Mos CH 6
Mos CH 6
Chapter
Introduction
Technology has always had a profound impact on all operations, and with the emer-
gence of powerful new technologies this impact is becoming even more significant.
These new technologies can emerge because of the ‘push’ or ‘supply’ of new knowledge,
or the ‘pull’ from the ‘demand’ from market opportunities. Yet, despite a widespread
acceptance of its significance, strategic analysis too often treats it as a ‘black box’ – fit
only for technical experts. However, all operations need to understand the analytical
dimensions for identifying the technical, managerial and ‘operations strategy’ charac-
teristics of technology. This is an essential prerequisite for deciding ‘what’ technologi-
cal options to explore. Operations managers need to clarify ‘what’ technology options
exist, ‘why’ potential investments in process technology investments can give strategic
advantage, and explore ‘how’ managers can make such investments work in practice.
The risks associated with implementation are particularly important given the number
of high-profile failures and claims of waste that seem to go hand-in-hand with such
investments See figure 6.1.
Resource usage
Issues include:
Quality Characterising process Market competitiveness
Performance objectives
technologies
Speed Understanding the general
characteristics of process
technologies over time
Dependability The effect of new forms of
technology on performance
Flexibility Evaluating process technology
The impact of process
technology on performance
Cost objectives
Development
Supply Process technology
Capacity and
network strategy
organisation
Decision areas
K ey Qu e st ions
● What is process technology strategy?
● What are suitable dimensions for characterising process technology?
● How do market volume and variety influence process technology?
● What are some of the challenges of information technology?
● How can process technology be evaluated strategically?
Steam, produced by
burning bio-gas, The methane in 'bio-gas' is
provides power for the supplied to the site boiler
factory. It heats the house where it is burnt to
product stream and produce steam.
lowers evaporator
pressure.
18,000 tonnes of solidified Marmite deposit is left adhering to the surfaces of the machines and
handling equipment that are used to produce the product. For years this residue was cleaned off
and then either flushed into the sewerage system or sent to landfill sites. Then Unilever installed
an anaerobic digester. This is a composter that uses the waste by-product where it is digested,
eaten by microbes that feed on the waste. As they do, they release methane that is burned in a
boiler that is connected to a generator that produces power. The system also captures the waste
heat that comes through the exhaust and helps to heat the factory’s water system. See Figure 6.2.
But the Marmite example is just one part of Unilever’s ‘Sustainable Living Plan’, first published
in 2010. Since then it has published an update every year on the progress it is making globally
and nationally towards meeting its Sustainable Living Plan targets.
Operations managers cannot avoid involvement with process technologies. They work
with them on a day-by-day basis and should also be able to articulate how technology
can improve operational effectiveness. Other functional areas will, of course, also be
involved, such as engineering/technical, accountancy and human resources. Yet it is
operations that must act as ‘impresario’ for other functional areas’ contributions, and
that is likely to take responsibility for implementation. And to carry out their ‘impre-
sario role’, operations should have a grasp of the technical nature of process technolo-
gies. This does not necessarily mean that operations managers need to be experts in
engineering, computing, biology, electronics, or whatever is the core science behind
the technology, but they need to know enough about the technology to be comfort-
able in evaluating technical information, and be able to ask relevant questions of the
technical experts. These questions include the following:
● What does the technology do that is different from other similar technologies?
● How does it do it?
● What constraint does using the technology place on the operation?
● What skills will be required from the operations staff in order to install, operate and
maintain the technology?
● What capacity does each unit of technology have?
● What is the expected useful lifetime of the technology?
Market developments
Products/services
Technologies
Capabilities
Business goals p
d relationshi
Elements of Timing of, an ents of
Projects n th e el em
betwee
technology For example technology
planning
planning Process developments
Knowledge enablers
Intellectual resources
Decision points
External events, e.g. competitor activity
Time
Figure 6.4 Simplified example of a technology road map for the development of
products/services, technologies and processes for a facilities management service
Transfer knowledge
to divisions
Products/
services
Establish client
develop-
ERP integration
Process
ments
Time
Similarly, the costs of installing and supporting the technology are likely to be lower
per unit of output. Likewise, operating (as opposed to capital) costs per unit are often
lower on larger machines, the fixed costs of operating the plant being spread over a
higher volume.
● Can the process technology match demand over time? As discussed in Chapter 4, there
is a traditional trade-off between large increments of capacity exploiting economies
of scale but potentially resulting in a mismatch between capacity and demand, and
smaller increments of capacity with a closer match between capacity and demand
but fewer economies of scale. The same argument clearly applies to the units of
process technology that make up that capacity. Also, larger increments of capacity
(and therefore large units of process technology) are difficult to stream on and off if
demand is uncertain or dynamic. Small units of process technology with the same
or similar processing costs as larger pieces of equipment would reduce the poten-
tial risks of investing in the process technology. This is why efficient but smaller-
scale technologies are being developed in many industries. Even in industries where
received wisdom has always been that large scale is economic (i.e. the steel and elec-
tricity generation), smaller, more flexible operations are increasingly amongst the
most profitable.
