0% found this document useful (0 votes)
18 views

Prediction Off Pneumonia

Uploaded by

formywork293
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
18 views

Prediction Off Pneumonia

Uploaded by

formywork293
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 6

3UHGLFWLRQRI3QHXPRQLD'LVHDVHRI1HZERUQ%DE\

2021 11th International Conference on Cloud Computing, Data Science & Engineering (Confluence) | 978-1-6654-1451-7/20/$31.00 ©2021 IEEE | DOI: 10.1109/Confluence51648.2021.9377169

%DVHGRQ6WDWLVWLFDO$QDO\VLVRI0DWHUQDO&RQGLWLRQ
8VLQJ0DFKLQH/HDUQLQJ$SSURDFK

0G0HKHGL+DVDQ0G2PDU)DUXN%LGHVK%LVZDV%LNL
0G5LDMXOLLVODP.KDLUXO$ODP6\HGD)DUMDQD6KHWX
'HSDUWPHQWRI&RPSXWHU6FLHQFHDQG(QJLQHHULQJ
'DIIRGLO,QWHUQDWLRQDO8QLYHUVLW\'KDND%DQJODGHVK
‫כ‬PHKHGL#GLXHGXEGRPDU#GLXHGXEGELGHVK#GLXHGXEG
ULDMXO#JPDLOFRPNKDLUXO#GLXHGXEGVKHWX#GLXHGXEG



