Discrete Probability

Distributions
Chapter 6

1
Learning Objectives

LO6-1 Identify the characteristics of a probability distribution

LO6-2 Distinguish between discrete and continuous random variables
LO6-3 Compute the mean, variance, and standard deviation of a discrete probability
distribution
LO6-4 Explain the assumptions of the binomial distribution and apply them to calculate
probabilities
LO6-5 Explain the assumptions of the hypergeometric distribution and apply them to
calculate probabilities
LO6-6 Explain the assumptions of the Poisson distribution and apply them to calculate
probabilities
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What is a Probability Distribution?

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION A listing of all the outcomes of an experiment and the probability associated with
each outcome.

CHARACTERISTICS OF A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

1. The probability of a particular outcome is between 0 and 1 inclusive.
2. The outcomes are mutually exclusive.
3. The list of outcomes is exhaustive. So the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes is equal to 1.

Example: A drug manufacturer may claim a treatment will cause weight loss for 80% of the
population. This claim could be tested by a consumer protection agency using a
sample and statistical inference.
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Probability Distribution Example

Suppose we are interested in the number of heads showing face up with 3 tosses of a coin
The possible outcomes are 0 heads, 1 head, 2 heads, and 3 heads

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Probability Distribution Table

Probability distribution table and chart for the events of zero, one, two, and three heads

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Random Variables

In any experiment of chance, the outcomes occur randomly, and so are called random
variables
RANDOM VARIABLE A quantity resulting from an experiment that, by chance, can assume different
values.

Examples
• The number of employees absent from the day shift on Monday, the number might be 0,
1, 2, 3, …The number absent is the random variable
• The grade level (Freshman, Sophomore, Junior, or Senior) of the members of the St.
James High School Varsity girls’ basketball team. Grade level is the random variable
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Two Types of Random Variables

One type of random variable is the discrete random variable

Discrete variables are usually the result of counting

DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE A random variable that can assume only

certain clearly separated values.

Examples
• Tossing a coin three times and counting the number of heads
• A bank counting the number of credit cards carried by a group of customers
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Discrete Random Variable

For example, the Bank of the Carolinas counts the number of credit cards carried by a group
of customers
The number of cards carried is the discrete random variable
Number of Credit Cards Relative Frequency
0 0.03
1 0.10
2 0.18
3 0.21
4 or more 0.48
Total 1.00
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Continuous Random Variables

• Continuous random variables can assume an infinite number of values within a given
range
• Continuous variables are usually the result of measuring
Examples
• The time between flights between Atlanta and LA are 4.67 hours, 5.13 hours, and so on
• The annual snowfall in Minneapolis, MN measured in inches

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Mean and Variance of a Probability Distribution

The mean is a typical value used to represent the central location of the data
The mean is also referred to as the expected value

The amount of spread (or variation) in the data is described by the variance

The standard deviation of the probability distribution is the positive square root of the
variance
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Probability Distribution Mean Example

John Ragsdale sells new cars for Pelican Ford. 1. What type of distribution is this? discrete
John usually sells the most cars on Saturday. He 2. How many cars does John expect to sell on a
has developed a probability distribution for the typical Saturday? mean = 2.1
number of cars he expects to sell on Saturday. 3. What is the variance?

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Probability Distribution Variance Example

The computational steps for variance:

• Subtract the mean from each value of x and square
• Multiply each squared difference by its probability
• Sum the resulting products to arrive at the variance

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Binomial Distribution

There are four requirements of a binomial probability distribution

1. There are only two possible outcomes and the outcomes are mutually exclusive, as either a success
or a failure
2. The number of trials is fixed and known
3. The probability of a success is the same for each trial
4. Each trial is independent of any other trial

Example
A young family has two children, both boys. The probability of the third birth being a boy is
still .50. The gender of the third child is independent of the gender of the other two.
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Binomial Probability Experiment

Use the number of trials, n, and the probability of a success, π, to compute binomial probability

BINOMIAL PROBABILITY EXPERIMENT

1. An outcome on each trial of an experiment is classified into one of two
mutually exclusive categories — a success or a failure.
2. The random variable is the number of successes in a fixed number of trials.
3. The probability of success is the same for each trial.
4. The trials are independent, meaning that the outcome of one trial does not
affect the outcome of any other trial.
Note: Do not confuse the symbol π, with the mathematical constant 3.1416
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How is a Binomial Probability Computed?