● How vulnerable is the operation? Building an operation around a single large machine
introduces greater exposure to the risk of failure. Suppose that the choice is between
setting up a mail sorting operation with ten smaller or one very large machine. If
there is a single machine failure, then the operation with ten machines is more
robust, as 90 per cent of the mail can still be sorted. In the large-scale machine opera-
tion, no mail can be sorted.
● What scope exists for exploiting new technological developments? Many forms of process
technology are advancing at a rapid rate. This poses a threat to the useful life of
large units of technology. If an operation commits substantial investment to a few
large pieces of equipment, it changes them only infrequently and the opportuni-
ties for trying out new ideas are somewhat limited. Having a broader range of dif-
ferent technological options (albeit each of a smaller scale) makes it easier to take
advantage of new developments – providing the operation can cope with potential
inconsistencies.
to extreme customer dissatisfaction. (It is worth reflecting at this point on your own
experience of trying to connect to and use a very busy website.) Conversely, too much
technology means excess invested capital to service too few customers.
Scalability, however, does depend on the ability of IT systems to work together.
Upgrading the functionality (what it can do) of an IT system is usually a matter of
evolution rather than revolution. Sometimes totally separate and only partially con-
nected systems are installed alongside existing ones. So, some IT systems finish up with
patched and inconsistent system architectures. This does not mean that they are in
themselves inefficient. However, it does make them difficult to scale up because they
do not fit conveniently with other units of technology. Thus, the underlying consist-
ency and stability of an IT platform’s architecture is an important determinant of its
scalability. Also, a more stable platform often will have support staff who have devel-
oped a greater depth of expertise. Similarly, if IT is stable and standardised, one of the
possible reasons for changing a process is removed. It is partly because of these issues
that many organisations have adopted ‘off-the-shelf’ internal business process man-
agement systems, such as enterprise resource planning (ERP). Indeed, many adopters
of ERP systems have chosen to change their business processes to match the IT, rather
than the other way around.
Example Go figure2
It was a significant event in the development of artificial intelligence (AI). Between 9 and 15
March 2016 a five-game match was played in the South Korean capital Seoul between arguably
the best professional ‘Go’ player called Lee Sedol and AlphaGo, a computer Go program devel-
oped by Google DeepMind. AlphaGo won the contest by 4 games to 1. Some commentators
saw the event as a continuation of the ‘man versus machine’ chess battles that started when
chess master Garry Kasparov lost to a computer named Deep Blue in a six-game match played
in 1997. In fact, games like chess really are a handy way to gauge a computer’s evolution towards
genuine artificial intelligence. Which is where Go comes in. Although seemingly simple, it is
a far more complex game than chess. Played all over East Asia, it is particularly popular with AI
researchers, in particular, for whom the idea of truly mastering ‘Go’ has become something of
an obsession. Why? Because compared with Go, teaching computers to master chess is easy. The
size of a Go board means that the number of games that can be played on it is colossal: probably
around 10170, which is almost a hundred of orders of magnitude greater than the number of
atoms in the observable universe (estimated to be around 1080). As one of DeepMind’s creators,
Dr Demis Hassabis points out; simply using raw computing power cannot master Go. Much
more than chess, Go involves recognising patterns that result from groups of stones surround-
ing empty spaces. Players can refer to seemingly vague notions such as ‘light’ and ‘heavy’ pat-
terns of stones. ‘Professional Go players talk a lot about general principles, or even intuition,’
says, Dr Hassabis, ‘whereas if you talk to professional chess players they can often do a much
better job of explaining exactly why they made a specific move.’
However, ideas such as ‘intuition’ are much harder to describe algorithmically than the
formal rules of any game. Which is why, before AlphaGo was developed; the best GO programs
were little better than a skilled amateur. The breakthrough of AlphaGo was to combine some
of the same ideas as the older programs with new approaches that focused on how the com-
puter could develop its own ‘instinct’ about the best moves to play. It uses a technique that
its makers have called ‘deep learning’ that allows the computer to develop an understanding
of the instinctive rules of the game that experienced players can understand but cannot fully
explain. It develops this leaning by playing games against itself (or a slightly different version
of itself) and analysing the vast amounts of data to sort out these ‘intuitive’ rules. However,
as well as masses of data ‘deep learning’ also requires plenty of processing power. Yet it is the
‘deep learning’ that was being seen as the exciting development that would lead to further
applications. Such an approach could help computers to do complex tasks like accurate face
recognition or translate subtleties of meaning from one language to another. But, although
the techniques used by AlphaGo is an important step in the progress to, what in Dr Hassabis’s
view, is the ‘same sort of broad, fluid intelligence as a human being’, they still lack some of
the abilities that humans take for granted. Arguably the most important of these is the ability
to apply lessons learned in one situation in another, what AI researchers call ‘reasoning by
analogy’ or ‘transfer learning’.
about the balance between people and technology. The choice is often between empha-
sising the power, speed and general physical abilities of automation against the flexible,
intuitive and analytical abilities of human beings. However, an increasing number of
purely information transformation processes are entirely automated (including most
processing technology in the financial services sector, for instance). We need a different
metric to differentiate between different information processing technologies that are
100 per cent ‘automated’, or very close to it.
altered the way they manage their buying process. Connected IT systems allow many
suppliers access to a common data portal that gives real-time information about how
products are selling in all stores. Such systems enable the supply companies to modify
their production schedules in order to meet demand more precisely and ensure fewer
stock-outs. Here the defining technological characteristic associated with platform
independence is not coupling in the classic sense of integration, but rather a greater
degree of connectivity.
