Session 4

Binomial Theorem on Probability, Poisson Distribution,

Expectation, Multinomial Theorem, Uncountable Uniform
Spaces (Geometrical Problems)

Binomial Theorem \
1
q=
on Probability 10
Let X be the random variable, showing the number of ships
Suppose, a binomial experiment has probability of success reaching safely.
p and that of failure q (i.e., p + q = 1). If E be an event and Then, P (atleast 4 reaching safely) = P ( X = 4 or X = 5)
let X = number of successes i.e., number of times event E
= P ( X = 4 ) + P ( X = 5)
occurs in n trials. Then, the probability of occurrence of
4 5-4 5 5-5
event E exactly r times in n trials is denoted by æ9ö æ1ö æ9ö æ1ö
= 5C 4 ç ÷ ç ÷ + 5C 5 ç ÷ ç ÷
P ( X = r ) or P (r ) and is given by P ( X = r ) è 10 ø è 10 ø è 10 ø è 10 ø

or P (r ) = n C r p r q n -r 5 ´ 94 95 9 4 ´ 14
= + =
= (r + 1) th terms in the expansion of (q + p ) n 10 5
10 5
105
where, r = 0, 1, 2, 3, …, n.
y Example 22. Numbers are selected at random one at
Remark a time, from the numbers 00, 01, 02, …, 99 with
1. The probability of getting atleast k success is replacement. An event E occurs, if and only if the
n
Cr p r qn - r .
product of the two digits of a selected number is 18. If
å
n
P( r ³ k ) =
r =k four numbers are selected, then find the probability that
2. The probability of getting atmost k success is E occurs atleast 3 times.
k Sol. Out of the numbers 00, 01, 02, …, 99, those numbers the
P( 0 £ r £ k ) = å
n
Cr p r qn - r .
product of whose digits is 18 are 29, 36, 63, 92 i.e., only 4.
r =0
4 1 1 24
3. The probability distribution of the random variable X is as p = P (E) = = , q = P (E ) = 1 - =
given below 100 25 25 25
Let X be the random variable, showing the number of times
X 0 1 2 … r … n
E occurs in 4 selections.
n n n- 1 n 2 n- 2 n r n- r
P(X) q C1 pq C2 p q … Cr p q pn
Then, P ( E occurs atleast 3 times) = P ( X = 3 or X = 4)
4. The mean, the variance and the standard deviation of = P ( X = 3) + P ( X = 4 ) = 4C 3 p 3q 1 + 4C 4 p 4q 0
binomial distribution are np, npq, npq. 3 4
æ1ö 24 æ 1 ö
5. Mode of binomial distribution Mode of Binomial = 4 p 3q + p 4 = 4 ´ ç ÷ ´ +ç ÷
distribution is the value of r when P( X = r ) is maximum. è 25 ø 25 è 25 ø
( n + 1) p - 1 £ r £ ( n + 1) p 97
=
390625
y Example 21. If on an average, out of 10 ships, one is
drowned, then what is the probability that out of 5 y Example 23. A man takes a step forward with
ships, atleast 4 reach safely? probability 0.4 and backward with probability 0.6.
Sol. Let p be the probability that a ship reaches safely. Then, find the probability that at the end of eleven
9 steps he is one step away from the starting point.
\ p=
10 Sol. Since, the man is one step away from starting point mean
9 that either
\ q = Probability that a ship is drowned = 1 - p = 1 -
10 (i) man has taken 6 steps forward and 5 steps backward.
 (ii) man has taken 5 steps forward and 6 steps backward. y Example 25. Write probability distribution, when
Taking, movement 1 step forward as success and 1 step three coins are tossed.
backward as failure. Sol. Let X be a random variable denoting the number of heads
\ p = Probability of success = 0.4 occurred, then P ( X = 0) = Probability of occurrence of
and q = Probability of failure = 06
. zero head
1 1 1 1
\ Required probability = P ( X = 6 or X = 5) = P (TTT ) = × × =
2 2 2 8
= P ( X = 6) + P ( X = 5) = 11C 6 p 6q 5 + 11C 5 p 5q 6 P ( X = 1) = Probability of occurrence of one head
= 11C 5 ( p 6q 5 + p 5q 6 ) = P ( HTT ) + P (THT ) + P (TTH )
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3
11 × 10 × 9 × 8 × 7 = × × + × × + × × =
