2017 IEEE 3rd International Conference on Electro-Technology for National Development (NIGERCON)

Modelling Steady State Stability Reserve for Specific

Nigerian Power Transmission Grid Expansion Plan
Melodi, A. O and Oladeji, I. R
Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering
Federal Unversity of Technology, Akure
[email protected]; [email protected], [email protected]

Abstract-This paper presents value based steady state stability stability, frequency stability, and inter area oscillations have
(SSS) conditions and planning of an installed Sub-Saharan become greater concerns than in the past.
transmission system with situation of frequent system collapse This study also considered that system expansion, which
during normal operations. Nigeria’s grid was considered as a is dynamic and continuing, presents a need for review of
test case. Both installed and proposed system expansion load
flow simulator that employs Newton-Raphson method was
system security conditions of developing African systems for
created using power system analysis software. An algorithm and short and long term. It is known that power system stability,
criterion that considered all possibleslack bus and load centre depending on causes, is classified and discussed as three
scenarios were proposed for simulation of load flow and SSS types: steady state stability, dynamic stability, and transient
analysis and to identify the SSS limits and load centers that are stability [3].In some references, steady state stability is
critical to SSS of the test grid. The results show that in a referred to as dynamic stability [4] caused by small
condition of slack generation capacity, specific case of test disturbances, and transient stability is referred to as dynamic
expansion plan for Nigeria exhibits limitation of 17.41-17.8% in stability caused by sudden large disturbances as short circuits
SSS reserve, with involvement of high SVC capacity. Generally, [5].
the algorithm is applicable for evaluating installed security of
Sub-Saharan grids and expansion plan prospects by SSS
Steady state stability is the only type that is sustainable by
requirements. just limiting the operating system load below a standard
percentage of stability (load) limit in order to maintain a
Keywords: Transmission grid expansion, system collapse, system standard reserve. For a specific system that has been in
security, steady state stability,stability reserve,. operation for a long time, this reserve becomes obscure due to
changes that were not in original projection, and or systems
that are long overdue for review and expansion planning. This
I. INTRODUCTION creates problems for system engineers in daily load allocation
It is known that power systems are the largest and most planning.
complex manmade dynamic systems and are continuously Steady state stability is defined as the ability of an
subjected to perturbations, which can cause oscillations and alternating current power system, operating under given load
transitions from one operating state to another [1]. This study conditions, to restore to this initial operating condition or
considered that an ultimate consequence of system instability condition close to it after small perturbation of the system.
is blackout (voltage failure), which is prevalent in developing The perturbations are in the form of small and gradual
African systems and impacts GDP, customer’s electricity use increase in load [4], [5], [6]
costs and satisfaction. This position has motivated studies into The steady state stability reserve (SSSR) index (α) of a
operations mode, load forecasting and system expansion power system quantifies how far from steady state stability
modelling for a model sub-Saharan system such as [2]. limit (SSSL) and how safe is a given operating state [7] in
According to [1], power system stability (synchronism of case of ‘dynamic stability’ disturbances, which are common
all system’s synchronous machines) has been an important during system operation.
preoccupation for engineers since the 1920s. However, The SSSL of a particular circuit of a power system may be
blackouts caused by instability still occur despite the defined as the peak power at the receiving end of the circuit
significant advancements in the control and protection that can be transmitted without loss of synchronism if the load
technology that have been made. Some of the measures is increased in steps and if the field current changes after each
identified for controlling instability include fault clearing, increment of load so as to restore the normal operating
excitation control, load shedding, generator tripping, fast conditions, assuming the terminal voltages of generator
valving and emergency control actions; and growing use of remain constant.
interconnections between power systems to improve stability, The knowledge of the SSSR of a network is important in
but the stability problem has gained new dimensions. Voltage order to operate it in safe steady state mode by stability
requirement to prevent voltage collapse or blackout. This is

