
5 April 2024

India Consumer NIFTY 50: 22,514

Demand softness continued in Q4 leading to slow growth BSE Sensex: 74,248

We expect Q4FY24 print to be muted for staples, albeit stronger for paints/oral-care. Though Stock price performance (%)*
extended, yet milder winter and sticky food inflation led to softness in demand as consumer Company Name 1 Mth 3 Mth 6 Mth 1 Yr
preferences shift towards ‘only essential’ products putting pressure on mass consumption. HUL (5.5) (12.6) (9.6) (12.2)
We expect staples to report low to mid-single-digit volume growth. We expect cigarette Dabur (5.0) (10.3) (8.5) (7.3)
companies to report negative to mid-single digit volume growth, while paints to deliver Britannia (0.3) (10.2) 6.2 11.2
doubled digit volume growth. Our channel checks indicate highly penetrated staple categories Colgate-Palmolive 7.3 9.1 37.1 77.1
such as soaps detergents, and biscuits saw low growth due to resurgence of local competition
Emami (2.7) (20.2) (17.1) 24.9
eating share of value-for-money segment. Even though disruptive competition in paints could
Bajaj consumer (0.9) 1.1 2.1 51.1
trigger price cuts, we believe APNT to sustain growth momentum. Premium product in
ITC 5.3 (10.3) (2.0) 11.3
branded packaged food/toothpaste gain traction in MT/e-com, moreover continue to
Godfrey Phillip 3.6 47.0 52.1 80.9
influence urban sales, though GT remained flat. With waning commodity inflation GM to
improve, yet savings to get reinvested back in A&P spend for brand building, and support NPD VST Industries 0.6 (4.3) 8.3 13.1
could hold margins. We believe with stable Rabi crop and govt. initiatives to drive macro- Asian Paints 2.2 (14.7) (9.0) 2.7
economic recovery may reflect in demand recovery post Q1in FY25. Our top picks are APNT, Nifty 50 0.7 3.9 15.8 28.2
Source: Bloomberg; * as on 5th April 2024
BRIT, ITC and Emami, while bounce back in rural to influence DABUR and BAJCON positively.
Mild winter/sticky food inflation cut volume growth to negative to mid-single digit Rating and Target prices
In Q4FY24 our staples coverage universe to report revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 3.5%/3.9%/ Company Rating Price* (Rs) TP (Rs)
5.9%. We expect most staples categories to report low-single-digit volume growth yet paints/oral HUL REDUCE 2,264 2,521
care to report high-single–digit volume growth. Our ground checks indicate amid high food Dabur BUY 506 613
inflation and sluggish income growth, revenues for high rural facing companies to be muted. We Britannia BUY 4,813 5,854
attribute this to, (1) delayed yet mild winter, (2) uneven economic recovery, (3) sticky food Colgate ADD 2,707 2,862
inflation, and (4) consumption shift towards essential purchases. That said, such impact was seen Emami BUY 447 610
higher in the north (PJB & Har), and central region. Aggressive discounting/ pricing coupled with Bajaj Consumer BUY 233 260
local marketing support, the unorganised players winning sales in rural pockets. We expect, with
ITC BUY 422 556
stable Rabi crop and govt. initiatives to drive macro-economic recovery may reflect in demand
Godfrey Phillip BUY 3,207 2,656
recovery post Q1in FY25. We believe APNT and ITC to outperform. Urban markets tracked well led
VST Industries BUY 3,641 3,943
by strong growth in MT/e-com channel yet GT saw rising inventory. The weakness was more
noticeable in the wholesale channel located in tier 2/3/4 towns. Asian paints BUY 2,918 3,820
Source: Centrum Research Estimates, *as on 4th April 2024
Channel check point, rising local competition devouring share in high penetrated categories
Our interaction with channel partners directed, (1) with benign input prices, local competition Nifty 50 vs NSE FMCG Index
devouring market share in mass consumption categories as consumers down-trade, especially in
140
soaps/detergents/biscuit, (2) premium packaged food/oral-care saw traction in the MT/e-com NIFTY 50

driven by large packs, (3) hair oils/BPC categories saw muted volumes due to competition from 130

D2C players and (4) with intensifying competition we expect price cuts in paints, though APNT may 120
be unruffled given strategic moat. Our Q4FY24 revenue growth estimates: GP (+11.7%), CLGT 110
NSE FMCG
(+11.2%), BRIT (+5.6%), DABUR (+5.6%) APNT (+5.2%), ITC (+3.7%), VST (3.6%), EMAMI (+1.0%),
100
HUL (0.5%) and BAJCON (-4.5%).
90
Waning RM inflation, yet intense competition to push A & P spends may check margins Apr-23 Jun-23 Aug-23 Oct-23 Dec-23 Feb-24 Apr-24
We reckon, sequential decline in RM prices, though few risen, to reflect sequential improvement Source: Bloomberg
in gross margin, however most companies chose to reinvestment savings in A & P spends for brand
building and support NPD may hold margins in our view. Higher sales from leaf tobacco may cut
margins for cigarette companies. Major RM prices have dropped YoY. Milk powder (-23%), Soda
ash (-21%), Milk (-20%), Mentha Oil (-19%), Copra (-18%), TiO2 (-13%), Tea (-11%), HDPE (-8.0%),
Wheat (-3%), Crude palm oil (-1%), while risen for Sugar (+8%) and PFAD (+4%). Our EBITDA margin
assumptions: ITC (37.0%), CLGT (33.2%), VST (26.5%), EMAMI (25.6%), HUL (22.9%), APNT (21.2%),
BRIT (19.1%), GP (18.7%), DABUR (18.7%) and BAJCON (15.2%).
What to watch for?
The sector could see few surprises as the results commentary could include: (1) volume surprise
for paints, toothpaste and cigarettes companies, (2) weaker growth for hair oils, and beauty and
personal care, (3) rapid growth of B2B pruning channel inventory, (4) strong summer may lift
demand growth summer portfolio, and (5) currency headwinds impacting: (a) International
business, and (b) imported commodity such as crude and crude palm oil derivatives.
Top picks
Consumer