There are five flights daily from Pittsburgh via US Airways into the Bradford Regional Airport
in Bradford, Pennsylvania. Suppose the probability that any flight arrives late is .20.
What is the probability that none of P(x) = nCr(π)r 1 − π n − r
the flights are late today? P(0) = 5C0(.20)0 1 − .20 5 − 0 = (1)(1)(.3277) = .3277

What is the probability that exactly P(x) = nCr(π)r 1 − π n − r 5

one of the flights is late today? P(1) = 5C1(.20)1 1 − .20 5 − 1 = (1)(1)(.4096) = .4096
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Binomial Probability Distribution

There are five flights daily from Pittsburgh via US Airways into the Bradford Regional Airport in Bradford,
Pennsylvania. Suppose the probability that any flight arrives late is .20. What is the probability that none of the
flights is late today? What is the probability that exactly 1 of the flights is late today?

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Shortcut Formulas

Using the preceding example of flights into Bradford Airport; n=5 and π = 0.20 and the
shortcut formulas
μ=nπ
μ = 5 .20 = 1.00
σ2 = nπ 1 − π
σ2 = 5 .20 1 − .20 = .80
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Binomial Probability Tables

In the Southwest, 5% of all cell phone calls are dropped. What is the probability that out of six randomly
selected calls, none was dropped? Exactly one? Exactly two? Exactly three? Exactly four? Exactly five? Exactly
six out of six? See the table below for the answers.
Tables are already constructed for use as well

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Cumulative Binomial Probability Distributions

A study by the Illinois Department of Transportation concluded that 76.2% of front seat occupants wore seat
belts. That is, both occupants of the front seat were using their seat belts. Suppose we decide to compare that
information with current usage. We select a sample of 12 vehicles.
1. What is the probability that the front seat occupants in exactly 7 of the 12 vehicles are wearing seat belts?
P(x) = nCr(π)r 1 − π n−r

P(x=7) = 12C7(.762)7 1 − .762 12 − 7 = 792(0.149171)(0.000764) = 0.0902

2. What is the probability that at least 7 of the 12 front seat occupants are wearing seat belts?
P(x≥7) = P(x=7) + P(x=8) + P(x=9) + P(x=10) + P(x=11) + P(x=12)
=0.0902 + 0.1805 + 0.2569 + 0.2467 + 0.1436 + 0.0383 = 0.9562

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Hypergeometric Distribution

When sampling from relatively small populations without replacement, use the
hypergeometric distribution
HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY EXPERIMENT
1. An outcome on each trial of an experiment is classified into one of two
mutually exclusive categories — a success or a failure.
2. The random variable is the number of successes in a fixed number of trials.
3. The trials are not independent.
4. We assume that we sample from a finite population without replacement
and n/N > 0.05. So, the probability of a success changes for each trial.
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 Hypergeometric Formula

PlayTime Toys Inc. employs 50 people in the (40𝐶4)(50−40𝐶5−4)

Assembly Dept. Forty of the employees belong to 𝑃 4 =
50𝐶5
a union and 10 do not. Five employees are
=
selected at random to form a committee. What is (91,390)(10)
= 0.431
the probability that four of the five belong to a 2,118,760
union?
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Hypergeometric Probabilities

Union Members Probability

0 0.000
1 0.004
2 0.044
3 0.210
4 0.431
5 0.311
1.000

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Poisson Probability Distribution

This describes the number of times some event occurs during a specified interval
The interval can be time, distance, area, or volume
Two assumptions
• The probability is proportional to the length of the interval
• The intervals are independent
The Poisson has many applications like describing
• The distribution of errors in data entry
• The number of accidents on I-75 during a three-month period

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Poisson Distribution

POISSON PROBABILITY EXPERIMENT

1. The random variable is the number of times some event occurs during a defined interval.
2. The probability of the event is proportional to the size of the interval.
3. The intervals do not overlap and are independent.

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Poisson Distribution Example

Budget Airlines is a seasonal airline that operates flights from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, to various
cities in the northeast. Recently Budget has been concerned about the number of lost bags. Ann Poston
from the Analytics Department was asked to study the issue. She randomly selected a sample of 500 flights
and found that a total of twenty bags were lost on the sampled flights.
The mean number of bags lost, μ, is found by 20/500 = 0.04
The probability that no bags are lost is found using formula 6-7.
μxe−μ 0.040𝑒−0.04
P 0 = = = 0.9608
x! 0!
Then calculate the probability that one or more bags is lost.
μxe−μ 0.040𝑒 −0.04
P(x≥1) =1-P 0 = 1 − =1- = 1- 0.9608 = 0.0392
x! 0!

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Poisson Probability Distribution Tables

NewYork-LA Trucking company finds the mean number of breakdowns on the New York to Los Angeles route
is 0.30. From the table, we can locate the probability of no breakdowns on a particular run. Find the column
0.3, then read down that column to the row labeled 0; the value is 0.7408. The probability of 1 breakdown is
0.2222

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