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Energy Security In India

Preprint · July 2022

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.10074.21443

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Energy Security In India

*
Priyanshu Meshram, 19D180021, [email protected]
**
Saharsh, 19D180027, [email protected]

***Adarsh Dwivedi, 19D18001, [email protected]

*
ESED, IIT Bombay

Abstract- The demands and aspirations of India's billion-plus citizens drive the country's energy needs. India's
import dependence has grown as domestic fuel output has fallen behind demand growth. As a result, India's
energy security has been a source of concern. We believe that India's energy security must be considered from
the perspective of the country's unique history. It must also take into account issues like accessibility, price, and
environmental sustainability. To track India's energy security, this study provides a customized, wide energy
security index. The index also identifies a wide range of policies required to ensure India's energy security in
the future. Because of rising earnings and expanding living standards, India is the world's third-largest energy
consumer. Since 2000, energy consumption has increased, with coal, oil, and solid biomass still meeting 80%
of demand. In the previous 30 years, the world's energy demand has grown by 95%. It is expected to increase
by 33% over the next 15 years and 45% over the next 20. 1 Large increases in demand from India and China
will account for the majority of that growth. Much has been written about China's future energy needs, which
are second only to the United States in global energy demand. This article examines India's energy resources
and requirements, with a focus on oil and gas. It investigates India's efforts to address the impending energy
problem and provide supply security through diversification. On the other hand, natural gas now accounts for
only 8% of India's primary energy supply, with the majority of that gas coming from onshore and offshore
domestic sources. However, if gas consumption reaches to 20% by 2025, as expected, as India approaches the
global average for natural gas use, the situation will shift dramatically.

1. Energy Security – Analysis of the concept and its

Application

1.1 Introduction
Resources are limited, and the direct link between energy supply and living standards has heightened interest in
the notion of energy security, which has varied implications for different countries. Energy security is the
association between national security and the availability of natural resources for energy consumption. Hughes
proposed a formal examination of energy security as a feature of the energy system. A country's physical energy
system can be separated into three sub-systems: energy supply, energy conversion and distribution, and energy
demand sub-system. Domestic primary energy extraction and energy imports in the form of coal, crude oil,
natural gas, and other forms of energy make up the energy supply sub-system.[16] The energy conversion and
distribution sub-system convert primary energy into various energy carriers, such as electricity and oil products,
subsequently distributed to end-users. The energy demand sub-system comprises several economic sectors like
industrial, residential, and transportation, and final energy is utilized in all of them. [17]
Energy security has four aspects :
 2

 Reliability and supply security

 Economics
 Access
 Sustainability

1.2 The concept of "Energy Security

The concept of energy security is based on the general concept of security. As a result, it's a good idea to start
talking about energy security by defining what "security" means in terms of military and non-military policies.
There can be four principles of energy security that ensures risk minimization :

 Quantifiable
 Actionable
 Intuitive
 Availability of credible data from public resources

1.3 India's Energy Demand

The energy supply in an energy system is triggered by the demand for energy services from various sectors of
the economy. The energy supply sub-system responds to this demand and, to the extent possible, satisfies it. As
a result, the demand sub-system is the driving force behind a country's energy security. The importance of the
demand sub-system is also reflected in India's energy security strategy, which is summarised as follows: "The
country is energy secure when we can supply lifeline energy to all our citizens as well as meet their effective
demand for safe and convenient energy to satisfy various
needs at affordable costs at all times with a prescribed confidence
level considering shocks and disruptions that can be reasonably
expected" (Narula, Sudhakara Reddy, & Pachauri, 2017).[26] Coal (55 percent) presently meets the most
significant share of India's energy needs among the important fuel sources. Excessive pollution and ash
treatment and disposal are additional obstacles; therefore, clean coal technology will undoubtedly play an
essential role in the future. By 2030, it is expected that production from major existing open-cast mines will
begin to decline. With France, Germany, Russia, Canada, Australia, and China, India has formed coal Joint
Working Groups. These partnerships primarily focus on bringing in new technologies in the underground and
open-cast sectors, promoting efficient management, skill development, and training, obtaining bilateral funds to
import equipment not manufactured in India, and obtaining foreign financial assistance to meet investment
requirements.[27]