$EVWUDFW² 3QHXPRQLD LV RQH RI WKH FRPPRQ GLVHDVHV ,FHFUHDP 3UHWHUP %LUWK ([FHVVLYH 6ZHDWLQJ &ROG RU
DPRQJVW FKLOGUHQ LQ %DQJODGHVK 0DQ\ FKLOGUHQ GLH IURP &RXJK:HKDYHIRXQGLQRXUVXUYH\WKDW%DWKLQJ7LPHDQG
SQHXPRQLD LQ %DQJODGHVK 3QHXPRQLD LV DQ LQIHFWLRQ WKDW &ROGRU&RXJKFDQDOVROHDGWKHEDELHVWRZDUGVSQHXPRQLD
LQIHFWVWKHDLUVDFVLQRQHRUERWKOXQJV,Q%DQJODGHVKQHDUO\ $IWHU H[DPLQLQJ RXU VXUYH\ ZH KDYH DSSOLHG PDFKLQH
 FKLOGUHQ GLH RI SQHXPRQLD HYHU\ \HDU )RU GLVHDVHV
OHDUQLQJ DOJRULWKPV WR RXU FROOHFWHG GDWD :H NQRZ DW
IRUHFDVWLQJ0DFKLQHOHDUQLQJDOJRULWKPVDUHSRSXODUDQGXVHG
H[WHQVLYHO\ 0DFKLQH /HDUQLQJ DOORZV XV WR IXOILOO VXFK D WDVN SUHVHQW WLPH WKLV W\SH RI SUREOHP FDQ EH VROYHG XVLQJ WKH
ZLWK PXFK FRQVHTXHQFH :H HVWDEOLVKHG RXU GDWDVHW IURP WKH PDFKLQH OHDUQLQJ DSSURDFK .XUW %HQLUVFKNH HW DO >@
SDUWLFXODU REWDLQDEOH IURP RXU VXUYH\ )RU SURJQRVWLFDWLQJ VKRZHGWKDWFRSLRXVGLVHDVHVPD\KLQGHUSUHJQDQF\,QWKHLU
SQHXPRQLD ZH HPSOR\HG VL[ WUDGLWLRQDO 0DFKLQH /HDUQLQJ H[SHULHQFHZLWKVRPHRIWKHVHFRPSOLFDWLRQVRISUHJQDQF\
DOJRULWKPV7KH\DUH.1HDUHVW1HLJKERU .11 1DLYH%D\HV WKHSODFHQWDOMXGJPHQWVPD\XWWHUO\EHFRUURERUDWLYHRIWKH
FODVVLILHU 'HFLVLRQ 7UHH 6XSSRUW 9HFWRU 0DFKLQH 690  GLVHDVH0LFKDHO6.UDPHUHWDO>@LQWKHLUSDSHUVKRZHG
1HXUDO 1HWZRUN DOJRULWKP DQG 5DQGRP )RUHVW )RU WKDW WR HYDOXDWH WKH LPSDFWV RI SUHVFULELQJ DQ DQWLJHQ
LPSOHPHQWLQJWKHVHDOJRULWKPVZHDSSOLHG6FLNLWOHDUQ3DQGDV DYRLGDQFH GLHW ZKLOH SUHJQDQF\ RU ODFWDWLRQ RU ERWK RQ
1XP3\DQGIRUYLVXDOL]LQJRXUGDWDZHKDYHXVHG0DWSORWOLE
PRWKHUO\ DQG QHZERUQ QXWULWLRQ DQG RQ WKH SUHYHQWLRQ RU
DQGVHDERUQ%\SURSHULQWHUSUHWDWLRQZHFRQVLGHUHGWKHEHVW
SHUIRUPLQJDOJRULWKPIRUWKHSUHGLFWLRQRISQHXPRQLD:HKDYH UHPHG\ RI DWRSLF GLVHDVH LQ WKH FKLOG 0DWHUQDO GLHWDU\
PHDVXUHG WR FODVVLI\ ZKHWKHU SQHXPRQLD GHFOLQHV XQGHU DQWLJHQVDUHDOVRDFNQRZOHGJHGWRVSDQWKHSODFHQWD,QWKLV
SQHXPRQLD 3RVLWLYH  DQG SQHXPRQLD 1HJDWLYH  FODVV $PRQJ DJH RI DUWLILFLDO LQWHOOLJHQFH PDFKLQHV DFW OLNH D KXPDQ
DOOWKHDOJRULWKPVZHKDYHFKRVHQWKHEHVWDOJRULWKPZKLFKLV )RUPLQJ D SUHGLFWLRQ RI SQHXPRQLD DQG VWDWLVWLFDO
SURYLGHG XV EHVW DFFXUDF\ DQG )VFRUH  %\ WKH EHVW H[DPLQDWLRQRIPDWHUQDOILWQHVVLVQRWDVLPSOHWDVN0DFKLQH
DFFRPSOLVKLQJ DOJRULWKP RXU PRGHO FDQ SUHGLFW SQHXPRQLD OHDUQLQJLPSURYHVXVE\JLYLQJRSWLPDOIRUHFDVWH[SHUWLVHOLNH
TXLWHZHOO UHLQIRUFHPHQW OHDUQLQJ DOJRULWKPV VXSHUYLVHG OHDUQLQJ
DOJRULWKPVDQGXQVXSHUYLVHGOHDUQLQJDOJRULWKPV$VZHDUH
.H\ZRUGV²0DFKLQH /HDUQLQJ 'HFLVLRQ WUHH 3QHXPRQLD
6WDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLV'LVHDVHGHWHFWLRQ
ZRUNLQJ RQ SUHGLFWLRQ ZH FKRRVH VXSHUYLVHG OHDUQLQJ
DOJRULWKPV WR PDNH IRUHFDVWLQJ 7KH JLYHQ 0/ WHFKQLTXHV
, ,1752'8&7,21 FDQEHXVHGIRUSUHGLFWLQJSQHXPRQLDDQGVWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLV
3QHXPRQLD LV WKH PRVW PRPHQWRXV RXWFRPH RI DFXWH RIWKHPDWHUQDOFRQGLWLRQ7KLVLVWKHDLPRIRXUZRUN
UHVSLUDWRU\LQIHFWLRQ $5, DQGNLOOVPRUHFKLOGUHQWKDQDQ\ 
RWKHUFRQWDJLRXVGLVHDVH,WLVRQHRIWKHYHU\XVXDOGLVHDVHV 7KLV SDSHU ZLOO EH DUUDQJHG DV IROORZV ,Q 6XEGLYLVLRQ ,,
DPRQJQHZERUQEDELHV(YHQGXULQJSUHJQDQF\EDELHVFDQ UHYLHZRIUHODWHGZRUNLVJLYHQ,QVHJPHQW,,,WKHSURSRVHG
EH DIIHFWHG E\ SQHXPRQLD $OPRVW HYHU\ \HDU  PHWKRGRORJ\LVSURYLGHG,QXQLW,9ZHILQGWKHH[SHULPHQWDO
FKLOGUHQ XQGHU ILYH \HDUV RI DJH RU DURXQG  HYHU\GD\ UHVXOWV DQG FRPSDUH GLIIHUHQW UHVXOWV WKDW ZH DFKLHYHG
ORVVHVWKHLUOLYHV$PRQJWKHPRYHUDUHQHZERUQV WKURXJKGLIIHUHQW0/WHFKQLTXHV,QVHFWLRQ9ZHFRQFOXGHG
ZKLFK DUH DURXQG  RI WKH WRWDO GHDWK UDWH >@ ,Q WKH RXUPRGH)LQDOO\ZHFRQFOXGHGRXUZRUNZLWKDFRQFOXVLRQ
FRQWH[WRI%DQJODGHVKSQHXPRQLDLVUHVSRQVLEOHIRUDOPRVW FRQWDLQLQJIXWXUHZRUNVLQVHFWLRQ9,
RIWKHGHDWKVRIFKLOGUHQXQGHUILYH\HDUVRIDJHZKLFK 
LVDSSUR[LPDWHO\>@6WDWLVWLFVKDYHVKRZQWKDWPRVW ,, /,7(5$785(5(9,(:
RIWKHSQHXPRQLDFDVHVKDYHRFFXUUHGLQYLOODJHV:HKDYH
GRQH RXU VXUYH\ RQ  ZRPHQ LQ WKH YLOODJH ,Q RXU 
TXHVWLRQQDLUHZHKDYHREVHUYHGWKDWDJHLVRQHRIWKHPDLQ &XUUHQWO\WKHXVHRI0DFKLQHOHDUQLQJLVYDVWLQDOPRVWHYHU\
IDFWRUV FDXVLQJ SQHXPRQLD <RXQJHU ZRPHQ GXULQJ FDVH,WKDVDOVREURXJKWDORWVRIVXFFHVVLQPHGLFDOVFLHQFH
SUHJQDQF\DUHPRUHOLNHO\WRKDYHSQHXPRQLDLQWKHLUEDELHV 3UHGLFWLRQ RI GLIIHUHQW GLVHDVH LV RQH RI WKH PRVW SRSXODU
$OOHUJLF5KLQLWLVLVDOVRUHVSRQVLEOHIRUFDXVLQJSQHXPRQLD VHFWRU,WPDNHVRXUOLIHHDV\DQGUHDVRQDEOH6RPHRIUHODWHG
7KHUHDUHDOVRRWKHUFLUFXPVWDQFHVOLNH%DWKLQJ7LPH(DWLQJ ZRUNLVJLYHQEHOORZ

