Sustainability and The Transition Challenge CH 1
Sustainability and The Transition Challenge CH 1
Dirk Schoenmaker
Willem Schramade
January 2019
Abstract
Finance is widely seen as an obstacle to a better world. Principles of Sustainable Finance
explains how the financial sector can be mobilized to counter this and provides many
examples and tools. Using finance as a means to achieve social goals we can divert the
planet and its economy from its current path to a world that is sustainable for all.
Written for undergraduate, graduate, and executive students of finance, economics,
business, and sustainability, this textbook combines theory, empirical data, and policy to
explain the sustainability challenges for corporate investment. It shows how investors and
bankers can steer funding to sustainable companies and projects without sacrificing return
and thus speed up the transition to a sustainable economy.
Tailored for students, Principles of Sustainable Finance starts each chapter with an overview
and learning objectives to support study. It includes suggestions for further reading,
definitions of key concepts, and extensive use is made of figures, boxes, and tables to
enhance educational goals and clarify concepts.
Overview
Our economic models were developed in the age of resources abundance, when natural
resources were plenty and carbon emissions were limited. No environmental concerns were
factored into these models; only labour and capital. Likewise, financial theory does not
account value to natural resources beyond their near term cash flows. Possibly fatal
depletion of resources is ignored. These models are still widely used, but no longer tenable.
We are now in a transition to a low carbon and more circular economy to overcome
environmental challenges. While an early transition allows for a gradual adjustment of our
production and consumption patterns, a late transition will cause sudden shocks and lead to
stranded assets, which have lost their productive value. Many natural resources companies
are still in denial, irrationally counting on a late and gradual transition.
Mass production in a competitive economic system has led to long working hours,
underpayment and child labour, first in the developed world and later relocated to the
developing world. Social regulations have been increasingly introduced to counter these
practices and to promote decent work and access to education and healthcare. To guide the
transition towards a sustainable and inclusive economy, the United Nations has developed
the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which will require behavioural change.
Sustainable development is an integrated concept with three aspects: economic,
social and environmental. This chapter starts by explaining the sustainability challenges that
society is facing. On the environmental front, climate change, land-use change, biodiversity
loss and depletion of natural resources are destabilising the Earth system. Next, poverty,
hunger and lack of healthcare show that many people live below minimum social standards.
Sustainable development means that current and future generations have the resources
needed, such as food, water, healthcare and energy, without stressing the Earth system
processes.
Why should finance contribute to sustainable development? The main task of the
financial system is to allocate funding to its most productive use. Finance can play a leading
role in allocating investment to sustainable corporates and projects and thus accelerate the
transition to a low carbon and more circular economy. Sustainable finance looks at how
finance (investing and lending) interacts with economic, social, and environmental issues. In
the allocation role finance can assist in making strategic decisions on the trade-offs between
sustainable goals. Moreover, investors can exert influence on the corporates in which they
invest. In this way, long-term investors can steer corporates towards sustainable business
practices. Finally, finance is good at pricing risk for valuation purposes and can thus help
Learning objectives
After you have studied this chapter, you should be able to:
• explain the planet’s social and environmental challenges
• list and understand the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals
• understand the transition of the economic system
• explain the main functions of the financial system and how to apply them to
sustainability
• explain the various stages of sustainable finance
While the Club of Rome was a private initiative, the United Nations (UN) installed the
Brundtland Commission, formally known as the World Commission on Environment and
Development, to unite countries to pursue sustainable development together. Gro Harlem
Brundtland, former Prime Minister of Norway, was chosen as chair due to her strong
background in the sciences and public health. The Brundtland Report (1987) argues that
"...the "environment" is where we live; and "development" is what we all do in attempting
to improve our lot within that environment. The two are inseparable." The report defines
sustainable development as “development that meets the needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”. The Brundtland
report thus reinforces the fact that sustainability is about the future.
Climate change is one the largest environmental risks affecting society. Starting at
the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international environmental treaty to ‘stabilise greenhouse
gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system’. The parties to the convention have
met annually from 1995 in Conferences of the Parties (COP) to assess progress in dealing
with climate change. In the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change (COP21), countries
reconfirmed the target of limiting the rise in global average temperatures relative to those in
the pre-industrial world to 2°C (two degrees Celsius), and to pursue efforts to limit the
Oil began to spill from the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform on 20 April 2010, in the
British Petroleum-operated Macondo Prospect in the Gulf of Mexico. An explosion on the
drilling rig killed 11 workers and led to the largest accidental marine oil spill in the history
of the petroleum industry. The US Government estimated the total discharge at 4.9 million
barrels. After several failed efforts to contain the flow, the well was declared sealed on 19
September 2010.