1.4 India and Energy Security

On track to become one of the world's most significant economies, India must maintain its current economic
growth rate of 8% to help eradicate poverty and achieve its economic and social development goals. More
growth means more energy, so energy security is moving up the political agenda. Geopolitics, bilateral
connections with other countries, diversification of supply sources, and various energy sources, both renewable
and non-renewable, are all part of energy security. India currently gets around half of its energy from local coal
 3

reserves, mainly in the form of electricity. However, coal production has peaked, and coal is unlikely to provide
half of India's energy in the future for this and other reasons. India's energy sector and policymakers will face
enormous pressures as the country continues to industrialize and urbanize. Energy consumption per capita is far
below the world average, and there are significant disparities in energy consumption and service quality within
states and between rural and urban areas. India's consumers are concerned about the affordability and reliability
of electricity supplies. Three fuels provide about 80% of India's energy needs: coal, oil, and solid biomass.
Coal has fueled the growth of electricity generation and industry, and it continues to be the most critical fuel in
the energy mix. Because of expanding vehicle ownership and use of road transportation, oil consumption and
imports have increased fast. Biomass, particularly fuelwood, accounts for a small but growing portion of the
energy mix, but it is still commonly used as cooking fuel. Despite recent achievements in expanding LPG
access in rural areas, six hundred sixty million Indians have not entirely shifted to modern, clean cooking fuels
or technology.[6]

1.5 Methodology
The energy security index's reliability component examines whether India can consistently receive enough
energy to suit its needs. "Reliably" also entails identifying the associated short- and long-term hazards, as well
as putting in place mitigating measures.

The energy security index's economics section assesses this economic viability, which signifies different
stakeholders. The affordability of the energy mix is critical for consumers. Suppliers/industry must determine
whether providing energy to citizens is economically viable, which can be determined by examining the
industry's returns on investments. For the government, economic viability entails a level of subsidy and import
costs that can be sustained. [17]

All citizens must have access to enough energy that is both affordable and sustainable. The energy security
index's access component measures India's capacity to deliver adequate modern power to its inhabitants. Even
the poorest people should be able to buy such energy sources. The energy security index's sustainability
component includes renewable energy in the overall energy mix, energy efficiency, and emission levels.

1.6 Index definition and components

Both top-down and bottom-up methodologies were used to generate the index. Based on knowledge of the
issues that India's energy sector's issues, a top-down definition of energy security and its four elements were
developed. The index and sub-index values were normalized to 100 and reported as a percentage of the base-
year value. It assures that all citizens have access to reliable, economically feasible, and environmentally
friendly energy.

1.7 Index parameters

The index is comprised of 15 indicators that reflect the most pressing energy security concerns in India. From
publicly available data, all parameters may be estimated annually. Only if the index has a "realistic" target value
(including its constituent characteristics) would it help ensure that concentrated efforts are made to make India
more energy secure. For the sake of discussing a suitable value for various criteria, the year FY30 has been used
as a reference year. Some parameters, such as energy imports as a percentage of exports, energy subsidies as a
percentage of the government budget, the cost-effectiveness of India's primary energy mix, and energy
 4

affordability for lower-income sectors, were impossible to determine suitable amounts or ranges for.[6] This
was owing to the interaction of several exogenous factors. Just because India achieves a decent level on the
overall index does not mean it has reached a comfortable level of energy security—to be energy secure, India
must conduct a reasonable level on all four sub-indices and 15 characteristics.

All of the parameters' reasonable ranges were combined to provide the acceptable content for the four sub-
indices, which were then combined to form the excellent range for the overall index, which is 120. To achieve
this, a tremendous effort will be required across all four pillars of energy security.

1.8 India's performance on the index

Despite efforts on several fronts to ensure energy supply and boost access, India's energy security has
deteriorated during the previous decade. Higher global energy costs, a sluggish development of domestic
reserves, poor energy business profits, and excessive subsidies have all been significant obstacles. Lower oil
prices, more secure access to supply due to worldwide asset purchases by Indian firms, renewables growth, and
efforts to decrease subsidy burdens such as fuel price deregulation and direct benefits transfers have contributed
to a substantial positive trend in recent years. The availability of modern fuels and energy currently falls far
short of expectations. [17]

The share of renewables is negligible, and the carbon intensity of electricity increases as coal-fired power
becomes more prevalent. Although now within a tolerable range, the sub-indices of reliability and economics
have experienced the most reduction in recent years. These are vulnerable to future decreases due to rising
imports, insufficient expansion and development of domestic reserves, and bad energy company economics
(particularly power).
 5

2.CHALLENGES INDIA FACES IN ACHIEVING

ENERGY SECURITY
Energy security can be interpreted as the physical availability of supplies to satisfy energy demand at an
affordable price. Therefore threat to energy security involves a supply risk and a cost due to internal and
external factors. Long-term supply security requires an equilibrium between domestic and external energy
sources and technologies to minimize the risks. Energy security in India further depends on the affordability of
energy, so that expenditure on energy should not create difficulty for low-income households. The government
should carefully select the 'right energy mix' relying on a well-diversified portfolio of domestic or imported, or
regionally traded energy sources to minimize energy price volatility and supply energy at affordable prices. This
section highlights different issues in achieving energy security in India.

