World Oil Market Report – Products Imbalances & Pressure Points

Short-Term Global Oil Service

Issue 6, June 2023

OIL

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Contents
1. Highlights & Global High-level Overview for Each Product 6. Jet/Kerosene (Revisions from Last Month, Global Overview,
North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, FSU,
Asia)
2. Notes & Main Regional FGE Reports
7. Gasoil/Diesel (Revisions from Last Month, Global Overview,
North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, FSU,
3. Global Refinery Throughput by Region
Asia)
4. Naphtha (Revisions from Last Month, Global Overview, North
America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, FSU, Asia) 8. Fuel Oil (Revisions from Last Month, Global Overview, North
America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, FSU, Asia)

5. Gasoline (Revisions from Last Month, Global Overview, North 9. Data Tables
America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, FSU, Asia)
1. Highlights
 Highlights

• Global product demand is seen rising by 2.38 mmb/d in 2023, practically unchanged from our last report.
• The plight of naphtha has gone from bad to worse with global ethylene prices exhibiting a much sharper downtrend than crude prices in recent weeks. Manufacturing PMIs
for May remain in contractionary territory in key areas including the European Union and China (NBS). An improvement does not look likely in the next six months.

• We have revised African gasoline demand lower for June to December by 70 kb/d relative to the last edition of this report due to surging retail prices in West Africa.
• The European gasoline balance for 2023 is 230 kb/d tighter than the 2015-2019 average. Around 90 kb/d of this comes from higher demand as consumers have switched
from diesel vehicles to gasoline-powered ones (and EVs) with the rest reflecting lower supplies due to refinery shutdowns. It is increasingly evident that European
consumers unable or unwilling to purchase EV cars are instead buying gasoline-fuelled vehicles.

• Rising air fleet efficiency is taking a toll on jet/kero demand. Flight activity will therefore have to rise well above pre-pandemic levels to bring demand back to 2019 levels.
• NWE and NYH diesel cracks are not expected to fall below $20/bbl on a monthly average basis in 2023 given the structurally higher costs of importing cargoes from more
distant non-Russian locations such as the Middle East and India.

• Ample Chinese product export quotas are acting as a ceiling to Singapore gasoline, diesel and jet/kero cracks – effectively tying Asia’s market more closely to the internal
Chinese market.

• VLSFO cracks are set to peak in summer and will then weaken as the availability of low sulphur residues such as LSSR and LSVGO increases from September as the pull
from the gasoline pool wanes. The start up of the third train of Al Zour in 3Q 2023 will further add to regional East of Suez VLSFO availability.

• An easing in Chinese buying of HSFO combined with higher Russian output should weigh on fuel oil prices. An expected end to Saudi Arabia’s additional voluntary supply
cuts in September will also improve the supply side, while demand from the Middle Eastern power generation sector wanes from September.

4
 Naphtha: Cracks to remain subdued into winter; floor in NWE yet to be hit

• Revisions: Globally, naphtha supply for 2023 was increased by 75 kb/d, coming mainly
Implied* Global Naphtha S/D Balance, kb/d from the FSU and Asia, while global demand increased by 10 kb/d. This lengthened the
800 global balance by 65 kb/d relative to the last edition of this report.

• The latest sets of manufacturing PMIs are going from bad to worse. The official Chinese
400
PMI for May fell deeper into contractionary territory at 48.8. Similarly, the HCOB
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI slid by 1 point m-o-m to 44.8 in May, its lowest level since
0 the pandemic in 2020. Bankruptcy levels have also been soaring across the Eurozone in
recent quarters. Against this poor macroeconomic backdrop, a recovery seems unlikely
-400 before 2H 2024.

-800 • In a particularly bearish trend for the naphtha market, global ethylene prices have
Jan Apr Jul Oct been on a much sharper downtrend than crude prices in recent weeks. Since the
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024 start of May, Dubai crude prices have fallen 6% while NE Asian ethylene prices have
fallen 21%. It does not look much different in other regions either.
* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook
• Hope that new capacities will boost naphtha demand is likely misplaced because the
Naphtha product cracks, $/bbl majority of new petchem plants is integrated with refineries and will produce their own
0 naphtha for petchem processing. Increased ethylene production, however, will
weigh on global ethylene prices keeping a lid on steam cracker runs.
-5

-10
• Relative to our last report, the NWE forward crack spread has shifted lower by around
$5/bbl and is now slightly lower than the levels for the summer we were projecting last
-15 month. Given recent data, however, we have also reduced our summer outlook and so
continue to remain more bearish than the forward curve for the rest of 2023. We have
-20 even heard rumours of run cuts at some landlocked European refiners due to brimming
Market = Forward curve @ 28 June naphtha inventories.
-25
Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Jan-24 Mar-24
• For Asia, we are more optimistic than the forward curve, especially at the prompt
Sing vs Dubai NWE vs Brent Market (Sing) Market (NWE) end as we do expect more naphtha to be blended into the gasoline pool. On the
Source: Platts, FGE, ICE, NYMEX
demand side we also expect an uptick in spot naphtha purchases on the return of a
slew of South Korean steam crackers from June/July maintenance.

5
 Gasoline: West African demand takes a hit, much to the alarm of European
refiners
• Revisions: Relative to the last edition of this report, we lengthened our global 2H 2023
Implied* Global Gasoline S/D Balance, mmb/d gasoline balance by 60 kb/d, coming mostly from lower demand in West Africa.
1.0 • We have revised African gasoline demand lower for June to December by 70 kb/d
0.6 relative to the last edition of this report. This comes on the back of surging retail prices
across West Africa following the planned removal in end-June of a key Nigerian subsidy
0.2
on gasoline. The looming end of the Nigerian practice of swapping crude for gasoline
-0.2 imports may also trigger supply shortfalls as key suppliers may be wary of counterparty
risk. Angolan retail prices also doubled following a partial removal of subsidies there. A
-0.6
reduction in exports of EU gasoline to West Africa – also due to rising competition with
-1.0 Russia – is bad news for EU refiners as it will be difficult to find new buyers for low
Jan Apr Jul Oct quality gasoline and blendstocks, such as high-sulphur straight-run FCC gasoline.
2023 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024
• The European gasoline balance for 2023 is 230 kb/d tighter than the 2015-2019
* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook average (see slide 30). Almost 90 kb/d of this comes from higher demand as consumers
Gasoline Product Cracks, $/bbl shun diesel vehicles in favour of gasoline-powered ones (and EVs). The balance also
40 tightened as some 140 kb/d of gasoline supplies were lost due to capacity shutdowns
since 2019.
30
• Increased blending of cheap naphtha into the gasoline pool as well as high FCC
20 utilisation, as indicated by persistently elevated inputs of secondary feedstocks in US
refineries, have tightened the US octane market, pushing 93 Gasoline to a $15/bbl
10
premium over 87 Gasoline on the USGC. We see further upside to octane spreads in
Market = Forward curve @ 28 June July and August, before they ease in September on the spec shift.
0
Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Jan-24 Mar-24
Sing vs Dubai Market (Sing) • We expect gasoline crack strength to persist in summer but decline sharply in
EurobobE5 barge vs Brent Market (NWE)
Source: Platts*, FGE, ICE, NYMEX October once winter grade specs allow for more blending of cheap butane.
NYH RBOB vs WTI Market (NYH)
However, we expect Asian gasoline cracks to be supported in 4Q by tighter regional
balances. Consequently, our Asian crack is more optimistic than the forward curve.