We prefer APNT (strong demand for decorative paints/waterproofing products and retain pole
position), BRIT (balancing growth vs. profitability), ITC (double digit EBIT growth in FMCG/Cigarette,
Shirish Pardeshi
Hotel spin-off), and Emami (consolidation of D2C portfolio, positive future outlook and reasonable Research Analyst, Consumer
valuations) based on Q4FY24 performance. +91-22-4215 9634
[email protected]

Please see Appendix for analyst certifications and all other important disclosures.
India Consumer 5 April 2024

Exhibit 1: Summary estimates

Revenue EBITDA Adj. PAT
(Rs mn)
Q4FY24E Q4FY23 YoY(%) Q3FY24 QoQ(%) Q4FY24E Q4FY23 YoY(%) Q3FY24 QoQ(%) Q4FY24E Q4FY23 YoY(%) Q3FY24 QoQ(%)
Asian Paints 92,443 87,873 5.2 91,031 1.6 19,603 18,648 5.1 20,561 (4.7) 13,597 12,831 6.0 14,752 (7.8)
Bajaj Consumer Care 2,351 2,462 (4.5) 2,364 (0.5) 356 385 (7.4) 333 7.1 384 405 (5.0) 364 5.7
Britannia 42,464 40,231 5.6 42,563 (0.2) 8,118 8,008 1.4 8,211 (1.1) 5,536 5,576 (0.7) 5,586 (0.9)
Colgate Palmolive 14,920 13,417 11.2 13,864 7.6 4,949 4,430 11.7 4,592 7.8 3,609 3,181 13.4 3,301 9.3
Dabur 28,264 26,778 5.6 32,551 (13.2) 5,285 4,098 29.0 6,678 (20.9) 3,983 2,930 36.0 5,068 (21.4)
Emami 8,443 8,360 1.0 9,963 (15.3) 2,162 1,998 8.2 3,149 (31.3) 1,708 1,416 20.6 2,666 (35.9)
Godfrey Phillips 8,826 7,901 11.7 12,354 (28.6) 1,650 1,501 9.9 2,103 (21.5) 1,353 1,151 17.6 2,456 (44.9)
HUL 1,49,715 1,48,930 0.5 1,51,880 (1.4) 34,285 34,710 (1.2) 35,400 (3.2) 24,116 24,720 (2.4) 25,490 (5.4)
ITC 1,67,104 1,61,159 3.7 1,63,142 2.4 61,832 59,273 4.3 58,552 5.6 54,157 50,140 8.0 55,776 (2.9)
VST Industries 3,117 3,009 3.6 3,618 (13.9) 826 812 1.7 716 15.3 643 687 (6.3) 537 19.8
Staples 5,17,647 5,00,120 3.5 5,23,330 (1.1) 1,39,067 1,33,863 3.9 1,40,294 (0.9) 1,09,086 1,03,036 5.9 1,15,995 (6.0)
Source: Companies, Centrum Broking

Exhibit 2: Summary valuations

DCF based TP EPS PE EV/EBIDTA ROE %
Name Rating Price*
(Rs) FY23 FY24E FY25E FY23 FY24E FY25E FY23 FY24E FY25E FY23 FY24E FY25E
Asian paints BUY 2,918 3,820 44.4 54.1 62.0 65.7 53.9 47.1 45.0 36.3 31.4 28.6 30.5 31.0
Bajaj Consumer BUY 233 260 9.4 13.3 16.3 23.5 16.7 13.6 20.8 13.7 10.6 17.4 23.5 25.9
Britannia BUY 4,813 5,854 80.9 98.6 115.6 53.6 51.1 43.8 44.2 37.7 31.9 68.1 65.8 58.3
Colgate ADD 2,707 2,862 38.9 49.1 54.5 68.3 54.1 48.7 47.3 38.9 35.0 61.3 76.6 82.3
Dabur BUY 506 613 9.7 11.4 13.5 55.2 46.7 39.6 40.9 34.2 29.0 19.7 21.5 23.2
Emami BUY 447 610 14.5 17.5 20.6 33.5 26.8 24.0 48.3 39.7 35.8 29.2 32.5 32.1
Godfrey Phillip BUY 3,207 2,656 117.0 147.4 171.5 26.2 12.9 11.3 18.0 9.7 7.6 20.6 25.3 23.4
HUL REDUCE 2,264 2,521 42.7 45.5 50.2 64.9 61.1 55.3 43.1 39.0 34.6 20.3 20.9 22.7
ITC BUY 422 556 211.7 204.4 228.5 27.7 28.3 26.1 21.2 21.3 19.4 29.0 28.8 29.9
VST Industries BUY 3,641 3,943 211.7 204.4 228.5 17.2 20.2 16.0 13.7 14.3 11.3 29.0 23.0 26.5
Source: Company, Centrum Research Broking, *as on 5 Jan 2024

