FEASIBILITY Coffee Oil 70MILLION Second PRINT1
FEASIBILITY Coffee Oil 70MILLION Second PRINT1
PRODUCTIONINDUSTRYFEASIBIL
ITYSTUDY
ADDISABABACITY,ETHIOPIA
COMPANYGENERALMANAGER:
CONTACTADDRESS:
2024,ADDISABABA
1
TABLEOFCONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS............................................................................................2
LISTS OF TABLES AND FIGURES........................................................................5
Lists of Tables.....................................................................................................................................5
Lists of Figures....................................................................................................................................6
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS.....................................................................................7
1. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION......................................................................10
1. 1. Summary...................................................................................................................................10
1. 1. 1. Background.......................................................................................................................................10
1. 1. 2. Analysis of the Business Environment..............................................................................................10
1. 1. 3. Market Study.....................................................................................................................................11
1. 1. 4. Production Capacity and Program..................................................................................................12
1. 1. 5. Machinery and Equipment................................................................................................................12
1. 1. 6. Location and Warehouse Construction............................................................................................13
1. 1. 7. Organizational Structure and Human Resources.............................................................................13
1. 1. 8. Implementation.................................................................................................................................13
1. 1. 9. Financial Analyses...........................................................................................................................13
1. 2. Conclusion and Recommendation............................................................................................14
2. BACKGROUND....................................................................................................16
2. 1. Introduction...............................................................................................................................16
2. 2. Objectives of the Study.............................................................................................................16
2. 3. Methodology and Approach......................................................................................................17
2. 3. 1. Preliminary Assessment and Study Design......................................................................................17
2. 3. 2. Assessment of the Internal and External Business Environment......................................................17
2. 3. 3. Market Study.....................................................................................................................................18
2. 3. 4. Technical Study.................................................................................................................................20
2. 3. 5. Financial Analysis............................................................................................................................20
3. ANALYSIS of the BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT..............................................21
3. 1. General Background Information.............................................................................................21
3. 2. Analyses of the Internal Business Environment.......................................................................22
3. 2. 1. Establishment and Capital................................................................................................................22
3. 3. Analyses of the External Business Environment......................................................................22
3. 3. 1. Political Safety and Security.............................................................................................................22
3. 3. 2. Development Plan.............................................................................................................................23
3. 3. 3. Recent Macroeconomic and Financial Developments.....................................................................28
3. 3. 4. Availability and Cost of Human Resources......................................................................................31
3. 3. 5. Availability of Infrastructures..........................................................................................................32
3. 3. 6. Financial Services............................................................................................................................38
3. 3. 7. Trade Logistics.................................................................................................................................39
3. 3. 8. General Market Potential.................................................................................................................39
4. PRODUCT DESCRIPTION.................................................................................43
5. MARKET STUDY.................................................................................................45
5. 1. Agro-processing Industry in Ethiopia.......................................................................................45
5. 2. Market Study of Coffee Oil......................................................................................................45
5. 2. 1. Present Supply of Coffee Oil............................................................................................................46
5. 2. 2. Projected Demand Coffee Oil...........................................................................................................47
5. 2. 3. Market Share of the Envisaged Project............................................................................................48
5. 2. 4. Trend in Demand Drivers.................................................................................................................48
5. 2. 5. Marketing Mix Assessment...............................................................................................................55
6. PRODUCTION CAPACITY, PRODUCT MIX AND PROGRAM.................62
6. 1. Production Capacity..................................................................................................................62
6. 1. 1. Factors Considered in the Selection of Production Capacity..........................................................62
6. 2. Product Mix and Capacity.........................................................................................................63
6. 3. Production Program..................................................................................................................63
7. MATERIALS AND INPUTS................................................................................65
7. 1. Availability and Source of Raw Materials................................................................................65
7. 2. Availability and Source of Auxiliary Materials........................................................................66
7. 3. Annual Requirement and Cost of Raw Materials and Inputs....................................................67
7. 4. Annual Requirement and Cost of Utilities................................................................................67
8. TECHNOLOGY....................................................................................................69
8. 1. GCO and RCO Production Process..........................................................................................69
8. 2. Packaging and Storage Process.................................................................................................71
9. MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT.....................................................................72