A massive response ensued to protect beaches, wetlands and estuaries from the
spreading oil using skimmer ships, floating booms, controlled burns and oil dispersant. Oil
clean-up crews worked on 55 miles of the Louisiana shoreline until 2013. Oil was found as
far from the Deepwater Horizon site as the waters off the Florida Panhandle and Tampa
Bay, where the oil and dispersant mixture was embedded in the sand. The months-long
spill, along with adverse effects from the response and clean-up activities, caused
extensive damage to marine and wildlife habitats and the fishing and tourism industries.
Numerous investigations explored the causes of the explosion and record-breaking
spill. Notably, the US government's September 2011 report pointed to defective cement
on the well, laying the fault mostly with BP, but also rig operator Transocean and
contractor Halliburton. Earlier in 2011, a National Commission (2011) likewise blamed BP
and its partners for a series of cost-cutting decisions and an inadequate safety system, but
also concluded that the spill resulted from "systemic" root causes and that without
"significant reform in both industry practices and government policies, might well recur".
The Rana Plaza collapse was a disastrous structural failure of an eight-storey commercial
building on 24 April 2013 in Bangladesh. The collapse of the building caused 1,129 deaths,
while approximately 2,500 injured people were rescued alive from the building. It is
considered the deadliest garment factory accident in history and the deadliest accidental
structural failure in modern human history.
The building contained clothing factories, a bank, apartments, and several shops.
The shops and the bank on the lower floors were immediately closed after cracks were
discovered in the building. The building's owners ignored warnings to evacuate the
building after cracks in the structure appeared the day before the collapse. Garment
workers, earning €38 a month, were ordered to return the following day, and the building
collapsed during the morning rush-hour.
The factories manufactured clothing for brands including Benetton, Bonmarché,
the Children's Place, El Corte Inglés, Joe Fresh, Monsoon Accessorize, Mango, Matalan,
Primark and Walmart.
Environmental challenges
The aim is to keep the planet liveable for current and future generations. There is increasing
evidence that human activities are affecting the Earth system, threatening the planet’s
future liveability. The planetary boundaries framework of Steffen et al. (2015) defines a safe
operating space for humanity within the boundaries of nine productive ecological capacities
of the planet. The framework is based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate
the stability of the Earth system on a planetary scale. The green zone in Figure 1.2 is the safe
operating space, yellow represents the zone of uncertainty (increasing risk) and red indicates
the zone of high risk. Table 1.1 specifies the control variables and quantifies the ecological
ceilings.
Applying the precautionary principle, the planetary boundary itself lies at the
intersection of the green and yellow zones. To illustrate how the framework works, we look
at the control variable for climate change, the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse
gases. The zone of uncertainty ranges from 350 to 450 parts per million (ppm) of carbon
dioxide. We crossed the planetary boundary of 350 ppm in 1995, with a level of 399 ppm in
2015 and adding at a rate of around 3 ppm every year. The upper limit of 450 ppm is
consistent with the goal (at a fair chance of 66 per cent) to limit global warming to 2° Celsius
above the pre-industrial level and lies at the intersection of the yellow and red zones.
Another example in the yellow zone of increasing risk is land-system change. The
control variable is the area of forested land as a proportion of forest-covered land prior to
The current linear production and consumption system is based on extraction of raw
materials (take), processing into products (make), consumption (use) and disposal (waste).
Traditional business models centred on a linear system assume the ongoing availability of
unlimited and cheap natural resources. This is increasingly risky because non-renewable
resources, such as fossil fuels, minerals and metals, are increasingly under pressure, while
potentially renewable resources, such as forests, rivers and prairies, are declining in their
extent and regenerative capacity.
Moreover, the use of fossil fuels in the linear production and consumption system
overburdens the Earth system as natural sink (absorbing pollution). Baseline scenarios (i.e.
those without mitigation) for climate change result in global warming in 2100 from 3.7° to
4.8° Celsius compared to the pre-industrial level (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2014). Figure 11.6 in Chapter 11 depicts this high emission scenario.