Exhibit 3: Quarterly volume growth trends, (YoY%)

Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23 Q3FY23 Q4FY23 Q1FY24 Q2FY24 Q3FY24 Q4FY24
Asian paints (Deco.) 8.0 37.0 10.0 0.0 16.0 10.0 6.0 12.0 10.0
Bajaj Consumer (ADHO) (9.8) 14.0 (3.0) 0.0 9.1 10.5 4.0 8.0 5.0
Britannia 5.0 (2.0) 4.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 5.0
Colgate (4.0) (3.0) (3.0) (3.0) -3.0 4.0 1.0 3.0 6.0
Dabur 2.0 5.0 1.0 (3.0) 0.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 4.0
Emami - 8.0 (1.2) (3.0) 2.0 3.0 2.0 (0.9) 3.0
Godfrey Phillip (Cigarette) 12.8 37.0 24.4 20.0 18.0 8.1 8.0 11.0 8.0
HUL - 6.0 4.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
ITC (Cigarette) 9.0 26.0 20.0 15.0 12.0 9.0 5.0 (1.2) 3.0
VST Industries (Cigarette) 6.0 9.0 9.0 (3.0) (11.0) (7.0) (7.0) (4.0) (2.0)
Source: Companies, Centrum Broking

Exhibit 4: Quarterly sales growth trends, (YoY, %)

Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23 Q3FY23 Q4FY23 Q1FY24 Q2FY24 Q3FY24 Q4FY24
Asian paints 18.7 54.1 19.2 1.3 11.3 6.7 0.2 5.4 5.2
Bajaj Consumer (10.7) 15.0 7.2 0.1 11.7 7.8 0.5 3.3 -4.5
Britannia 15.5 9.0 22.1 17.4 13.3 8.4 1.2 1.4 5.6
Colgate 1.4 2.5 2.6 0.8 3.7 10.8 6.1 8.2 11.2
Dabur 7.7 8.1 6.0 3.4 6.4 10.9 7.3 4.0 5.6
Emami 5.4 17.7 3.4 1.1 8.5 6.8 6.3 1.4 1.0
Godfrey Phillip 3.6 36.4 60.5 30.4 10.2 26.2 13.7 36.0 11.7
HUL 11.0 19.8 15.9 16.3 10.6 6.1 3.6 (0.3) 0.5
ITC 16.5 41.1 27.2 2.5 5.1 (8.5) 2.8 1.4 3.7
VST Industries 8.7 9.3 26.6 5.2 (0.4) 10.9 1.4 4.8 3.6
Source: Companies, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 2

India Consumer 5 April 2024

HUVR (Rating: REDUCE; CMP: Rs2,264)

We expect revenue to remain flat YoY for HUVR on the back of 2% volume growth on
account of price cuts. Our channel check indicate demand remain sluggish due to weak
consumer sentiment, shift in winter season and rising competition. Further volume
trajectory remained flattish post festival season due to resurgence of local completion
eating share of highly penetrated mass segment as consumer started down trading across
categories including soap, and detergents segment. The continued sluggish demand for BPC
(hair and skin) may cut growth further. However rural slowdown largely in central India
limiting its growth in our view. On Homecare portfolio, HUL took price cuts to boost
volumes. Given this we expect home care to decline by 2%, though /F & R segment to report
+1% growth. However despite price cuts BPC, we expect flat growth wing to extended
winter in Jan/Feb. Mr. Rohit Jawa, MD has guided that BPC & packed food would be the top
priority for HUL. On raw material front, most of the key raw materials have been cooling off
(palm oil, vegetable oil, except barley, wheat and milk) which could help HUVR to report
expansion in gross margin sequentially yet we expect HUVR to prioritise volume growth may
step up A & P spends could limit operating margins. HUVR continue to add new products in
their portfolio in the advent to establish its premiumisation journey. We expect EBITDA
margin to cut by 41bp to 22.9%, given higher discount and A&P spends. We expect 2.4%
drop in adjusted net profit YoY.
Exhibit 5: Quarterly estimates
HUVR (Rs mn) Q4FY24 Q4FY23 YoY(%) Q3FY24 QoQ(%)
Revenue 1,49,715 1,48,930 0.5 1,51,880 (1.4)
EBITDA 34,285 34,710 -1.2 35,400 (3.2)
EBITDA (%) 22.9 23.3 -41 bp 23.3 -41 bp
Adj. PAT 24,116 24,720 -2.4 25,490 (5.4)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Dabur (Rating: Buy; CMP: Rs505; TP: Rs613)