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 2017 IEEE 3rd International Conference on Electro-Technology for National Development (NIGERCON)

particularly needful for Nigeria’s and Sub-Saharan present and future or planned period under probabilistic
transmission system engineers in grids where system stability forecast load (PFL).
is still unsustainable.
B. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND
A. BACKGROUND OF STUDY In single machine infinite bus (SMIB) system equivalent
Previous studies on Nigerian electric power system model depicted in Fig. 2, active power transfer from an
showed a critical need for grid reinforcement or expansion equivalent system generator via a transmission line to i-th
planning for present and future load flow. This is based on load point is modelled as:
models of probable load forecasts and thermal capacity
requirements under normal operating mode parameters [2]. = ; = ; = + +  
Some data obtained for the Nigerian grid [8], depicted in Fig.
1, show an average 32 system collapses per year between
2004 and 2014. Apparently, grid operators have been Where is generator terminal voltage, is delivery or load
operating the power system (PS) close to stability limits due point voltage, is angular difference between generator and
to unavailable system specific models of stability limit and delivery point voltage phasors, is generator reactance,
reserve conditions, which needed for guidance in load load reactance at i-thdelivery point (DP), and is
allocations for the Nigerian PS. transmission line reactance[3], [4], [5].

60
Partial Collapse Total Collapse Ui
50 EQUIVALENT SYSTEM

40 G
Freque

Ii
30
ncy

20
10
0
FIGURE 2: SINGLE LINE DIAGRAM SMIB SYSTEM
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Increase in applied load causes increase reaction torque
FIGURE 1: SYSTEM C OLLAPSE IN N IGERIA and hence load angle. As the angle is increased, the power
Instability in frequency and voltage had often resulted in generated by the alternator for transfer increases up to a
system collapse (permissible frequency and voltage are maximum. After a certain angle, normally 90˚, a further
±2.5% and ±5% nominal values respectively).In order to increase in angle results in a decrease in power. At zero angle,
achieve sustained system security, it is imperative to no power is transferred.
determine a “safe” MW loading for all transmission systems Steady state load flow studies is the first step to operating
that will ensure voltage, frequency stability and supply mode planning, system’s hypothetical situations modelling
service or quality to users. and development. SSSL is the maximum power transfer
Empirical costs of unreliable power supply due to load ( ) of a particular system without loss of equilibrium [3].
shedding, faults and system collapses can be very high and Simulations to determine the SSSL for a network is obtained
affect user patronage. In Nigeria, manufacturers have resorted through continuous load flow simulation (CLFS).
to local in-house generation of electricity, which forms40% of Assuming all buses other than the reference bus is a P-Q
production costs compared to 5-10% in other similar bus, the load flow could be obtained by computing iterations
economies(that depend on central grids)[9].Therefore creating every step taking the swing bus to be the reference bus and
a secure system condition and guide in operation is critical for using equation (2) for voltage solution at each bus.
more patronage, reduction in costs of manufacturing, = ∗ −∑    
economic growth.
There is therefore need to test specific systems and
expansion plans on present and future load capacity for steady where = 1,2,3, − − − , is the voltage, is the
state stability, in this case – the Nigerian electric power admittance, and are the real and reactive powers and
system. This study supposes that adequate SSSL or the number of iterations
generation reserve control and especially transmission grid
C. TEST POWER SYSTEMS
mitigates a need for load shedding as means of achieving
system security under normal operations. The network for study and simulation is the 40 bus,
In [2], normal power flow feasibility of an expansion 330kV Nigeria power system. The data for generator
scenario that comprise uniform scaling of grid line capacities characteristics, line properties and operating condition are
by a factor of 2 p.u was proposed. This expansion plan is obtained from the National Control Centre (NCC). The
adopted in this study and tested to obtain expected SSSR for network is zoned four geographical regions- north, south, east

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and west. The grid consists of a mix of hydro and thermal circuit comprises two bundled ACSR 350 mm2, 54/7
power stations. Total length of the grid’s 52 lines is conductors per phase with horizontal configuration.
9,454.8km of either dual or single circuit lines. A330 kV The network simulator diagram is presented in Fig. 3.

