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Lecture 5 - Inferential Statistics

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Lecture 5 - Inferential Statistics

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mailtqbh01116
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Lecture 5

Inferential Statistics
Contents

1. Principles of inferential statistics

2. Point Estimation

3. Interval Estimation

4. Hypothesis Testing

5. Link to a part of P4
Contents

1. Principles of inferential statistics

2. Point Estimation

3. Interval Estimation

4. Hypothesis Testing

5. Link to a part of P4
Principles

• The reason we select a sample is to collect data to


answer a research question about a population.
• The sample results provide only estimates of the values of
the population characteristics.
• The reason is simply that the sample contains only a
portion of the population.
• With proper sampling methods, the sample results can
provide “good” estimates of the population characteristics.
Principles

The sample data help us to make an estimate of a


population parameter. There are 2 types of estimation for
population parameters:
• Point Estimate: we use the data from the sample to
compute a value of a sample statistic that serves as an
estimate of a population parameter.
• Interval Estimate: is a range of values
𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 = 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 ± 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸
Process of statistical
inference
Contents

1. Principles of inferential statistics

2. Point Estimation

3. Interval Estimation

4. Hypothesis Testing

5. Link to a part of P4
Point Estimation

• Point estimation is a form of statistical inference.


• In point estimation we use the data from the sample to compute a value of a
sample statistic that serves as an estimate of a population parameter.
Example

• St. Andrew’s College received 900 applications from prospective students.


The application form contains a variety of information including the
individual’s Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) score and whether or not the
individual desires on-campus housing.
• At a meeting in a few hours, the Director of Admissions would like to
announce the average SAT score and the proportion of applicants that
want to live on campus, for the population of 900 applicants.
• The data on the applicants have not yet been entered in the college’s
database. So the Director decides to estimate the values of the population
parameters of interest based on sample statistics. A sample of 30
applicants is selected using computer-generated random numbers.
Example
Example
Example
Contents

1. Principles of inferential statistics

2. Point Estimation

3. Interval Estimation

4. Hypothesis Testing

5. Link to a part of P4
Margin of Error and the
Interval Estimate
• A point estimator cannot be expected to provide the exact
value of the population parameter.
• An interval estimate can be computed by adding and
subtracting a margin of error to the point estimate.
• Point estimate ± Margin of error
• The purpose of an interval estimate is to provide
information about how close the point estimate is to the
value of the parameter.
Interval Estimate of a
Population Mean: σ Known
Interval Estimate of a
Population Mean: σ Known
Meaning of C%
Confidence
Exercise

Discount Sounds has 260 retail outlets throughout the United


States. The firm is evaluating a potential location for a new
outlet, based in part, on the mean annual income of the
individuals in the marketing area of the new location.
A sample of size n = 36 was taken; the sample mean income is
$41,100. The population is not believed to be highly skewed.
The population standard deviation is estimated to be $4,500,
and the confidence coefficient to be used in the interval
estimate is 0.95.
Question: estimate the population mean.
Interval Estimate of a
Population Mean: σ
Unknown
t-distribution

• For more than 100 degrees of freedom, the standard normal z value provides
a good approximation to the t value.
• The standard normal z values can be found in the infinite degrees (∞) row of
the t distribution table.
Interval Estimate of a
Population Mean: σ Unknown
Exercise

Example: Apartment Rents

A reporter for a student newspaper is writing an article on the cost of


off-campus housing. A sample of 16 one-bedroom apartments within 1
kilometer of campus resulted in a sample mean of $750 per month and
a sample standard deviation of $55.

Let us provide a 95% confidence interval estimate of the mean rent per
month for the population of one-bedroom apartments within 1 kilometer
of campus. We will assume this population to be normally distributed.
Adequate Sample Size

• Usually, a sample size of at least 30 is adequate when


using a t interval to estimate a population mean.
• If the population distribution is highly skewed or contains
outliers, a sample size of 50 or more is recommended.
• If the population is not normally distributed but is roughly
symmetric, a sample size as small as 15 will suffice.
• If the population is believed to be at least approximately
normal, a sample size of less than 15 can be used.
Contents

1. Principles of inferential statistics

2. Point Estimation

3. Interval Estimation

4. Hypothesis Testing

5. Link to a part of P4
Hypothesis Testing
Developing Null and
Alternative Hypotheses
• It is not always obvious how the null and alternative
hypotheses should be formulated.
• Care must be taken to structure the hypotheses appropriately
so that the test conclusion provides the information the
researcher wants.
• The context of the situation is very important in determining
how the hypotheses should be stated.
• In some cases it is easier to identify the alternative hypothesis
first. In other cases the null is easier.
• Correct hypothesis formulation will take practice.
Developing Null and
Alternative Hypotheses
Alternative Hypothesis as a Research Hypothesis
– Many applications of hypothesis testing involve an attempt to gather evidence in
support of a research hypothesis.
– In such cases, it is often best to begin with the alternative hypothesis and make it
the conclusion that the researcher hopes to support.
– The conclusion that the research hypothesis is true is made if the sample data
provides sufficient evidence to show that the null hypothesis can be rejected.

Example: A new teaching method is developed that is believed to be better than the
current method.

Null Hypothesis: The new method is no better than the old method.
Alternative Hypothesis: The new teaching method is better.
Developing Null and
Alternative Hypotheses
Example

Example: Metro EMS

A major west coast city provides one of the most comprehensive


emergency medical services in the world. Operating in a multiple
hospital system with approximately 20 mobile medical units, the
service goal is to respond to medical emergencies with a mean time of
12 minutes or less.

The director of medical services wants to formulate a hypothesis test


that could use a sample of emergency response times to determine
whether or not the service goal of 12 minutes or less is being achieved.
p-Value Approach to One-
Tailed Hypothesis Testing
• The p-value is the probability, computed using the test
statistic, that measures the support (or lack of support)
provided by the sample for the null hypothesis.
• If the p-value is less than or equal to the level of
significance α, the value of the test statistic is in the
rejection region.
• Reject H0 if the p-value ≤ α.
Suggested Guidelines for
Interpreting p-Values
Critical Value Approach to One-
Tailed Hypothesis Testing
Steps of hypothesis
testing
Example
Example: Metro EMS

A major west coast city provides one of the most comprehensive emergency medical
services in the world. Operating in a multiple hospital system with approximately 20
mobile medical units, the service goal is to respond to medical emergencies with a
mean time of 12 minutes or less.

The response times for a random sample of 40 medical emergencies were tabulated.
The sample mean is 13.25 minutes. The population standard deviation is believed to
be 3.2 minutes.

The EMS director wants to perform a hypothesis test, with a .05 level of significance, to
determine whether the service goal of 12 minutes or less is being achieved.
Example
Example
Example
Example
Contents

1. Principles of inferential statistics

2. Point Estimation

3. Interval Estimation

4. Hypothesis Testing

5. Link to a part of P4
A part of P4

• A part of P4: Inferential statistics illustrating the


differences between population and sample based on
different sampling techniques and methods.
• One sample t-test is an application of today lecture on
your dataset.
THE END

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