Mentorship | Environmental |Supporting families | Uniting Youth | Careers |Tech.

A Logic Model or Theory of Change

SECTIONS
  Section 1 Logic Model or Theory of Change
 Section 2. PRECEDE/PROCEED
 Section 3. Healthy Cities/Healthy Communities
 Section 4. Asset Development
 Section 5. Collective Impact
 Section 6. The Institute of Medicine's Community Health Improvement Process (CHIP)
 Section 7. Ten Essential Public Health Services
 Section 8. Communities That Care
 Section 9. Community Readiness
 Section 10. The Strategic Prevention Framework
 Section 11. Health Impact Assessment
 Section 12. Documenting Health Promotion Initiatives Using the PAHO Guide
 Section 13. MAPP: Mobilizing for Action through Planning and Partnerships
 Section 14. MAP-IT: A Model for Implementing Healthy People 2020
 Section 15. The County Health Rankings & Roadmaps Take Action Cycle
 Section 16. Building Compassionate Communities
 Section 17. Addressing Social Determinants of Health in Your Community
 Section 18. PACE EH: Protocol for Assessing Community Excellence in Environmental
Health

WHAT IS A LOGIC MODEL?

A logic model presents a picture of how your effort or initiative is supposed to work. It explains
why your strategy is a good solution to the problem at hand. Effective logic models make an
explicit, often visual, statement of the activities that will bring about change and the results you
expect to see for the community and its people. A logic model keeps participants in the effort
moving in the same direction by providing a common language and point of reference.
More than an observer's tool, logic models become part of the work itself. They energize and
rally support for an initiative by declaring precisely what you're trying to accomplish and how.
In this section, the term logic model is used as a generic label for the many ways of displaying
how change unfolds.
Some other names include:

 road map, conceptual map, or pathways map

 mental model
 blueprint for change
 framework for action or program framework
 program theory or program hypothesis
 theoretical underpinning or rationale
 causal chain or chain of causation
 theory of change or model of change

Each mapping or modeling technique uses a slightly different approach, but they all rest on a
foundation of logic - specifically, the logic of how change happens. By whatever name you call
it, a logic model supports the work of health promotion and community development by charting
the course of community transformation as it evolves.
THE LOGIC IN LOGIC MODELING
Like a road map, a logic model shows the route traveled (or steps taken) to reach a certain
destination. A detailed model indicates precisely how each activity will lead to desired changes.
Alternatively, a broader plan sketches out the chosen routes and how far you will go. This road
map aspect of a logic model reveals what causes what, and in what order. At various points on
the map, you may need to stop and review your progress and make any necessary adjustments.
A logic model also expresses the thinking behind an initiative's plan. It explains why the
program ought to work, why it can succeed where other attempts have failed. This is the
"program theory" or "rationale" aspect of a logic model. By defining the problem or opportunity
and showing how intervention activities will respond to it, a logic model makes the program
planners' assumptions explicit.
We'll call this Mesuct Hub program "On Track."

 Purpose, or mission. What motivates the need for change? This can also be expressed as
the problems or opportunities that the program is addressing. (For On Track, the community
focused advocates on the mission of enhancing Environment Mentorship and youth
development to improve the high-school dropout rate.)
 Context, or conditions. What is the climate in which change will take place? (How will
new policies and Mesuct programs for On Track be aligned with existing ones? What trends
compete with the effort to engage youth in positive activities? What is the political and
economic climate for investing in youth development?)
 Inputs, or resources or infrastructure. What raw materials will be used to conduct the effort
or initiative? (In On Track, these materials are coordinator and volunteers in the mentoring
program, agreements with participating school districts, and the endorsement of parent
groups and community agencies.) Inputs can also include constraints on the program, such
as regulations or funding gaps, which are barriers to your objectives.
 Activities, or interventions. What will the initiative do with its resources to direct the course
of change? (In our example, the program will train volunteer mentors and refer young
people who might benefit from a mentor.) Your intervention, and thus your logic model,
should be guided by a clear analysis of risk and protective factors.
 Outputs. What evidence is there that the activities were performed as planned? (Indicators
might include the number of mentors trained and youth referred, and the frequency, type,
duration, and intensity of mentoring contacts.)
 Effects, or results, consequences, outcomes, or impacts. What kinds of changes came about
as a direct or indirect effect of the activities? (Two examples are bonding between adult
mentors and youth and increased self-esteem among youth.)

Putting these elements together graphically gives the following basic structure for A Mesuct
logic model. The arrows between the boxes indicate that review and adjustment are an ongoing
process - both in enacting the initiative and developing the model.
Using this generic model as a template, let's fill in the details with another example of a logic
model, one that describes a community health effort to prevent tuberculosis.