2.1 Demand Supply Gap

Short-term energy security centers on the capacity of the energy system to respond promptly to sudden
changes in the supply-demand balance. The gap in demand and supply represents the dependencies on imports
and thus increasing the financial load on the country's economy.

2.1.1 Coal

Demand for coal is rising every year; domestic production is also increasing, but the demand-supply gap is also
growing, as we can see in the following figure, causing the increase in 'import dependence' to meet the domestic
needs.

Figure 2.1 Demand Supply Gap for Coal,

Source:http://www.mospi.nic.in/sites/default/files/reports_and_publication/ES/Energy%20Statistics%20India%
202021.pdf
 6

2.1.2 Natural Gas

Demand for natural gas has been firmly growing over the years since it is a cleaner and cheaper fuel. Although
the supply of natural gas is also increasing due to development activities in the country, the availability of
natural gas is notably less than its demand. The following figure indicates the increasing demand-supply gap for
natural gas in the country.

Figure 2.2 Demand Supply for Natural gas Figures in a million metric standard cubic meters per day
(MMSCMD). Source: Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board

2.2 Import dependency

It is essential to estimate the extent of imports, which could be supported by the country's incomes earned
through exports and taxes. In the following diagram, we can see a high import dependence for Crude Oil
followed by Natural Gas and coal. The indicators relating to threats to energy security highlights the
vulnerability of the Indian economy to the rise in energy prices and the energy supply insecurity. There has
been an abrupt increase in the demand-supply gap for energy fuels and the consequent rise in the import
dependence for the energy fuels, as high as 71% for crude oil. It indicates the country's increased reliance on
other countries for meeting its crude oil requirement. Such a scenario raises concerns over the regular supply of
energy fuel. It also makes the country venerable to the energy fuel price that the exporting government may
demand. This makes the country dependent on the international price of energy fuels, which are unpredictable.
Moreover, the large imports of energy fuels create a financial burden on the Indian economy, which
subsequently impacts the energy prices within the country.
 7

Figure 2.3 India production and imports of coal, crude oil, and natural
gas Source: iea.li/india-outlook2021

2.3 Production to Reserves Ratio

Coal
According to B.P. Statistics, India's current coal reserves are about to last for about 207 years. However,
according to the Integrated Energy Policy 2006, the proven reserves of coal at the current consumption rate will
last for only 80 years. Moreover, if domestic coal production grows at 5% per year, the total extractable coal
reserves will only run out in 45 years. This creates serious energy security concerns relating to the availability
of coal in the near future because coal is the backbone of the Indian energy sector. This, coupled with
increasing import dependence, puts an immense energy security issue in front, which needs to be tackled
earliest.

Oil
At the current crude oil production level, indigenous crude oil reserves are expected to last for 24 years 21.
However, if these reserves were to meet the total crude oil demand of the country, they would last for less than
seven years. This low reserves to production to reserve ratio calls for an urgent need to intensify domestic
exploration and development activities to explore new fields and increase the reserves base of the country.

Natural gas

Natural gas demand has been increasing continuously over the years. In order to keep up with demand, the
production of natural gas has also been stepped up. Even with increased production, it is expected that the
natural gas supply shall fall short of the projected demand. It is expected that with the current production rate
for natural gas, the domestic reserves for the same will last for 22 years from 201722.
 8

2.4 Energy Mix

Nowadays, coal fulfills 44% of India's principal energy demand, up from 33% in 2000. Coal has played an
essential role in India's economic growth while significantly contributing to air pollution and growing Green
House Gases emissions. Huge dependence on selective fuels, coal, and oil raises concerns about energy
security, particularly regarding the limited coal reserves in our country. Also, there are significant
environmental concerns associated with the extensive use of coal and oil.