The issues connected with connectivity are similar to those concerned with scalabil-
ity and analytical content. Low connectivity is often associated with idiosyncratically
designed, bespoke and ‘legacy’ IT systems. Often such systems come with restricted
opportunities for the access that is a prerequisite to connectivity. High-connectivity
technologies, on the other hand, are usually based on the platform independence dis-
cussed above and have the bandwidth capacity to enable rich communications. Some-
times, however, their very openness and easy access can give security concerns. Much
new technology, although offering wonderful levels of connectivity, creates new oppor-
tunities for fraud, ‘denial of service’ attacks and so on. Two key drivers have allowed
‘connectivity’ to develop at such a phenomenal rate.
1 Hardware development – Client/server systems (initially promoted as a less costly
replacement for mainframe technology) have permitted the separation of user inter-
faces, processing applications and data sources. This has encouraged the develop-
ment of interconnection technology, including software protocols and connection
technology (such as bandwidth enhancement).
2 Software development – Arguably, the distinguishing feature of the development of
the World Wide Web has been the adoption of a universal browser interface, which
has considerably expanded the potential for connectivity.
being displaced by technology. The obvious examples of work that is difficult to automate are
the type of management tasks that involve decision making based on judgement and insight –
teaching small children, diagnosing complex medical conditions and so on. However, the future
may hold a less certain future for such jobs. As the convenience of data collection and analysis
becomes more sophisticated, and process knowledge increases, it becomes easier to break more
types of work down into routine constituents, which allows them to be automated. Carl Benedikt
Frey and Michael Osborne, of the University of Oxford, maintain that the range of jobs that are
likely to be automated is far higher than many assume, especially traditionally white-collar jobs
such as accountancy, legal work, technical writing and (even) teaching. It is not simply that tech-
nology is getting cleverer; in addition it can exploit the capability to access far more data. Medi-
cal samples can be analysed cheaper and faster by image-processing software than by laboratory
technicians, case precedents can be sourced by ‘text-mining’ programs more extensively than
by paralegals and computers can even turn out new stories based on sports results or financial
data. Frey and Osborne go so far as to estimate the probability that technology will mean job
losses for certain jobs in the next two decades (bravely, because such forecasting is notoriously
difficult). Amongst jobs most at risk are telemarketers (0.99, where 1.0 = certainty), accountants
and auditors (0.94), retail salespersons (0.92), technical writers (0.89) and retail estate agents
(0.86). Those jobs least likely to be replaced include actors (0.37), firefighters (0.17), editors (0.06),
chemical engineers (0.02), athletic trainers (0.007) and dentists (0.004).
Figure 6.5 The three dimensions of process technology are often closely linked
HIGH LOW
SCALE
Few, large Many,
units of small units
technology of technology
Flexibility
performance
Cost
performance
High flexibility
A Redundant capability
High costs
Automation
Flexibility
Coupling
Scale
High costs
Figure 6.7 Market pressures are requiring operations to be both flexible and low cost
Competitive
pressure to
reduce costs
High
Traditional trade- The need to
off ‘diagonal’ overcome the
between cost traditional cost–
and flexibility flexibility trade-off
Flexibility
and achieve high
levels of performance
in both
Market
Low
fragmentation
making
High Cost Low flexibility
more
valuable
fully embraced process technology, albeit in new IT-rich forms. Indeed it is increasingly
difficult to overstate the impact that information technology is having upon organi-
sational life. There is almost no sphere of operations where computing technology in
one form or another has not had a substantial impact.
Figure 6.8 New developments in process technology can change the cost–
flexibility trade-off
High
Analytical content
Connectivity
Automation
Scalability
Flexibility
Coupling
Scale
Low
little flexibility. This made them suitable for high-volume, low-variety processes. If
process requirements were for high variety but low volume, process technology is
likely to consist of smaller separated units with relatively little automation.
● Trends in the development of each dimension of process technology, especially those
related to their increasing richness in information processing, are overcoming some
of the traditional trade-offs within each dimension. In particular, technology with
high levels of scalability can give the advantages of flexible, small-scale technology
and yet be quickly expanded if demand warranted it. Similarly, even high-volume
information processing technology can still display the relatively high analytical
content at one time reserved for more manual processes. Finally, technology with
high connectivity can integrate processes without the rigidity once associated with
high coupling.
● Market trends are themselves calling for simultaneously high performance in both
cost and flexibility. No longer is it acceptable to suffer high costs if flexibility is
demanded by the market, nor operations rigidity if costs need to be kept low. As far as
market requirements are concerned, the ideal area in the traditional product–process
matrix is one that delivers both low cost and high flexibility.
This is why information processing technology has had such an impact in so many
industries. In effect it has partially overcome some of the traditional trade-offs in
choosing process technology. But note the words ‘partially’ and ‘some’. There are still
trade-offs within technology choice, even if they are not as obvious as they were once.
