2021 International Conference on Software Engineering & Computer Systems and 4th International Conference on

Computational Science and Information Management (ICSECS-ICOCSIM)

2021 International Conference on Software Engineering & Computer Systems and 4th International Conference on Computational Science and Information Management (ICSECS-ICOCSIM) | 978-1-6654-1407-4/21/$31.00 ©2021 IEEE | DOI: 10.1109/ICSECS52883.2021.00091

&RPSXWHUDLGHGV\VWHPIRUH[WHQGLQJWKH
SHUIRUPDQFHRIGLDEHWHVDQDO\VLVDQGSUHGLFWLRQ
6D\GXO$NEDU0XUDG =DIULO5L]DO0$]PL =DLG+DIL]+DNDPL
)DFXOW\RI&RPSXWLQJ )DFXOW\RI&RPSXWLQJ )DFXOW\RI&RPSXWHU6FLHQFH 
8QLYHUVLWL0DOD\VLD3DKDQJ 8QLYHUVLWL0DOD\VLD3DKDQJ ,QIRUPDWLRQ7HFKQRORJ\
0DOD\VLD 0DOD\VLD -D]DQ8QLYHUVLW\-D]DQ6DXGL
VD\GXODNEDUPXUDG#JPDLOFRP ]DIULO#XPSHGXP\ $UDELD
  ]KKDNDPL#MD]DQXHGXVD


1XVUDW-DKDQ3URWWDVKD 0G.RZVKHU
'HSDUWPHQWRI&RPSXWHU6FLHQFHDQG(QJLQHHULQJ 'HSDUWPHQWRI$SSOLHGPDWKHPDWLFV
'DIIRGLOV,QWHUQDWLRQDO8QLYHUVLW\ 1RDNKDOL6FLHQFHDQG7HFKQRORJ\8QLYHUVLW\
%DQJODGHVK %DQJODGHVK
MDKDQQXVUDWSURWWD#JPDLOFRP JDNRZVKHU#JPDLOFRP


$EVWUDFW (YHU\ \HDU GLDEHWHV FDXVHV KHDOWK GLIILFXOWLHV IRU JOXFRVH WR WKH ERG\ V FHOOV $ GLDEHWLF SDWLHQW V ERG\ HLWKHU
KXQGUHGV RI PLOOLRQV RI LQGLYLGXDOV WKURXJKRXW WKH ZRUOG SURGXFHV LQVXIILFLHQW LQVXOLQ RU LV XQDEOH WR XWLOL]H LW
3DWLHQWV PHGLFDOUHFRUGVPD\EHXWLOL]HGWRTXDQWLI\V\PSWRPV HIIHFWLYHO\
SK\VLFDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDQGFOLQLFDOODERUDWRU\WHVWGDWDZKLFK
7KLV UHVHDUFK KDV IRFXVHG RQ 7\SH GLDEHWHV :H KDYH
PD\ WKHQ EH XWLOL]HG WR XQGHUWDNH ELRVWDWLVWLFV DQDO\VLV WR
WULHGWRILQGRXWE\ZKLFKUHDVRQSHRSOHDUHPRVWDIIHFWHGRU
XQFRYHU SDWWHUQVRU FKDUDFWHULVWLFVWKDWDUH QRZXQGHWHFWHG ,Q
WKLVZRUNZHKDYHXVHGVL[PDFKLQHOHDUQLQJDOJRULWKPVWRJLYH OHVVDIIHFWHGDQGJLYHWKHSUHGLFWLRQRIGLDEHWHVE\HYDOXDWLQJ
WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RI GLDEHWHV SDWLHQWV DQG WKH UHDVRQ IRU GLDEHWHV VRPHIHDWXUHVVXFKDVDJHJHQHWLFKLVWRU\HWF>@)RUWKLV
DUH LOOXVWUDWHG LQ SHUFHQWDJH XVLQJ SLH FKDUWV 7KH PDFKLQH UHVHDUFKZHKDYHXVHGDODUJHGDWDVHWZKHUHGDWDLVFROOHFWHG
OHDUQLQJDOJRULWKPVXVHGWRSUHGLFWWKHULVNVRI7\SHGLDEHWHV IURPGLDEHWHVSDWLHQWVDQGQRQSDWLHQWSHRSOH7RDQDO\]HWKLV
8VHUFDQVHOIDVVHVVWKHLUGLDEHWHVULVNRQFHWKH PRGHOKDVEHHQ GDWDVHW ZH KDYH XVHG VHYHUDO PDFKLQH OHDUQLQJ FODVVLILHUV
WUDLQHG  %DVHG RQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO UHVXOWV LQ $GD%RRVW LQFOXGLQJ $GD%RRVW &ODVVLILHU 5DQGRP )RUHVW 7UHH
&ODVVLILHU VWKHDFFXUDF\DFKLHYHGLVDOPRVWSHUFHQW &ODVVLILHU .1HLJKERUV &ODVVLILHU %HUQRXOOL 1% 0/3
&ODVVLILHU DQG ,PSDFW /HDUQLQJ 7KLV UHVHDUFK ZLOO KHOS
.H\ZRUG¶V 'LDEHWHV $GD%RRVW &ODVVLILHU 5DQGRP )RUHVW
&ODVVLILHU .1HDUHVW 1HLJKERUV &ODVVLILHU %HUQRXOOL 1% 0/3 SHRSOHWREHFRQVFLRXVDERXWGLDEHWHV
&ODVVLILHUDQG,PSDFW/HDUQLQJ&ORXG&RPSXWLQJ 7KH IROORZLQJ VHFWLRQ GLVFXVVHG DERXW WKH UHODWHG ZRUN
,Q VHFWLRQ ,,, ZH GLVFXVVHG WKH PHWKRGRORJ\ LQYROYHG DQG
, , 1752'8&7,21 VHFWLRQ ,9 LV DERXW UHVXOW DQG GLVFXVVLRQ )LQDOO\ 6HFWLRQ 9

