Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH - Buy - Initiate)
Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH - Buy - Initiate)
Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the US
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH)
Global leader in solar PV inverters
Investment points
Rating Buy (Initiate)
• Leading player in the global PV inverter market
- In 2020, Sungrow Power Supply (Sungrow) overtook Huawei to become the no. 1 player in the global PV
Target price CNY103.0 inverter market (24% M/S based on shipment volume).
Current price
• Beginning of the inverter replacement cycle
CNY72.49 - New solar PV capacity installations have expanded rapidly worldwide since 2015; we believe the inverter
(3/4/21)
replacement cycle began last year.
Shifts in global PV inverter market rankings Global PV inverter M/S breakdown (2019)
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Wood Mackenzie, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
(GW) (US$bn)
APAC Europe Americas Africa/Middle East North America Europe APAC Other
250 20
17.6
21
200 19
15 36 15 2020-25F CAGR: +15%
2019-24F CAGR: +13% 9 39
41
150 39 51
3 44 10
6 29 33 40 8.6
100 4 23
2
15 16 22
2 12 25
18 10 5
1 8 108 116 122
50 11 103
9 70 70 72 83
36 51
0 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
Source: SolarEdge, IHS, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Industry data, MarketsandMarkets, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Domestic Overseas
(GW)
40 Domestic Overseas 100% 6%
9% 8% 8% 12% 13%
25% 29%
80%
30
60%
23
20 91% 94% 92% 92% 88% 87%
40% 75% 71%
3 5
9
10 1 20%
1
10 12 12 12
8 8 0%
0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1H20
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Newly installed solar PV capacity (2009-20): Global vs. China Major M&As in the global PV inverter market
(GW)
120 Global China
100
80
60
40
20
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: IRENA, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: www.pointthegap.com, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Sungrow: ESS revenue growth Chinese ESS market rankings based on newly installed capacity (2019)
(CNYmn) (MW)
Revenue (L) YoY growth (R)
3,000 100% 100
2,500 80
80%
2,000
60
60%
1,500
40
40%
1,000
20
20%
500
0
Shanghai
Dynavolt Tech
Sungrow
CLOU
Narada
Zhiguang
HyperStrong
Cubenergy
Ray Power
NR Electric
Guoxuan
Storage
Electric
Energy
0 0%
2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: CNESA Global Energy Storage Database, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Price (local Market cap P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) EPS growth (%)
Company Ticker
currency) (US$mn) 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F 21F 22F
Sungrow 300274 CH 72.5 16,324 35.2 27.0 8.0 6.3 25.2 26.0 59.2 30.2
Enphase Energy ENPH US 149.9 19,338 76.0 56.9 23.9 17.1 41.6 43.3 33.5 42.1
SolarEdge SEDG US 256.3 13,218 53.9 42.5 9.9 8.2 20.9 21.9 26.7 28.7
SMA Solar Technology S92 GR 48.7 2,022 67.1 55.7 3.9 3.4 6.6 6.3 20.4 41.9
Avg. of PV inverter players 65.7 51.7 12.5 9.6 23.0 23.8 26.9 37.5
LONGi Green Energy Technology 601012 CH 98.1 57,189 44.1 33.1 10.5 8.2 24.6 25.3 33.2 22.6
Tongwei 600438 CH 38.8 26,988 38.6 30.8 6.9 5.8 19.6 19.8 25.0 25.2
Xinyi Solar 968 HK 13.1 14,918 16.9 15.3 3.8 3.3 24.6 23.7 10.8 17.7
Tianjin Zhonghuan Semi. 002129 CH 26.6 12,479 58.0 38.8 4.7 4.2 8.1 10.8 49.5 31.2
Flat Glass Group 601865 CH 30.8 9,417 40.4 25.3 9.0 7.0 24.8 28.2 60.0 26.8
Daqo New Energy DQ US 110.3 6,883 18.0 16.4 2.2 2.0 13.0 13.1 9.7 9.5
Wacker Chemie WCH GY 44,700.0 6,523 13.1 11.7 1.1 1.0 8.8 9.0 11.6 (15.6)
Hanwha Solutions 009830 KS 86.1 5,985 42.0 18.2 8.4 4.6 22.5 31.6 130.6 14.7
Canadian Solar CSIQ US 127,000.0 2,670 22.3 16.9 1.2 1.1 5.3 6.7 32.3 34.2
OCI 010060 KS 41.5 2,448 25.2 20.8 1.5 1.3 6.8 9.1 21.1 38.0
JinkoSolar JKS US 14.1 1,969 19.4 10.5 1.5 1.3 7.3 12.1 85.3 36.6
Risen Energy 300118 CH 40.9 1,914 13.1 9.6 1.0 0.9 8.6 10.9 37.1 1.2
Avg. of solar PV equipment players 29.3 20.6 4.3 3.4 14.5 16.7 42.2 20.2
CATL 300750 CH 325.6 117,219 146.1 98.9 13.5 12.0 10.1 12.8 47.6 32.6
NARI Technology 600406 CH 28.4 20,316 25.3 21.4 3.8 3.4 15.2 16.0 18.3 17.2
Shanghai Putailai 603659 CH 90.3 6,925 53.0 38.2 7.1 6.1 16.6 18.0 39.0 29.2
Hongfa Technology 600885 CH 51.1 5,887 36.6 29.9 5.9 5.1 16.5 17.3 22.5 24.0
Avg. of other notable players 65.3 47.1 7.6 6.6 14.6 16.0 31.9 25.7
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Sungrow: 12-month forward P/E band chart Sungrow: 12-month forward P/B band chart
(CNY) (CNY)
120 120 12.5x
50x 100 10x
90
40x 80
7.5x
60 60
30x
5x
40
20x
30 2.5x
20
10x
0
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
(x) (x)
60 15
50 12
40
9
+2 SD
30
+1 SD 6 +2 SD
20
5Y avg. +1 SD
10 3 5Y avg.
-1 SD
-1 SD
0 -2 SD 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Source: BP, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Tsinghua University, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Industrial Park I 18 20 20 30 40 50
Industrial Park II 10 20 30
30.96% 5.21% 1% 62.83%
Indian factory 0.5 1.5 3 10 10 10
Xinjiang
SE Asia factory 0.5 1.5 5 Cao Renxian Shangge Zheng Guibiao Other
Equity Inv.
ESS 3 3 5 10 15 20
Wind converters 7 8 10 15 20 25
10.44%
Total 28.5 32.5 38.0 75.5 106.5 140.0
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Disclosures
As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding.
Analyst certification
The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered
as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws or regulations thereof. Each Analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report
accurately reflect the personal views of the Analyst about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report and (ii) no part of the compensation of the Analyst was, is, or will be directly or
indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households
from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director, or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise
specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this
report. Like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the
institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading, and private client divisions. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material
conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein.
Disclaimers
This report was prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo, a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Korea and a member of the Korea Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been
compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been independently verified and Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty,
express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Korean language. In case of an
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report does not constitute investment advice to any person, and such person shall not be treated as a client of Mirae Asset Daewoo by virtue of receiving this report. This report does not take into account
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opinions contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may depreciate
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