With this linear economic system, we are crossing planetary boundaries beyond
which human activities might destabilise the Earth system. In particular, the planetary
boundaries of climate change, land-system change (deforestation and land erosion),
biodiversity loss (terrestrial and marine) and biochemical flows (nitrogen and phosphorus,
mainly because of intensive agricultural practices) have been crossed (see Figure 1.2). A
timely transition towards an economy based on sustainable production and consumption,
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Figure 1.3: The Doughnut: the safe and just space for humanity
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Illustrative indicator
Dimension % Year
(percent of global population unless otherwise stated)
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Economic goals
• Goal 8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and
productive employment and decent work for all
• Goal 9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialisation
and foster innovation
• Goal 10. Reduce inequality within and among countries
• Goal 12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns
Societal goals
• Goal 1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere
• Goal 2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote
sustainable agriculture
• Goal 3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
• Goal 4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning
opportunities for all
• Goal 5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls
• Goal 7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all
• Goal 11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable
• Goal 16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide
access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all
levels
Environmental goals
• Goal 6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all
• Goal 13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
• Goal 14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for
sustainable development
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Overall goal
• Goal 17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalise the Global Partnership
for Sustainable Development
Global strategy
The UN SDGs is the global strategy of the governments under the auspices of the United
Nations and provides direction towards (future) government polices, like regulation and
taxation of environmental and social challenges. The global strategy is boosted by
technological change (e.g. the development of solar and wind energy and electric cars at
decreasing cost), which supplements government policies (e.g. carbon pricing). Some
companies are preparing for this transition (future makers) and are part of the solution
(Mercer, 2015). Other companies are waiting for the transition to unfold before acting
(future takers). A final category of companies is unaware of this transition and continues
business as usual. They are part of the problem.
We, as authors, attach a positive probability to the scenario that the SDGs are largely
met. Our observation is based on the success of the earlier Millennium Development Goals
in reducing poverty, hunger and child death rates in Southeast Asia and Latin America, but
less so in Africa. Of course, opinions can, and do, differ about the probability that the
transition towards a sustainable economy will largely succeed. But the status quo scenario,
which assumes no transition, is highly implausible. While the pathway and the speed of the
transition are uncertain and may even be erratic with failures along the way, the sustainable
development agenda gives direction to thinking about the future. This book is about the role
finance (investors and lenders) can play in shaping this future and making production and
consumption more sustainable.
The UN SDGs address challenges at the level of the economy, society and the
environment (or biosphere). Figure 1.4 illustrates the three levels and the ranking between
them. A liveable planet is a precondition or foundation for humankind to thrive. Next, we
need a cohesive and inclusive society to organise production and consumption in order to
ensure enduring prosperity for all. In their seminal book Why nations fail, Acemoglu and
Robinson (2012) show that political institutions that promote inclusiveness generate
prosperity. Inclusiveness allows everyone to participate in economic opportunities. Reducing
social inequalities is thus an important goal (goal 10 above). Next, there can be resource
conflicts: unequal communities may disagree over how to share and finance public goods.
These conflicts, in turn, break social ties and undermine the formation of trust and social
cohesion (Barone and Mocetti, 2016).
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Gladwin, Kennelly and Krause (1995) define five principles of sustainable development:
1. Comprehensiveness: the concept of sustainable development is holistic or all-
embracing in terms of space, time and component parts. Sustainability embraces
both environmental and human systems, both nearby and far-away, in both the
present and the future;
2. Connectivity: sustainability demands an understanding of the world’s challenges
as systemically interconnected and interdependent;
3. Equity: a fair distribution of resources and property rights, both within and
between current and future generations;
4. Prudence: keeping life-supporting ecosystems and interrelated socio-economic
systems resilient, avoiding irreversible actions, and keeping the scale and impact
of human activities within regenerative and carrying capacities;
5. Security: sustainable development aims at ensuring a safe, healthy, high quality
of life for current and future generations.
System perspective
While it is tempting to start working on partial solutions at each level, the environmental,
societal and economic challenges are interlinked. It is important to embrace an integrated
social-ecological system perspective (Norström et al., 2014). Such an integrated system
perspective highlights the dynamics that such systems entail, including the role of
ecosystems in sustaining human wellbeing, cross-system interactions, and uncertain
thresholds.
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The first three functions are particularly relevant for sustainable finance. The allocation of
funding to its most productive use is a key role of finance. Finance is therefore well
positioned to assist in making strategic decisions on the trade-offs between sustainable
goals. While broader considerations are guiding an organisation’s strategy on sustainability,
funding is a requirement for reaching sustainable goals.