978-1-6654-1451-7/21/$31.00 2021
c IEEE 919

Authorized licensed use limited to: Rutgers University. Downloaded on May 17,2021 at 13:58:31 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
)HQJHWDO>@ILQGRXWDUHWURVSHFWLYHPXOWLFHQWHUVWXG\RI ILQG WKH EHVW DOJRULWKP )LUVW WKH\ XVHG DOO DWWULEXWHV WR
SDWLHQWV ZKR KDYH PLOG &RYLG SQHXPRQLD WR DVVHVV WKH SUHGLFW WKHQ UHPRYH VRPH DWWULEXWHV WR ILQG RXW WKH EHVW
HIILFDF\ RI FKHVWFDOFXODWHG WRPRJUDSK\ ZLWK FOLQLFDO DOJRULWKP'HFLVLRQWUHH1DLYH%D\HV/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV IRU ULVNVWUDWLI\ SDWLHQWV 7KH\ KDYH XVHG 5DQGRP )RUHVW 690 .11 DOJRULWKP XVHG IRU SUHGLFWLRQ
ORJLVWLF UHJUHVVLRQ DQG QRPRJUDP HVWDEOLVKPHQW WR DQDO\]H DQG'HFLVLRQWUHHJLYHVWKHEHVWUHVXOWZLWKWKHDFFXUDF\RI
SDWLHQW¶VGDWD 
<DQTLX HW DO >@ GHVFULEHG D ZRUN WKDW DLPV DW H[DPLQLQJ
PRGHOV IRU SRVWVWURNH SQHXPRQLD SUHGLFWLRQ SDUWLFXODUO\ ,,, 0(7+2'2/2*<
GHHS OHDUQLQJ DSSURDFKHV XVLQJ PRUH DGYDQFHG PDFKLQH )RU FRPSOHWLQJ RXU ZRUN ZH IROORZHG WKHVH VWHS
OHDUQHGDOJRULWKPV7KH\XVHGWUDLQVHWDQGVHWWR FRUUHVSRQGLQJO\
HYDOXDWH WKHLU ZRUN 7KH\ XVHG GLIIHUHQW PDFKLQH OHDUQLQJ

DQG 1HXUDO QHWZRUN 0/3  DOJRULWKPV 7KH\ VHOHFWHG
5(7$,1PHWKRGIRUSUHGLFWLRQ%HFDXVHLWSURGXFHGEHWWHU
SHUIRUPDQFH ZLWK $8&  VHQVLWLYLW\  6SHFLILFLW\

3DXOD'LHKUHWDO>@GHVFULEHWKDWFRXJKZDVFRQVLGHUHGWKH 'DWD&ROOHFWLRQ
ILIWKPRVWFRPPRQFDXVHIRUGRFWRU VYLVLWVEXWNQRZOHGJH
DERXWVHULRXVFRXJKZDVUDUHO\UHTXHVWHGRQDWUHQGDQGZDV
QRW GLVVHFWHG GXULQJ PXOWLYDULDWH WUHDWPHQW 7KH\ DOVR
UHJLVWHUHG&RXJKSDWLHQWVDOOZLWKDJUDGHGKLVWRU\D
3UHSURFHVVLQJ
SK\VLFDOKLVWRU\DQGDQ;UD\OXQJ-XVW SHUFHQW RI
WKHVH ZHUH IRXQG WR KDYH FULWLFDO ;UD\ LQILOWUDWLRQ
SQHXPRQLD  7KH\ KDYH D JXLGHOLQH WKDW VHSDUDWHV
SQHXPRQLDSDWLHQWVZLWKDVHQVLWLYLW\RIDQGRUD
VHQVLELOLW\RIDQGDSUHFLVLRQRI $OJRULWKPV
6WDWLVWLFDO$QDO\VLV
0RKDPHGHWDO>@DOVRWULHGWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKHVHSDUDWLRQRI ,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ
EDFWHULDODQGYLUDOFRQGLWLRQVLQSHGLDWULFSRSXODWLRQDFTXLUHG
SQHXPRQLD E\ & 5HDFWLYH 3URWHLQ &53  QHXWURSKLO DQG
ZKLWH FHOO FRXQWV DV D EDVLV WR FUHDWH FXWV RI SURYRFDWLYH
ODEHOLQJDQG :&& ,QLQIDQWVEDFWHULDOSQHXPRQLDLV (YDOXDWLRQRI0RGHO
ROGHU WKDQ YLUDO SQHXPRQLD FKLOGUHQ %DFWHULDO GLVHDVHV
DVVRFLDWHGWRYLUXVHVKDYHDKLJKHUIUHTXHQF\RIPHGLDQ&53
WKDQ :&& DQG QHXWURSKLO FRXQWV 7KH 52& FXUYH RI WKH
SURWRW\SHIRUGLVFULPLQDWLQJEDFWHULDOIURPYLUDOSQHXPRQLD
EDVHG RQ DJH &53 DQG QHXWURSKLO FDOFXODWLRQ SURYLGHG )LJ0HWKRGRORJ\GLDJUDP
H[SDQVHXQGHUWKHFXUYHRIZLWKVHQVLWLYLW\DQG $ 'DWD&ROOHFWLRQ
VSHFLILFLW\
1LQJHWDO>@UHSUHVHQWHGDQRSHQUHVRXUFHFRPSULVLQJGDWD :H FROOHFWHG RXU GDWD E\ VXUYH\LQJ WKH UXUDO DUHD RI
IURP  SDWLHQWV ZLWK SQHXPRQLD LQFOXGLQJ &29,' %DQJODGHVK 7KLV VXUYH\ ZDV SHUIRUPHG RQO\ IRU :RPHQ
SQHXPRQLD FRQVLVWLQJRIFKHVWFRPSXWHGWRPRJUDSK\ &7  ZKRJDYHELUWKEHWZHHQWR:HVHOHFWHG1DPH$JH
LPDJHV  FOLQLFDO IHDWXUHV IURP D UDQJH RI ELRFKHPLFDO /RFDWLRQ LV FRPPRQ IRU DOO DQG WKH SDUDPHWHUV WKDW DUH
DQG FHOOXODU DQDO\VHV RI EORRG DQG XULQH VDPSOHV  DQG UHVSRQVLEOH IRU RFFXUULQJ 3QHXPRQLD RI D QHZERUQ EDE\
ODERUDWRU\FRQILUPHG VHYHUH DFXWH UHVSLUDWRU\ V\QGURPH 7KHVH W\SHV RI SDUDPHWHUV DUH $OOHUJLF 5KLQLWLV %DWKLQJ
FRURQDYLUXV  6$56&R9  FOLQLFDO VWDWXV 7KH\ DOVR 7LPH (DWLQJ ,FH &UHDP 3UHWHUP ELUWK DQG ([FHVVLYH
VKRZHG WKH HIILFLHQF\ RI WKH GDWDEDVH IRU WKH SURSKHF\ RI 6ZHDWLQJ2XUZRUNLVQRWRQO\DSQHXPRQLDSUHGLFWLRQEXW
&29,' PRUELGLW\DQG PRUWDOLW\RXWFRPHVXVLQJDGHHS DOVR D 6WDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VLV RI WKHVH SDUDPHWHUV WKDW FDXVHV
OHDUQLQJDOJRULWKPWUDLQHGZLWKGDWDIURPSDWLHQWVDQG 3QHXPRQLD 6R HDFK RI RXU VHOHFWHG DWWULEXWHV LV YHU\
 PDQXDOO\ ODEHOHG &7 VOLFHV ,Q D QRQSDUWLVDQ LPSRUWDQW IRU RXU ZRUN 6R ZH FDUHIXOO\ FROOHFWHG WKHVH
YDOLGDWLRQJURXSRISDWLHQWVWKHDOJRULWKPGLVWLQJXLVKHG SDUDPHWHUVE\DTXHVWLRQQDLUHWKDWLVEHOORZHG
DPLGVW QHJDWLYH PLOG DQG FULWLFDO SUHGLFDPHQWV ZLWK ILHOGV 
EHQHDWKWKHUHFHLYHUFRQWDLQLQJRULJLQDOFXUYHRI :DVVKHDIIHFWHGE\$OOHUJLF5KLQLWLVGXULQJSUHJQDQF\"
DQGVHTXHQWLDOO\ :KDWZDV\RXU%DWKLQJ7LPH" 0RUQLQJ$IWHUQRRQ 
$VZDWKL $ . HW DO >@ KDYH SURSRVHG D PHWKRG IRU :DVVKHHDWHQ,FH&UHDPUHJXODUO\GXULQJSUHJQDQF\"
FODVVLILFDWLRQ DQG GLDJQRVLV RI WK\URLG GLVHDVH WR GHWHFW LWV :KDWZDVKLVGHOLYHU\WLPH" 3UHWHUPRUQDWXUDOWLPH "
HDUO\ VWDJH XVLQJ :HLJKWHG 690 FODVVLILFDWLRQ DQG WR :DVVKHDIIHFWHG([FHVVLYH6ZHDWLQJSUREOHP"
RSWLPL]H 690 SDUDPHWHUV VXFK DV 76+ 7 7 WKH\ XVH :DVKHUEDE\DIIHFWHGE\3QHXPRQLD"
SDUWLFOH VZDUP RSWLPL]DWLRQ $OVR WKH\ XVH .11 WR 
DSSUR[LPDWHWKHPLVVLQJYDOXHYLDXVHULQSXW7KLVSURSRVHG 0RVWRIWKHTXHVWLRQVZHUH\HVQRW\SH
ZRUN FRQVWUXFWHG WKH 3UHGLFWLRQ RI 7K\URLG 'LVHDVH 8VLQJ % 3UHSURFHVVLQJ
'DWD0LQLQJ7HFKQLTXHV
  'DWD FOHDQLQJ 2XU LQLWLDOO\ FROOHFWHG GDWD FRQWDLQV
5-DQH 3UHHWKD 3ULQF\ HW DO >@ KDYH SUHGLFWHG FDUGLDF
1DPH DQG /RFDWLRQ WKHVH DUH XQQHFHVVDU\ IRU WUDLQLQJ RXU
GLVHDVH XVLQJ VXSHUYLVHG PDFKLQH OHDUQLQJ DOJRULWKPV DQG