DQG9,GLVFXVVHGIXWXUHZRUNDQGFRQFOXVLRQUHVSHFWLYHO\
'LDEHWHV LV D PHWDEROLF FRQGLWLRQ WKDW RFFXUV ZKHQ D
SHUVRQ VEORRGVXJDUOHYHOVDUHWRRKLJK,WLVFDXVHGE\HLWKHU ,,5(/$7(' : 25.
WKH ERG\ V LQDELOLW\ WR FUHDWH HQRXJK LQVXOLQ RU WKH FHOOV  /H\HU HW DO UHVHDUFK DWWLWXGHV RI HDFK SHUVRQ ZKR LV
LQDELOLW\WRUHDFWWRWKHLQVXOLQWKDWLVJHQHUDWHG>@'LDEHWLF DIIHFWHG E\ W\SH GLDEHWHV WR VROYH K\SRJO\FHPLD >@
GLDJQRVLV QHFHVVLWDWHV D SUHFLVH HYDOXDWLRQ RI GLDEHWHV IDFWV äLOLQVNLHQơ-RODQWDHWDOWULHVWRILQGDFRQQHFWLRQEHWZHHQ
$V D UHVXOW GLDEHWHV GDWD DQDO\VLV IRU GLDEHWHV FRQWURO KDV PRWKHUV¶ SDUHQWLQJ VW\OH 36  DQG WKHLU FKLOGUHQ ZLWK W\SH ,
EHFRPH D IDVFLQDWLQJ VWXG\ WRSLF >@ 'LDEHWHV DIIHFWV RYHU GLDEHWHV 7'0  GLVHDVH PDQDJHPHQW >@ -DLQ %KDYLQL HW
ELOOLRQSHRSOHZRUOGZLGHZLWKZRPHQDFFRXQWLQJIRUWKH DO SUHVHQWHG D SUHGLFWLRQ RI GLDEHWHV XVLQJ V\PSWRPV RI D
EXON RI WKRVH DIIHFWHG >@ $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH :RUOG +HDOWK SHUVRQ DQG VKRZHG WKH FKDQJLQJ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV >@ $EDNHU
2UJDQL]DWLRQ V PHGLFDO VWXG\ WKLV QXPEHU LV SUHGLFWHG WR $OL$HWDOHVWDEOLVKHGDPRGHOWRGHFLGHZKHWKHUDGLDEHWHV
UHDFK QHDU RU EH\RQG  ELOOLRQ E\  >@ :KHQ EORRG SDWLHQWVKRXOGEHDGPLWWHGLQWRKRVSLWDORUKRPH>@6DKRR
VXJDU OHYHOV DUH KLJKHU WKDQ XVXDO  WR PPRO/  D 3UL\DEUDWD *HQHUDWHG D PRGHO IRU SUHGLFWLQJ GLDEHWHV EDVHG
SHUVRQ LV VDLG WR KDYH GLDEHWHV ,QVXOLQ LV D KRUPRQH RQLPSRUWDQWDWWULEXWHV>@6D[HQDHWDOWULHVWRLPSURYHRXU
JHQHUDWHG E\ WKH SDQFUHDV ZKLFK LV LQ FKDUJH RI VXSSO\LQJ NQRZOHGJHRIGLDEHWHV PHOOLWXVRQVHWSUHGLFWLRQ>@/L-XQ

978-1-6654-1407-4/21/$31.00 ©2021 IEEE 465

DOI 10.1109/ICSECS52883.2021.00091
Authorized licensed use limited to: Shiv Ram Das Gulati Memorial Society. Downloaded on November 23,2023 at 09:22:01 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
 HWDOGHYHORSDQRQLQYDVLYH GLDEHWLF¶VULVNSUHGLFWLRQ PRGHO '+ 'LDEHWHV+LVWRU\/16+ /DWHQLJKWVOHHSKDELW
EDVHGRQWRQJXHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVIXVLRQDQGHVWLPDWHWKHULVNRI /:+ /DWHZDNHXSKDELW6$( 6OHHSDIWHUHDWLQJ
SUHGLDEHWLFVDQGGLDEHWLFVXVLQJPDFKLQHOHDUQLQJWHFKQLTXHV &'DWD3UH3URFHVVLQJ
>@$ERNK]DPHWDOSURSRVHGDWHFKQLTXHEDVHGRQWKH0/ 
*ULG 6HDUFK DOJRULWKP LV VXJJHVWHG IRU HIILFLHQWO\ DQG )RU GDWD SUHSURFHVVLQJ ZH KDYH XVHG PHDQ DQG PHGLDQ
$FRPSXWDWLRQLVXVHGWRILQGWKHPHDQZKLFKLVWKHVDPHDV
VXFFHVVIXOO\ GLDJQRVLQJ 'LDEHWHV 0HOOLWXV >@ *XSWD
WKH DYHUDJH YDOXH RI D GDWD FROOHFWLRQ 'LYLGH WKH WRWDO
'HHSDN HW DO LQYHVWLJDWHV DQG HYDOXDWHV VHYHUDO PDFKLQH QXPEHU RI YDOXHV LQ WKH GDWD VHW E\ WKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI
OHDUQLQJ 0/  DOJRULWKPV WKDW FDQ DLG LQ SUHGLFWLQJ GLDEHWHV QXPEHUVLQWKHGDWDVHW
ULVN DW DQ HDUO\ VWDJH DQG LPSURYLQJ GLDEHWHV PHGLFDO 
GLDJQRVLV >@ :DGKZD HW DO XVHV D KXJH DPRXQW RI '0HDQ(TXDWLRQ
PXOWLPRGDO SDWLHQW GDWD XVHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ WR SHUIRUP 
FRUUHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ %0, EORRG SUHVVXUH JOXFRVH OHYHOV 7KH WRWDO RI DOO WKH GDWD LQ D GDWD VHW LV GLYLGHG E\ WKH
FRXQWQWRJHWWKHPHDQ[ࡃDVVKRZVLQ  
GLDEHWLFSHGLJUHHIXQFWLRQDQGVNLQWKLFNQHVVLQSDWLHQWVZLWK

