Ethiopia and Sudan Relation

During the last 26 years the exports of Sudan to Ethiopia have increased at an annualized rate of
5.45%, from $1.11M in 1995 to $4.43M in 2021

. In 2021, Sudan did not export any services to Ethiopia. Comparison In 2021,
Ethiopia ranked 99 in the Economic Complexity Index (ECI -0.8), and 126 in total
exports ($4.41B).

Sudan-Ethiopia relations

Ethiopia Sudan

Ethiopia–Sudan relations date back to antiquity.[1] One of Ethiopia's principal trade routes ran
west to Sudan and then to Egypt and the Mediterranean.[1] Muslim merchants from Sudan have
been an important part of Ethiopia's trade for many centuries.[1]

History[edit]
Relations between Ethiopia and Sudan have not always been cordial. [1] Military conflict broke
out between Ethiopians and Sudanese in the 1850s. [1] Sudanese Mahdists, or dervishes as they
also were called, then advanced into Ethiopia in 1885, resulting in a series of battles
between Sudanese Muslims and Ethiopian Christians over the next four years.[1]
Relations improved during the twentieth century. [1] Emperor Haile Selassie, who had been in
exile during the 1936–41 Italian occupation of Ethiopia, returned with the help of Ethiopian,
British, and Sudanese forces from Sudan.[1] Relations became tense again in the late 1950s as
Ethiopia supported the South Sudanese Anya Nya rebels in their battle against Khartoum.
[1]
Selassie, however, helped broker the 1972 Addis Ababa Agreement that ended the first civil
war between North and South.[1]
Ethiopia's military government under Mengistu Haile Mariam (1974–91) strongly supported
the SPLM/A against the government in Khartoum.[1] The successor Tigray-dominated
government, when it operated as a rebel movement, often took refuge in Sudan during its
struggle to overthrow Mengistu.[1] After taking power in 1991, it established cordial relations
with Khartoum.[1] This era of cooperation faded quickly as Islamic militants in Sudan tried to
export their ideas to neighboring countries, including Ethiopia. [1] Sudan's relations with Ethiopia
reached a low in 1995 following Sudanese complicity in the attempted assassination of Egyptian
president Hosni Mubarak as he was visiting Addis Ababa.[1] The assassination incident and its
aftermath was used by both Egypt and Ethiopia to seize lands in Sudan in 1995 (Halaib
triangle on the border with Egypt and al-Fashaga on the border with Ethiopia respectively).[2]
Concurrently, at the urging of the United States, Ethiopia and Eritrea joined Uganda in the so-
called Front Line States strategy, which was designed to put military pressure on Khartoum. [1] In
1997 Ethiopian forces joined the SPLA in a cross-border attack that resulted in the capture of the
border town of Kurmuk and a second small town in Sudan's Blue Nile State.[1]
Ethiopia normalized relations with Sudan by the end of 1998.[1]
As of 2011, good relations between Sudan and Ethiopia continued in spite of Sudan's improved
ties with Eritrea.[1] Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir visited Addis Ababa twice in 2001.
[1]
During a visit to Khartoum in 2002, Ethiopia's Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi, hailed
Ethiopian–Sudanese ties.[1] The two countries agreed to cancel entry visas and fees on
traded commodities, and they stepped up plans to increase trade. [1] Ethiopia began early in 2003
to import oil from Sudan.[1] By 2009 Sudan supplied 80 percent of Ethiopia's demand for oil.
[1]
The two nations signed an agreement ending a dispute involving their 1,600-kilometer border,
and landlocked Ethiopia made plans to make greater use of Port Sudan as a transshipment point.
[1]
Ethiopia, Sudan, and Yemen formed a regional group early in 2003 that they said was
designed to “combat terrorism” in the Horn of Africa.[1] In May 2010, Meles attended the
swearing-in ceremony in Khartoum for al-Bashir following his election.[1]
Bilateral relations among countries in the Horn of Africa tended to be fickle. [1] However,
Ethiopia and Sudan continued to make progress on settling border issues.[1] The Ethiopian prime
minister and Sudanese president inaugurated a major new road link between Ethiopia and Sudan
at the end of 2007.[1] There were frequent subsequent exchange visits by Ethiopian and Sudanese
leaders.[1] Ethiopia remained wary, however, of any effort by Sudan to return to a policy
supporting Islamist militancy in the region.[1] Although Ethiopia preferred a united Sudan, it
shored up its relations with South Sudan on the assumption that it would opt for secession.
[1]
Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea were periodic recipients of refugees from the other countries,
another potential cause of friction. [1] Agreement on usage of Nile River water reemerged as an
important issue between Addis Ababa and Khartoum, while Asmara supported the Sudanese
position as another way to irritate Ethiopia. [1] Ethiopia desired a revision of the 1959 water-
sharing agreement that involved only Egypt and Sudan. [1] Although not entirely happy with the
1959 agreement, Sudan wanted to leave the water-sharing provision in place. [1] However, Sudan
had cited its concern over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which was built on the Blue
Nile River in Ethiopia, as it would affect the safety of the Sudanese dams, despite prospects for
development in the region.[3]
Border clashes[edit]
Main article: 2020–21 Ethiopian–Sudanese clashes
On 22 December 2020, Sudan and Ethiopia commenced talks in the Sudanese
capital Khartoum to demarcate their border in Ethiopia's Tigray region. The talks come
following fighting between Sudanese Army[4] and Ethiopian Shifta forces [5] on farmlands in the
border area, as well as following the tens of thousands of Ethiopians who fled into Sudan in
November, as a result of the Tigray conflict.[6]
In January 2021, tensions again spiked as Sudan accused Ethiopia of escalating the border
conflict around valuable farmland in the Tigray border region. [7] These accusations come in light
of Ethiopia's decision to fill the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam by July 2021, a move which
Sudan claims was taken unilaterally, and which could endanger Sudan's own water systems.[8]
On Saturday 27 November 2021, six Sudanese soldiers were killed in an attack by Ethiopian
forces on a Sudanese army post near the border between the countries, Sudanese military sources
told Reuters. Sudan's army said in an earlier statement on Facebook that “groups of the Ethiopian
army and militias attacked its forces in Al-Fashaga Al-sughra, which resulted in deaths … our
forces valiantly repelled the attack and inflicted heavy losses in lives and equipment on the
attackers.”[9]

