Fortune Telling in History
Fortune Telling in History
to come. In not one single instance of completed record have these pre-
dictions proven true, from the vauntings of that Eastern despot, ruler of
the world, who asked, “Is not this great Babylon which I have built by
the might of my power?” to the all-conquering Roman, who revealed his
mind In calling his capital “the Eternal City.”
I once saw a gentleman set out in a buggy accompanied by his little
dog, to visit some place. The dog, believing he knew the course and the
intended end of the journey, ran on ahead several blocks, but when
he looked back, the master was turning an unexpected corner, and the
dog was obliged to retrace his steps. Overtaking his master, he ran on
ahead a second time supposing that now, at least, he knew the direction
intended, but only to have to return a second time, and indeed, a third
time. Now, the streets away from which the man turned were broader
and fairer than those into which he turned, and the dog apparently
showed better judgment in selecting the route than his master, but the
contrary was really true, for the dog had misunderstood the purpose of
the master. The broad streets were those upon which hundreds of his
master’s friends were driving and it seemed the natural way for him
to go also; but when finally the ill-paved narrow route he really took
brought him into a new district of the city where finer houses than any
along the paved avenues were going up, where finer lawns were being
sodded, and ampler grounds laid out, it was seen that the higher intel-
ligence which had thwarted and disappointed the lower was vindicated
in its course. This, I take it, is a,complete illustration of what God
does among nations. Sociologists, philosophers, and savants point out
the ways of nations along the magnificent pathways and avenues al-
ready thrown up by an anterior civilization, only to find that God has
guided them by a way never before traveled, for He, too, has new dis-
tricts to be dev eloped, new ways to be paved, and the philosopher finds,
like the little dog, that he must retrace his steps and revise his prognos-
tications to be at one with the Master Mind.
Yet, however variant the types, civilization has never gone back-
ward. The overrulings of a, beneficent Providence have pushed the race
ever onward—not always, indeed, the same nationality through the
whole course; not always the same ideals, but still the human race, in
uew combination, in new territory, in new purpose. Reverting to the
figure just used, sometimes the horse in the buggy may assert his own
will and refuse to turn the way the master directs; he must then be
supplanted by one more tractable. Perhaps the horse at some stage of
the journey may lose faith in his master’s directing power, or feel too
exuberant from pampering, and run away, breaking up the buggy. The
master must then get both a new horse and a stronger buggy. Any and
all of these things astonish the little dog. He had no plan in his mind
for anything except the trip in safety as he wished it. Thus refractory
nations have been supplanted by tractable ones who would go the
Master’s way; or reckless nations which have gone wild and wrecked
their civilization, have had to see a new nation lead on to a higher and
better civilization than theirs.
FORTUNE-TELLING IN HISTORY 5
When Patrick Henry said he knew of no way to judge the future but
by the past, he gained the consent of thoughtful men everywhere; but,
as a-matter of fact, the greatest misjudgments men have ever made
have been based upon the past. They seem to forget that the moment
new and unknown manifestations cease, progress turns upon itself and
a circle is begun; but so teaches the lesson of the ages. Thus each civ-
ilization has proclaimed itself the abiding one, and the leading people
have always justified their belief in the permanence of their own pri-
macy. They ask, What have these inferiors following in my train ever
done in the past to justify their hope of a higher place tnan they now
hold? Wrapped in the grasp of these preconceptions, the course and
meaning of the events of every century have been ticketed in all sin-
cerity with a false, though plausible, significance by contemporary phil-
osophers, and the real bearings not seen till new generations looked
back from their places midway in the next century. Nor is this very
strange., The man overboard buffeting with the waves is the last man
to know that the storm is abating. He is too much in it to note any
change that does not actually pluck him out of the water.
Suppose we briefly notice a few of the things in history which men
have seen and misinterpreted.
