Supply Chain 4.0 Sample Chapter 1
Supply Chain 4.0 Sample Chapter 1
MARTIN CHRISTOPHER
Industry 4.0 as an idea emerged in the early years of the 21st century.
Originating from a government-backed initiative in Germany (known
correctly as Industrie 4.0), the term is used as an umbrella to cover a number
of related innovations including the automation of the man–machine inter-
face, the use of artificial intelligence (AI) and the development of connectivity,
particularly through the Internet of Things (IoT) and cloud computing. The
intended aim of Industry 4.0 is to enable the delivery of greater customer
value through customized solutions using fewer resources.
Hermann et al4 have identified a number of design principles for the
wider application of Industry 4.0 in business:
scale up to the de-coupling point, and then after that point transition to a
business model based upon the economies of scope. In this way, overall
supply chain costs can be reduced whilst customer choice and hence satis-
faction is increased.
Whilst this idea of postponement has been around for a long time8 and
has been quite widely adopted in many industries in recent years, its real
potential may well be realized through the advent of Supply Chain 4.0
because it provides the ability to respond more quickly and flexibly and to
reduce the batch size.
Whilst the potential promise of Industry 4.0 is massive, there are many
hurdles to be overcome if this promise is to be realized. Clearly the ground-
breaking technology that is now available – or is close to being
developed – can significantly enable manufacturing and logistics to be
streamlined and to become more efficient than they are today. However, to
make the breakthrough from the past to the future will require a fundamen-
tal change in the way in which we think about the process of matching
supply with demand. In particular we need to break with the conventional
wisdom that can be summarized as ‘forecast-driven’ management. For
centuries the foundation of manufacturing management has been that
demand should be planned for on the basis of a forecast. Because typically
lead times have been long – often measured in months rather than weeks or
days – there has been the necessity to plan ahead if there is to be any chance
of matching demand with supply. Forecast-driven management implies the
building of finished goods inventory in anticipation of demand. As a result,
the costs are increased but also paradoxically service failures will still occur
because of errors in those forecasts.
The longer the forecast horizon, the greater will be the forecast error. It
follows therefore that reducing lead times has to be the goal for organiza-
tions seeking to improve product availability at less cost and with lower
risk. Alongside lead-time reduction is the need to constantly refresh the fore-
cast using data that is current and relevant to the market that we seek to
serve. Hence the twin objectives for managers seeking to improve the match-
ing of demand and supply should be to focus on lead-time reduction and to
capture demand-relevant data in as close to real time as possible.
Customers, as we have previously noted, are seeking more customized
solutions delivered in ever shorter timeframes. Suppliers in both b2b and
b2c markets are faced with customers whose service expectations are
continually rising. As a result, it is becoming increasingly evident that the
goal for companies today has to be to transition from a forecast-driven busi-
ness model to one that is capable of responding to demand as it happens.
Making the transition from forecast-driven to demand-driven will not be
easy, but it can be facilitated by a better use of data. The aim should be to
provide greater customer insight through the exploitation of multiple data
streams captured in as close to real time as possible. Classic ‘mechanistic’
forecasts, which are usually based upon historical data, have poor levels of
accuracy when faced with a rapidly changing business environment. Whilst
longer-term forecasts at a higher level of aggregation will still be required to
plan for the acquisition of resources and capacity, the day-to-day response
D
I C
FIGURE 1.2 Less inventory and capacity needed as the fulcrum gets closer to demand
D I C
Now imagine that the fulcrum is moved closer to the box marked D, as in
Figure 1.2. Simple physics tells us that the same amount of demand can be
balanced with less inventory and/or less capacity.
What the fulcrum reflects here is how close to actual demand we can get
before we respond with a commitment to supply. In reality, moving the
fulcrum closer to demand requires first that we can see what is actually
happening to demand in as close to real time as possible (ie visibility).