GLDEHWHV RI YDULRXV DJHV >@ ,Q DGGLWLRQ .RZVKHU HW DO σ೙ ௑
 0HDQ [ࡃ ೔సబ ೙   
VKRZHG WKH SURFHGXUHV RI EHVW PHGLFDWLRQ GHWHFWLRQ RI ௡
GLDEHWHVZLWKDJRRGDFFXUDF\   
:KHQ QXPEHUV DUH JLYHQ LQ DVFHQGLQJ RU GHVFHQGLQJ RUGHU
8QOLNH WKH DERYHPHQWLRQHG ZRUNV WKLV UHVHDUFK
DQDO\]HGWKHUDWHRIFDXVHVDQGDOVRSHUIRUPHGWKHIRUHFDVWLQJ WKHPHGLDQLVWKHQXPEHULQWKHFHQWHUŁ
PRGHOWRJHQHUDWHWKHGLDEHWHVFRQGLWLRQRISDWLHQW 
(0HGLDQ(TXDWLRQ
,,0 (7+2'2/2*< 
 ,I WKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI REVHUYDWLRQV Q  LV DQ RGG
7KLV UHVHDUFK XVHV ILYH PDMRU VWHSV WR JHW WKH SUHGLFWLRQ QXPEHUWKHQWKHIRUPXODLVJLYHQLQ  
UHVXOWFRUSXVEXLOGLQJODEHOYHULILFDWLRQGDWDSUHSRVVHVVLQJ 
௡ାଵ
WUDLQLQJGDWDXVLQJ0/DOJRULWKPVDQGSUHGLFWLRQV7KHGDWD  0HGLDQ ሺ ሻ௧௛ ‫  ݏ݊݋݅ݐܽݒݎ݁ݏܾ݋‬
ଶ
TXDOLW\ LV PDLQWDLQHG E\ WKH ODUJH QXPEHU RI VDPSOHV DQG ,IWKHWRWDOQXPEHURIWKHREVHUYDWLRQV Q LVDQHYHQ
DGHTXDWHGLYHUVHYDULDWLRQ QXPEHUWKHQWKHIRUPXODLVJLYHQLQ  

೙ ೙
$ 'DWD6RXUFHV ሺ మ ሻ೟೓ ௢௕௦௘௥௩௔௧௜௢௡ାሺ మ ାଵሻ೟೓ ௢௕௦௘௥௩௔௧௜௢௡
0HGLDQ    
:H JDWKHUHG GDWD IRU WKH FRUSXV E\ XVLQJ VRFLDO PHGLD ଶ

SODWIRUPV ZKHUH LQGLYLGXDOV RIIHU WKHLU YDOXHG LGHDV :H 
JHQHUDWHGWZR*RRJOHIRUPVWRFROOHFWGDWDE\DVNLQJYDULRXV )0/$OJRULWKP
TXHVWLRQV 7KHUH LV D IRUP IRU SDWLHQWV DQG DQRWKHU IRU QRQ 
SDWLHQWVEXWDOOILHOGVDUHWKHVDPH7RWDOQXPEHURIFROOHFWHG ,Q WKLV ZRUN ZH XVHG VL[ DOJRULWKP DQG WKHVH DOJRULWKPV
GDWD DUH  ZKHUH QRQ GLDEHWHV SDWLHQWV DUH  DQG DUH$GD%RRVW&ODVVLILHU5DQGRP)RUHVW&ODVVLILHU.1HDUHVW
GLDEHWHV SDWLHQWV DUH  7KHUH DUH  FROXPQV ZKLFK DUH 1HLJKERUV &ODVVLILHU %HUQRXOOL 1% 0/3 &ODVVLILHU DQG
DJHZHLJKWKHLJKWIDPLO\KLVWRU\ODWHQLJKWVOHHSKDELWODWH ,PSDFW/HDUQLQJ
ZDNHXSKDELWH[HUFLVHVOHHSDIWHUHDWLQJDGGLFWLRQVH[DQG 
KHDUWGLVHDVHV $GD%RRVW &ODVVLILHU $GDERRVW DOVR NQRZQ DV DGDSWLYH
 ERRVWLQJ LV D NLQG RI HQVHPEOH ERRVWLQJ >@ ,W FRPELQHV
%/DEHOLQJDQGYHULILFDWLRQ PDQ\ FODVVLILHUV WR LPSURYH FODVVLILHU DFFXUDF\ $GDERRVW V
7DEOH , VKRZV WKH FROOHFWHG GDWD IURP SDWLHQW DQG QRQ FRUH SULQFLSOH LV WR HVWDEOLVK WKH ZHLJKWV RI FODVVLILHUV DQG
SDWLHQW9DOXHLVIRUQRQSDWLHQWVDQGLVIRUSDWLHQWV WUDLQ WKH GDWD VDPSOH LQ HDFK LWHUDWLRQ VR WKDW UHOLDEOH
SUHGLFWLRQVRIXQFRPPRQREVHUYDWLRQVPD\EHPDGH
7$%/(,/$%(/,1*'$7$2)&2//(&7(''$7$6(7 7KHIROORZLQJVWHSIRU$GD%RRVW&ODVVLILHU
/HYHOLQJ  $GDERRVWUDQGRPO\VHOHFWVDWUDLQLQJVXEVHW
$JH :HLJKW KHLJKW '+ /16+ /:+ ([HUFLVH 6$( $GGLFWHG 1RQS
3   ,W WUDLQV WKH $GD%RRVW PDFKLQH OHDUQLQJ PRGHO
          UHSHDWHGO\ E\ SLFNLQJ WKH WUDLQLQJ VHW EDVHG RQ WKH
         