Moreover, information processing and computing power has undoubtedly had a major
impact on almost all technologies but there are still limits to what computers can do.
held for the benefit of other parts of the business, thereby improving both the com-
munication and the effectiveness of the systems as a whole. However, this obvious and
seemingly straightforward idea is, in practice, hugely complex and expensive to adopt.
And that is what ERP has become known for: its high cost and difficult implementa-
tion. Some large corporations are reported as having spent hundreds of millions of
Euros on their ERP systems. Even medium-sized companies can easily spend hundreds
of thousands of Euros. And although some authorities claim that even successfully
implemented ERP systems will never offer any significant return on their investment,
others argue that ERP was simply one of those things that any large company had to
invest in simply to keep pace with its customers, suppliers and competitors.6
What is ERP?
One of the most important issues in resource planning and control is managing the,
sometimes vast, amounts of information generated from all functions of the business.
So, unless all relevant information is brought together and integrated it is difficult to
make informed planning and control decisions. This is what ERP is about. It is often
described as a complete enterprise-wide business solution that integrates the planning,
resource allocation and control activities of all parts of the business. The intent is that
all transaction information is entered into the system at its source and done only once.
Consider, for instance, a manufacturing firm receiving an order for a product. The trans-
action is entered into the system and the data is then sent to the master database, which
accesses and updates the other business processes. For example, the finance process is
instructed to raise an invoice, the sales and marketing processes are advised of sales
and customer information and the production process triggers the manufacturing etc.
If the system does not have its own scheduling software, it can (to varying degrees) be
integrated with pre-existing packages (see Figure 6.9).
Arguably the most significant issue in many company’s decision to buy an off-the-shelf
ERP system is that of its compatibility with the company’s current business processes
and practices. Experience of ERP installation suggests that it is extremely important
to make sure that the current way of doing business will fit (or can be changed to fit)
Strategic
Financial
reporting
applications
applications Sales and
marketing
Operations applications
applications
Front-office
Back-office
Delivery and
Integrated
staff
staff
with a standard ERP package. If a business’s current processes do not fit, they can either
change their processes to fit the ERP package, or modify the software within the ERP
package to fit their processes. However, both of these options involve costs and risks.
Changing business practices that are working well will involve reorganisation costs as
well as introducing the potential for errors to creep into the processes. Adapting the
software will both slow down the project and introduce potentially dangerous software
‘bugs’ into the system. It would also make it difficult to upgrade the software later on.
Criticisms of ERP
Attempting to get new systems and databases to talk to old legacy systems can be very
problematic. Not surprisingly, many companies choose to replace most, if not all, of
their existing systems simultaneously. New common systems and relational databases
help to ensure the smooth transfer of data between different parts of the organisa-
tion. Therefore, ERP installation can be particularly expensive. In addition, there are
also considerable ‘adjustment costs’ associated with many of the implementations.
ERP implementations have developed a reputation for exceeding their budgets, with
200/300 per cent cost and time overruns being commonly cited for reasonably sized
installations. Yet, given that such systems are predicated on both substantial IT devel-
opment and process redesign work, it should not be surprising that costs and time-
frames proved to be larger and longer than predicted.
In addition to the obvious investment of time and effort, there is also the cost of
providing training in new ways of working. Given that old systems, procedures and
routines are being replaced in an ERP implementation, this retraining cost can be very
significant. During the retraining period there may also be an increased chance of staff
error that, combined with the novelty of the system, could cause further failures.
By definition, ERP systems are ‘enterprise wide’. This means that all parts of the enter-
prise must agree on a shared way of working (that coincides with the ERP system’s
underlying structure) and uniformly implement the system in the same way. There
are two important implications of this. First, getting all parts of the enterprise to agree
on a common business model is rarely straightforward, even supposing that the ERP
system’s business model is appropriate for the way the enterprise prefers to operate.
Second, because all parts of the enterprise are linked together, the whole business could
be held back by the ‘weakest link’. That is, inefficiency or incompetence in one part of
the enterprise may hold back the whole business.
Note that these disadvantages of ERP are not so much concerned with the funda-
mental logic of integrating enterprise-wide information systems. Rather, they are con-
cerned with the sheer difficulty of making it happen. This leads some authorities to
argue that the disadvantages of ERP systems are not really disadvantages. The question
is really whether any individual firm has the money, time and talent to exploit the
advantages of ERP.
customised services. Entrepreneurs are also finding applications well beyond finance, and these new
technologies could transform other fields, such as humanitarian aid.’ Yet, arguably, what is more sur-
prising is that this type of process technology was not embraced faster by the financial services
industry. As one commentator put it, ‘after all money is mostly represented as an entry on a com-
puter. It can be moved rapidly from one account to another with virtually no cost’. Moreover, finance
firms as a whole spend more on IT, as a proportion of their revenues, than any other sector.
Three issues have (at the time of writing) inhibited the adoption of new fintech process tech-
nologies. And they all could apply to any ‘disruptive’ and industry-wide process technologies.