PLANNED
REINFORCEMENT

2017

2019

2024

FIGURE 3: SINGLE LINE DIAGRAM OF TEST GRID

Table 1 shows the generating stations and respective transmission grid limit is reached. This limit corresponds to
capacities in the system. the maximum power transferrable in the grid before loadflow
loses convergence, and indicates the stability limit of the
TABLE 1 GENERATION S TATIONS IN N IGERIA (2014-16)
system in case of any steady state load disturbance occurring
POWER STATION at the specified load centre. This SB-LC approach, in some
S/N NAME BUS NO. . (MW) . (MW)
1 Kainji 36 760 259
contrast to the application of conventional SMIB or two
2 Jebba 2 504 352 machine analogy, considers equal probability of SSS
3 Shiroro 4 600 402 disturbance at any DP.
4 Egbin 30 1320 900
5 Port Harcourt 26 100 57.3
SSSR index is obtained from the derived data of load
6 Sapele 27 1020 170 flows as:
7 Okpai 24 900 221 . ( ) .( )
8 Afam 25 726 60 = ; = 1. . ∞, 1; 
.( , )
9 Delta 29 912 281
10 Omotosho 21 304 88.3
11 Olorunshogo 19 300 160
. ( ) = ( , )  
TOTAL POWER 7,446 (*8001) 2949.9 (*3240)
*Including others: 30b) AES (250, 211.8 MW); 23) Ibom (155, 25.3); 15) Omoku (150, 53).

Where k is the index of the continuous loadflow

simulation for the nth scenario of SB-LC and m is the number
II. RESEARCH METHOD of SB-LC scenarios, . ( ) is sum of all active power
In order to derive data for evaluating steady state stability generations for nth scenario when k corresponds to limit load
of the grid, the following algorithm was adopted. Network flow, ( , ) is sum of active power generations for nth
data of test transmission grid were obtained from the scenario and kth load flow simulation, .( ) is sum of active
transmission company. The data were applied to create a load
power generations during base load flow simulation.
flow simulator (LFS) of the test transmission grid using
The condition for SSSR solution of the test grid is defined
NEPLAN proprietary software that applies Newton-Raphson
as:
method for loadflow computation. The simulator is applied to
establish the base loadflow or normal mode parameters for ∝ = ∝    
reference.
Afterwards, the LFS is applied to simulate load flows 64 perspectives of SB-LC structure were tested, which
of numbers of Swing Bus and Load Centre (SB-LC) models respective small loading disturbances at load centres
scenarios for continuous loading of the LC until a

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or delivery points and available transmission capacity (ATC) FIGURE 4: FLOWCHART OF APPLIED SSSL EVALUATION PROCEDURE
by stability requirement.
This methodology would provide the initial steady state
load flow, the SSSL loadflow, and maximum transferrable III. RESULTS AND ANALYSIS
power by stability requirement, from which SSSR index is The obtained results of SSSRI computation are presented
derived. The flowchart for the realisation of SSSL and SSSR in Figs 6to 7. Fig. 7 presents SSSR of various slack
for successive SB-LC scenarios and the TC in a given year generation to load centres scenarios for 2014-2016 network
step of the planning period is shown in Fig. 6. For structure; Fig.9 presents generated power at the slack bus for
comparative analysis, the algorithm was implemented for the each slack bus and load centre scenario. Figs 6 to 7 show that
base year and the horizon of the planning period. all SB-LC scenarios have varying SSSLs; the grid should
Start
have adequate SSSR for each scenario. Therefore, in
transmission expansion planning, there should be a search for
specific system reinforcing measures to provide adequate
Grid parameters, bus PFLs, N reserve. SB-LC scenarios (30-8) and (30-38) exhibit the least
stability limits regardless of distances from respective slack
buses; α is approximately zero, implying – no stability reserve
n=1
at all. For these scenarios, the maximum transferrable powers
in the system are both 5295.1 MW. The demand on the SB
was zero MW.
Select nth load centre and slack bus Figure 7 shows that the planned transmission grid will
provide sufficient SSSR for all SB-LC scenarios (i.e., ≈ 20%),
k=1
if there is adequate generation capacity. This imply that the
planned grid is adequate in capacity by SSS requirement if the
supporting generation capacity is adequate. Figure 8 shows
Load flow (n,k) that for all respective scenarios of SBs, the required
k=k+1 respective generating capacities to provide standard stability
n=n+1
no reserve are higher than the installed capacities. For instance,
SSSL? in 2024 grid scenario, the power station (PS) with the highest
installed capacity is the thermal PS at the bus 30 (Egbin) in
yes the western grid, with installed capacity of about 1320 MW;
the required generation to sustain the worst case SSSR
Record loadflow.
Evaluate scenarios is approximately 5000 MW, giving a shortfall of
about 3680 MW. The worst case scenario DPs are 8 and 38 of
the north grid
yes no

n<N

= min

Stop

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 1400 340
320
1200 300
280
DISTANCE FROM SB. km

260
1000 240
220

ALPHA,%
800 200
180
160
600 140
120
400 100
80
60
200 40
20
0 0
8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20

30 25 4 27 24 29 35 26

SB-LC

L, km α, % α_min,% α_SVC, %

FIGURE 5: SSSR INDICES OF VARIOUS SLACK GENERATION TO LOAD CENTRES SCENARIOS FOR 2014-2016 NETWORK STRUCTURE

1400 25000

1200
20000
DISTANCE FROM SB. km

1000

P_GEN, MW
800 15000

600 10000
400
5000
200

0 0
8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20
30 25 4 27 24 29 35 26

SB-LC

L, km P_SB, MW P_SBcSVC, MW P_sys.fin.

