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FORECAST

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Julianne Avril R. Velasco
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21 views

FORECAST

Uploaded by

Julianne Avril R. Velasco
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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NAME: Velasco, Julianne Avril R.

SECTION: BSA 3B

PROBLEM 1:

Month Sales (000units)


Feb. 19
Mar. 18
Apr. 15
May 20
June 18
July 22
Aug. 20

Required: Forecast September sales volume using each of the following:


a. The naïve approach

CHANGE FROM
MONTH SALES PREVIOUS VALUE FORECAST

July 22
Aug. 20 -2
Sep. 20+(-2)= 18

b. A five month moving average

Month Sales (000units)


Feb. 19
Mar. 18
Apr. 15
May 20
June 18
July 22
Aug. 20

=15+20+18+22+20 = 19
F8
5

c. A weighted average using 0.60 for August, 0.30 for July and 0.10 for June.

=.10(18)+.30(22)+.60(20) = 20.4
F8
20.4
d. Exponential smoothing with a smoothing
constant equal to 0.20, assuming previous forecast of 19(000).

=19+.20(20-19) = 19.2
F8
21.6

PROBLEM 2:
An electrical contractor’s records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests:
Week 1 2 3 4 5
Requests 20 22 18 21 22

Predict the number of requests for week 6 using each of these methods
a. Naïve

CHANGE FROM
WEEK REQUESTS PRVIOUS VALUES FORECAST
4 21
5 22 1
22+1 23

b. A four-period moving average

Week 1 2 3 4 5
Requests 20 22 18 21 22

=22+18+21+22 = 20.75
F6
4

c. Exponential smoothing with α=0.30; use 20 for previous forecast

20+.30(22-20) = 20.6
F6 20.6

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