BBA – 2 (Spring – 2024)

Statistical Inference

Assorted Questions before Mid Term

Ahmad Jalil Ansari

Contact: [email protected]
 Sampling Distribution
Question: #01
The average age of a vehicle registered in the United
States is 8 years, or 96 months. Assume the standard
deviation is 16 months. If a random sample of 36
vehicles is selected, find the probability that the mean of
their age is between 90 and 100 months.
Solution
Since the sample is 30 or larger, the normality assumption is not necessary.
The two z values are 𝜇𝑥 = µ = 96
90−96 100−96
𝑧1 = 16 = −2.25 𝑧2 = 16 = 1.5
36 36
The area for z = -2.25 is 0.01222, and the area for z = 1.50 is 0.93319.
Hence P(-2.25 < z < 1.5) = P(z < 1.5) - P(z < -2.25)
= 0.93319 - 0.01222 = 0.92097, or 92.1%.

Hence, the probability of obtaining a sample mean between 90 and 100

months is 92.1%; that is, P(90 < 𝑋 <100) = 92.1%.
 Normal Approx. to Binomial Distribution
Question: #02
If a baseball player’s batting hit is 32%, find the probability
that the player will get at most 26 hits in 100 times at bat.

Solution P(X ≤ 26) = ?

p = 0.32, q = 0.68, and n = 100.
np = (100)(0.320) = 32 > 5 and nq = (100)(0.680) = 68 > 5, the normal
distribution can be used to approximate the binomial distribution.
µ = np = 32
σ = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 = (100)(0.320)(0.68 = 21.76 = 4.66

z = (26.5 – 32) / 4.66 = -1.18

P(X ≤ 26.5) = P(z ≤ -1.18) = 0.1190
Hence the probability that the player will get at most 26 hits in 100
times at bat is 0.1190, or 11.9%
 Sampling Distribution
Question: #03
A probability distribution for marks obtained by 100 students in a quiz
(obtained from 5) is given as
Marks 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(X) 10% 20% 25% 20% 15% 10%
What is the value of mean and standard deviation if it were from:
a. Population
b. A random sample of 16 students were taken from this population
𝑥 P(x) 𝑥.P(x) 𝑥 2 𝑥 2.P(x) a. Population
0 10.00% 0 0 0.0 Mean = 𝜇 = E(𝑥) = 2.4
1 20.00% 0.2 1 0.2 Variance of 𝑥 = σ2 = E(𝑥2) – [E(𝑥)]2 =
2 25.00% 0.5 4 1.0 7.9 – (2.4)2 = 2.14
3 20.00% 0.6 9 1.8 Therefore, σ = 1.462874
4 15.00% 0.6 16 2.4
5 10.00% 0.5 25 2.5
b. Sample
Sum 100.00% 2.4 7.9 𝜇𝑥 = 𝜇 = E(𝑥) = 2.4
σ
𝜎𝑥 = = 2.14/4 = 0.5325
𝑛
 Sampling Distribution
Question: #04
The age of five kids were asked and recorded in the following table.
Kid# 1 2 3 4 5
Age 5 4 7 4 5
If random sample of size 2 is taken, construct the sampling distribution
without replacement and show that
i. Mean of all possible means is equal to population mean i.e. 𝜇𝑥 = µ
𝛔 𝐍 −𝐧
ii. 𝛔𝐱 =
𝐧 𝐍−𝟏

µ = ¼ (5 + 4 + 7 + 4 + 5) = 1/5 (25) = 5

σ2 = 1/5 (25 + 16 + 49 + 16 + 25) – (5)2 = 1/5 (131) - 25 = 26.2 – 25 = 1.2

σ = 1.0954

No of possible samples = 5C2 = 10

 Kid# 1 2 3 4 5
Question: #04 (cont.) Age 5 4 7 4 5
Kid# Ages 𝑥 𝑥 Freq. P(x) 𝑥.P(x) 𝑥2 𝑥 2.P(x)

Sum
Mean of 𝑥 = 𝜇𝑥 = E(𝑥) = ?
Variance of 𝑥 = σ2𝑥 = E(𝑥2) – [E(𝑥)]2 = ?

σ𝑥 =?