Finance plays this role at different levels. In the financial sector, banks, for example,
define their lending strategy regarding which sectors and projects are eligible for lending and
which not. Similarly, investment funds set their investment strategy, which directs in which
assets the fund invests and in which assets not. The financial sector can thus play a leading
role in the transition to a low-carbon and more circular economy. If the financial sector
chooses to finance sustainable companies and projects, they can accelerate the transition.
In terms of monitoring their investments, investors can also influence the companies
in which they invest. Investors thus have a powerful role in controlling and directing
corporate boards. The governance role also involves balancing the many interests of a
corporation’s stakeholders. In Section 1.4, we review the progressive thinking about how
interests should be balanced, including the interests of the environment and society. A rising
trend in sustainable investment is engagement with companies in the hope of reducing the
risk of adverse events occurring in those companies.
Finance is good at pricing the risk of future cash flows for valuation purposes. As
there is inherent uncertainty about environmental issues (e.g. exactly how rising carbon
emissions will affect the climate, and the timing and shape of climate mitigation policies),
risk management can help to deal with these uncertainties. Scenario analysis is increasingly
used to assess the risk and valuation under different scenarios (e.g. climate scenarios; see
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The concept of sustainable finance has evolved as part of the broader notion of business
sustainability over the last decades (see Chapter 5). Table 1.3 shows the typology for
sustainable finance on four aspects: i) the value created; ii) the ranking of the three factors;
iii) the optimisation method; and iv) the horizon. The evolution highlights the broadening
from shareholder value to stakeholder value or triple bottom line: people, planet, profit. The
final stage looks at the creation of common good value (see also Tirole, 2017). To avoid the
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Sustainable
Ranking of
Finance Value created Optimisation Horizon
factors
Typology
Refined Max F
Sustainable Finance 1.0 F >> S and E Short term
shareholder value subject to S and E
Stakeholder value
Sustainable Finance 2.0 I=F+S+E Optimise I Medium term
(triple bottom line)
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Investors optimise the financial value 𝐹𝑉 of their portfolio by increasing profits and
decreasing their risk (i.e. the variability of profits), while avoiding excessive negative
social and environmental impact by setting a minimum level 𝑆𝐸𝑉 !"# . The objective
function is given by:
! !
max 𝐹𝑉 = 𝐹( profits, risk ) 𝑠𝑢𝑏𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑡𝑜 𝐹profits > 0, 𝐹risk < 0, 𝑆𝐸𝑉 ≥ 𝑆𝐸𝑉 !"# (1.1)
Where 𝐹𝑉 = financial value = expected current and discounted future profits, and 𝑆𝐸𝑉 =
!
social and environmental value. 𝐹profits is the partial derivative of 𝐹 with respect to the
!
first term, and 𝐹risk with respect to the second term. This optimisation can be used by
investors in a mean-variance framework to optimise their portfolio and by banks and
corporates in a net present value framework to decide on financing new projects.
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!
𝑆𝐸𝑉!!! ≥ 𝑆𝐸𝑉!! (1.2)
!
See Box 1.3 for the explanation of the variables. 𝑆𝐸𝑉!!! = next period social and
environmental impact. In line with the integrated value methodology, not only profits but
also risk is assessed in an integrated way (i.e. integrated across the three values), which
includes the covariance between the profits.
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See Box 1.3 and 1.4 for the explanation of the variables. The financial viability or
!"#
minimum financial value can be presented as follows: 𝐹𝑉!!! = !1 + 𝑟 !"#$ ! 𝐹𝑉!!"# ,
where 𝑟 !"#$ ≥ 0 is a fair financial return for one period.
In banking, the Global Alliance for Banking on Values (2016) compares a group of 25
sustainable banks with the group of 30 global systemically important banks (selected and
published by the Financial Stability Board). The sustainable banks maintained their financial
return through the global financial crisis with a return on equity fluctuating between 4 and
10 per cent over the 2006-2015 period. At the same time, the median return on equity for
the global banks fluctuated between 0 and 15 per cent over the same period (see ECB (2015)
for a similar result for the euro-area banks). While the average return on equity for the
group of sustainable banks is slightly lower at 8.3 per cent compared to 8.7 per cent for the
global banks over the 2006-2015 period, the variance of the return on equity is lower for the
sustainable banks at a standard deviation of 4.9 per cent compared to 7.7 per cent for the
global banks. This smaller variance can be explained by two factors: stable return on assets
(around 0.5 to 0.7 per cent for sustainable banks versus 0.2 to 0.8 per cent for the global
banks over the 2006-2015 period) and a higher capital ratio1 (1 to 1.5 per cent higher for
sustainable banks). High leverage with more debt and less equity - which is equivalent to a
lower capital ratio - contributes to variability in banks’ return on equity and thus increases
bank risk, as found in the case of the global banks.