920 2021 11th International Conference on Cloud Computing, Data Science & Engineering (Confluence 2021)

Authorized licensed use limited to: Rutgers University. Downloaded on May 17,2021 at 13:58:31 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
PRGHO6RZHHOHPHQWDOOQDPHVDQGORFDWLRQVIURPWKHPDLQ RI WKH WLPH GHOLYHU\ UDWH GHFUHDVLQJ ZKHQ WKH DJH LV
GDWDVHW LQFUHDVLQJ
  7UDQVIRUPDWLRQ 7R DFTXLUH TXDOLW\ NQRZOHGJH GDWD 
WUDQVIRUPDWLRQLVDYHU\LPSRUWDQWSDUWRIDQ\GDWDVHW>@
PDFKLQHOHDUQLQJDOJRULWKPVGRQRWXQGHUVWDQGVWULQJVRZH
QHHGWRFRQYHUWDOOVWULQJWRDQXPEHU)RUWKLVSXUSRVHIRU
\HVZHXVHGDQGIRU1R
  )HDWXUH 6HOHFWLRQ )RU WKH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH ZH
VHOHFWHG $JH $OOHUJLF 5KLQLWLV %DWKLQJ 7LPH (DWLQJ ,FH
&UHDP 3UHWHUP ELUWK DQG ([FHVVLYH 6ZHDWLQJ $QG &KLOG
3QHXPRQLD LV D GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH WKDW LV SUHGLFWHGE\ RXU
PRGHO

)LJ$OOFROOHFWHGDJHV

,WLVDJUHDWSUREOHPLQRXUFRXQWU\:HQHHGWRRYHUFRPHWKLV
SUREOHPE\LQFUHDVLQJDZDUHQHVVDQGWKHULVNWRJLYHHDUO\
ELUWK7KHOLJKWRIKRSHLVLQRXUFRXQWU\ORWVRIRUJDQL]DWLRQV
OLNH :5$ %DQJODGHVK ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &HQWUH IRU 'LDUUKRHDO
'LVHDVH5HVHDUFK%DQJODGHVK ,&''5% ZRUNWRVROYHWKLV
W\SH RI SUREOHP 5HFHQWO\ ,&''5% KDV GRQH ORWV RI
YDOXDEOHUHVHDUFKDERXWPDWHUQDODQGFKLOGKRRGPDOQXWULWLRQ