6
 Jet/Kero: Airplane efficiency gains to keep demand lower than pre-
pandemic levels, despite commercial flight activity having rebounded
Implied* Global Jet/Kero S/D Balance, mmb/d
0.6

0.4 • Revisions: Relative to the last edition of this report, global jet/kero balances for 2H
2023 were tightened by 100 kb/d, coming largely from the supply side. The largest
0.2
downward revision was done to the FSU as we shifted some 50 kb/d of Russian jet
0.0 supply into diesel.

-0.2 • We have long been assuming a boost in air travel due to pent-up post pandemic
demand, and this has indeed been the case. For instance, international flights out of
-0.4
Europe have already exceeded 2019 levels by around 6%. This has contributed to
Jan Apr Jul Oct
global commercial flight activity returning to 2019 levels, despite international flights out
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024
of China lagging pre-pandemic levels by over 20%.
* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook
• But rising air fleet efficiencies are taking a toll on jet fuel demand, meaning that it will
Jet/Diesel Regrade (Jet-Diesel), $/bbl take more than a return of flight activity to pre-pandemic levels to bring demand
20 back to 2019 levels. Indeed, we expect December 2023 global jet/kero demand to lag
December 2019 demand by a whopping 730 kb/d, even though flight activity this
15
summer is already matching 2019 levels.
Market = Forward curve @ 28 June
10
• We continue to expect jet/kero cracks to mirror diesel cracks. With 2H 2023 jet
5 demand lagging 2019 levels by 800 kb/d on average, there is ample spare capacity to
shift more diesel into the jet fuel pool if needed. As a result, we expect regrades to
0
remain at a slight structural discount to diesel in all regions, at least on a monthly
-5 average basis. Further pressure on the regrade will likely come in 4Q, as lower gasoline
Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Jan-24 cracks will reduce the pull on kero from the naphtha pool. Forward curves showing a
Sing Market Sing NWE Market NWE USGC positive regrade look mispriced to us.
Source: Platts*, FGE

7
 Gasoil/Diesel: Atlantic Basin cracks protected by price floor; Asian cracks
capped by Chinese exports
Implied* Global Gasoil/Diesel S/D Balance, mmb/d • Revisions: Relative to the last edition of this report, we have tightened our gasoil/diesel
2.0 balances for 2H 2023 by 120 kb/d. We revised Middle Eastern supply down by around
1.5 120 kb/d as the start-up of the Jizan hydrocracker was delayed to end-2023. However,
1.0 this was partially offset by higher supplies from Russia due to both higher runs and yield
0.5 shifts from jet/kero into diesel. FSU supplies for 2H increased by around 90 kb/d. Global
0.0 demand for gasoil/diesel was also revised 50 kb/d higher for 2H.
-0.5
-1.0
• Diesel spot cracks spiked in June, temporarily bringing them back to $30/bbl in NWE.
This has been due to: 1) large refinery outages; 2) low Rhine water levels; 3) reduced
-1.5
June-loading Indian diesel exports due to a cyclone; 4) heavy Russian maintenance in
-2.0
May and June; and 5) liquidation of managed money short positions. Fundamentally, the
Jan Apr Jul Oct
aforementioned factors are all on the supply side, while demand for diesel remains
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024 poor amid the slowdown in manufacturing. Weak demand, combined with the short-term
* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook nature of supply outages, is the key reason why we do not expect the high cracks to
persist and expect NWE cracks to fall back towards $20/bbl.
Diesel Product Cracks, $/bbl
60
• While the Atlantic Basin diesel market is protected by a price floor that factors in
Market = Forward curve @ 28 June higher clean freight costs to arb in marginal barrels from India or further abroad, the
50 East of Suez market is penalised by these same freight costs. In a low demand
40
environment this works as a ceiling on Asian cracks, because if they get too high, the
arb closes. There is also a ceiling in place on Asian diesel cracks due to China: if
30 Asian cracks rise too quickly and outshine the domestic Chinese market, China will hike
20 exports given ample product export quotas.

10 • Therefore, our Asian diesel crack forecast remains well below the forward curve,
and we would rather see the risk to the forecast skewed to the downside. If refiners
0
Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Jan-24 Mar-24 exiting spring maintenance ramp runs back up to 1H levels, balances will lengthen
Sing vs Dubai Market (Sing) NWE vs Brent unduly, pressuring prices. We expect Asian crude intake to be 600 kb/d lower in 2H
Market (NWE) NYH ULSD vs WTI Market (NYH) Source: Platts, FGE, ICE, NYMEX 2023 than in 1H 2023.

8
 Fuel Oil: Peak HSFO and VLSFO supply tightness now behind us

• Revisions: Relative to the last edition of this report, the April–July fuel oil balance was
Implied* Global Fuel Oil S/D Balance, mmb/d tightened by 100 kb/d, split almost equally between higher demand and lower supply.
1.0
• Global HSFO cracks are still riding high from the OPEC+ cuts which have reduced
0.5 supply at the margin, compounding the loss of some 300 kb/d that has been flowing to
China in recent months for use as a secondary feed. Fewer exports out of Russia
0.0 further tightened supplies, as did seasonally elevated secondary feedstock intake along
the USGC. Increased use of HSFO as a feedstock is reducing availability for end users.
-0.5 European cracks have gone through the roof as the region must pull in marginal barrels
from the Middle East, a region that is seeing peak summer HSFO burning demand.
-1.0
Jan Apr Jul Oct
• The tightness should continue in summer with the additional Saudi Arabian output cuts
in July (and August we think) adding further support. An easing will come in 4Q as: 1)
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024
Chinese interest in HSFO wanes given a new batch of crude import quotas and
* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook shrinking fuel oil import quotas; flows of diluted bitumen to China will also pick up as the
dust settles on the mislabelling scandal; 2) HSFO demand from the Middle East ebbs
HSFO Product Cracks, $/bbl seasonally from September; and 3) more medium and heavy crude should enter the
0 market once the additional voluntary Saudi cuts are ended.