Figure 2.4 Primary Energy Mix, Mtoe = a million tonnes of oil

equivalent. Source : iea.li/india-outlook2021

2.5 Accessibility to Clean Resources

A critical energy security concern in Indian households is the lack of provision of clean energy. In 2019
electricity reaches most of the households in India. In 2020, 660 million Indians remained without access to
modern or clean cooking. They rely entirely on traditional uses of biomass for cooking, which causes the
premature deaths of around 8,00,000 Indians every year due to household air pollution (Health Effects Institute,
2020); these deaths primarily include women and children. There are various government schemes like PAHAL
(Pratyaksh Hanstantrit Labh) and PMUY (Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana), which targets subsidized 80 million
LPG connections by 2020. A survey reveals that these people still use biomass for cooking because even after
LPG subsidy, biomatter is plentifully available at no or minimal cost for a significant number of households,
especially in rural India.
 9

Figure 2.5 Access to clean cooking and electricity in India

Source: www.iea.org/articles/defining‐energy‐access‐2020‐methodology.

2.6 Energy Poverty

Access to energy is an immense problem in our country, and major economic inequalities and large populations
are the leading causes of energy poverty. According to one census, 77 million households23 in India still use
kerosene for lighting, and after COVID-19, up to 40 million people with electricity connections cannot pay for
their electricity services (IEA, 2020).

2.7 External Challenges

● India's frail energy security is under relentless stress from its increasing dependency on imported oil 24,
regulatory uncertainty, international monopolies, and concealed natural gas pricing policies.
● Through diversification, India seeks to achieve its energy security, e.g., Indo-USA nuclear deal, Oil import
from the Middle East, etc. However, due to conflict among India's energy partners, e.g., the USA and Iran,
India has to reduce its oil import from Iran.
● Due to the difficult geographic location in South Asia, India faces a strategic challenge to meet its
energy needs.
● China's One Belt One Road initiative can give it an absolute advantage if any dispute happens between
countries by disrupting India's access to energy25.
 1

● Various pipeline projects like Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI), Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI),

Myanmar-Bangladesh-India (MBI)26,27,28 pipelines have run into numerous troubles due to regional tensions
and geopolitical considerations.

4. ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT TRENDS OF ENERGY

CONSUMPTION IN INDIA
The energy consumption for India is the third-largest in the world and is behind the U.S and China. The total
energy consumption for India for the year 2019 is 916 million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE), and the
distribution of the energy consumption is given in table1 below. All energy consumption values are root source
energy consumption values which include energy losses, transmission losses, source material wastages, etc.
Table 1. Energy consumption Distribution by Source in India [28]

Fuel Million tons of oil equivalent

coal 410
petroleum and other
liquids 233

biomass and waste 187

natural gas 53

hydroelectricity 13

nuclear 10

other renewable sources 10 Figure 1. Energy Sources of India [29]

As seen above, a vast majority of our energy is coming from non-renewable sources, and as these sources will
soon be depleted, if the same pattern of energy consumption remains, then we may face an energy crisis. Let us
see what the trend indicates in the graphs below.
 1

Figure 2. Energy demand and Supply Projections For India based on Current Trends [13]
Thus energy demand for the nation is projected to grow from 4,929 TWh/yr (423.82 MTOE) in the year 2012 to
17196 TWh/yr (1478.59 MTOE) in the year 2047. This is the energy that will be needed for the actual final
usage, excluding the energy losses, transmission losses, source material wastages, etc. The energy supply for the
nation, consequently, which will have to include all overhead energy losses, will have to rise from 7082 TWh/yr
(608.94 MTOE) in the year 2012 to 24,130 TWh/yr (2074.80 MTOE) in the year 2047. The important data
point when it comes to the energy security analysis is the energy supply. Based on this trend, India will become
dependent on external fossil fuel imports for meeting its energy demands [13]

Figure 3. Fossil Fuels Import dependence Projections for India over the years 2012-2047 [13]
 1

Thus the worrying trend here is that by 2047 India is projected to become dependent on imports for 41 percent
of its gas energy, 84 percent of its oil-derived energy, 60 percent of its coal-derived energy, and overall 55
percent of its overall energy supply. This is not good for the nation as it hinders our national energy security and
puts us in a vulnerable position geopolitically. A further study of the overall energy trend is done below.[13]

The sector-wise breakup of the energy demand for the year 2012 and the projected energy demand for the year
2047 based on the present trends are shown in Figure 3 below

Figure 4. Energy Demand Comparisons Between 2012 and 2047 as well as energy demand distribution by
source comparison| for 2012 and 2047 |As per Current Trends [13]