= {(0 × 4 )6 (0 × 6)5 + (0 × 4 )5 (0 × 6)6 } 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 8
1 ×2 ×3 × 4 ×5
P ( X = 2) = Probability of occurrence of two heads
11 × 10 × 9 × 8 × 7
= (0 × 24 )5 = 0 × 37 = P ( HHT ) + P ( HTH ) + P (THH )
1 ×2 ×3 × 4 ×5
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3
Hence, the required probability is 0 ×37 . = × × + × × + × × =
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 8
y Example 24. Find the minimum number of tosses of P ( X = 3) = Probability of occurrence of three heads
a pair of dice, so that the probability of getting the 1 1 1 1
= P ( HHH ) = × × =
sum of the digits on the dice equal to 7 on atleast one 2 2 2 8
toss, is greater than 0.95. (Given, log 10 2 = 0 × 3010, Thus, the probability distribution when three coins are
log 10 3 = 0 × 4771) tossed is as given below
Sol. The sample space, X 0 1 2 3
S = {1, 2, 3, 4 , 5, 6} ´ {1, 2, 3, 4 , 5, 6} P (X ) 1 3 3 1
\ n (S ) = 36 and let E be the event getting the sum of 8 8 8 8
digits on the dice equal to 7, then æ ö
E = {(1, 6), (6, 1), (2, 5), (5, 2), (3, 4 ), ( 4 , 3)} X : ç0 1 2 3 ÷
ç ÷
\ n(E) = 6 another form, ç ÷
p = Probability of getting the sum 7 P( X ) : ç 1 3 3 1 ÷
ç ÷
6 1 1 5 è3 8 8 8ø
p= = \ q =1- p =1- =
36 6 6 6
Q Probability of not throwing the sum 7 in first m trials = q m y Example 26. The mean and variance of a binomial
æ5ö
m variable X are 2 and 1, respectively. Find the
\ P (atleast one 7 in m throws) = 1 - q m = 1 - ç ÷ probability that X takes values greater than 1.
è6ø
m Sol. Given, mean, np = 2 …(i)
æ5ö and variance, npq = 1
According to the question, 1 - ç ÷ > 0 × 95 …(ii)
è6ø 1
m m On dividing Eq. (ii) by Eq. (i), we get q =
æ5ö æ5ö 2
Þ ç ÷ < 1 - 0 × 95 Þ ç ÷ < 005
. 1
è6ø è6ø \ p = 1 -q =
m
2
æ5ö 1 1
Þ ç ÷ < From Eq. (i), n ´ =2 \ n = 4
è6ø 20 2 4
æ1 1ö
Taking logarithm, The binomial distribution is ç + ÷
è2 2ø
Þ m {log10 5 - log10 6} < log10 1 - log10 20
Þ m {1 - log10 2 - log10 2 - log10 3} < 0 - log10 2 - log10 10 Now, P ( X > 1) = P ( X = 2) + P ( X = 3) + P ( X = 4 )
2 2 1 3 4
Þ m {1 - 2 log10 2 - log10 3} < - log10 2 - 1 æ1ö æ1ö æ1ö æ1ö æ1ö
= 4C 2 ç ÷ ç ÷ + 4C 4 ç ÷ ç ÷ + 4C 4 ç ÷
Þ m {1 - 06020
. - 0.4771} < - 03010
. -1 è2ø è2ø è2ø è2ø è2ø
Þ - 0.079m < - 13010
. 6 + 4 + 1 11
= =
1.3010 16 16
Þ m> = 16.44
0.079 Aliter P ( X > 1) = 1 - { P ( X = 0) + P ( X = 1)}
\ m > 16.44 ìï 0
æ1ö æ1ö
4
æ 1 ö æ 1 ö üï
3
æ 1 + 4 ö 11
= 1 - í 4 C 0 ç ÷ ç ÷ + 4C 3 ç ÷ ç ÷ ý = 1 - ç ÷=
Hence, the least number of trials is 17. ïî è2ø è2ø è2øè2ø ï è 16 ø 16
þ
 1
Poisson Distribution P ( A wins at the first trial) =
6
5 5 1
It is the limiting case of binomial distribution under the P ( A wins at the 3rd trials) = × ×
6 6 6
following conditions : 5 5 5 5 1
P ( A wins at the 5th trials) = × × × × and so on.
(i) Number of trails are very large i.e. n ® ¥ 6 6 6 6 6
2 4
(ii) p ® 0 1 æ5ö 1 æ5ö 1
Therefore, P ( A wins) = + ç ÷ + ç ÷ × + K ¥
(iii) nq ® l, a finite quantity (l is called parameter) 6 è6ø 6 è6ø 6
(a) Probability of r success for poisson distribution is 1
6
e -l lr = 6 =
given by P( X = r ) = , r = 0, 1, 2, ... 2
11
r! æ5ö
1- ç ÷
(b) Recurrence formula for poisson distribution is è6ø
l 5 1 æ5ö
3 5
1 æ5ö 1
given by P(r + 1) = P (r ) Similarly, P ( B wins) = × + ç ÷ + ç ÷ + K¥
(r + 1) 6 6 è6ø 6 è6ø 6
5 1
Remark ×
5
= 6 6 2 =
1. For poisson distribution, mean = variance = l = np 11
æ5ö
2. If X and Y are independent poisson variates with parameters 1- ç ÷
l1 and l 2 , then X + Y has poisson distribution with parameter è6ø
l1 + l 2. 6 5
Hence, expectations of A and B are ` ´ 11 and ` ´ 11,
11 11
respectively. i.e. Expectations of A and B are ` 6 and ` 5,
Expectation respectively.