-10 • Therefore, we agree with the forward curves that peak HSFO cracks have already
been reached and the risk is now skewed to the downside – assuming we do not
-20 see further OPEC+ cuts.

-30 • Asian VLSFO strength is expected to follow gasoline cracks lower from September.
Market = Forward curve @ 28 June Current strength is driven by the supply-side following several months of weak straight-
-40 trun margins for sweet crude in Singapore. Inflows from the Atlantic Basin were
Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Jan-24 Mar-24
constrained by a persistently strong pre-summer and then summer gasoline season. We
Sing vs Dubai NWE vs Brent USGC vs WTI Source: expect a rapid fall in gasoline cracks once summer RVP constraints are lifted,
Market (Sing) Market (NWE) Market (USGC) Platts, FGE, NYMEX
particularly given an abundance of cheap butane. Further supply-side pressure is
expected to stem from the start-up of the third train of the al Zour refinery in 3Q 2023.

9
 2. Notes

Please note that all data in this report, including refinery runs, product consumption and output, and net trade balances are available for subscribers on our Oil Online Data
Service - ODS.

The source for all charts in this report is FGE’s databases, unless otherwise stipulated.

The term “5-year average” refers to 2015-2019.

For more detailed regional coverage, please refer to FGE’s regional reports:

• FGE US Oil Monthly

• FGE Latin America Monthly

• FGE European Monthly

• FGE Africa Monthly

• FGE Middle East Monthly

• FGE FSU Monthly

• FGE Asia Pacific Monthly

10
3. Global Refinery Throughput by Region
 Global refinery runs by region (1)

World, mmb/d North America, mmb/d

90 20

85 19

80 18

75 17

70 16
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024 2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

Latin America, mmb/d Europe, mmb/d

6.5 14
6.0
5.5 13
5.0
12
4.5
4.0 11
3.5
3.0 10
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024 2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

12
 Global refinery runs by region (2)

Middle East, mmb/d Asia, mmb/d

11.0 32
10.5 31
10.0 30
9.5 29
9.0 28
8.5 27
8.0 26
7.5 25
7.0 24
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024 2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

FSU, mmb/d Africa, mmb/d

7.5 2.5
2.3
7.0
2.1
6.5
1.9
6.0
1.7
5.5 1.5
5.0 1.3
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024 2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

13
 Global light distillates & middle distillates supply/demand balances

Implied* Global Light Distillates S/D Balance, mmb/d Implied* Global Middle Distillate S/D Balance, mmb/d
1.5 2.0

1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5

0.0 0.0

-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
-1.5

-1.5 -2.0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct

2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024 2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

• Light distillates: Naphtha + Gasoline • Middle distillates: Jet/Kerosene + Gasoil/Diesel

* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook

14
4. Naphtha Supply and Demand Outlook
Global overview, North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, FSU, and Asia
 Naphtha supply/demand outlook – Overview

Implied* Global Naphtha S/D Balance, kb/d Y-o-Y Change in S/D Balances by Region
Current Month, kb/d
600
800

400

400

200

0
0

-400 -200

-400
-800
Jan Apr Jul Oct
-600
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024
NA EU LA ME FSU AP AF Total

* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook

16
 Naphtha supply/demand balance outlook change from last month,
by region
Y-o-Y Change in S/D Balances by Region Y-o-Y Change in S/D Balances by Region
Last Month, kb/d Current Month, kb/d

600 600

400 400

200 200

0 0

-200 -200

-400 -400

-600 -600
3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24

NA EU LA ME FSU AP AF Total NA EU LA ME FSU AP AF Total

17
 Naphtha supply/demand outlook – North America

North America Naphtha S/D Balance, kb/d North America Naphtha S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

70 25

60

50 20

40

30
15
20

10
10
0

-10

-20 5

-30
Jan Apr Jul Oct
0
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE US Oil Monthly

18
 Naphtha supply/demand outlook – Latin America

Latin America Naphtha S/D Balance, kb/d Latin America Naphtha S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

70 45

40
20
35

-30 30

25
-80 20

15
-130
10

-180 5

0
-230
-5

-10
-280
Jan Apr Jul Oct -15
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Latin America Monthly

19
 Naphtha supply/demand outlook – Europe

Europe Naphtha S/D Balance, kb/d Europe Naphtha S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

450 160

400
140
350

300 120

250
100
200
80
150

100 60
50
40
0

-50 20

-100
Jan Apr Jul Oct 0
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE European Monthly

20
 Naphtha supply/demand outlook – Africa

Africa Naphtha S/D Balance, kb/d Africa Naphtha S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

350 20

330

310

290
10
270

250

230

210 0

190

170

150
Jan Apr Jul Oct -10
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Africa Monthly

21
 Naphtha supply/demand outlook – Middle East

Middle East Naphtha S/D Balance, kb/d Middle East Naphtha S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d
200
1,250

1,200

150
1,150

1,100
100
1,050

1,000
50
950

900
0
850

800
Jan Apr Jul Oct -50
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Middle East Monthly

22
 Naphtha supply/demand outlook – FSU

FSU Naphtha S/D Balance, kb/d FSU Naphtha S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

700 15

10
600
5

500
0

400 -5

-10
300
-15

200 -20

100 -25

-30
0
Jan Apr Jul Oct -35
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE FSU Monthly

23
 Naphtha supply/demand outlook – Asia

Asia Naphtha S/D Balance, kb/d Asia Naphtha S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

-900 40

20
-1,000
0
-1,100
-20

-1,200 -40

-60
-1,300
-80
-1,400
-100

-1,500 -120

-1,600 -140

-160
-1,700
Jan Apr Jul Oct -180
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Asia Oil Monthly