 Short-term or immediate effects. (In the On Track example, this would be that young people
who participate in mentoring improve their self-confidence and understand the importance
of staying in school.)
 Mid-term or intermediate effects. (Mentored students improve their grades and remain in
school.)
 Longer-term or ultimate effects. (High school graduation rates rise, thus giving graduates
more employment opportunities, greater financial stability, and improved health status.)

WHEN CAN A LOGIC MODEL BE USED?

Logic models are useful for both new and existing programs and initiatives. If your effort is
being planned, a logic model can help get it off to a good start. Alternatively, if your program is
already under way, a model can help you describe, modify or enhance it.
Planners, program managers, trainers, evaluators, advocates and other stakeholders can use a
logic model in several ways throughout an initiative. One model may serve more than one
purpose, or it may be necessary to create different versions tailored for different aims. Here are
examples of the various times that a logic model could be used.
DURING PLANNING TO:

 clarifyMesuct program strategy

 identify appropriate outcome targets (and avoid over-promising)
 align your efforts with those of other organizations
 write a grant proposal or a request for proposals
 assess the potential effectiveness of an approach
 set priorities for allocating resources
 estimate timelines
 identify necessary partnerships
 negotiate roles and responsibilities
 focus discussions and make planning time more efficient

DURING IMPLEMENTATION TO:

 provide an inventory of what you have and what you need to operate the program or
initiative
 develop a management plan
 incorporate findings from research and demonstration projects
 make mid-course adjustments
 reduce or avoid unintended effects

DURING STAFF AND STAKEHOLDER ORIENTATION TO:

 explain how the overall program works

 show how different people can work together
 define what each person is expected to do
 indicate how one would know if the program is working

DURING EVALUATION TO:

 document accomplishments
 organize evidence about the program
 identify differences between the ideal program and its real operation
 determine which concepts will (and will not) be measured
 frame questions about attribution (of cause and effect) and contribution (of initiative
components to the outcomes)
 specify the nature of questions being asked
  prepare reports and other media
 tell the story of the program or initiative

DURING ADVOCACY TO:

 justify why the program will work

 explain how resource investments will be used

WHAT MAKES A LOGIC MODEL EFFECTIVE?

YOU WILL KNOW A MODEL'S EFFECTIVENESS MAINLY BY ITS
USEFULNESS TO INTENDED USERS. A GOOD LOGIC MODEL
USUALLY:

 Logically links activities and effects

 Is visually engaging (simple, parsimonious) yet contains the appropriate degree of detail for
the purpose (not too simple or too confusing)
 Provokes thought, triggers questions
 Includes forces known to influence the desired outcomes

The more complete your model, the better your chances of reaching "the promised land" of the
story. In order to tell a complete story or present a complete picture in your model, make sure to
consider all forces of change (root causes, trends, and system dynamics). Does your model reveal
assumptions and hypotheses about the root causes and feedback loops that contribute to
problems and their solutions?
In the HOME model, for instance, low home ownership persists when there is a vicious cycle of
discrimination, bad credit, and hopelessness preventing neighborhood-wide organizing and
social change. Three pathways of change were proposed to break that cycle: education; business
reform; and neighborhood organizing. Building a model on one pathway to address only one
force would limit the program's effectiveness.
You can discover forces of change in your situation using multiple assessment strategies,
including forward logic and reverse logic as described above. When exploring forces of change,
be sure to search for personal factors (knowledge, belief, skills) as well as environmental factors
(barriers, opportunities, support, incentives) that keep the situation the same as well as ones that
push for it to change.

WHAT ARE THE BENEFITS AND LIMITATIONS OF LOGIC

MODELING?
You can probably envision a variety of ways in which you might use the logic model you've
developed or that logic modeling would benefit your work.
Here are a few advantages that experienced modelers have discovered.