Thus the key takeaways from this data of 2012 and 2047 are that the energy demand for the industries in India
is projected to rise by the highest magnitude, which is 8060 TWh/yr (693.04 MTOE), which is 65.70 percent of
the overall rise in the energy demand. The second-highest rise in the energy demand is shown by the transport
sector, whose energy demand is projected to rise by 2046 TWh/yr (175.92 MTOE), which accounts for 16.68
percent of the total rise in energy demand. Thus these are the two sectors where policies that encourage
efficient and energy-saving technologies should be implemented as a priority as this is where most of the
energy demand comes from.[13]
The source breakup of the energy supply in the year 2012 and the projected source breakup of the energy supply
in the year 2047 based on present trends are captured in the following charts
 1

Figure 5. Energy Supply Comparisons Between 2012 and 2047 as well as energy supply distribution by
source comparison for 2012 and 2047 | As per Current Trends [13[

The key takeaway from this data from 2012 to 2047 is that the energy derived from coal is projected to rise by
the highest magnitude, which is 10088 TWh/yr (867.41 MTOE), which accounts for 59.17 percent of the total
rise in energy supply. The energy derived from oil is projected to rise by 3319 TWh/yr (285.38 MTOE), which
accounts for 19.47 percent of the total energy supply rise. The energy derived from natural gas is projected to
rise by 1442 TWh/yr (123.99 MTOE), which is 8.46 percent of the total energy supply rise. Energy supply
obtained from renewables is projected to rise by 1719 TWh/yr (147.81 MTOE), which accounts for 10.08
percent of the total energy supply rise. So what this tells us is that we need to try to mitigate our coal
dependence as a priority, followed by the oil used for energy. Coal is mostly used for power generation, and
policies encouraging nuclear and other renewable and clean energy should be implemented to progressively
reduce coal usage for energy generation. Oil is mostly used for transportation in the form of railways, vehicles,
or air travel, and alternative biofuels should have experimented with airplanes, and electric or hybrid vehicles
should be incentivized, and electric or natural gas-driven trains should be invested in and operated on a large
scale so as to reduce our energy dependence on imports of oil and coal. [13]
 1

5. STUDY OF ENERGY POLICIES AND THEIR FUTURE

IMPLICATIONS
When we analyze these trends, we see that the direction where India is going is not good for the energy security
of the nation, and there is the need for serious policymaking to alter this trend and make India an energy secure
nation. The government has taken many steps in view of the worrying projections, some of which are analyzed
below.

5.1. Moving towards electricity-driven vehicles

India is aiming to shift to electric vehicles over the next two decades. We have companies like Ola Electric Pvt.
Ltd, Ather Energy Pvt. Ltd and Okinawa Autotech Pvt. Ltd, which has committed to invest significantly in the
electric vehicle market of India. Most of these investments are aimed at boosting electric vehicle manufacture
and sales in the country. The main electric vehicles to be sold in the Indian markets are buses, 2 and 3 small
wheeled vehicles, and four-wheeler passenger cars. The main motive of this move towards electric vehicles is to
reduce crude oil imports and thus save money in the energy sector so as to invest this in research and
development of the renewable energy sector in India. Now, if we see the data for the electric vehicle market in
the country, we see that there is a huge lack of infrastructure, and an investment of 180 billion dollars is needed
so as to put in place charging stations, battery manufacturing units, repair and service centers, etc. The
government is allowing 100 percent private investment and ownership for companies investing in the market.
There are schemes like FAME II which are making E.V.s more affordable. Electric vehicle sales are projected
to grow at 36 percent by 2026, and for simplicity, let us analyze the impact of E.V.s on the energy sector
assuming a CAGR of 30 percent. [18],[19],[24],[9]

Table 2. Rudimentary Analysis of Operation of E.V. and cumulative imported cost savings by E.V.
implementation as per the current trends and currently projected rates. [18],[19],[24],[9]