In 675 B. C., when Esar-Haddon,'king of Assyria, conquered Egypt,
it seemed to him that the star of Assyrian ascendancy had risen never
to set; to Egypt, it seemed that civilization (for hers was the highest of
the time) went down into eternal night. Both were wrong. Assyrian
ascendancy was a momentary thing, and Egyptian civilization was not
lost It was God’s way of passing it through Persia into Greece. It
was transplanting the tree from the tropical habitat of Asia and Africa,
favorable to great physical development, into the keener climate of Eu-
rope conducive to stronger and higher nervous development. The Lux-
ors and Karnacs were the growths of a physical civilization; Greece
was mind and soul. And when Rome, great, brawny, quarreling, fight-
ing Rome, replaced the click of a Phidias’ hammer with the clang of a
Caesar’s spear and shield, if there ever was reversion in civilization,
here it was; but it really was the conquest of will over sentiment, the
prevailing of action over meditation. Greece could never nave fought a
Gallic War nor quelled a British yeomanry. What did Alari'c and his
hordes of blood-drinking Barbarians represent to the Romans when
these savages overran their paved streets and gazed in contempt upon
the marble baths of that great people. Simply and solely destruction,
savagery and ignorance unspeakable. The very Barbarians themselves
saw no other meaning than more room for themselves and the destruc-
tion of effeminacy and artificiality from the earth. But it really meant
England, France, Greater Germany,—in short, Western Europe. It
meant Charlemagne, Columbus, America. It meant the Christian re-
ligion, the dignity of the common people. It meant the Reformation,
the steamship and world communication, the railroad and interior de-
velopment, the telegraph and annihilation of distance. All these and
6 FORTUNE-TELLING IN HISTORY
more. But who saw it then? Let us turn to a few important mind
movements that were misjudged either in what it was thought they
would do or destroy.
When Peter the Hermit aroused the whole Western world to go to
the Holy Land to rescue it from the Mohammedan unbeliever, the na-
tions and the Church saw in it God’s will and their sure success. But
the seven Crusades, covering nearly two hundred years, left the land
still in the hands of the Mohammedans. The Saracens and Christians
agreed in believing the Crusades a failure. They did not see what was
accomplished. We do. The rude European soldiers were brought into
contact with a learning so far above any in their lands that they were
astounded. They brought back Arabian algebra, alchemy, alcohol, as-
trology, and a hundred civilized arts to which Europe had been a
stranger. They came in contact with the corruption of the Roman hier-
archy and were absolved from their superstitious fears, so that bound
up in those Crusades were both the English universities and the Ger-
man Reformation.
The Dark Ages were read as the end of civilization. They were the
brooding time, in fact. It was then that human thought was hibernat-
ing after the exhaustion of three thousand years of physical ideals, pre-
paratory to the erection of new political and philosophical ones.
The French Revolution did not destroy all government, as it seemed
to threaten in its mad struggle for liberty from all law and religion,
nor did Napoleon destroy all freedom in his nation-chaining career.
They gave the world a republic instead of anarchy or despotism, and in
the pitting of the individualistic ideal of Anglo-Saxon against the com-
munistic one of Latin, they perpetuated liberty and expansion of wealth
throughout the world. They sounded the death-knell of slavery and
made sure the foundations of the growing American republic.
Peter the Great showed a shrewd understanding of the contradic-
tions of apparent truths when, after repeated defeats by Charles XII,
of Sweden, he said, “It is ail right. Hb is simply teaching me how to
whip him.’’ So it was.
Let us for a moment bring these reflections nearer home. When
Evolution was first proclaimed, it seemed to presage the end of the Bible
as authority in religion. Both Christian and infidel so regarded it.
It really broke the bands of an unscientific age and released ecclesi-
astical learning from dogma. The Sabbath-school teacher knows more
arguments for the authenticity and authority of the Bible to-day than
theologians in the time of Jonathan Edwards. Higher criticism is con-
fronted by archaeology, and a Harper met by a Sayce!
The American Civil War v/as fought to destroy the doctrine of
States’ Rights. Both the North and the South believed that the fate of
that issue was involved. The contest began beween Jefferson and Ham-
ilton. But though the North won, States’ Rights is the accepted doc-
trine of the nation still. A new issue not intended was settled—the
question of slavery. Was the war then a failure? Not so; men are be-
FORTUNE-TKLtlNG IN HISTORY 7
ginning to see that a nation cannot be more righteous tnan its public
conscience, and the onus of moral responsibility has been put upon each
individual rather than upon the government. This, of course, gives law-
less elements power to control where they exist, but acts powerfully to
stamp out their existence. The constant appeal to civilization, human-
ity and religion is not fruitless. Does any one suppose tnat under the
mailed hand of military occupancy in the Southern States free schools
would flourish by the voluntary action and will of the people as they do
under local self-government?