FIGURE 6: P_GEN AT THE SLACK BUS FOR EACH SLACK BUS – LOAD CENTRE SCENARIO FOR 2014-2016 NETWORK STRUCTURE

1400 360
340
320
1200
300
280
1000 260
DISTANCE FROM SB. km

240
220
800
ALPHA,%

200
180
600 160
140
120
400 100
80
60
200
40
20
0 0
8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20
30 25 4 27 24 29 35 26
SB-LC

L, km α, % α_min,%

FIGURE 7: SSSR INDICES OF VARIOUS SLACK GENERATION TO LOAD CENTRES SCENARIOS FOR PLANNED 2024 NETWORK STRUCTURE

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1400 45000

40000
1200
35000
1000
DISTANCE FROM SB. km

30000

P_GEN, MW
800 25000

600 20000

15000
400
10000
200
5000

0 0
8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20 8 38 22 11 16 17 28 20

30 25 4 27 24 29 35 26
SB-LC

L, km P_SB, MW P_sys.fin.

FIGURE 8: P_GEN AT THE SLACK BUS FOR EACH SLACK BUS – LOAD CENTRE SCENARIO FOR PLANNED 2024 NETWORK STRUCTURE

In order to provide standard SSSR for the present and

future TG systems, location of SVCs and generated or 1000 0 0 151 602
0 -86 -110 -152 22 -17 -18
absorbed Mvar during normal load flow are obtained by 0
mentioned CLFS, and presented in Figs10 and 11. DP voltage -1000
Q_SVC, MVAR

0 0 0 -152
-2000 -935 -597
deviation was considered as condition for possible location of -3000
-1,300 -1,447
SVC. Fig. 11 shows that the grid in its present structure -4000 -2,653
requires installation of SVCs: 4 in the north grid, and 4 in the -5000 -4,117
-6000
west grid, and 1 in the east grid. Required ( ) capacity -7000
-5,338

ranges in the north are: (-5338, +151) Mvar at DP 5, (-1300, 1 5 7 8 9 11 31 32 33 34

+602) Mvar at DP 7, (-935, -86) Mvar at DP 9, and (-4117,- N N N N N N W W W W
110) Mvar at DP 11. ( ) ranges for the West are: (-152) DP & REGION
Mvar at DP 31, (-2653, +22) Mvar at DP 32, (-1447, -17)
Mvar at DP 33 and (-597, -18) Mvar at DP 34. 2014-16 2014-16
By 2024, Fig. 11 shows that reinforced grid would
comprise 6 SVCs in the north grid, 4 in the west grid, and 1 in
FIGURE 9: RANGE OF REQUIRED MVAR FROM SVCS AT 2014-16 LEVELS
the east grid; and required ( ) capacity ranges in the
north are: (-51,0) Mvar at DP 1, (-5338, +185) Mvar at DP 5; 1000 0 185 602 24 0 0 0 22 0 -18 -119
(-1300,+602) Mvar at DP 7, (-548, +24) Mvar at DP 8; (-935, 0
Q_SVC(m), MVAR

0) Mvar at DP 9, and (-4117, 0) Mvar at DP 11. -1000 -51 -152

-2000 -548 -935
-993
( ) ranges for the West are: (-152, 0) Mvar at DP 31, (- -3000
-1,300 -1,447
2653, +22) Mvar at DP 32, (-1447, 0) Mvar at DP 33; and (- -4000 -2,653
993, -18) Mvar at DP 34. While -5000
( ) for the East would -6000
-4,117
be (-5524, -119) Mvar at DP 36. -7000 -5,338 -5,524
1 5 7 8 9 11 31 32 33 34 36

N N N N N N W W W W E
DP & REGION

2014-24 MAX 2014-24 MIN

FIGURE 10: RANGE OF REQUIRED MVAR FROM SVCS AT 2014-24 LEVELS

Also the most critical DP by SSS requirement is DP 8 in

the north grid (N) followed by DP 38 (N). SSS disturbances
emanating from these DPs on the base unreinforced grid will