References[edit]

1. ^ Jump up to:a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak Shinn, David H.

(2015). "Ethiopia and Eritrea" (PDF). In Berry, LaVerle (ed.). Sudan: a country
study (5th ed.). Washington, D.C.: Federal Research Division, Library of Congress.
pp. 280–282. ISBN 978-0-8444-0750-0. This article incorporates text from this
source, which is in the public domain. Though published in 2015, this work covers events
in the whole of Sudan (including present-day South Sudan) until the 2011 secession of
South Sudan.
2. ^ "Sudan and Ethiopia's dispute in fertile border area threatens regional
stability". Middle East Eye. 2021-07-02. Retrieved 6 August 2021.
3. ^ "The controversy over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam". brookings.edu. 5
August 2020.
4. ^ "Sudan condemns Ethiopia's militias aggression against Quraysha locality". Daily
News Egypt. January 12, 2021. Retrieved January 17, 2021.
5. ^ Samir, Mohamed (December 16, 2020). "Sudan says troops killed by Ethiopian forces
in cross-border attack". Daily News Egypt. Retrieved January 17, 2021.
6. ^ "Sudan, Ethiopia hold border talks; area near Tigray contested". Al Jazeera.
December 22, 2020. Retrieved December 22, 2020.
7. ^ "Sudan warns Ethiopia against provoking a war that threatens regional
stability". Arab News. 16 Feb 2021.
8. ^ Abdelaziz, Khalid (6 Feb 2021). "Filling Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam in July threatens
Sudan's security - minister". Reuters.
9. ^ "Six Sudanese soldiers killed in Ethiopian attack, Sudan military says | National Post".
 Sudan's economic ties with
Ethiopia are deepening
EVENT
In mid-July Ethiopian media reported that Sudan had become the second-biggest foreign
investor in Ethiopia, after China.

ANALYSIS
Figures for Sudanese investment in Ethiopia appear to be only rough estimations. For
example, the head of the Sudanese Investors Society in Addis Ababa has said that Sudanese
capital investment in Ethiopia totals US$2.4bn, while the Ethiopian Ministry of Industry has
said that some 800 Sudanese companies currently operate in Ethiopia. However, no details
behind these figures have been reported. In contrast, the Central Bank of Sudan's own trade
statistics indicate that in 2013 Sudan's exports to Ethiopia totalled US$51.3m (compared
with US$96.4m for exports to Egypt), and that imports amounted to just US$29.9m
(compared with US$743m of imports from Egypt).

Whatever the exact extent of Sudanese investment, there is little doubt that Ethiopia is an
important economic partner for Sudan. As the most populous country in the Horn of Africa,
and the closest neighbour to some of the most developed parts of Sudan (in particular,
Khartoum, Gezira and Gedaref states), Ethiopia offers business and trade opportunities that
Sudan can ill afford to ignore. One example of the deepening ties between the two countries
is the recent start of electricity exports from Ethiopia to Sudan. In late 2013 a 296-km
electricity transmission connection was inaugurated between Metema, near the border in
Ethiopia, and Gedaref in Sudan. The transmission line was built with the help of a US$41m
loan from the World Bank and enables Ethiopia to export up to 100 mw of electricity to
Sudan. Conversely, Sudan exports fuel to Ethiopia.