 Logic models integrate planning, implementation, and evaluation. As a detailed

description of your initiative, from resources to results, the logic model is equally important
for planning, implementing, and evaluating the project. If you are a planner, the modeling
process challenges you to think more like an evaluator. If your purpose is evaluation, the
modeling prompts discussion of planning. And for those who implement, the modeling
answers practical questions about how the work will be organized and managed.
 Logic models prevent mismatches between activities and effects. Planners
often summarize an effort by listing its vision, mission, objectives, strategies and action
plans. Even with this information, it can be hard to tell how all the pieces fit together. By
connecting activities and effects, a logic model helps avoid proposing activities with no
intended effect, or anticipating effects with no supporting activities. The ability to spot such
mismatches easily is perhaps the main reason why so many logic models use a flow chart
format.
 Logic models leverage the power of partnerships. As the W.K. Kellogg Foundation notes
(see Internet Resources below), refining a logic model is an iterative or repeating process
that allows participants to "make changes based on consensus-building and a logical
process rather than on personalities, politics, or ideology. The clarity of thinking that occurs
from the process of building the model becomes an important part of the overall success of
the program." With a well-specified logic model, it is possible to note where the baton
should be passed from one person or agency to another. This enhances collaboration and
guards against things falling through the cracks.
 Logic models enhance accountability by keeping stakeholders focused on outcomes. As
Connie Schmitz and Beverly Parsons point out (see Internet Resources), a list of action
steps usually function as a manager's guide for running a project, showing what staff or
others need to do to--for example, "Hire an outreach worker for a TB clinic." With a logic
model, however, it is also possible to illustrate the effects of those tasks--for example,
"Hiring an outreach worker will result in a greater proportion of clients coming into the
clinic for treatment." This short-term effect then connects to mid- and longer-term effects,
such as "Satisfied clients refer others to the clinic" and "Improved screening and treatment
coverage results in fewer deaths due to TB."

In a coalition or collaborative partnership, the logic model makes it clear which effects each
partner creates and how all those effects converge to a common goal. The family or nesting
approach works well in a collaborative partnership because a model can be developed for each
objective along a sequence of effects, thereby showing layers of contributions and points of
intersection.

 Logic models help planners to set priorities for allocating resources. A comprehensive
model will reveal where physical, financial, human, and other resources are needed. When
planners are discussing options and setting priorities, a logic model can help them make
resource-related decisions in light of how the program's activities and outcomes will be
affected.
  Logic models reveal data needs and provide a framework for interpreting results. It is
possible to design a documentation system that includes only beginning and end
measurements. This is a risky strategy with a good chance of yielding disappointing results.
An alternative approach calls for tracking changes at each step along the planned sequence
of effects. With a logic model, program planners can identify intermediate effects and
define measurable indicators for them.
 Logic models enhance learning by integrating research findings and practice wisdom.
Most initiatives are founded on assumptions about the behaviors and conditions that need to
change, and how they are subject to intervention. Frequently, there are different degrees of
certainty about those assumptions. For example, some of the links in a logic model may
have been tested and proved to be sound through previous research. Other linkages, by
contrast, may never have been researched, indeed may never have been tried or thought of
before. The explicit form of a logic model means that you can combine evidence-based
practices from prior research with innovative ideas that veteran practitioners believe will
make a difference. If you are armed with a logic model, it won't be easy for critics to claim
that your work is not evidence-based.
 Logic models define a shared language and shared vision for community change. The
terms used in a model help to standardize the way people think and how they speak about
community change. It gets everyone rowing in the same direction, and enhances
communication with external audiences, such as the media or potential funders. Even
stakeholders who are skeptical or antagonistic toward your work can be drawn into the
discussion and development of a logic model. Once you've got them talking about the
logical connections between activities and effects, they're no longer criticizing from the
sidelines. They'll be engaged in problem-solving and they'll be doing so in an open forum,
where everyone can see their resistance to change or lack of logic if that's the case.

LIMITATIONS
Any tool this powerful must not be approached lightly. When you undertake the task of
developing a logic model, be aware of the following challenges and limitations.
First, no matter how logical your model seems, there is always a danger that it will not be
correct. The world sometimes works in surprising, counter-intuitive ways, which means we may
not comprehend the logic of change until after the fact. With this in mind, modelers will
appreciate the fact that the real effects of intervention actions could differ from the intended
effects. Certain actions might even make problems worse, so it's important to keep one eye on
the plan and another focused on the real-life experiences of community members.
If nothing else, a logic model ought to be logical. Therein lies its strength and its weakness.
Those who are trying to follow your logic will magnify any inconsistency or inaccuracy. This
places a high burden on modelers to pay attention to detail and refine their own thinking to great
degree. Of course, no model can be perfect. You'll have to decide on the basis of stakeholders'
uses what level of precision is required.
Establishing the appropriate boundaries of a logic model can be a difficult challenge. In most
cases, there is a tension between focusing on a specific program and situating that effort within
its broader context. Many models seem to suggest that the only forces of change come from
within the program in question, as if there is only one child in the sandbox.
At the other extreme, it would be ridiculous and unproductive to map all the simultaneous forces
of change that affect health and community development. A modeler's challenge is to include
enough depth so the organizational context is clear, without losing sight of the reasons for
developing a logic model in the first place.
On a purely practical level, logic modeling can also be time consuming, requiring much energy
in the beginning and continued attention throughout the life of an initiative. The process can
demand a high degree of specificity; it risks oversimplifying complex relationships and relies on
the skills of graphic artists to convey complex thought processes.
Indeed, logic models can be very difficult to create, but the process of creating them, as well as
the product, will yield many benefits over the course of an initiative.
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