𝝈 𝑵 −𝒏
=?
𝒏 𝑵−𝟏
 Kid# 1 2 3 4 5
Question: #04 (cont.) Age 5 4 7 4 5
Kid# Ages 𝑥 𝑥 Freq. P(x) 𝑥.P(x) 𝑥2 𝑥 2.P(x)
1,2 5, 4 4.5 4.0 1 0.1 0.4 16 1.6
1,3 5,7 6.0 4.5 4 0.4 1.8 20.25 8.1
1,4 5,4 4.5 5.0 1 0.1 0.5 25 2.5
1,5 5,5 5.0 5.5 2 0.2 1.1 30.25 6.05
2,3 4,7 5.5 6.0 2 0.2 1.2 36 7.2
2,4 4,4 4.0 Sum 10 1.0 5 25.45
2,5 4,5 4.5 Mean of 𝑥 = 𝜇𝑥 = E(𝑥) = 5
3,4 7,4 5.5
3,5 7,5 6.0 Variance of 𝑥 = σ2𝑥 = E(𝑥2) – [E(𝑥)]2
4,5 4,5 4.5 = 25.45 – 25 = 0.45
σ𝑥 = 0.45 = 0.67082

𝝈 𝑵 −𝒏 𝟏.𝟎𝟗𝟓𝟒 𝟓 −𝟐 𝟏.𝟎𝟗𝟓𝟒 𝟑
= = = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟕𝟎𝟕𝟗𝟗
𝒏 𝑵−𝟏 𝟐 𝟓−𝟏 𝟏.𝟒𝟏𝟒𝟐 𝟒

𝝈 𝑵 −𝒏
Therefore, =
𝒏 𝑵−𝟏
 Poisson Distribution
Question: #05
A sales firm receives, on average, 72 calls per day on its toll-free
number. For any given hour, find the probability that it will receive:
a. At most 3 calls/hour b. At least 3 calls/hour
c. 5 or more calls/hour
Solution
Call received per hour = 72/24  λ = 3 calls/hour
𝑋
3𝑒
−λ .λ
a. P(At most 3 calls) = P(X ≤ 3) = 0
𝑋!
= [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3)]
𝑒 −3 .3 𝑒 −3 .3 𝑒 −3 .3 𝑒 −3 .3
0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3
3 3 3 3
= + + + = 𝑒 −3 [ + + + ]
0! 1! 2! 3! 0! 1! 2! 3!
= 0.0498 [1 + 3 + 4.5 + 4.5] = 0.0498 (13) = 0.6472
b. P(At least 3 calls) = P(X ≥ 3) = 1 – P(X < 3)
=1 – [[P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)]
= 1 - 0.0498 [1 + 3 + 4.5]
= 1 – 0.4232 = 0.5768 ≈ 𝟓𝟕. 𝟔𝟖%
 Poisson Distribution
Question: #05 (cont.)
A sales firm receives, on average, 72 calls per day on its toll-free
number. For any given hour, find the probability that it will receive:
a. At most 3 calls/hour b. At least 3 calls/hour
c. 5 or more calls/hour
Solution λ = 3 calls/hour
𝑋
3𝑒
−λ .λ
c. P(5 or more) = P(X ≥ 5) = 1 - 0
𝑋!
= 1 – P(X < 5)
= 1 - [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4)]
e−3 .3 e−3 .3 e−3 .3 e−3 .3 e−3 .3
0 1 2 3 4
=1–[ + + + + ]
0! 1! 2! 3! 4!
0 1 2 3 4
3 3 3 3 3
= 1 – e−3 [ + + + + ]
0! 1! 2! 3! 4!
= 1 – 0.0498 [1 + 3 + 4.5 + 4.5 + 3.375]
= 1 – 0.0498 [16.375] = 1 - 0.8155
= 1 – 0.8152 = 0.1848 ≈ 𝟏𝟖. 𝟒𝟓%
 Normal Approx. to Binomial Distribution
Question: #06
In a village, 10% person are left-handed. If 200
person are selected at random, find the probability
that 10 or more will be left-handed. Figure 6–38 Area Under a Normal Curve and X
Value for Example 6–17

Solution We need to find P(X ≥ 10)

p = 0.10, q = 0.90, n = 200.
np = (200)(0.10) = 20 > 5 and nq = (200)(0.90) = 180 > 5, the normal
approximation can be used.
µ = np = 20 σ = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 = (200)(0.10)(0.90 = 18 = 4.24

z = (9.5 – 20) / 4.24 = -2.48

P(X > 9.5) = 1- P(X ≤ 9.5) = 1 - P(z < -2.48)

= 1 – 0.00657 = 0.99343, or 99.34%

It can be concluded, then, that the probability of 10 or more left-handed

people in a random sample of 200 is 99.34%.
 Binomial Distribution
Question: #07
The Statistical Bulletin reported that 2% of all American births result
in twins. If a random sample of 8000 births is taken, find the mean,
variance, and standard deviation of the number of births that would
result in twins.