24
5. Gasoline Supply and Demand Outlook
Global overview, North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, FSU and Asia
 Gasoline supply/demand outlook – Overview

Implied* Global Gasoline S/D Balance, mmb/d Y-o-Y Quarterly Change in S/D Balances by Region
Current Month, kb/d
800
1.0

0.6
400

0.2

0
-0.2

-0.6
-400

-1.0
Jan Apr Jul Oct
-800
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2023 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024
NA EU LA ME FSU AP AF Total

* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook

26
 Gasoline supply/demand balance outlook change from last month,
by region
Y-o-Y Quarterly Change in S/D Balances by Region Y-o-Y Quarterly Change in S/D Balances by Region
Last Month, kb/d Current Month, kb/d
800
800

400
400

0 0

-400 -400

-800 -800
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24 1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24

NA EU LA ME FSU AP AF Total NA EU LA ME FSU AP AF Total

27
 Gasoline supply/demand outlook – North America

North America Gasoline S/D Balance, kb/d North America Gasoline S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

1,200 300

1,000 250

800 200

600 150

400 100

200 50

0 0

-200 -50

-400 -100

-600 -150
Jan Apr Jul Oct
-200
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024 1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE US Oil Monthly

28
 Gasoline supply/demand outlook – Latin America

Latin America Gasoline S/D Balance, kb/d Latin America Gasoline S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

-600 20

-700 0

-800 -20

-900 -40

-1,000 -60

-1,100 -80

-100
-1,200

-120
-1,300
Jan Apr Jul Oct
-140
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024 1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Latin America Monthly

29
 Gasoline supply/demand outlook – Europe

Europe Gasoline S/D Balance, kb/d Europe Gasoline S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

1,600 0
European gasoline length is shrinking on
1,400 a combination of lower refinery throughput -50
(shutdown-related) and stronger demand
1,200
-100
1,000

-150
800

600 -200

400
-250

200
-300
0
Jan Apr Jul Oct
-350
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE European Monthly

30
 Gasoline supply/demand outlook – Africa

Africa Gasoline S/D Balance, kb/d Africa Gasoline S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

-600 100

50
-700

-800
-50

-900 -100

-150
-1,000
-200

-1,100
-250

-300
-1,200
Jan Apr Jul Oct
-350
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024 1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Africa Monthly

31
 Gasoline supply/demand outlook – Middle East

Middle East Gasoline S/D Balance, kb/d Middle East Gasoline S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

300 500

200 450

100 400

0 350

-100 300

-200 250

-300 200

-400 150

-500 100

-600 50
Jan Apr Jul Oct
0
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024 1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Middle East Monthly

32
 Gasoline supply/demand outlook – FSU

FSU Gasoline S/D Balance, kb/d FSU Gasoline S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

600 350

500 300

400 250

200
300

150
200

100
100

50
0
Jan Apr Jul Oct
0
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024 1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE FSU Monthly

33
 Gasoline supply/demand outlook – Asia

Asia Gasoline S/D Balance, kb/d Asia Gasoline S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

300 100

200
50

100
0
0

-50
-100

-200 -100

-300
-150

-400
-200
-500
Jan Apr Jul Oct
-250
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024 1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Asia Oil Monthly

34
6. Jet/Kerosene Supply and Demand Outlook
Global overview, North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, FSU and Asia
 Jet/Kerosene supply/demand outlook – Overview

Implied* Global Jet/Kero S/D Balance, mmb/d Y-o-Y Quarterly Change in S/D Balances by Region
Current Month, kb/d
400
0.6

200
0.4

0
0.2

-200
0.0

-400
-0.2

-600
-0.4
Jan Apr Jul Oct
-800
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024 NA EU LA ME FSU AP AF Total

* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook

36
 Jet/Kerosene supply/demand balance outlook change from last month,
by region
Y-o-Y Quarterly Change in S/D Balances by Region Y-o-Y Quarterly Change in S/D Balances by Region
Last Month, kb/d Current Month, kb/d
400
400

200
200

0
0

-200
-200

-400 -400

-600 -600

-800 -800
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24 1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24

NA EU LA ME FSU AP AF Total
NA EU LA ME FSU AP AF Total

37
 Jet/Kerosene supply/demand outlook – North America

North America Jet/Kero S/D Balance, kb/d North America Jet/Kerosene S/D vs 2015-2019 Average,
kb/d
250
80
200
60
150
40
100

50 20

0 0

-50 -20

-100
-40
-150
-60
-200
-80
-250
Jan Apr Jul Oct -100
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE US Oil Monthly

38
 Jet/Kerosene supply/demand outlook – Latin America

Latin America Jet/Kero S/D Balance, kb/d Latin America Jet/Kerosene S/D vs 2015-2019 Average,
kb/d
0
0

-10
-50
-20

-100 -30

-40

-150 -50

-60
-200
-70

-80
-250
Jan Apr Jul Oct -90
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Latin America Monthly

39
 Jet/Kerosene supply/demand outlook – Europe

Europe Jet/Kero S/D Balance, kb/d Euorpe Jet/Kerosene S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

0
0

-100 -10

-20

-200 -30

-40
-300
-50

-400 -60

-70

-500 -80

-90
-600
Jan Apr Jul Oct -100
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE European Monthly

40
 Jet/Kerosene supply/demand outlook – Africa

Africa Jet/Kero S/D Balance, kb/d Africa Jet/Kerosene S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

20
80
0
60
-20

40
-40

20
-60

-80 0

-100 -20

-120
-40

-140
Jan Apr Jul Oct -60
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Africa Monthly

41
 Jet/Kerosene supply/demand outlook – Middle East

Middle East Jet/Kero S/D Balance, kb/d Middle East Jet/Kerosene S/D vs 2015-2019 Average,
kb/d
700
100

600
50
500

0
400

-50
300

200 -100

100
-150

0
Jan Apr Jul Oct -200
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Middle East Monthly

42
 Jet/Kerosene supply/demand outlook – FSU

FSU Jet/Kero S/D Balance, kb/d FSU Jet/Kerosene S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

200
100

90
150
80

70
100
60

50
50
40

30
0
20

10
-50
Jan Apr Jul Oct 0
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE FSU Monthly

43
 Jet/Kerosene supply/demand outlook – Asia

Asia Jet/Kero S/D Balance, kb/d Asia Jet/Kerosene S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

