Log-Normal Distribution - Wikipedia
Log-Normal Distribution - Wikipedia
Log-normal distribution
In probability theory, a log-normal
Log-normal distribution
(or lognormal) distribution is a
continuous probability distribution of Probability density function
a random variable whose logarithm is
normally distributed. Thus, if the
random variable X is log-normally
distributed, then Y = ln(X) has a
normal distribution.[2][3]
Equivalently, if Y has a normal
distribution, then the exponential
function of Y, X = exp(Y) , has a log-
normal distribution. A random
variable which is log-normally
distributed takes only positive real
values. It is a convenient and useful
model for measurements in exact and
engineering sciences, as well as Identical parameter but differing parameters
medicine, economics and other topics
Cumulative distribution function
(e.g., energies, concentrations,
lengths, prices of financial
instruments, and other metrics).
CDF
Quantile
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one uses
and
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where is the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution (i.e.,
).
Multivariate log-normal
If is a multivariate normal distribution, then has a multivariate log-
normal distribution.[6][7] The exponential is applied elementwise to the random vector . The
mean of is
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Since the multivariate log-normal distribution is not widely used, the rest of this entry only deals
with the univariate distribution.
This can be derived by letting within the integral. However, the log-normal
distribution is not determined by its moments. [8] This implies that it cannot have a defined
moment generating function in a neighborhood of zero.[9] Indeed, the expected value is not
defined for any positive value of the argument , since the defining integral diverges.
The characteristic function is defined for real values of t, but is not defined for any complex
value of t that has a negative imaginary part, and hence the characteristic function is not analytic at
the origin. Consequently, the characteristic function of the log-normal distribution cannot be
represented as an infinite convergent series.[10] In particular, its Taylor formal series diverges:
A closed-form formula for the characteristic function with in the domain of convergence is
not known. A relatively simple approximating formula is available in closed form, and is given
by[14]
where is the Lambert W function. This approximation is derived via an asymptotic method, but
it stays sharp all over the domain of convergence of .
Properties
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Arithmetic moments
For any real or complex number n, the n-th moment of a log-normally distributed variable X is
given by[4]
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Specifically, the arithmetic mean, expected square, arithmetic variance, and arithmetic standard
deviation of a log-normally distributed variable X are respectively given by:[2]
This estimate is sometimes referred to as the "geometric CV" (GCV),[19][20] due to its use of the
geometric variance. Contrary to the arithmetic standard deviation, the arithmetic coefficient of
variation is independent of the arithmetic mean.
The parameters μ and σ can be obtained, if the arithmetic mean and the arithmetic variance are
known:
1 2 2
A probability distribution is not uniquely determined by the moments E[Xn] = enμ + 2 n σ for
n ≥ 1. That is, there exist other distributions with the same set of moments.[4] In fact, there is a
whole family of distributions with the same moments as the log-normal distribution.
Since the log-transformed variable has a normal distribution, and quantiles are
preserved under monotonic transformations, the quantiles of are
Partial expectation
The partial expectation of a random variable with
respect to a threshold is defined as
where is the normal cumulative distribution function. The derivation of the formula is provided
in the Talk page. The partial expectation formula has applications in insurance and economics, it is
used in solving the partial differential equation leading to the Black–Scholes formula.
Conditional expectation
The conditional expectation of a log-normal random variable —with respect to a threshold —is
its partial expectation divided by the cumulative probability of being in that range:
Alternative parameterizations
In addition to the characterization by or , here are multiple ways how the log-normal
distribution can be parameterized. ProbOnto, the knowledge base and ontology of probability
distributions[22][23] lists seven such forms:
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LogNormal3(m,σ) with median, m, on the natural scale and standard deviation, σ, on the log-
scale[24]
LogNormal4(m,cv) with median, m, and coefficient of variation, cv, both on the natural scale
LogNormal6(m,σg) with median, m, and geometric standard deviation, σg, both on the natural
scale[26]
LogNormal7(μN,σN) with mean, μN, and standard deviation, σN, both on the natural scale[27]
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All remaining re-parameterisation formulas can be found in the specification document on the
project website.[30]
variables, then
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In fact, the random variables do not have to be identically distributed. It is enough for the
distributions of to all have finite variance and satisfy the other conditions of any of the
many variants of the central limit theorem.