ODVWWUDLQLQJ VFRUUHFWSUHGLFWLRQ
         
           ,WJLYHVLQFRUUHFWO\FDWHJRUL]HGREVHUYDWLRQVDODUJHU
          ZHLJKW VR WKDW WKH\ KDYH D EHWWHU FKDQFH RI EHLQJ
FDWHJRUL]HGLQWKHQH[WLWHUDWLRQ

466

Authorized licensed use limited to: Shiv Ram Das Gulati Memorial Society. Downloaded on November 23,2023 at 09:22:01 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
  ,W GLVWULEXWHV ZHLJKW WR WKH WUDLQHG FODVVLILHU LQ HDFK .1HDUHVW 1HLJKERUV &ODVVLILHU 7KH .1HDUHVW 1HLJKERU
LWHUDWLRQEDVHGRQWKHFODVVLILHU VDFFXUDF\7KHPRUH PHWKRG >@ >@ LV EDVHG RQ WKH 6XSHUYLVHG /HDUQLQJ
SUHFLVHFODVVLILHUZLOOEHJLYHQPRUHZHLJKW WHFKQLTXH DQG LV RQH RI WKH PRVW EDVLF 0DFKLQH /HDUQLQJ
 7KLV DSSURDFK LV UHSHDWHG XQWLO DOO RI WKH WUDLQLQJ DOJRULWKPV 7KH .11 DOJRULWKP LV D QRQSDUDPHWULF
GDWD ILWV SHUIHFWO\ RU XQWLO WKH PD[LPXP QXPEHU RI DOJRULWKP ZKLFK PHDQV LW PDNHV QR DVVXPSWLRQV DERXW WKH
HVWLPDWRUVLVDFKLHYHG XQGHUO\LQJ GDWD ,W V DOVR NQRZQ DV D OD]\ OHDUQHU DOJRULWKP
 3HUIRUP D YRWH DFURVV DOO RI WKH OHDUQLQJ VLQFHLWGRHVQ WOHDUQIURPWKHWUDLQLQJVHWULJKWDZD\LQVWHDG
DOJRULWKPV\RXFUHDWHGWRFDWHJRULHV¶WKHP LW VDYHV WKH GDWDVHW DQG SHUIRUPV DQ DFWLRQ RQ LW ZKHQ LW
 FRPHV WLPH WR FODVVLI\ LW 7KH .11 DOJRULWKP FDQ EH XVHG
5DQGRP )RUHVW &ODVVLILHU 5)&>@LVPDGHXSRIDODUJH IRU ERWK UHJUHVVLRQ DQG FODVVLILFDWLRQ EXW LW LV PRVW
QXPEHU RI 'HFLVLRQ 7UHHV (DFK QRGH RI WKH GHFLVLRQ WUHH FRPPRQO\ XVHG IRU FODVVLILFDWLRQ SUREOHPV 7R FDOFXODWH WKH
DVNVDTXHVWLRQDERXWWKHGDWDZLWKWKHEUDQFKHVUHSUHVHQWLQJ (XFOLGHDQGLVWDQFHWKHHTXDWLRQLVJLYHQLQ  
DOWHUQDWLYHUHSOLHV$KXQGUHGGHFLVLRQWUHHVDUHFRPELQHGLQ 
D UDQGRP IRUHVW DSSURDFK 7KH SRSXODULW\ RI 5)& PRGHOV  ݀ா௨௖௟௜ௗ௘௡ ൌ ඥσ௡௜ୀ଴ሺ‫ݔ‬௜ െ ‫ݕ‬௜ ሻଶ   
VWHPV IURP WKHLU JUHDW DFFXUDF\ DQG LQH[SHQVLYH 
FRPSXWDWLRQDOFRVWV :HFDQGHVFULEH.11DOJRULWKPE\IROORZLQJVWHSV
5DQGRP IRUHVW LV D VXSHUYLVHG OHDUQLQJ PHWKRG WKDW PD\ EH  &KRRVH.QXPEHURIQHLJKERUV
XVHG LQ FODVVLILFDWLRQ DQG UHJUHVVLRQ PRGHOV +RZHYHU LW LV  0HDVXUH (XFOLGHDQ GLVWDQFH IRU . QXPEHU RI
PRVWO\HPSOR\HGWRVROYHFODVVLILFDWLRQLVVXHV QHLJKERUV
  6HOHFW WKH . QHDUHVW QHLJKERUV IURP WKH
7KHIROORZLQJVWHSIRUUDQGRPIRUHVWDOJRULWKP FDOFXODWLRQRI(XFOLGHDQGLVWDQFH
 6HOHFWDUDQGRPVDPSOHIURPWKHGDWDVHW  &RXQW WKH QXPEHU RI GDWD SRLQWV LQ HDFK
 &UHDWHDGHFLVLRQWUHHIRUHDFKVDPSOH7KHQWDNHWKH FDWHJRU\DPRQJWKHVHNQHLJKERUV
SUHGLFWHGUHVXOWIURPHDFKWUHH  $VVLJQQHZGDWDSRLQWVWRWKHFDWHJRU\ZLWKWKH
 9RWLQJIRUHDFKSUHGLFWHGUHVXOW JUHDWHVWQXPEHURIQHLJKERUV
 )LQDO UHVXOW ZLOO EH SUHGLFWHG IURP WKH PRVW YRWHG 
SUHGLFWLRQ 0/3 &ODVVLILHU $ IHHG IRUZDUG DUWLILFLDO QHXUDO QHWZRUN
 FDOOHG D PXOWLOD\HU SHUFHSWURQ 0/3  LV D W\SH RI IHHG
%HUQRXOOL1%$QRWKHUKHOSIXOQDYH%D\HVPRGHOLV%HUQRXOOL IRUZDUG DUWLILFLDO QHXUDO QHWZRUN $11  0/3 FODVVLILHU
1DYH %D\HV 7KLV PHWKRG LV XVHG IRU GLVFUHWH GDWD DQG LV ZKLFK DV WKH QDPH VXJJHVWV LV OLQNHG WR D 1HXUDO
EDVHG RQ WKH %HUQRXOOL GLVWULEXWLRQ 7KH SULPDU\ 1HWZRUN%DFNSURSDJDWLRQLVDVXSHUYLVHGOHDUQLQJWHFKQLTXH
FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI %HUQRXOOL 1DLYH %D\HV LV WKDW LW RQO\ WDNHV XVHG E\ 0/3 GXULQJ WUDLQLQJ 0/3 LV GLVWLQJXLVKHG IURP D
ELQDU\ YDOXHV VXFK DV WUXH RU IDOVH \HV RU QR VXFFHVV RU OLQHDU SHUFHSWURQ E\ LWV QXPHURXV OD\HUV DQG QRQOLQHDU
IDLOXUHRUDQGVRRQ7H[WFODVVLILFDWLRQZLWKWKHµEDJRI DFWLYDWLRQ ,W FDQ WHOO WKH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ GDWD WKDW LVQ W
ZRUGV  PRGHO LV DQ DSSOLFDWLRQ RI %HUQRXOOL 1DYH %D\HV OLQHDUO\ VHSDUDEOH 7KH 3HUFHSWURQ LV PDGH XS RI WZR
FODVVLILFDWLRQ VNOHDUQQDLYHBED\HV LV D 6FLNLWOHDUQ PRGXOH FRPSOHWHO\OLQNHGOD\HUVDQLQSXWOD\HUDQGDQRXWSXWOD\HU
7KH *DXVVLDQ 1DYH %D\HV PHWKRG ZLOO EH LPSOHPHQWHG E\ 0/3V KDYH WKH VDPH LQSXW DQG RXWSXW OD\HUV EXW DV VKRZQ
%HUQRXOOL1% )LJWKH\PD\KDYHVHYHUDOKLGGHQOD\HUVLQEHWZHHQ
%HFDXVH ZH UH GHDOLQJ ZLWK ELQDU\ QXPEHUV FRQVLGHU S  DV
WKHFKDQFHRIVXFFHVVDQG T DVWKHOLNHOLKRRGRIIDLOXUHZLWK
T S