We might easily multiply instances tending to show that man has
made poor headway in understanding the meaning of national and so-
cial phenomena and in predicting the outcome of a movement. Let us
now note a few of the reasons.
It is not because there is not a philosophy of history. If human na-
ture is essentially a constant quantity, as all believe, knowing the qual-
ities to' be affected and the powers that affect them, we can tell what
action will come, or be attempted, under a certain set of circumstances.
This is true of individuals. It is also true of masses, which are but con-
gregated individuals; but in this case the calculation must not only take
into consideration each individual, but such modifications of self-mani-
festation as arise from his relation to all the others. When we pause to
reflect that, though human nature is one, it is exceedingly difficult to
know, a difficulty, too, multiplied in geometric ratio in a social organism,
we can begin to see the magnitude of the problems. A certain man who
owed a debt promised to bring a load of hay to his creditor in payment.
But when he got to town, instead of doing as he promised, he sold the
hay for cash to another man. The creditor, meeting him, said, “Didn’t
you promise to bring me that hay?” “Yes, sir.” “Well, you didn’t do
it, did you?” “No, sir.” “Weil, you lied, didn’t you?” “Yes, sir.”
“What made you do it?” “Well, I don’t know, boss, cep’en I ain’t de
man I took myself to be.” Most of us find that difficulty in trying to
read human nature. We find we are not the men we take ourselves
to be.
One of the first reasons for failure in prophecy is that each nation
leading in any civilization is intensely egotistic. It is hard to see that its
greatness comes out of the tomb of a preceding civilization. ’Tis true,
other people have perished in the midst of their greatness, but we al-
ways think we see their mistake and will not repeat it. Just as though
there are not other mistakes for new conditions! Greece, Rome, Italy,
Spain, Austria, Scandinavia, each in turn believed it had the torch for-
ever. Even Turkey once saw visions of undying power and universal
empire. It is hard to convince a man in the full tide of health and hap-
piness that he will die. Secondly, it is hard to see in any people more
than it has already given indication of. For this reason leading nations
are apt to be supercilious with small ones and require of them a sign,
and as no people can prove what is in them before the time of proof,
they are referred to their eventless past and told to stand aside. Japan
8 FORTUNE-TELLING IN HISTORY
kettle by order of King Solomon for many years. From time to time he
had promised immense rewards to the one who would release him, but
at last, none coming, iu exasperation he had sworn to kill the first one
who set him free. The unfortunate fisherman was that person. So it
would seem to be with us to-day. We seem not only in prospect of in-
voluntary expansion, but of certain death by the exasperation of the
great forces so long bound down, but which modern, science and inven-
tion, under Christianity, are releasing upon us. Our great trusts and the
rampant spirit of immoral commercialism threatens our existence more
and more every day. Our foretellers in history can, therefore, no longer
forecast from old conditions, or even depend on the present ones, and
having done so is the cause of their discomfiture to-day.
Fourthly, we forget that eacli new power shown is called forth by
the condition that needs it, and each new condition creates its own
spirit, if not actually new powers. Under ordinary circumstances things
retain their identity and qualities, but under stress of a certain kind of
vitalized contact we may get a people very different from the original
stock and thus a new force appears upon the scene. Hydrogen and
oxygen would be iu the same vessel a century and still be hydrogen
and oxygen; but pass an electric spark into the vessel au6 we have wa-
ter formed at once. So nations long inert and barbarous, oy the vivify-
ing power of au outer civilization sometimes take on entirely new qual-
ities and become active factors in the world’s progress. This is what
actually occurred to make England the great power she is. Who would
suppose from any evidence extant, outside of history, that the German
is the same stock as the Englishman? So it is, however; yet one cannot
understand the other speak even, and their ideas of government and
colonizing are diametrically opposite. In one, popular power is with-
held as far as possible and the divine right of kings still lags super-
fluous on the stage; in' the other, popular government is tne most cher-
ished part of administration, and it is a kingdom by courtesy. Nay,
the contrast is still greater between America and Germany. Who can
tell what Japan and China may become under the inspiration of that
sanguine Western civilization that now begins to permeate their mum-
mied veins? Who can tell what will be the next nation to come forth
from the womb of time? Will it be an African nation, one of the tardy
barbarous interior Asiatic peoples, or some strong agricultural little re-
public Switzerland—who will prophesy?