Solution
This is a binomial situation, since a birth can result in either twins or
not twins (i.e., two outcomes).
Mean: µ = n • p = 8000 • 0.02 = 160
Variance: σ2 = n • p • q = 8000 • 0.02 • 0.98 = 156.8
Standard deviation: σ = 156.8 = 12.5
For the sample, the average number of births that would result in
twins is 160, the variance is 156.8, or 157, and the standard
deviation is 12.5, or 13 if rounded.
 Poisson approx. to the Binomial Distribution
Question: #08
If approximately 2% of the people in a room of 200 people are left-
handed, find the probability that
𝑒 −λ . λ 𝑋
i. Exactly 5 people are left-handed. 𝑃 𝑋; λ =
ii. Less than 5 people are left handed 𝑋!
iii. More than 5 people are left handed
Solution
Since λ = n • p, then λ = (200)(0.02) = 4. Hence,
i. P(Exactly 5 people are left-handed) = P(X=5, λ=4)
(2.7183)−4 (4)5
𝑃 𝑋; λ = = 0.1563 ≈ 𝟏𝟓. 𝟔𝟑%
5!
ii. Less than 5 people are left handed = P(X < 5)
4 𝑒 −λ . λ
𝑋

0 = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4)

𝑋!
0 1 2 3 3
4 4 4 4 4
= e−4 . [ + + + + ]
0! 1! 2! 3! 4!
= 0.01832 x [1 + 4 + 8 + 32/3+ 32/3] = 0.01832 x 34.3333]
= 0.6288 = 62.88%
 Poisson approx. to the Binomial Distribution
Question: #08
If approximately 2% of the people in a room of 200 people are left-
handed, find the probability that
𝑒 −λ . λ 𝑋
i. Exactly 5 people are left-handed. 𝑃 𝑋; λ =
ii. Less than 5 people are left handed 𝑋!
iii. More than 5 people are left handed
Solution
Since λ = n • p, then λ = (200)(0.02) = 4. Hence,

iii. More than 5 people are left handed = P(X > 5) = 1 - P(X ≤ 5)
𝑒 −λ .λ
𝑋
= 1 - 50
𝑋!
= 1 - [P(X = 0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3) + P(X=4) + P(X=5)]
= 1 – [0.6288 + 0.1563] = 1 – 0.7851 = 0.2149 = 21.49%
 Normal Distribution
Question: #09
A survey found that women spend on average
$146.21 for the Christmas holidays. Assume the
standard deviation is $29.44. Find the percentage
of women who spend less than $160.00. Assume
the variable is normally distributed.

Solution P(X < $160) = ?

𝑋−𝜇 $160.00 − $146.21
𝑧= = = 0.47
𝜎 $29.44

The area under the curve to the left of z = 0.47 is 0.68082.