We estimate 4%/5.6% growth in volume/value for Dabur in Q4FY24. Gradual recovery has
been observed in the FMCG consumption led improvement in macro-economic condition,
government spending & positive consumer sentiment. Further sequential improvement
expected in volume trends on back of judicious price cuts, and green shoots observed in
few rural markets. Though strong summer expected to lift sales in Apr, Dabur pushed
inventory loading for summer portfolio. On a high base Dabur expected to report low single
digit growth in F&B including healthcare (Honey & Chaywanprash). We expect revenue
growth for Healthcare/ HPC/Foods at 2.0%/8.0%/3.0%. We have built 8.0% CC growth for
international business. Despite overhang of war Dabur is expected to register double-digit
growth in constant currency terms, led by MENA region, Egypt & Turkey. Management
expect ‘Badshah’ to post strong volume led growth in high teens. Effort made on direct
distribution and enhanced village coverage especially in HSM markets. We expect gross
margin expansion YoY on the back of lowering RM inflation followed by cost-saving
initiatives while majority of savings will be invested in A&P to gain volume. We expect
EBITDA margin at 18.7% (+339bp). We expect EBIDA/PAT to increase by +29.0%%/+36.0%.
Exhibit 6: Quarterly estimates
Dabur (Rs mn) Q4FY24 Q4FY23 YoY(%) Q3FY24 QoQ(%)
Revenue 28,264 26,778 5.6 32,551 (13.2)
EBITDA 5,285 4,098 29.0 6,678 (20.9)
EBITDA (%) 18.7 15.3 339 bp 20.5 -182 bp
Adj. PAT 3,983 2,930 36.0 5,068 (21.4)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 3

India Consumer 5 April 2024

Britannia (Rating: Buy; CMP: Rs4,813; TP: Rs5,854)

We expect Britannia’s revenue to increase by 5.6% YoY driven by 5.0% volume growth.
Channel check indicate that, rural hasn’t perform well during Jan/Feb, though saw marginal
recovery in March. Urban markets saw steady growth led by MT & E-commerce and
institutional channels. Distribution expansion is the key driver for BRIT’s growth, yet sharp
rise in local competition on the back of lower input cost may weigh on volume growth in
our view. Company passed on benefits occurred from benign inflation by way of increasing
grammage in value packs, yet step up premium portfolio and launching innovative product
could aid volume recovery in our view. Recently launched products such as milk shakes,
cheese cubes, ‘Be-You’ Nutri-bar saw good traction in urban, yet it saw limited pick up in
rural market. We believe cost optimisation and operating leverage would play out in the
long term as the scaling up of three plants in UP/TN/Bihar now taking speed. We expect
1.4% growth in EBITDA and expect EBITDA margin to 19.1% (-79bp) and adjusted net profit
to drop by 0.7% YoY.
Exhibit 7: Quarterly estimates
Britannia (Rs mn) Q4FY24 Q4FY23 YoY(%) Q3FY24 QoQ(%)
Revenue 42,464 40,231 5.6 42,563 (0.2)
EBITDA 8,118 8,008 1.4 8,211 (1.1)
EBITDA (%) 19.1 19.9 -79 bp 19.3 -17 bp
Adj. PAT 5,536 5,576 -0.7 5,586 (0.9)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Colgate-Palmolive (Rating: ADD; CMP: Rs2,707; TP: Rs2,862)

We expect Colgate-Palmolive to report 11.2% revenue growth in Q4, led by 6% growth in
volume. We believe CLGT’s efforts and accelerated marketing spend on creating
awareness/category relevance has aiding gradual volume recovery in urban market, yet
company focusing on distribution expansion to deepening penetration in rural area and gain
market share. Although revenues are expected to improve sequentially given CLGT’s efforts
on, (1) building science backed premium NPD, (2) enhancing freshness/therapeutics
segment in south, (3) amplifying ad-spend and market activation, and (4) product
diversification under Palmolive equity having high salience on MT/E-com. Intense
competition toothpaste and toothbrush might keep ad spend at elevated levels to~15% of
net sales. Given CLGT’s cost optimisation strategy and premiumise product mix, we expect
EBITDA to grow at 11.7%, settling EBITDA margins at 33.2% (+15bp) YoY. We expect
adjusted PAT to grow by 13.4%.
Exhibit 8: Quarterly estimates
Colgate Palmolive (Rs mn) Q4FY24 Q4FY23 YoY(%) Q3FY24 QoQ(%)
Revenue 14,920 13,417 11.2 13,864 7.6
EBITDA 4,949 4,430 11.7 4,592 7.8
EBITDA (%) 33.2 33.0 15 bp 33.1 5 bp
Adj. PAT 3,609 3,181 13.4 3,301 9.3
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 4

India Consumer 5 April 2024

Bajaj Consumer Care (Rating: BUY; CMP: Rs233; TP: Rs260)