Second, it requires a rapid response with the shortest attainable lead time (ie
velocity).
for this lack of progress is that, until recently, employing the technology for
enabling real-time end-to-end connectivity has not been a practical and
viable proposition for many businesses.
Now, however, many of the barriers to the rapid capture, analysis and
sharing of data and information have been removed through the develop-
ments associated with Supply Chain 4.0.
The more that organizations transition towards what some have called
‘virtual’ organizations – as a result of outsourcing – the more the need for
higher levels of connectivity. Connectivity is also essential in the building of
networks with greater structural flexibility. Because structural flexibility
requires an ability to reconfigure networks rapidly as circumstances change,
there is a parallel requirement for an open architecture where data can be
shared easily amongst the current members of the network.
None of this can happen without a high degree of trust amongst all the
members of the network and a willingness to work collaboratively. Whilst
the technology exists to capture and share data, from one end of the supply
chain to the other, through sensors, RFID tags and the like, its full potential
can only be realized if all parties agree to opening up the information high-
way. At the same time there has to be a willingness to align processes across
corporate boundaries and to commit to greater standardization of protocols
and procedures.
The challenge is to find a way around the hurdles and seek out a means
to implement Supply Chain 4.0.
Implementation
Most of the discussions that take place around the theme of Industry 4.0 are
primarily concerned with technology. However, to apply the ideas underpin-
ning Industry 4.0 to supply chain management (ie to achieve ‘Supply Chain
4.0’) involves far more than technology. In particular the ability to exploit
the full potential of these breakthrough developments depends on achieving
the highest level of end-to-end supply chain integration. Whilst the need for
supply chain integration has been a significant theme running through the
literature for many years, the reality is that integration has proved difficult
to achieve in practice.
There are two fundamental aspects of supply chain integration: process
alignment and shared information – both of which are only achievable by
collaborative working across corporate boundaries.
Conclusion
Whilst there are clearly many hurdles to be overcome in the implementation
of Supply Chain 4.0, its potential to enable real end-to-end integration
across supply/demand networks is a compelling argument for striving to
make it happen. Even though we are still in the very early stages of develop-
ment, it is clear that Supply Chain 4.0 thinking and practice have the power
to transform the way we serve the customer. Whereas in the past the customer
was at the end of the supply chain – the recipient of products and service as
determined by the supplier – now they are at the start of that chain, specify-
ing the value that they wish to see provided. Whilst there has been much talk
of the need for companies to become truly market-driven, it is possible that
Supply Chain 4.0 may finally enable this idea to become reality.
Notes
1 Oliver, RK and Webber, MD (1982) Supply chain management: Logistics
catches up with strategy, Outlook, Booz, Allen & Hamilton, Inc, reprinted in
1992 in Logistics: The strategic issues, ed M Christopher, Chapman & Hall,
London
2 Kanter, RM (1994) Collaborative advantage: The art of alliances, Harvard
Business Review, July/August; Lewis, JD (1995) The Connected Corporation,
Free Press, New York; Gattorna, JL and Walters, DW (1996) Managing the
Supply Chain, Macmillan Press, Basingstoke
3 Marsh, P (2012) The New Industrial Revolution, York University Press, York;
Anderson, C (2012) Makers: The new industrial revolution, Random House,
New York
4 Hermann, M et al (2016) Design principles for Industrie 4.0 scenarios, 49th
Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences
5 Prahalad, CK and Ramaswamy, V (2004) The Future of Competition:
Co-creating unique value with customers, Harvard Business School Press,
Boston
6 Yankelovich, D (1964) New criteria for market segmentation, Harvard Business
Review, March/April, pp 83–90; Bass, FM et al (1968) Market segmentation:
Group versus individual behavior, Journal of Marketing Research, 5 (3),
pp 264–70
7 Pine, JB (1993) Mass Customization: The new frontier in business competition,
Harvard Business School Press, Boston
8 Bucklin, LP (1965) Postponement, speculation and the structure of distribution
channels, Journal of Marketing Research, 2 (1), pp 26–31