900
250
800
200
700

150
600

100
500

400 50

300 0

200
-50

100
-100
0
Jan Apr Jul Oct -150
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Asia Oil Monthly

44
7. Gasoil/Diesel Supply and Demand Outlook
Global overview, North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, FSU and Asia
 Gasoil/Diesel supply/demand outlook – Overview

Implied* Global Gasoil/Diesel S/D Balance, mmb/d Y-o-Y Quarterly Change in S/D Balances by Region
Current Month, kb/d
2.0
1,500

1.5

1.0 1,000

0.5
500
0.0

-0.5 0

-1.0
-500
-1.5

-2.0 -1,000
Jan Apr Jul Oct 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24

2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024 NA EU LA ME FSU AP AF Total

* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook

46
 Gasoil/Diesel supply/demand balance outlook change from last month,
by region
Y-o-Y Quarterly Change in S/D Balances by Region Y-o-Y Quarterly Change in S/D Balances by Region
Last Month, kb/d Current Month, kb/d
1,400
1,400
1,200
1,200

1,000 1,000

800 800

600 600

400 400

200 200

0 0

-200 -200
-400 -400
-600 -600
-800 -800
-1,000 -1,000
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24 1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24

NA EU LA ME FSU AP AF Total NA EU LA ME FSU AP AF Total

47
 Gasoil/Diesel supply/demand outlook – North America

North America Gasoil/Diesel S/D Balance, kb/d North America Gasoil/Diesel S/D vs 2015-2019 Average,
kb/d
1,800
300

1,600
250
1,400
200
1,200

150
1,000

800 100

600 50

400 0

200
-50
0
Jan Apr Jul Oct -100
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE US Oil Monthly

48
 Gasoil/Diesel supply/demand outlook – Latin America

Latin America Gasoil/Diesel S/D Balance, mmb/d Latin America Gasoil/Diesel S/D vs 2015-2019 Average,
kb/d
0.0
0

-0.2
-50

-0.4
-100

-0.6
-150

-0.8
-200

-1.0
-250

-1.2
-300

-1.4
-350
-1.6
Jan Apr Jul Oct -400
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Latin America Monthly

49
 Gasoil/Diesel supply/demand outlook – Europe

Europe Gasoil/Diesel S/D Balance, kb/d Europe Gasoil/Diesel S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

0
200
-200

150
-400

-600
100

-800
50
-1,000

-1,200 0

-1,400
-50
-1,600

-1,800 -100

-2,000
Jan Apr Jul Oct -150
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE European Monthly

50
 Gasoil/Diesel supply/demand outlook – Africa

Africa Gasoil/Diesel S/D Balance, kb/d Africa Gasoil/Diesel S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

-800
0
-850

-900
-50
-950

-1,000
-100
-1,050

-1,100
-150
-1,150

-1,200
-200
-1,250

-1,300
Jan Apr Jul Oct -250
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Africa Monthly

51
 Gasoil/Diesel supply/demand outlook – Middle East

Middle East Gasoil/Diesel S/D Balance, kb/d Middle East Gasoil/Diesel S/D vs 2015-2019 Average,
kb/d
1,800
900

1,600 800

700
1,400

600
1,200
500

1,000
400

800 300

200
600
100
400
Jan Apr Jul Oct 0
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Middle East Monthly

52
 Gasoil/Diesel supply/demand outlook – FSU

FSU Gasoil/Diesel S/D Balance, kb/d FSU Gasoil/Diesel S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

1,200
120

1,100 100

1,000 80

60
900
40
800
20

700 0

600 -20

-40
500
-60
400
Jan Apr Jul Oct -80
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE FSU Monthly

53
 Gasoil/Diesel supply/demand outlook – Asia

Asia Gasoil/Diesel S/D Balance, kb/d Asia Gasoil/Diesel S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

1,400
600

1,200
500

1,000 400

800 300

200
600

100
400
0
200
-100

0
Jan Apr Jul Oct -200
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022
2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Asia Oil Monthly

54
8. Fuel Oil Supply and Demand Outlook
Global overview, North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, FSU and Asia
 Fuel Oil supply/demand outlook – Overview

Implied* Global Fuel Oil S/D Balance, mmb/d Y-o-Y Change in S/D Balances by Region
Current Month, kb/d
800
1.0
600

0.5 400

200

0.0
0

-200
-0.5

-400

-1.0 -600
Jan Apr Jul Oct

-800
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024
NA EU LA ME FSU AP AF Total
* with 2019 as base year as in FGE’s World Refining Outlook

56
 Fuel Oil supply/demand balance outlook change from last month,
by region
Y-o-Y Change in S/D Balances by Region Y-o-Y Change in S/D Balances by Region
Last Month, kb/d Current Month, kb/d
600
600

400
400

200
200

0 0

-200 -200

-400 -400

-600
-600
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
1Q 22 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
NA EU LA ME FSU AP AF Total NA EU LA ME FSU AP AF Total

57
 Fuel Oil Supply/Demand Outlook – North America

North America Fuel Oil S/D Balance, kb/d North America Fuel Oil S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

350
0
300
-20
250
-40
200
-60
150
-80
100
-100
50
-120
0
-140
-50
-160
-100
-180
-150
Jan Apr Jul Oct -200
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE US Oil Monthly

58
 Fuel Oil supply/demand outlook – Latin America

Latin America Fuel Oil S/D Balance, kb/d Latin America Fuel Oil S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

400
180
350
160
300
140
250
120
200

150 100

100 80

50 60

0
40
-50
20
-100
Jan Apr Jul Oct 0
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Latin America Monthly

59
 Fuel Oil supply/demand outlook – Europe

Europe Fuel Oil S/D Balance, kb/d Europe Fuel Oil S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

600
0

500 -50

400 -100

-150
300

-200
200

-250

100
-300

0
Jan Apr Jul Oct -350
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE European Monthly

60
 Fuel Oil supply/demand outlook – Africa

Africa Fuel Oil S/D Balance, kb/d Africa Fuel Oil S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

250
140

200
120

150 100

100 80

50 60

40
0

20
-50
0
-100
-20
-150
Jan Apr Jul Oct -40
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Africa Monthly

61
 Fuel Oil supply/demand outlook – Middle East

Middle East Fuel Oil S/D Balance, kb/d Middle East Fuel Oil S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

900
200
800
150
700
100
600
50
500
0
400
-50
300
-100
200
-150
100
-200
0
Jan Apr Jul Oct -250
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Middle East Monthly