We expect Bajaj Consumer care’s revenue to decline by 4.5% YoY on back of flattish volume
growth in ADHO portfolio, though overall volumes could grow ~5%. We believe demand
remains sluggish across core markets due to sticky food inflation and customer skewness
towards essentials, led to low discretionary spending. Bajaj consumer put offer on 100ml
offering 20% extra in UP markets and took ~2% price increases in large packs in Q4, yet saw
strong demand for large packs in MT & E-commerce in recent months, we believe
inflationary pressure to continue, and given this we expect Bajaj might take further price
increases in large packs. Recent launches of Henna, Gulab Jal, 100% coconut oil portfolio
faring well, though Almond-Drop extension gaining traction in E-com and MT channels. Its
non-ADHO contribution has now reached to 18%. Further softening commodity inflation
may influence gross margins, with step up on digital spends the company would continue
its ad-spends ~17-18% of sales could impact margin. Given this we expect EBITDA to decline
7.4%, settling EBITDA margin at 15.2% (-47bp) YoY. Net profit decline by 5.0% to Rs384.4mn.
Exhibit 9: Quarterly estimates
Bajaj Consumer Care (Rs mn) Q4FY24 Q4FY23 YoY(%) Q3FY24 QoQ(%)
Revenue 2,351 2,462 -4.5 2,364 (0.5)
EBITDA 356.4 384.8 -7.4 332.8 7.1
EBITDA (%) 15.2 15.6 -47 bp 14.1 108 bp
Adj. PAT 384.4 404.7 -5.0 363.6 5.7
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Emami (Rating: Buy; CMP: Rs447; TP: Rs610)

Emami draws ~55% sales from rural markets domestically and considering subdued demand
recovery in rural, the Q4 performance would be under pressure as per our on-ground
checks. Further delayed yet mild winter in the north region to cut demand for its flagship
healthcare products such as Zandu, Chawanprash, Boroplus etc. With lower discretionary
spends even growth in Fair and Handsome likely to be muted. We expect company to report
consol. revenue growth of 1.0% % on the back of 3% volumes growth in the domestic
business. D2C brands TMC/ Brillare expected to outperform contributing high single digit to
the top-line. Prioritizing distribution excellence through project Khoj coupled with pricing
action strategy could revive volumes. Further easing of input cost and entering into high
margin adjacencies with slight moderation in ad-spends (~18%) could lift EBITDA margins
25.6%. We expect Q3 EBITDA/PAT to grow at 8.2%/20.6% YoY.
Exhibit 10: Quarterly estimates
Emami (Rs mn) Q4FY24 Q4FY23 YoY(%) Q3FY24 QoQ(%)
Revenue 8,443 8,360 1.0 9,963 (15.3)
EBITDA 2,162 1,998 8.2 3,149 (31.3)
EBITDA (%) 25.6 23.9 171 bp 31.6 -599 bp
Adj. PAT 1,708 1,416 20.6 2,666 (35.9)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 5

India Consumer 5 April 2024

ITC (Rating: Buy; CMP: Rs422; TP: Rs556)

In Q4, we expect ITC to report 3.7% revenue growth led by strong growth in the hotel
segment and other FMCG portfolio. We expect ITC’s cigarette segment to grow ~6.0% in
value and ~3.0% in volume terms given mix change, despite lower consumption relative
stability in taxation saw volume recovery led by innovation in portfolio, improved product
accessibility & exceptional on ground execution. We expect FMCG segment to continue its
growth momentum, expected to report 9.0% growth led by food (~80% of revenue), future
growth vectors for foods include, conversion from unbranded to branded, penetrating
emerging markets, smart Omni channel network. Despite high base in the hotels segment
could report ~20.0% growth YoY with strong domestic tourism demand across hotel
segments and heightened demand from corporate bookings, backed by strong occupancy
rate/ARR. Sharp cyclical correction in paper is now behind, marginal uptick in packaging
solution for paper segment with ~2.0% growth in revenues. We expect agri business to
further decline ~11.0% YoY given restricted opportunity in wheat and rice exports. On
operating margin front, we expect EBITDA to grow at 4.3% with EBITDA margins at 37.0% (-
22bp). We expect net profit to increase by 8.0% YoY.
Exhibit 11: Quarterly estimates
ITC (Rs mn) Q4FY24 Q4FY23 YoY(%) Q3FY24 QoQ(%)
Revenue 1,67,104 1,61,159 3.7 1,63,142 2.4
EBITDA 61,832 59,273 4.3 58,552 5.6
EBITDA (%) 37.0 36.8 22 bp 35.9 111 bp
Adj. PAT 54,157 50,140 8.0 55,776 (2.9)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Godfrey Phillips (Rating: Buy; CMP: Rs3,207)

We expect Godfrey Phillips to post revenue growth of 11.7% given recovery in cigarette
revenues in its key markets driven by 8.0% volume growth. Our interactions with channel
partners suggest strong growth in Marlboro led by ‘Marlboro compact’ priced at Rs.10.
Normalised consumer activities, higher demand in core markets J&K/MH/ Guj/Raj, strong
tailwinds for RSFT segment and also Marlboro entry into the DSFT segment (64mm) to lift
volumes & with increased footprint for TFS we expect operating leverage to drive
profitability. We consider higher leaf tobacco exports may drive inferior mix leading EBITDA
margin at 18.7% (-30bp). We expect EBITDA/adjusted PAT to grow 9.9%/17.6%.
Exhibit 12: Quarterly estimates
Godfrey (Rs mn) Q4FY24 Q4FY23 YoY(%) Q3FY24 QoQ(%)
Revenue 8,826 7,901 11.7 12,354 (28.6)
EBITDA 1,650 1,501 9.9 2,103 (21.5)
EBITDA (%) 18.7 19.0 -30 bp 17.0 168 bp
Adj. PAT 1,353 1,151 17.6 2,456 (44.9)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 6