9. 1. Plant Machinery.....................................................................................................................72
9. 2. Sources of Technology............................................................................................................72
9. 3. Vehicle......................................................................................................................................73
9. 4. Office Equipment And Furniture..............................................................................................73
10. LOCATION AND PRODUCTION WAREHOUSE........................................75
10. 1. Location of the Project Site.....................................................................................................75
10. 1. 1. Detail Characteristics of Selected Project Sites.............................................................................75
10. 2. Warehouse for Production and Selling Shop..........................................................................77
10. 2. 1. Cost of Warehouse Construction and Selling Shop........................................................................77
11. ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE AND HUMAN RESOURCES............79
11. 1. Organizational Structure.........................................................................................................79
11. 1. 1. General Manager...........................................................................................................................81
11. 1. 2. Production and Technical Department..........................................................................................81
11. 1. 3. Finance and Administration Department.......................................................................................82
11. 1. 4. Commercial Department................................................................................................................83
11. 1. 5. Quality Control and Assurance Department..................................................................................84
11. 1. 6. MIS Services Department...............................................................................................................84
11. 2. Human Resources...................................................................................................................85
13. 3. Training Requirement.............................................................................................................87
12. IMPLEMENTATION.........................................................................................88
12. 1. Project Organization and Management...................................................................................88
12. 1. 1. Project Organizations.....................................................................................................................88
13. FINANCIAL EVALUATION.............................................................................93
13. 1. Basic Assumptions For Financial Analyses............................................................................93
13. 1. 1. Project Life.....................................................................................................................................93
13. 1. 2. Repair and Maintenance Cost........................................................................................................93
13. 1. 3. Depreciation...................................................................................................................................93
13. 1. 4. Working Capital.............................................................................................................................94
13. 1. 5. Discounting.....................................................................................................................................94
13. 1. 6. Income Tax.....................................................................................................................................94
13. 1. 7. Source of Finance...........................................................................................................................94
13. 1. 8. Revenue...........................................................................................................................................95
13. 2. Result Of Financial Analysis..................................................................................................95
13. 2. 1. Investment Cost...............................................................................................................................95
13. 2. 2. Cost of Production..........................................................................................................................96
13. 2. 3. Source of Finance...........................................................................................................................97
13. 2. 4. Profitability.....................................................................................................................................97
13. 2. 5. Cash Flow.......................................................................................................................................98
13. 2. 6. Discounted Cash Flow....................................................................................................................98
13. 2. 7. Break-Even Analysis.......................................................................................................................99
13. 2. 8. Sensitivity Analyses.........................................................................................................................99
ANNEXES: FINANCIAL ANALYSIS SUPPOIRTING DOCUMENT BASED
ON COMFAR STANDARD...................................................................................100
REFERENCES.........................................................................................................106
LISTSOFTABLESANDFIGURES
ListsofTables
Table 3. 1 : Selected GTP II Targets.....................................................................................................25
Table 3. 2 : Real GDP Average Annual Growth Rate in Ethiopia and Selected Countries and Regions
(2022)....................................................................................................................................................29
Table 3. 3 : Comparison of the Labor Wages in Ethiopia and African and Asian Cities......................32
Table 3. 4 : Cost of Doing Business: Electricity as Constraint.............................................................37
Table 3. 5 : Trend in Ethiopia’s Telecommunication Indicators...........................................................38
Table 6. 1 : Coffee Oil Production Product Mix at its Full Capacity [%].............................................63
Table 6. 2 : Coffee Oil Production Program [Li]..................................................................................64
Table 7. 1 : Price of Ethiopian Coffee Beans per Grade Based On ECX, 2023....................................66
Table 7. 2 : List of Raw Materials and Inputs Requirement at Full Capacity [ETB]............................67
Table 7. 3 : Utility Requirement at Full Capacity [ETB]......................................................................68
ListsofFigures
Figure 3. 1 : Ranking of Ethiopia and Selected Countries in Quality of Roads (2016)........................33
Figure 3. 2 : Air Cargo Volume of Ethiopia and Selected Countries (000 Ton-km)............................35
Figure 3. 3 : Domestic Market Size Index Ranking for Ethiopia and Peer Nations..............................40
Figure 3. 4 : Foreign Market Size Index Ranking for Ethiopia and Peer Countries.............................42
Figure 5. 1 : Average Annual Growth Rate of GDP and Per Capita GDP for Ethiopia and Selected
Countries and Income Groups (2000-2017)..........................................................................................51
Figure 5. 2 : Final Household Consumption Expenditure for Ethiopia and Peer Countries in 2017
(Million USD).......................................................................................................................................52
Figure 5. 3: Black Glass Bottles to Prevent UV and Blue Light in Coffee Oil Packaging...................58
Figure 5. 4 : Distribution Lines in Marketing........................................................................................59
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Ethiopiaisimplementingwhatwillamounttoaquantumimprovementinthedevelopmentandimpro
vementofinfrastructure.