Thus we can see that the government will save massively on imports even with the present trends in the electric
vehicles market. This estimate of the gains is also likely an underestimate as there will be a lot more electric
 1

vehicles sold in India over the next two decades, and with the government incentives bringing in massive
private investment, the assumption is that the initial capital cost of the electric vehicle is covered on the whole
by the private investment and with the duties that the government collects from these companies we can assume
that the country, in general, is not losing money and the net profit amount that the companies gain is
insignificant compared to the savings that the government is making on imports. So this is why capital costs
have not been analyzed, and running costs are higher when it comes to government savings. Now crude oil
imports of the nation for 2019 are worth 102 billion dollars [25], and the E.V. implementation at the current
rate is not going to impact our overall dependence on the crude oil as the growth rate of the E.V. sector in the
nation is quite low and does not impact significant sections of the transport sector, which mostly uses the crude
oil imports. But this does not mean that the electric vehicle push is insignificant as it is saving the government
significant import revenues and, if utilized efficiently and in a centralized manner, can promote significant
research and development in the renewable energy sector in the country, which is low on funding

5.2. Acquiring stable energy assets in other nations and investing in exploring, developing, and
using such energy assets on home soil

As mentioned, India will remain dependent on oil for the transportation sector for the next 30-40 years, and we
have to make sure that this oil energy supply is reliable and non-volatile in its price and magnitude. For this,
India needs to follow three strategies in tandem. Firstly, we need to diversify our oil sources. Most of our oil is
imported (80%), and 80 % of this imported oil comes from unstable regions. Fifty-eight percent comes from the
middle east, which is notoriously unstable and rife with conflicts and terrorism. Twenty-two percent is coming
from Nigeria and Venezuela, which are unstable nations. So we need to start buying our oil from countries that
are stable and where there are large reservoirs of oil like the U.S, Russia, and Canada. At present, we are
importing only one percent of our oil from these nations. India needs to buy more oil from these stable
countries. Secondly, India needs to analyze foreign stock markets and look for the companies which are not
performing well. This occurs when the oil prices are low. India needs to invest money in buying oil and gas
fields of these companies. This will allow India to bypass the variations in the oil prices to a large extent. We
also need to buy the assets in the countries where the return on the investment is the most likely, which again
are Canada, Russia, and the U.S with their large supply of shale oil. The South American and African countries
do not respect the ownership of external countries on their assets, and so energy assets should not be bought
there. The third strategy for India is to hedge the oil prices of the oil that it may own in other countries or maybe
buying from other nations. Essentially this is like an investment where for some little periodic payments by
India, India will gain the right to buy oil from a given country at a price decided at the start of the hedging
process, but this will not be binding, and India can buy oil from other sources at cheaper rates. This allows a
ceiling to be set on the oil price that India will have to pay.[3],[4]

India remains heavily reliant on coal for its electricity generation (80 % from coal), steel and cement
production. India has massive coal reserves of 107.73 billion tons, but the production is only 870 MT of coal,
and due to the increasing demand, 274 MT of coal was imported in 2019, and these imports are only expected
to grow. These imports consist of high-quality factory-grade and high carbon coal and come from U.S,
Madagascar, and Indonesia and are vulnerable to price fluctuations and political changes in these nations as
well as the security threat from China which can lead to stoppage of these vital imports. There is a need to boost
Indian coal production, and for this, privatization of the coal sector is needed, which has recently been done in
April 2020. This will allow the coal operations to be operated in a more efficient manner because the
government monopoly company CIL has been mismanaging the coal sector, and private players with a good
regulator will improve efficiency. The issues plaguing the coal sector are lack of incentive for innovation and
boosting production, corruption, and mismanagement of money, lack of quick and efficient rail transport
leading to piling of coal at source, which leads to quality reduction and contamination, and lastly, as land and
forestry come under the concurrent list of the Indian constitution, there are a lot of bureaucratic permissions,
 1

processes, and approvals which are needed before any expansion or changes are done to the coal mines or when
a new coal mine is proposed to be opened. This big process thus works to discourage improved production
from the coal mines, and this process must be centralized and made quicker and less bureaucratic. Other
inefficiencies will be solved in the long run by privatization, and this will allow us to mine good quality coal
and increase our coal production through the expansion in mining through more investment which will help us
achieve coal independence, thus improving our energy security scenario. [12],[21]