Ortiz-de-Mandojana and Bansal (2016) investigate the short and long-term benefits
of organisational resilience through sustainable business practices. In the long run, a higher
survival rate of sustainable organisations is expected, as resilience helps companies to avoid
crises and bounce back from shocks. They show that companies that adopt responsible
social and environmental practices, relative to a carefully matched control group, have lower
financial volatility, higher sales growth and higher chances of survival over a 15-year period.
Yet, they do not find any differences in short-term profits. This suggests that there is no
short-term cost to adopting sustainability practices.
1
We refer here to the unweighted capital ratio, also known as the Basel leverage ratio, which is
defined as Tier 1 equity divided by total assets.
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Note: 𝑆𝐸𝑉 !"# = minimum level of social and environmental value; 𝑆𝐸𝑉 !"#$%&' = optimised
integrated value (= privately discounted financial, social and environmental value); and 𝑆𝐸𝑉 !"#$%&' =
optimised social and environmental value.
Source: Schoenmaker (2017)
The first two stages aim to avoid reputation risk, because the public demands a minimum
level of corporate social responsibility and externalities are expected to be priced-in at some
stage. The third stage aims to grasp the opportunities of realising social-environmental
impact through investment and lending.
Where are we currently on the social-environmental axis? The majority of firms are
at the Sustainable Finance 1.0 level, putting financial value first. About 30 to 40 per cent of
financial institutions and 20 to 30 per cent of corporates adopt sustainable principles in their
investment and business practices (see Table 4.3 in Chapter 4). But these firms are only
partly (fraction 𝛼) maximising integrated value. They are somewhere between Sustainable
Finance 1.0 and 2.0, which can be expressed as max 𝑉 = 1 − 𝛼 𝐹𝑉 + 𝛼 𝐼𝑉 = 𝐹𝑉 +
𝛼 (𝑆𝑉 + 𝐸𝑉), in which V stands for the overall value maximised by the firm, FV for financial
value, IV for integrated value (IV = FV + SV + EV), SV for social value and EV for
environmental value.
A fair approximation is that financial value is dominant and social-environmental
value is incorporated for about 10 per cent (α = 0.1). This implies that we are just above, but
still quite close to, 𝑆𝐸𝑉 !"# . To increase the social-environmental value, the real challenge is
to switch from Sustainable Finance 1.0 to Sustainable Finance 2.0. This is similar to the
dichotomy of Hart and Zingales (2017), who distinguish between shareholder value (SF 1.0)
and shareholder welfare (SF 2.0). Box 3.2 in Chapter 3 reports on a recent battle between
the shareholder model (SF 1.0) and the stakeholder model (SF 2.0). Finally, the group of
financial institutions adopting Sustainable Finance 3.0 is tiny at less than 1 per cent (Table
4.3).
The framework is dynamic. Non-governmental organisations (NGOs) put pressure on
investors to raise the minimum level by expanding the number of exclusions. The
introduction of government regulation or taxation on social and environmental externalities
can cause an upward shift of the social-environmental component in the integrated value
calculation.
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Suggested reading
Gladwin, T., J. Kennelly and T. Krause (1995), ‘Shifting paradigms for sustainable
development: Implications for management theory and research’, Academy of
Management Review, 20(4): 874-907.
Hart, O. and L. Zingales (2017), ‘Companies Should Maximize Shareholder Welfare Not
Market Value’, CEPR Discussion Paper, DP12186.
Levine, R. (2005), ‘Finance and Growth: Theory, Mechanisms and Evidence’, in: P. Aghion
and S. N. Durlauf (eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 865-923.
Raworth, K. (2017), Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century
Economist, Random House Business Books, London.
Steffen, W., et al. (2015), ‘Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing
planet’, Science 347(6223): 736-47.
Tirole, J. (2017), Economics for the Common Good, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
United Nations (2015), ‘UN Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs) - Transforming our
world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development’, A/RES/70/1, New York.
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