Thestate’sroadinfrastructurehasimprovedmassivelyinthepasttwodecades,whichamongothersh
asimprovedavailabilityofmarkets.
Theotherinfrastructuredevelopmentprogramsunderwayacrossthecountryincludeconstructionof
airportsandrailways,telecommunicationnetworks,andpowergeneration.
Moreover,asdifferentplansoftheGoEindicatethedevelopmentofinfrastructurewillremainafocus
ofthegovernmentandtargetsaresetforfurtheradvancesinthecountry’sinfrastructure.
Thecountryalsohasalargesupplyofsemi-
skilledandskilledlabor,whichcanbeeasilyupgradedtotherequiredskilllevel.
Thecostoflaborisalsoveryinexpensivecomparedtosimilardevelopingnations.
EthiopiaisalsogeographicallypositionedtoprovidegoodaccesstoAfrican,EU,MiddleEasternand
Asianexportmarkets.
ThecountryalsoenjoysDFQFprivilegeextendedbyglobalandregionalmarketsofCOMESA,AGO
A,EU,China,India,JapanandKorea.
Moreover,thedevelopmentoftransportinfrastructurecoupledwithtradelogisticsreformsisradicall
yshrinkingtheeffectivedistancebetweenthecountryandglobalmarkets,andfacilitatingexport.
Atthistime,therearechallengesofforeignexchangeshortages,powerinterruption,longlead-
timesforimportandexportduetothecurrentinefficientlogisticalinfrastructure,andbureaucraticdel
ays.
However,theGoEhasidentifiedtheabovechallengesasaprioritystrategicissuetoimprovethecomp
etitivenessoftheeconomyandmajorinitiativesarecurrentlyunderway.
Hence,duetotheattentiongivenbytheGoE,oncethecoordinatedinitiativesarefullyfledged,itisexp
ectedthattheextracoststhatarebeingbornebytheprivatesectorduetoforeignexchangeshortagesan
dinefficienttradelogisticswillbehighlyreduced.
1. 1. 3. MarketStudy
ThedemandofthelocalmarketofcoffeeoilissuppliedthroughareNaturalsTrading.
Manyoftheinducingvariablesaresocial,economic,politicalandtechnologicalinnatureandattribut
e.
Themajorfactorsincoffeeoildemandarecoffeeharvesting,demographic,andeconomicfactorssuc
haspopulationsizeandgrowthtrend,urbanizationandincome.
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Accordingly,athoroughassessmentoftheabovefactorsindicatesthatthereisagraduallygrowingloc
alandglobaldemandforGCOandRCO.
Theconsumptionofcoffeeoilintheworldwasincreasingfromyeartoyearduringthelastdecades.
Theapparentconsumptiongrowthisduetotheeconomicgrowthoftheworldandahabitofconsuming
organicproductsintherecentlifestyle.
Thepresent (2023)productionofcoffeeoilisestimatedat3,600. 00Li ofcoffeeoilperyear.
Thedemandforcoffeeoilisprojectedtoreach5,065. 56Libytheyear2030.