62
 Fuel Oil supply/demand outlook – FSU

FSU Fuel Oil S/D Balance, kb/d FSU Fuel Oil S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

1,300
0
1,200

1,100 -50

1,000
-100
900

800 -150

700
-200
600

500 -250

400
Jan Apr Jul Oct -300
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE FSU Monthly

63
 Fuel Oil supply/demand outlook – Asia

Asia Fuel Oil S/D Balance, kb/d Asia Fuel Oil S/D vs 2015-2019 Average, kb/d

-600
300
-700

-800 250

-900
200
-1,000

-1,100 150

-1,200
100
-1,300

-1,400 50

-1,500
Jan Apr Jul Oct 0
1Q 23 2Q 23 3Q 23 4Q 23 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 4Q 24
2015-19 Range 2015-19 Average 2022 2023 2024

For more detailed coverage, please see our regional publication FGE Asia Oil Monthly

64
9. Data Tables
 Naphtha & Gasoline

Regional Naphtha S/D Balances

kb/d Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24
North America 34 37 45 24 33 37 44 40 30 14 23 41 33 20 32 23 31 36 43 39 29 13 22 39
month-on-month change 53 3 8 -21 9 4 7 -4 -10 -16 9 18 -7 -14 12 -9 8 5 6 -4 -10 -16 9 18
year-on-year change 3 -2 18 10 -0 9 4 17 10 -9 34 59 -0 -17 -13 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
Europe 312 289 229 265 261 237 254 304 293 343 325 282 235 261 232 235 256 225 260 311 318 378 340 288
month-on-month change -52 -23 -60 36 -4 -24 17 50 -11 50 -18 -43 -48 26 -28 2 22 -31 34 52 7 60 -38 -52
year-on-year change 351 267 85 82 133 76 -25 -30 -57 -54 17 -82 -78 -28 3 -30 -4 -12 6 8 25 35 15 6
Latin America -25 -95 -39 -47 -42 -38 -67 -68 -49 -48 -24 -38 -23 -87 -68 -75 -62 -55 -82 -79 -56 -57 -34 -46
month-on-month change 34 -70 56 -8 5 5 -29 -1 19 1 24 -14 16 -64 19 -7 13 7 -27 3 23 -0 23 -13
year-on-year change 20 -57 11 -27 -33 -33 -62 -41 -21 -34 28 21 3 8 -29 -27 -20 -17 -16 -11 -7 -8 -9 -8
Middle East 970 976 982 980 992 1,086 1,082 1,082 1,051 1,086 1,073 1,106 1,122 1,080 1,053 1,039 1,093 1,146 1,186 1,165 1,140 1,172 1,144 1,190
month-on-month change -66 6 6 -3 13 94 -4 -0 -31 35 -14 34 16 -42 -27 -14 54 53 40 -20 -25 31 -28 46
year-on-year change -49 72 98 47 48 77 97 71 124 142 108 70 152 104 71 60 100 59 103 83 90 86 71 83
FSU 573 586 543 517 508 488 467 535 519 471 543 528 530 550 493 466 519 500 451 517 529 482 536 518
month-on-month change 155 12 -43 -26 -9 -21 -21 68 -16 -48 72 -14 2 20 -58 -27 53 -18 -49 65 12 -47 54 -19
year-on-year change -24 -15 133 244 165 94 125 129 70 57 110 111 -43 -35 -50 -51 10 13 -16 -18 10 11 -6 -11
Asia Pacific -1,695 -1,522 -1,558 -1,442 -1,255 -1,288 -1,397 -1,348 -1,341 -1,482 -1,483 -1,450 -1,598 -1,633 -1,522 -1,554 -1,445 -1,316 -1,569 -1,495 -1,361 -1,535 -1,554 -1,640
month-on-month change 52 174 -37 116 187 -33 -109 49 7 -142 -1 33 -148 -35 111 -32 109 129 -253 73 134 -174 -19 -86
year-on-year change 90 73 -305 -111 22 -93 87 225 47 11 214 297 97 -111 36 -112 -190 -28 -172 -148 -21 -52 -71 -190
Africa 240 273 267 261 254 277 252 267 250 242 276 275 242 264 287 277 253 275 249 263 245 240 272 261
month-on-month change -31 33 -6 -6 -7 23 -25 15 -17 -7 33 -1 -32 21 24 -10 -24 22 -26 14 -18 -6 32 -11
year-on-year change -34 -10 -26 -42 -33 -9 -7 -0 -11 -5 12 4 2 -9 20 16 -1 -2 -4 -4 -4 -3 -4 -14

