Global cement

Global and regional data and insights

2020 updates and forecasts summary

to 2025

The ultimate “intelligence” provider in the global cement sector

cembrgroup.com
CemBR coverage universe

CemBR Forecasts & The CGC™

The largest 90 cement markets

in the world representing
approximately 95% of global
cement consumption.

Detailed data on:

1865 cement producing plants
1350 clinker producing plants
2,300 individual kilns
* All above plant data is ex-China

The ultimate “intelligence” provider in the global cement sector

cembrgroup.com
Historical global cement consumption and the impact of China

Cement consumption in m tonnes CAGR 2010-2020

4500 3.0%
4000 2.4%
2.5% 2.2%
3500 2.0%
2.0%
3000
2500 1.5%
2000
1.0%
1500
1000 0.5%
500 0.0%
0 Global ex-China China Global total
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Global ex-China China 2010 – 2020 additional volumes in m

tonnes
600 80%
65%
China had the lion share of the global cement growth in the last 500
60%
decade. 65% of volume growth was taken by China. However, the 400
35%
influence of China on the global cement sector is currently limited 300 40%
due to minimal interaction between China and the rest of the 200
20%
World. China’s influence in world cement is more evident in the 100
275 504
erection of new cement plants. 0 0%
Global ex-China China
Source: 2010-2020 2010-2020
China – interaction with the Rest of the World

China global interaction - clinker trading Cement trading between

China global interaction - trading as a
%ge of total exports 40.0 China and the rest of the
35.0 World has been declining
7.0%
30.0 to meaningless levels.
6.0% 25.0
5.0% 20.0
4.0% 15.0
Clinker imports into China
3.0% 10.0 have been increasing in
2.0% 5.0 the last four years, as
1.0% 0.0 coastal Chinese capacity
0.0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 is inadequate.
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 China imports China exports
Five industries account
for almost the entire
clinker imports into China:
Imported clinker into China in m tonnes - 2020 %age of capacity in international hands
Indonesia, Japan,
25% Thailand, South Korea,
20%
20% Vietnam.
11.0
15% 13%
Presence of major
18.6 10% international companies
3.8 4% in these industries is
5%
0% 0% limited.
0%
Vietnam Indonesia Others Indonesia Vietnam Japan South Thailand
Source:
Korea
Global cement data 2010 – 2020 & 2020 manufacturing data

Cement consumption
CAGR (2010-2020)
Manufacturing data 2020 incl. China

Number of cement plants 5,023

Cement capacity (MT) 6,605

Cement capacity growth rate (CAGR 10yr) 3.6%

Cement utilisation rate (%) - Global 60%

Cement utilisation rate (%) - ex-China 57%

Regional cement capacity & utilisation

6,000 70%
65% 5,048
5,000 62% 65%
61%
4,000 57% 60%
54%
3,000 51% 55%
50%
2,000 1,248 50%

1,000 385 515 45%

234 177 246
0 40%

AMERICAS

SUB-SAHARAN
ASIA & OCEANIA

ASIA & OCEANIA

& THE GULF

EASTERN EUROPE

WESTERN
& CENTRAL ASIA

EUROPE
with CHINA

MENA

AFRICA
ex-CHINA
Legend
CEMENT MILLING CAPACITY (MT)
CEMENT UTILISATION RATE (%)
Source: NB: Chinese cement capacity and plants is an estimate for
2020 only. No detailed record of cement plants in China
exists in CemBR’s databases.
Global cement data – forecasts to 2025
Global ex-China 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F

Cement consumption (MT) 1,606 1,549 1,648 1,698 1,744 1,790 1,836

Cement consumption forecast Consumption growth rate (%) 0.2% -3.5% 6.4% 3.0% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6%
CAGR (2020A-2025E) Consumption per capita (KG) 300 286 301 307 313 318 323

Cement supply (MT) 2,758 2,805 2,885 2,924 2,987 3,047 3,060

DCUF™ (%) 58% 55% 57% 58% 58% 59% 60%

Excess supply (MT) 1,151 1,256 1,237 1,226 1,243 1,257 1,224

NB: DCUF™ stands for Domestic Capacity Utilisation Factor. This is the
ratio of domestic consumption divided by domestic capacity of cement.
In other words, there is no allowance for international trading (imports
and exports are excluded). This metric indicates the propensity of a
market to import/export cement. It is expressed in percentage.