,QWKH%HUQRXOOLGLVWULEXWLRQZLWKDUDQGRPYDULDEOH ; 
‫ ݍ‬ൌ ͳ െ ‫ ݔ݌‬ൌ Ͳ
3 [  3>; [@ ൜   
‫ ݔ݌‬ൌ ͳ
+HUH [ FDQRQO\KDYHWZRYDOXHVRU
5XOHIRU%HUQRXOOL1DLYH%D\HV&ODVVLILHULV
3 [L‫  \פ‬3 L‫[ \פ‬L í3 L‫   \פ‬í[L  

)LJ'LDJUDPRI0XOWLOD\HU

467

Authorized licensed use limited to: Shiv Ram Das Gulati Memorial Society. Downloaded on November 23,2023 at 09:22:01 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
 tĞĐĂŶĚĞƐĐƌŝďĞD>WĂůŐŽƌŝƚŚŵďLJĨŽůůŽǁŝŶŐƐƚĞƉƐ͗ 7$%/(,,6+2:,1*6,;$/*25,7+06$1'7+(,50(75,&6
6&25(
 7KH UHOHYDQW OLEUDULHV DQG PRGXOHV DUH EHLQJ 
ORDGHG $OJRULWKP $FFXUDF\ 5HFDOO 3UHFLVLRQ )
 5HDGLQJ WKH GDWD DQG FDUU\LQJ RXW EDVLF GDWD $GD%RRVW&ODVVLILHU    
FKHFNV 5DQGRP)RUHVW    
 $UUD\VIRUWKHIHDWXUHVDQGWKHUHVSRQVHYDULDEOH .11&ODVVLILHU    
DUHFUHDWHG
%HUQRXOOL1%    
 7KHWUDLQLQJDQGWHVWGDWDVHWVDUHEHLQJFUHDWHG
 7KHQHXUDOQHWZRUN PRGHO ZDVEXLOWSUHGLFWHG 0/3&ODVVLILHU    
DQGHYDOXDWHG ,PSDFWOHUDQLQJ    
 
,PSDFW /HDUQLQJ ,PSDFW OHDUQLQJ >@ LV D VXSHUYLVHG
PDFKLQH OHDUQLQJ DSSURDFK WKDW XVHV H[DPSOHV WR VROYH
FODVVLILFDWLRQDQGOLQHDURUSRO\QRPLDOUHJUHVVLRQSUREOHPV,W
DOVR KHOSV ZLWK FRPSHWLWLYH GDWD DQDO\VLV LQ V\VWHPV 7KLV
DOJRULWKP LV VSHFLDO LQ WKDW LW FDQ OHDUQ IURP D FRPSHWLWLRQ
ZKLFKLVWKHLQIOXHQFHRIVHSDUDWHFKDUDFWHULVWLFV