If p be the probability of success of a person in any

venture and m be the sum of money which he will receive
in case of success, the sum of money denoted by pm is
Multinomial Theorem
called his expectation. If a dice has m faces marked 1, 2, 3,…, m and if such n dice
are thrown, then the probability that the sum of the
y Example 27. A random variable X has Poisson’s numbers of the upper faces is equal to r is given by the
distribution with mean 3. Then find the value of (x + x 2 + K + x m )n
coefficient of x r in .
P ( X > 2.5) mn
Sol. P ( X > 2.5) = 1 - P ( X = 0) - P ( X = 1) - P ( X = 2)
lk y Example 29. A person throws two dice, one the
Q P ( X = k ) = e -l × common cube and the other a regular tetrahedron, the
k!
e -l e -l × l1 e -l × l 2
number on the lowest face being taken in the case of
\ P ( X > 2.5) = 1 - - - the tetrahedron, then find the probability that the sum
0! 1! 2!
of the numbers appearing on the dice is 6.
æ l 2ö
= 1 - e -l ç1 + l + ÷ Sol. Let S be the sample space, then
è 2 ø
S = {1, 2, 3, 4 } ´ {1, 2, 3, 4 , 5, 6}
æ 9ö
= 1 - e -3 ç1 + 3 + ÷ (Q l = np = 3) \ n (S ) = 24
è 2ø
17 If E be the event that the sum of the numbers on dice is 6.
=1- 3
2e Then, n ( E ) = Coefficient of x 6 in