The economic benefits of good relations have long encouraged the Sudanese government to
be pragmatic about hydroelectric projects in Ethiopia. This is in contrast with Egypt, which
remains openly wary or critical of Ethiopia's hydroelectric schemes and efforts to draw up a
new charter for Nile Basin countries' use of the Nile waters. With Ethiopia planning to
increase its electricity generation through schemes such as the Renaissance Dam, on the
Blue Nile, Sudan can anticipate importing more electricity from Ethiopia in the future. This
has even prompted suggestions that one day Sudan might sell electricity on to Egypt and
Eritrea.

Impact on the forecast

 Sudan will maintain cordial relations with Ethiopia, for the sake of both economic and
political benefits. We will not alter our forecast.

E T H I O P I A - S U D A N In 2021, Ethiopia exported $22.4M to Sudan. The main

products that Ethiopia exported to Sudan are Coffee ($17M), Dried Legumes ($2.08M),
and Wood Fiberboard ($1.11M). During the last 26 years the exports of Ethiopia to Sudan have
increased at an annualized rate of 9.02%, from $2.38M in 1995 to $22.4M in 2021.
In 2021, Ethiopia did not export any services to Sudan.

S U D A N - E T H I O P I A In 2021, Sudan exported $4.43M to Ethiopia. The main

products that Sudan exported to Ethiopia were Onions ($1.44M), Insect Resins ($1.15M),
and Seed Oils ($907k). During the last 26 years the exports of Sudan to Ethiopia have increased
at an annualized rate of 5.45%, from $1.11M in 1995 to $4.43M in 2021.
In 2021, Sudan did not export any services to Ethiopia.

C O M P A R I S O N In 2021, Ethiopia ranked 99 in the Economic Complexity Index (ECI -

0.8), and 126 in total exports ($4.41B). That same year, Sudan ranked 120 in the Economic
Complexity Index (ECI -1.33), and 116 in total exports ($5.44B).

GDP Annual Growth Rate | Africa

Ser. No Country Last Previous Reference
C1 Afghanistan (20.70) (2.40) 21-Dec
C2 Armenia 12.80 14.80 22-Dec
C3 Azerbaijan 4.60 5.70 22-Sep
C4 Bahrain 4.10 4.20 22-Dec
C5 Bangladesh 7.25 5.47 22-Dec
C6 Bhutan 4.10 (10.00) 21-Dec
C7 Brunei (1.60) 1.90 22-Dec
C8 Cambodia 5.30 3.00 22-Dec
C9 China 4.50 2.90 23-Mar
C10 East Timor 2.90 (6.80) 21-Dec
C11 Georgia 9.70 9.80 22-Dec
C12 Hong Kong (4.20) (4.60) 22-Dec
C13 India 4.40 6.30 22-Dec
C14 Indonesia 5.01 5.73 22-Dec
C15 Iran 3.60 (5.70) 22-Sep
C16 Iraq 3.60 (12.00) 21-Dec
C17 Israel 2.53 5.80 22-Dec
C18 Japan 0.40 1.50 22-Dec
C19 Jordan 2.00 2.60 22-Dec
C20 Kazakhstan 3.30 3.00 22-Dec
C21 Kuwait 1.30 (11.20) 21-Dec
Ser. No Country Last Previous Reference
C22 Kyrgyzstan 4.60 7.02 23-Mar
C23 Laos 3.50 3.30 21-Dec
C24 Lebanon (7.00) (20.00) 21-Dec
C25 Macau (23.40) (32.30) 22-Dec
C26 Malaysia 7.00 14.20 22-Dec
C27 Maldives 10.50 27.00 22-Sep
C28 Mongolia 4.70 3.70 22-Dec
C29 Myanmar (18.00) 3.20 21-Dec
C30 Nepal 5.80 4.25 21-Dec
C31 North Korea (0.10) (4.50) 21-Dec
C32 Oman 2.10 (6.30) 21-Dec
C33 Pakistan 5.97 5.74 22-Dec
C34 Palestine 2.00 5.00 22-Dec
C35 Philippines 7.20 7.60 22-Dec
C36 Qatar 8.00 4.30 22-Dec
C37 Saudi Arabia 5.50 8.70 22-Dec
C38 Singapore 0.10 2.10 23-Mar
C39 South Korea 0.80 1.30 23-Mar
C40 Sri Lanka (12.40) (11.80) 22-Dec
C41 Syria (3.90) 1.20 20-Dec
C42 Taiwan (3.02) (0.41) 23-Mar
C43 Tajikistan 7.80 7.40 22-Sep
C44 Thailand 1.40 4.60 22-Dec
C45 Turkmenistan 6.20 5.90 21-Dec
C46 United Arab Emirates 8.50 8.40 22-Jun
C47 Uzbekistan 5.70 5.80 22-Dec
C48 Vietnam 3.32 5.92 23-Mar
C49 Yemen (2.00) (0.50) 21-Dec