)LJ+HDWPDSWRFRUUHODWLRQ

)LJ  5HSUHVHQW WKH FRUUHODWLRQ ZLWK HDFK DQG HYHU\
DWWULEXWH ,Q WKLV JUDSK GHHSHU FRORU UHSUHVHQWV OHVV
FRUUHODWLRQDQGOLJKWHUFRORUUHSUHVHQWVWKHKLJKHVWFRUUHODWLRQ
EHWZHHQ WZR DWWULEXWHV 7KH KLJKHVW FRUUHODWLRQ ZLWK
SQHXPRQLDLVIRUWKHDWWULEXWH3UHWHUPELUWKORZHVWLV
IRUWKHDWWULEXWH$JHV
& 6WDWLVWLFDO$QDO\VLV
,QWKLVSRUWLRQZHWULHGWRILQGRXWWKHFDXVHVRISQHXPRQLD
LQDQHZERUQEDE\,VLWGHSHQGLQJRQWKHPRWKHU VKHDOWKRU
GDLO\ URXWLQH" )RU WKLV SXUSRVH ZH IRFXVHG RQ RXU
LQGHSHQGHQWDWWULEXWHV
  $JH$QDO\VLV:HVXUYH\HGEHWZHHQWKHDJHVRIWR
DQGZHFROOHFWHGWKHDJHZKHQWKH\KDYHJLYHQELUWKWRD )LJ3QHXPRQLDUDWLRDFFRUGLQJWRPRWKHU¶VDJH
FKLOG)LJUHSUHVHQWVWKHDJHZKHQWKH\JDYHELUWKWRWKHLU 
)URP RXU VXUYH\ ZH IRXQG  SQHXPRQLD LQIDQWV RXW RI
EDE\RQWKH[D[LVDQGWKH \D[LVUHSUHVHQWVWKH QXPEHURI
)LJ,OOXVWUDWHVWKHHIIHFWRIPRWKHUDJHIRUFDXVH¶V
WKLVLQGHFHQW)URPWKLVJUDSKZHFDQVHHWKHKLJKHVWQXPEHU
SQHXPRQLD :H FDQ VHH WKH KLJKHVW SHUFHQWDJH RI DIIHFWHG
 ZKHQ WKH DJH RI  WKH\ KDYH JLYHQ ELUWK 7KH ORZHVW
UDWH RI SQHXPRQLD IRU QHZERUQ EDELHV  DOO PRWKHUV
QXPEHUDURXQGZKHQWKHLUDJHZDV\HDUVROG6R]RXHW
ZKRKDYHWDNHQEDE\DWWKHDJHRI\HDUV$QGWKHORZHVW
DO>@KDYHIRXQGWKDWZRPHQKDYHKLJKIHUWLOLW\ZKHQWKH DIIHFWHGUDWHLVRIQHZERUQEDELHVZKHQWKHLUPRWKHU V
DJHRIDQGSUHJQDQF\ULVNVROHVV$QGIHUWLOLW\EHFRPHV DJHZDV\HDUV)RUPWKLVJUDSKLIZHFRPSDUHWKHDJHRI
GHFOLQHVDWWKHDJHRI$FFRUGLQJWR:+2>@WDNHD DQG\HDUVZHFDQVHHWKDWIURPWR\HDUV
EDE\ XQGHU  \HDUV ROG LV DKLJKULVN ORZ ELUWK UDWH DQG D ROGPRWKHU¶VEDELHVOHVVDIIHFWHGWKDQWKHDJHRI\HDUV
KLJK FKDQFH RI SUHWHUP GHOLYHU\ ,I ZH KLJKO\ FULWLFL]H WKH   ,PSDFW RI 5RXWLQHDQG 'LVHDVH 3UHJQDQF\ WLPH LV D
JUDSKZHFDQVD\WKDWLQRXUFRXQWU\7KHWHQGHQF\WRJLYH FUXFLDOPRPHQWIRUHYHU\ZRPDQ'XULQJWKLVWLPHLIVKHGRHV
ELUWKDWDQHDUO\DJHLVPXFKKLJKHULQ%DQJODGHVK$QGPRVW QRWIROORZDURXWLQHSURSHUO\WKHUHPLJKWEHVRPHEDGLPSDFW

2021 11th International Conference on Cloud Computing, Data Science & Engineering (Confluence 2021) 921

Authorized licensed use limited to: Rutgers University. Downloaded on May 17,2021 at 13:58:31 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
RQ KHU EDE\ 'LIIHUHQW GLVHDVH SUHJQDQF\ WLPH LV DQRWKHU LPSOHPHQWHG ZLWK WKH KHOS RI WKH PRVW SRSXODU 0/ OLEUDU\
IDFWRUWKDWFDXVHVDEDGHIIHFWRQWKHEDE\ VLFNLWOHDUQ7RDFTXLUHWKHEHVWDFFXUDF\ZHXVHGDGLIIHUHQW
 SDUDPHWHUWKDWLVJLYHQLQ7DEOH,:HVHWWKHEHVWSDUDPHWHU
IRU HDFK DOJRULWKP IRU ZKLFK SDUDPHWHU WKH DOJRULWKP
SURGXFHVWKHKLJKHVWDFFXUDF\DQGEHVW)VFRUH