y Example 28. A and B throw with one die for a (x1 + x 2 + x 3 + x 4 ) ´ (x1 + x 2 + x 3 + x 4 + x 5 + x 6 )
stake of ` 11 which is to be won by the player who = 1 + 1 + 1 + 1= 4
first throw 6. If A has the first throw, then what n(E) 4 1
\Required probability, P ( E ) = = =
n (S ) 24 6
are their respective expectations?
Sol. Since, A can win the game at the 1st, 3rd, 5th,…, trials.
y Example 30. Five ordinary dice are rolled at random
If p be the probability of success and q be the probability of
fail, then and the sum of the numbers shown on them is 16.
1 5 What is the probability that the numbers shown on
p= and q =
6 6 each is any one from 2, 3, 4 or 5?
Sol. If the integers x 1, x 2 , x 3 , x 4 and x 5 are shown on the Sol. Let A and B arrive at the place of their meeting x minutes
dice, then x 1 + x 2 + x 3 + x 4 + x 5 = 16 and y minutes after 11 noon.
where, 1 £ x i £ 6 (i = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) Y
The number of total solutions of this equation. R B
C
= Coefficient of x 16 in ( x 1 + x 2 + x 3 + x 4 + x 5 + x 6 )5 (0, 60)
Q
= Coefficient of x 16 in x 5 (1 + x + x 2 + x 3 + x 4 + x 5 )5
= Coefficient of x 11 in (1 + x + x 2 + x 3 + x 4 + x 5 )5
ìï æ 1 - x 6 ö 5 üï S
= Coefficient of x 11 in í ç (0, 20)
÷ ý
ïî è 1 - x ø ïþ
X′ X
O P A
(0, 60) (60, 0)
= Coefficient of x 11 in (1 - x 6 )5 (1 - x )-5 Y′
The given condition Þ their meeting is possible only if
= Coefficient of x 11 in
| x - y | £ 20 …(i)
(1 - 5x 6 + K ) (1 + 5C 1x + 6C 2 x 2
+K
OABC is a square, where A º (60, 0) and C º (0, 60)
+ 9C C 5 x 5 + K + 15C 11x 11 + K )
= 15C 11 - 5 ×9 C 5 Considering the equality part of Eq. (i)
15 × 14 × 13 × 12 9 ×8 ×7 ×6 i.e., | x - y | = 20
= 15C 4 - 5 ×9 C 4 = - 5× = 735
1 ×2 ×3 × 4 1 ×2 ×3 × 4 \The area representing the favourable cases
If S be the sample space = Area OPQBRSO
\ n (S ) = 735 = Area of square OABC - Area of
Let E be the occurrence event, then DPAQ - Area of DSRC
n ( E ) = The number of integral solutions of 1 1
= (60)(60) - ( 40)( 40) - ( 40)( 40)
x 1 + x 2 + x 3 + x 4 + x 5 = 16, 2 2
where 2 £ x i £ 5 (i = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) = 3600 - 1600 = 2000 sq units
= Coefficient of x 16 in ( x 2 + x 3 + x 4 + x 5 )5 Total way = Area of square OABC = (60)(60) = 3600 sq units
= Coefficient of x 16 in x 10 (1 + x + x 2 + x 3 )5 2000 5
Required probability = =
= Coefficient of x 6 in (1 + x + x 2 + x 3 )5 3600 9
ìï æ 1 - x 4 ö 5 üï
= Coefficient of x 6 in í ç ÷ ý y Example 32. Consider the cartesian plane R 2 and let
ïî è 1 - x ø ïþ X denote the subset of points for which both
1
= Coefficient of x 6 in (1 - x 4 )5 (1 - x )-5 coordinates are integers. A coin of diameter is tossed
2
= Coefficient of x 6 in randomly onto the plane. Find the probability p that
(1 - 5x 4 + K ) (1 + 5C 1 x + 6C 2 x 2 + K + 10C 6 x 6 + K ) the coin covers a point of X.
= 10C 6 - 5 ×6 C 2 = 10C 4 - 5 ×6 C 2 Sol. Let S denote the set of points inside a square with corners
10 × 9 × 8 × 7 6 ×5 (a, b ), (a, b + 1), (a + 1, b ), (a + 1, b + 1) ÎX
= - 5× = 210 - 75 = 135
1 ×2 ×3 × 4 1 ×2 (a, b+1) (a+1, b+1)
n ( E ) 135 9 D C
\ The required probability, P ( E ) = = = 1/4 1/4
n (S ) 735 49

Uncountable Uniform Spaces S

(Geometrical Problems)
1/4 1/4
A B
y Example 31. Two persons A and B agree to meet at a (a , b ) (a+1, b)
place between 11 to 12 noon. The first one to arrive 1
Let P denotes the set of points in S with distance less than
waits for 20 min and then leave. If the time of their 4
arrival be independent and at random, then what is from any corner point. (observe that the area of P is equal
the probability that A and B meet? to the area inside a circle of
 1 and l - (x + y ) > 0
radius ). Thus a coin, whose centre falls in S, will cover a
4 i.e., x + y < l or y < l - x
point of X if and only if its centre falls in a point of P.
2
Since, in a triangle, the sum of any two sides is greater than
æ1ö third side, so
pç ÷ l
area of P è4ø p x + y > l - (x + y ) Þ y > - x
Hence, p = = = » 0.2 2
area of S 1 15
l
and x + l - (x + y ) > y Þ y <
y Example 33. Three points P, Q and R are selected at 2
random from the circumference of a circle. Find the and y + l - (x + y ) > x Þ x <
l
probability p that the points lie on a semi-circle. 2
Sol. Let the length of the circumference is 2s. Let x denote the l l l
Þ - x < y < and 0 < x <
clockwise arc length of PQ and let y denote the clockwise 2 2 2
arc length of PR. l /2 l /2

So, required probability =

ò0 òl / 2 - x dy dx
l l -x

P
ò0 ò0 dy dx
l /2ì l æl öü
x ò0 í - ç - x ÷ý dx
î 2 è 2 øþ
l /2
ò0 x dx l2 /8 1
R
= l
= l
= 2
=
4
Q
ò (l - x )dx
0 ò0 (l - x ) dx l /2
y
Aliter
Thus, 0 < x < 2s and 0 < y < 2s The elementary event w is characterised by two parameters
Let A denotes the subset of S for which any of the following x and y [since z = l - ( x + y )]. We depict the event by a
conditions holds: point on x, y plane. The conditions x > 0, y > 0, x + y < l
(i) x, y < s (ii) x < s and y - x > s are imposed on the quantities x and y, the sample space is
(iii) x, y > s (iv) y < s and x - y > s the interior of a right angled triangle with unit legs
Then, A consists of those points for which P, Q and R lie on 1
i.e. S W = .
a semi-circle. Thus, 2
Y Y