7KHHTXDWLRQRI,PSDFWOHDUQLQJLVJLYHQEHORZ

௞ σ೙
೔సభ ௪೔ ௫೔
మ
 ,PS ሺ‫ ݕ‬ᇱ െ ሺ ൅ ܾሻሻಿ   
௥ି௪೤ ௞

,95(68/7$1'',6&866,21 
)LJ0RGHO3HUIRUPDQFH0HWULFV
$VVKRZQLQILJWKHDFFXUDF\UHFDOOVSHFLILFLW\SUHFLVLRQ 
DQG ) 6FRUHV RI WKH VL[ PHWKRGV $GD%RRVW &ODVVLILHU 7KH$GD%RRVW&ODVVLILHUDVVKRZQLQ7DEOH,,DQG)LJ
5DQGRP )RUHVW &ODVVLILHU %HUQRXOOL1% 0/3 &ODVVLILHU KDV WKH PD[LPXP DFFXUDF\ RI  SHUFHQW DQG RQ WKH RWKHU
LPSDFW OHDUQLQJ DQG .11 ZHUH FRPSDUHG 7KH QXPEHU RI KDQG DQRWKHU UHVHDUFK SDSHU E\ 0XMXPGDU $LVKZDU\D DQG
DFFXUDWHDQGHUURQHRXVFODVVLILFDWLRQVLQHDFKSRWHQWLDOYDOXH 99DLGHKLJRWWKHDFFXUDF\SHUFHQWXVLQJVDPHDOJRULWKP
RI WKH YDULDEOHV EHLQJ FODVVLILHG LV XVHG WR GHWHUPLQH WKH >@)RU5DQGRP)RUHVWDOJRULWKPLQWKLVSDSHUWKHDFFXUDF\
HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI WKH FODVVLILFDWLRQ PRGHO )URP WKH UHVXOWV LVSHUFHQWDQGSHUFHQWLQ0XMXPGHUHWDOSDSHU%XWIRU
REWDLQHG 7KH $FFXUDF\ 6HQVLWLYLW\ DQG 6SHFLILFLW\ .11DOJRULWKPWKHDFFXUDF\ LVORZHVW,WVSHUFHQWLVWKLV
3UHFLVLRQ DQG ) VFRUH DUH FDOFXODWHG XVLQJ WKH IROORZLQJ SDSHUDQGSHUFHQWLQ0XMXPGHUHWDOSDSHU7KH$GD%RRVW
HTXDWLRQV   &ODVVLILHU PRGHO ZDV FUHDWHG WR EH PRUH VHQVLWLYH LQ
்௉ା்ே SUHGLFWLQJWUXHSRVLWLYHVDVPHDVXUHGE\UHFDOODQG)RI
 $FFXUDF\ ்௉ା்ேାி௉ାிே     DQG  SHUFHQW UHVSHFWLYHO\ DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH PHGLFDO DLP
7KHSUHFLVLRQ LV SHUFHQW7KH DFFXUDF\ LV RQO\ WKH ORZHVW
7KHSURSRUWLRQRIWRWDOUHOHYDQWUHVXOWVDFFXUDWHO\FDWHJRUL]HG IRU.11)RUHYHU\DOJRULWKPZHJRWDJRRGDFFXUDF\
E\WKHDOJRULWKPLVUHIHUUHGWRUHFDOORUVHQVLWLYLW\

்௉
:RUNLQJ )UDPHZRUN )LJ GHSLFWV WKH VXJJHVWHG SURFHVV
5HFDOO ்௉ା்ே      IRU LPSOHPHQWLQJ PDFKLQH OHDUQLQJ PRGHOV LQ WKH SUHGLFWLRQ
 QRGH 7R DGMXVW IRU PLVVLQJ GDWD LPSXWDWLRQ LV FRQGXFWHG
7KHSUHFLVLRQRIHYHU\UHFRUGZHSURMHFWHGZDVSRVLWLYH ILUVW IROORZHG E\ IHDWXUH VFDOLQJ WR QRUPDOL]H WKH GDWDVHW V
 YDOXH UDQJH >@ 'XULQJ WUDLQLQJ IHDWXUH VHOHFWLRQ
்௉
3UHFLVLRQ ்௉ାி௉     DSSURDFKHV DUH XVHG WR HOLPLQDWH GXSOLFDWH IHDWXUHV WKDW GR
7KHKDUPRQLFPHDQRISUHFLVLRQDQGUHFDOOLVWKH)VFRUH QRW FRQWULEXWH VLJQLILFDQWO\ WR WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RXWFRPH DQG
 LPSURYH RYHUDOO PRGHO ILGHOLW\ )LQDOO\ GXULQJ WKH NIROG
ଶ்௉ା்ே FURVV YDOLGDWLRQ VWDJH WKH ELQDU\ FODVVLILHUV DUH ILWWHG WR WKH
)6FRUH ଶ்௉ାி௉ାிே  

GDWD ZLWK DOO VDPSOHV EHLQJ XWLOL]HG IRU WUDLQLQJ YDOLGDWLRQ
 DQGWHVWLQJUHVXOWLQJLQDPRUHUREXVWFODVVLILHU

468

Authorized licensed use limited to: Shiv Ram Das Gulati Memorial Society. Downloaded on November 23,2023 at 09:22:01 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
 

9)8785(:25.

7KHUH DUH D QXPEHU RI VWXG\ DYHQXHV WKDW PLJKW EH

SXUVXHG LQ WKH IXWXUH )LUVWO\ LW LV VWLOO XQFOHDU ZK\ W\SH
GLDEHWHV RFFXUV 6HFRQG PRUH YDULDEOHV WKDW ZHUH QRW
LQFOXGHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ PLJKW EH XVHG WR SUHGLFW GLDEHWLF
FRPSOLFDWLRQV 7KLUG DGGLWLRQDO UHVHDUFK VKRXOG EH GRQH WR
GHWHUPLQH WKH ULVN IDFWRUV OLQNHG WR GLDEHWHV FRPSOLFDWLRQV
)LQDOO\ZH GZDQWWRDSSO\WKLVFRQFHSWWRDGGLWLRQDOFKURQLF
FRQGLWLRQV