The first is the traditional structure of the industry. According to Andrew Haldane, the Bank of
England’s chief economist, the international payments system still looks like a ‘spaghetti junc-
tion’, with money passing through several hands on the way from payer to recipient. Nor is it
necessarily in the existing firm’s interests to change the system. Each year huge revenues are
earned by processing payments (around $1.7 trillion). The second reason is ‘legacy’. IT systems
in banks have grown for the most part incrementally, with updates and modifications over
the years often ‘patched’ onto existing systems until a large part of firms’ annual technology
budget is consumed by maintaining, rather than re-designing, existing systems. The third issue
is risk. Understandably, financial services firms are very much concerned with the reliability of
any new technology, and new technologies are often unproven. A good example is distributed
ledger technology (DLT) – the ‘blockchain’ technology behind the Bitcoin, the digital cur-
rency. Although many technology experts regarded a distributed ledger as being more secure
(any hacker would have to crack several sites rather than a single, central register), doubts were
expressed over the technology’s ability to cope with the hundreds of thousands of transactions
every second that the financial system needed to process.
Evaluating feasibility
All process technology decisions have resource implications – even the decision to do
nothing liberates resources that would otherwise be used. In this context we are not just
talking about financial resources, which, although critical, are no help if, say, the tech-
nical skills necessary to design and implement a technology are not available. There-
fore, if the resources required to implement technology are greater than those that are
either available or can be obtained, the technology is not feasible. So, evaluating the
feasibility of an option means finding out how the various types of resource that the
option might need match up to what is available. Four broad questions are applicable.
What technical or human skills are required to implement the technology? Every process
technology will need a set of skills to be present within the organisation, so that it can
be successfully implemented. If new technology is very similar to that existing in the
organisation, it is likely that the necessary skills will already be present. If, however,
the technology is completely novel, it is necessary to identify the required skills and to
match these against those existing in the organisation.
What ‘quantity’ or ‘amount’ of resources is required to implement the technology? Deter-
mining the quantity of resources (people, facilities, space, time etc.) required for the
implementation of a technology is an important stage in assessing feasibility because
it is time dependent. Rarely will a lack of sufficient process engineers, for example, rule
out a particular process technology, but it could restrict when it is adopted. So, a firm
may deliberately choose to delay some of its process technology decisions because it
knows that its current commitments will not allow it. In order to assess this type of
feasibility, a company may compare the aggregate workload associated with its imple-
mentation over time with its existing capacity.
What are the funding or cash requirements? The previous two questions can be difficult
to answer in a meaningful way, but this does not diminish their significance. However,
in any real investment evaluation, one ‘feasibility’ factor will inevitably come to domi-
nate all other considerations – do we have enough money? Because of this significance
we will spend a little more time reviewing some of the many approaches that have been
developed to aid managers in their analysis of cash flow and funding requirements over
the lifetime of an investment project.
Can the operation cope with the degree of change in resource requirements? Even if all these
resource requirements can quite feasibly be obtained individually by the organisation,
the degree of change in the total resource position of the company might itself be
regarded as infeasible. Consider, for instance, a bespoke manufacturer of road-racing
bicycles being encouraged to leverage its reputation for high quality into the ‘top end’
of the mass cycle market (i.e. much higher volumes). This would require the firm to
make substantial investment in automated tube welding equipment. The firm is con-
fident that it will be able to obtain all the different categories of resource required for
the project. It believes that it can recruit the appropriate expertise in sufficient quantity
from the labour market. Furthermore, it believes that it could fund the project until it
broke even. Yet, in the final analysis, the company regards the investment as infeasible.
It decides that absorbing such a radical new process technology in a relatively short
time-frame would put too great a strain on its own capacity for self-organisation. Thus,
sometimes it is not the absolute level but rather the rate of change in resource require-
ments that renders a project infeasible.
Figure 6.11 Cash inflows, outflows and requirements up to the finish of the
project (€000s)
3,000
1,000
Start 12 24 36 48
Time (months) End
–1,000
Six-month periods 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Beginning cash
without financing 0 (1,050) (850) (820) (770) (470) 1,330 1,130 930
Ending cash
without financing (1,050) (850) (820) (770) (470) 1,330 1,130 930 2,630
All figures in €s
funding requirement of €1,050,000 occurs within the first eight months of the project,
and diminishes only slowly for two years. After that, the project enjoys a large net inflow
of cash. Of course, this analysis does not include the effects of interest payments on cash
borrowed. When it is decided how the cash is to be raised (i.e. borrowed from a bank or
private investor or raised from the equity markets), this can be included.
Evaluating acceptability
Evaluating acceptability can be done from many technical and managerial perspec-
tives. Here we limit our discussion to cover the financial perspective on evaluation and
the ‘market requirements’ and ‘operations resource’ perspectives. Figure 6.12 summa-
rises the different elements of our analysis.
Financial evaluation
accountant’s view is that the cost of something is whatever you had to pay to acquire
it originally. The economist, on the other hand, is more likely to define costs in terms
of the benefits forgone by not investing elsewhere: that is, the opportunity cost of the
technology. Thus, to the economist, the cost of investing in a process technology is
whatever could be gained by investing an equivalent sum in the best feasible alterna-
tive investment. While opportunity costing has obvious intuitive attractions, and is
particularly useful in process technology investments where alternative technologies
may bring very different benefits, it does depend on what we define as the best feasible
alternative use of our resources. The accountant’s model of acquisition cost is at least
stable – if we paid €1,000 for something, then its value is €1,000, irrespective of what-
ever alternative use we might dream up for the money.
include more than the immediate and obvious costs involved in a decision, and a life
cycle approach proves a useful reminder of this.