P(X < $29.44) = P(z < 0.47) = 0.68082 ≈ 𝟔𝟖. 𝟎𝟖%

Therefore, 68.08% of the women spend less than $160.00 at

Christmas time
 Normal Approx. to Binomial Distribution
Question: #10
A magazine reported that 6% of American drivers
read the newspaper while driving. If 300 drivers are
selected at random, find the probability that exactly
25 say they read the newspaper while driving.
Solution We need to find P(X = 25)
Here, p = 0.06, q = 0.94, and n = 300
np = (300)(0.06) = 18, nq = (300)(0.94) = 282
Since np ≥ 5 and nq ≥ 5, the normal distribution can be used.
µ = 18, σ = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 = (300)(0.06)(0.94) = 4.11
Using the continuity correction factor:
P(25 - 0.5 < X < 25 + 0.5) = P(24.5 < X < 25.5)
z1 = (25.5 - 18) / 4.11 = 1.82 z2 = (24.5 – 18) / 4.11 = 1.58
P(24.5 < X < 25.5) = P(X < 25.5) = P(X < 24.5)
= P(z < 1.82) - P(z < 1.58)
= 0.9656 - 0.9429 = 0.0227, or 2.27%.
Hence, the probability that exactly 25 people read the newspaper while
driving is 2.27%
 Normal Distribution
Question: #11
A web site claims that its average download
time is 7 second with the standard deviation
of 2 seconds. What is the probability that the
download time will be:
i. More than 9 seconds 𝜇=0
ii. Between 5 and 9 seconds
𝑋−𝜇 9−7
Solution i. P(X > 9) = ? 𝑧= = =1
𝜎 2
The area under the curve to the left of z = 1 is 0.84134.
P(X > 9) = P(z > 0.47) =1 – 0.84134 = 0.15864 ≈ 𝟏𝟓. 𝟖𝟔%
Therefore15.86% of the time downloading time will be more than 9 seconds.
ii. P(5 < X < 9) = ?
z1 = (9 – 7) / 2 = 1.0 z2 = (5 - 7) / 2 = -1.0
The area under the curve to the left of z = 1 is 0.8413.
The area under the curve to the left of z = -1 is 0.1587
P(5 < X < 9) = 0.8413 - 0.1587 = 0.6826 ≈ 𝟔𝟖. 𝟐𝟔%
Therefore, 68.26% of the time downloading time will be between 5 and seconds.
 Normal Distribution
Question: #12
A web site claims that its average download time is 7
second with the standard deviation of 2 seconds.
What are the maximum and minimum download
𝜇=0
time that have 95% probability.
Solution
Total area covered = 95%..
Let XL represent lower limit and XU upper limit of the download time.
95% of the values are between XL and XU 5% out of the region
XL and XU are equally distant from the mean, therefore
2.5% values are below XL and 2.5% values are above XU
i. For XL ii. For XU
P(z < a) = 0.025  z = -1.96 P(z < a) = 0.975  z = 1.96
𝑋−𝜇 𝑋𝐿 − 7 𝑋−𝜇 𝑋𝑈 − 7
𝑧= → = −1.96 𝑧= → = 1.96
𝜎 2 𝜎 2
 XL =7 + 2(-1.96) = 7 – 3.92  XU =7 + 2(1.96) = 7 + 3.92
 XL = 3.08  XU = 10.92
 Binomial Distribution
Question: #13
A survey reported that 5% of Americans are afraid of being alone at night.
If a random sample of 20 Americans is selected, find the probability for
people in the sample who are afraid of being alone at night, if:
i. There are exactly 5 people who are afraid of being alone at night.
ii. There are at most 3 people who are afraid of being alone at night.
iii. There are at least 3 people who are afraid of being alone at night.
Solution n = 20, p = 0.05
i. P(X = 5) = 20C5 (0.05)5 (0.95)20-15 = 0.002
ii. P(At most 3 people) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3)
= 20C0(0.05)0(0.95)20 + 20C1(0.05)1(0.95)19 + 20C2(0.05)2(0.95)18
+ 20C2(0.05)2(0.95)18 = 0.358 + 0.377 + 0.189 + 0.060 = 0.984 ≈ 𝟗𝟖. 𝟒%
iii. P(At least 3 people) = P( X ≥ 3) = 1 - P( X < 3)
= 1 – [P(0) + P(1) + P(2)]
= 1 – [20C0(0.05)0(0.95)20 + 20C1(0.05)1(0.95)19 + 20C2(0.05)2(0.95)18]
= 1 – [0.358 + 0.377 + 0.189 = 0.924]
= 1 - 0.924 = 0.076 ≈ 𝟕. 𝟔%
 Probability Distribution
Question: #14
A box contains 5 balls. Two are numbered 3, one is numbered 4, and two
are numbered 5. The balls are mixed and one is selected at random. After
a ball is selected, its number is recorded. Then it is replaced. If the
experiment is repeated many times, find the variance and standard
deviation of the numbers on the balls.
Solution Let X be the number on each ball. The probability
distribution is Number on ball X 3 4 5
Probability P(X) 2/5 1/5 2/5
The mean is
µ = Σ[X • P(X)] = 3 • 2/5 + 4 • 1/5 + 5 • 2/5 = 4
The variance is
𝜎2 = 𝑋 2 . 𝑃(𝑋) − 𝜇2 = [32• 2/5 + 42 • 1/5 + 52• 2/5] - 42
= 16.8 - 16 = 0.8
The standard deviation is 𝜎 = 0.8 = 0.894
Thank you

Ahmad Jalil Ansari

Contact: [email protected]