Natural gas is a good alternative to coal and oil as it can be used to generate power as well as be used in the
transportation sector as the fuel in the form of compressed natural gas (CNG). India has 1 % of its vehicles
running on CNG, and 10 % of the power is generated from natural gas-fired power plants, but most of these
plants remain in-operational due to the crippling shortage of natural gas in the Indian markets. India is reliant on
imports for 25 percent of its natural gas requirements, and this percentage will only get worse with time as per
the current trend. India has massive natural gas reserves, which include 541 BCM of onshore extractable
reserves in Gujurat and Assam and offshore reserves of 190 BCM in the Bay of Cambay and 190 BCM in the
Bombay high area. There are also numerous reported but un-explored gas fields all over the country, like the
400 BCM field in Tripura and the 1700 BCM fields in the Andaman and Nicobar islands. But India is still being
forced to import gas from outside because the rate of extraction is not high enough for the increasing demands
for the nation, and there is a lack of infrastructure, and also there are inefficiencies in the management of the
public sector monopoly holder ONGC. The government has to make India part of the multi-national pipeline
projects like TAPI, which will ensure that the gas supply is secure and neighboring nations will not jeopardize
the projects as they are also benefitting. India also needs to invest in the exploration and subsequent process of
making all these offshore gas fields operational, and the government needs to bring in the private players in the
exploration process as this will improve the speed and the efficiency of the operation. [4],[15]

Let us see the implications of the implementation of these technologies. Firstly, we see that there will be no
significant variation in the oil imports. But based on the current trends, assuming current technologies, we
assume that the gas production goes up from the current 31.18 BCM to 127 BCM in 2047 and gas power
production grows from 24.51 GW currently to 50.2 GW in 2047 and that coal production goes up from 870 MT
to 1157 GW in 2047 and installed capacity becomes 379 GW in 2047 from 74 G.W. currently with marginal
efficiency improvement and supercritical technology implementation.

Figure 6. Projected India energy import scenarios based on current trends.[13]

This leads to the projection that India remains dependent on coal and gas imports. 41 % of gas is imported, and
60 % of coal will also be imported, and we will be importing 13,375 TWh/yr of energy and spending 30 trillion
INR/yr on energy imports, which will hamper the economy and is not good for the energy security of the
nation.
 1

Now, if the above-mentioned policies are implemented efficiently, we assume that the gas production goes up
from the current 31.18 BCM to 224 BCM in 2047 and gas power production grows from 24.51 GW currently to
83 G.W. in 2047 and that coal production goes up from 870 MT to 1602 GW in 2047 and installed capacity
becomes 464 GW in 2047 from 74 G.W. currently with efficiency improvements and ultra-supercritical
technology, IGCC and other technologies being efficiently implemented.

Figure 7. Projected India energy import scenarios Assuming that There is an efficient implementation of stable
energy asset acquisition and indigenous fossil fuel energy asset development [13]

This yields the projection that India will only import 13 % of its natural gas and 40 % of the coal, and our
energy imports will be 11,483 TWh/yr, but the imported energy cost is higher than the earlier projection at 32
trillion INR, and the reason is for implementing more efficient technologies and boosting coal and gas
production we will need to import more oil for these operations. But these policy shifts will help us generate our
energy in a cleaner and less polluting way and also improve our overall energy security situation and energy
imports, and so they should be implemented in the nation.

5.3. Pushing for renewable energy sources and clean technology

India has pledged in the Paris climate accord that it will produce 40 percent of its electricity from non-fossil
sources and also has pledged that it will have 175 GW by 2022 and 450 GW by 2030 of its total installed
capacity attributed to renewable energy sources. The key sources are hydroelectric power, solar power, wind
power, and nuclear power. [16]
5.3.1. Hydroelectric power

India currently has an installed hydropower capacity of 50 G.W. with large hydroelectric power plants
accounting for 46 G.W. and the small hydroelectric power plants accounting for 4 G.W. of hydropower installed
capacity. India also imports surplus hydropower from Bhutan and Nepal and has done hydropower projects for
Afghanistan, Bhutan, and Nepal. India has a Hydropower potential of 145.32 GW, but there are widespread
delays due to land acquisition and resettlement, contractual conflicts, slackening of work rate, and lack of the
development of supporting infrastructure, which has caused very slow growth in the hydropower generation in
the country. The government has given hydropower renewable energy status, and thus future projects will
benefit from the renewable energy purchase scheme; and also, the tariffs on hydropower have been revised to
make them more economically viable. The government has also fast-tracked schemes and project clearances,
the most significant one being the 50 G.W. hydroelectric initiative. There is a need for more privatization in this
sector as well as more investment in the hydroelectric potential of states like Arunachal Pradesh and
Uttarakhand, as well as neighboring nations like Nepal and Sri Lanka. [7],[8]
 1