,9 (;3(5,0(17$/5(68/76
:H KDYH XVHG VHYHUDO 0DFKLQH /HDUQLQJ DOJRULWKPV WR
SUHGLFWSQHXPRQLD:HDSSOLHG.1HDUHVW1HLJKERU .11 
1DLYH %D\HV FODVVLILHU 'HFLVLRQ 7UHH 6XSSRUW 9HFWRU
0DFKLQH 690  1HXUDO 1HWZRUN DOJRULWKP DQG 5DQGRP
)RUHVWIRUSUHGLFWLRQ:HFRPSDUHGWKHVHDOJRULWKPVEDVHG
RQDFFXUDF\DQG)VFRUH)URPWKHDFFXUDF\WDEOH7DEOH,,
:HFDQVHHWKDWIRUWHVWGDWDXVDJHUDWHZHJRW
IRU 1DLYH %D\HV  IRU 'HFLVLRQ 7UHH  IRU
690  IRU 1HXUDO 1HWZRUN  IRU 5DQGRP
)RUHVWDQGWHVWGDWDXVDJHUDWHZHJRWDFFXUDF\
LQ.11
)URPWKH)VFRUHPDWUL[WDEOH7DEOH,,,:HDOVRVHHWKDWIRU
)LJ3RVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYHUDWHRIDIIHFWHG WKH  WHVW GDWD XVDJH UDWH ZH JRW  IRU .11
 IRUQDLYH%D\HVIRU'HFLVLRQ7UHH
7RNHHSLWLQPLQGZHDOVRDQDO\]HVRPHFRPPRQGLVHDVHV IRU 690  IRU 1HXUDO 1HWZRUN DQG  IRU
DQGGDLO\DFWLYLWLHVRIZRPHQ)LJ5HSUHVHQWVSRVLWLYHDQG 5DQGRP)RUHVW&RQVLGHULQJUHVXOWVIURPDOOWKHDOJRULWKPV
QHJDWLYH DWWULEXWHV RI ZRPHQ ZKRVH EDE\ ZDV DIIHFWHG E\ ZHFKRVHWKH'HFLVLRQ7UHHIRULWVRXWVWDQGLQJSHUIRUPDQFH
SQHXPRQLD,QWKLV JUDSKEOXHFRORULQGLFDWHVSRVLWLYHDQG 
RUDQJH FRORU LQGLFDWH QHJDWLYH $ERXW  QXPEHUV RI WKH
PRWKHUDIIHFWHGE\FROGFRXJKZKRVHEDE\ZDVDIIHFWHGE\
SQHXPRQLD %DWKLQJ WLPH LV DOVR DQRWKHU UHDVRQ WKDW PD\
FDXVH SQHXPRQLD LQ LQIDQWV 2XU VXUYH\ UHSRUW VKRZV WKDW
PRVWRIWKHPRWKHUVDURXQGZKRZHUHEDWKLQJODWH DIWHU
30 WKHLUFKLOGUHQZHUHPRUHDIIHFWHGE\SQHXPRQLD
$OVRZHKDYHVHHQWKDWSUHWHUPELUWKWKHFDXVHRISQHXPRQLD
VDPH DV EDWKLQJ WLPH $URXQG  ZRPHQ ZHUH DIIHFWHG
WKURXJK DOOHUJLF UKLQLWLV GXULQJ SUHJQDQF\ DQG WKHLU EDELHV
ZHUHDIIHFWHGE\SQHXPRQLDWKRXJKWKHQRWDIIHFWHGQXPEHUV
RI ZRPHQ ZHUH D OLWWOH ELW KLJKHU WKDQ WKUHH SUHYLRXV
DWWULEXWHV$WODVWZHFDQVHHWKHWHQGHQF\WRJHWSQHXPRQLD
RIQHZERUQEDELHVLVPXFKOHVVZKLOHWKHPRWKHUVHDWLQJLFH
FUHDPDQGH[FHVVLYHVZHDWLQJGXULQJSUHJQDQF\
' $OJRULWKPV,PSOHPHQWDLRQ

7$%/(, $775,%87(86$*(6

ůŐŽƌŝƚŚŵƐ ĞƚĂŝůƐ )LJ&RPSDULVRQEHWZHHQUHDODQGSUHGLFWLRQ


EE ůĂƐƐŝĨŝĞƌсD>WůĂƐƐŝĨŝĞƌ͕ĂĐƚŝǀĂƚŝŽŶс 
ƌĞůƵ͕ƐŽůǀĞƌсĂĚĂŵ͕ŵĂdžͺŝƚƚĞƌсϭϬϬϬ͕ ,Q)LJWKHRUDQJHFRORULQGLFDWHVWKHUHDOYDOXHDQGJUHHQ
ĂůƉŚĂсϭ LQGLFDWHV WKH SUHGLFWHG YDOXH )RU PRVW RI WKH FDVHV RXU
EĂŢǀĞĂLJĞƐ ZĂŶĚŽŵͺƐƚĂƚĞсϭ͕ĐůĂƐƐŝĨŝĞƌс SUHGLFWHGYDOXHRYHUODSSHGWKHUHDOYDOXH2QO\IRUFDVHV
'ĂƵƐƐŝĂŶE RXUSUHGLFWHGYDOXHVKDYHVKRZQWKHZURQJYDOXHV)RUERWK
<EE <сϯ͕ƉсϮ͕ƌĂŶĚŽŵͺƐƚĂƚĞсϬ͕ǁĞŝŐŚƚс
FDVHVLWKDVVKRZQLQVWHDGRIDQGIDGHGIURPWKHDFWXDO
ŝƐƚĂŶĐĞ
ĞĐŝƐŝŽŶdƌĞĞ ƌĂŶĚŽŵͺƐƚĂƚĞсϬ͕ƐƉůŝƚƚĞƌсďĞƐƚ͕ĐƌŝƚĞƌŝŽŶ YDOXHOLQH7KDWH[SUHVVRXUPRGHOLVYHU\DFFXUDWH
сĞŶƚƌŽƉLJ 
^sD <ĞƌŶĞůсůŝŶĞĂƌ͕ƌĂŶĚŽŵͺƐƚĂƚĞсϰϮ
9 (9$/8$7,212)28502'(/
ZĂŶĚŽŵ&ŽƌĞƐƚ ŶͺĞƐƚŝŵĂƚŽƌƐсϭϬϬ͕ůĂƐƐǁĞŝŐŚс
ďĂůĂŶĐĞĚ :H HYDOXDWHG 'HFLVLRQ WUHH DOJRULWKP E\ FRQIXVLRQ
 PDWUL[)RUYDOLGDWLRQZHKDYHXVHGQHZUHFHQWGDWD2XU
,Q RXU ZRUN ZH FODVVLI\ SUHGLFWHG YDULDEOH 3QHXPRQLD DOJRULWKPSURGXFHGWUXHQHJDWLYHWUXHSRVLWLYHIDOVH
SRVLWLYH RU QHJDWLYH VR ZH FODVVLI\ DOO DWWULEXWHV EDVHG RQ SRVLWLYHDQGIDOVHQHJDWLYH6RZHFDQFDOFXODWHSUHFLVLRQ
SQHXPRQLD SRVLWLYH RU QHJDWLYH :H DSSOLHG VL[ GLIIHUHQW UHFDOODQGMXVWLI\PRGHOIRUSQHXPRQLDQHJDWLYHRUSRVLWLYH
0DFKLQH /HDUQLQJ FODVVLILFDWLRQ DOJRULWKPV DOO DOJRULWKP LV SUHGLFWLRQ