Regional Gasoline S/D Balances

kb/d Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24
North America 672 91 -395 -404 -472 -269 -145 -128 16 140 753 1,035 525 86 -237 -141 -315 -270 -53 -201 25 72 684 965
month-on-month change 276 -582 -485 -9 -68 203 124 17 144 123 614 282 -510 -439 -323 96 -174 44 217 -148 226 47 611 281
year-on-year change -271 -43 -262 -214 -111 -164 -451 9 -179 -72 183 639 -147 -4 158 263 157 -1 92 -73 9 -67 -70 -70
Europe 1,028 723 577 595 618 623 700 766 698 667 792 837 1,126 883 751 664 674 594 707 809 720 671 822 854
month-on-month change 258 -305 -146 18 23 5 77 66 -68 -31 126 45 289 -243 -132 -88 10 -80 113 103 -89 -49 152 32
year-on-year change 11 -50 -126 -178 -156 8 19 142 154 177 164 67 98 160 174 69 56 -29 6 43 22 4 30 17
Latin America -933 -1,095 -1,059 -1,071 -980 -971 -990 -943 -949 -1,047 -1,041 -1,144 -973 -1,051 -1,030 -1,070 -1,005 -1,002 -1,008 -1,001 -1,020 -1,118 -1,096 -1,250
month-on-month change 287 -162 36 -12 91 9 -19 47 -7 -97 6 -103 171 -78 21 -40 65 3 -6 7 -19 -97 21 -154
year-on-year change -109 -136 -134 -106 -52 88 24 118 147 -52 8 77 -39 44 28 1 -25 -31 -18 -58 -71 -71 -56 -107
Middle East -86 -102 -100 0 -134 -103 -21 -46 -66 -67 -188 -44 125 -3 -26 27 98 91 211 170 138 121 110 172
month-on-month change -25 -16 2 100 -134 31 82 -25 -20 -0 -121 144 169 -128 -23 52 71 -7 120 -42 -32 -16 -11 61
year-on-year change -5 38 34 0 -156 79 77 64 7 7 -175 17 211 99 74 27 231 194 232 215 204 188 298 215
FSU 393 356 341 240 194 241 263 276 174 150 306 356 232 230 188 136 172 220 200 185 123 112 262 277
month-on-month change -125 -37 -15 -101 -46 46 22 14 -102 -25 157 50 -125 -2 -42 -52 36 48 -20 -15 -62 -12 150 15
year-on-year change -23 28 45 101 -6 -54 -113 -77 -171 -231 -187 -162 -161 -126 -153 -105 -22 -21 -63 -92 -51 -38 -44 -79
Asia Pacific 58 41 -240 -249 -217 -254 -91 48 -105 -282 -214 -185 211 29 -255 -144 -281 -60 -97 -375 -137 -454 -119 -63
month-on-month change 97 -17 -281 -9 32 -37 162 139 -153 -176 68 28 396 -181 -284 111 -137 221 -37 -278 237 -317 335 56
year-on-year change -97 -111 -365 -164 -20 -171 27 251 228 -50 -117 -146 153 -12 -15 105 -64 193 -6 -423 -32 -173 94 122
Africa -1,063 -1,002 -1,067 -1,042 -1,041 -965 -936 -980 -994 -955 -970 -968 -942 -940 -994 -977 -987 -887 -797 -794 -808 -753 -734 -716
month-on-month change -12 61 -65 25 1 76 29 -44 -13 38 -15 2 27 2 -54 17 -9 100 90 2 -14 55 19 19
year-on-year change -125 -61 -10 30 21 74 115 123 67 34 68 82 121 62 73 65 55 78 139 186 185 202 236 253

66
 Jet/Kerosene & Gasoil/Diesel

Regional Jet/Kerosene S/D Balances

kb/d Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24
North America 76 32 40 96 60 43 107 99 29 -176 35 98 30 -54 -52 49 78 46 113 104 34 -176 40 105
month-on-month change 147 -44 8 56 -36 -17 64 -8 -70 -205 210 63 -68 -84 2 102 29 -32 66 -8 -71 -210 216 65
year-on-year change -43 -41 158 -61 -110 114 9 94 -16 -186 -52 169 -46 -86 -92 -47 19 4 6 5 4 -1 5 7
Europe -118 -212 -349 -346 -338 -428 -454 -433 -434 -411 -251 -261 -153 -234 -309 -382 -408 -492 -479 -441 -451 -450 -270 -281
month-on-month change 188 -94 -137 3 8 -89 -27 22 -1 23 160 -10 108 -81 -75 -74 -26 -83 13 38 -10 1 180 -12
year-on-year change -97 -157 -81 -95 -190 -219 -111 -36 -84 51 21 45 -35 -21 40 -36 -70 -64 -25 -8 -17 -39 -19 -20
Latin America -202 -183 -166 -182 -159 -164 -201 -182 -153 -163 -165 -183 -199 -182 -179 -171 -155 -163 -206 -185 -157 -168 -176 -198
month-on-month change -23 18 17 -16 23 -5 -37 19 29 -9 -2 -18 -16 16 3 8 17 -8 -43 21 28 -11 -8 -21
year-on-year change -59 -49 -15 -50 -6 2 -20 -10 5 16 2 -4 3 1 -12 11 4 2 -5 -3 -4 -6 -12 -15
Middle East 266 298 303 345 300 346 411 385 353 307 302 358 391 392 394 413 463 468 537 482 439 473 448 440
month-on-month change -70 32 5 42 -45 46 66 -26 -32 -46 -6 57 33 1 3 19 50 5 69 -55 -42 33 -25 -8
year-on-year change -1 106 39 67 -91 8 30 -28 20 18 30 22 125 94 91 68 163 122 126 97 87 166 146 81
FSU 100 96 97 96 103 126 142 125 102 81 92 90 48 37 33 35 60 83 87 67 63 43 49 41
month-on-month change -16 -4 0 -1 7 23 16 -17 -23 -21 10 -2 -42 -11 -4 2 25 23 4 -21 -4 -20 6 -8
year-on-year change 19 -28 -47 26 15 -4 -14 -16 -37 -46 -18 -27 -52 -59 -64 -61 -42 -43 -55 -59 -39 -38 -43 -49
Asia Pacific 440 426 423 393 514 411 465 502 472 327 259 77 84 84 283 342 358 505 546 573 525 363 258 71
month-on-month change 70 -14 -3 -30 121 -103 54 37 -30 -145 -68 -182 8 0 199 59 15 147 41 27 -47 -162 -105 -187
year-on-year change 27 -5 -107 -243 -98 -127 -102 -179 -317 -189 -308 -293 -356 -341 -140 -51 -156 93 80 70 53 36 -1 -6
Africa -131 -93 -111 -99 -117 -104 -116 -109 -126 -124 -116 -118 -80 -71 -61 -51 -23 -17 -48 -19 -18 3 -42 5
month-on-month change -11 38 -17 12 -19 13 -12 7 -16 1 9 -2 38 8 11 10 28 6 -31 29 1 21 -45 47
year-on-year change -47 6 -15 -9 -17 -8 4 -19 -5 -2 -11 2 52 22 50 47 94 87 68 91 108 128 74 123