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lead to system collapse. Reinforcement with more SVC 1) SSSR is feasible for the TC expansion plan provided
capacity can provide a reserve index (∝ ) of about 17% to that there is sufficient development in generation
secure the system from disturbances emanating from any of capacity exceeding approximately 9.86 GW.
these DPs. This analysis is depicted in Figs 13 and 14 below. 2) There is need to significantly invest in SVCs for
Figs 12 and 13 show power versus load angle at base year critical DPs to provide standard SSSR in installed and
and 2024 for the system with and without SVCs. It shows that planned grid for the planning horizon.
the base grid has no SSSR at full loading. With reinforcement 3) The applied algorithmic approach that considers
with SVCs, a close-to-standard reserve of 17.41% is equal probability of SSS disturbances from all DPs
obtainable if SSS disturbance occurs at most critical DP8 (N) identifies serves to identify with greater accuracy
if generating capacity is adequate. By 2024, 17.8% is DP(s) whose SSS disturbance will cause dynamic
obtainable. instability. This is applicable for evaluating
developing Sub-Saharan grids as the test grid for
7000 6217.039 short and long term grid expansion plans.
5295.104 5295.2 4) This approach also revealed DPs and region requiring
6000
very heavy investments in SVCs or FACTs devices.
5000 Such points or region may require alternative cost-
P, MW

4000 effective grid expansion approach.

3000
2000
1000
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This study has been sponsored by United States Agency
0
for International Development.
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
δ
REFERENCES
Pgen(0) Pgen(fin) Pgen(fin)_SVC
[1] E. Mircea and S. Mohammad, Handbook of Electrical Power Systems
Dynamics, New Jersey: John wiley & Sons, Inc, 2012.
FIGURE 11: POWER VERSUS LOAD ANGLE MODELS BEFORE AND AFTER
INTRODUCTION OF SVC AT CRITICAL DPS FOR 2014-2016 [2] A. O. Melodi, J. A. Momoh and O. M. Adeyanju, “Probabilistic Long
Term Load Forecast for Nigerian Bulk Power Transmission System
12000 Expansion Planning,” IEEEXplore, pp. 301-305, 2016.
9854.934
10000 8365.84 [3] D. P. Kothari and I. J. Nagrath, Power System Engineering, Third ed.,
New Delhi: McGraw Hill Education, 2008.
8000
P, MW

[4] B. M. Weedy and B. J. Cory, Electric Power Systems, West Sussex: John
6000 Wiley and Sons Limited, 2004.
4000 [5] V. G. Geracimov, A. F. Diyakov, N. F. Ilinsky, B. A. Labuntsov, V. P.
2000 Morozkin, I. N. Orlov, A. I. Popov and V. A. Stroev,
Electrotechnical Directory, Moscow: Moscow Energy Institute,
0 2002.
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
[6] E. W. Kimbark, Power System Stability - Volume1: Elements of Stability
δ Calculations, vol. 1, D. P. M. Anderson, Ed., New York: A John
Wiley & Sons, Inc., Publication, 1995, pp. 1-5.
Pgen(0)_SVC@k=17.8% Pgen(fin)_SVC@k=17.8% [7] M. E. Fayez, “The Delusive Blackout Distance of Power Systems
Reserve Margin,” in CIGRE Canada Conference on power systems,
Ontario, Canada, 2011.
FIGURE 12: POWER VERSUS LOAD ANGLE MODEL OF PLANNED FUTURE GRID [8] B. O. Akinloye, P. O. Oshevire and A. M. Epemu, “Evaluation Of
AFTER INTRODUCTION OF SVCS AT CRITICAL DPS FOR 2024. System Collapse Incidences On The Nigeria Power System,”
Journal of Multidisciplinary Engineering Science and Technology
(JMEST), pp. 3707-3711, 2016.
IV. CONCLUSION [9] IMARA, “IAS Africa Rising,” 2014. [Online]. Available:
In this study, the power system stability indexes; the SSSL http://www.imara.com/media/18601/IAS_Africa-Rising_24-
and the SSSR of specified model expansion plan for 330 kV December-2014.pdf. [Accessed 21 January 2017].
grid were obtained using the N scenarios SB-LC continuous
loading simulations. From the results, the following
conclusions can be made:

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