Q2.

Column A: Years Column

B: Yield of Groundnut (Kg./hectare)
Column C: Smoothed Values (Alpha)
Column D: Exponential Smoothing Forecasts
Column E: Forecast Errors Column
F: MAD Column G: MSE

A B C D E F G

Yield of exponenti
Groundnut Smoothe al
(Kg./hectar d Values smoothing forecas
Years e) (Alpha) forcasts t errors MAD MSE
2000- 322.981 162899.
977
01 0.1 977 0 8 3
2001- 338.361 170656.
1127
02 0.2 1007 120 9 4
2002- 178469.
694
03 0.5 920.4 226.4 349.28 2
2003- 355.747 185164.
1357
04 0.7 1053 304 4 6
2004- 358.622 190317.
1020
05 0.9 985.6 34.4 2 3
2005- 377.694 201442.
1187
06 1019 168 1 9
2006-
866
07 954.8 88.8 390.8 212269
2007- 410.933 225894.
1459
08 1073.4 385.6 3 6
2008- 412.742 231409.
1163
09 1014.2 148.8 9 4
2009- 433.046
991
10 979.8 11.2 2 247507
2010- 268122.
1411
11 1063.8 347.2 468.2 1
2011- 281537.
1323
12 1046.2 276.8 479.2 9
2012- 995 980.6 14.4 499.44 302029.
 13 9
2013- 553.333 335565.
1764
14 1134.4 629.6 3 7
2014- 327961.
1552
15 1092 460 543.8 9
2015- 555.771 344585.
1465
16 1074.6 390.4 4 1
2016- 583.333 376613.
1398
17 1061.2 336.8 3 9
2017- 429249.
1893
18 1160.2 732.8 632.64 8
2018- 402313.
1422
19 1066 356 607.6 3
2019- 691.466 494172.
2063
20 1194.2 868.8 7 4
2020- 363851.
1703
21 1122.2 580.8 602.8 8
2021-
1758
22 1133.2 624.8 624.8 390375

500000
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000 MAD
50000
0 exponential smoothing forcasts
- 01 -02 03 04 5 6
00 01 2- 03- 4of -0 -0 -07 08 9 0 Yield of
20 20 200 2Yield
0 00 005 006 07- 08-0 9-1 0-11 -1Smoothed
2 3 4 5 Values (Alpha)
1 6
exponential smoothing
Groundnut forcasts
(Kg./hectare)
2 2 2 (Kg./hectare) - 1 7
Groundnut 20 20 200 201 011 012 13- 14-1 5-1 6-1 -18 -19 20 21 2
2 2 20 20 01 01 17 18 9- 0- -2
2 2 20 20 01 02 21
forecast errors MAD 2 2 20 MSE

For each row in the "Exponential Smoothing Forecasts" column, apply the
exponential smoothing formula using the specified alpha values (0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 0.7,
0.9). The formula is typically:
Ft=α×Yt +(1−α)×Ft−1

Ft is the forecast for the current period.

Yt is the actual value for the current period.
Ft−1 is the forecast for the previous period.
α is the smoothing factor (the alpha value).

Forecasting error Analysis for Different Alpha Values: Mean Absolute Deviation
(MAD) Comparison:

Alpha Value MAD Value

0.1 322.9818
0.2 338.3619

0.5 349.28

0.7 349.28

0.9 358.6222

The MAD represents the average absolute deviation between the forecasted values
and the actual values. Lower MAD values indicate better accuracy in forecasting.

Mean Squared Error (MSE) Comparison:

Alpha Value MSE Value
0.1 162899.3

0.2 170656.4
0.5 178469.2
0.7 185164.6

0.9 190317.3
The MSE measures the average of squared differences between forecasted and
actual values. A lower MSE indicates a better fit of the model to the data.

Interpretation: The alpha value [0.1] resulted in the lowest MAD and MSE,
suggesting it provides a relatively better fit for the forecast compared to other alpha
values.

e.g., increasing or decreasing trend in errors as alpha changes.

This structured explanation will help in presenting your findings and conclusions
regarding the performance of different alpha values for the forecasting model.