India Consumer 5 April 2024

VST Industries (Rating: Buy; CMP: Rs3,641; TP: Rs3,943)

With weak recovery in its key markets, we expect VST to report 3.6% revenue growth, while
volume expect to decline ~-2%. We believe with demand recovery in rural underway its
dominant business in DSFT segment saw weaker growth. We expect rural demand to
bounce back with a lag and expect VST to launch more products in the RSFT segment other
than “Edition”. Though near term demand would improve gradually on the back of steady
recovery in rural markets, higher leaf tobacco and packaging material prices put pressure
on margins. To mitigate cost pressure, VST has already rationalised trade discounts
expecting to settle for low single digit volume growth, however delayed recovery in rural
markets show up decline in volume even in Q4FY24. We expect VST’s EBITDA to increase by
1.7% with an operating margin of 26.5% (-49bp) and PAT decline by 6.3% on the same
period.
Exhibit 13: Quarterly estimates
VST (Rs mn) Q4FY24 Q4FY23 YoY(%) Q3FY24 QoQ(%)
Revenue 3,117 3,009 3.6 3,618 (13.9)
EBITDA 826 812 1.7 716.1 15.3
EBITDA (%) 26.5 27.0 -49 bp 19.8 671 bp
Adj. PAT 643.4 687.0 -6.3 537.2 19.8
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Asian Paints (Rating: Buy; CMP: Rs2,918; TP: Rs3,820)

We expect Asian Paints to report 5.2% growth in net sales on the high base of ~11% last
year, driven by 10.0% growth in volumes in the domestic decorative paints aided by market
share gains, and premiumisation trend. Channel checks indicate post festival season
demand remain sluggish, yet picked up in Feb/Mar on back of, (1) high demand for exterior
paints, (2) APNT has launched new products, Bharat Distemper in north and Ultima protekt
in south, (3) strong traction in damp proof segment led by high priced extreme series, and
(4) uptick in water proofing/project business, moreover APNT has executed price cuts of
Rs15.0/Rs2 per litre in premium/economy emulsion in Feb’24 to drive volumes growth.
We believe international market, Nepal, Bangladesh & Egypt challenges would continue
while expect other parts would perform well. APNT displayed cautious view led by evolving
geo-political tensions to impact crude oil prices yet maintained balancing operating
margins. We believe the company’s focus to address the bottom-of-pyramid is likely to
continue driving growth in decorative paints. We expect EBITDA/PAT would grow by
5.1%/6.0% YoY.
Exhibit 14: Quarterly estimates
Asian Paints - Consolidated (Rs mn) Q4FY24 Q4FY23 YoY(%) Q3FY24 QoQ(%)
Revenue 92,443 87,873 5.2 91,031 1.6
EBITDA 19,603 18,648 5.1 20,561 (4.7)
EBITDA (%) 21.2 21.2 -2 bp 22.6 -138 bp
Adj. PAT 13,597 12,831 6.0 14,752 (7.8)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 7

India Consumer 5 April 2024

Mild winter/sticky food inflation cut down volume growth

negative to mid-single digit
We expect most staples categories to report low-single-digit volume growth yet paints/oral
care to report high-single–digit volume growth. Our ground checks indicate amid high food
inflation and sluggish income growth, revenues for high rural facing companies to be muted.
We attribute this to, (1) delayed yet mild winter, (2) uneven economic recovery, (3) sticky
food inflation, and (4) consumption shift towards essential purchases. That said, such impact
was seen higher in the north (PJB & Har), and central region. Aggressive discounting/ pricing
coupled with local marketing support, the unorganised players winning sales in rural pockets.
We expect, with stable Rabi crop and govt. initiatives to drive macro-economic recovery may
reflect in demand recovery post Q1in FY25. We believe APNT and ITC to outperform. Urban
markets tracked well led by strong growth in MT/e-com channel yet GT saw rising inventory.
The weakness was more noticeable in the wholesale channel located in tier 2/3/4 towns.
Our interaction with channel partners directed, (1) with benign input prices, local
competition devouring market share in mass consumption categories as consumers down-
trade, especially in soaps/detergents/biscuit, (2) premium packaged food/oral-care saw
traction in the MT/e-com driven by large packs, (3) hair oils/BPC categories saw muted
volumes due to competition from D2C players and (4) with intensifying competition we
expect price cuts in paints, though APNT may be unruffled given strategic moat. Our Q4FY24
revenue growth estimates: GP (+11.7%), CLGT (+11.2%), BRIT (+5.6%), DABUR (+5.6%) APNT
(+5.2%), ITC (+3.7%), VST (3.6%), EMAMI (+1.0%), HUL (0.5%) and BAJCON (-4.5%).
Exhibit 15: Q4 revenue growth for the past two years
25.0
Q4FY22 Q4FY23 Q4FY24
20.0