9,&21&/87,21

2QH RI WKH PRVW SUHVVLQJ ZRUOGZLGH KHDOWK FRQFHUQV LV

GHWHFWLQJGLDEHWHVULVNDWDQHDUO\VWDJH7KLVUHVHDUFKDLPVWR
GHYHORS D IUDPHZRUN IRU SUHGLFWLQJ ZKR LV DIIHFWHG DQG WKH
 FDXVH RI GLDEHWHV W\SH  LV UHSUHVHQWHG DV D SHUFHQWDJH 6L[
PDFKLQH OHDUQLQJ FODVVLILFDWLRQ DOJRULWKPV ZHUH XVHG LQ WKLV
)LJ)UDPHZRUNRIWKHPDFKLQHOHDUQLQJSLSHOLQH
ZRUN DQG WKH UHVXOWV ZHUH FRPSDUHG WR VHYHUDO VWDWLVWLFDO
PHWULFV 7HVWV ZHUH UXQ RQ GDWD DFTXLUHG XVLQJ RQOLQH DQG
RIIOLQH TXHVWLRQQDLUHV WKDW LQFOXGHG PDQ\ GLDEHWHVUHODWHG
WRSLFV 7KH $GD%RRVW &ODVVLILHU V DFFXUDF\ LQ RXU GDWDVHW LV
SHUFHQWZKLFKLVWKHJUHDWHVWDPRQJWKHRWKHUVDFFRUGLQJ
WRWKHWHVWLQJUHVXOWV$OOWKHPRGHOVDFKLHYHGJRRGUHVXOWVIRU
YDULRXV SDUDPHWHUV VXFK DV DFFXUDF\ SUHFLVLRQ HWF DPRQJ
WKH VL[ GLVWLQFW PDFKLQH OHDUQLQJ PHWKRGV XVHG 7KLV UHVXOW
FDQEHXVHGWR IRUHFDVWDQ\RWKHULOOQHVVLQWKH IXWXUH2WKHU
PDFKLQH OHDUQLQJ DOJRULWKPV WRSUHGLFW GLDEHWHV RU DQ\ RWKHU
LOOQHVV DUH FXUUHQWO\ EHLQJ UHVHDUFKHG DQG LPSURYHG XSRQ LQ
WKLVZRUN

$&.12:/('*0(17

7KH DXWKRUV ZRXOG OLNH WR WKDQN WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI +LJKHU
(GXFDWLRQIRUSURYLGLQJILQDQFLDOVXSSRUWXQGHU)XQGDPHQWDO
5HVHDUFK *UDQW 6FKHPH )5*6  1R
)5*6,&7803 8QLYHUVLW\ UHIHUHQFH
5'8 

5()(5(1&(

>@ /H\HU 0LFKDHO DQG 'LMDQD ,ORVND   $QDO\VLQJ

FRJQLWLYH UHDVRQLQJ RI LQGLYLGXDOV W\SH  'LDEHWHV
)LJ7KHFDXVHRIGLDEHWHVLVUHSUHVHQWHGDVDSHUFHQWDJH  0HOOLWXV WR UHVROYH K\SRJO\FDHPLD 2EHVLW\ 0HGLFLQH
  
)LJ  VKRZV WKDW WKH PDMRULW\ RI SDWLHQWV ZLWK GLDEHWHV >@ äLOLQVNLHQơ -RODQWD /LQDV âXPVNDV 'DOLD $QWLQLHQơ
DUHLPSDFWHGE\KHUHGLWDU\ IDFWRUV7KHSHUFHQWDJHLVDURXQG DQG -ROLWD -RQ\QLHQơ,QWHUDFWLRQ RI SDUHQWLQJ VW\OH RI
 SHUFHQW :HLJKW LV DQRWKHU PDMRU IDFWRU IRU GLDEHWHV7KH PRWKHUV DQG SDHGLDWULF GLDEHWHV PDQDJHPHQW %DOWLF
SHUFHQWDJHLVPRUHWKDQSHUFHQW7KHSHUFHQWDJHLVDOPRVW -RXUQDORI6SRUWDQG+HDOWK6FLHQFHV  
VLPLODU IRU KDELW DQG H[HUFLVH ,W¶V DURXQG  SHUFHQW RU 
VOLJKWO\KLJKHUWKDQSHUFHQW >@ -DLQ %KDYLQL 1DQGHVKZDUL 5DQDZDW 3DQNDM &KLWWRUD
 3UDVXQ &KDNUDEDUWL DQG 6DQGHHS 3RGGDU $ PDFKLQH
 OHDUQLQJ SHUVSHFWLYH 7R DQDO\]H GLDEHWHV 0DWHULDOV
7RGD\3URFHHGLQJV  