Fifthly, men use the same chronology in estimating national growth
now that they usedl in the centuries before Christ; but it requires only
a little thought to see that days now do the deeds of years, and years,
of centuries long ago. Rome took two thousand years to become a pow-
er; England took a thousand; but young America was in tne full tide of
national greatness when she was a hundred; and most wonderful of all,
Japan, counting only thirty years since she was thrilled by the spark, is
teaching our mathematics, using our railroads, operating our machinery,
sending messages with our telegraphs, managing our gun-boats and
10 FORTUNE-TELLING IN HISTORY
whipping with our cannon. She is wearing our clothes, competing with
our commerce and hedging with our diplomacy. American carpets are
on her floors, our standards enter into her monetary system, and popu-
lar government and legislative processes rule. Have we begun to re-
alize that it only takes a few day3 now to make a world-power? Men
not only move faster and carry more things, better made, in this age of
steam and electricity, but they think faster, think better, follow thought
by action sooner, and thus bring forth more fruit than in tne days of the
“one-hoss shay” and the ox-cart. Tennyson’s lines, “Better a day in
Europe than a cycle in Cathay,” will soon be an anachronism, for Ca-
thay bids fair to live Its cycle in a European day.
Sixthly, in predicting the career of nations, we are apt to give an ac-
cidental and adventitious occurrence the weight of one produced by long
continuing, though hidden, causes, or a phenomenon may ne referred to
the wrong couse. For instance, M. Demolins, in discussing the causes
for France’s decline, finds it not in the things to which men have gen-
erally attributed it, but in the false system of education in France,
which prepares boys to get office and stay at home, rather than for the
struggle for existence in the great, wide, inviting outside world which
the English are taking to themselves.
Seventhly, it is next to impossible to provide, in a forecast of a peo-
ple’s future status, for the effect of the undeveloped tendencies arising
from unknown factors in their ancestry. Our history of races and na-
tions is very imperfect. All we do know is that there are no pure, un-
mixedl people) in the civilized world, but what and how many elements
enter into each, no one can tell. Yet it is still true that “biood will tell.”
These seven difficulties, suggesting possibly many more, give some
idea of the elements with which the prophet or foreteller must dea1 in
order to forecast the horoscope of nuy people. It is much easier to take
things as they are and predict the perpetuity of the nation then in the
ascendant, for this method has the advantage to him who is not con-
cerned about posthumous fame, that it will make him popular in life
and no one of those who exalt him will be living to witness the failure
of his prophecy. *
I speak here to an American audience, and it is well known that the
presence in large numbers of the Negro has given rise to two classes of
inquiry: (1) What is to become of the nation through its dealings with
these people? and (2) What degree of civilization and capacity to de-
velop will they show in the years to, come? This, as I have intimated,
is a difficult inquiry under any circumstances, owing to the many and
complicated considerations which affect the answer; but it is especially
so when we consider that a large class of people who contribute to the
judgment will not hear the evidence to be had, or will not eliminate
their predilections from the verdict they are asked to make np. In ask-
ing what part, the Negro is to contribute to American civilization, it is
pertinent to inquire what that civilization consists of. And this is not
such a simple inquiry as sciolists are wont to believe. Guizot has
FORTDNE-XRIyLING IN HISTORY 11
given this matter of civilization much study, and his definition, largely
accepted and quoted throughout the world of scholars, divides it into
two parts or elements, the social or associated development, or life, of
a nation; and the moral life, or development of the individuals forming
that nation. One may exist in great perfection without the other. I see
in a window a rug of beautiful figure, the colors harmonize perfectly,
the design is elegaut and chaste, but on near approach, I find that it is
made of jute, or some other very coarse material. Thus are nations
constituted. The pattern of their civil and social institutions may be
worthy of admiration, but the constituent elements, the units, the indi-
vidual quality of the men of that nation, may be very coarse and crude;
or, vice versa, the social and civil structure may be loose or repellant,
but its units well developed.