Regional Gasoil/Diesel S/D Balances

kb/d Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24
North America 998 762 706 950 1,004 1,414 1,567 1,337 1,023 544 1,358 1,558 710 412 809 1,040 1,158 1,532 1,651 1,419 1,023 544 1,359 1,558
month-on-month change -329 -236 -56 244 54 410 152 -230 -314 -479 814 200 -847 -298 397 231 118 374 119 -231 -397 -479 815 199
year-on-year change 305 179 -260 -171 -135 159 62 -24 -189 -500 22 230 -288 -350 102 89 154 117 84 83 -0 -0 1 1
Europe -303 -1,376 -1,423 -907 -1,054 -1,198 -1,003 -956 -1,514 -1,488 -1,247 -954 -377 -1,125 -1,132 -1,018 -927 -1,185 -866 -807 -1,322 -1,271 -1,041 -786
month-on-month change 745 -1,073 -47 516 -147 -145 195 47 -558 25 241 293 577 -748 -7 114 91 -259 319 59 -515 51 229 255
year-on-year change 480 393 126 196 -12 -78 -64 239 267 -131 46 94 -74 251 291 -110 127 13 137 149 192 218 206 168
Latin America -1,001 -1,256 -1,388 -1,391 -1,225 -1,212 -1,190 -1,209 -1,242 -1,347 -1,278 -1,083 -1,037 -1,197 -1,261 -1,311 -1,242 -1,300 -1,264 -1,278 -1,287 -1,397 -1,342 -1,168
month-on-month change 219 -255 -132 -3 166 13 22 -19 -33 -105 68 196 46 -161 -63 -50 69 -58 36 -13 -10 -110 55 174
year-on-year change -95 -77 -145 -275 32 84 71 176 166 -52 -43 138 -35 59 127 80 -17 -88 -75 -69 -45 -50 -64 -86
Middle East 972 1,072 1,257 1,554 1,294 1,336 1,285 1,264 1,262 1,309 1,169 1,153 1,321 1,528 1,632 1,636 1,504 1,644 1,674 1,604 1,622 1,733 1,564 1,572
month-on-month change -86 99 185 297 -260 42 -51 -21 -2 46 -139 -17 168 207 103 5 -132 140 29 -69 18 111 -169 8
year-on-year change -35 8 150 186 115 93 -27 147 97 71 -133 94 349 457 375 83 211 309 389 340 360 425 395 419
FSU 1,136 1,099 1,020 794 808 894 905 875 631 585 928 983 981 989 832 658 815 885 815 757 576 545 868 886
month-on-month change 94 -37 -79 -226 14 86 11 -29 -244 -46 343 55 -2 8 -157 -174 157 69 -69 -58 -181 -31 323 18
year-on-year change 334 252 172 150 156 121 59 105 -57 -150 -10 -59 -155 -110 -188 -136 8 -9 -89 -118 -55 -40 -60 -97
Asia Pacific 1,322 1,215 822 354 336 662 1,052 1,098 518 386 136 638 778 791 322 178 453 556 958 1,060 681 494 376 664
month-on-month change 392 -108 -393 -468 -17 326 390 47 -580 -132 -250 502 140 13 -469 -144 275 103 402 102 -379 -187 -118 288
year-on-year change 758 854 182 48 -65 203 256 284 -491 -145 -177 -292 -545 -424 -500 -176 117 -106 -94 -39 163 109 240 26
Africa -1,144 -1,188 -1,157 -1,132 -1,227 -1,221 -1,169 -1,155 -1,187 -1,219 -1,187 -1,140 -1,125 -1,168 -1,106 -1,117 -1,104 -1,127 -1,033 -1,053 -1,078 -1,093 -1,115 -1,026
month-on-month change -69 -44 31 24 -94 6 52 14 -33 -32 32 47 15 -42 62 -12 13 -23 95 -20 -25 -15 -22 90
year-on-year change -77 -36 -58 -27 -143 -37 -52 -18 -16 -40 -68 -66 18 20 51 15 123 94 136 102 110 126 72 114

67
 Fuel Oil

Regional Fuel Oil S/D Balances

kb/d Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24
North America 26 -63 69 79 68 52 -45 -5 -16 -33 -75 -68 -73 30 13 -23 -5 3 -27 14 2 -14 -58 -50
month-on-month change -17 -89 133 10 -12 -16 -97 40 -12 -16 -43 8 -5 103 -17 -36 18 8 -31 41 -12 -16 -44 8
year-on-year change 95 37 175 122 125 109 37 49 106 -42 -6 -111 -99 93 -57 -103 -73 -48 18 19 19 19 17 18
Europe 54 38 52 153 240 128 85 91 159 157 109 185 100 115 86 135 248 131 101 119 202 203 132 196
month-on-month change -39 -16 14 102 87 -112 -42 6 68 -2 -49 76 -85 15 -28 49 113 -116 -30 18 83 1 -71 64
year-on-year change -190 -143 31 6 -20 -41 -10 -0 -2 -46 8 91 46 77 35 -18 8 4 16 28 43 46 24 11
Latin America 287 306 356 309 281 297 318 333 300 265 323 332 349 307 339 305 287 300 320 332 304 267 325 329
month-on-month change -80 19 50 -46 -29 16 21 15 -33 -36 58 9 17 -43 32 -34 -19 13 20 12 -28 -37 58 4
year-on-year change -22 40 58 68 59 97 32 32 -10 -58 -38 -35 62 1 -17 -4 6 3 2 -1 4 2 2 -3
Middle East 197 185 361 478 440 219 277 299 317 460 485 394 441 408 459 710 495 408 436 337 355 586 616 494
month-on-month change -30 -12 176 117 -38 -220 58 22 18 143 25 -91 47 -33 51 251 -214 -87 28 -100 18 231 31 -122
year-on-year change -83 -109 -202 -62 29 112 88 165 189 151 -13 167 244 223 98 232 56 189 159 38 38 126 132 101
FSU 593 733 699 613 575 633 660 627 514 487 662 664 715 730 701 661 696 741 735 692 612 597 758 753
month-on-month change -58 140 -33 -86 -38 58 27 -33 -113 -27 175 2 51 15 -29 -40 35 44 -6 -43 -80 -15 161 -5
year-on-year change -157 -73 -18 -15 -28 -45 -66 -62 -133 -179 6 14 122 -3 2 48 121 107 75 65 98 110 96 89
Asia Pacific -1,079 -1,117 -1,154 -912 -1,084 -990 -966 -881 -1,086 -927 -868 -901 -953 -892 -962 -964 -899 -756 -735 -737 -982 -859 -895 -874
month-on-month change 55 -38 -36 241 -172 94 24 85 -205 159 58 -33 -51 61 -70 -2 65 142 22 -2 -245 123 -35 21
year-on-year change -180 -311 -237 -142 -197 21 -80 -125 -197 95 267 233 127 225 192 -51 186 233 231 144 104 67 -26 27
Africa -7 28 10 107 22 15 45 49 39 52 65 80 69 98 132 183 180 166 140 125 96 94 101 92
month-on-month change -49 35 -18 97 -85 -7 30 5 -11 13 13 15 -11 30 33 51 -2 -14 -26 -15 -29 -2 7 -9
year-on-year change -73 -49 -57 13 -38 -42 32 -3 -8 33 55 38 76 71 122 75 158 151 95 75 57 42 37 13

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