469

Authorized licensed use limited to: Shiv Ram Das Gulati Memorial Society. Downloaded on November 23,2023 at 09:22:01 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
 >@ $EDNHU $OL $ DQG )DNKUHOGHHQ $ 6DHHG $ >@ 7LJJD1HKD3UHUQDDQG6KUXWL*DUJ3UHGLFWLRQRIW\SH
&RPSDUDWLYH$QDO\VLVRI0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJ$OJRULWKPV  GLDEHWHV XVLQJ PDFKLQH OHDUQLQJ FODVVLILFDWLRQ
WR %XLOG D 3UHGLFWLYH 0RGHO IRU 'HWHFWLQJ 'LDEHWHV PHWKRGV3URFHGLD&RPSXWHU6FLHQFH  
&RPSOLFDWLRQV,QIRUPDWLFD   
>@ 6DKRR3UL\DEUDWD3ULPLWLYH'LDEHWHV3UHGLFWLRQ XVLQJ >@ %DVX6DQMD\.DUO7-RKQVRQDQG6HWK $%HUNRZLW]
0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJ0RGHOV$Q(PSLULFDO,QYHVWLJDWLRQ 8VH RI 0DFKLQH /HDUQLQJ $SSURDFKHV LQ &OLQLFDO
7XUNLVK -RXUQDO RI &RPSXWHU DQG 0DWKHPDWLFV (SLGHPLRORJLFDO 5HVHDUFK RI 'LDEHWHV&XUUHQW
(GXFDWLRQ 785&20$7    'LDEHWHV5HSRUWV  
>@ 6D[HQD $QNXU DQG 6KLYDQL &KDQGUD $XWRPDWHG >@ 5RRELQL06<6DL6DWZLFN$5HGG\0/DNVKPL
'LDJQRVLV RI 'LDEHWHV 0HOOLWXV %DVHG RQ 0DFKLQH ' 'HHSD DQG $QLWKD 3RQUDM3UHGLFWLYH $QDO\VLV RI
/HDUQLQJ$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFHDQG0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJ 'LDEHWHV 0HOOLWXV 8VLQJ 0DFKLQH /HDUQLQJ
LQ+HDOWKFDUH6SULQJHU6LQJDSRUH 7HFKQLTXHV-RXUQDORI&RPSXWDWLRQDODQG7KHRUHWLFDO
>@ /L -XQ 3HL <XDQ ;LDRMXDQ +X -LQJELQ +XDQJ 1DQRVFLHQFH  
/RQJWDR &XL -L &XL ;X[LDQJ 0D HW DO$ WRQJXH >@ .RZVKHU 0G $QLN 7DKDELOGHU DQG 6D\GXO $NEDU
IHDWXUHV IXVLRQ DSSURDFK WR SUHGLFWLQJ SUHGLDEHWHV DQG 0XUDG ,PSDFWOHDUQLQJ D UREXVW PDFKLQH OHDUQLQJ
GLDEHWHVZLWKPDFKLQHOHDUQLQJ-RXUQDORI%LRPHGLFDO DOJRULWKP3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH WK ,QWHUQDWLRQDO
,QIRUPDWLFV   &RQIHUHQFH RQ &RPSXWHU DQG &RPPXQLFDWLRQV
>@ $ERNK]DP $VPD $KPHG 1 . *XSWD DQG 'LSDN 0DQDJHPHQW
.XPDU%RVH(IILFLHQWGLDEHWHVPHOOLWXVSUHGLFWLRQZLWK >@ +X*HQVKHQJ&XQMXQ<LQ0LQJ]KX:DQ<DQ=KDQJ
JULG EDVHG UDQGRP IRUHVW FODVVLILHU LQ DVVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK DQG <L )DQJ5HFRJQLWLRQ RI GLVHDVHG 3LQXV WUHHV LQ
QDWXUDO ODQJXDJH SURFHVVLQJ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI 8$9 LPDJHV XVLQJ GHHS OHDUQLQJ DQG $GD%RRVW
6SHHFK7HFKQRORJ\   FODVVLILHU%LRV\VWHPV (QJLQHHULQJ   
>@ *XSWD 'HHSDN $PELND &KRXGKXU\ 8PHVK *XSWD 
3UL\DQND 6LQJK DQG 0XNHVK 3UDVDG&RPSXWDWLRQDO >@ /DUDEL0DULH6DLQWH 6RXDG /LQDK $EXUDKPDK 5DQD
DSSURDFK WR FOLQLFDO GLDJQRVLV RI GLDEHWHV GLVHDVH D $OPRKDLQL DQG 7DQ]LOD 6DED&XUUHQW WHFKQLTXHV IRU
FRPSDUDWLYHVWXG\0XOWLPHGLD7RROVDQG$SSOLFDWLRQV GLDEHWHV SUHGLFWLRQ UHYLHZ DQG FDVH VWXG\$SSOLHG
  6FLHQFHV  
>@ :DGKZD 6KUXWL DQG .DUXQD %DEEHU $UWLILFLDO >@ 5DPHVK -D\URRS 5DDIDW $EXUXNED DQG $VVLP
,QWHOOLJHQFH LQ +HDOWK &DUH 3UHGLFWLYH $QDO\VLV RQ 6DJDK\URRQ $ UHPRWH KHDOWKFDUH PRQLWRULQJ
'LDEHWHV 8VLQJ 0DFKLQH /HDUQLQJ $OJRULWKPV IUDPHZRUN IRU GLDEHWHV SUHGLFWLRQ XVLQJ PDFKLQH
,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQ&RPSXWDWLRQDO6FLHQFHDQG OHDUQLQJ+HDOWKFDUH 7HFKQRORJ\ /HWWHUV  
,WV$SSOLFDWLRQV6SULQJHU&KDP 
>@ .RZVKHU 0G )DUKDQD 6KDUPLQ 7LWKL 7DSDV\ 5DEH\D >@ 0XMXPGDU $LVKZDU\D DQG 9 9DLGHKL 'LDEHWHV
)DKPLGD $IULQ DQG 0RKDPPDG 1XUXO +XGD7\SH  SUHGLFWLRQXVLQJPDFKLQHOHDUQLQJDOJRULWKPV3URFHGLD
GLDEHWLFV WUHDWPHQW DQG PHGLFDWLRQ GHWHFWLRQ ZLWK &RPSXWHU6FLHQFH  
PDFKLQH OHDUQLQJ FODVVLILHU DOJRULWKP 3URFHHGLQJV RI
,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RLQW &RQIHUHQFH RQ &RPSXWDWLRQDO

,QWHOOLJHQFH6SULQJHU6LQJDSRUH
>@ &KDWWHUMHH 6XGHVQD .DPOHVK .KXQWL DQG 0HODQLH -

'DYLHV 7\SH  GLDEHWHV 7KH /DQFHW 
 


470

Authorized licensed use limited to: Shiv Ram Das Gulati Memorial Society. Downloaded on November 23,2023 at 09:22:01 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.