Rome was an instance of the first—a well-ordered government of a
people of low moral development; while Palestine was an instance of
the latter—a poor civil organism made up of people highly developed in
the individual. Now, it is clear there can be no perfect civilization in
the absence of either civil or personal excellence. In a weak civil as-
sociation, the ends of social existence, of commerce, ana of invention
will be but poorly met. In an inferior development of personal morali-
»• • ty and conscience, the home, the family, virtue, honor and regard for
others, will be swallowed up in a grinding selfish organism that lives by
preying upon the weak and unprotected. With both, we have a happy,
honorable, virtuous and high-minded people, full of vigor, organic power
and enterprise,—a great nation within and without. Can tue encomiums
which have been heaped upon our form of government, its enterprise
and invincibility, be extended to praise of its units as moral factors? or
is it not true that there is not a uniform development in, all sections of
the nobler qualities of the inner life? What can disregard of law and
order mean but a low moral state among the people who endure it? A
I very few moments’ thought will show that the standard of moral sen-
timent is of varying elevation in the different sections of our country.
New England has long been noted for its high regard of the virtues, and
for human life and happiness. And while the pouring of a constant
mi- stream of foreign and lower elements has carried in, to some extent, a
deterioration, it is still true tjrat relatively New England remains the
I
type of the best American civilization. Here is the testimony on this
point given by Rev. Dr. Steele, editor of the Rambler, a Southern man:
“In all the elements of a high civilization, industrial, intellectual, and
moral, New England is a century ahead of the South.” The standard in
the West is lower, owing to the primitive conditions that prevailed in
the conquering of that region, as well asi to the immense influx of for-
eign elements. It should be remembered that the Western people were
mainly young emigrants full of the radical and vital tendencies of youth
unrestrained by the counsel, experience and conservatism of their aged
sires in the East, lacking largely the offices of religion and settling for
an avowedly sordid purpose. The South has in some respects the low-
12 FORTUNE-TELLING IN HISTORY ■
in his veins. Now, add to this the admixtures of alien blood, Indian,
Malay, African and Mongolian, coming from England's world-wide
colonies, both from illicit commence and by cross-marriages, and the fic-
tion of a pure Anglo-Saxon blood has not much more left in it than
Colonel Ingersoll’s famous hotel, which was weather-beaten and de-
serted, but whose sign still swung in the breeze proclaiming the legend
of its halcyon days, “Entertainment for Man and Beast i” If this is
true of staid, conservative old England, what shall we say of the
American who, not content with the blend as he brought it from across
the sea, poured into the pot pound Spanish, French, German, Hun-
garian, Foie. Swedish, Negro and Indian ingredients. If it be agreed
that the term' Anglo-Saxon is used for the sake of brevity to cover the
people of England and America regardless of the fact of blood, we
cannot well object, except to say that its use is unfortunate in that it
selects a word having a real and proper meaning to designate a fact not
belonging to that proper meaning, and is, to that extent, confusing and
misleading. The real fact is, that the resisting quality ot some of the
decried bloods is more remarkable than the absorbing power shown
by the Anglo-Saxon; for a hundred years of contact with American
blood, language and institutions have utterly failed to eradicate either
the physical characteristics or language of the Spaniards in Florida and
Texas, or the French in Louisiana and Canada, though they accept and
are proud of the title, American citizen, thus reducing to the mini-
mum the conscious resistance. But there is another word to be said in
this connection. If it were granted that Anglo Saxon domination is in-
deed a matter of pure blood, both England and America would rob
their boasted lineage of much that is greatest in their world of achieve-
ment and statesmanship. From the time of Cabot down to Disraeli
and Gladstone, to say nothing of her Carlyles, Burnses, Moores, Gold-
smiths and Rothschildses, men not of Saxon blood have contributed
the most glorious pages to English history and literature. They were
Anglo-Saxons only by the fiction, not by blood. And the same is true
in America to an even greater degree. It will be surprising how many
of our greatest names have other than Saxon origin. Probably Lin-
coln and Grant are our strongest names to conjure with wnen we would
exalt the Anglo-Saxon strain in our history. At least, this is true in our
political history. Demolins, in his great work on “Anglo-Saxon Superi-
ority: to What. Is It Due?” seeks to segregate what in the two Anglo-
Saxon countries belongs to the other bloods. Celtic, Welsh and Norman.