5.3.2. Solar power

India is one of the founding members of the international solar alliance and has invested massively in solar
technology research and development, and the solar power installed capacity has gone up from 10 M.W. in
2010 to 44.3 GW currently. There have also been many government schemes that have brought about this boom
in solar energy, notable among them being encouraging storage technology investments and providing subsidies
to the solar component manufacturers and investing in the outreach of the rooftop and decentralized solar
power. This trend of growth in the solar power sector is set to grow as the energy storage technology improves
and solar power becomes more reliable, with the government target being 100 GW capacity by 2022, and this
should be accelerated to provide energy security to the nation.[5]

5.3.3. wind energy and biomass energy

Wind energy capacity in India currently is 48.56 GW, and there is massive potential in the growth of this
energy sector as India has offshore wind energy potential of 70 G.W., but this needs massive investment for
development, but there is not much government support for wind 0ower in recent years, and thus land
acquisition problems have occurred, but the sector has grown significantly due to privatization which has
caused efficient development and operation of the wind energy assets, and with more government support this
sector can grow and help in achieving the Paris climate accord targets. Biomass energy in India is mostly the
energy that is used for cooking purposes in rural areas and comes from wood. This is unsustainable, and there
have been schemes like the Ujjwala Yojana were implemented to reduce biomass usage for cooking purposes.
India has the potential to produce 18 G.W. of power from biomass, but currently, only 10 G.W. of projects have
been set up in the country, and central funding assistance has been given to the biomass industry, and this will
result in more output from this sector. [10],[11]
5.3.4. Nuclear power

Nuclear energy produces 43 TWh of electricity in India currently, and the capacity is 7.48 GW, but there is a
high growth rate of the nuclear sector in India, and the government target is to achieve 63 G.W. of capacity by
2030, but it has admitted that there will only be 25 G.W. of nuclear power capacity in India by 2030. India has
also projected that by 2050 India will produce 30 percent of its total electricity from thorium power plants using
liquid fluoride thorium reactors, which are meltdown proof and the process produces significantly less highly
radioactive waste than conventional uranium-based reactors, and there is also safer mining and reactor operation
are more efficient and cheaper. Also, India has the largest proven thorium reserves in the world, and in view of
long-term energy security, India should move towards thorium-based nuclear power.[30]

5.3.5. Net results of these policies.

When we analyze the data, we see that there will be major growth in offshore wind and solar power while
moderate growth will be there in hydroelectric power, and nuclear power will see massive growth. Using these
broad assumptions, we project that solar power capacity by 2047 in the nation goes to 479 GW, while wind
power becomes 202 GW while offshore wind will become 62 G.W. in 2047. Hydropower shows moderate
growth and is projected to become 125 GW in 2047. Nuclear energy grows and is projected to have 78 G.W.
installed capacity in 2047. This will 8imply that the energy profile of the nation will have a significant share of
renewables.
 1

Figure 8. Energy supply distribution comparison by sources between 2012 and 2047 with individual source
energy values assuming renewable energy push is successful.[13]

Thus India will produce large quantities of energy from non-fossil fuel sources and thus will meet its Paris
climate Accord agreements.

6. CONCLUSION
India needs to remodel its energy sector to achieve long-term energy security. There is a need to invest more in
solar and nuclear energy as they are reliable and can be scaled up to meet the energy needs of the nation. Wind
energy is erratic and should not be heavily invested in. There is a need to invest in energy assets in other nations
and to move away from coal and oil and move towards natural gas. There needs to be more privatization of the
energy sector in the country to increase research and development in new and efficient technologies. Despite
common perception, nuclear energy is the way forward for the country, and thorium power plants have to be
commissioned at a faster rate and in higher numbers. Energy security also depends on the transmission losses
and the theft factor, and there has to be more policing and monitoring of the power lines so that theft is
prevented. For energy security, the best way is to provide solar power to rural areas so that they can have access
to electricity as laying and maintaining power lines is expensive. Government effort and policy implementation
and regulation will determine how the energy security scenario develops in the country over the next three
decades, and these can be represented in the data below. Each path has its own advantages and disadvantages,
and thus a balanced approach is needed.
2

Figure 9. A comparison of energy demand and supply, as well as import dependence projections for the period
2012 to 2047 for various ends, result policy implementation scenarios like the heroic effort from government,
aggressive effort, and maximum priority and implementation of clean energy and renewables in the country.
[13]

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AUTHORS
First Author – Priyanshu Meshram, 19D180021, [email protected]
Second Author – Saharsh, 19D180027, [email protected]
Third Author – Aadarsh Dwivedi, 19D180001, [email protected]

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