922 2021 11th International Conference on Cloud Computing, Data Science & Engineering (Confluence 2021)

Authorized licensed use limited to: Rutgers University. Downloaded on May 17,2021 at 13:58:31 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
 

7$%/(,, $&&85$&<7$%/(

 $OJRULWKPV
7HVWLQJ
 'DWDXVDJH
1HXUDO1HWZRUN 5DQGRP
UDWH .11 1DLYH%D\HV 'HFLVLRQWUHH 690 )RUHVW

      
      
      

      

      

7$%/(,,, )6&25(0$75,;7$%/(


 $OJRULWKPV
 7HVWLQJ
'DWDXVDJH
 UDWH
1HXUDO1HWZRUN 5DQGRP
 .11 1DLYH%D\HV 'HFLVLRQWUHH 690 )RUHVW
       
       
       

      

  
    




 

5HFDOOUDWHIRU1HJDWLYH
்ே ଶ଴
      
்ேାி௉ ଶ଴ାଶ

)LJUHSUHVHQWVFRQIXVLRQPDWUL[RI'HFLVLRQWUHHDOJRULWKP
)URPDERYHFDOFXODWLRQZHFDQVHHWKDWRXUPRGHOLVEHWWHUIRU
SRVLWLYHSQHXPRQLDSUHGLFWLRQDVSRVLWLYHUHFDOOUDWHLVEHWWHU
WKDQQHJDWLYHUHFDOOUDWH

9, &21&/86,21$1')8785(:25.
 (YHU\QHZERUQEDE\LVWKHIXWXUHRIWKLVZRUOG,WLVRXU
GXW\WRSURWHFWWKHLUKHDOWK,IZHFDQGHYHORSDV\VWHPWKDW
FDQ UHGXFH WKH LQFLGHQFH RI SQHXPRQLD LW ZLOO EH RXU JUHDW
VXFFHVV ,Q RXU VXJJHVWHG PRGHO ZH KDYH PDQLSXODWHG VL[
SRSXODU FODVVLILFDWLRQ 0/ DOJRULWKPV WR DFKLHYH WKH EHVW
RXWFRPH$IWHUHPSOR\LQJWKHVHDOJRULWKPVWRWKHGDWDVHWZH
)LJ&RQIXVLRQPDWUL[ SHUFHLYHGWKDWWKHH[DFWQHVVSURGXFHGE\WKHDOJRULWKPVZDV
 QRW DOLNH 7KH GHFLVLRQ WUHH DOJRULWKP SHUIRUPHG WKH EHVW
DFFXUDF\ &RPSDUDWLYHO\ WKH 'HFLVLRQ WUHH JRW WKH EHVW
்௉ା்ே ଶ଴ାଶଷ
$FFXUDF\       DFFXUDF\ZHDSSOLHGWKLVIRUIRUHFDVWLQJRISQHXPRQLDGLVHDVH
்௉ାி௉ାிேା்ே ଶଷାଶା଴ାଶ଴
RIDQHZERUQEDE\DQGWKHVWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLVRIWKHPDWHUQDO
  FRQGLWLRQ,WLVGHVLUDEOHWRPLQLPL]HWKHGHDWKRILQIDQWV7KLV
 ZRUNFDQDVVLVWWKHJRYHUQPHQWWRDZDUHWKHSHRSOH
(UURU    
:HVSHFXODWHGWRDFFRPSOLVKWKHEHVWREWDLQDEOHFRQVHTXHQFH
 EXW WKHUH DUH VWLOO D IHZ EDUULHUV WR RXU ZRUN 2QH RI WKH
5HFDOOUDWHIRUSRVLWLYH VLJQLILFDQWOLPLWDWLRQVRIRXUZRUNLVWKDWZHKDYHQ WVXUYH\HG
்௉ ଶଷ
      WKHZKROHFRXQWU\:HKDYHLQVSHFWHGVL[YLOODJHVRI&RPLOOD
்௉ାிே ଶଷା଴
 6LUDMJDQMDQG*RSDOJDQM$GGLWLRQDOO\ZHKDYHZRUNHGZLWK
SUHJQDQW ZRPHQ RQO\ ,Q WKH IXWXUH :H ZLOO GHYHORS DQ

2021 11th International Conference on Cloud Computing, Data Science & Engineering (Confluence 2021) 923