15.0

10.0
%

5.0

-
Colgate

Dabur

Emami
Asian paints

Godfrey Phillip
Bajaj Consumer

ITC

VST Industries
HUL
Britannia

(5.0)

(10.0)

(15.0)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 8

India Consumer 5 April 2024
Exhibit 16: Q4 volume growth for the past two years
20.0 Q4FY22 Q4FY23 Q4FY24
15.0

10.0

5.0

%
(5.0)

(10.0)

(15.0)

Colgate

Dabur
Asian paints

Emami

Godfrey Phillip
Bajaj Consumer

ITC

VST Industries
HUL
Britannia
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Muted RM cost, yet intense competition, elevated

ad/promotional spend to check margins
We reckon, sequential decline in RM prices, though few risen, to reflect sequential improvement
in gross margin, however most companies chose to reinvestment savings in A & P spends for
brand building and support NPD may hold margins in our view. Higher sales from leaf tobacco
may cut margins for cigarette companies. Major RM prices have dropped YoY. Milk powder (-
23%), Soda ash (-21%), Milk (-20%), Mentha Oil (-19%), Copra (-18%), TiO2 (-13%), Tea (-11%),
HDPE (-8.0%), Wheat (-3%), Crude palm oil (-1%), while risen for Sugar (+8%) and PFAD (+4%).
Our EBITDA margin assumptions: ITC (37.0%), CLGT (33.2%), VST (26.5%), EMAMI (25.6%),
HUL (22.9%), APNT (21.2%), BRIT (19.1%), GP (18.7%), DABUR (18.7%) and BAJCON (15.2%).
Exhibit 17: Q4 EBITDA margin trends for the past two years
Q4FY22 Q4FY23 Q4FY24
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
%

15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Colgate

Dabur
Asian paints

Emami

Godfrey Phillip

ITC

VST Industries
Bajaj Consumer

HUL
Britannia

Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 9

 Rs/ kg USD/ tonne Rs
Rs/ 50kg

60
64
68
72
76
80
84
88

1050
1250
1450
1650
1850

250
450
650
850

2500
2900
3300
3700
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500

0
500
Jun-19 Jun-19
Jun-19 Jun-19
Sep-19 Sep-19
India Consumer

Sep-19 Sep-19
Dec-19 Dec-19
Dec-19 Dec-19
Mar-20 Mar-20
Mar-20 Mar-20
Jun-20 Jun-20
Jun-20 Jun-20 Sep-20
Sep-20 Sep-20 Sep-20
Dec-20 Dec-20
Dec-20 Dec-20
Mar-21 Mar-21
Mar-21

Centrum Institutional Research

Mar-21 Jun-21
Jun-21 Jun-21 Jun-21

PFAD
Sep-21 Sep-21
Sep-21

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Centrum Broking

Sep-21 Dec-21

Sugar
Dec-21 Dec-21

Soda Ash
Dec-21 Mar-22
USD/ INR

Mar-22 Mar-22 Mar-22 Jun-22

Jun-22 Jun-22
Sep-22 Jun-22 Sep-22
Sep-22 Sep-22
Dec-22 Dec-22
Dec-22 Dec-22
Mar-23 Mar-23
Mar-23 Mar-23
Jun-23 Jun-23
Jun-23 Jun-23
Sep-23 Sep-23
Sep-23 Sep-23
Dec-23 Dec-23
Dec-23 Dec-23
Mar-24 Mar-24
Mar-24 Mar-24

Rs/ kg Rs/ kg USD/ mtric tonne MYR/ tonne

1000
1500
2000

0
500

240
290
340
390
440
490

1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1000
2000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000

3000

900
Jun-19 Jun-19
Jun-19 Jun-19
Sep-19 Sep-19
Sep-19 Sep-19
Dec-19 Dec-19
Dec-19 Dec-19
Mar-20 Mar-20
Mar-20 Mar-20
Jun-20 Jun-20
Jun-20 Jun-20
Sep-20 Sep-20
Sep-20
Raw material price trends

Sep-20
Dec-20 Dec-20
Dec-20 Dec-20
Mar-21 Mar-21 Mar-21
Mar-21
Jun-21 Jun-21 Jun-21
TiO2

Jun-21
Sep-21 Sep-21
HDPE

Sep-21

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Centrum Broking

Sep-21
Dec-21 Dec-21 Dec-21
Dec-21

Mentha Oil
Mar-22 Mar-22 Mar-22
Mar-22
Crude Palm Oil

Jun-22 Jun-22 Jun-22

Jun-22
Sep-22 Sep-22 Sep-22
Sep-22
Dec-22 Dec-22 Dec-22
Dec-22
Mar-23 Mar-23 Mar-23
Mar-23
Jun-23 Jun-23 Jun-23
Jun-23
Sep-23 Sep-23 Sep-23
Sep-23
Dec-23 Dec-23 Dec-23
Dec-23
Mar-24 Mar-24 Mar-24 Mar-24