He finds that the leading' characteristic of the Anglo-Saxon is attachment
to agriculture, industriesand commerce, while the other strains just nam-
ed run to politics and the liberal professions. The Celts, for instance, pre-
dominate in Ireland, in the Scotch Highlands, Australian towns, and in
New Zealand. In America politics is mainly run by the Germans and
Irish, Tammany being a noted instance in point. The Normans have given
to England its law of primogeniture, its hereditary nobility and the
House of Lords. It will thus be seen that a scientific investigation into
16 FORTUNE-TELLING IN HISTORY
these things destroys many misconceptions, and overthrows the idea that
all manifestations of our history belong to one strain alone. It is to
be understood that there is no effort here to overthrow tne fact of the
actual superiority of these countries. It is freely admitted and rejoiced
in, but the contention is simply that it is less a matter ot blood foreor-
dained to rule because of inhernt unconquerability, than it is, in part,
characteristics predominant in other races entering into our com-
1
posite one.
Note one fact, while we are on the question of blood. If present
indications are to be the criteria for making up a judgment as to the
races to rule in the future, we cannot ignore the Slav, whose empire is
to-day the strongest in the world and whose rapid development from
barbarism to a world-power has been the wonder of the century. Own-
ing more of Europe than all the other powers put together, owning
more of Asia than any power in the world, recently having fastened a
grasp on China that, in its other history, it has never been known to
relax, possessing the strategic position of having contact with almost
every European power and with nearly every European dependency in
Asia, the hardiest of the hardy by reason of a rigorous climate, the
most energetic people of the world by reason of the same fact, pos-
sessed of the wheat fields of the Eastern world, and profiting by the
unity of a despotic government that is enlightened enough to cull the
best from the other civilizations of both continents,—we may well sup-
pose these advantages, with tiie demonstrated power to appreciate, de-
velop and use them, must presage a remarkable future ror the people
possessing them. Not even the climate theory is against the greatness
of Russia.
And again, shall the ease with which Japan, a Mongolian people,
the most variant, except the Negro, from the white races, has put on
exteriorly and imbibed in spirit the civilization we are accustomed to
call Anglo-Saxon, have no meaning with us in pointing out a new and
higher path for her in the future? Related to one continent by her insu-
lar position as England, her great prototype, is to another, will their
careers show a similar course? And will China, sorely vexed and raped
now, receive the seed of progress by the violence which disrupts her
stagnant and archaic life, and produce a strength and power in the next
century commensurate with her numerical and territorial magnitude?
Here are mighty problems for our oracles to answer.
Prince Konoyne, President of the Japanese House of Lords, re-
cently visited this country, accompanied by a native professor of Tokio
University. He stated that he came to gain an intimate knowledge of
the American political situation and to get data that might be valuable
in the government of Japan. The professor said: “We nave adopted
many of your Western ideas, and find that our young people take to
them with avidity.” These two statements were made respectively in
fluent German and English!
A few days ago Philadelphia saw the unusual spectacle of a Chinese
FORTUNE-TELLING^ IN HISTORY 17
Greek grammar and read a paper before the American Philological So-
ciety on “The Birds of Aristophanes.”
3. Thomas Jefferson said: “I do not believe him capable of demon-
strating a proposition in Euclid.”
Kelley Miller is now professor of mathematics in Howard Uni-
versity, Washington City. Mr. Pelham, of Detroit, Mich., was assistant
civil engineer for the Michigan Central Railroad when ne died. The
professor of higher mathematics in a Southern Negro college is in-
structing the white county surveyor how to calculate railroad curves!
4. Robert Tqombs said: “I will yet call the roll of my slaves under
the shadow of Bunker Hill Monument.”
To-day the tax-rolls of his ex-slaves are being called under the
shadow of his old home in Georgia.
Notice that in each of these cases the argument seemed conclusive,
and nothing was forthcoming in rebuttal; but Time had not qualified her
witnesses to answer—that was all.
5. It was predicted that the Negro would not work in a state of
freedom.
Here is the answer: In 1865, to consider one item alone, four and
a half million Negroes produced 3,000,000 bales of cotton, or two-thirds
of a bale to the man; in 1808, after thirty-three years of freedom, nine
million Negroes produced 10,000,000 bales, or over one whole bale to
the man.