1
:100 * = :90.91
1.10
1 1 1
:100 * = :100 * = :82.65
(1.10) (1.10) (1.10)2
The rate of interest assumed (10 per cent in our case) is known as the discount rate.
More generally, the present value of €x in n years’ time, at a discount rate of r per cent is
x
(1 + r/100)n
and cost. The questions listed in Table 6.2 can help to provide a framework for assess-
ing the impact of any proposed investment on each of them. In order to illustrate this,
we have applied them to a generic analysis of the effect of process technology on the
airline industry.
Although the examples in Table 6.2 were set in the airline industry, we could have
done the same for any industry. The most important point to emerge from any similar
analysis in any sector is that the market opportunities associated with process technol-
ogy are far greater than the traditional narrow focus on cost reduction. Any sensible
evaluation of process technology must include all the effects impacting on quality,
Quality Does the process technology improve the An airline investing in in-flight entertainment
specification of the product or service? technology to enhance the specification of its
That is, does it provide something better or flight services.
different that customers value? An airline investing in maintenance equipment
Does the process technology reduce unwanted that keeps the performance of its aircraft
variability within the operation? Even if and ancillary systems within very tight
absolute specification quality is unaffected tolerances. This reduces the risk of failure in
by process technology, it may contribute to equipment, as well as increasing the internal
conformance quality by reducing variability. predictability of the airline’s processes.
Speed Does the process technology enable a faster The check-in technology used by airlines at
response to customers? Does it shorten the airport gates and lounges in effect allows
time between a customer making a request customers’ requests for seating or dietary
and having it confirmed (or a product requirements to be explored quickly and, if
delivered etc.)? possible, confirmed.
Does the process technology speed the The technology that allows the fast loading
throughput of internal processes? Even if of customers’ bags and in-flight catering
customers do not benefit directly from faster supplies, allows fuel to be loaded and engines
process throughput within an operation, to be checked etc. all reduces the time the
technology increasing ‘clock speed’ can benefit aircraft spends on the ground. This allows the
the operation by, for instance, reducing costs. aircraft to be used more intensively.
Dependability Does the process technology enable p roducts Specialist navigation equipment installed in
and/or services to be delivered more aircraft can allow them to land in conditions
dependably? Although many of the causes of of poor visibility, thus reducing the possibility
poor dependability may appear to be outside of delays due to bad weather.
the control of an operation, technology may Customers benefit directly from such an
help to bring some of the factors within its increase in dependability.
control. Airlines invest in advanced aircraft
Does the process technology enhance the communications technology. Efficient
dependability of processes within the communication between aircraft and
operation? Again, even when customers control centres reduces the possibility of
see no direct result of more dependable miscommunication, which, even when
technology, it can provide benefits for the presenting no danger, can waste time and
operation itself. cause confusion. Indeed, an oft-cited concern
of many airlines is that airports around the
world do not always match their investment in
communications technology – preventing maxi-
mum productivity gains from their equipment.
Flexibility Does the process technology allow the When an airline considers the mix of aircraft
operation to change in response to changes types to include in its fleet, it does so partly
in customer demand? Such changes may be to retain sufficient flexibility to respond
in either the level or nature of demand. to such things as timetable changes or
Does the process technology allow for unexpected demand.
adjustments to the internal workings of the Some aircraft (notably the Boeing 777) permit
operations processes? the precise configuration of cabins and
seating to be changed. While this may not
happen very frequently, it offers airlines the
flexibility to provide a different mix of services
without having different types of aircraft.
Cost Does the process technology process materials, A major driver for airlines to invest in new
information or customers more efficiently? aircraft is the greater efficiency (€/passenger
As we mentioned previously, this is by far mile flown) of each new generation of
the most common basis for justifying new aircraft that derives from the overall design
process technology, even if it is not always of the aircraft and, most especially, the
the most important. It is never unimportant, engines powering them.
however. The ‘yield management’ decision support
Does the process technology enable a greater systems used by airlines enable them to
effectiveness of the operations p rocesses? maximise the revenue from flights by
Even if straightforward efficiency is adjusting capacity and pricing strategies to
unaffected, process technology can aid the match demand patterns.
deployment of the operations capabilities
to increase profitability or general
effectiveness.
speed, dependability, flexibility and cost. As we stressed in Chapter 2, the generic per-
formance objectives are very rarely equally important for all types of operation. Their
relative importance will reflect the actual and intended market position of the organi-
sation. The implication of this for evaluating process technology is straightforward:
any evaluation must reflect the impact of process technology on each performance
objective relative to their importance to achieving a particular market position. Often
there will be trade-offs involved in adopting a new process technology. Reverting to
our airline examples earlier, one advantage of having a fleet of mixed aircraft is the flex-
ibility it provides to match aircraft to routes as the demand on different routes changes.
Yet different types of aircraft require different spare parts, different maintenance proce-
dures and different interfaces with ground technology and so on. This may add more
cost and complexity to the total airline operations than is gained through the benefits
of flexibility. For example, Airbus, the European airline consortium and great rival to
the US aerospace giant Boeing, claims that its strategy of common cockpit and flight
control systems across its range of planes saves considerable cost. Commonality in such
systems allows pilots and ground crews to deal with similar systems with 120-seater to
400-seater aircraft.