Moreover,bytheyear2032,thedemandisfurtherprojectedtoreach5,584. 78Liforcoffeeoil.
1. 1. 4. ProductionCapacityandProgram
CoffeeoilwillmanufactureonlyfromArabicacoffeebyusingoffee. The industry uses 100,000.
00 kg of green coffee beans for GCOproduction and 144,000. 00 kg of green coffee beans for
RCO production per year. Theutilitiesoftheindustryare242,000. 00kWhofelectricity,33,000.
00Li of fuel,150. 00m3ofwater,7. 00kgoflubricantoiland600. 00GBICTservices.
Thequalityofingredientsofrawmaterialsandotherinputsdeterminetheefficiencyofthecoffeeoilf
oritsdesirablequalityintheglobalmarket.
Thefactoryisexpectedtooperatefor1shiftof8hoursperdayand300daysperannumtoproduce4,000
. 00and6,000. 00LiofGCOandRCOrespectively.
TheareNaturalsTradingisexpectedtostartoperatingat70%offullcapacity,whichwillgrowto80%a
nd90%duringsecondandthirdyearsofoperationandthenafter.
Thecompanywillsell40%oftheindustryproducttolocalmarket.
Theremaining60%willexporttotheglobalmarket.
TheexportdestinationsoftheCompany’sproductsaremainlyEU,USA,Canada,FarEast,MiddleEa
st,andEastAfricancountries.
1. 1. 5. MachineryandEquipment
ThetotalcostofmachineryandequipmentfortheproductionofcoffeeoilisestimatedatETB10.
67millionincludingcontingencies.
Vehicleisnecessaryfortheday-to-
dayoperationofcoffeeoilprocessingindustryespeciallyrelatedtomarketing.
ThevehiclewillbepurchaseatatotalcostofETB3. 23million.
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Requestsfortheofficeequipmentandfurnitureincludecomputersandtheiraccessories,printers,pho
tocopiers,faxmachine,differenttypes/sizesofchairsandtables,filingcabinetsandshelfetc.
ThetotalcostoftherequiredofficeequipmentandfurnitureisestimatedatETB2. 71million.
1. 1. 6. LocationandWarehouseConstruction
ThelocationselectedfortheareNaturalsTradingfulfillskeyrequirementsidentifiedasessentialorcr
iticalforafeasibleandviableimplementationandoperationoftheCoffeeOilIndustry.
Thesecriticalrequirementsoftheenvisagedprojectcompriseaccesstorawmaterial,power,labor,la
nd,capital,marketandtransportinsiteselection.
Theprojectsiteisat Ankober,whichisoneofthepotentialsitesforcoffeeoilprocessing.
areNaturalsTradingrequireswarehouseforcoffeeoilproductionshed,rawmaterialsandinputsstora
geshed,officesandotheractivities. Inthisregard,thepromoteroftheprojecthas already secured
3,000m2oflandatAnkober Town for industrial facilities construction. Additionally, the
company has to rent 215m2ofsellingshopatthecenterofthe Addis Ababa city.
Accordingly,thecompanyhastopayarentcostofETB3. 84millionperyear.
1. 1. 7. OrganizationalStructureandHumanResources
areNaturalsTradingorganizationalstructureshallcontainofsixdepartments.
Basedontheorganizationalstructures,thetotalnumberofemployeesrequiredandtheannuallaborco
stisestimatedat61 andETB14. 67 million,respectively.
1. 1. 8. Implementation
Theimplementationschedulecoverstheactivitiesstartingfromthecoffeeoilproductionprojecteval
uationandapprovaluptoandincludingthetrialrunandcommissioning.
Itisenvisagedthatthecompleteimplementationprogramrequiresatotalof12 months.
Theprojectimplementationcostwhichcomprisesprojectofficerunningandfollow-
upexpenses,anderectionandcommissioningisestimatedatETB2. 62million.
1. 1. 9. FinancialAnalyses
ThetotalinvestmentcostoftheprojectisestimatedatETB71. 32million. From the total
investment cost, the highest share is accounted by initial working capital (ETB 34. 95million
or 49. 01%) followed by fixed investment cost (ETB 33. 75 million or 47. 32%) and pre-
operation cost (ETB 2. 62 million or 3. 67%).