10
5 April 2024
 Rs/ kg Rs/ ltr Rs/ Quintal

20
30
40
50
60
70
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000

500

180
225
270
315
360
405
450
Jun-19
Jun-19 Sep-19 Jun-19
India Consumer

Sep-19 Dec-19 Sep-19

Dec-19 Mar-20 Dec-19
Mar-20 Mar-20
Jun-20
Jun-20 Jun-20
Sep-20
Sep-20 Sep-20
Dec-20
Dec-20 Dec-20
Mar-21
Mar-21

Centrum Institutional Research

Mar-21
Jun-21 Jun-21
Jun-21

Tea
Milk
Sep-21

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Centrum Broking

Wheat

Sep-21 Sep-21
Dec-21 Dec-21
Dec-21
Mar-22 Mar-22
Mar-22
Jun-22 Jun-22
Jun-22
Sep-22 Sep-22
Sep-22
Dec-22 Dec-22
Dec-22
Mar-23 Mar-23
Mar-23
Jun-23 Jun-23
Jun-23
Sep-23 Sep-23
Sep-23
Dec-23 Dec-23
Dec-23
Mar-24 Mar-24
Mar-24

Rs/ quintal USD/ barrel Rs/ kg

180
225
270
315
360
450

405

0
25
50
75
100
125

Jun-19 Jun-19

10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
Sep-19 Sep-19
Jun-19
Dec-19 Dec-19
Sep-19
Mar-20 Mar-20
Dec-19
Jun-20 Jun-20
Mar-20
Sep-20 Sep-20
Jun-20
Sep-20 Dec-20 Dec-20
Dec-20 Mar-21 Mar-21
Mar-21 Jun-21 Jun-21
Jun-21 Sep-21 Sep-21

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Centrum Broking

Tea

Sep-21 Dec-21 Dec-21

Copra

Dec-21 Mar-22 Mar-22

Brent Crude

Mar-22 Jun-22
Jun-22
Jun-22 Sep-22
Sep-22
Sep-22 Dec-22
Dec-22
Dec-22 Mar-23
Raw material price trends (continued)

Mar-23 Mar-23
Jun-23
Jun-23 Jun-23
Sep-23
Sep-23 Sep-23
Dec-23
Dec-23 Dec-23
Mar-24
Mar-24 Mar-24

11
5 April 2024
India Consumer 5 April 2024

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were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results, and such variances will likely increase over time. All projections and forecasts described in this report
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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Broking and are given as of this
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Centrum Institutional Research 12

 India Consumer 5 April 2024
of any transaction. No part of this document may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom. The information contained herein is not intended for
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Ratings definitions
Our ratings denote the following 12-month forecast returns:
Buy – The stock is expected to return above 15%.
Add – The stock is expected to return 5-15%.
Reduce – The stock is expected to deliver -5-+5% returns.
Sell – The stock is expected to deliver <-5% returns.
Source: Bloomberg
HUl Dabur Britannia Industries

Colgate-Palmolive Emami Bajaj Consumer

ITC Godfrey Phillip VST Industries

Asian Paints

Source: Bloomberg

Centrum Institutional Research 13

India Consumer 5 April 2024

Disclosure of Interest Statement

1 Business activities of Centrum Broking Centrum Broking Limited (hereinafter referred to as “CBL”) is a registered member of NSE (Cash, F&O and Currency Derivatives
Limited (CBL) Segments), MCX-SX (Currency Derivatives Segment) and BSE (Cash segment), Depository Participant of CDSL and a SEBI registered
Portfolio Manager.
2 Details of Disciplinary History of CBL CBL has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority from accessing /dealing in securities market.

3 Registration status of CBL: CBL is registered with SEBI as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001469)
Colgate- Bajaj Godfrey VST
HUL Dabur Britannia Emami ITC Asian Paints
Palmolive consumer Phillip Industries
4 Whether Research analyst’s or relatives’ have any financial
interest in the subject company and nature of such financial No No No No No No No No No No
interest
5 Whether Research analyst or relatives have actual / beneficial
ownership of 1% or more in securities of the subject company at
No No No No No No No No No No
the end of the month immediately preceding the date of
publication of the document.
6 Whether the research analyst or his relatives has any other
No No No No No No No No No No
material conflict of interest
7 Whether research analyst has received any compensation from
the subject company in the past 12 months and nature of No No No No No No No No No No
products / services for which such compensation is received
8 Whether the Research Analyst has received any compensation or
any other benefits from the subject company or third party in No No No No No No No No No No
connection with the research report
9 Whether Research Analysts has served as an officer, director or
No No No No No No No No No No
employee of the subject company
Whether the Research Analyst has been engaged in market
10 No No No No No No No No No No
making activity of the subject company.
Whether it or its associates have managed or co-managed public
11 offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve No No No No No No No No No No
months;
Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for
12 investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services No No No No No No No No No No
from the subject company in the past twelve months;
Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for
products or services other than investment banking or merchant
13 No No No No No No No No No No
banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the
past twelve months;

Centrum Institutional Research 14

India Consumer 5 April 2024
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Centrum Institutional Research 15