Scarcity Does the technology represent any Such resources might include bespoke
kind of first-mover advantage? production facilities in industries such
In other words, how much of the as petrochemicals and pharmaceuticals,
developed technology (or perhaps its where first-mover advantage often
underlying R&D) is not possessed by generates superior returns.
competitors? Capturing customer data over time and
Does the technology help to create or then exploiting this information has
exploit proprietary product/service long been a core element of airline
knowledge, perhaps in the tangible competitive strategies – such informa-
form of a database? tion is extremely scarce.
Difficult to move How much of the process technology The value of resource immobility helps to
was developed in-house? If a process explain the increased emphasis being
technology is unique and, moreo- placed upon infrastructure develop-
ver, it was developed ‘in-house’, ment in the management consulting
then such resources cannot easily be sector – to facilitate the retention of
accessed without purchasing the firm. skills, knowledge and experience.
How many of the critical technologi- Mobility concerns in, say, the IT sector
cal resources ‘don’t walk on legs’? explain the emergence of more com-
In other words, highlight those plicated contracts (constraining sub-
resources that are more than contrac- sequent employment etc.) and wage
tually tied into the operation. inflation for certain key staff.
Difficult to copy How far down the ‘learning curve’ is Experiences such as those documented
the process technology? in high-volume processes, such as Intel
How strong is the legal protection? and semiconductors, can create com-
Patents offer some protection, even petitive performance barriers.
though the process is long, often In the competitive confectionery market,
expensive and may attract greater for instance, there is almost pathologi-
competitive risk than simply having cal secrecy associated with proprietary
better site security. production processes, but very little
recourse to the filing of patents.
Difficult to create a substitute What, if any, market mechanisms exist Traditional EDI-type connections integrate
to prevent process technology simply supply chains but can also help to estab-
becoming irrelevant through the lish de-facto standards and introduce
introduction of a substitute? switching costs. They can therefore pre-
vent rivals offering substitute services.
Speed
Analysis time Reduced time to analyse case
Report lead-time material and produce reports
Excellent Poor
and open databases) and encourage regular sharing of experiences (i.e. seminars, staff
exchanges and apprenticeships).
Evaluating vulnerability
There have been some spectacular and very public failures associated with the introduc-
tion of new process technology. Yet presumably all of these process technology ‘failures’
were at one time determined to be both feasible and acceptable to the operation. Their
subsequent failure highlights one further important issue to explore – v ulnerability.
That is, what exposure is the firm accepting if something goes wrong with the technol-
ogy once the decision to invest is made?
Evaluating the risks associated with new process technology can be based on a very
similar type of analysis that we used for assessing acceptability; namely, by assessing
risk in terms of market, resource and financial perspectives.
up by the robotic arm and crushed against a metal plate, suffering fatal chest injuries.) It is the
introduction of robotic technologies into the customer environment that could give rise to new
areas of reputational risk for companies. For example, in 2016, a robot that was intended to guard
against shoplifters accidentally ran over a 16-month old boy at a shopping centre in Palo Alto,
California – ironically, a town famous for high-tech industries. The 130-kg robot, which looks
like R2-D2 from Star Wars, apparently did not sense that the child had fallen in its path and failed
to stop before they collided. According to the boy’s mother, ‘the robot hit my son’s head and he
fell down – facing down – on the floor, and the robot did not stop and it kept moving forward’.
It is an issue that was causing concern (or discussion) decades ago, before robots existed. The
author, and visionary, Isaac Asimov devised his Three Laws of Robotics to protect humans.
1 Don’t hurt a human being, or through inaction, allow a human being to be hurt.
2 A robot must obey the orders a human gives it unless those orders would result in a
human being harmed.
3 A robot must protect its own existence as long as it does not conflict with the first two laws.
The robot makers, Knightscope, said the incident was ‘absolutely horrifying’ and that the com-
pany would apologise directly to the family. It also pointed out that its fleet of similar robots
had covered 25,000 miles on patrol duty and there had never been an incident like this before.
Nevertheless, the Shopping Centre said it would temporarily take the robot out of service.
Other concerns that have been raised by companies fearing legal liability and reputational
risk include domestic devices like robot vacuum cleaners hurting pets or humans. A South
Korean woman was sleeping on the floor when her robot vacuum ‘ate’ her hair. Also some
‘automated’ services that could lead to customers confusing what’s real and what isn’t, resulting
in customers revealing more than they intended. For example, ‘Invisible Boyfriend’, is a service
that, for a monthly fee, sends ‘pretend’ romantic texts and voicemails to your phone – but not
all customers realise it is not fully automated, and that there are human operators involved.
Market vulnerability
Any investment in new technology needs to make an assumption concerning the mar-
ket (and more generable environment) that will exist when the technology is ‘up and
running’. The possibility to which any technology is subject to, therefore, is that of mar-
ket conditions being different from those envisaged when the technology was initially
planned. This type of vulnerability is inherent in every process innovation. Uncertainty
results from the fact that, on the one hand, events in the future do not follow the course
of past events and, on the other, knowing about the future is always incomplete. At its
simplest, this could be that market demand is different, either larger or smaller to such
an extent that the scale of the technology is inappropriate.