Other
A set of data that arises from the log-normal distribution has a symmetric Lorenz curve (see also
Lorenz asymmetry coefficient).[31]
The harmonic , geometric and arithmetic means of this distribution are related;[32] such
relation is given by
Log-normal distributions are infinitely divisible,[33] but they are not stable distributions, which can
be easily drawn from.[34]
Related distributions
If is a normal distribution, then
If is distributed log-normally, then is a normal
random variable.
Let be independent log-normally distributed variables with possibly
varying and parameters, and . The distribution of has no closed-form
expression, but can be reasonably approximated by another log-normal distribution at the
right tail.[35] Its probability density function at the neighborhood of 0 has been characterized[34]
and it does not resemble any log-normal distribution. A commonly used approximation due to
L.F. Fenton (but previously stated by R.I. Wilkinson and mathematically justified by Marlow[36])
is obtained by matching the mean and variance of another log-normal distribution:
In the case that all have the same variance parameter , these formulas simplify to
For a more accurate approximation, one can use the Monte Carlo method to estimate the
cumulative distribution function, the pdf and the right tail.[37][38]
The sum of correlated log-normally distributed random variables can also be approximated by a
log-normal distribution
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Statistical inference
Estimation of parameters
For determining the maximum likelihood estimators of the log-normal distribution parameters μ
and σ, we can use the same procedure as for the normal distribution. Note that
where is the density function of the normal distribution . Therefore, the log-likelihood
function is
Since the first term is constant with regard to μ and σ, both logarithmic likelihood functions, and
, reach their maximum with the same and . Hence, the maximum likelihood estimators are
identical to those for a normal distribution for the observations ,
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For finite n, the estimator for is unbiased, but the one for is biased. As for the normal
distribution, an unbiased estimator for can be obtained by replacing the denominator n by n−1 in
the equation for .
When the individual values are not available, but the sample's mean and standard
deviation s is, then the Method of moments can be used. The corresponding parameters are
determined by the following formulas, obtained from solving the equations for the expectation
and variance for and :
Interval estimates
The most efficient way to obtain interval estimates when analyzing log-normally distributed data
consists of applying the well-known methods based on the normal distribution to logarithmically
transformed data and then to back-transform results if appropriate.
Prediction intervals
A basic example is given by prediction intervals: For the normal distribution, the interval
contains approximately two thirds (68%) of the probability (or of a large sample),
and contain 95%. Therefore, for a log-normal distribution,
contains 95% of the probability. Using estimated parameters, then approximately the same
percentages of the data should be contained in these intervals.
with
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This value can then be used to give some scaling relation between the inflexion point and
maximum point of the log-normal distribution.[42] This relationship is determined by the base of
natural logarithm, , and exhibits some geometrical similarity to the minimal surface
energy principle. These scaling relations are useful for predicting a number of growth processes
(epidemic spreading, droplet splashing, population growth, swirling rate of the bathtub vortex,
distribution of language characters, velocity profile of turbulences, etc.). For example, the log-
normal function with such fits well with the size of secondarily produced droplets during droplet
impact [43] and the spreading of an epidemic disease.[44]
The value is used to provide a probabilistic solution for the Drake equation.[45]
A second justification is based on the observation that fundamental natural laws imply
multiplications and divisions of positive variables. Examples are the simple gravitation law
connecting masses and distance with the resulting force, or the formula for equilibrium
concentrations of chemicals in a solution that connects concentrations of educts and products.
Assuming log-normal distributions of the variables involved leads to consistent models in these
cases.
Specific examples are given in the following subsections.[47] contains a review and table of log-
normal distributions from geology, biology, medicine, food, ecology, and other areas.[48] is a
review article on log-normal distributions in neuroscience, with annotated bibliography.
Human behavior
The length of comments posted in Internet discussion forums follows a log-normal
distribution.[49]
Users' dwell time on online articles (jokes, news etc.) follows a log-normal distribution.[50]
The length of chess games tends to follow a log-normal distribution.[51]
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Onset durations of acoustic comparison stimuli that are matched to a standard stimulus follow
a log-normal distribution.[18]
Chemistry
Particle size distributions and molar mass distributions.