Theinvestmentrequirementofenvisagedprojectwouldbefinancedbyequitycapitalfrom potential
investor i. e. ETB 71. 32million.
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ThetotalannualoperatingcostandannualrevenueatfullcapacityutilizationisestimatedatETB232.
88 millionandETB1. 32 billion respectively.
Theprojectwouldstarttogeneratepositivecashflowfromthefirstyearofproduction.
TheprojectisviablewithNPVofETB1. 90billion,discountedat12%,andanIRRof708. 53%.
Theprojectwillpay-backthetotalinvestmentwithin 1
yearwhichisveryreasonablyshortperiodoftime.
Othermeasuresofprofitabilityi. e.
netprofitaftertax,netprofitaspercentofsalesrevenue,netprofittoequityandnetprofittototalinvest
mentorreturnoninvestment (ROI)areallattractive.
Moreover,importantfinancialefficiencyratioslikecurrentassetstocurrentliabilitiesandnetwortht
ototalliabilitiesallshowthattheprojectishighlyliquidandhassoundfinancialperformance.
Thebreak-evenpointforsalesandcapacityutilizationarecomputedatETB680. 87 millionand5.
15%respectively,whichareveryattractiveandhaslessriskforlossmakingduetobreakingevenatlow
levelofcapacityutilizationandsales.
Furthermore,thesensitivityanalysisoftheinvestmentshowsthat,theprojectisstillfeasiblewithadec
reaseof79. 88%insalesprice(e. g. , if the price of GCO and RCO can decrease up to ETB
26,826. 67and ETB20,120. 00per liter respectively, thesustainability of the
businessdoesn’taffect) andanincreaseof296. 08%inoperatingcostofproduction.
1. 2. ConclusionandRecommendation
Themainfindingsofthefeasibilitystudyindicatethatthereisapossiblylargeandhighlydemanddrive
nmarketforcoffeeoilatlocalandinternationalmarket.
Themajorfattyacidsofcoffeeoilswerelinoleicacidandpalmiticacid,followedbyoleicacid,andstea
ricacid. Thecompositionsoffattyacidsarenotsignificantlyaffectedbytheroastingtreatment.
Incontrast,thepercentageofstearicacidsignificantlydecreasedduetotheroastingtreatment.
ThemostimportantcompositionsofGCOarebetterthanRCO. Accordingly,thebenefits
ofGCOareslightlybetterthanRCO.
ThecoffeeoilproducttobeprocessedbyareNaturalsTradingwilleffectivelycompeteinthemarketb
ygivingdueattentiontoproductqualityincludingpackaging,efficientdistribution,andqualitymark
eting. Theindustrywillutilizethestate-of-art-
technologyastheproductionprocesssensitivetopressing.
Theprojectisalsoinstitutionallysoundduetothesuggestedsuitableorganizationalstructureandavai
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lablehumanresourceastheskilledandnon-
skilledlaborsareavailableatanytimewiththespecifiedstructureofthecompany.
AsperthedifferentcomputationsworkedoutoftheareNaturalsTradingisfinanciallyviable.
Therefore,athoroughreviewofprofileofthepromoters,marketpotential,technicalsoundness,orga
nizationandmanagementandfinancialviabilitydemonstratethat Coffee Oil
ManufacturingIndustryisviableandjustifiedforfullimplementation.
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2. BACKGROUND
2. 1. Introduction
areNaturalsTrading,whichwillbelocateinAnkober
Town,willengageincoffeeoilproductionwithglobalqualitystandardfromArabicacoffee.
Theindustryhasscheduledtohavetheestablishmentof Coffee Oil
ManufacturingIndustrywiththestate-to-art-technologyatlargescale.
Thecompanywantstohaveavisiontohavebrandcoffeeproduct.
Accordingly,theindustryhasencouragedbythepositiveinitiativesofthegovernmentandthefavora
blebusinessenvironmentforArabicacoffeeatlocalandglobalmarket.
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