Authorized licensed use limited to: Rutgers University. Downloaded on May 17,2021 at 13:58:31 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
LQWHOOLJHQWV\VWHPWKDWZLOOSUHGLFWSQHXPRQLDDQGUHGXFHWKH FRXJK²$ VWDWLVWLFDO DSSURDFK -RXUQDO RI &KURQLF
GHDWKUDWHRIQHZERUQEDELHVVPDUWO\%\XVLQJWKLVV\VWHP 'LVHDVHV´ 9ROXPH  ,VVXH   3DJHV 
GXULQJSUHJQDQF\SHRSOHZLOONQRZZKDWWKH\VKRXOGGRDQG ,661  KWWSVGRLRUJ
ZKDW VKRXOG QRW $QG DOVR ZH ZLOO WU\ WR HQKDQFH RXU GDWD   
FROOHFWLRQE\JDWKHULQJGDWDIURPWKHZKROHFRXQWU\DQGZLOO
GHYHORSDQDQGURLGDSSOLFDWLRQZKLFKFDQEHHDV\WRXVHIRU > 0RKDPHG $(OHPUDLG 6WHSKHQ3 5XVKWRQ0DWWKHZ )
DQ\SHRSOH 7KRPDV'DYLG$6SHQFHU$QGUHZ5*HQQHU\-XOLD(
&ODUN 8WLOLW\ RI LQIODPPDWRU\ PDUNHUV LQ SUHGLFWLQJ WKH
 DHWLRORJ\ RI SQHXPRQLD LQ FKLOGUHQ 'LDJQRVWLF
0LFURELRORJ\DQG,QIHFWLRXV'LVHDVH9ROXPH,VVXH
5()(5(1&(6  3DJHV  ,661 
 KWWSVGRLRUJMGLDJPLFURELR
>@8QLFHI  2FWREHU  3QHXPRQLD $YDLODEOH >@1LQJ:/HL6<DQJ-HWDO2SHQUHVRXUFHRIFOLQLFDO
KWWSVGDWDXQLFHIRUJWRSLFFKLOG GDWD IURP SDWLHQWV ZLWK SQHXPRQLD IRU WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RI
KHDOWKSQHXPRQLDVWKDVKU/0:$NR%GSXI &29,'RXWFRPHVYLDGHHSOHDUQLQJ1DW%LRPHG(QJ
>@,&''5% 3QHXPRQLD DQG RWKHU UHVSLUDWRU\ GLVHDVHV  ±   KWWSVGRLRUJV
$YDLODEOH KWWSVZZZLFGGUERUJQHZVDQG 
HYHQWVSUHVVFRUQHUPHGLDUHVRXUFHVSQHXPRQLDDQG >@$VZDWKL$.$QLO$QWRQ\³$Q,QWHOOLJHQW6\VWHPIRU
RWKHUUHVSLUDWRU\GLVHDVHV 7K\URLG 'LVHDVH &ODVVLILFDWLRQ DQG 'LDJQRVLV´ QG
>@.%HQLUVFKNH*-%XUWRQDQG51%DHUJHQ0DWHUQDO ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RQIHUHQFH RQ ,QYHQWLYH &RPPXQLFDWLRQ
GLVHDVHV FRPSOLFDWLQJ SUHJQDQF\ GLDEHWHV WXPRUV DQG &RPSXWDWLRQDO 7HFKQRORJLHV ,&,&&7  
SUHHFODPSVLD OXSXV DQWLFRDJXODQW LQ 3DWKRORJ\ RI WKH SS
KXPDQSODFHQWD6SULQJHUSS >@5-33ULQF\63DUWKDVDUDWK\36+HQF\-RVH$5DM
>@06.UDPHUDQG5-(%&+$&5-.DNXPD /DNVKPLQDUD\DQDQ DQG 6 -HJDQDWKDQ 3UHGLFWLRQ RI
0DWHUQDOGLHWDU\DQWLJHQDYRLGDQFHGXULQJSUHJQDQF\RU &DUGLDF 'LVHDVH XVLQJ 6XSHUYLVHG 0DFKLQH /HDUQLQJ
ODFWDWLRQRUERWKIRUSUHYHQWLQJRUWUHDWLQJDWRSLFGLVHDVH $OJRULWKPV  WK ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RQIHUHQFH RQ
LQWKHFKLOGYROQRSS ,QWHOOLJHQW &RPSXWLQJ DQG &RQWURO 6\VWHPV ,&,&&6 
0DGXUDL ,QGLD  SS  GRL
>@)HQJ=<X4<DR6HWDO(DUO\SUHGLFWLRQRIGLVHDVH ,&,&&6
SURJUHVVLRQLQ&29,'SQHXPRQLDSDWLHQWVZLWKFKHVW
&7 DQG FOLQLFDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV 1DW &RPPXQ   >@ $ .XVLDN )HDWXUH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ PHWKRGV LQ GDWD
 KWWSVGRLRUJV[ PLQLQJLQ,(((7UDQVDFWLRQVRQ(OHFWURQLFV3DFNDJLQJ
0DQXIDFWXULQJYROQRSS-XO\GRL
>@<DQTLX*H4LQJKXD:DQJ/L:DQJ+RQJKX:X&KHQ 
3HQJ -LDMLQJ :DQJ <XDQ ;X *DQJ ;LRQJ <DR\XQ
=KDQJ <LQJSLQJ <L3UHGLFWLQJ ³SRVWVWURNH SQHXPRQLD >@6R]RX3'+DUWVKRUQH*0  7LPHWR3UHJQDQF\$
XVLQJ GHHS QHXUDO QHWZRUN DSSURDFKHV´,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RPSXWDWLRQDO 0HWKRG IRU 8VLQJ WKH 'XUDWLRQ RI 1RQ
-RXUQDO RI 0HGLFDO ,QIRUPDWLFV9ROXPH &RQFHSWLRQIRU3UHGLFWLQJ&RQFHSWLRQ3/2621(  
,661  HKWWSVGRLRUJMRXUQDOSRQH
KWWSVGRLRUJMLMPHGLQI >@ : + 2  -DQXDU\   $GROHVFHQW SUHJQDQF\
>@3DXOD'LHKU5REHUW::RRG-DPHV%XVK\KHDG/HLJK $YDLODEOH KWWSVZZZZKRLQWQHZVURRPIDFW
.UXHJHU %DUU\ :ROFRWW 5LFKDUG . 7RPSNLQV VKHHWVGHWDLODGROHVFHQWSUHJQDQF\
³3UHGLFWLRQ RI SQHXPRQLD LQ RXWSDWLHQWV ZLWK DFXWH


924 2021 11th International Conference on Cloud Computing, Data Science & Engineering (Confluence 2021)

Authorized licensed use limited to: Rutgers University. Downloaded on May 17,2021 at 13:58:31 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.

You might also like