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Assignment 1 ME 474 IE 454

The document provides instructions for completing two questions involving production planning calculations. Question 1 involves filling out a table with values like MPS, PAB and ATP given a master schedule and assumptions. Question 2 involves forecasting the number of sheds sold each month using two different forecasting techniques and calculating errors to determine the better technique.

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ALFRED BONAH
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14 views

Assignment 1 ME 474 IE 454

The document provides instructions for completing two questions involving production planning calculations. Question 1 involves filling out a table with values like MPS, PAB and ATP given a master schedule and assumptions. Question 2 involves forecasting the number of sheds sold each month using two different forecasting techniques and calculating errors to determine the better technique.

Uploaded by

ALFRED BONAH
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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ME 474/IE 454 PRODUCTION PLANNING AND CONTROL

Assignment 1

Index Number:

Programme: …………………………………………………………………………………

Instructions:
Complete the tables on a printed-out version of this sheet based on your calculations which should be done
on a separate sheet. Attach your “calculations sheet” to the completed printed-out sheet and submit both.
For question 2, calculations should be shown for just the forecasts, and the forecast errors.
Deadline is 08:30 AM on 23-06-2023.

Question 1
Given the following master schedule, fill in the MPS, Projected Available Balance (PAB) and Available to
Promise (ATP) rows. Assume the following:
▪ Time Fence = 2 week.
▪ On hand/starting inventory/PAB (0) = 56
▪ MPS values can only be in multiples of 60 (i.e., 60, 120, etc). So, if the calculated MPS is less than 60,
round it up to 60, and if more than 60, round it up to 120, etc.

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Forecast 22 25 20 20 18 18 32 30 28 28

Customer Orders 24 23 17 22 15 14 17 16 12 16

Total Demand

MPS

PAB

ATP
Question 2
In the last 6 months, the Nyansapo Hardware Store has sold the number of sheds presented in Table 2 below.
The shops sales manager wants to test the 3-month simple moving average and weighted moving averages
forecasting techniques to see how well the techniques work in predicting sheds sold.
a) Estimate the number of sheds sold for March to June using the 3-months moving average. Round up all
forecasts to the nearest whole number.
b) Estimate the number of sheds sold for January to June using the Single Exponential Smoothing Forecast.
Use a smoothing constant of α=0.10. Round up all forecasts to the nearest whole number.
c) State which of the two techniques is better in terms of the MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) and MSE
(Mean Squared Error), and state why.

Actual 3-Month Absolute Squared Single Absolute Squared


Sales Moving Deviation Error Exponential Deviation Error
Month
Average Smoothing
Forecast Forecast (α=0.10)
December 10 - - - 8 2

January 12 - - -

February 13 - - -

March 16 12 4

April 19

May 23

June 26

∑= ∑= ∑= ∑=

Note that:
Absolute Deviation (or Absolute Error) = |Actual Sales – Forecasted Sales|
Squared Error = (Actual Sales – Forecasted Sales)2

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