6. He was said to be too improvident to accumulate property, and
many philanthropic persons expressed the fear that, turned loose as he
was, without experience and without a dollar, he would starve. But
he did not starve and he does not beg. On the contrary, the estimated
values upon which he pays taxes (and this excludes bis church and
school property) are $400,000,000. Nineteen per cent, of the Negro fam-
ilies are home owners, the census showing 264,288 homes owned, with
234,747 of them free from incumbrance. Taken out of its setting of the
brief time in which this has been done, and away from all comparison
with the achievements of other people always free, these figures may
not mean much; but with these back-grounds, the showing is phe-
nomenal. The Negro has been free only one-third of a century. In
France and the United States (white), where conditions are the best, the
ratio of home-owning to non-home-owning families is as 1 to 2; in Ger-
many, 1 to 3; in England, 1 to 5; in Ireland, 1 to 10; among the Amer-
ican Negroes, 1 to 5. Here is a state of mind for the fortune-tellers.
7. It was held that the Negro was a good imitator and follower,
but a failure in initiative and organizing power.
It is only a little while ago since definite matter tending to dis-
prove this view was available. Aside from what could be seen in a
general way among Negro churches, there was nothing on the other side
to adduce, but it is somewhat different now. For over a hundred years,
two great Negro church organizations, claiming, combined, over a mil-
lion communicants, have successfully managed their affairs, operating
fortune-telling in history 19
missionary, educational, publication, financial, church extension, and
Sunday-school bureaus, some of whose operations reach over $100,000
a year in one of these organizations, and whose field of operations
reaches both sides of the world and involves bank credit
In 1808, Dr. W. E. B. DuBois, in his third report of the Atlanta Uni-
versity Annual Conference, treats of the work of 79 churches, 92 secret
societies, 26 beneficial societies, 3 insurance societies, 21 Benevolent or-
ganizations, and 15 co-operative societies, making 236 in all. Passing
over all but the largest, the True Reformers, a co-operative enterprise,
in Richmond, Va., we find it is capitalized for $100,000, owns $115,000
in buildings, residences and the like; has 7086 depositors, and $101,-
933.32 deposited. Since its establishment, in 1889, it claims to have
handled $3,795,667.36, and to have paid out for the insurance lepart-
ment $370,910.75. This is a straw.
8. It is said that the giving of the ballot to the Negro was a, mis-
take, and that he is incapable of statesmanship.
The ballot was not given to him as a matter of fact till it was seen
that he must have it in self-defense. It was two years after he was
freed before he was made a voter, and then only after tne States had
shown by a system of apprentice and vagrant laws intended to, and
which really did, virtually re-enslave him, that he must have some
means to defend himself from the animosities engendered against him
by the issue of the Civil War. Who that criticises can suggest a better
way for his protection than that adopted? And despite r,is own igno-
rance and the Caucasian leadership that must be charged with most
that is monstrous and corrupt in that time, two facts stand out to the
eternal credit of the Negro—the only two, perhaps, that survive the new
constitutions and have the approval of the white people of the South-
public free schools for every child, and the principle of Federal appro-
priations for internal improvements. Both were opposed by the whites;
both are now cordially accepted and championed by them. No people
are more zealous in their support of public education than the Southern
white people to-day, and no Congressmen are able to make a better
argument in favor of a large appropriation than theirs. The sole rejec-
tion of the Sugar Bounty by Texas serves to emphasize the fact that she
stands alone.
9. Strange as it now seems, it was once said by the fortune-tellers
that the Negro could never learn books.
Forty-three per cent, of all ten years old and over can read and
write to-day.
10. When this failed, they fell back upon the statement that he
could ndver Lake the higher learning.
There are over 30,000 Negro graduates of colleges now in the United
States; 749 physicians, 450 lawyers, and about 30,000 school teachers.
11. But the prophets return to the charge with the statement that
he is not making progress as fast as other races with the same ad-
vantages would.
20 fortune-telling in history
In the ten years between 1880 and 1890, Negro illiteracy was re-
duced 14.8 per cent.; white illiteracy, only 4.4 per cent. There were
108,650 fewer black illiterates here in 1890 than in 1880, but there were
193,494 more white illiterates, making a net increase of 84,844, ail white.
Again, in 1876, only 3 per cent, of all Negroes were in school; in
1896, 20 per cent, were attending. In 1890, there were 170 schools for
the higher and industrial education of this race, 28 of tuem managed
by members of the race, and 6 of them founded and managed by them.