2s 1 1

IV
III
1/2
Ω A
s
X X
I1 O 1 O 1/2 1
II
The condition A requiring that a triangle could be formed
O s 2s
from the segments x, y, l - ( x + y ) reduces to the following
area of A 3s 2 3 two conditions: (1) The sum of any two sides is larger than
p= = 2 =
area of S 4s 4 the third side, (2) The difference between any two sides is
smaller than the third side. This condition is associated
y Example 34. A wire of length l is cut into three with the triangular domain A with area.
pieces. Find the probability that the three pieces form æ1ö
a triangle. ç ÷
æ1ö æ 1 ö 1 SA è 8 ø 1
SA = ç ÷ ç ÷ = \ P( A ) = = =
Sol. Let the lengths of three parts of the wire be x, y and è2ø è 4 ø 8 SW æ 1 ö 4
ç ÷
l - ( x + y ). Then, x > 0, y > 0 è2ø
 Exercise for Session 4
1 A coin is tossed three times. The probability of getting exactly 2 heads is
1 1 3 5
(a) (b) (c) (d)
4 8 8 8
2 A coin is tossed 4 times. The probability that atleast one head turns up is
1 1 7 15
(a) (b) (c) (d)
16 8 8 16
3 The following is the probability distribution of a random variable X.
X 1 2 3 4 5
P (X ) 0.1 0.2 k 0.3 2k
The value of k is
4 1 1 2
(a) (b) (c) (d)
15 15 5 15
4 A random variable X has the distribution
X 2 3 4
P (X = x ) 0.3 0.4 0.3

Then, variance of the distribution, is

(a) 0× 6 (b) 0× 7 (c) 0× 77 (d) 1× 55
5. In a box containing 100 bulbs, 10 bulbs are defective. Probability that out of a sample of 5 bulbs, none is defective, is
(a) 10-5 (b) 2-5 (c) (0 × 9)5 (d) 0 × 9

6. A pair of dice is rolled together till a sum of either 5 or 7 is obtained. The probability that 5 comes before 7, is
2 2 3
(a) (b) (c) (d) None of these
5 7 7
7. If X follows the binomial distribution with parameters n = 6 and p and 9P ( X = 4) = P ( X = 2), then p is
1 1 1 2
(a) (b) (c) (d)
4 3 2 3
8. If probability of a defective bolt is 0.1, then mean and standard deviation of distribution of bolts in a total of 400, are
(a) 30, 3 (b) 40, 5 (c) 30, 4 (d) 40, 6
5 15
9. The mean and variance of a binomial distribution are and respectively, then value of p, is
4 16
1 15 1 3
(a) (b) (c) (d)
2 16 4 4
10. The mean and variance of a binomial distribution are 6 and 4, then n is
(a) 9 (b) 12 (c) 18 (d) 10
11. A die is thrown 100 times. Getting an even number is considered a success. Variance of number of successes, is
(a) 10 (b) 20 (c) 25 (d) 50
12. 10% of tools produced by a certain manufacturing process turn out to be defective. Assuming binomial
distribution, the probability of 2 defective in sample of 10 tools chosen at random, is
(a) 0.368 (b) 0.194 (c) 0.271 (d) None of these
1
13. If X follows a binomial distribution with parameters n = 100 and p = , then P ( X = r ) is maximum, when r equals
3
(a) 16 (b) 32 (c) 33 (d) None of these
14. The expected value of the number of points, obtained in a single throw of die, is
3 5 7 9
(a) (b) (c) (d)
2 2 2 2
15. Two points P and Q are taken at random on a line segment OA of length a. The probability that PQ > b , where
0 < b < a, is
2 2
b2 a -b ö a - 2b ö
(c) æç (d) æç
b
(a) (b) ÷ ÷
a a2 è a ø èa - b ø
 Answers

Exercise for Session 4

1. (c) 2. (d) 3. (d) 4. (a) 5. (c) 6. (a)
7. (a) 8. (d) 9. (c) 10. (c) 11. (c) 12. (b)
13. (c) 14. (c) 15. (a)