X > 8%
6% < X < 8%
4% < X < 6%
2% < X < 4%
0% < X < 2%
Source:
Per capita comparisons – 2020

Average regional per capita in KG - 2020

1800
Average global per
700
1600
600
608
capita excluding
1400 500 China at around 286
403
400
286 303
Kg.
1200 300 265
177
200
1000
100
800 0 Average global per
SUB
SAHARAN
ASIA
PACIFIC ex
AMERICAS WESTERN
EUROPE
EASTER
EUROPE
MENA AND
THE GULF
capita including
600
AFRICA China CENTRAL
ASIA
China at around 576
400 Kg.
200

0
Sub Saharan has the
Tanzania

Croatia

Romania
Ethiopia

Zambia
Nigeria

Gabon
Namibia

Indonesia

Saudi Arabia
Uganda

South Africa
Panama
Angola

Mozambique

Ghana

Estonia
Global excl. China

Morocco

Georgia
South Korea

China
Cameroon

Argentina

Peru

Czech Republic
Slovenia
Slovakia

Kazakhstan
Senegal

Turkey
Global inlc. China

Kuwait
Kenya

Ivory Coast

Vietnam
Philippines

lowest and MENA &

The Gulf the highest
per capita (ex-China)
Very low per capita Low per capita Average per capita High per capita Very high per
capita

Source:
CemBR Region: Americas

Region 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F Cement consumption per capita
in Kg (2025F)
Cement consumption (MT) 259 261 278 283 287 291 295

Consumption growth rate (%) 0.6% 0.9% 6.5% 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% Canada
282
Consumption per capita (KG) 286 286 302 305 308 310 312

Cement supply (MT) 387 385 392 398 399 402 405 USA
328
DCUF™ (%) 67% 68% 71% 71% 72% 72% 73%
Panama
Excess supply (MT) 128 124 114 114 112 111 109 Mexico
284
332
Sub-region 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F Colombia
Guatemala 271
CENTRAL AMERICA DCUF™ (%) 51% 44% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 198
Costa Rica
NORTH AMERICA DCUF™ (%) 76% 78% 80% 80% 81% 82% 83% 223

SOUTH AMERICA DCUF™ (%) 58% 58% 63% 63% 64% 64% 64% Ecuador
236
Peru
Sub-regions and countries: North America: Canada, Mexico, USA. Central America: Costa Rica, 422 Brazil
Guatemala, Panama. South America: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru 313
Bolivia
311

This is an excerpt from CemBR Forecasts. A 232 page report with all regions and the 60 largest Chile Argentina
240 251
markets in the world.

Source:
Regional consumption and supply growth 2020 – 2025
Consumption growth - 2020 =100 Capacity growth - 2020 =100
125%
120%

120%
115%
115%
110%
110%
105%
105%

100% 100%

95% 95%
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

AMERICAS ASIA PACIFIC ex China AMERICAS ASIA PACIFIC ex China

EASTER EUROPE CENTRAL ASIA MENA AND THE GULF EASTER EUROPE CENTRAL ASIA MENA AND THE GULF
SUB SAHARAN AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE SUB SAHARAN AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE

Asia Pacific (ex-China) and Sub Saharan Africa are projected to have the highest consumption
growth 2020 – 2025. China’s growth is expected more subdued.

The highest capacity growth is expected in Sub Saharan Africa, whereas Western Europe’s cement
supply is likely to decline (this reflects the already known closures – there may be some more
significant closures due to EU ETS Phase IV).
Source:
Regional consumption and supply growth 2020 – 2025, resultant Utilisation rates (DCUF™)
Consumption and supply CAGR 2020-2025 DCUF™ 2020-2025
5.0%
4.6% 115%
4.3%

4.0% 110%
3.4%

3.0% 105%
2.5% 2.5% 2.4%

2.0% 100%
2.0% 1.8%

1.2%
1.0% 95%
1.0% 0.7%

90%
0.0% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
AMERICAS ASIA PACIFIC ex EASTER EUROPE MENA AND THE SUB SAHARAN WESTERN
AMERICAS ASIA PACIFIC ex China
China CENTRAL ASIA GULF AFRICA EUROPE
-0.4%
EASTER EUROPE CENTRAL ASIA MENA AND THE GULF
-1.0%
SUB SAHARAN AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE
Consumption 2020-2025 CAGR Supply 2020-2025 CAGR

Western Europe is expected to show the strongest growth in DCUF™, with Asia Pacific (ex-China)
following closely.

All regions are expected to show an increase in DCUF™, but Sub Saharan Africa exhibits the lowest
Source: growth due to significant new capacity additions.
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