Thirty-three thousand students attend these schools.
12. Some alarmist finally raised the cry that at their rate of in-
crease, the Negroes would soon overrun the country.
In the hundred years between 1790 and 1890, the whites increased
from' a little over 3,000,000 to eighteen times as many; the Negro from
750,000 to only ten times as many.
13. Well, said a counter-alarmist, the Negro is dying out.
In 1860, there were 4,500,000 Negroes in America; to-day there are
9,000,000, a doubling in about thirty-five years.
14. —One of the main and und
that the Negro could not stand a cold climate. This, taken with the
climate theory, was intended to convey the idea that his position among
the Caucasian race must always be an inferior one.
A single instance of disproof will be sufficient to suggest others:
In 1870 there were 22,147 Negroes in Philadelphia; in 1890 there were
39,371. From 1870 to 1880 the city increased as a whole 25.69 per cent.;
hut its Negro population increased 43.13 per cent. In the ten years
from 1880 to 1890, the city increased 25.3 per cent; the Negro popula-
tion, 25 per cent.
15. Judging from his docility in slavery, it was long neld by friend
and foe that the race lacked courage to fight. But with New Orleans,
Wagner, Pillow, El Caney and San Juan before them, the fortune- tellers
are silent.
It would seem that in the face of this showing, men would allow,
if not the equality of the Negro under like conditions, at least, that
his powers are as yet unfathemed, and that more time will be required
to determine his place, but the hasty and hostile prejudgments still go
on. Why should a man fight against the decrees of Goo. and nature?
Why should he even desire to see them' changed? When the Negro has
reached his limit he will stop; till then, nothing can stop him.
Again, it would seem that it is beneath the dignity of a people who
feel themselves the masters of the world to begrudge and retard the
progress of those who can never be their rivals, as they say. Yet a
glance at the dire predictions we have just recited shows that, they are
often contradictory and agree in only one particular—in being hostile
and uncandid. Is it wise to deceive ourselves to please ourselves? Can
juggling figures strangle facts? Our sole desire should be to know
tiie truth and not be found opposing the inevitable. You ask me what
is the inevitable. I tell you I do not know; but 1 shall seek to know. At
FORTUNE-TELLING IN HISTORY 21
any rate, I shall not be found proclaiming God’s purposes till He has
revealed them.
We can know when we are against God even before we know His
will—by the spirit within us. If it is one of love and good-will and help-
fulness to all men, e’ en the Negro, we shall not be found far wrong,
no matter what we believe can or cannot be done.
It would be a fruitful inquiry to ask why so many reforms have
succeeded against the opposition of the numerous, the powerful and the
rich—why the poor and despised classes have constantly gained rights
and privileges against the will and protest of the mignty. Such re-
forms have always implied the restriction of the power of the ruling
forces; such extension of privileges to the people has always meant the
limiting of the immunities of the upper classes. How, then, were these
tilings possible? Reform movements begin in weakness and ridicule;
the submerged masses are always lacking in organization and leader-
ship.
The success and strength of a just cause lie In the fact that those
who fight it are weakened and dispirited by the consciousness that they
are fighting against righteousness. Hence the finest and strongest souls
surrender first, then disintegration in the ranks follows faster and faster
till all yield. Thus doth conscience make cowards of us all, and God's
three hundred, prevail over the mighty, though the one have only pitch-
ers, lights and trumpets to fight against the others’ swords and spears
and shields.
We desire to close this discussion by a summing up of the good that
the Negro offers in the problems before us, and the burdens he lays
upon us, as well. The following things belong to! the credit side of the
account:
His great physical endurance.
His cheerful nature, rising above every circumstance.
His lack of vindictiveness.
His love of his white neighbor.
His love of country.
His desire for the respect of others.
His self-respect, as shown in his good opinion of himself.
His confidence in his own future.
His acquisitiveness, as shown in what he has already acquired in
property against great, odds.
His growing indications of social efficiency, as shown in the increas-
ing organizations, church and secular, he is successfully conducting.
His deep religious nature and wealth of emotion.
His power of assimilation and adaptability, making him the only
one of the so-called inferior races that has ever failed to dwindle and
die in the face of our civilization.
The following are the burdens he lays upon us:
His ignorance.
His low average of morality.
22 FORTUNE-TELLING IN HISTORY