Six factors creating the uncertainty that leads to vulnerability in the innovation pro-
cess can be identified.10
1 Market vulnerability – will the technology, when developed and implemented, meet
the needs (real or perceived) of the market?
2 Regulatory vulnerability – will the technology conflict with any likely ‘constraining
regulations’ related to the environment, health or market behaviour (a significant
factor, for example in financial services)?
3 Social and political vulnerability – will the technology prove acceptable to all the
organisation’s stakeholders? Or will it expose a dysfunctional diversity of interests
within the total stakeholder body? For example, certain legitimate oil and gas extrac-
tion technologies may provoke social opposition.
4 Acceptance and legitimacy of vulnerability – will groups or individuals who feel them-
selves affected by it accept the technology? Although rationally an improved tech-
nology, does it threaten existing jobs?
5 Timing vulnerability – will the technology be implemented either too early or too late
with respect to parallel developments (e.g., competitors’ new technology)?
6 Response vulnerability – will the technology provoke hostile competitor innovations?
Is a ‘technology war’ desirable?
Resource vulnerability
All process technologies depend, for their effective operation, on support services. Spe-
cific skills are needed if the technology is to be installed, maintained, upgraded and
controlled effectively. In other words, the technology has a set of ‘resource depend-
encies’. Changing to a different process technology often means changing this set of
resource dependencies. This may have a positive aspect. The skills, knowledge and expe-
rience necessary to implement and operate the technology can be scarce and difficult
to copy and hence provide a platform for sustainable advantage. But there can also be
a downside to a changed set of resources dependencies. For example, the specific skills
needed to implement or operate a new process technology, because they are scarce,
could become particularly valuable in the labour market. The company is vulnerable to
the risk of the staff that have these skills leaving in order to leverage their value.
Issues of trust and power also influence the vulnerability created by dependence
upon external organisations, such as suppliers and customers. If there is a high degree
of trust between a firm and its technology supplier, it can be entirely appropriate to
become dependent for the installation, maintenance and upgrading of process tech-
nology upon a particular external provider. Dependence can also work the other
way. Customers may ask for a particular piece of technology to be dedicated to their
business. Again, this can be entirely legitimate if the operation trusts its customer to
continue generating work for them over a suitable period. However, such exclusive
relationships inevitably introduce vulnerabilities. For example, suppose an operation
is choosing between alternative suppliers of software. One supplier seems to be particu-
larly price-competitive, very service-oriented and has developed a particularly effective
leading-edge application. Unfortunately, this supplier is also smaller than the alterna-
tive suppliers. Although its products and service may be superior, it is itself more vul-
nerable to business pressures. If it went out of business the company would be left with
unsupported infrastructure. Under these circumstances the company may decide that
choosing this supplier would expose it to unacceptable levels of vulnerability.
Financial vulnerability
By ‘financial vulnerability, we mean the financial exposure that adopting a new tech-
nology poses to the adopting organisation. Of course, financial vulnerability can result
from market and/or resource vulnerability. Unexpected market conditions or failure
of the technology to perform as expected can both seriously impact the financial con-
sequences of investing in new process technology. Revenues, running costs, capital
requirements and the resulting cash flows will all be affected by market and resource
vulnerabilities. At the very least, one would expect any firm to explore the sensitivity
of financial outcomes to possible deviations from expected market and resource-based
conditions. But it is also important to recognise that, even if market and resource con-
ditions are exactly as expected, other conditions that impact on financial outcomes
could be unexpected. For example, the availability of credit, interest rates, stock market
sentiment and currency exchange rates can all affect the financial outcome of a project.
Further reading
Arthur, W.B. (2009) The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves. London: Allen
Lane.
Boardman, A., Greenberg, D., Vining, A. and Weimer, D. (2006) Cost Benefit Analysis: C oncepts
and Practice, 3rd Edition. Harlow, UK: Prentice Hall.
Bocij, P., Greasley, A. and Hickie, S. (2008) Business Information Systems: Technology, Develop-
ment and Management for the E-Business. Harlow, UK: Financial Times/Prentice Hall.
Brynjolfsson, E. and McAfee, A. (2014) The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity
in a Time of Brilliant Technologies. New York: W.W. Norton & Company.
Carlopio, J. (2003) Changing Gears: The Strategic Implementation of Technology. Basingstoke:
Palgrave Macmillan.
Edgerton, D. (2006) The Shock of the Old: Technology in Global History Since 1900. London:
Profile Books.
Ford, M. (2015) The Rise of the Robots–Technology and the Threat of Mass Unemployment.
London: Oneworld Publications.
Hayes, R.H., Pisano, G.P., Upton, D.M. and Wheelwright, S.C. (2004) Operations, Strategy, and
Technology: Pursuing the Competitive Edge. New York: Wiley.
Shane, S.A. (2013) Technology Strategy for Managers and Entrepreneurs. Harlow, UK: Pearson.
Susskind, R. and Susskind, Daniel (2015) The Future of the Professions: How Technology Will
Transform the Work of Human Experts. Oxford, UK: OUP.