The concentration of rare elements in minerals.[64]
Diameters of crystals in ice cream, oil drops in mayonnaise, pores in cocoa press cake.[47]
Hydrology
In hydrology, the log-normal distribution is used to analyze
extreme values of such variables as monthly and annual
maximum values of daily rainfall and river discharge
volumes.[65]
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The rainfall data are represented by plotting positions as part of a cumulative frequency
analysis.
Technology
In reliability analysis, the log-normal distribution is often used to model times to repair a
maintainable system.[76]
In wireless communication, "the local-mean power expressed in logarithmic values, such as dB
or neper, has a normal (i.e., Gaussian) distribution."[77] Also, the random obstruction of radio
signals due to large buildings and hills, called shadowing, is often modeled as a log-normal
distribution.
Particle size distributions produced by comminution with random impacts, such as in ball
milling.[78]
The file size distribution of publicly available audio and video data files (MIME types) follows a
log-normal distribution over five orders of magnitude.[79]
File sizes of 140 million files on personal computers running the Windows OS, collected in
1999.[80][49]
Sizes of text-based emails (1990s) and multimedia-based emails (2000s).[49]
In computer networks and Internet traffic analysis, log-normal is shown as a good statistical
model to represent the amount of traffic per unit time. This has been shown by applying a
robust statistical approach on a large groups of real Internet traces. In this context, the log-
normal distribution has shown a good performance in two main use cases: (1) predicting the
proportion of time traffic will exceed a given level (for service level agreement or link capacity
estimation) i.e. link dimensioning based on bandwidth provisioning and (2) predicting 95th
percentile pricing.[81]
in physical testing when the test produces a time-to-failure of an item under specified
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See also
Heavy-tailed distribution
Log-distance path loss model
Modified lognormal power-law distribution
Slow fading
Notes
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estimation" (http://uryasev.ams.stonybrook.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Norton2019_CVa
R_bPOE.pdf) (PDF). Annals of Operations Research. Springer. 299 (1–2): 1281–1315.
arXiv:1811.11301 (https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.11301). doi:10.1007/s10479-019-03373-1 (https://
doi.org/10.1007%2Fs10479-019-03373-1). S2CID 254231768 (https://api.semanticscholar.org/
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ms.stonybrook.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Norton2019_CVaR_bPOE.pdf) (PDF) from the
original on 2021-04-18. Retrieved 2023-02-27 – via stonybrook.edu.
2. Weisstein, Eric W. "Log Normal Distribution" (https://mathworld.wolfram.com/LogNormalDistrib
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669.htm). www.itl.nist.gov. U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).
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Further reading
Crow, Edwin L.; Shimizu, Kunio, eds. (1988), Lognormal Distributions, Theory and Applications,
Statistics: Textbooks and Monographs, vol. 88, New York: Marcel Dekker, Inc., pp. xvi+387,
ISBN 978-0-8247-7803-3, MR 0939191 (https://mathscinet.ams.org/mathscinet-getitem?mr=09
39191), Zbl 0644.62014 (https://zbmath.org/?format=complete&q=an:0644.62014)
Aitchison, J. and Brown, J.A.C. (1957) The Lognormal Distribution, Cambridge University
Press.
Limpert, E; Stahel, W; Abbt, M (2001). "Lognormal distributions across the sciences: keys and
clues" (https://doi.org/10.1641%2F0006-3568%282001%29051%5B0341%3ALNDATS%5D2.
0.CO%3B2). BioScience. 51 (5): 341–352. doi:10.1641/0006-
3568(2001)051[0341:LNDATS]2.0.CO;2 (https://doi.org/10.1641%2F0006-3568%282001%290
51%5B0341%3ALNDATS%5D2.0.CO%3B2).
Holgate, P. (1989). "The lognormal characteristic function". Communications in Statistics -
Theory and Methods. 18 (12): 4539–4548. doi:10.1080/03610928908830173 (https://doi.org/1
0.1080%2F03610928908830173).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log-normal_distribution 22/23
19/03/2024, 08:25 Log-normal distribution - Wikipedia
Brooks, Robert; Corson, Jon; Donal, Wales (1994). "The Pricing of Index Options When the
Underlying Assets All Follow a Lognormal Diffusion". Advances in Futures and Options
Research. 7. SSRN 5735 (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5735).
External links
The normal distribution is the log-normal distribution (https://stat.ethz.ch/~stahel/talks/lognorma
l.pdf)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log-normal_distribution 23/23